20VC：为什么Cursor已死 | 人工智能海啸即将来临，你需要做好准备 | 信息系统将因智能代理而沦为无价值的数据库 | 技术私募股权的终结？与Insight Partners联合创始人杰里·默多克对话

你所投资的这些东西，未来是否会被代理完全掌控和执行？

If whatever you got invested in, is that future gonna be done and controlled by agents?

我是否处于一个适合这个未来的位置？

And am I in the right position for that or not?

当你不是向人类销售，而是向代理销售时，世界会如何变化？

How does the world change when you're not selling to people, but you're selling to agents?

这种互动和界面会发生怎样的改变？

How does that interaction change, the interface?

当购买者发生这种核心变化时，会发生什么改变？

What changes when there's that core change in the buyer?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，这以前从未发生过。

First of all, it's never happened before.

所以现在它正在发生。

So it's happening now.

我猜测，定价模式将会更好地运作，这其实已经持续了好几年了。

My guess is the way pricing models will work better, and it's been in process for a few years.

我旗下的公司Docker在转向人工智能时，正显著向这种基于使用量的模式转变。

One of my companies, Docker, has been moving dramatically toward this as they move into AI, which is a consumption based model.

如果代理拥有访问权限并获得授权使用某项服务，比如一个沙盒环境，你就只需根据实际使用量付费。

So if the agent has the access and has the authorization to use something, say a sandbox, you're just gonna pay based on consumption.

这个沙盒本质上就是你购买内存或计算资源。

The sandbox is nothing more than you're buying memory or buying compute.

所以你只需打开它即可。

And so you just open it up.

它是免费的。

It's free.

开始使用它，然后你最终需要付款。

Start using it, and then you ultimately have to pay.

然后代理会过来告诉你：嘿。

Then the agent will come and tell you, hey.

我们在这里的沙盒公司已经达到了上限。

We've reached our limit with the sandbox company here.

我们需要做什么？

What do we need to do?

这就是它将如何运作的。

And that's how it's gonna work.

回到我们之前谈到的附加式AI策略。

Going back to what we said earlier about bolt on AI strategies.

是的。

Yeah.

有很多

There's a lot

许多公共SaaS公司，我不想点名，它们并非公开上市，甚至有些还是较晚的私营公司，正试图附加AI功能，试图转型。

of public SaaS companies, I don't wanna name any of them, who are trying to move not public, even kind of late private, who are trying to bolt on, who are trying to pivot.

这有效吗？

Does that work?

你怎么看待这种附加策略作为一种有效策略？

How do you think about the bolt on strategy as an effective strategy?

听好了。

Look.

我刚去过奥运会，有很多人试图赢得金牌，但真正能赢的人很少。

I was just at the Olympics, and there's a lot of people trying to win a gold medal, and not many people do.

所以，你知道，你可以尽你所能去尝试，但如果你想要拿到奖牌，你必须在你所做的事情上达到世界级水平。

And so, you know, you can try all you want, but you better be world class at what you're trying to do if you're gonna get the metal.

明天我会邀请 monday.com 的首席执行官来参加节目。

I have the CEO of monday.com on the show tomorrow.

是的。

Yeah.

当你思考这个问题时，我不是在针对 Monday，而是想问：企业软件和软件本身会不会完全变成由氛围编码、个性化和定制化的？

When you think about the question I'm I'm not picking on Monday, but I'm saying the question of will enterprise software and will software software just be entirely vibe coded, personalized, customized?

你对此怎么看？

How do you think about that?

因为这会导致它们大量市值的消失。

Because that is the kind of eradication of a lot of their market caps.

首先，自主代理可能需要一年或更长时间，大多数企业才能真正实现并投入其中。

Well, first of all, autonomous agents, and it may take a year or longer for most enterprises to actually enable and get committed to autonomous agents.

但它们编写软件的速度和成本将远超地球上任何人类。

But they're gonna write software faster, cheaper than any human being on the planet.

它们现在已经做到了。

They already are.

所以，再次强调，如果你为自主代理开发软件，而它们有使用它的理由并且觉得有价值，那就很好。

And so, again, it's this thing of, like, if you're making your software for autonomous agents and they have a reason to use it and it's valuable, great.

你会做得很好。

You're gonna do fine.

但如果你不为自主代理开发软件，未来你将面临巨大挑战。

But if you're not making your software for autonomous agents, you're gonna be challenged in the future.

也许是六个月，也许是一年，也许是十八个月，但如果你还认为人类会购买你的软件，你将会面临严峻挑战。

Maybe it's six months, maybe a year, maybe eighteen months, but you're gonna be severely challenged if you still think human beings are gonna buy your software.

因此，我们有代理购买软件，并且我们会审查它们的决策。

And so we have agents buying software, and we review their decisions.

我不用处理病假问题。

I didn't have to deal with sick leave.

我不用应对自以为是的千禧一代。

I didn't have to deal with entitled millennials.

我听起来可能非常老派，但正如你所知，这确实是事实。

I I sound incredibly old school, but this is the truth, as you know.

鉴于你提到的，尤其是变化速度如此之快，你是否担心劳动力将何去何从？

Are you worried about what happens to labor forces given what you said most importantly being the speed of change is so fast?

很高兴你提到这一点。

You know, I'm glad you brought that up.

距离下一次总统大选还有大约两年半的时间。

We're about two and a half years from the next presidential election.

我要说的是，这将成为下一次总统大选的主要议题。

I am here to say that that is gonna be a major issue on the next presidential election.

这可能会决定选举的结果。

It could decide the election.

这将成为最重要的问题之一，因为没有简单的答案。

It'll be one of the most important things because there's no easy answer.

毫无疑问，任何从事数据输入、排程等工作的人，比如行政助理或市场营销人员，这些白领工作最终都会被自主代理更好地完成。

There's no question that anyone that inputs data into a computer that does scheduling that, you know, like an executive assistant or people doing marketing, those jobs are ultimately gonna be better done by autonomous agents, white collar jobs.

人们已经说了好几年了。

People have been saying that for years.

我的意思是，这没什么新鲜的。

I mean, is nothing new.

问题是，这什么时候会发生？

The question is, when was it gonna happen?

而现在，随着OpenClaw、NanoClaw以及所有其他即将出现的自主代理的兴起，这些直接的威胁已经显现。

And now with the advent of OpenClaw and NanoClaw and all the other autonomous agents that are coming, there are the direct threats.

首先，不是对那些拥有工作的人。

First of all, not to the people with the job.

首先，是那些排队等候的人，你想要雇佣的下一位初级开发人员、下一位行政助理、下一位市场人员。

First of all, to the next person in line, the next junior developer you wanna hire, the next executive assistant, the next marketing person.

所以你首先看到的是，人们停止或放缓了招聘那些输入数据、使用电脑的白领员工。

So the first thing you see is people stopping or slowing down hiring of white collar employees that input data and use a computer.

