20VC：为何SaaS末日论纯属胡扯 | 为何中国将赢得人工智能战争 | 为何50%的风投根本不该存在，只是过客 | 为何股票补偿是硅谷隐藏的罪恶——与Lead Edge Capital的米切尔·格林对话

如果突然间所有这些工作都消失了，失业率达到百分之十、二十、三十，那可不是这样。

If all of a sudden all these jobs start to disappear, and you have ten, twenty, 30% unemployment, it's not.

这种情况不会发生。

It's not happening.

首先，人们总是认为这种变化会比实际来得更快。

First of all, people always think this change comes faster than it does.

大多数财务监管严格的大公司，根本无法使用Claude或ChatGPT。

Most big companies that are, like, financially regulated, you can't even go on to Claude or ChatGPT.

你甚至都无法登录系统来开展工作。

Like, you can't even, like, get on the system to do work.

顺便说一句，我们才刚刚走了五年。

And by the way, we're still five years in.

简直就像人们一个半月前才突然醒悟，惊呼天啊。

It's literally like people woke up a month and a half ago, and we're like, oh my gosh.

所有这些公司都要消失了，失业率会飙升到百分之三十。

All these companies are going to go away, and unemployment's going to 30%.

这太荒谬了。

It's nonsense.

这太可笑了。

It's silly.

十年后，我们会坐在这里，发现这真是个投资的好时机。

We're going to sit here in ten years, and we're going to have like it's going be an amazing time to invest.

你会看到一大批出色的新兴公司涌现出来，哦，会有很多这样的公司。

You're going have a bunch of amazing new companies come and create Oh, you're gonna have a bunch of them.

会有一些老牌公司彻底倒闭。

You'll have some legacy and companies that went to zero.

不是所有公司，甚至远不到所有公司。

Not all of them or anywhere near all of them.

你还是会去零售店。

You're still gonna go to retailers.

你还是会去理发。

You're still gonna get your haircut.

但我只是觉得，这将会是一个绝佳的投资时机。

But I just think it's gonna be, like, an amazing time to invest.

顺便说一句，在市场波动和股市赌场化期间，你应该买入那些基于盈利倍数的基本面良好的企业。

And by the way, during periods of volatility and, you know, the casinoization of the stock market, you want to buy fundamentally good businesses on multiples of earnings.

你是否担心这个世界正被梗文化主导，被固化了？

Do you worry that the world is just being memed, that the world is being calcified?

这个世界简直就是个钙化了的市场复制品。

The world is just a fucking calcium poly markets replica.

这简直太疯狂了。

It's totally insane.

这只是一个短暂的现象，还是说这是一个由社交媒体、多巴胺成瘾者和实时互动构成的新世界？

Is that a momentary thing, or is this a new world of social media, dopamine junkies, real time?

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

说实话，我多年来一直开玩笑说，社交媒体就像是社会的衰落。

Look, mean, I've joked for years that social media is like the demise of society.

这些东西需要被监管。

This stuff needs to be regulated.

它一定会被监管的。

It will be regulated.

信息传播的速度真是惊人。

It is incredible how fast information moves.

想象一下，如果推特在2008年和2009年就已经这么流行了。

Just imagine if Twitter had been big in two thousand and eight and 2009.

这简直不可思议。

It's absolutely incredible.

我要说，今天的股市构成与二十年前已经不同了。

And I will say that the makeup of the stock market is different today than it was twenty years ago.

被动型ETF的规模大得多。

Passive ETFs are much bigger.

散户交易来来去去，但你只需要在好公司打折时买入。

The retail stuff comes and goes like retail trading, but you just have to buy good businesses when they're on sale.

比如，如果你没有盈利，就不要以基本面的倍数去买好公司，因为那时没有底线。

Like, buy good businesses at multiples of fundamental if you don't have earnings, there is no floor.

但如果你有盈利，比如自由现金流，很多这些股票——尤其是互联网股票——其实并不便宜，原因就在于股票薪酬。

But if you have earnings, like in free cash flow, reason a lot of these stock or stocks and Internet stocks are actually still not cheap is because the stock based comp.

这些公司的股票薪酬简直疯狂到离谱。

Like, the stock based comp in a lot of these companies is totally nuts.

这些公司股权激励和股东稀释的规模非常高。

Like, the amount of equity compensation and dilution of shareholders is is very high.

我其实很惊讶，为什么没更多人谈论这个问题。

And I'm actually surprised more people don't talk about it.

那我们为什么不去讨论它呢？

Why are we not talking about it?

我们到底不知道哪些应该知道的事情？

What do we not know that we should know?

对于像Snapchat和OpenAI这样的公司，它们拥有不合理的高股票薪酬却无人质疑，这是否已成为一种新常态？

Are we in a new norm for the Snapchats and OpenAI's of the world to have unreasonably high SBC and no one question it?

一些大型公开市场投资者已经对此提出质疑一段时间了。

Some of the big public market investors have been questioning it for a while.

令人惊讶的是，更多人没有谈论这一点，也没有注意到这些大型硅谷公司中股票期权稀释的程度有多高。

It's surprising that more people don't talk about it and just look how much like stock option dilution there is at a bunch of these big Silicon Valley companies.

在硅谷之外，情况没那么严重，但稀释确实是实实在在的。

It's not as bad outside Silicon Valley, but like the dilution is real.

我惊讶于更多人没有谈论这一点。

I'm surprised more people don't talk about it.

应该发生什么？

What should happen?

比如，如果你是Snap的股东，而Avon现在正在推行一个礼品计划。

Like if you're a snap holder, and Avon is running a gifting program right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我不知道。

Like, I don't know.

我们根本不是积极的股东。

We're not activist shareholders at all.

我非常尊重像拉里·埃里森这样的企业家，他实际上对甲骨文进行了杠杆回购。

I have a lot of respect for entrepreneurs like Larry Ellison, who effectively did a levered recap of Oracle.

他基本上就是说，我有这么多自由现金流。

He he basically was like, I have all this free cash flow.

我要借入债务，回购大量股票。

I'm gonna borrow debt and buy back an enormous amount of stock.

在这个过程中，他做了什么？

And what did he do in the process?

他并没有把它卖给别人，而是继续维持公司运营。

He didn't sell it to was own, so he just kept making it.

