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我们还没真正意识到,对前沿级别智能的需求是无限的。
We have not yet appreciated the unbounded demand for, call it, frontier levels of intelligence.
造成这种差异的部分原因,可能是中国公司愿意对前沿模型进行大规模蒸馏。
Part of the driver of the difference is probably the willingness of Chinese companies to do scale distillation of the frontier models.
如果你自己没法构建前沿模型,那接下来更好的办法,就是把它蒸馏出来,再提供出去。
If you can't build Frontier Models yourself, okay, maybe the next best approach is to distill them and offer them up.
每一轮融资,我们其实都主动选择了比能拿到的更低的估值。
Every one of our rounds, we actually guided to and took a lower price than we could have.
我们公司里最有成效的一些员工,才二十二三岁,完全被AI重塑了思维。
Some of our most effective employees at the entire company are 22 or 23 years old and have been completely AI pilled.
我们彻底改革了工程团队的面试流程。
We completely changed our engineering interview process.
当红杉的帕特·格雷迪和Greenoaks的尼尔·梅杰告诉你某人特别出众时,那这话是有分量的。
When Pat Grady at Sequoia and Neil Major at Greenoaks tell you someone is special, well, it kinda means something.
今天坐在这里的,是Sierra的联合创始人克莱·巴沃,这家公司是全球增长最快的AI企业之一。
Clay Bavor joining me in the hot seat, cofounder of Sierra, one of the fastest growing AI companies in the world.
Sierra 已经融资超过十五亿美元。
Sierra has raised more than 1 and a half billion.
他们服务着全球一些最大的企业,估值接近一千六百亿美元,客户覆盖了全球
They work with some of the biggest companies in the world, and they're valued at almost $16,000,000,000, and they work with 40% of the
《财富》五百强中的百分之四十。
Fortune fifty.
但在创办 Sierra 之前,Clay 在谷歌待了整整十八年,参与过不少了不起的项目。
But before Sierra, Clay spent an incredible eighteen years at Google where he worked on some pretty cool projects.
比如 Google Labs,还有 Google Workspace、Gmail、Google Drive 和 Google Photos。
Google Labs, naming one, Google Workspace, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Photos.
天啊,Clay 在谷歌到底有没有没碰过的项目?
Jesus, is there anything Clay didn't work on at Google?
而且他人也特别棒。
On top of that, he's just an awesome dude.
幸运的是,我们有机会在伦敦当面聊了聊。
Luckily, we had a chance to do it in person in London.
这期节目太精彩了,我超期待听到你们的反馈和想法。
This was so much fun, and I can't wait to hear your thoughts and feedback on this episode.
但在开始今天的正题之前,我要特别提一下一家让我真正惊艳、一直密切关注的公司——Rox。
But before we dive into the show today, a quick shout out to a company I've been genuinely blown away by and have been tracking closely, Rox.
我一直在观察这个团队,他们推进的速度,还有他们聚集的AI应用人才水平,真的让人佩服。
I've been watching this team closely, and the speed they're operating at and the level of applied AI talent they've assembled, it's honestly remarkable.
Rox正在为全球2000强企业打造营收代理,直接接入你的数据仓库和CRM系统,短短90天就能带来董事会级别的投资回报。
Rocks is pioneering revenue agents for the global 2,000, plugged into your data warehouse and CRM, and delivering board level ROI in just ninety days.
这些销售和营收代理能全程处理大型企业的销售流程,从前期调研、风险评估,到客户触达和商机管理,全都包了。
These sales and revenue agents handle the end to end sales process for large enterprises from research prep to deal risk, outreach, and opportunity management.
这样一来,销售人员就能把更多时间花在客户身上,而不是埋头对付各种工具。
So sellers spend more time with customers and less time in tools.
这可不是又一个效率类应用。
This isn't another productivity app.
天哪,我们受够这类应用了。
Christ, we've all had enough of those.
Rocks为销售团队提供了一个统一的界面,基于你内外部数据构建的知识图谱,整合了整个增长技术栈。
Rocks gives reps a single interface on top of their GTM stack powered by a knowledge graph across your internal and external data.
如果你想提升销售代表的效率、增加人均收入、简化工具体系,就去rocks.com/signup试试吧。
So if you wanna boost AE productivity, increase revenue per rep, and consolidate your stack, try rocks at rocks.com slash sign up.
当Rocks在帮你管理销售流程时,Framer则在帮你搭建网站。
While Rocks runs your sales pipeline, Framer runs your website.
一个网站应该推动业务增长,而不是拖后腿。
A website should help your business grow, not slow it down.
如果你更新公司官网的过程比应该的还要麻烦,那Framer就是你一直在找的捷径。
If updates to your.com feel harder than they should, Framer is the shortcut you've been looking for.
Framer是一个企业级的无代码建站工具,操作体验就像你团队最爱的设计软件,Perplexity、Miro、Mixpanel这些公司都在用它提速。
Framer is an enterprise grade, no code website builder that works like your team's favorite design tool and is used by companies like Perplexity, Miro, Mixpanel to move faster.
设计师和市场人员可以完全掌控网站,支持实时协作,内置强大的SEO内容管理系统,还有集成A/B测试的高级数据分析功能。
Designers and marketers can fully own the site with real time collaboration, a robust CMS built for SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated AB testing.
你做的不只是发布页面,更是不断优化那些真正起作用的部分。
So you're not just shipping pages, but you're maximizing what works.
当你准备发布时,一键操作,几秒钟内就能上线。
And when you're ready to ship, changes go live in seconds with one click.
发布。
Publish.
完全不需要依赖技术团队。
Without relying on engineering.
此外,Framer 专为大规模应用打造,提供高端托管、企业级安全和 99.99% 的服务可用性保障。
Plus, Frame is built for scale with premium hosting, enterprise grade security, and 99.99% uptime SLAs.
无论你是想上线新网站、测试几个落地页,还是迁移整个官网,Framer 都为初创公司、成长型企业和大型企业提供了相应方案,帮你快速从想法变成上线的网站。
Whether you want to launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate yourfull.com, Framer has programs for startups, scale ups, and large enterprises to make going from idea to live site fast.
想了解如何让你的官网发挥更大价值?联系 Framer 专家,或者今天就免费开始搭建,访问 framer.com/20vc 享受 30% 折扣。
Learn how you can get more out of your.com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/ 20 vc for 30% off.
Framer Pro 年度计划享 30% 折扣。
30% off a Framer Pro annual plan.
访问 framer.com/20vc,立享 30% 折扣。
That's framer.com/20vc for 30% off.
framer.com/20vc
Framer.com/20vc.
规则和限制可能适用。
Rules and restrictions may apply.
Framer 帮助你的网站提升转化,而 Superhuman GO 让你的收件箱运转更快。
While Framer helps your website convert, Superhuman GO helps your inbox move faster.
我每周做三期这个节目。
I do this show three times a week.
这意味着三轮调研、三轮准备、三轮跟进,中间还有四百多项其他事情。
That means three sets of research, three sets of prep, three sets of follow-up, and about 400 other things in between.
我的收件箱从不休息,我其实也一样,这从我脸上的皱纹就能看出来,但我以前光是跟上进度就得开着十几个标签页。
My inbox doesn't sleep and neither do I really, which shows in my wrinkled face, but I was juggling a dozen tabs just to keep up.
再开个窗口,复制这个,粘贴那个,转眼就找不到北了。
Another window, copy this, paste that, lose your place entirely.
所以我才开始用 Superhuman GO。
That is why I started using Superhuman Go.
它是个随时在线的AI聊天助手,需要的时候就在那儿。
It's an AI chat that's always there when you need it.
早就了解我正在忙什么了。
Already up to speed on what I am doing.
上星期二,直播前两分钟,我还有个40条消息的对话没看。
Last Tuesday, two minutes before I went live, I had a 40 message thread I hadn't read.
我就在收件箱里让Go给我总结一下。
I asked Go to summarize it right there in my inbox.
不用开新标签页。
No new tab.
不用切换应用。
No switching apps.
由Grammarly团队打造,Superhuman Go直接集成在你常用的工具和网站里。
From the makers of Grammarly, Superhuman Go works inside the tools and sites you already use.
你的浏览器、收件箱、文档,全都支持。
Your browser, your inbox, your docs.
它帮你处理那些重复性的工作,让你专心做只有你能完成的事。
It handles the repetitive stuff so you can focus on the work only you can do.
AI 是和你配合,而不是压着你。
AI that works with you, not on top of you.
Superhuman GO 跟得上你的节奏,让你能稳步前进。
Superhuman GO keeps up so you can move forward.
了解更多,请访问 superhuman.com。
Find out more at superhuman.com.
您已到达目的地。
You have now arrived at your destination.
Clay,我真为这个感到兴奋,老兄。
Clay, I am so excited for this, dude.
我刚让你下楼去了。
I I sent you downstairs.
我们做了很多节目。
We do a lot of shows.
我经常在节目开始前和人聊天。
I often speak to people before a show.
当我跟GV的尼尔·梅塔、拉维·古普塔和桑吉恩交谈时,听到他们对我的评价,说实话,那真是我听过最令人印象深刻的推荐了。
When I speak to Neil Mehta, Ravi Gupta, and Sanguine at GV, and I hear what I hear, honestly, they were some of the most astounding references I've had.
谢谢你们来参加。
So thank you for joining me.
听到这些真让人开心。
Oh, it's nice to hear.
不,能来才是我的荣幸。
No, pleasure to be here.
谢谢你邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
我是说,他们可是花了大价钱来做推广的,所以你懂的,得提一下赞助商。
No, I mean, listen, they paid a lot to be featured, so you know, you gotta drop a sponsor.
他们确实很棒。
They are great.
能和这些家伙一起工作,我真的很感激。
So grateful to be working with each one of those guys.
只花了五亿美元,所以我想先说,我听说布雷特以前好几次都想请你合作创业。
It only cost $500,000,000 So I want to start with, I heard that Brett tried to hire you or start a company with you several times before.
西耶拉?
Sierra?
对。
Yeah.
为什么这次就成功了?
Why third time lucky?
为什么十八年之后,偏偏是第三次才成?
Why after eighteen No, third time's a charm?
对。
Yeah.
你在谷歌待了十八年,怎么现在才决定离开?
Why after eighteen years at Google, were you like, Uh-huh, now?
是的。
Yeah.
布雷特和我二十年前就认识了。
So Brett and I met twenty years ago.
我们俩都是从谷歌的初级产品管理项目起步的。
We both started our careers in the associate product management program at Google.
他是第一期的,我是第三期的。
He was class one, I was class three.
我们是在一个共同负责的项目里认识的,聊得来,之后就一直保持联系,主要靠一个每月一次的扑克局——当然,一年真能玩上两三次就不错了,算不上每月都聚,但一直想合作,也差点儿成过好几次。
We met in the context of some kind of shared project that we were assigned to and kind of hit it off and ended up staying in touch socially through mostly a monthly poker group that, you know, a good year might play two or three times, so not quite monthly, and had always wanted to work together, and almost did a couple times.
我记得布雷特离开谷歌的时候,不管是去FriendFeed还是Quip,都试着拉我一起走。
I think when Brett left, I can't remember if it was for FriendFeed or Quip, tried to get me to join that.
简短来说,有两个原因。
The short answer is, you know, twofold.
第一,我真的很享受在谷歌的时光。
One, I just loved my time at Google.
从文化上来说,那是我自己的选择。
Culturally, it was me.
那几年我学到的东西,远远超出了我当初的想象。
I learned more than I can ever imagine having learned in in those years.
和我共事的人全都非同寻常,我遇到的几位经理和领导都愿意信任我,给我远超我能力的责任,让我参与真正令人着迷的项目。
The people were so extraordinary to work with, and I had a series of managers and leaders I got to work with who took bets on me, gave me, on paper at least, more responsibility than I deserved, and got to work on just truly fascinating things.
所以我当时特别开心,全情投入,无论是个人还是职业上都在不断成长。
And so, I was just incredibly happy and engaged and growing as a person and professional.
到了2022年底,各种机会突然凑到了一起,我觉得这种时机可能这辈子都不会再出现了。
And then in late twenty two, kind of the planets aligned in a way that I didn't think that they would probably align again.
我一直想创办一家公司。
I'd always wanted to start a company.
我13岁的时候就开过一家很小的公司,从那时起就一直打算再创办一家。
I started a very modest company when I was 13 years old and always thought I would start another.