这是第一件事。

That's the first thing.

第二件事，取决于这些自主代理进化速度，因为它们还有很多事情要做。

Second thing, depending on the speed at which these autonomous agents evolve, because there's a lot that they need to do.

它们已经证明了自己能够编写代码，并且能为你生活中的日程安排做任何事情。

They've proven it exists that they can write code and they can do anything you want from a scheduling perspective for your life.

所以它们已经能够取代人类。

So they already can replace a human being.

它们会的。

They will.

我认为就业市场非常不均衡。

I think that the job market's very uneven.

我认为第一批采用这项技术的公司将是中小型企业，因为对他们来说，一个秘书就能在二到四人的公司里产生巨大影响。

I think the first companies that are gonna go with this are gonna be small medium businesses because they're the ones that, wow, one secretary makes a huge difference in their, you know, two, three, four person company.

你不需要人类来做这些事。

You don't need humans doing it.

已经有自主代理在替你做了。

You've got the autonomous agent doing it.

所以我认为我们必须关注自主代理在三个领域——消费者、中小企业和企业——中的发展速度。

So I think we have to look at what's the speed at which the autonomous agents grow in three sectors, consumer, small business, and enterprise.

我猜测企业会是最后才跟进的。

My guess is enterprises last.

这场人工智能革命，企业一直都是最后才行动的。

This whole AI revolution, there have been last.

它们可能在一两年内赶上来。

They may catch up in a year or two.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

我认为，ChatGPT、谷歌和Anthropic将全力聚焦于让企业快速采用他们自己的自主代理版本。

That's gonna be what I think ChatTPT and Google and and Anthropic are absolutely gonna be focused on, is getting their own version of autonomous agents adopted by enterprises rapidly.

一旦发生，我们将看到巨大的变化。

When this happens, we're gonna see dramatic change.

我认为，从政治角度看，最低基本收入可能在两年半内成为现实，或至少成为一个投票议题。

And I think politically, the minimal viable income may become a reality or at least a ballot question in two and a half years.

什么是最低基本收入？就是全民基本收入吗？

What does that mean, a minimum viable income, UBI?

意思是，你会每月获得一笔有保障的固定金额。

It means that, you know what, you're gonna go and get effectively a certain amount of money guaranteed to you every month.

因此，对于白领人群，政府会改革失业保障体系，因为任何政府都不愿坐视有15%的国民失业。

And so that you if you're a white collar person, they'll they'll change the unemployment program because no administration's gonna wanna sit there and say, yeah.

我执政期间，国家失业率达到了15%。

I've presided over 15% of the country unemployed.

他们更可能提供一个方案，让人们加入再培训计划，从事其他工作，或许能获得更好的生活质量。

What they'll do is give an option to put them into a program and we'll retrain people to do something different, maybe to have a better quality of life.

如果你持乐观看法，那些即将消失的工作并不是能让你很快去巴西度假的工作。

If you take the optimistic view, you know, those jobs that are gonna be going away are not gonna be jobs that gets you a a vacation in Brazil anytime soon.

它们是你每天都在忍受、为生计挣扎、担心是否付得起医疗费用的工作。

They're the jobs that are you're suffering at every day, making a living, and you're struggling as to whether you can pay your health care or not.

所以也许这些人会说，我要搬出城市，离开郊区，回到乡村去种地。

And so maybe those people say, I'm gonna move out of the city, move out of the suburb, and maybe I'm gonna move back to the country and and grow food.

你知道，我会申请一笔补助来做这件事。

You know, I'm gonna get this grant to do so.

在怀俄明州，已经有一些创新企业正在接收退伍军人，把土地租给他们，因为现在有了技术，一两个人就能管理一个大型牧场，而不需要八个人。

There's already innovative businesses in Wyoming where they're taking veterans and giving them branches to lease because now with technology, one or two people can run a massive ranch instead of eight people.

所以类似这样的新事物正在各地发生。

And so there's new things like that happening everywhere.

劳动力被取代，这对特朗普政府是有利还是有害？

Labor displacement, does it help or or hurt the Trump administration?

这要看它什么时候发生。

Depends when it happens.

在未来两年内。

In the next two years.

我认为我们都同意，客户支持方面我们已经看到了。

I think we both agree that, you know, customer support we're already seeing.

会计、法律将是三个，而编程将是第四个特别脆弱的领域。

Bookkeepers, legal would be the three and coding would be the kind of four really vulnerable areas.

我认为医疗保健可能会在劳动力市场之前就受到影响，因为这种情况一定会发生。

I think health care may hit that before the the labor market hits it because it's gonna happen.

我们今年秋天就会知道。

We'll find out this fall.

医疗保健对选举有什么影响？

What's the impact of health care on the election?

如果影响很大，那么你可以推断，劳动力问题也将对任何政府产生重大影响。

And if it's a big impact, then you can assume that labor will be a major impact on the, you know, on any administration.

当我们思考智能代理对公司的影响时，我曾邀请Klarner的Seb做客节目，他说在高峰期，他们有7000人。

When we think about the impact of agents on companies, I had Seb from Klarner on the show, and he said that at that peak, they were 7,000.

到2030年，他们的人数将少于2000人。

By 2030, they're gonna be less than 2,000.

现在，公司里的人数是问题，而不是优势吗？

Is headcount a bug, not a feature now in companies?

你知道，人们从不真正谈论这一点，但这一切都关乎文化。

You know, look, people never really talk about it, but it's all about culture.

你的文化是什么？

What's your culture?

如果你想要打造一支顶尖人才组成的团队，史蒂夫·乔布斯在苹果就谈过这个问题，你该如何持续吸引并留住顶尖人才？

If you're looking to have a culture of a players, and Steve Jobs talked about this at Apple, you want how do you just continue to grow with a players?

你将会拥有远多于人类的智能代理。

You're gonna have a hell of a lot more agents than people.

所以这取决于克兰纳剩下的那2000个人究竟在做什么。

So it depends on what those 2,000 people are doing at Klarna that are left.

那2000人所形成的文化是什么样的？

What's their culture like with those 2,000?

如果他们都能拥有更高的生活质量，有更多时间陪伴孩子，那或许是一个巨大的胜利。

If they're all able to have a greater quality of life, have more time with the kids, maybe it's an awesome win.

你知道的。

You know?

但我并不在那个位置。

But I'm not there.

我不是他，所以我无法评论。

I'm not him, so I can't comment.

你认为我们会出现单人创立的十亿美元公司吗？

Do you think we will have billion dollar single person companies?

这种说法经常听到。

It's often said.

你觉得这真的现实吗？

Do you think it's actually a realistic Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

我的意思是，这全取决于你的智能代理有多聪明？

I mean, it's all about how smart is your agent?