他确保股价不会下跌，而不是上涨。

He'd make sure it can't go down, not up.

人们忘记了，在公司里，市值等于股份数量乘以股价。

People forget that in companies, there's it's market cap equals number of shares times price of shares.

因此，尊重这一点并对此保持自律的公司，

And so companies that respect that have discipline on that,

我认为，是非常强大的。

I think, are powerful.

我们看到那么多知名公司都陷入了低谷。

We've seen so many names that are so well known be in the dumps.

很多人在质疑：哦，当公司陷入低谷时，CEO和管理团队是否在买入呢？

And a lot of people are questioning, oh, well, are the CEOs and the management team buying when they're in the dumps?

ServiceNow的CEO就买入了300万美元的股票。

The ServiceNow CEO who bought $3,000,000 worth.

我认为Salesforce刚发布消息，说他们打算从昨晚的财报收益中回购500亿美元的股票，或者某个惊人的数字。

I think Salesforce just came out and said they're going to buy $50,000,000,000 of stock, or some crazy number from their earnings report last night.

是的，我同意你的观点。

No, I agree with you.

顺便说一句，公司应该回购股票。

By way, companies should be buying back stock.

那些不回购股票的公司，你应该质疑并问为什么。

Those that aren't buying back stock, you should question and ask why.

好吧，但ServiceNow买了300万美元的股票，这还不到他汽车收藏的价值。

Okay, but ServiceNow's bought $3,000,000 worth, which is less than his car collection.

是的，但我不确定，公司有没有大量回购股票？

Yeah, but I don't know, is the company buying a lot stock back?

我不清楚。

I don't know.

但你也要问，ServiceNow的CEO已经持有多少股票？

But you have to ask also ask, like, how much stock does the CEO of ServiceNow already own?

他持有3亿美元的股票吗？

Does he own $300,000,000 of stock?

他们可能会说，这应该能说明一些问题。

They're like, that should tell you something.

那些创始人在买入，或者公司大量回购股票的企业，会让我们对这些公司更加看涨，相比之下，其他公司则完全不是这样。

The companies where the, like, founders are buying or the companies are buying huge amounts of stock back, that to us would make one more bullish on that company versus, like, another company, a 100%.

我预计随着盈利数据陆续公布，你会看到更多像Salesforce这样的公司推出大规模股票回购计划来回购股票。

I would suspect as earnings come through, you know, you will see more things like like Salesforce, people put in place big buyback programs to start buying back stock here.

我觉得你会看到这种情况。

I think you'll see it.

我们之前聊过字节跳动。

We spoke about Bytedance a little bit.

嗯。

Mhmm.

多年来，大家都说字节跳动的估值折扣太低了。

Everyone for years has been like, oh, the Bytedance discount is so cheap.

字节跳动的情况很极端，因为它既有中国折扣，还是中国折扣中的折扣。

Bytedance is insane because there's the China discount, and Bytedance is the China discount on the China discount.

这听起来不错，但只有当这个折扣鸿沟收窄时，对你作为投资者才有利。

That sounds great, but it's only good for you as an investor if that discount chasm shrinks.

要让这个折扣鸿沟收窄，需要什么条件？

What's it gonna take for the discount chasm to shrink?

我认为在某种程度上，这种情况已经发生了。

I think it already to some degree, already is.

因此，私募市场的隐含估值倍数应由公开市场的投资决定。

So private market implied valuation multiple should be determined by public market investments.

你应该认为，如今一家软件公司，在私募市场上的估值应该比公开市场更低。

You should argue a software company today, like, should be getting done in the private markets cheaper than public markets.

但实际情况并不总是如此。

It definitely doesn't always occur like that.

阿里巴巴和腾讯应该是两家大型中国公司，它们的估值可以大致反映字节跳动应有的交易水平。

So Alibaba and Tencent should be two giant, you know, Chinese companies, should represent roughly how Bytedance should trade.

我最近几周甚至一个月都没关注过它们了。

I haven't looked at them in the last, like, couple weeks or month.

它们当时的市盈率在十几倍左右，不是EBITDA倍数，也不是收入倍数，而是市盈率，而且它们的增长其实并不快。

They were trading, like, mid teens earnings multiples, not EBITDA, not revenue, earnings multiples, multiples, and they don't really grow.

但这是一个每年增长25%到30%以上、产生巨额利润的业务，你只要给它一个市盈率，就能得出一个非常非常高的估值，基于基本面的盈利。

Now this is a business that, you know, grows 25, 30% plus a year, generates a tremendous amount of earnings, and you can stick like an earnings multiple on this company and get to a very, very big number, like fundamental earnings.

我认为Facebook现在股价对应市盈率在25到30倍左右，就用这个倍数吧。

And I think Facebook's trading like 25, 30 times earnings right now, like stick that multiple.

但也许这个倍数太高了，因为它是西方公司。

But then maybe that's too high because it's a Western company.

那就用中国公司的估值倍数来算吧。

So then put the China company multiples on it.

我认为在未来几年内，这家公司有可能实现每年700亿、800亿甚至1000亿美元的利润。

I think it is possible to see in a few years that this company is doing, you know, $70.80, 100,000,000,000 of earnings in the next five years.

是的。

Yeah.

但在去全球化、特朗普主导的世界里，我只是在提出另一种观点来加以理解。

But in a deglobalized Trump world, I'm I'm just doing the the kind of alternate argument here just to understand.

在去全球化、特朗普主导的世界里，它不会在美国上市，对吧？

In a deglobalized Trump world, I don't gonna list in The US, is it?

它在美国上市的可能性为零。

0% chance it'll list in The US.

不。

No.

我的意思是，对吧。

Mean, right.

所以我不清楚，当然。

So I have no clue, Sure.

不。

No.

它会在香港上市。

It'll list in Hong Kong.

但你知道，多年来人们一直在说，他们要让所有这些美国上市的中国公司退市，比如百度、携程、阿里巴巴。

But, you know, people have been talking for years that they're gonna, like, delist all these US these Chinese companies, Baidu, Ctrip, BABA.

但他们从未这样做过。

They never did.

在我看来，像阿里巴巴和腾讯这样的公司，我们的阿里巴巴股票在过去一年里从低点翻了一倍。

And to mine, like Alibaba and Tencent, our Alibaba stock has like doubled off the lows over the last year.