如果你要和别人一起创业,那对方的能力和人品都必须顶尖,而且时机也得刚刚好。
And if you're going to start a company with someone, you want to make sure that they're excellent in competence and in character, then that the timing is right.
我们当时就意识到,语言模型肯定会成为一股大势。
And we could see that language models were going to be a thing.
要说什么时候小公司最容易翻身,那肯定是在新技术刚冒头的时候,机会全在那边。
And if ever, you know, there's a time when the proverbial deck of cards are shuffled in the favor of smaller companies, it's when you're at the advent of the new technology.
在谷歌过得挺开心,时机也刚好到了,我就毅然跳了出去。
So happy at Google, planet's finally aligned, and took the leap.
现在算起来,我们创业大概三年了。
And we're, I don't know, three years in change in now.
在谷歌待了十八年,这可真不是一般的经历。
Eighteen years at Google is one hell of a stint.
是啊。
Yeah.
我最早是从大学开始算的。
Well, I started counting in colleges.
天哪,我在那儿待过一整个大学,两个大学,三个大学,四个大学。
Gosh, I've been there one college, two colleges, three colleges, four colleges.
是的,这是一段
Yeah, it's a
很长,甚至更让人害怕。
long It's even more terrifying.
这是一场漫长的旅程。
It's a long run.
基于这一点,我想问你一个问题,虽然有点难听,你也可以责备我——从那段经历中,你带去Sierra的最重要收获是什么?又留下了什么?
My question to you on the back of that is, and it's a terrible question, you can chastise me for it, what are your single biggest takeaways from that experience that you took with you to Sierra, and what did you leave behind?
这是个非常有意思的问题。
It's such an interesting question.
当然,一个从两三个人、到十个人、再到一百人的企业软件公司,和我离开谷歌时大约十五万人的规模,完全是两回事。
Of course, the scale of a, you know, two and then 10 and then 100 person enterprise software company is very different from, I think when I left Google, was roughly 150,000 people.
我确实带了一些东西过来。
Things that I've definitely brought with me.
第一,就是愿意根据需要,深入到技术栈的最底层,去构建你想要的服务和产品。
Number one is a willingness to invest as far down the technology stack as you need in order to build the service and product that you want.
谷歌从早期就开始, famously 自己搭建了数据中心或者集群架构,是第一个大规模使用通用硬件的公司。
Google, I think from the early days, famously built its own, if not data centers, cluster architectures, and they were the first really to use commodity hardware.
这就要求他们开发全新的分布式系统,用于服务和数据存储等等。
That required building novel distributed systems for serving and data storage and so on.
所以,早在2023年4月我们公司刚成立时,我们就看出,智能代理迟早会成为主流。
And so, we could see that language models as early as, you know, April '23 when we started the company, that agents were going to be a thing.
那时候,还没人整天把‘代理’挂在嘴边。
This was before all anyone wanted to talk about was agents.
我们意识到,这事儿理论上是能做成的。
And we realized, okay, this should be possible.
虽然现在还做不到,但我们必须从零开始,发明出构建这些系统的框架和架构。
It's not yet possible, but we're going have to invent frameworks for building these things, our own architectures really from scratch.
所以,我们最初的研究负责人,就是那位真正写过基于语言模型的智能代理论文——也就是React论文——的普林斯顿教授。
So, actually, first founding head of research was the Princeton professor who literally wrote the paper on language model based agents, the React paper.
于是,我们自己动手发明了这些技术。
And so, we invented.
我们往更底层的方向推进了,比当时很多公司愿意走的还要远。
We invented and went further down the stack than I think some companies at that point would have been willing to.
我们并没有自己做预训练。
And we're not doing our own pre training.
这部分高额的投入,我们留给那些规模更大的实验室和公司去做。
We'll leave the capital expense there to the labs larger companies.
在进入第二点之前,
Before we move to two,
我可以问一下,你们有考虑过这个吗?
can I ask, did you consider that?
我完全理解你们想掌握全部技术的意愿。
Because I completely understand the desire to own as much as possible.
是的。
Yeah.
你们有考虑过自己训练模型吗?
Did you consider training your own models?
那你们
And what
当时是怎么考虑的,为什么没这么做?
was the thought process around not?
这个问题问得好。
That's a great question.
我们确实短暂考虑过,但后来放弃了。
We did briefly and discarded it.
回想一下当时的情况,也就是2022年底到2023年初,作为一家AI初创公司,如果你不自己做预训练、不自己构建基础模型,那你在业界几乎没什么存在感。
If you recall at the time, so late twenty two, early twenty three, as a startup in AI, you were kind of nobody if you weren't doing your own pre training and building your own foundation models.
虽然这些公司里有很多优秀的人才,能做出有个性、有特色的产品,但创建那些本质上就是一堆极易过期的浮点数模型,所需的持续资本投入实在太高了。
Character, inflection, adapt, great people at these companies, but the capital expense, the ongoing capital expense to create what is effectively a highly perishable bag of floating point numbers.
这种模式除了少数几家公司能玩得起,对绝大多数公司来说根本行不通。
Just doesn't work for any but a small number of companies.
所以我们的考量是,对于那些资本密集度极高的领域……
And so our calculus was for areas that are deeply capital intensive.
我们怎么才能搭上实验室和云巨头们投资的顺风车?
How do we slipstream behind the investments that the labs, that the hyperscalers are making?
尽可能用现成的方案,同时依然愿意在深层技术上做定制开发。
Take as much as we can off the shelf while still being willing to engineer more deeply.
现在我们有一套自己的专有微调模型,但这些模型都是基于开源权重模型微调出来的。
So, today we have a set of our own proprietary fine tuned models, but these are fine tunes on top of open weights models.
我们没必要从头开始,搞那种超大规模集群的训练。
So, we're not going, you know, all the way down to the, you know, mega cluster training runs.
重要的是你要掌握自己的方向,别给自己编故事,觉得非得做到比实际需要更远才行。
And I think it's important that you are in control of your own destiny enough and that you don't tell yourself a story that you need to go further than you actually need to do.
未来会是开源模型根据企业需求做微调吗?
Is the future open models fine tuned to specific company needs?
如果真是这样,而前沿模型又太贵,那这会不会成为前沿模型的利空?
And if that is the future, with the realization that Frontier Models are too expensive, is that a bear case for Frontier Models?
我觉得这没那么简单。
I think it's a lot more complicated than that.
如果你问任何一家软件公司,你们想不想提升你们的资深或首席工程师的级别?
If you asked any software company, Would you like to upgrade your staff principal or distinguished level software engineers?
是还是不是?
Yes or no.
一百家公司会全部说,这听起来确实很棒。
100 out of 100 would say, Yeah, that sounds pretty great.
所以,我觉得我们还没真正意识到,对前沿级别智能的需求是无限的。
So, I think we have not yet appreciated the unbounded demand for, call it, Frontier levels of intelligence.
但并不是每个领域都需要这种能力。
And now you don't need that in every domain.
比如我们自己,我们为公司开发AI来服务客户。
For instance, in our own, right, we build AIs for companies to interact with their customers.
你不需要像神话那样的模型来处理退换货。
You don't need Mythos to return a pair of shoes.
普通水平就足够了。
Like you're good.
你是想把这个事做好吗?
It's like, you want to do that well?
但我们确实已经积累了一些能力,足以应付这类任务。
But we've got some capability overhang, so to speak, for doing something like that.
在编程、材料科学、法律这些领域,风险高、复杂度大,我认为对更高水平智能的需求会持续增长,也就是前沿模型的需求。
But in a range of domains, coding, certainly, material science, legal, right, where the stakes are very high, there's a high degree of complexity, I think we're going to see effectively unbounded demand for greater levels of intelligence and therefore the Frontier Models.
话说回来,现在像GPT-4这样的模型,到了2023年3月到5月时还能胜任一些任务,如今同等智能水平的token成本已经降到原来的三百分之一了。
That said, there will be an assembly line of cool, GPT-four, which in March, April, May 2023 was good enough to do some set of things is now one three hundredth the cost for an intelligence equivalent token.
所以,未来会有一条流水线,把曾经属于前沿的模型拿来,针对特定任务做开源权重调整和微调。
And so, you'll have some assembly line of taking models that were once at the Frontier to perform certain workloads and then build open weights, fine tune models for those.
我觉得企业最终会根据具体任务,灵活搭配使用这些不同层级的模型。
And I think you'll end up with companies using both mixing and matching them depending on the task at hand.
随着开源模型越来越强大,这不意味着前沿模型要解决的问题反而越来越难了吗?
As we see open become more and more advanced, does that not mean the problem set for Frontier Models becomes more and more challenging?
就像你说的,开源模型进步太快了,现在几乎能搞定大部分任务。
As you said, we've seen the progression of Open so much that actually they can do the majority.
我明白,像应对气候变化、癌症治疗和新材料这些领域,确实需要。
It's like, I get it for solving climate change, cancer treatments, and materials.
但事实上,目前企业里有多少任务已经能用开源模型完成了?
But actually, for the majority, what percent of enterprise tasks can be done with Open today?
如果你看看现在企业里有多少任务是完全自动化的,那几乎可以忽略不计,对吧?
Well, I think if you look at what percent of enterprise tasks are completely automated today, it's a rounding error, right?
比例非常低。
It's very low.
那这是模型能力的问题吗?
So, is that a model gap?
还是说,是技术在公司内部推广得不够?
Is that diffusing the technology into the company?
又或者是应用层的缺口?
Is that an application layer gap?
我觉得这几个方面都有关系。
I think it's probably all of these.
你说得对,随着开源模型能力越来越强,它们能做的事情确实越来越多。
You're obviously correct that as the open weights models become more capable, the set of things they can do grows larger.
在其他条件相同的情况下,如果开源模型便宜很多,那我们还需要动用前沿模型的场景就会越来越少。
The set of things where, all else being equal, if they're much less expensive, that you would want to point a Frontier model becomes smaller.
但我认为,我们还没真正意识到,对前沿智能的需求上限到底能有多高。
But again, I think we're not imagining just how high the ceiling is in terms of demand for Frontier intelligence.
比如创新、发现、开发新产品、打造新服务。
Invention, discovery, building new products, building new services.
当你拥有一个能24小时不停歇地进行创造、构建和发现的智能体时,很难想象该怎么用它,又能用多少。
I think it's hard to get your mind around when you have intelligence that can work around the clock to invent, to build, to discover how you would use that and how much of it you could use.
你能帮我理清楚一下吗?
Can you help me understand?
我们之前看令牌经济的时候,以为聊天场景的令牌成本会随着时间下降。
When we look at token economics, we thought with chat, tokens over time would go down in cost.
但现在从纯聊天转向聊天加智能体、智能体经济的模式,令牌成本反而在上升,不是下降。
And with the movement from pure chat to chat and agents and agent economy based, we're seeing token costs increase, not decrease.
你觉得随着使用形式的演变,令牌成本会怎么变化?
How do we see the evolution of token costs with the evolving formats, do you think?
是的。
Yeah.
你漏掉了一点,现在大量令牌的消耗其实是来自推理型模型,对吧?
You missed one thing in there, which is a large amount of token use is driven by reasoning models now, right?
自己在心里默默思考。
Thinking out loud to themselves.
我觉得过去几年里最被低估的一个进展,就是OpenAI在2024年底推出的那个模型。你还记得吗?当时有个图表显示,测试时的计算量、推理时长和模型表现之间的关系,曲线一路持续向上攀升。
And I think actually one of the most underrated developments of the past few years was the one model from OpenAI in late twenty twenty four, where if you recall, there was a chart that showed, okay, test time compute or amount of inference done, amount of thinking out loud and performance, and it just keeps going up into the right.
这是对数增长,所以后期会逐渐趋于平缓。
It's logarithmic, so it starts to level out.
但它清楚地表明,只要给足时间和算力,模型就能变得更聪明。
But what it effectively demonstrated is if you have enough time and compute, the model will be that much smarter.
所以说到令牌经济的走向,我觉得背后有好多因素在共同作用。
So, as for what happens with token economics, I think there are many drivers underneath it.
一方面,未来会出现能以同等成本生成更多令牌的硬件。
One is you're going to end up with hardware that is able to produce more tokens of at equivalent cost.
所以,输入成本说白了会下降。
And so, kind of the cost of the inputs, so to speak, will go down.
我们之前提到过,我觉得某些工作负载会逐渐迁移到开源权重模型上。
We talked about, I think you'll have this migration of certain workloads to open weights models.