你部署代理有多聪明，又愿意倾听到什么程度？

How smart are you to deploy the agents and how well are you willing to listen?

我觉得令人震惊的是，自主代理真的有效，OpenClaw 真的成功了。

I think the thing that's shocking is that autonomous agents work, that OpenClaw worked.

这就是为什么这么多开发者对 OpenClaw 如此热情，因为它能独立运行，无需人工审查。

And that's why so many developers are so passionate about OpenCLaw because it's something that's working on its own without having to be reviewed.

它就像一个员工。

It's an employee.

你已经从助手变成了真正的员工。

You've gone from an assistant to actual employee.

想想这一点。

Think about that.

这在生活上是一个巨大的、巨大的变化，我认为这类变革非常值得关注。

That's major, major difference, in life, and I think those kinds of changes are gonna be really important to notice.

我是奥兰多·布拉沃，正坐着看着我的书，旁边有Anaplan和Cooper。

I am Orlando Bravo, and I'm sitting looking at my book, and I've got Anaplan, and I've got Cooper.

我不是在针对他，但我确实是在针对他。

And I'm not picking on him, but I'm picking on him.

对。

Right.

这对我有什么影响？

How does it impact me?

我需要让这些资产发挥作用。

I need to these assets to go out.

它们通常是企业级SaaS公司的15%到20%。

They're 15 to 20% typical enterprise SaaS companies.

在这种环境下，传统的私募股权科技公司会怎样？

What happens to traditional PE tech in this environment?

那我们回到9/11吧。

Well, let's go back to 09/11.

当时有一些传统的私募股权公司，现在它们被称为更复杂一些的机构，但本质上都是收购型基金。

There was, several of these traditional now they're called, you know, something more sophisticated private equity, but they were kind of buyout shops.

我认识的泰迪·福斯曼经营着一家非常出色的基金，但在2000年，他把所有赌注都押在了电信公司和虚拟电信公司上。

Teddy Forsman, who I knew ran a great one, except in 2000, he went all in on telcos, virtual telcos.

9·11事件之后，他的事业就结束了。

Then it was over for him after 09:11.

完了。

Done.

福斯曼小公司再也没有了。

No more Forceman Little.

类似这样的故事还会出现。

And so there'll be stories like that.

我不知道布拉沃或者其他任何人的情况，但肯定会有某些私募基金最终落得和福斯曼小公司一样的下场。

I don't know about Bravo or anybody else, but they'll definitely be p e firms that end up like Forceman Little.

而另一些基金则做出了正确的投资决策，展现了足够的创新，它们会比以前更强大、更重要。

And then there'll be other ones that had the right bets and did the right creativity, and they'll be bigger and better and more important than they were before.

生活本质上是你所经历的一系列体验以及你所做出的所有决定的总和。

Life is basically a set of experiences you have and the total sum of the decisions you make.

这些公司的一切都关乎你所做的决定。

Any of these firms is about the decisions you make.

现在我们正处于一个需要重新审视自己的假设以及未来将做出哪些决策的时刻。

And now we're at a point in time when you need to review what your assumptions are and what decisions you're gonna make going forward.

如果你要根据当前的氛围和环境来决定如今该把公司设在哪里，你会选择哪里作为你的投资机构？

If you were to make a decision about where you would place a firm today, seeing the atmosphere and the landscape that you have, where would you choose your investing shop to be?

问题是，你面前有个老头，他只想把公司设在阿斯彭的山上，或者阿尔卑斯山里。

The problem is you got an old man here who's gonna wanna have it up in the mountains in Aspen or in the or in the Alps.

这成了我的新目标。

That's my new thing.

我不像埃隆或詹森那样会一辈子做下去。

I'm not like Elon or Jensen that are gonna do this for the rest of their life.

我做这一切只是为了产生影响。

I'm just doing this for impact.

我根本无法想象，现在还以多年前同样的理由去外面做这件事。

I can't even imagine going out there and doing it for the same reasons I did it years ago.

就像鲍勃·迪伦接受采访时，他们问他：1964年在纽波特的感觉怎么样？

It's like Bob Dylan got interviewed, they asked him, well, what was it like for you back in 1964 at Newport?

他说：我都不记得那个家伙是谁了。

He says, I don't even know who that guy was.

你知道吧？

You know?

我也有同样的感受。

And I feel the same way.

我根本想不起来1995年的自己是什么样子了。

I don't even know what that guy was like back in 1995.

一切都已经变了。

It's moved on.

我一直以来投身这个行业，都是为了创造性的影响力，为了在一支做有意义事情的团队中扮演一个微小的角色。

I I was always into this business for the creative impact and to play a very small role on a team that was doing something meaningful.

所以我想要做这件事。

So I wanna do that.

这将会很重要。

That's gonna be important.

但关键在于要具备足够的智慧，理解变革将如何影响人们，以及你该如何推进。

But it's just a matter of having the right amount of of wisdom about how the change is gonna impact people and how you're gonna do it.

我的意思是，风险投资公司应该拥有自己的自主代理。

I mean, VC firms should have their own autonomous agents.

每个人都应该有。

Everybody should.

我的意思是，你能想象医疗和分析工作会变成什么样吗？

I mean, can you imagine the the medical and analytical work?

当然，私募股权公司都会使用自主代理来分析市场，寻找机会所在。

Certainly, the PE firms are all gonna have autonomous agents analyzing markets, analyzing where the opportunity is.

所以，如果我要从零开始，我能想象的一件事就是拥有极其出色的数据，用来评估新的机会，找出这些新兴AI公司的空白领域，然后说：‘哇，数据显示这个人选对了市场。’

So if I was starting from scratch, the one thing I could imagine is having incredible data that I could vet on a new opportunity for the white space for where these new AI companies are gonna go and say, wow, the data says this guy's on the right market.

他只需要执行即可。

He just needs to execute.

然后你要评估的不仅是这个人，还有他们使用自主代理的质量。

And then you evaluate not just the person, but the quality of of how they use autonomous agents.

这将成为风险投资家和初创公司的决定性因素。

That's gonna be the deciding factor for venture capitalists and startups.

我们将处于同一水平线上。

We're gonna be on the same level playing field.

我们在工作中使用自主代理的能力如何？

How well do we use autonomous agents in our job?

回到我记不清的那些事和鲍勃·迪伦，我认为钱实际上让人成为更好的投资者。

Going back to I don't remember that and Bob Dylan and that, I I think actually money makes people better investors.

我跟一些最成功的朋友聊过，问他们：变得富有有没有让你成为更好的投资者？

I've spoken to some of my most successful friends, and I say, has becoming rich made you a better investor?

我很想听听你的答案。

I'm intrigued to hear your answer.

你赚的钱越多，变得越好了吗？

Have you become better the more money you've made?