所以，如今中国市场的情绪比十八个月前好太多了。

So like sentiment today on China is a lot better than it was eighteen months ago.

当我们买入字节跳动股票的时候，你知道，我们买入的价格大约是2000亿美元。

When we were buying know, when we were buying Bytedance stock, like, you know, we're buying at a prices around $200,000,000,000.

我们认为，考虑到其盈利能力，风险调整后的回报简直不可思议。

Like, we we thought the risk adjusted reward given the earnings power was just, incredible.

别小看了中国。

Don't count China out.

我打赌他们会赢得人工智能领域。

I bet they win the AI world.

我打赌他们会赢。

I bet they win it.

你看。

Look.

中国了不起的地方在于，你可以在几年内建成一座核电站。

The great thing in China is you can build a nuclear power plant in a couple of years.

你可以轻松地建造发电厂。

You can build power plants, like no problem.

在美国，我们将在电力方面遇到重大问题。

In The US, we are going to run into major issues around power.

你为什么认为

Why do you think

他们会赢得人工智能领域？

they win the AI world?

只是因为

Just because of Because

电力、资源、消耗量，还有博士人数，以及他们对科技的重视程度。

of the power, resources, consumption, like number of PhDs, how much they value science and technology.

当然，有些事情可能会彻底改变这一局面。

And look, there's things that could totally change it.

比如，没人真正谈论量子计算。

Like, nobody's really talking about quantum.

我们根本不是量子领域的专家。

We are not quantum experts at all.

但这是否能让这些事情的效率成倍提升？

But is that something that could make these things exponentially more efficient?

那这个

How does that

这种认知会如何改变你的投资方式？

realization change how you invest?

我完全理解你的观点，我也同意。

I completely hear you, and I agree.

我认为我们仍然严重低估了中国的能力，或者只是选择不去思考它，把它搁置一旁。

I think we still dramatically underestimate the capability of China or just choose not to think about it or push it to one side.

但如果这就是现实，这会对你的未来投资心态产生什么影响？

But if that is the realization, how does that impact your go forward mindset on investing?

我们对字节跳动了解得很少。

That's we don't know a of Bytedance.

但这并不是赢家通吃。

But it's not like winner take all.

并不是说字节跳动赢了，谷歌和脸书就输了。

It's not that Bytedance wins and, like, Google and Facebook loses.

一年前，当我可能上过这个节目时，我不确定我们有没有聊过谷歌。

A year ago, when I was probably on the show, I don't I don't know if we talked about Google.

当时大家都以为谷歌要完蛋了。

Everybody thought Google was gonna lose.

他们说，哎，谷歌完蛋了。

They're like, ah, Google's dead.

完了。

It's done.

没人会再用它搜索了。

Like, nobody's gonna search it.

你看过去年的股价吗？

Seen the stock in the last year?

股价差不多翻了一倍。

Stock's, like, doubled.

现在它又要赢下一切了。

Now it's gonna win everything.

现在它要打败OpenAI和所有这些其他公司了。

Now it's gonna beat OpenAI and all these other things.

不。

No.

它们俩都会挺好的。

Like, they're both they're both gonna be fine.

对我们来说，这些大语言模型公司最大的问题是，它们真能实现盈利吗？

The the biggest question for us on these LLM model companies is can they ever turn, like, a real profit?

我真的不知道答案，我觉得现在没人能说得准。

Like, I just don't know the answer, and I don't think anybody really does right now.

我认为在美国，你还会看到另一件事，跟能源有关，而你至今还没怎么看到：地方社区会变得非常不满。

I think another thing you're going to see in The United States as it relates back to power, and you really haven't seen much of it yet, local communities getting, like, really upset.

你有个位于爱荷华州的小城镇，或者堪萨斯、俄亥俄、弗吉尼亚等地的小镇。

You have the small local town in Iowa or the small town in, you know, Kansas or Ohio or wherever, Virginia.

他们建了一个巨大的数据中心。

And they built this giant data center.

他们雇佣了你们所有的当地人。

They employed all your people.

他们雇佣了大量当地人为建设这个数据中心工作。

They employed a ton of people locally to build it.

然后他们建好了它。

They then built it.

现在它就停在那里，只有50个当地人在这里工作，而你们当地的电价却涨了三倍。

Now it sits there and has 50 local people that work there, your local power prices have tripled.

而且它是不是在污染环境之类的问题？

And like, is it polluting the environment and things like that?

它就是一个又大又丑的建筑。

It's just a big ugly building.

我认为你会看到真正的本地抵制，而且这不仅仅发生在美國。

I think you're gonna see real local pushback, and I don't think it's one of The United States.

我认为欧洲也可能如此。

I think it's probably Europe as well.

这些人的生活并没有比二十年前更好，而这些设施却建在他们家后院，硅谷和沿海地区的人却从中赚了数千亿、上万亿美元。

And it's like, hey, you know, these people that are not better off today than twenty years ago, and these things are in their backyard, and people in Silicon Valley and the coast are making tens of billions of hundreds of billions of dollars off.

我觉得这肯定会引发强烈抵制，必须对此进行监管。

I'm like, I think there's gonna be real pushback, and there needs to be regulation on it.

你不觉得气候问题是个奢侈议题吗？

Do you not think climate is a luxury problem?

我们在过去三到五年也担心过这个问题，但现在没人关心了。

We were also worried about it in the last three to five years, and now no one gives a shit about it.

我们确实应该担心这个问题。

We should be worried about it.

气候投资已经陷入低迷。

Climate investing is in the drains.

是的。

Yeah.

我们确实应该为此担忧。

We should be worried about it.

这可能很重要。

It's probably important.

你看，我们一直难以确定如何在这些领域投资，因为许多相关企业的资本效率很低。

Look, it's we've always struggled with how to invest there because of how capital inefficient a lot of those businesses are.

我认为中国在这方面有一些优势，比如他们能建设大规模的太阳能电站，或者做一些我们做不到的事情。

And I think just China has some advantages in that respect, whether it's like giant solar farms they can build or whether they can just do things that we can't do.

但我想说的是，

But I would expect, look.

如果你看看互联网，过去十年或十五年最大的创新都发生在中国。

If you look at the Internet, the biggest innovation in Internet is over the last decade or fifteen years is caught up China.