我觉得一个很难预测的因素,会影响开源模型和前沿模型,那就是算力的可得性。
I think one of the drivers that's hard to predict how will play out across both the open weights models and the frontier models is just the availability of compute.
这说到底就是经典的经济学原理。
And, you know, it's classic economics.
是微观经济学的基础知识。
It's microeconomics 101.
如果对前沿智能或运行开源模型所需的GPU需求无限增长,而限制因素只是你手上有多少Blackwell和H100芯片,那令牌的成本就会有个下限——因为你得付电费,得付算力的钱。
Supply, demand, if you have unbounded demand for frontier level intelligence, or GPUs to run open weights models and the rate limiter is the, you know, number of Blackwells and H100s you have, you end up with kind of a floor on the cost of tokens because you've got to pay for the energy, you've got to pay for the compute.
前几天我们请了Nebius的创始人做客,他说如果算力供应增加十倍,他们一天之内还是能卖光。
We had the founder of Nebius on the show the other day, and he said that if a 10x supply, they could still sell out in a day.
我同意这个观点。
I believe that.
我也这么认为。
I believe that.
这正好说明了,开放权重模型会更便宜,因为你避开了托管前沿模型那层额外的利润成本。
And I think that makes the point, which is, Okay, open weights models will be cheaper because you're kind of avoiding some of the margin stack in, you know, the hosted Frontier Models.
但关键的输入到底是什么?
Okay, but what is the fundamental input?
是GPU的算力和电力,这些依然受限。
It's GPU capacity, it's power, that's still constrained.
能稍微缓解这个问题的一点是,把模型跑在本地。
One thing that could slightly alleviate that is actually running models locally.
有人说,这可能是未来的趋势。
People say that it could be the future.
在你那堆Mac mini上跑?
On your cluster of Mac minis or whatever?
是的
Yeah.
或者甚至直接在手机上运行。
Or on on or even on device on phones.
我不太明白,当我们谈论全天候24小时在线的AI时。
I don't quite understand that when we think about always on AI twenty four hours a day.
本地运行这么多东西,负担太重了。
That's an awful lot to run locally.
这只是一个空想,还是说它真能缓解服务器端的压力?
Is it a pipe dream, or do we think that's actually a reality that would alleviate the server side challenge?
这肯定缓解不了。
Oh, it certainly wouldn't alleviate it.
我觉得它能让一些消费类应用变得更好。
I think it will make some consumer applications much better.
但现实是,训练需要拍级甚至艾级的算力,推理时也需要快速调用大量计算资源,而手机的散热根本扛不住。
But, I mean, the reality is you need petaflops, exaflops of compute, certainly for training, and you want a whole bunch of compute quickly at inference time, and you just run into thermal limits on your phone.
我觉得挺让人震惊的,现在我们每个人口袋里都揣着一台超级计算机。
I do think it is shocking that we're all carrying around in our pockets, you know, hypercomputers these days.
它们会变得更好吗?
And will they get better?
肯定会。
Yes.
你觉得未来手机和电脑上会搭载专门优化过的语言模型硬件吗?
Will you have language model optimized hardware rolling out our phones, in our computers?
肯定会。
Yes.
我可以想象一种家用设备,插上电源,就能随时调用大量算力,满足家里的各种需求。
I can see a sort of home appliance, which is, you know, you plug into the mains and you get, you know, on demand access to a whole bunch of compute for things in your home.
也许这样能缓解一部分压力。
And maybe that helps alleviate some of it.
但说到像Frontier这样的超大规模任务,还是得去专门的地方才行。
Certainly for Frontier workloads, though, it's like there's one place you can go to for that.
那就是数据中心里一整排的TPU或GPU。
And it is a giant rack of TPUs or GPUs in a data center somewhere.
我们之前聊过前沿领域和开放领域的问题。
We spoke about kind of Frontier versus Open.
在前沿领域,美国显然主要是OpenAI和Anthropic这两个巨头在主导。
Frontier, obviously, you have OpenAI and Anthropic in The US who are the dominant leaders at Frontiers.
还有我的母校和谷歌。
And my alma mater and Google.
当然还有谷歌。
And Google, of course.
我们之前请过Demes做客节目。
We had Demes on the show.
太厉害了,真的太厉害了。
Incredible, incredible.
我特别喜欢Demes。
I love Demes.
我也特别喜欢Demes。
I love Demes too.
他也是我见过最谦逊的领导者之一。
Also one of the most humble leaders I've ever met.
对此我完全同意。
So I absolutely agree there.
美国在开放领域已经落后了。
Open in The US has lagged behind.
我们看到中国的模型非常先进,令人印象深刻。
We see Chinese models being unbelievably advanced and impressive.
你觉得美国的开放生态面临很大挑战吗?这让你担心吗?
Do you agree that we have a challenging open ecosystem in The US, and does that worry you?
中美差异的一个原因,可能是中国企业更愿意对实验室的前沿模型进行规模化的蒸馏。
Part of the driver of the difference is probably the willingness of Chinese companies to do scale distillation of the Frontier Models from the labs.
我的感觉是,很多来自中国的开源模型,其实都源自美国的训练成果。
My impression is many of the models, the open weights models coming from China are derived from training runs done in The US.
我觉得,如果美国的实验室和超大规模云服务商在开发前沿模型,那很自然就会产生一个问题:他们会不会自己跟自己竞争,通过发布功能相近的开源模型来压低价格。
I think if you have The US based labs and hyperscalers developing the Frontier Models, there's an obvious, you know, like are they going to compete with themselves and drive price pressure on the Frontier Models by developing and releasing open weights models that are of similar capability.
如果是我来经营这家公司,我不会这么做。
If I was running that business, that's not something I would do.
所以,如果你自己没法造出前沿模型,那接下来最好的办法就是做蒸馏,把它们优化后再提供出来。
So, if you can't build Frontier Models yourself, okay, maybe the next best approach is to distill them and offer them up.
我认为这大概就是造成差异的主要原因。
I think that's probably the main driver of the difference.
我得问一下,你之前提到企业合作像一场团队运动,我特别认同这一点。
I have to ask, you mentioned earlier enterprise being a team sport, love that.
你还提到,谁不希望公司内部有更厉害的软件工程师呢?
And you mentioned earlier about kind of who wouldn't want more advanced software engineers internally.
你提到Lovable昨天宣布实现了5亿美金的年经常性收入,团队却只有149人。
You had Lovable announce yesterday hitting, I think, 500,000,000 ARR with a 149 people.
明天播出的那期节目里,我的一位联合主持人Rory说,如果你是Sierra,根本做不到这一点。
And in a show that comes out tomorrow, Rory, who's one of my cohosts on this kind of weekly show that we do, says, well, if you're Sierra, you can't do that.
我的意思是,正如她提到的,Sierra 是一家企业级公司,团队结构必须不一样。
I mean, as she mentioned Sierra, it's a enterprise business, and you have to have a different structure of the team.
展望未来,团队会不会变得越来越精简,人数越来越少?
When you look at the future of teams, are we seeing a world of dramatically leaner, fewer people in teams?
还是说,这依然高度依赖客户,像 Sierra 这样的企业依然需要庞大的团队?
Or actually, is it still very much dependent on customers, and we will still have very large teams for companies like Sierra with Enterprise.
我觉得整体趋势很明显,就是朝着更小、效率更高的团队发展。
I think the general direction of travel clearly is towards smaller, higher leverage teams.
我们有些软件工程师已经完全依赖 AI 工具,用 Cloud Code、Codecs,还有我们内部叫 Pinecone 的智能代理来推动公司运转,他们估计自己的开发效率提升了三倍到二十倍。
We have software engineers who are completely AI pilled and using Cloud Code, Codecs, our own internal agent we call Pinecone that we used to run much of the company on, they estimate they are between three and twenty times more productive in terms of feature shift.
在软件工程、数据科学、数据分析这些领域,生产力的提升非常明显。
The productivity gains certainly in software engineering and data science, data analysis, and other area, we're seeing it in spades.
但我相信,过一段时间,这种变化会渗透到每一家公司的每一个角落。
But I think in time it will touch all parts of really every company.
所以,这就是大方向。
So, that's the general trend.
像西拉这样的公司,我们主要服务大型企业,客户涵盖了财富500强中的40%。
I think within a company like Sierra, where we serve, in particular, the large enterprise, We work with 40% of the Fortune 50.
我们50%的客户年收入超过10亿美元。
We have 50% of our customers doing over 1,000,000,000 in revenue.
30%的客户年收入超过100亿美元。
We have 30% doing over 10,000,000,000 in revenue.
这些企业往往是全球最复杂、也最受监管的机构。
These are some of the most complex and in cases regulated organizations in the world.
要成功销售并实施我们的产品和解决方案,面对的都是高度个性化的客户。
And to be able to sell and implement our product and solution successfully for organizations which are snowflakes.
因此,要把我们的解决方案成功卖给并部署进大型企业,关键在于深刻理解客户的业务目标和成果,了解他们的技术架构,顺利集成,建立关系,赢得信任——我们不是那种扔下软件就走的供应商,而是真正帮助他们把这项技术渗透到前台、销售、客服、市场等各个部门的合作伙伴。
And so the process of selling, and more importantly, successfully implementing and deploying a solution like ours into the large enterprise is still a lot about deeply understanding our customers' business outcomes and objectives, about understanding their technology stack, integrating with it successfully, building relationships, earning trust to show up, not just as a vendor that throws some software over the wall, but as a true partner in diffusing this technology into, in our case, all of the front office, sales, support, marketing, and so on.
我得好好消化一下你刚才说的这些内容。
I mean, there's so many things for me to unpack there.
我正在疯狂记笔记。
Scribbling furiously.
我得问问,你提到过内部代理 Pinecone。
I have to ask, you mentioned the internal agent Pinecone.
对。
Yeah.
能跟我讲讲它是什么、是怎么开发的、有什么功能吗?
Can you talk to me about what that is, how it was built, what it does?
我对公司如何演变和运作特别感兴趣。
I'm just intrigued to see how companies change and how they operate.
是的。
Yeah.
这是过去六到九个月里,我们公司运营方式最重要的变化之一。
It's one of the more significant developments in how we run the company of the last six or nine months.
我们一开始搭建了所谓的 MCP 网关。
And we began by building what we call our MCP gateway.
这是一个统一的 MCP 服务器,整合了我们公司运营所依赖的所有主要系统和服务。
This is a single MCP server that aggregates all of the main systems and services that we use to run the company.
所以,你可以把这个单一的网关添加到你的云实例、Codex实例,甚至Pinecone里。
And so, you can add this single gateway to your Cloud instance, to your Codex instance, and indeed to Pinecone.
通过其中任何一个代理,你都能获得完整的访问权限——当然,前提是只能查看你自己有权限看的文件,不能看别人的。
And basically, via any one of those agents, full access with the permissions, of course, that you as an individual at the company, can't read someone else's documents, but you can read your own.
你可以查看你自己的Slack消息。
You can read your own Slack messages.
这就像是开了挂一样,对吧?
And it's kind of like having superpowers, right?
你可以全面查询公司里所有公开的信息——无论是Slack消息、演示文稿,还是运营复盘之类的,利用这些信息来更好地思考、做决策、推进工作。
You interrogate, in essence, the entirety of the company, all information that is published, whether it's Slack messages or presentations or operating reviews and so on, and use access to all of that information to better reason, make decisions, get things done.
Pinecone当然也集成了这个MCP网关,但它还专门为Sierra打造了一整套专用系统。
Pinecone, of course, incorporates that MCP gateway, but then is a purpose built harness for all of Sierra.
Pinecone知道自己该怎么构建自己。
Pinecone knows how to build Pinecone.
围绕Pinecone的工程开发,有一整套完善的体系,那里的工程师效率高得惊人。
There's a whole harness around the engineering of Pinecone, and our engineers there are phenomenally productive.
我们围绕平台的核心、智能体架构和智能体开发平台构建了一整套体系,帮助加速软件开发。
We have a whole harness around the core of our platform, our agent architecture, agent studio where you build and deploy agents, speeding up software development there.
此外,公司里每个人都可以创建一个共享的技能库。
And then we have a shared library of skills that anyone at the company can build.
你也可以创建只有自己能用的私有技能。
You can build one that's private to you.
我有不少技能,其中一个专门用来扫描面试材料中的关键信息。
I have a whole bunch of skills, including one that is basically the clay scanner of interview packets.