如果我们把钱当作成功的衡量标准的话。

Well, if we use money as a proxy for success.

有趣的是，对于一些平庸的公司，我们曾考虑换掉CEO，但问题是，这家公司本身就很平庸，而我们能请来的人，自己都得已经身家几亿美元了。

It's funny, you know, with some of our mediocre companies, we thought about swapping out the CEO, and it's like, well, the problem is it's a mediocre company, and anybody we would put in would have to already be worth, you know, a couple $100,000,000.

那他们为什么要这么做呢？

So why would they do it?

所以你只能勉强继续和现有的团队一起撑着，因为你根本请不来比他们更优秀、却还没成功的人。

And so you've been forced to sort of limp along with the existing team because you're just not gonna recruit someone better that wouldn't be successful.

除非一个人赚了很多钱，否则没人会认可他。

There's no validation unless they've made a lot of money.

所以第一点，钱是成功的代名词，而成功是经验与何时、如何做决策的验证的结合。

So number one, it's a proxy for success, and success is a combination of experience and validation of when and how to make decisions.

对我来说，每个决策都包含两个部分。

For me, there's two components to every decision.

一个是逻辑，另一个是直觉。

There's the logic, and the second is the intuition.

你需要直觉。

And you need the intuition.

所以，自主代理目前乃至短期内都无法具备直觉。

And so the one thing that the autonomous agents aren't gonna prohave is intuition, not anytime soon.

所以我们需要人。

And so we need people.

我们需要良好的直觉来做正确的决策。

We need good intuition to make good decisions.

如果没有这一部分，你是不会成功的。

And without that component, you're not gonna succeed.

所以在我看来，也许我的直觉更好，这正是我更成功的原因。

So in my humble opinion, maybe I've got better intuition, and that's the reason I've been more successful.

你的直觉什么时候最不准？你从中学到了什么？

When's your intuition been most wrong, and what did you learn from it?

好问题。

Good question.

首先，你怎么确定那是真正的直觉，而不是一厢情愿？

The first thing is, how do you know it's really intuition and not wishful thinking?

所以这是我一直以来的经验。

So that's the first thing I've had.

我逐渐意识到，直觉几乎从不出错，出错的是我以为那是直觉。

I've learned over time that intuition was almost never wrong, But what I was wrong was me thinking it was intuition.

那根本就是一厢情愿。

It was nothing but wishful thinking.

你什么时候一厢情愿得太多？

When did you wishful think too much?

当我遇到一个我喜欢的创业者时，他很聪明，但可能太安逸了。

When I found an entrepreneur that I liked, it was smart, but maybe too comfortable.

也许我更喜欢他这个人，但他不够疯狂。

Maybe a a person I liked as a human being more, and they weren't crazy enough.

他们真的不够有动力。

They weren't really driven enough.

他们没有那种不服输的劲头。

They didn't have that chip on their shoulder.

他们没有那种执念。

They didn't have that obsession.

你知道吗？

You know?

因为，你知道，你希望和你喜欢的人合作。

Because, you know, you wanna work with people you like.

所以，我最喜欢的那些人，往往都让我失望，也让自己失望。

And so most of the people that I liked were the ones that let me down and let themselves down.

真正让你惊讶的是那些你相处起来有摩擦、有点尖锐、有点咄咄逼人，可能你并不太喜欢的人。

It's the people that you struggle with that are a little sharp edged, that are a little aggressive, and that you may not like as people that are like, wow.

好的。

Okay.

但也许正是这些人会成功。

Well, but they might be the ones that succeed.

你必须找到他们身上那种让你喜欢并愿意帮助他们的人性核心。

And you have to find that core of humanity in them that you can like them and help them.

但大多数最成功的人在社交上都会面临挑战。

But most of the most successful people are gonna be challenged socially.

彼得·法ント姆曾经告诉我，最优秀的创始人会让你感到不安，我觉得这非常正确。

Peter Phantom once told me the best founders make you feel uncomfortable, and I think that's very true.

杰里，作为大使，你有改变吗？

Have you changed as an ambassador, Jerry?

是的。

Yes.

如果你不改变，你就会灭亡。

You if you don't change, you die.

改变才能让你适应这个世界。

Changing is what allows you to adapt to the world.

我的意思是，在人工智能领域，如果你关注特征方面，最有趣的是李飞飞的新创业项目，关于对世界的视觉表征。

I mean, the most interesting thing if in AI, if you look at feature stuff is Fei Fei Li's new startup about this visual representation of the world.

我的意思是，她明确指出，语言作为描述世界的工具是非常有限的。

I mean, what she's clearly articulated is that, you know, language is is a very subpar descriptor of the world.

它就是受限的。

It's it's just limited.

因此，对于自主代理来说，我们需要一种新的系统，能够通过视觉识别世界，从而为自主代理提供对现实的客观视角。

So for autonomous agents, we need a new system where we can visually recognize the world to be able to have an an objective view of reality for the autonomous agent.

这就是为什么我们需要诗人，因为语言无法充分细致地描述世界，但我们能让你感受到它。

That's why we have poets because we can't really describe the world in enough detail with language, but we can give you a feeling about it.

我认为，我们必须清楚地意识到，用语言理解世界是有局限性的。

I think that that what we have to do in the world is to definitely be aware that we have limitations in understanding that with language.

我觉得‘局限性’这个说法很有趣，老兄。

I think limitations is interesting, dude.

我经常反思遗憾。

I I often reflect on regret.

我喜欢待在欧洲。

I love being in Europe.

我有家人。

I have family.

我在欧洲赚了很多钱，这很棒。

I make a lot of money in Europe, which is great.

但我从未尝试去好莱坞当演员，我只是在想，我会不会为此后悔。

But I never tried to go to Hollywood as the actor, and I'm just wondering if I'll regret that.

作为一个睿智的前辈，你会怎么对我说？

What would you say to me as a wise OG?

你知道吗，我曾经和一位名叫肯尼思·布拉纳的英国演员共进午餐，他正好在思考这个问题。

You know, there's a great British actor I had lunch with once named Kenneth Branagh, and he was reflecting on exactly that question.

他说，他拍过好莱坞电影。

He said, he's made Hollywood movies.

但他也做了很多戏剧工作，尤其是莎士比亚的作品。

He but he's done a lot in theater, a lot with Shakespeare.

他说，我知道，我本可以像奥利弗那样，在晚年去好莱坞拍电影，但我没有。

And he said, you know, I could have been more like Olivier that went to Hollywood and did Hollywood films late in life, but I didn't.

我选择了另一条路。

I chose a different path.

对于布兰加来说，我认为他对自己没有搬到好莱坞感到非常满意。

And for Branagh, I think he was very happy he didn't move to Hollywood.

他本可以拥有那样的职业生涯。

He could have had that career.