如果你想真正了解电子商务和社交媒体的发展方向，就去看看中国。

Like, if you actually wanna look where, like, ecommerce is going and, like, social media is going, is go look at China.

当《深海》上映时，这并不让我感到意外。

You know, it was not a surprise to me when Deep Sea came out.

但不要低估中国人的创造力和聪明才智，他们能以比美国人便宜得多的方式进行逆向工程和研发。

But don't underestimate Chinese creativeness and ingenuity to figure out how to reverse engineer and engineer things in much cheaper ways than Americans can do.

我可以问你一个问题吗？不专门谈字节跳动，我其实很想听听你对卖方的看法——当你看字节跳动这样的公司时，有很多机会可以卖出这些标的，但不特指字节跳动？

Can I ask you, going back to the not specifically on the Bytedance, I actually really want your advice on the sell side, which is like when you look at a Bytedance, there's many opportunities to sell in in a lot of these names, so not taking Bytedance specifically?

你怎么看待这个问题呢？

How do you think about, you know what?

我们持仓已经涨了三倍，已经持有了四年，现在该把筹码收起来了。

With three x up on where we are, we've been in it for four years, let's take chips off the table.

你如何看待随着时间推移调整仓位规模？

How do you think about sizing positions over time?

你在这方面有什么重要的经验或建议可以分享给我吗？

And have you got any big lessons or advice from me on that?

买入总是很吸引人。

Buying is glamorous.

卖出才是工作。

Selling is the job.

不断重新评估风险。

Constantly re underwrite.

这才是真正该做的事。

That is actually what it really is.

我们目标是在三到七年内实现2到5倍的回报。

And we're trying to make two to 5x in three to seven years.

如果把这一点放在25%的内部收益率曲线上，放进基金里，目标是实现净基金2到2.5倍的回报。

If you put that into a on a curve at the 25 IRR curve, put it into a fund to make it two to 2.5x net fund.

这正是我们想要做到的。

That's what we're trying to do.

这就是我们对投资者说的话。

That's what we tell our investors.

所以我们不断重新评估，比如：如果我们今天以55亿美元的价格买入字节跳动——据传泛大西洋资本正在出售大量股份，其他人也给出了更高的报价。

So we're constantly just re underwriting to saying like, okay, if we were gonna a bunch of Bytedance today at $5.5 which is where it's been reported that like General Atlantic is selling a bunch and there's other people, and we've been offered higher than that.

我觉得总是要问，它翻倍的概率有多大？

I think it's always like, what is the probability it can double?

然后我们看字节跳动，会分析它的基本盈利情况，觉得这个翻倍没问题。

And then we to Bytedance, we look at like what fundamental earnings are and be like, okay, this is doubling, no problem.

现在如果有人今天来找我们，说嘿，我愿意出1.3万亿美元，我们会直接拒绝。

Now if somebody came to us today and said, hey, I'll offer you $1,300,000,000,000 we'd tell a bunch.

因为并不是我不认为这家公司未来五年能实现1万亿美元的盈利——那是20倍，值2万亿美元——但存在风险，它的估值倍数会是多少？

Because it's not that I don't think the company will do $100,000,000,000 of earnings in the next five years, that's 20 times, that's worth $2,000,000,000,000 But there's a risk, what does it trade out on a multiple basis?

在那个价格下，我们的总投资回报率会是多少？

What would we be on our total investment at that price?

肖恩，你为增长支付了多远的溢价？

Sean, how far ahead are you paying for growth?

在某个时点，确实有个非常关键的时刻要说：是的，你已经为四年后的增长付了钱。

And at a point, there's a really valuable moment to go, yes, you're paying four years

是的，没错。

Yes, correct.

我们常说的是，这其实也帮我们避开了很多麻烦，那就是：十八个月后我们是否已经盈利？

What we like to say is this, I think this has actually kept us out of a lot of trouble too, which is like, are we in the money 18 out?

这就是我们的想法。

Like, that's what we think.

在合理的市盈率下，我们是否已经盈利？

With a reasonable multiple, are we in the

十八个月后能盈利吗？

money eighteen months out?

你能解释一下吗？

Can you unpack that?

你真正想说的是，

What you really

比如，如果我们今天投资，十八个月后收入达到2000万美元，按照合理的模型，我们是否已经盈利？

talking So like, if we invest today and revenues are $20,000,000 with a reasonable model at eighteen months out, are we in the money?

也就是说，在合理的市盈率下，而不是50倍收入的倍数。

Like, with a reasonable multiple, not 50 times revenues.

你有一个价格点，如果公司每年增长60%，以八倍或六倍的营收估值，我就已经回本了。

You had a price where if it's growing 60% a year, eight times revenue, six times revenue, it's like, okay, I'm in the money.

不。

No.

我还没让资金翻三倍，但至少我已经回本了；而不是像那样，天啊，要想回本，我还得卖到三十倍、四十倍营收。

I haven't tripled my money, but like, I'm start I'm in the money versus like, oh, Jesus, to be in the money, I'd still have to sell it for 30 times, 40 times revenue.

你们会像对待起搏器公司那样对待你们的投资公司吗？

Do you lie with your companies like the pacemaker company?

我不想太挑它们的毛病。

I didn't wanna pick on them so much.

没关系。

That's fine.

两千万到四千五百万，这太棒了，惊人，了不起。

20 to 45,000,000, which is great, phenomenal, fantastic.

但谁会买下这家公司呢？

But who's gonna buy that company?

我的意思是，有一批战略投资者会买下它。

I mean, there's a line of strategics that would buy it.

还有一些私募股权公司会

There's private equity firms that

买下它。

would buy it.

以一个不错的倍数吗？

At a good multiple?

是的。

Yeah.

我们会赚一大笔钱。

We'd make great money.

顺便说一下，你忘了我当初花多少钱买下的吗？

By the way, you forgot what I what what did I pay for it?

好的投资和好的公司是两件根本不同的事，而你试图把两者结合起来。

Good investment and good company are two very fundamentally different things too, and you're trying to, like, get the union of both of them.

有很多A+级别的公司，却以D-级别的价格出售。

Like, there's a lot of A plus companies at D minus prices.

我也不愿意以A+的价格去购买一家D-级别的公司。

Nor do I also want to buy a D minus company at an A plus price.