到目前为止,我亲自审核并批准每一份录用申请,Pinecone 给了我很大帮助,我已经教会它识别我关注的重点,扫描出相关线索并标记出来。
So I, to date, review and approve every single hire we make, and I get some help from Pinecone, and I've basically taught it what are the things that I look for, what do I scan for, flag these if there are any instances of them.
这相当于一种捷径,让我能更快、更深入地读懂每一份材料。
It's And kind of a shortcut to a faster, deeper read of every packet.
Pinecone 现在已经变得几乎不可或缺了。
So Pinecone has just become this approaching indispensable.
我觉得还没到完全离不开的地步,但已经是高效运营公司的重要工具了。
I think we're not quite there yet, but approaching indispensable tool for running the company.
我还可以再讲讲我们做的其他一些有意思的东西。
I could go on on some of the other interesting things we've built.
我最近在搞一个叫 Sierra Brain 的东西,还有一些其他功能,
I've been working on what I call Sierra Brain and some other things in the
Sierra Brain 是什么?
What's Sierra Brain?
Sierra Brain 是从一份二十到三十页的文档开始的,这份文档让任何智能体都能了解我们公司的基本情况。
Sierra Brain is, it starts with a 20 or 30 page document that grounds any agent in what we are as a company.
包括我们做什么、怎么组织、团队结构、竞争环境,还有我们的优势和不足,全都涵盖在内。
What we do, how we're organized, our team structure, the competitive landscape, our strengths and weaknesses, all of these things.
除此之外,我还给了它访问我们所有最近的董事会信函、运营回顾,以及其他关于我们对世界认知的洞察和观察的权限。
On top of that, I've given it access to every one of our recent board letters, every one of our recent operating reviews, other insights and observations we have about like what we believe to be true about the world.
有了它,我就能用来思考公司接下来该往哪个方向走。
I can then use it to reason about what we should be doing as a company.
它就像一个了解公司、虽然谈不上事无巨细、但非常深入的战略搭档。
And so, it's a bit like a strategy thought partner, if you will, that knows the company, if not inside and out, very deeply.
我们待会儿再聊你的董事会简报,因为我听说了,你们不是每季度开一次,而是每六周就开一次。
We're gonna get to your board letters, because I heard about these, and how you have boards every six weeks, not every quarter.
对。
Yeah.
因为这个世界变得太快了。
Because the world moves too fast, apparently.
你真以为我没盯着你的一举一动吗?
Oh, trust me, I stalk the shit out of you.
不过我还是想先回到内部工具的话题上。
But I I just wanted to kind of stay on internal builds.
你提到过你们内部的那个智能代理。
You mentioned that the internal agent that you have.
我接触的很多CEO都跟我说,他们完全不知道该怎么办。
We're having a lot of CEOs who I speak to who are like, I've got no idea.
我到底该让开发团队随便花token吗?
Do I just let my devs teams run wild on token spend?
我该给他们设定一个预算吗?
Do I give them some form of budget?
令牌用到上限。
Token maxing.
是的。
Yeah.
你个人怎么看?
What's your personal take?
你和布雷茨围坐在篝火旁,会讨论要不要给这个设个上限吗?
And what do you and brats sit around the fire and say, should we put a cap on this?
还是干脆放任他们尽情使用?
Do we just encourage them to go wild?
你们是怎么处理的?
How do you approach it?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得过去六个月里,用掉大量令牌其实是个信号,说明你真的在用AI。
I think over the past six months, using a bunch of tokens was a proxy for, you're using AI.
你正在主动拥抱它。
You're leaning into it.
你试图用它来提升效率。
You're trying to be more productive with it.
所以总的来说,这其实是个积极的信号。
So, I think it's generally been a positive signal.
我听说也观察到,那些真正深入使用Claude、CodeX等工具的顶尖工程师,每年在令牌上的花费能超过十万美元。
I have heard and I have observed that top engineers who are really leaning in to Claude code, codex and so on are spending more than $100,000 on a run rate basis on tokens per year.
这已经占到工程师年薪的相当一部分了。
That's a meaningful fraction of an engineering salary.
所以我觉得,未来我们很可能会走向按员工设置令牌预算的做法。
So, I think the direction that we're headed is some amount of token budgeting on a per employee basis.
我认为,未来的CFO在做资本分配时,会更像在决定怎么分配运营支出和人力编制。
I think for CFOs in the future, like capital allocation will look more like how do we allocate OpEx and then headcount.
人员编制将包括薪资和股票薪酬,以及与人员相关的令牌使用额度。
And headcount will be both headcount for salaries and SBC, and also tokens associated with headcount.
这是你的工资,这是你的令牌预算,你自己去安排吧。
And so, here's your salary, here's your token budget, have at it.
我们还没到那一步。
We are not yet at that point.
跟那些大公司的用量比起来,我们的使用量还很有限。
Our usage compared to some of those larger numbers is modest.
现阶段,以最快的速度学习所带来的收益,比讲究节制更重要。
And I think the benefit of learning at the fastest rate possible outweighs the discipline at this point.
我们更倾向于快速试错,找出有效的方法。
We prefer to learn quickly, see what works.
看看软件开发中的使用限制未来会怎么演变,会挺有意思的。
It'll be interesting to see how the rate limiter in software development moves around.
那个所谓的安迪·格鲁夫早餐工厂,到底什么才是真正的瓶颈呢?
How the, you know, Andy Grove Breakfast Factory, you know, what is the constraining factor?
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
以前是写代码。
It used to be writing code.
现在大概是审代码。
Now it's probably reviewing code.
很快就要变成决定哪些东西值得做,以及把可能存在的东西调整成应该存在的样子。
Pretty soon it will be deciding what is worth building and editing kind of what could exist to what should exist.
这里面的变化会很有意思。
The dynamics there will be interesting.
我觉得对我们来说,一个关键问题是:如果所有东西都稍微有点被夸大了,那未来开发者薪资中有多少比例会花在令牌上?
I think the cool question for us to understand if if everything is slightly overhyped is what percent of developer salary will be spent on tokens in the future?
马克·贝尼奥夫提到大公司时说,他每年在Anthropic上为开发团队花三亿美元。
Marc Benioff, you said larger companies, said that he spends 300,000,000 a year on Anthropic for his dev teams.
算下来大约占开发者薪资的3.8%。
That works out about 3.8% of developer salaries.
其实没听起来那三亿美元那么吓人。
Not actually as much as the headline 300,000,000 makes you feel.
如果维持在3.8%,我们投资和看到的很多公司实际上都被严重高估了。
If it stays at 3.8%, a lot of the companies that we're investing in and see around us are actually grossly overvalued.
如果涨到20%,那它们就被低估了。
If it goes to 20%, they're undervalued.
我请过麦科里的布兰登来节目里聊过,他说他花在令牌上的钱比付给员工的工资还多。
And I had Brandon at McCore on the show who says he spends more on tokens than he does headcount.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得3.8%离最终的稳定水平差得太远了。
I think 3.8% is wildly off from where the steady state will converge.
你认为会到20%吗?我不指望你五年后还能记得,但你觉得有可能吗?
Where do you think it I'm not going hold you to it in five years' time, but do you see it being a 20%?
我觉得会。
Oh, I do.
我也觉得会。
I do.
所以这100美元
So the $100
每年其实会变得正常,因为你想想硅谷里顶尖的开发者,我猜他们的薪资大概在50万美元左右?
a year actually will be normalized, because you think about a great dev in the valley, I presume 500 ks dollars is kind of where they're at?
没错,那已经是顶配了。
Sure, that would be the upper end.
所以感觉还挺正常的。
So it feels kind of normal.
是的。
Yeah,
我不觉得利率会停留在3.8%。
I would not bet on 3.8%.
我更看好它接近20%。
I would bet on much closer to 20%.
在软件工程领域,我觉得收益的提升是显而易见的。
In software engineering, the gains to me seem unequivocally there.
你可以讨论,到底是两倍、十倍还是二十倍?
You can debate, is it 2x, 10x, 20x?
哪怕只是两倍,好吧,这实际上就等于让你的工程团队规模翻了一番。
Even if it's 2x, okay, you've just effectively doubled the size of your engineering team.
这非常了不起。
That's remarkable.
你提到过,Fortune 500 的企业是客户。
You mentioned the fortieth, Fortune 50 being customers.
你在很多营销材料里都经常提到这一点。
You use that quite a lot in a lot of your marketing materials.
这让我觉得你们是一家非常典型的大企业。
And it strikes me as like a very enterprise company.
当公司规模变得这么大、这么企业化之后,要保持对产品的专注,以及和客户保持紧密的联系,是不是很难?你是怎么做的呢?
Is it difficult, or how do you retain a real product focus, a real closeness to customers when you're so enterprise?
很难吗?
Difficult?
我觉得你这里设定了一个虚假的二选一。
I think it's a little bit of a false choice you're implying there.
大企业并不意味着就得跟客户保持距离。
I think being large enterprise doesn't necessarily mean you need to be distant from your customers.
在我们这儿,客户的是客户的客户。
In our case, our customers' customers.
所以,布雷特和我一直在亲自开发各种智能体。
So, Brett and I are constantly building agents ourselves.
过去六个月里,有一件事特别有意思,我们推出了Ghostwriter。
One of the more interesting things of the last six months, we released Ghostwriter.
这是一个用来构建智能体的智能体。
This is an agent for building agents.
可以说是智能体层层嵌套。
It's kind of agents all the way down.
挺厉害的。
It's pretty cool.
但我们自己一直深度参与产品开发。
But we are constantly in the products ourselves.
布雷特实际上依然是个极其出色的软件工程师。
And Brett is actually still an extraordinarily capable software engineer.
这真的令人印象深刻。
It's remarkable.
所以,那些上线的代码里,有不少是他写的。
So, you know, some of the code that is in production, right, he has written.
我可能就改过几行,但完全没法跟他比。
I've probably got a couple lines here or there, but it pales in comparison.
当然,单靠我们自己,没法模拟出许多大型企业客户那种复杂的多系统环境。
And so, of course, we can't, on our own, simulate the complex multisystem environments that characterize many of our largest enterprise customers.
所以我们只能在脑子里去推演这些场景。
So that, you know, we have to kind of simulate in our heads.
但我们都实实在在地泡在产品里。
But we're in the product.
而且我觉得,很快我们就会成为规模最大的B2C公司之一。
And then one of the things I think a lot about is we will, in short order, be in a way one of the larger B2C companies.
我们是通过客户实现这一点的。
We're doing that via our customers.
我们每天处理数亿次交互,对吧?
We're serving hundreds of millions of interactions, right?
很快就会达到上百亿次交互。
Soon billions of interactions.
所以,我们也要紧紧贴近最终用户的体验。
So, staying close to the end experience there as well.
语音的流畅度、延迟、体验的质量——这些方面都让人充满干劲,而且我们就在前线。
Voice fluency, latency, the quality of the experience, all of that stuff is very energizing and things that we're close to.
因此,无论是从客户的角度,还是从他们用户的视角来看,我都觉得离产品一点都不远。
So, I don't feel distant from the product, either from our customers' perspective or from their customers' perspective.
我一直以来都盯着这个领域,心想:这真是个了不起的市场,规模太大了,问题也够棘手,而AI恰恰最擅长解决这种问题。
I always looked at the space itself, and I was like, Amazing space, what a huge TAM, what a problem, and AI perfectly suited for it.
然后我偷偷看了看幕后,发现居然有十几家公司,每家都拿到了一亿美元的投资,比如Salesforce、Atlassian、Zendesk,还有其他那些老牌企业,天哪。
And then I kind of peek under the covers, and I'm like, oh my god, like 15 companies funded with $100,000,000 Salesforce, Atlassian, Zendesk, all the other incumbents, oh my god.
这个领域的市场成熟度到底怎么样?
What is the market maturation of this space?
你能帮我分析一下,未来五到十年,这个领域会怎么发展吗?
Help me understand how this evolves in like a five to ten year period.
是的,首先说个显而易见的事,身处一个巨大的市场,最大的好处就是它真的很大。
Yeah, I think first of all, to state the obvious, the great thing about being in a giant market is it's a giant market.
但身处巨大市场的挑战也在于,它真的太大了,而且别人都看得清清楚楚。
The challenging thing about being in a giant market is it's a giant market, and other folks know it too.
不只是初创公司,还有那些老牌企业,全是竞争对手。
And it's startups, it's longstanding companies, it's the incumbents.