他现在65、66岁了，回首往事，他说，是的。

And he's 65, 66 now looking back, and he's saying, yeah.

我本可以成为那样的人，但你知道吗？

I could have been that, but you know what?

我真的很高兴自己没有那样做。

I'm really happy I didn't do that.

所以，也许你就像肯尼思·布兰纳。

So maybe you're like Kenneth Branagh.

你会庆幸自己没有去好莱坞的。

You're gonna be happy you didn't do the Hollywood.

我们一开始是在纽约起步的。

I didn't we we started in New York.

我从未离开过阿斯彭。

I've never left Aspen.

我曾在纽约部分时间居住。

I lived in New York part time.

我从未搬离阿斯彭。

I never moved away from Aspen.

杰夫和我在纽约创立了洞察公司，而我负责西海岸，因为对我而言更方便。

Jeff and I found of Insight in New York City, and I cover the West Coast because it was a lot quicker for me.

但杰夫和我在头十年里几乎天天在飞机上度过，这就是我们处理的方式。

But Jeff and I just lived on airplanes for the first ten years, you know, and that's how we handled it.

那时候，这可是相当革命性的。

Back in the day, that was pretty revolutionary.

记得吗？

Remember?

硅谷那时全是关于人们在街上散步。

Silicon Valley was all about people walking down the street.

有风投说，我只投资离我办公室五英里以内的项目。

There was VCs that said, I don't invest in anything more than five miles from my office.

老兄，如果你骑自行车都到不了那儿，这生意就别想了。

Dude, if you can't cycle there, it's not a deal.

我觉得，那就是关键。

That was the thing, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，它看起来是这样。

I mean, it look.

你选择你的生活。

You you choose your life.

你选择你的道路。

You choose your path.

如果你得到了你想要的，并且在不断成长，就不应该后悔。

You shouldn't regret it if you're getting what you want and you're growing as a person.

回首过去，最重要的是你对自己有了什么了解？

The most important thing looking back is what have you learned about yourself?

当我跟我们年轻的合伙人谈话时，比如你请过杰夫·利伯曼做你的节目，还有我们其他的合伙人，我会说：伙计们，你们知道吗，除非你内心有清晰的自我认知，并且对自己的决定感到安心，否则像你们这样早早变得极其富有并没有太大意义。

When I would talk to our younger partners, like you had Jeff Lieberman on your show and some of our other partners, I'd say, hey, guys, you know, it's it doesn't help to get super rich early like you have unless internally you you have a sense of self and you're comfortable with the decisions you make.

因为这才是关键。

Because that's the key thing.

你知道，你可能很早就取得了巨大成功，但你必须内化这份成功，认清自己失败的地方。

You know, you you can become super successful early, but you've got to internalize that success, recognize where the failures are.

如果我真有什么智慧，那是因为我摔得够惨，也从中吸取了教训。

If I have any wisdom at all, it's because I fucked up so much and I've learned from it.

我年轻时就赚到了钱，但那时我也是个酒鬼。

I made money very young, and I was also an alcoholic.

一次次严重失败、醉得不省人事，再加上母亲对我这个醉醺醺的儿子感到失望，这些经历让我真正明白了生活的本质。

And the combination of failing badly and passing out drunk many times and my mother being disappointed in the drunk son that she had actually showed me, like, what life's really about.

我甚至非常感激自己曾经的失败和那种状态。

I'm so grateful almost for failing and being like that.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

你得知道，亨特·汤普森是一位住在阿斯彭附近作家，我曾经非常喜爱他的作品。

You've gotta go Hunter Thompson was a writer that lived near the Aspen area who I used to love Hunter Thompson's works.

他说，除非你真正越过界限，否则你永远不会真正了解它的存在。

He said, you really don't know the edge unless you go over it.

显然你做到了。

And clearly you did.

哦，老兄。

Oh, dude.

我早就无数次跨越过那些该死的界限了。

I've been over so many fucking Chinese.

所以，了解边界，哈里，这才是关键。

So knowing the edge, Harry, that's what it's all about.

我们都得越过边界，然后希望还能活着讲出这段经历。

We've got to all go over the edge and hope to live to tell about it.

这才能让你真正拥有那种认知。

That's what gives you the sense of knowing.

这会带给你生活中的喜悦，也让你在人生旅途中感到从容与安心。

That gives you joy in life and gives you a sense of ease and comfort as you move through it.

你是什么时候越过界限的？

When did you go over the edge?

嗯，我做的是另一种不同的。

Well, I did a different kind.

19岁那年，我被肯尼亚内罗毕的美国国际大学录取了。

At 19, I got accepted to United States International University in Nairobi, Kenya.

所以1977年，我上了飞机，先去欧洲， hitchhike 了几个星期，然后去非洲待了六个月。

So 1977, I get on a plane, go to Europe, hitchhike around for a couple of months, and then I go spend six months in Africa.

我每个周末都会和BOMAS的导演一起记录传统舞蹈。

I would spend weekends documenting traditional dances with the director of BOMAS.

我深入到偏远地区，肯尼亚的面积和德克萨斯州差不多，却有13个主要部落、76个独立氏族和方言，我们想把一切都记录下来。

I was out in the hinterland, and Kenya is the size of Texas with, you know, 13 major tribes with 76 individual clans and dialects, and we wanted to document it all.

周末外出，和这些人们一起生活，就是跨越了界限。

And going out and living with these people in the weekends was going over the edge.

我的意思是，我吃了一些我从没想过自己会再吃的东西。

I mean, I ate things I'd never believed I'd eat again.

我的意思是，我住过和山羊一起的小茅屋。

I mean, I had lived in little huts with goats.

你知道的。

You know?

那景象可不怎么好看。

It was not a pretty sight.

老兄，你创建的这家公司，很多人，包括我，都渴望拥有。

Dude, you've built a firm that many, and including me, would would aspire to.

我只是想了解一些智慧。

I just wanted to understand some wisdom.

以你现在的见识，回过头看，有什么策略或产品决策是你当初基于洞察做出、但现在却希望没做的？

Knowing all you know now, what strategy did you do with insight or product did you do with insight that with the benefit of hindsight, you maybe wish you hadn't done?

你学到了什么？

What did you learn?

哦，那些我们没做的。

Oh, that we hadn't done.

在Insight的早期，我们犯了个大错，雇了一个名人来负责Insight欧洲业务。

In the early days of Insight, the big mistake, we hired some famous guy to start Insight Europe.

六个月后，我们就关闭了。

And after six months, we shut it down.

那是个大错特错。

It was a it was a mistake and a half.

我们当时还不够成熟去这么做。

We were not mature enough to do that.

欧洲呢，你知道的，我们从一开始就特别喜欢欧洲。

And Europe was something well, you know, we we loved Europe early on.

第一支基金在巴黎投资了一家公司，叫SLP。

Fund one had an investment called SLP in Paris.