但你不想做这项投资吗？

But do not want to make that investment?

我经常在节目中听别人说，我从未在一笔好交易中赚到钱。

I'm always taught by most people on the show that I've never made money with a good deal.

我觉得，我强烈不同意这个说法。

See, like, I would strongly disagree with that statement.

有很多人2020年和2021年投资了优质甚至卓越的公司，但因为买入价格太离谱，结果没赚到钱。

Like there are a lot of people that invested in good companies, great companies in 2020 and 2021 at really stupid prices and didn't make money.

所以，关键是两者的交集。

So it's like it's the intersection of both.

你不是在试图以A+的价格买一个D级资产，那样根本就是零。

It's not like you're not trying to buy a D asset at an A plus price, that's like zero.

但如果你能以A+的价格买入一家B+公司，就能获得惊人的风险调整后回报。

But like if you can buy a B plus company at an A plus price, you can make like amazing risk adjusted returns.

但我们也会买入A+级别的公司。

But we also buy A plus companies too.

而且妙就妙在，你能做结构化的二级市场交易吗？

And you can buy like the great thing is, is can you do like structured structured secondaries?

二级市场交易？

Secondaries?

或者你能做一些非常独特的事情，比如拉里会做的那些操作吗？

Or can you do like really unique things like some of the stuff Larry will do and will do?

你能以B-到C+的价格买入一家A+公司或A级公司吗？

And can you buy an A plus company or an A company at like a B minus C plus price?

这些才是了不起的投资机会。

Those are like incredible deals.

你能以低价介入，收购那些需要流动性的旧基金中的原有有限合伙人吗？

Can you get in like cheap to buying out old LPs out of an old fund that need liquidity.

顺便说一句，我们离因英伟达财报不及预期而陷入衰退只差一步。

By the way, joke that we're an Nvidia earnings miss away from like a recession.

顺便说一句，如果你真遇到这种情况，很多老基金就会发现他们的DPI惨不忍睹。

By the way, if you get that, a bunch of old funds are going be like, they have horrible DPIs.

你会看到一大批有限合伙人想：算了，我还是把2013年或2015年基金里的份额卖了吧，这样就能以超低价买入新项目。

You're going to have all these LPs that are like, you know what, I'll sell an interest in this 2013 fund or this 2015 fund and be able to buy stuff super cheap.

但话说回来，人们也有不同的看法。

But look, there are also different beliefs.

很多人就是觉得：看啊，风险投资圈里有太多人愿意出任何价格，因为他们想抓住幂律效应，寻找下一个谷歌。

People are just like, oh, look, there are a lot of people in the venture business that are just like, I will pay anything because I'm trying to get like the power law, and I'm trying to find the next Google.

不过，你难道不会建议我吗？在这样一个上行空间几乎无上限、拥有大量千亿美元级公司的世界里，我应该对十亿美元前的估值更加灵活，而不是只愿意支付三亿或六亿美元。

Would you not advise me though that actually when you have a world where upside is relatively uncapped and you have trillion dollar companies, or at least many more $100,000,000,000 companies, I should be so much more elastic on my pre billion dollar entry price than paying 300 or 600,

我想是吧。

I guess.

不会，因为绝大多数公司根本不会变成那样。

No, because most companies don't become that, the vast majority.

顺便说一下，这取决于你如何向你的有限合伙人解释。

It just depends what you tell your LPs, by the way.

我们告诉我们的有限合伙人：在三到七年内实现两到五倍的回报，循环往复，以二十九小时的工作时间，实现两到两倍四分之一、两到两倍半的净基金回报，如果你能在二十年左右的时间内持续做到这一点，那你就是最顶尖的。

We tell our LPs make two to five x in three to seven years, rinse and repeat, generate two to two and a quarter x, two to two and a half x net funds with twenty nine hours, and it turns out if you can do that over, like, a twenty year period of time, you are, the best of the best.

老兄，我和SaaS到是的公司的杰森·莱姆金关系非常好。

Dude, I I'm very good friends with Jason Lemkin from SaaS to Yeah.

他最近在我主持的节目中说：‘去他的，选赢家、早期投资这些玩意儿。’

On a on a show with me very recently said, oh, fuck this picking winners, early stage stuff.

我只想做一个Anthropic的SPV。

I just wanna do an anthropic SPV.

这要简单得多。

It's much easier.

做这种事并不容易。

It's not easy to do this stuff.

我认为风险投资行业里有一半的人根本就不该干这行。

I think there I think 50% of people in the venture business should not actually be in this.

风险投资机构多了百分之五十。

There's 50% too many VCs.

可能还不止。

Maybe more.

可能有百分之七十。

There might be 70.

实际上，不只是风险投资机构的问题。

Actually, it's not only VCs.

还有私募股权和另类投资渠道。

It's private equity, alternative access.

你为什么这么说？

What makes you say that?

钱太多了，而且到处都是投机者。

There's too much money, and there's, like, too many tourists.

还有些人根本不具备投资所需的定价纪律。

And there's people that don't show, like, investing, you need to show discipline on price.

你去问问全球最顶尖的风险投资人，他们会说，最终价格才是关键。

Like, go talk to the greatest venture investors in the planet, and they'll be like, price matters at the end of the day.

再看看这些估值达到万亿美元的公司，最终能获得什么成果。

Again, let's see what all these companies get out at at the end of the day that are valued in the trillions of dollars.

但要明确的是，这样的公司并不多。

There aren't that many of them, to be clear.

对吧？

Right?

看看像Facebook、Google、Microsoft、Amazon和Nvidia这样的公司，它们创造了多少利润。

And look how much earnings a company like Facebook and Google and Microsoft and Amazon and Nvidia generate like profits.

我觉得有很多公司的估值远远超出了它们实际的盈利前景。

I think there's a lot of companies that are way ahead of themselves in terms of like valuations and what their profit numbers will be at

不过，你认为三年后风投领域的资金会更多还是更少？

Do the end of you think we will have more or less money in venture in three years' time, though?

可能更少。

Probably less.

总有一天，我不确定是三年、五年还是七年，但肯定会有这么一天。

At some point, I don't know if it's three years or five years or seven years, for sure.

到了2030年和2032年，人们会醒悟过来，发现他们还在抱着2012年和2015年的那些东西不放。

People are going to wake up in 2030 and 2032 and realize it's, oh my God, they're still all in this stuff from 2012 and 2015.