所以你说竞争激烈,这点完全没错。
And so, your point on it being competitive is certainly right.
五年、十年,尤其是在我们现在的这个时代,时间可不短。
Five or ten years, especially, you know, in the age that we're in, is a long time.
我觉得关键在于,初创公司之间,客户正在用实际行动投票。
I think what I would point to is amongst the startups, customers are voting with their feet.
我们的规模已经远超其他同阶段的竞争对手,增长速度也更快,而且合作的都是全球顶尖企业。
So, we are at multiple larger size than one of our next nearest similar vintage startup competitors, growing faster, as I said, working with many of the great companies in the world.
你觉得这是像Uber和Lyft这样的市场,还是像AWS、谷歌云、Azure那样的市场?
Do you think it's like an UberLift market, or do you think it's an AWS, Google Cloud, Azure market?
这点很难说准。
It's hard to know.
因为平台在深度和广度上的规模效应,加上对特定行业的经验积累,会不断叠加放大。
I think because the economies of scale in terms of depth and breadth of platform, experience in specific industry verticals and so on, really compounds.
我猜最终会更像Uber和Lyft这样的格局。
My hunch is it will be more like an Uber, Lyft market.
而我们显然觉得自己处在领先位置,有望成为其中更大的那一个。
And we obviously think we're in the pole position to be the bigger of
这两个中的一个。
those two.
我们服务的客户中,有不少是全球最大的企业。
Again, we sell some of the biggest enterprises in the world.
前几天我请了一位嘉宾来节目,他说,不搞企业级销售,根本进不了大企业。
I had a guest on the show the other day say, You can't sell to enterprise without an FDE motion.
以你现在对这行的了解,尤其是已经拿下50家里的40家,你认同这个说法吗?
Would you agree with that, knowing all that you know now, selling to 40 of the 50?
在人工智能领域,我觉得我们其实是重新发现并借鉴了Palantir的模式。
We, I would like to think, at least in the AI space, I would say rediscovered and borrowed this model from Palantir.
我们几乎是无意中走到这一步的。
And we came to it almost accidentally.
公司刚成立时,我们第一件事就是联系那些我们信任的人,问他们眼下最头疼的难题是什么。
So, we started the company, and the first thing we did was reach out to people we trusted to understand what are the biggest unsolved problems that you were looking at.
结果发现,服务和支持其实是个很好的切入点,能帮客户贯穿整个生命周期。
And saw, oh, interesting, service and support as a foothold into something much broader, helping support customers across the entire lifecycle.
之后,我们找了六家设计合作伙伴,一起打磨出我们产品和平台的第一个版本。
We then enlisted half a dozen design partners that we built the first version of our product and platform with and for.
这些公司在公司历史上都是传奇级别的企业。
And these are, in the history of the company, legendary, legendary companies.
Olakai、SiriusXM、Sonos、健力宝。
Olakai, SiriusXM, Sonos, Weight Watchers.
我们和工程师深度嵌入这些公司,一起打造了平台的第一个版本。
We built the first version of our platform with our engineers deeply embedded inside those companies.
甚至我们的创始工程师米海,当时真的是健力宝的员工,还收到过他们的绩效评估邮件之类的。
So much so that our founding engineer, Mihai, was actually an employee of Weight Watchers, including getting like its performance review time emails and so on.
我们当时意识到,从来没有人真正部署过一个AI代理。
What we realized in that was no one has ever deployed an AI agent.
也从来没有人以这种方式把AI直接推到客户面前。
No one has ever put AI in this way in front of their customers.
为了能最快地做出最棒的产品,满足我们和客户的需求,我们必须贴近业务、了解运作机制、熟悉相关人员和他们的商业模式——虽然不敢说比客户自己还懂,
And in order for us to build the best thing as quickly as we and our customers would like, being so close to the business, the mechanics of it, the people, their business model, that we understand it, I won't say as well as our customers.
但正是这种贴近,让我们看到了巨大的潜力。
But approaching that, we saw so much power in that.
所以从2024年初开始,我们真正开始组建这支前移部署团队。
So, starting in early twenty twenty four, we really started building out this Forward-Deployed team.
客户们用它的方式多种多样。
Customers use it in widely ranging ways.
我们的平台高度可扩展,而且非常透明。
Our platform is highly extensible and very transparent.
你可以清楚地看到一个智能体是如何搭建起来的。
You can see exactly how an agent is built.
你可以导出智能体的定义,完全自己从头构建一个。
You can export agent definitions and completely build your own.
如果你不需要前移部署服务,完全可以不用。
So, no need for Forward Deployed if you don't want it.
不过我们通常发现,刚开始时,让西耶拉和我们的团队开车,客户坐在副驾驶位上,帮他们规划第一版的路线,效果最好。
What we generally find, though, is in getting started, having Sierra and help from our teams kind of drive while our customer is in the passenger seat, but navigating for the first version.
这让我们能用六周时间就把Next这样的公司顺利上线。
It's what has enabled us to take companies like Next live in six weeks.
从启动到上线,使用他们自己的电话号码和聊天功能,只用了六周。
From kickoff to live behind their phone number and chat in six weeks.
还有Cigna,对,全球最大的医疗公司之一,上线只用了五十八天左右。
Or Cigna, right, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world, live in I think it was fifty eight days.
所以,从上市速度、产生影响的速度,到实现价值的速度,再加上最终成果的质量,我们认为这差别很大。
And so, time to market, time to impact, time to value, and then the quality of the result, we think it makes a big difference.
不过,你刚才说的这种非黑即白的说法,我并不完全认同。
I wouldn't say it's binary, though, as you framed it.
当然,没有前向部署团队,你照样能卖产品。
I do think you can sell without a Forward-Deployed team.
但要想尽快、最大限度地发挥这项技术的潜力,前向部署团队真的至关重要。
But I think for getting to the impact of this technology as quickly as possible and at the magnitude that we know is possible, boy, is it an important catalyst.
我们是不是正处在一个特殊的历史时刻,买家恰好在这个时候对这类产品感兴趣?
Are we at a unique time in history where for this specific moment in time, buyer is in the market for the product?
通常来说,并不是所有人都在同一时间对某个产品感兴趣。
Normally, not everyone is in the market for a product at the same time.
每个首席执行官都被董事会问:你们是怎么用人工智能的?
Every CEO is being told by their board, How are you using AI?
现在这个时刻,买家对这类产品的需求前所未有,这是不是独一无二的时机?
Is it a unique time because there is buyer pull like never before for this specific moment?
我觉得,目前有两个领域的市场需求几乎是无限的。
There is effectively unbounded demand, I think, in two areas.
第一,我们之前聊过编程代理。
One, we've talked about coding agents.
第二,这是我们占据领先地位的领域。
The other is a space where we're the category leader.
我们能这么快成长,就是为了抓住这个机遇,满足这种需求。
One of the reasons we've grown as quickly as we have is to meet that moment and meet that demand.
我们现在在欧洲已经有100人了。
We're now 100 people here in Europe.
我们最近收购了一家日本公司,叫Opera Technologies。
We recently acquired a company in Japan, Opera Technologies.
你和我之前聊过,为了在那边迅速起步,得组建一支能把握日本文化细节的团队。
You You and I were talking about this to hit the ground running there and to have a team that can be attuned to the cultural nuances of Japan.
比如‘おもてなし’这种极致待客之道,这在日本服务行业是基本要求,我们就是要在那里打造这样的体验。
You know, the concept of Omotanashi, which is extreme hospitality, that is what is expected in Japanese service, and that's what we intend to build there.
从
Starting with the
客户支持和服务这个切入点开始。
kind of beachhead in customer support and customer service.
要想把公司发展成你理想中的样子,就得从客户服务扩展到完整的客户生命周期管理。
To scale into the company you want to be, you have to move out of customer support into complete lifecycle management, I guess.
未来,Sierra 会成为一个销售平台吗?
Is Sierra a sales platform in the future?
它会是一个转化平台吗?
Is it a conversion platform?
它会成为一个营销平台吗?
Is it a marketing platform?
它到底是什么?
What is it?
我觉得 Rocket 其实很好地体现了我们未来的方向。
I think Rocket is actually a pretty good indicator of the direction that we're headed.
想想 Rocket 客户的一生,最初是从寻找和发现他们可能想买的房子开始的。
You think about the life of a Rocket customer, it begins with search and discovery of a home they might want to buy.
我们和 Redfin 合作,重新设计了他们的房源搜索体验。
We worked with Redfin to rethink their search experience.
我们帮助 Rocket 联系那些有再融资意向的人,主动建立联系。
We help Rocket reach out to folks who've expressed interest in a refinance, make contact that way.
我们帮他们开发了 Rocket Assist,用来吸引客户,协助他们确定贷款金额和类型,收集所有必要的信息等等。
We worked with them to build Rocket Assist to help bring people in and help them shape and size their loan, gather all the information needed, and so on.
这些都不属于客户服务或支持的范畴。
None of that is service and support.
我们当然也做客户服务,对吧?
We do do that, right?
贷款服务之类的。
Loan servicing and so on.
所以,我觉得这很好地说明了未来的发展方向。
So, I think that's a good example of where things are headed.
这简直就是一种主动获客的机器。
That's an inbound sales machine.
主动和被动,你说得对。
Inbound and outbound, you're right.
这不仅仅是Rocket一家的事。
And it's not just Rocket alone.
接下来,我们会帮他们做个性化的产品推荐。
Next, we work with them on personalized product recommendations.
你怎么帮用户搭配出一套他们真正喜欢的完整组合?
How do you help someone build an outfit, a bigger basket of things they will love?
这 again 更偏向销售,而不是支持。
Again, that's much more sales than support.
所以
So
这听起来和感觉上更像是一家面向消费者的版富达500强公司,像是Palantir,但你们在为这些产品打造真正贴合客户需求的出色解决方案。
This sounds and feels more like a 50, Fortune 500 Palantir, but more consumerized, where you're building these amazing solutions for these products to fit their needs.
我这么说公平吗?
Is that unfair of me?
首先,Palantir是一家非常了不起的公司。
First of all, Palantir is an amazing company.
我们在Forward Deployed模式上借鉴了不少他们的做法。
We have taken a lot of inspirationcopied from them elements of our Forward Deployed approach.
据我了解,Palantir的客户数量只有几百家左右。
My understanding is Palantir has kind of low hundreds of customers.
我们的目标是要做到比他们大得多的规模。
We are and intend to be at a lot larger scale than that.
我认为这主要会来自于我们在特定行业领域里建立起真正的专业能力。
And I think where that will come from in particular is building real domain expertise in specific industry verticals.
当然,我们的前三个客户部署,从定义上讲都是独一无二的。
You know, of course, our first, second and third customer deployments were by definition unique, one of a kind.
我觉得我们在零售和其他一些行业里,已经学到不少关于如何构建商品组合的经验。
I think we've learned some things about how to help build a basket in the retail setting and in some of these other industries.
比如怎么妥善处理医疗理赔的状态查询,或者储蓄账户收费相关的问题。
How best to handle a question about the status of a health care claim, a health care insurance claim, or questions about a fee around a checking account.
所以,我们会在各个行业里积累越来越深的洞察,并且能更广泛地应用这些经验。
And so, I think we're going to have these deeper and deeper lessons in specific industries and be able to apply those in much more scaled way.
你们会开发一些只适用于特定客户群体、不能通用的产品吗?
Will you build products that aren't uniformly applicable across customer bases?
比如说,如果有客户需要专门的购物车放弃功能,我们会为此开发吗?
So if one customer needs specific cart abandonment product features, is that something we build?
还是说,这种需求不属于平台的通用范围?
Or is it, no, that's not applicable to the platform?
我们在打造公司时的一个做法,其实跟我们一开始说的是一致的:你可以先搭建一个平台,然后等着用户自己找上门,对吧?
One of our approaches in building the company, and this kind of goes back to where we started, you can build a platform and hope that people come, right?
应用程序都是在这个平台上开发出来的。
The applications get developed on it.
或者你可以先开发一些应用,用它们来指导平台的建设,让后续第三、第四、第五个应用变得更容易做。
Or you can build applications to inform a platform that makes building the third, fourth, and fifth that much easier.
所以,只要有机会,我们都会去寻找能增强平台能力的点。
And so, wherever we can, we're scanning for opportunities to strengthen our platform.
通用性远比单独定制的东西更有价值。
So, commonality is much better than something that is truly a one off.