第二支基金投资了一家叫Metiquatro的西班牙公司，后来上市了。

Fund two had a company called Metiquatro in Spain that went public.

那是一次巨大的成功。

That was a big win.

我们也在葡萄牙做过交易。

We did deals in Portugal.

我们在九十年代在捷克共和国做过投资。

We did deals in The Czech Republic in the nineties.

所以我们想，哦，不如搞一个基金吧。

So we thought, oh, let's do a fund.

大错特错。

Big mistake.

差异太大了。

Too much difference.

我们需要一直待在纽约一起工作。

Too much we needed to stay in New York together.

我们需要专注。

We needed to focus.

我们需要互相学习。

We needed to learn from each other.

在欧洲有团队太具有挑战性了。

Having people in Europe was too challenging.

这是我们犯的一个错误。

That was a mistake that we made.

所以我总是说，我们卖给有限合伙人的产品是我们投资决策的质量，而远程决策会削弱这种质量。

So I always say the product that we sell our LPs is the quality of our investment decisions, and that reduces with remote decision making.

你同意吗？还是你觉得如今远程决策同样有效？

Do you agree, or do you think that today, remote decisions work just as well?

这取决于团队。

That's a function of the team.

这取决于参与的人，以及经验。

That's a function of who's involved and then a function of experience.

你知道的。

You know?

总的来说，如果我要投资一家公司，我会对远程管理非常怀疑，因为如今人类确实需要它。

Overall, if I were to invest in a company, I would be very suspicious of remote management because human beings today need it.

当我们向人类自主代理迈进时，这是个好问题。

As we move to autonomous agents in human beings, that's a good question.

你知道的。

You know?

这是个非常好的问题。

That's a very good question.

我不知道这个功能会怎么发展，但过去在远程管理的情况下。

I don't know how the feature's gonna play out, but in the past, remotely managed situation.

对我来说，因为我不住在纽约。

I know for me, because I didn't live in New York.

作为联合创始人，我频繁往返飞行——飞来飞去、飞来飞去，这对我的团队来说真的很困难。

As a cofounder, it was really hard on my team for me to fly in, fly out, fly in, fly out.

因为你必须远程做决定。

And because you have to make decisions remotely.

你得和创业者坐在一起。

You have to sit with an entrepreneur.

你在旧金山，却必须立刻做出承诺。

You're in San Francisco, and you have to commit now.

而且你们在纽约有一整个团队。

And you've got a whole team in New York.

你知道，当一个远程人员真的很难，你知道。

You know, it's really tough being that remote guy, you know.

如果你们都在本地，都在同一个办公室里，明天就得做决定。

If you're all local and you're all sitting in the same office, you gotta make a decision tomorrow.

这要容易得多。

It's a lot easier.

所以我会说，远程决策非常困难。

So I would argue that remote decision making is very difficult.

你提到了势头，以及势头在某些方面的重要性。

You mentioned momentum and the importance of momentum in some ways.

批评者认为，势头对200亿美元基金来说是个挑战，体现在其部署速度和高价上。

Critics have suggested that momentum was a challenge for the $20,000,000,000 fund and the speed with which it was deployed and the high prices.

凭借你丰富的经验和智慧，杰里，我非常感兴趣。

Just with the wisdom and experience you have, Jerry, I'm fascinated.

你怎么看待那只基金？

How do you reflect on that fund?

你可以纵观所有风投基金，看看它们的成立年份，比如1999年、2004年或2005年的基金。

One correlation is you can look across all VC funds and look at their vintage, whether it's a '9 vintage or 2004, 2005 vintage.

而你能发现的唯一与成功相关的因素就是时机。

And the one correlation you can make to success was timing.

如果你在2005年或2006年设立了一只基金，你就能很好地抓住2008年移动互联网兴起的机遇——当时史蒂夫·乔布斯从AT&T获得了1000万订阅用户。

If you did a fund in 2005, 2006, you were in great shape to take advantage of the mobile thing that started happening in 2008 when Steve Jobs got 10,000,000 subscribers from AT and T.

那时，移动互联网才真正开始兴起。

That's when mobile became real.

所以，如果你有2005年或2006年的基金，你就有机会投资到一些最杰出、最具标志性的公司。

So if you had an of o five, o six fund, you had a chance to get some of the best, most iconic companies.

但如果你在2009年才设立基金，你就错过了Twitter的早期投资机会。

But if you signed a fund in 2009, you're gonna miss being early in Twitter.

你也错过了Facebook的早期投资机会。

You're gonna miss being early in Facebook.

你会错过参与优步的机会。

You're gonna miss being in Uber.

你会错过这一切。

You're gonna miss all that.

所以时机是最重要的，无论你是早期还是后期投资。

So timing is the most important thing, whether you're early stage or late stage.

你不能把它应用到一个整体的通用策略上。

You can't apply it to just an overall general strategy.

这取决于你投资的时间点。

Depends on the timing of when you did the investment.

你觉得现在

Do you

是创办新基金的最佳时机吗？

think now is the best time ever to be starting a new fund?

绝对是最佳时机。

Absolutely the best time.

你正处在一个巨变之中。

You're in a sea change.

人类将不再主导软件的决策。

Humans are no longer gonna be the decision makers about software.

主导决策的将是自主代理。

It's gonna be autonomous agents.

这场巨变、这场海啸与过去任何一次都截然不同，那些能够拥抱这一新模式的人，现在可以从零开始，从而对那些因已功成名就而无法快速转型的旧模式成功者形成巨大优势。

This sea change, this tsunami is so different than anything that's come in the past that people that embrace this new model can embrace it from scratch right now, gonna have a huge advantage over people that have been successful with older models that don't quite move fast enough because they're already rich.

他们已经赚了很多钱。

They already made a lot of money.

让老狗快速行动很难。

Hard to get old old dogs to move fast.

那么，乔伊，你对重返赛场感觉如何？

How do you feel about getting back in the game then, Joey?

你正在和我一起做这个节目。

You're doing this show with me.

你在谈论自动化。

You're talking about automatizations.

听起来你这只老狗还挺能跑的。

Like, seems like you're an old dog moving quite fast.

这里有个秘密。

Here's the here's the secret.

这才是真正的秘密。

Here's the the real secret.

我从未退出过这个游戏。

I never left the game.

我从内部退休了。

I retired from inside.

我退出了条款谈判。

I retired from negotiating term sheets.

我退出了董事会席位。

I retired from board seats.

我退出了内部投资委员会的会议。

I retired from internal investment committee meetings.

我退出了与有限合伙人共进晚餐和接听有限合伙人电话的工作，但我并没有真正退休。

I retired from having dinners with LPs and answering LP phone calls, but I didn't retire.