如果你没卖，那什么时候卖呢？

If you weren't selling, when are you gonna sell?

我想给年轻的投资经理和刚起步的基金创始人最好的建议是：流动性窗口有开有闭，一旦打开，就要抓住机会。

That's actually the best advice I would give to young fund managers and, like, people starting funds, is liquidity windows open and close, and when they are open, take advantage of them.

你应该卖出。

You should be selling.

即使你是赢家，也要卖出20%、30%、5%。

Even if you're winners, sell 20%, sell 30%, sell 5%.

你的职责是回报资金。

Your job is to return money.

公司是被收购的，而不是被卖出的。

Companies are bought, not sold.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得，估值只是观点而已。

Like, I guess marks are opinions.

DPI是数学计算。

DPI is math.

所以，不，不是这样的。

And so, like, no.

公司是被收购的，不是被卖出的。

Companies are bought not sold.

这不对。

That's not true.

但你不必把整个公司都卖了。

But you don't have to sell the whole company.

如果一家你投资的公司正在融资，尤其是如果你是一个小型新基金，你可以去找创始人说：‘创始人，你已经套现了一部分资金。’

If there's a round being done in a company that you're investors in, especially if you're a small new fund, you can go to the founder and be like, oh, founder, you've taken some money off the table.

如果我不能从你们的公司拿回一些流动性，五年后我就没法继续做生意了。

Like, I won't be in business in five years if I can't get some liquidity back to your companies.

顺便说一下，你可以算一算。

And by way, you can do the math.

如果你打造了下一个巨头公司，哪怕你卖掉了五亿或十亿美元的部分，谁在乎呢？

If you build the next giant company and you sell some at 500,000,000 or a billion, like who cares?

你还是拥有你整个公司的90%。

Like you still own 90% of your whole thing.

但有限合伙人想要回钱。

But like LPs want money back.

而那些能坚持十年、十五年、二十年，继续给投资者回报的人，才会继续留在这个行业里。

And the people that stay in that are going be in business ten, fifteen, twenty years from now are people that will continue to give money back to their investors.

你认为现在的有限合伙人对他们的关注点有什么变化吗？

Are you seeing LP sentiment change today around what they care about, do you think?

当然。

Absolutely.

我觉得你已经开始看到这种变化了。

I think you've started already seeing it.

我们一直很关注DPI，但我认为我们一直非常有纪律。

So we've always cared about DPI, but I think that we've we've always been really disciplined.

两到五倍，三到七年，做成了就继续前进。

Two to five x, three to seven years, like, did it, move on.

大概我们三分之一的交易都是二级市场出售。

You know, probably a third of our deals have been secondary sales.

所以有人指责我们是投机者。

So people have accused us of being traders.

这没关系。

That's fine.

但我想我确实是个投机者。

But I guess I'm a trader.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

我把钱退给了我的投资者。

I gave money back to my investors.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

投资者就是我的客户。

The investor is my client.

他们知道，我有两个客户：创业者和投资者。

Like, they know, I have two clients, entrepreneurs and investors.

没有投资者，我就没有钱。

Without investors, I don't have any money.

也就做不了生意。

Don't have a business.

所以，我认为人们需要记住，是谁在付账单。

And so, like, I think people need to remember, like, who pays the bills.

投资者现在非常、非常、非常关注DPI。

Investors are very, very, very focused on DPI now.

对于一个新兴的早期阶段小型基金来说，在前几支基金中，实际上是可以实现惊人的DPI的。

And it is possible with a small early stage fund as a new relative upcomer in the first couple of funds, you can actually generate amazing DPI's.

这是一种你可以玩的游戏。

It's a game you can play.

我不知道你有没有见过像法布里斯·格林或者来自After Labs的何塞·马林这样的投资人。

I don't know if you've ever had like Fabrice Green down here or Jose Marin from after labs.

这些人是我们长达十年、十五年的有限合伙人，也是朋友。

Those guys are like ten, fifteen year LPs of ours, friends.

这些人把这个游戏玩得非常好。

Those guys have played the game extremely well.

他们明白，并不是每家公司都能一飞冲天，而是要适时套现一部分收益，返还给投资者，然后循环往复。

They understand that not every company goes to the moon, takes some chips off the table, give it back to your investors, rinse and repeat.

我认为许多小型基金拥有一个大多数人忽视的优势：它们能够非常轻松地退出，而完全不会干扰公司的进展。

I think the advantage that a lot of these small funds have that most people don't consider is they're able to sell so much easier without really disturbing company progress at all.

如果你是Verbrief这样的投资人，尊重他的话，他可以非常轻松地退出，这根本不是什么大问题。

If you're if Verbrief's gonna risk to respect him, he can sell very easily, and it's not a big problem.

如果你是红杉资本

If you are Sequoia

没错。

Correct.

很难。

Hard.

这完全是负面信号。

It's like negative signaling, a 100%.

所以我才告诉那些年轻的基金，无论你是风投、成长型投资还是并购基金，年轻基金都可以这样对创业者说：

Versus that's why I'm telling younger funds, whether you're in venture, growth, buyouts, younger funds, it's you can be like to the entrepreneur, hey.

你在出售一些股票。

You're selling some stock.

我真的需要在这里出售一些股票。

I really need to sell some stock here.

为什么？

Why?

因为如果我不把钱返还给我的投资者，三年后我们就不会在这儿聊天了，因为我得去找新工作。

Because if I don't return money back to my investors, like, we won't be talking in three years because I'll need to

找不到第二支基金，我就得另谋职业。

find a new job because I won't have my second fund.

你担心自己像个交易员，而不是创始人眼中有吸引力的投资人吗？

Do you worry about being a trader and not being an attractive investor to founders?

不用担心。

Nope.

因为我相信，只要你帮助创始人并说到做到，现在很多投资者都做不到这一点。

Because I believe if you help founders and do what you say you're gonna do now a lot of investors don't do that either.

我觉得这个行业中大约有60%的人实际上给公司带来了负面价值。

I I there's think 60% of people in this industry that actually probably add negative value to companies.

我认为创业者，任何人都能学到的最简单的教训就是：如果你说好要做某事，就真的去做。

The simplest lesson I think entrepreneurs, anybody can learn, and I learned it early in life, is just if you say you're gonna do something, actually do it.