不过,如果我们正在和财富50强、20强、10强甚至5强的企业合作,而对方确实有独一无二的需求,那我们当然也会做。
That said, if we're working with a Fortune 50 or Fortune 20 or Fortune 10 or Fortune five company, and there is some element of that company that is literally unique, of course we'll build that.
有意思的是,现在因为有了代码代理,开发速度也快多了,做这种定制变得切实可行。
And one of the neat things is it's actually become feasible to build that because of coding agents, because of the pace at which you can move.
在已经很成熟的平台上开发解决方案,同时又能为单个客户做个性化扩展,这真的打开了新的可能性。
There's a real unlock there in being able to build a solution on an already deep platform, but extend it in ways that may apply to a single customer.
不过我觉得,如果你为一个客户做了这个功能,很可能别的客户也会遇到同样的问题。
My hunch though is that if you build it for one, someone else is going to have that same problem, right?
所以,真正独一无二的情况其实比你想象的要少得多。
And so, it's less common than you would think, true one of ones.
我想聊聊你是怎么管理公司的。
I do want to go to the way that you run the company.
在之前很多次对话中,这一点都特别关键。
It was so important in so many of my conversations before this.
咱们从董事会会议说起吧,就像我之前说的,很多投资人都是每六周开一次,而不是每季度一次。你能跟我分享一下,你是怎么让董事会发挥最大作用、开好每次会议的吗?
If we start with the board meetings, suppose, as I said many of the investors, every six weeks, not every quarter, can you talk to me about your biggest lessons on how to really get the most out of your board and run the best board meetings?
我们做了几件事。
We do a couple of things.
你提到了每六周一次的节奏。
You mentioned the six week cadence.
我们安排了两个会议:一个像TikTok那样短平快的,大概三小时;另一个是一个半小时的。
We have kind of a TikTok, a three hour meeting, and a one and a half hour meeting.
从公司成立第一天起我们就这么做了,因为我们很清楚,在AI领域,节奏快得惊人。
We've done this since the beginning of the company because we could just see if you're on the AI time clock, it moves a lot faster.
事情一直在变。
Things are changing.
最近我们刚过完冬假,突然发现代码助手变得特别厉害。
And most recently, we came back from winter break and suddenly coding agents were amazing.
有了Claude 4.5,还有Codex 5.2。
You had Claude 4.5, Codex 5.2.
这些模型的能力有了根本性的飞跃。
There was a fundamental step change in the capabilities of these models.
这彻底改变了我们做软件开发的方式。
It changed our approach to software development.
也改变了我们对核心产品的思路。
It changed our approach to the core product.
所以,保持一个六周一次的节奏,及时吸收最新信息,更新判断,然后调整方向,我觉得特别关键。
And so having a cadence where you can take in information even from the last six weeks, update your priors, and then change course, I think is quite important.
至于开董事会,我们根本不用PPT。
As for running board meetings themselves, we don't have board decks.
我们有董事会备忘录。
We have board memos.
布雷特和我通常会写一份六到十页的备忘录。
So, Brett and I write a usually six to 10 page memo.
有句话说,写作就是把思考写在纸上。
There's a saying, Writing is just thinking on paper.
我觉得写作根本没法糊弄过去。
And I think it's very hard to hide from writing.
所以把我们的想法清晰地写下来,提前发给每位董事会成员,让他们有时间消化、思考问题,做好准备,而不是被动听汇报、被牵着走,这一点非常重要。
And so getting our thoughts clearly out onto paper, sending that in advance, giving each of our board members some kind of soak time to think through the issues and come prepared rather than be like presented to and managed, I think is a big part of it.
至于董事会备忘录的内容本身,我觉得也很有特点。
And then the contents of the board letters themselves, I think is notable.
我们在上市后的前八个季度里表现相当不错。
We've done quite well in our, you know, first eight quarters in market.
通常来说,董事会备忘录的格式就是:我们又一次大幅超越了预期。
And generally, the format of board letter is like, we exceeded forecast by a wide margin yet again.
事情进展得不错。
Things are going well.
我们签下了这些客户。
We landed these customers.
以下是七件我们认为可以做得更好的事情。
And here are the seven things we think we could be doing better.
哪些地方我们不满意,比如可以更快推进,需要在某个领域增派人手,等等。
Where we're unhappy, we could be going faster here, need to hire in this area, and so on.
董事会会议也就自然而然地围绕这些内容展开了。
And then the board meetings kind of take form on their own based on that.
只要把框架搭好,人选定准,把我们要讨论的重大问题提前摆出来,真心邀请董事会成员来挑战我们、帮助我们完善和深化思考,就够了。
You get the scaffolding right, you get the people right, you get kind of setting the table of the big questions we're asking, and then genuinely, genuinely inviting our board members in to challenge us and improve and sharpen our thinking.
这些就是一些关键要素。
Those are some of the ingredients.
我听说你们还会写自己哪些地方做得不好。
I heard that you write also about everything that you suck at.
是的
Yeah.
你写过哪些关于自己短板的特别让人印象深刻的内容?
What was one of the most memorable writings on what you suck at?
早期有一次,我们其实已经有了非常清晰的需求增长信号。
One, early on, was we had such good indicators of the demand we were going to see.
但我们招人太慢了,跟不上需求。
And we just didn't hire fast enough to meet that demand.
简直让人懊恼,我们本可以拿下更多客户。
It was like, Ugh, like we could have taken on this additional set of customers.
数据就在眼前,清清楚楚,可我们没果断行动,没及时组建招聘团队,没加速扩张。
We had the data in front of us, like we could see it, and we didn't act decisively enough to build out a recruiting team, like scale faster.
那是2024年初的事。
This was early twenty twenty four.
那时候公司刚起步,现在我们已经改过来了,但这件事印象特别深。
So early days in the company, we've since corrected, but that was one that stands out.
接下来我们聊聊招聘的事。
We are going to go to hiring.
你刚才提到了在座的几位。
You mentioned some of the people around the table.
很多人这么说,但你们俩真的是顶尖运营人才的黄金组合。
Often people say this, but you really can, You and Brett, I mean, it's the dream team of the best of the best operators.
在几乎任何价格下,你都能挑到任何投资人,这其实挺难得的。
You can choose any investors at almost any price, which is kind of hard.
你和布雷特是怎么坐下来讨论新一轮融资的价格的?
How do you and Brett sit down and discuss price on a new round?
因为投资人愿意出任何价钱来入股。
Because investors will pay anything to get in.
价格当然想高一点,但也不能太高。
You want it to be high, obviously, but also not too high.
你们是怎么具体考虑这个问题的?
How do you actually think about that?
意思是,明年目标定在三年后?
Is it like, okay, three years on next year's target?
具体是怎样的?
What does it look like?
答案通常是被动上门的。
It's generally been inbound, is the answer.
说实话,我们根本不会从估值角度去想这个问题。
We think about it, honestly, not in terms of valuation.
我们想的是,要融多少资金,才能让公司的收入、规模这些关键指标,真正迈上一个明确的新台阶?
We think, what is the amount of capital that we need to raise to get to the next unequivocally higher watermark in terms of revenue, company scale, and so on?
所以,我们是按里程碑来分阶段融资的。
So, we think of it as like milestone to milestone funding.
我们会在稀释程度上保持敏感,但不会一味追求最小化。
And then we're sensitive, but not maximally so, to dilution.
那你是怎么平衡这些因素的?
And so, how do you balance those things?
我们每一轮融资,都主动引导并接受了比原本能拿到的更低的估值。
And every one of our rounds, we actually guided to and took a lower price than we could have.
我再次跟他们聊过。
I, again, spoke to them.
他们谈到了公司内部的一些价值理念。
They said about the values within the company.
工艺精神、专注投入,还有家庭。
Craftsmanship, intensity, and family.
工艺精神、专注投入和家庭——这些词我平时真不太会见到。
Craftsmanship, intensity, and family are three that I wouldn't normally see.
你能跟我讲讲,为什么这些价值观这么重要吗?
Can you talk to me a little bit about why those are so important?
我先说说工艺精神。
I'll start with craftsmanship.
布雷特和我,因为性格使然,都很在意把事情做好。
Both Brett and I, just because of the way we are, we care about doing things well.
既然要做一件事,就要做到最好。
If you're going to do something, do it with excellence.
把事情做到极致,意义远不止于纠结细节,主要有两方面。
Two ways in which doing things with excellence mean much more than just sweating the details.
那什么是优秀的企业呢?
One is what is a great company?
一家优秀的企业,是由成千上万件出色的小事汇聚而成的。
A great company is an aggregation of thousands and thousands of things that are themselves great.
是优秀的人才。
It's great people.
是精心设计的流程。
It's processes that are well designed.
是出色的产品。
It's a great product.
是良好的企业文化。
It's a great culture.
那么,怎样才能打造一家卓越的公司呢?
And so, how do you build an excellent company?
那就是每一件事都要追求卓越。
Well, you build everything with excellence.
我觉得,坚持一个标准很重要——只要值得做,就一定要做好,这一点很关键,因为这些积累起来才能成就一家伟大的公司。
And so, I think holding ourselves to the standard, like if it is worth doing, it is worth doing well is one part of that, because that adds up to a great company.
还有别的途径吗?
How else do you get there?
另一个关键是,想想客户托付给我们的是什么。
The other is you think about what our customers are trusting us with.
还是回到信任这个价值上,不过我要把它和匠人精神联系起来。
Back to the trust value, but I'll make the connection with craftsmanship.
客户托付给我们的,是他们最宝贵的资产。
It is with their most precious asset.
那就是他们的客户。
It is their customers.
公司怎么才能知道呢?
How will a company know?
那些考虑和我们合作的人,怎么知道我们会如何对待他们的客户?
How will a set of people who are considering working with us know how we will show up with their customers?
很大程度上,取决于我们如何与他们互动。
A lot of it is how we show up with them.
我们得在与客户接触的每一个细节上都做到极致。
Sweating the details in how we show up and interact with our customers.
专业的态度、用心的程度,还有当事情真正重要时,立刻放下手头一切去应对。
The level of professionalism, care, dropping everything when something matters.
我举个例子吧。
I'll give you an example there.
在我们第一次参与黑色星期五和网络星期一促销时,和一批零售商合作,我们的首席工程师、运营主管、我或者布雷特,都会实时亲自阅读每一位客服人员与客户的每一条对话。
In our first Black Friday, Cyber Monday with a set of retailers, one of our lead engineers, our head of operations, me or Brett, was in real time personally reading every single conversation that our agents were having.
我们只想确保,真的对得起客户的信任。
We wanted to make sure we were doing right by our customers.
这就是工匠精神。
So, that's craftsmanship.
而且这累积起来就是一个优秀的公司,我认为这对帮助我们的客户理解我们会如何对待他们的客户非常重要。
And again, adds up to a great company, and it's, I think, very meaningful in helping our customers understand the care we will have for their customers.
专注和家庭感。
Intensity and family.
对。
Yeah.
你能再详细说说这两点吗?
Can you expand on those again?
这两个词我平时很少听到。
Two that I don't often get.
我觉得这又回到了Giant Market的亮点,Giant Market的难点,Giant Market和其他公司也都面临同样的问题。
So, I think it's back to this great thing about Giant Market, Giant Market, hard thing about Giant Market, Giant Market, and others are in it, too.
我认为,公司通过高度智能的客服代表来与客户互动是必然趋势——这些代表能全面掌握公司的知识和能力,替客户把事情办妥,而不是简单地把人推到网站上去。对话本身,就是交互界面,对吧?
I think there is an inevitability to companies interacting with their customers via really sophisticated agents that capture all that they know and all they can do on behalf of their customers and get the job done on their behalf, that handle the complexity as opposed to pointing you to websites and so on, where the conversation is the interface, right?
我觉得这一点是必然的。
I think there's an inevitability to that.
所以,要想胜出,要想成为这个领域最好的公司,关键就在于速度。
And therefore, in order to win, in order to build the best company in this space, it is about pace.
关键是赢,是做出最好的产品,是保持竞争力,全身心投入。
It is about winning, it is about building the best product, it is about being competitive and being intense about it.
要知道,我们没时间慢慢来,未来没有谁注定会成为那个赢家。
Knowing that, you know, we don't have the luxury of patience, there's nothing written in the wind, right, that any particular company will be the company.