我从未独自做过任何投资，所有我参与的投资都是别人介绍给我的，而我信任并喜欢这些人。

I haven't done a single investment on my own that someone didn't bring me that I love and I trust.

我所参与的每一笔投资——超过100笔——都来自我身边的人，他们对我说：杰里，我需要你帮我思考一下这件事。

Every investment that I've done, which is over 100, has come from someone close to me and said, Jerry, I need your help to help me think about this thing.

通过帮助他人的过程，我最终也参与了进去。

And through that process of trying to help someone else, I end up in it.

这很有趣，因为这不是你一个人在经历的事情。

And that's been fun because it's an experience that you're not doing on your own.

你是在和你关心的人一起经历这些。

Your experience you're doing with people you care about.

在我们快速做个总结之前，最后一个话题。

Final one before we do a quick find.

你认为风险投资的未来是孤注一掷吗？

Do Do you believe the future of Venture is like the go big or go home?

我们看到安德里森·霍罗威茨的15号基金。

We see Andreessen Rays 15.

我们有Insight这样的超级平台。

We have Insight, a mega platform.

我们还有GC和Lightspeed这样的超级平台。

We have the mega platforms of GC and Lightspeed.

现在是不是非赢即输？

Is it go big or go home now?

这正是我玩游戏的唯一方式。

That's the only way I played the game.

我的做法就是全力以赴，比如2009年我投资推特的时候。

And, I mean, I went big on my things, you know, when I invested in Twitter in 2009.

那时候只有三十多人，没有任何收入。

There was 30 something people, no revenue.

我的基金团队说：‘你是不是疯了？’

My fund were like, are you kidding me?

那是一个关键时刻，我的合伙人允许我做出这项投资。

Was a watershed moment that my partners allowed me to make that investment.

你看到了什么？

What did you see?

我看到的，这真的很有趣，比如我们早期的投资——Twitter，我称之为‘全球的状态更新’，这个想法太出色了，简直超乎想象。

What I saw, and this is really interesting, like our early investments, the idea of Twitter, which I called the status update for the world, was so brilliant, so over the top.

它的创意远远超过了团队执行它的能力。

It was far better than anybody on the team's ability to execute against it.

所以我认为，Twitter 本可以成为一个更加令人瞩目的公司，但风投介入后制造了政治斗争，早早地解雇了杰克·多西，还引发了一系列问题。

So I think Twitter could have been infinitely a more interesting company, But VCs got involved and created politics, and they fired Jack Dorsey early, and they created issues.

公司因为解雇创始人之一而深受创伤，变得一团糟。

And the company was pretty messed up from that trauma of firing one of the founders.

但与此同时，他们非常兴奋，用户社区也在不断增长。

And at the same time, they were very excited and the community was growing.

社区在帮助它。

The community was helping it.

对我来说，我看到了一个难以复制的绝佳创意。

And for me, I saw an incredible idea that wasn't easily replicated.

它的势头足够强劲，对我来说这简直是不言而喻的决定。

And there was enough momentum to it that this was for me a no brainer.

这是我押上自己全部声誉的一次赌注。

And it was the the bet that I put my entire reputation on the line.

我让杰夫·霍恩和德文·帕雷克和我一起参与，我们极力推动这件事。

I got Jeff Horn and Devin Parekh to jump in with me on this, and we I pushed really, really hard.

我们从见到团队到完成投资，不到三十天，这笔投资最终成为公司的一个转折点，让我们进入了当时尚未涉足的消费领域等方向。

We did that investment less than thirty days from the time I met the team and the time we closed, And it turned out to be a watershed investment for the company and got us into lots of things like consumer and things we weren't doing at the time.

那只是因为这个创意的质量实在太出色了。

That was, that was just because the quality of that idea was insanely great.

你有没有过信心低谷的时候？

Did you ever have a trough in confidence?

我很幸运，因为自从进入这个行业以来，我每年都亏钱。

I was lucky because I was losing money every year I've been in this business.

我失败了。

I failed.

所以我一直保持着平衡，我知道自己会失败。

So I was always, you know, balanced in that I knew I was gonna fail.

我知道这会很痛苦，但我也知道我会赢一些，你知道的。

I knew it was gonna be miserable, but I knew I was gonna win some, you know.

我们很幸运，做到了我们所做的事情，你知道的。

And we were fortunate to do what we did, you know.

我们非常非常幸运。

We were very, very fortunate.

但对我来说，失败一直是工作的一部分，我必须硬着头皮承受。

But failure to me was always part of my job, and I had to just suck it up.

因此，没有任何事情让我失去信心，因为我从第一天起就在面对和处理这些。

And so there was nothing that came down the pipe that caused me to lose confidence because I've been taking and dealing with it from day one.

听好了。

Listen.

我来跟你快速问答一轮。

I'm gonna do a quick fire round with you.

所以关于以赛亚的简短陈述，你立刻有什么想法？

So Isaiah's short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts.

对于今天刚毕业、首次求职的毕业生，你会给什么建议？

What advice would you give to a graduate entering the workforce today looking for a job for the first time?

我会让他去买一台Mac Mini，带上他的Open Claw，然后带着Open Claw去参加面试。

I would have him go buy a Mac Mini, have an Open Claw, and go to the, a job interview with his Open Claw.

谁是最好的招聘猎头？

Who is the best sourcer?

当他们给你介绍一个项目时，你最关注哪个？

When they bring you a deal, you pay most attention to it.

哦，这很简单。

Oh, that's easy.

Insight的合伙人，我的意思是，我们真正打造的是全球最出色的招聘引擎之一。

The the partners at Insight, I mean, what what we've really built is one of the great sourcing engines of the world.

我的意思是，迈克·特里普莱特、杰夫·利伯曼、德文，这些人全都专注于招聘和管理他们的团队。

I mean, Mike Triplett, Jeff Lieberman, Devin, these guys all just were focused on sourcing and managing their teams.

他们要通过Insight的严格尽职调查并最终获得融资，这本身就是一项了不起的成就。

And they and to get through the gauntlet of insight due diligence and get to something that could be funded was a pretty big accomplishment.

我认为这些人是世界上顶尖的招聘专家。

I think that those guys were the absolute best sourcers in the world.

你认识的单个最厉害的项目筛选者是谁？

Who is the single best picker that you know?

就是那种能在别人看不到价值的地方发现机会的人。

Like, they see value where others don't.

我不想抬高谁的名声，但彼得·芬顿和早期的约翰·多尔，他们在挑选项目方面简直出类拔萃。

I don't wanna build egos up, but Peter Fenton, John Doar early on, those guys were astounding at picking deals.

你经历过的最难忘的首次创业者会面是哪一次？

What is the single most memorable first founder meeting you've had?

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

我曾邀请Truecaller的创始人从瑞典来到阿斯彭。

I had the founders of Truecaller in Sweden come to Aspen.