太多人承诺过多却交付不足，恰恰相反。

The number of people that promise, like over promise and under deliver, like be the reverse.

少承诺，多交付。

Under promise, over deliver.

所以，如果你真的帮助了创业者，帮他们招聘，帮他们开拓客户，你卖掉20%的股份，还在乎这些吗？

And so like if you've been really helpful to an entrepreneur, help them recruit, help them like with customers, You sell 20% of your old ins, like, cares?

继续帮助他们。

Keep helping them.

我们有一些公司，即使已经100%退出了，我们依然在帮他们拉客户。

We have companies we've sold 100% of that we still help drive customers to.

就像，太棒了。

Like, it's like, great.

顺便说一句，太棒了。

By the way, great.

你帮我赚了五倍的钱。

You helped me make, like, five times that money.

其他资本方都没人这么做了。

Nobody else in the capital is liquid.

我们卖掉了所有的股票。

We sold all of our stock.

请继续帮助你。

Keep helping you, please.

在创业者倾听时，你最常看到投资者以哪些方式给公司带来负面价值，他们应该警惕？

What are the most common ways you see investors provide negative value to companies for founders listening that they should watch out for?

不惜一切代价烧钱，招聘。

Burn money at all costs, recruiting.

他们实际上只是表现得好像

They actually just act like

他们知道如何经营公司。

they know how to run the business.

但我这辈子从未经营过公司。

But I never run company in my life.

不过我知道，我所接触的98%的风险投资者或私募股权投资者都是这样。

Though I know where I have, like, 98% of venture investors or private equity investors.

找一些曾经做过创业者所追求之事的人来参与讨论。

Get people around the table that have done what the entrepreneur is trying to do.

所以，如果你是一家估值两千万美元的AI公司或软件公司，就找一些曾经把企业从两千万美元做到两亿美元的创业者坐在桌旁，帮助创始人招募这些人，然后退到一边。

So if, like, you're a $20,000,000 AI company or a $20,000,000 software company, find entrepreneurs around the table, help the founder recruit people that have built businesses from 20,000,000 to 200,000,000 and get them around the table and get out of the way.

这真的是我认为最正确的建议。

It's truly the advice that I think.

我觉得现在太多自以为是的人了。

And like, I just think there's too many knuckleheads.

最糟糕的是，有些人上过斯坦福商学院，在初创公司干了十八个月，现在就摇身一变成了风险投资人，自以为无所不知。

You know, the worst is somebody, you know, who went to Stanford Business School, worked for eighteen months at a startup, and now comes in, you know, is a venture investor, now they're experts.

要保持谦逊。

Be humble.

别装作你什么都知道，因为包括我在内的大多数人，其实从未真正经营过一家公司。

Don't act like you know, because most of these, by myself included, have never actually run a bit.

我的意思是，如果你真想做风投基金或成长型股权基金，我确实做过。

Mean, look, if you want to sort of venture fund or growth equity fund, I've done that.

我可以在这方面给别人建议。

I can give people advice on that.

但如果你想知道如何组建一个出色的销售团队，就去向优秀的销售领袖请教，获取他们的建议。

But, like, if you're trying to figure out how to build out a great sales team, talk go to great sales leaders and get advice from that.

所以我真的认为，风险投资家和私募股权人士帮助创始人和创业者最好的方式，就是把他们引荐给有相关经验的人，并协助他们招聘。

So I actually think that's the best way that VCs and private equity people can help founders and entrepreneurs is connect them with people who have done it before and help them recruit.

我真心觉得这就是红杉、Benchmark 和 Index 之所以出色的原因，因为他们帮助创始人和创业者招募顶尖人才，人们也愿意加入这些基金所投资的公司。

I truly think that's why Sequoia and Benchmark are great and Index are great, because they help founders and entrepreneurs recruit amazing talent, and people want to work for those funds portfolio companies.

老兄，直接说我要转接电话。

Dude, just say I'm gonna switchboard.

我真觉得就像20世纪60年代的女性一样，整天忙着帮人接线，因为我根本不知道该怎么操作。

I honestly just feel like the women in the 1960s, you know, connecting people all day, because I'm like, no idea how to do that.

现在跟我朋友说句话。

Speak to my friend now.

就只是我的朋友。

Just my friend.

对，没错。

See see Exactly.

百分之百。

100%.

很好。

Great.

是的。

Yes.

我认为这正是最优秀的创业者真正想要的。

And I think that's what the best entrepreneurs actually want.

百分之百。

A 100%.

对。

Yeah.

根据我观察了大量公司，这是我的中立看法。

Here's my mid view from seeing a load of companies.

不，我不想要那样。

No, don't want that.

你刚才说，负值就像是，嘿。

You said that, like, oh, a negative value is, like, hey.

烧钱。

Burn money.

烧钱。

Burn money.

他们说烧钱。

They say burn money.

烧钱是因为他们需要看到增长。

Burn money because they need to see growth.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

他们现在看着市场，觉得为了拿到下一轮融资，游戏规则变了。

And they are looking at markets today going, for me to get my next round of funding, the game's changed.

不再是三三双双了。

It's no longer triple triple double double.

我现在需要你从零直接做到三十到四十，这才算有意思。

It's I need you to go from zero to honestly thirty forty for this to be interesting.

嗯，这得等等。

Well, that's about wait.

因为那是他们在交易中支付的价格。

Because that's because that's the price that they paid in the deal.

如果你在进入时支付了这些荒谬的价格，那么现在市场上真正让我感兴趣的是，那些从Anthropic或OpenAI离职、仅凭一个想法就融到20亿美元或10亿美元的人。

Like, if you if you paid these asinine prices on the way in by the way, what's what's really interesting to me in the market right now is this, like, people that spin out of, or, like, leave Anthropic or OpenAI and raise money at, like, $2,000,000,000 or a billion dollars for a freaking idea.

他们连个想法都算不上，只有一张餐巾纸。

Like, there's nothing more than an idea and a napkin.

托利斯，这简直太疯狂了。

Tollis, that seems complete lunacy.

我真正想知道的是，这些事有哪个真的成功过吗？

What I actually wanna know, have any of those ever actually worked ever?