无论是在第五次还是第五百次接触客户时,都要像第一次那样全力以赴。
Showing up in our fifth engagement and five hundredth engagement as intensely as we did our first.
你必须这么做。
Like, you have to do that.
所以,我觉得我们招聘时也有一套标准,就像一个交集图。
And so, I think there's also, I talk about the Venn diagram of who we hire for.
聪明、友善、有冲劲。
Smart, nice, intense.
要同时找到具备这三点的人,其实挺难的。
And it's hard actually to get all of those three in a single person.
真找到了,那简直太棒了。
When you do, it's fantastic.
在办公室里你就能感受到那种氛围。
You can feel it in the office.
另一种理解‘专注’的方式,就是把事情做到极致。
And another way of translating intensity is doing things with excellence.
快速推进事情,其实也跟匠人精神分不开。
Doing things with pace, relates to craftsmanship as well.
有没有什么办法,比如设定时间表、奖励机制,能帮助组织保持或提升这种专注度?
Is there anything that you can do or add to an organization to increase or to maintain intensity, be it timelines, be it rewards, incentives?
随着规模扩大,怎么维持这种专注度?
How do you keep intensity with scale?
我觉得关键还是从创始人开始。
I think it starts with the founders.
我和布拉德都很拼。
Like, Brad and I are quite intense.
我们得带头做表率。
We have to be the pacesetters.
我们得展现出什么叫全力以赴。
We have to be the examples of intensity.
这体现在我们管理公司的方式上。
It shows up in how we manage the company.
他和我都深陷细节,总在问:这够好吗?
He and I are deep in details and are constantly, Is this good enough?
还能怎么改进?
How could this be better?
怎么才能更快推进?
How could we go faster on this?
为什么不能明天就做完,非得等到下周?
Why can't it happen tomorrow instead of next week?
所以,我认为这必须从创始人们作为一个整体开始。
So, I think it has to start with the founders as one.
你怎么判断哪些事情该亲自参与,哪些不该?
How do you determine what you should be in versus what you shouldn't?
我们看到创始人模式正在回归,创始人重新深入细节。
We've seen the resurgence of founder mode, of founders being in the weeds.
对。
Yeah.
但也不是每件事都适合这样,也不是每件事都该这么做。
It's also not possible in everything, and it's not right in everything.
那你怎么决定呢?
How do you determine that?
你得学会取舍。
You have to edit it.
你得有判断力。
You have to have judgment for it.
我觉得你得看清楚,哪些事情如果没有我们其中一人或两人亲自推动,根本不会发生,或者会拖得很慢。
And I think you have to look at what is the thing that is not gonna happen or won't happen as quickly without direct applied force from one of us, or both of us.
所以,盲目地陷在‘创始人模式’里,深究十七层细节,去管那些根本不重要的事,完全是浪费时间。
And so, you know, it's pointless to be in, quote, founder mode, 17 layers in the details, and something that doesn't matter.
但如果这件事关乎我们下一代代理架构,而且我们能带来关键突破,那它就极其重要。
It matters a lot if it's our next generation agent architecture and there's something that we can add.
我们尽量选择在哪些地方深入参与,但这绝对不是放任不管的管理方式。
We try to be selective about where we engage at that level, but it's anything but kind of hands off management.
我觉得,这要从创始人的雄心壮志说起,这些目标往往能自我实现。
So, I think it starts with the founder's ambitious goals have a way of becoming self fulfilling.
你定下一个目标,不管是产品的质量,还是营收数字,你都得问:要达成这个目标,必须有哪些前提条件成立?
You set out a goal, whether it's the quality of a product or a revenue number, it's like, well, what would have to be true in order to get there?
咱们先别怀疑,就假设一下:要这么快走这么远,到底需要什么条件?
Like, let's suspend disbelief and just imagine like what would have to be true to cover this much ground this quickly.
我们为什么不能做到?
Why can't we do that?
那我们为什么不能呢?
Okay, why shouldn't we?
日本就是一个很好的例子。
Japan is an interesting example of that.
我们今年为什么不能在日本做成一笔大生意,而不是等到明年?
Why can't we have a giant business in Japan this year and not next year?
需要满足什么条件?
What would have to be true?
我们得在当地有十个人才行。
Oh, we'd have to have like 10 people on the ground.
我当时就想,我们为什么不直接收购一家那里的公司呢?
I was like, why don't we buy a company there?
你看,这些事情都是连在一起的。
You see how this stuff hangs together.
远大的目标,有时候就体现在一个具体的时间点上。
Ambitious goals can take the form of a date.
当然,按截止日期推进工作有时候是管用的。
Sure, you know, date driven development can sometimes work.
我觉得工作就像气体,会自动填满你给它的一切空间。
I think also work is like a gas and tends to expand to fill all available space that you give it.
所以定截止日期也有风险,比如你给了这么长时间。
And so there's a danger in setting dates as well, where it's like, well, we've got this long.
其实可能根本不需要这么久。
It may not need to take that long.
这跟第三点有关,就是工作会膨胀到你给它的所有空间里。
It ties to the third one, which is like work expands to the room that you give it.
我把全部精力都投入工作,我特别享受这一点。
I give everything to my work, and I love that.
第三,把家庭当作一种价值吗?
Third, family as a value?
是的。
Yeah.
我对这一点特别感兴趣。
I'm just interested by that one.
是的,我们的每一条价值观都直接来自布雷特和我,而且我觉得我们做过的最好的决定之一,是在公司只有五六个人的时候。
Yeah, each of our values comes directly from Brett and me, and actually one of the best decisions we made was, I think it was the time we were five or six employees.
我们花了半天时间。
We spent half a day.
布雷特和我有个方法叫‘独立思考,一起讨论’,就是先各自针对一个话题独立思考,避免互相影响。
Brett and I have a technique we call Think Apart, Think Together, where we'll initialize on a prompt, and the idea is not to group think one another.
我们想尽量发挥各自独立思考的优势。
So, we want to get kind of the best of our independent thinking.
所以我们对价值观做了次‘独立思考,一起讨论’,各自花了一个小时写下自己的看法,然后回来对比。
And so, we did a Think Apart, Think Together on values, went off and spent an hour kind of writing up what our view was, came back and compared notes.
首先,我们发现重合的地方多得惊人,回头想想,其实也不该觉得意外。
There was, first of all, a shocking amount of overlap, which I guess shouldn't have in retrospect been surprising.
因为我们本来就想一起共事。
Was like we had wanted to work together.
我们早就认识了。
We'd been friends.
我们在很多价值观上都非常相似。
Think we're deeply similar in many of our values.
我敢说,我们所有的核心价值观都是一致的。
Really all of our core values, I would say.
家庭这个价值观,是因为我有四个年幼的孩子。
Family comes from, I've got four young kids.
布雷特也有三个孩子。
Brett's got three kids.
我娶了高中时的初恋。
And I married my high school sweetheart.
对我们俩来说,唯一比西耶拉更重要的,就是我们的家人。
And I think for both of us, the only thing that's more important than Sierra is our families.
我们相信,你可以参与一个快速成长的事业。
Our belief is that you can be part of something that is growing fast.
你可以全身心投入工作。
You can be intense about your work.
需要的时候,你完全可以加把劲。
You can turn on the afterburners when you need.
这可不只是指孩子的事。
And it doesn't just mean kids.
是去机场接从外地来的父母。
It's picking up your parents at the airport when they get in from out of town.
是参加朋友家的延长版生日聚会。
It's going to the friends, you know, extended birthday weekend.
是参加家长会,或者类似的事情。
It's being, yes, at the parent teacher conference or whatever it is.
我觉得,在硅谷的初创公司里,常常有一种表演式的拼命文化,这其实太多了。
And I think there is too often an image of kind of a sometimes performative grind in certainly Silicon Valley startups.
我们并不是不认可努力工作。
It's not that we don't believe in hard work.
我们可不就是吗?
Like, boy, do we?
再说一遍,就是这种投入。
Like, again, intensity.
但真正重要的是聪明地工作,找到平衡,这样才能腾出空间去陪伴家人,关注那些对你整个人生真正重要的事,而不仅仅是工作。
But it's in working smart and finding some balance that gives you space translate family to things that matter to you in the sense of your whole being beyond just work.
但你真的能像以前那样拼命工作吗?毕竟你有家庭,还有四个孩子——克莱,你配偶,四个孩子?
Are you literally able to work as hard, though, when you have a family and you have four, I mean, Clay, a mate, four kids?
这可是四个孩子啊。
That's a lot of kids.
我觉得
I find
我确实工作很多。
I work a lot.
当然,如果你能凭空给我多出每周十五个小时,不用陪孩子,我肯定也会用在别的地方。
Of course, if you just magically handed me fifteen hours in a week that I wasn't with kids, I'd probably do something with those.
我发现我特别专注,效率也很高。
I find I am intensely focused and efficient.
所以,我每个小时都能榨出很多东西来。
And so, boy, do I get a lot out of every hour I have.
我做的一件事就是每天花很多时间在101号公路上往返办公室。
One of the things I've done, I spend a lot of time on 101 going to and from the office.
我们始终坚持面对面工作。
We are all about in person.
疫情刚结束那会儿,坚持要线下办公还显得挺特别的。
And coming out of the pandemic, it was something of, you know, a novelty being opinionated about being in person.
每天通勤要花一个半小时,有时候甚至两个小时。
So, spent like an hour and a half, sometimes two on the road every day.
我现在弄了个特别复杂的网络设置,把两个蜂窝网络和一个星链迷你设备结合起来,每天往返市区都能保持稳定流畅的连接。
I now have a very complex networking setup that combines two cellular networks and a Starlink Mini so that I have uninterrupted, beautiful connectivity to and from the city every day.
你真会安排。
You're efficient.
你每个小时都能榨出全部价值。
You get everything that you can out of every hour.
你为什么这么坚持要面对面工作?
Why are you so opinionated about in person?
尤其是对于一家年轻公司,我认为要建立一种文化、一套共同的准则和团队凝聚力,虽然不是完全不可能,但真的非常困难。
In particular for a young company, I think it is, I won't say impossible, but very challenging to build a culture, a set of shared norms, camaraderie.
我们经常说,企业软件就像一场团队运动,能成为一支顶尖团队的一员,感觉特别棒。
I think so many of things we talked about, enterprise software as a team sport, it feels great to be part of an amazing team.
但当你和这支顶尖团队的联系,只是靠一屏幕的Zoom小方块时,感觉就不一样了。
And it's different when your connection to that amazing team is via a Brady bunch of Zoom squares.
我们有一些只有在办公室里一起工作时才会形成的固定习惯。
We have rituals that we've developed that we only would have developed if we were all working in person.
我觉得对年轻员工来说,那种言传身教的指导真的会发生。
I think for younger employees, apprenticeship and mentorship that happens.
我很多东西都是从有经验的人那里学来的,我职业生涯的起点,就是靠他们主动带我、让我在一旁亲眼看着他们怎么做事。
So much of what I learned, and I think the initial conditions of my career, were from experienced people taking me under their wing or letting me, in cases, literally look over their shoulder at how they were doing something.
我觉得这种传承也很重要,而面对面交流在这方面也起着关键作用。
I think there's an element of paying it forward that's important, and in person has a role to play in that as well.
我特别喜欢一位著名计算机科学家哈明的一场演讲,讲的是你和你的研究。
There's a talk that I love by the renowned computer scientist, Hamming, you and your research.
对任何新毕业生来说,我认为从字数效率来看,这可能是读过最有价值的内容。
For any new graduate, probably the single best thing on a per word basis, I think, can read.
其中一个核心观点是:找到优秀的人,和他们一起工作,并向他们学习。
One of the central theses is find great people, work with them, and learn from them.
听起来很简单,但其中蕴含着深刻的道理。
It sounds obvious, but there's something deeply correct.
我们人类到底是怎么学习的呢?
Like, how do we learn as human beings?
我们通过观察别人怎么做,然后模仿他们。
We observe someone doing something, and we effectively copy it.
所以,找到优秀的人,然后去模仿他们。
So find great people and copy them.
这就是你积累技能和能力的方式。
That's how you accumulate skills and capabilities.
哈明在这次演讲中还提到一点,知识和努力就像复利。
And one of the other points Hamming makes in this talk is knowledge and hard work are like compound interest.
我们都明白,越早开始积累,因为复利的神奇效应,就能彻底改变你的人生轨迹。
And we all know the earlier you start saving because of the miracle of compounding interest, it can massively change the trajectory of your life.