我说我不会投资他们，但他们用最后的钱买了飞往阿斯彭的机票。

I I said I'm not gonna invest in them, but they took their last dollars to get a plane ticket to Aspen.

他们来找我，这件事后来被阿米拉·弗拉蒂在《信息》杂志上报道过。

And they came to me, and it was this was written about in the information by Amira Fratti, the story about it.

但基本上，这些家伙人很好，我实在不忍心让他们失望。

But basically, these guys were nice guys, and I couldn't let them down.

我不想直接告诉他们我不打算投资，但我愿意帮他们。

I didn't want told them I don't want to invest, but I'll help you.

最后我帮了他们，给了他们一些钱，让这家公司取得了成功。

And I ended up helping them and giving them some money and making it a successful company.

几年前这家公司上市了，多年来一直表现优异。

And it went public a few years ago, and it was a great company for a number of years.

但那是我不想去涉足的一个。

But that's one I did not wanna go into.

我不想去瑞典，但他们来找我时，我特别喜欢这个人，于是我就答应了。

I didn't wanna go to Sweden, but I liked the guy so much when they came out and asked me, I said, okay.

我必须得做。

I gotta do it.

二手车销售员和软件销售员有什么区别？

What's the difference between a used car salesman and a software salesman?

二手车销售员知道自己在撒谎。

The used car salesman knows that he's lying.

我喜欢这个说法。

I love it.

你有OpenAI，有Anthropic，还有Grok。

You've got OpenAI, you've got Anthropic, and you've got Grok.

作为代言人，你最想加入哪一个？

Which would you most want to be in as an ambassador?

这取决于你在哪个阶段让我参与。

It depends what stage you get me a shot in.

我给你OpenAI的报价是5亿美元，给你Anthropic的报价是3.8美元。

I'm I'm getting you a shot in OpenAI at 500, and I'm giving you Anthropic at $3.80.

我都接受。

That's a I take them both.

我都接受，但对我来说，还是OpenAI，因为有八亿人在用它。

I take them both, but I think for me, it's it's OpenAI because I got 800,000,000 people doing it.

有八亿人在用它。

You got 800,000,000 people doing it.

当你突破十亿用户时，才算真正成功。

When you cross a billion, then you're there.

我不太看好比特币。

Like, I'm not that big a Bitcoin fan.

我对一些加密货币项目感兴趣，但在用户数量达到十亿之前，我对任何消费类科技产品都持怀疑态度。

I'm big in in a couple of crypto things, but until you get to a billion users, I'm suspicious of of any consumer technology.

我明白。

I get you.

但你不觉得谷歌和Gemini凭借其分布优势和推进速度，仍然能完胜吗，丹尼斯？

But do you not think Gemini and Google can still wipe the floor with the distribution advantage that they have, Dennis, and the speed that they're moving?

他们可以。

They can.

而且从长远来看，他们是更好的资产。

And they are long term better assets.

如果我有一个自主代理业务，同时拥有Gmail，那你就会拥有一个OpenAI不具备的绝佳资产。

They've got if I have an autonomous agent business and I've got Gmail, you're gonna have a phenomenal asset that OpenAI doesn't have.

但问题是谁能先让8亿用户达到十亿。

But the issue is who's got 800,000,000 people getting to a billion first.

我的意思是，你可以说他们在其他产品上，比如YouTube，已经有十亿用户了。

I mean, look, you can say there's a billion users on their other properties like YouTube and things.

但如果你能把OpenAI的聊天机器人转化成我自己的Jerry Murdoch自主代理，就像ChatTPT那样——我认为这正是彼得·斯坦布里格要做的，那你就会拥有一个极其出色的业务。

But if you can convert OpenAI's chatbot to my own Jerry Murdoch autonomous agent from ChatTPT, which is I think what Peter Steinbringer is gonna do, you're gonna have an insanely great business.

人们对于拥有金钱这件事，有哪些不了解却应该知道的事情？

What do people not know about having money that they should know?

答案很简单。

Very easy answer.

金钱本身并不会附带使用说明。

Money does not come with instructions.

这什么意思？

What does that mean?

嗯，你买其他任何东西，都会附带说明。

Well, everything else you buy, you get.

比如你买了一辆Rivian，它会附带使用手册。

You know, you got a Rivian, it comes with instructions.

你买一部iPhone，它也会附带使用说明。

You get an iPhone, it comes with instructions.

但金钱不会附带说明，所以你需要学会尊重它。

Money doesn't come with instructions, so you need to learn to respect it.

这是一种能量。

It's energy.

金钱相当于能量，你需要尊重它。

Money is the equivalent of energy, and you need to respect it.

你知道，你不会在家里离开时让灯一直开着，空调整天开着吧。

You know, you don't just, leave the lights on at home and the air conditioner on your home all day long while you're gone.

你要尊重能量。

You respect energy.

你要以尊重的态度对待它，用它来做有益的事，让它发挥作用，而不是愚蠢地浪费它。

You you treat it with respect, and you use it for good, and you use it to make things happen, and you don't waste it foolishly being an idiot.

你不想去拉斯维加斯，把一百美元钞票随便发给陌生人吧。

You don't wanna go to Las Vegas and hand out $100 bills to just random people.

把这种能量用去做些了不起的事。

Take that energy and do something great.

我的意思是，我不确定。

I mean, I don't know.

是拉里·佩奇说过，如果他有多余的钱，他会直接给埃隆，让他去建造改变世界的东西。

It was Larry Page that said if he had extra money, he'd just give it to Elon to let him build things to change the world.

我认为，如果你有钱，你就拥有能量，可以把这些能量交给创业者。

I I think that if you've got money, you've got energy, you can give it to entrepreneurs.

他们会做出惊人的事情。

They'll do amazing things.

你是在比较晚的年纪才有了孩子。

You had kids quite later in life.

是的。

Yeah.

你希望早点有孩子。

You wish you'd had them earlier.

你知道的，如果你过着精彩的人生，回望过去时你会说，这已经很棒了。

Well, you know, it's like if you've had a fantastic life, you look back and you say, it's already great.

我为什么要改变它呢？

Why would I change it?

你知道，第一点。

You know, number one.

第二点，当我年轻的时候，那个人还没准备好要孩子。

Number two, that guy, when I was younger, he wasn't ready for kids.

他当时只顾着创业。

He all he was doing was building a business.

他在创业。

He was building

如果你在有孩子的时候去建立洞察力，会怎样？

to build insight if you'd had kids during?

我可能会离婚，而且很可能是个很沮丧的人。

I would have been divorced and a pretty sad character probably.

你看，当杰夫和我去筹钱，到处碰壁的时候，他才30岁。

Look, I mean, when Jeff and I went out to raise money and we were getting sand kicked in our face, he was 30.

我当时35或36岁。

I was 35 or 36.