所以,年轻人越早开始拼命学习越好,尽早把这些经验和能力内化下来,这真的能改变你的人生走向。
And so, any young person should be intensely focused on learning as much as they can, as early as they can, locking in those kind of lessons and capabilities, if you will, cause it is literally trajectory changing.
你想听两件有趣的事吗?
Do you want to hear two funny things?
第一,我们以前每周做五期节目。
One, we used to do five shows a week.
我刚起步的时候,比谁都拼。
I just worked harder than anyone else when I was starting out.
这节目量也太多了吧,哈里。
That's a lot of shows, Harry.
是的,那是十一年前的事了,但那时候每周做五期节目。
Yeah, yeah, it was eleven years ago, but it was five shows a week.
第二点,我前三年每期节目听众都没到一千,三年里也没从节目里赚过一分钱。
And then two, I didn't have a thousand listeners per show for three years, and I never made a dollar on the show for three years.
我从来不是为了钱或者名气做这个。
It was never about money or recognition.
我真正关心的,只是把这当成向你学习的方式。
I only cared actually about using this as a method to learn from you.
尤其是我十八岁那会儿,要认识厉害的人真的很难。
And probably when I especially when I was 18, it was harder to meet amazing people.
所以我对这两点完全认同。
And so I completely agree with those two.
现在年轻一代的人可真多。
There are a lot of young people today.
你也有孩子。
You have kids.
我能想象那些刚毕业、对这个世界还感到迷茫的年轻人。以你现在的见识,你会给他们什么建议?
I can picture them leaving university who are uncertain about where the world is, what to What would you advise them, knowing all that you know?
即将到来的明显趋势是人工智能。
The obvious kind of tsunami coming is AI.
那么,这对工作会带来什么影响?
Okay, what are the implications on jobs for that?
我理解大家很担心,尤其是入门级岗位会怎么样。
I think there's been a lot of concern, understandably, about, okay, what happens to entry level jobs?
新人该怎么学习、怎么积累经验呢?
How do you apprentice and so on?
我觉得刚毕业的年轻人最大的优势在于,你们刚刚花了四年时间,拥有几乎无限的自由时间。
I think the unfair advantage that young people have coming out of university is you've just had four years to spend effectively unlimited time.
你得去上课、应付考试,就这么简单。
You've got to go to class and pass some exams and stuff.
你对自己的时间有极大的掌控权,空闲时间也特别多。
You have huge control over your time and disposable hours.
从大学毕业时,如果你已经精通这些AI工具,我敢说有一千家公司都抢着要你,把你的本事用到他们的业务里。
Coming out of university as a master of these AI tools, boy, let me point you to a thousand companies that would love to have you infuse what you know into how they're doing things.
我记不得什么时候,一个没有工作经验的年轻人,只要心态对、会用这些工具,就能这么受重视。
I can't remember a time when a young person with no work experience, but with the right mindset and experience using some of these tools, has ever been so valued.
我们公司里最有成效的一些员工,才二十二三岁,完全被AI赋能了,对这些工具的熟练程度,连很多资深员工都比不上。
Some of our most effective employees at the entire company are 22 or 23 years old and have been completely AI pilled and have a comfort and facility with these tools that many of our more experienced folks don't.
你们在招聘时,对这个AI赋能时代的人才标准有什么调整吗?
Has the way that you hire changed for the profile that wins in this AI pilled world?
有。
Yes.
我们彻底改了工程师的面试流程。
We completely changed our engineering interview process.
现在更像是给你一个指令,
So, it now looks much more like, here's a kind of prompt.
然后想想你打算开发一个什么样的应用。
Think through an application you would like to build.
不错。
Cool.
好,给你150美元,去选一个你心仪的编码助手。
Okay, here's $150 to spend on choose your coding agent.
你可以用任何你喜欢的配置。
You can use whatever setup you want.
想用什么工具都行。
Use whatever tools you want.
自带笔记本,自带工具都没问题。
Bring your own laptop, bring your own tools.
我们来承担你的调用费用。
We're going to pay for your tokens.
然后就把项目做出来。
And then build it.
跟我们说说你是怎么一步步完成这个项目的。
Tell us how you went through building it and so on.
所以在工程领域,这已经是一场原生的AI面试了。
So, at least in engineering, it is an AI native interview.
当然,我们会考察架构、系统设计、产品思维、文化契合度,还有候选人是否聪明、友善、专注,以及他们是否真正体现了我们的价值观。
And of course, we test for architecture, systems design, product thinking, culture, smart, nice, intense, the extent to which we think people manifest our values.
但这些标准已经发生了巨大变化。
But that's changed very significantly.
如果在未来两个月内,我们的每一场面试还没有明显的AI原生元素,我会非常失望。
I will be disappointed if in the next no more than two months, not every one of our interviews has some strong AI native component to it.
你刚才提到了架构,你是怎么想的?
Do you think You mentioned architecture there.
考虑到AI生成的代码可能不够安全,你认为我们正进入网络安全的黄金时代吗?
Do you think we are entering a golden age for cyber and for cybersecurity, given the proliferation of code generated by AI that may not be as secure as it needs to be?
就重要性而言,我清楚地看到,现在比以往任何时候都更重要,因为攻击能力已经提升了五个档次。
In terms of importance, it is obvious to me that it has never been more important, given that the kind of offensive capabilities just ratcheted up five notches.
在我看来,网络安全是个非常有前景的方向。
I think cybersecurity seems like a pretty good bet to me.
关键在于,这些攻击性工具会不会反过来变成防御性工具?比如Mythos和Codex 5.5 Cyber,它们本身是不是就是解决方案,而不是更狭义的网络安全产品?
The question is whether the offensive tools turn to be defensive tools, if actually Mythos and Codex 5.5 Cyber, if they themselves are the solution, not a more narrowly focused cybersecurity product.
你和布雷特最近一次争执是什么时候?
What was the most recent disagreement you and Brett had?
几周前,我们正想办法让某个项目在某个领域提速。
A couple of weeks ago, we were trying to figure out how to get something to move much faster in one space.
这挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
我们基本上最后总能达成一致。
We basically always converge.
我们特别追求真相。
It's like we're highly truth seeking.
我们有个挺特别的说法。
It's like, what is We have a funny expression.
这就对了。
It's like, this is correct.
好的。
Okay.
那是什么意思?
What does that mean?
从追求客观真相的角度来看,这就是正确的做法。
From some objective truth seeking perspective, like, this is the right way to do it.
所以我们努力去弄清楚,到底什么才是正确的解决方案。
So we try to get to, okay, what is the correct solution?
我当时觉得,我们需要为这件事建立更好的流程和结构。
I was on One side was like, I think we need better kind of process and structure around this thing.
布雷特则更看重人。
Brett was on the side of people.
也许这个领域需要换不同的领导者。
Maybe we need different leaders or a different leader in this space.
答案呢,和大多数事情一样,其实是两方面都有道理,对吧?
The answer, as with most things, like turned out to be some of both, right?
结果发现是两者兼有。
Turned out to be some of both.
我们一开始觉得,这问题不能光靠解决办法来搞定。
We started from, No, it can't just be solved with a problem.
意思是,这也不光是人的问题。
It's like, No, it's not just people.
然后我们就顺着这些线索深入探究。
And, you know, we pull on those threads.
这并不是要分开想或者一起想,而是彼此不断追问,目的就是找到最正确、最好的做法。
And this wasn't think apart, think together so much as just kind of interrogating each other, again, with the goal of just getting to the right and best approach to something.
当布雷特说出什么观点时,你会不会觉得,‘没错,他在行’?
What when Brett says something, are you like, Yep, I'm sure he's a G at that?
当你提出看法时,
And what when you say something,
布雷特会不会就摆出一副专家的样子,说‘没错’?
is Brett like, Yep, plays the expert?
我们考虑问题的方式,不是把公司拆分成部门,而是给每个部分都设定主修和辅修方向。
We think about, rather than dividing up the company, we think about majors and minors for every part of the company.
布雷特的主修领域肯定是销售,其次是工程。
So, Brett's majors are definitely sales and then engineering.
他在卖软件方面特别在行。
He's really good at selling software.
他作为软件工程师的本事也一点没落下。
He's really good as a software engineer still.
我主修的是我常说的公司运营部分。
I major in what I've called like the running of the company.
比如运营、财务、法律这些方面。
So, operations, finance, legal, and so on.
我经常负责打第一通电话。
I do a lot of first calls.
他非常清楚我们最重要的那些合同,毕竟这些事直接关系到公司怎么运转。
Like he understands our most important contracts, you know, for things that are highly consequential on how we run the company.
我们手里有两把关键的钥匙,用来掌控这些事。
You know, we have kind of two nuclear keys that we turn on those.
布雷特在Salesforce待过,从最顶尖的人身上学到了很多。
Brett, having spent time at Salesforce, really learned from the best.
马克真是非同凡响。
Like, Mark is extraordinary.
听上去他确实是我见过的最厉害的销售。
It does sound like he's the best seller I've ever met.
简直难以置信。
Unbelievable.
史上最强,史上最强,太厉害了。
The GOAT, the GOAT, unbelievable.
马克那边天气怎么样?
How's the weather on Mark?
我跟你提过Agent Force吗?
Have I told you about Agent Force?
说到销售的直觉,那种公正又真诚的尊重,真的让人觉得没错,就这么回事。
The just but honest respect, when it comes to instincts on how to sell, it was like, yep, okay, makes sense.
布雷特在系统设计和架构方面的直觉,没人比得上。
Brett's instinct on system design and architecture are second to none.
所以,我对他的判断的信任,甚至超过对自己的信任。
And so, I trust his judgment more than I trust my own.
在人员管理、公司建设与运营这些事上,只要克莱说了算,我一定听他的。
On people stuff, on kind of the building and running of the company, it was like, whatever Clay size, I would go with that.
我觉得这大概就是主要和次要的阴阳平衡了。
So, I think that's probably the rough yin yang major minor split.
老兄,如果可以的话,我想来个快问快答。
Dude, I would love to do a quick fire round if it's okay.
好啊,来吧。
Yeah, let's do it.
和桑达尔共事,你学到的最大一课是什么?
What was your biggest lesson from working with Sundar?
真是莫大的福气。
Such a gift.
桑达尔有一种非凡的能力,能从完全不同的角度看待问题。
Sundar has a remarkable ability to look at a problem from wildly different zoom levels.
他的思维广度无人能及,既能站在最高层面制定战略,又能深入到最细微的细节。
His dynamic range and thinking is second to none, zoomed all the way out, highest level strategy.
从未来五年的大局走向,到每一个像素、阴影、声音、材质的精准把控,他都能兼顾。
How is this going to unfold over the next five years, all the way into the details, the pixels, the drop shadows, the sound, the texture of something.
我也一直在努力向他学习。
And I have tried to emulate that.
谈谈身边有杰出人物,或者有幸为这样的人工作是什么感觉。
Talk about surrounding yourself by great people or having the privilege of working for someone.
我见过一位领导者,他对产品、工作和打造卓越事物有着极致的专注,同时本身也是一个极其温暖的人,真正关心身边每一个人。
I observed a leader who is extraordinarily focused on the product, the work, building something great, also is just a wonderful human being and deeply focused on the humanity and folks around him.
关于谷歌,有什么事情是外人不知道、但每个人都该知道的?
What does no one know about Google that you think everyone should know?
人们常常低估了谷歌的力量——当一个雄心勃勃且持久的使命,加上一群极其聪明的人,再配上一种崇尚真实、致力于实现这一使命的文化三者结合时,这家公司几乎能解决任何问题。
What people underestimate about Google is when you have the alignment of an ambitious, enduring mission, incredibly smart people, and a culture that values truth and building in service of that mission, that company can kind of solve anything.
有些人会批评谷歌搞得太杂,百花齐放。
People sometimes criticize Google for thousand flowers bloom.
但如果那些聪明又真诚的人,真心照料着每一寸花圃,并且方向对了,这种模式就会成为创新、发现和创造新事物的强大动力。
If you have smart, well meaning people caring for every one of those flower beds and they're they're directed in the right way, it is quite a force for invention and discovery and building new things.
有人让我问你一下你的书单。
I got asked to ask you about your book list.
我听说你读很多书。
I hear you read a lot.
这问题有点蠢,抱歉啊。
That's a shit question, forgive me for it.
听完你这番话,我最该读哪本书?
What's the must read for me leaving this conversation?
哦。
Oh.
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