我的意思是，有没有人一开始只是凭一个纸巾上的想法就融到了天价，比如几十亿或五亿美元，这些公司真的成功了吗？

Like, has anybody ever raised at some crazy price initially, just like an idea on a napkin, like billions of dollars or $500,000,000, and have any of those things actually ever worked?

我不知道。

I don't know.

Anthropic？

Anthropic?

他们最初融资时是多少？我不清楚他们做了什么，Dustin 投资了吗？

What was their first I don't know what the did, like, Dustin invest?

我觉得那时候金额挺小的。

I think it was pretty small.

那可是几十亿级别的。

It was like billions.

不，不，我觉得最初的种子轮投资远低于这个数。

No, no, I think the original seed deal was much lower than that.

但我觉得当 Dustin 和其他一些人参与种子轮投资时，金额要低得多，不过我不确定。

But I thought when Dustin and some of these guys invested the seed, it was much lower, but I don't know.

令人惊讶的是，Dustin 从他对 Anthropic 的投资中赚的钱，肯定会比从 Asana 赚的还多。

The astonishing is Dustin will make more money from his Anthropic investment than he will from definitely from Asana.

肯定比从 Asana 赚的多。

Definitely from Asana.

不过，我不想像 Facebook 那样。

I don't wanna be Not Facebook, though.

我不确定。

I'm not sure.

是的。

Yeah.

我不

I'm not

确定这一点。

sure about that.

我们之前谈到过烧钱的事，他们追求的是增长。

We we said about kind of burn money, and they want the growth.

这是三三二二的债务。

Is the triple, triple, double, double debt.

有太多SaaS创始人每天都联系我，他们说：十年来我一直被告诉要三三二二，然后我们就能处于一个有利的位置来筹集下一轮融资。

There's so many SaaS founders who ping me every day, and they're like, I've been told for ten years, you know, triple, triple, double, double, and then we'll be in a good place to raise our next round.

我现在正处于第三年，已经实现了翻倍，从10增长到20，但没有任何投资者愿意投资我。

I I'm in that third year where I've doubled, and I'm now gone from 10 to 20, and no investor wants me.

顺便说一句，找我们吧。

I think it's by the way, call us.

我们认为这些事情很有意思，因为我们有可能以不错的价格获得它们。

We think those things are interesting because we can get them at potentially good prices.

这才是关键所在。

That's where it matters.

你的毛美元留存率是多少？

Like, what is your gross dollar retention?

所以，听好了。

So we like, here's the deal.

这是科技公司最重要的指标，即毛美元留存率。

It's the most important number in in tech companies, gross dollar retention.

我所说的毛美元留存率，是因为大家都喜欢引用净留存率，但我要说的是毛美元。

What I mean by gross dollar retention too, because everybody wants to quote nets, is gross dollar.

你在2024年底的收入是2000万美元。

You ended 2024 with 20,000,000 revenue.

到了2025年，仅靠这些老客户，你的收入是多少？

What did you end at 2025 with just those same customers?

不考虑追加销售，只看客户流失。

No upsells, just downsells.

18%算不错了，但你真正想要的是90%左右。

18% is good, like you want like 90 percent.

低于18%的，我们根本不会碰。

Anything less than 18%, we won't touch.

19%算优秀，19.5%就堪称卓越了。

Great is 19%, incredible is 19.5%.

你追求的是90%的毛收入留存率，这已经不错了，95%很棒，98%就非常惊人了。

Like you're looking for 90% gross is good, 95% is great, 98% is amazing.

顺便说一下，为什么风险投资领域有这么多僵尸企业，就是因为有太多公司的毛收入留存率只有六七十、百分之八十。

And by way, the reason why there's so much dead wood in venture and like all these living dead, there are so many companies with like sixty, seventy, 80% gross dollar retention.

是的，祝你好运。

Yeah, good luck.

问题不在于你有1000万美元的收入，这才是问题所在。

I don't and the problem it's not your $10,000,000 revenue, that's the problem.

当你做到1.5亿美元收入时，如果毛收入留存率只有70%，你就只是在不停地流失客户。

It's when you get to like $150,000,000 of revenue, and you're like at 70% gross dollar retention, you're just like churning through.

所以，那些拥有95%毛收入留存率的公司可以快速增长，而且几乎不烧钱，因为它们不需要花大钱在销售和营销上填补客户流失的空缺。

And so that's why the company that's got 95 gross dollar retention can grow really fast and not burn much money, because they're not spending money on sales and marketing to fill up the bucket.

如果你是TOMA Bravo

If you're a TOMA Bravo

嗯。

Mhmm.

你有像Coopers和Anaplan这样的公司，它们的增长率最高也就个位数出头，那这一代科技领域的成长型股权和私募股权投资者会怎样呢？

And you've got your Coopers and your Anaplans, where the companies are kind of growing at best mid teens, what happens to this generation of growth equity, PE investors in tech?

我认为成长型股权和收购业务是非常不同的。

So I think growth equity and like buyouts are very different.

我认为就连收购业务也很不一样，比如像Hellman和Fried这样的公司，如果你想投大型企业，像Hellman和Fried以及Primera这样的机构相对更偏向成长型投资。

I think even buyouts are very like, I think like people like Hellman and Fried like, if you want to go with the large cap, people like Hellman and Friedman and people like Primera are slightly more growth oriented.

还有一些公司可能更注重利润率。

And there are other firms that are probably more like margin focused.

我认为这很可能取决于它们公司所承担的债务规模。

I think it's probably a function of how much debt they have on their companies.

说实话，我并没有花大量时间去研究Coupa Software或Anaplan这类公司的财务数据。

To be honest, I have not looked and spent tons of time like studying the the financials of Coupa Software or Anaplan and things like that.

如果我是他们，我知道这些公司都能把EBITDA利润率从5%提升到40%。

If I was them, it's like, I know that all these companies, they drive EBITDA margins from 5% to 40%.

问题是，它们是怎么做到的？

The question is, how are they doing it?

我希望他们是主要通过削减非常低效的市场推广、销售营销和管理费用来实现的。

I would hope that they've done it mainly through, like, cutting really inefficient go to market and sales marketing and G and A.

我希望他们没有把工程和销售团队从200人削减到20人。

I would hope they haven't taken the engineering sales headcount from 200 to 20.

我怀疑他们并没有这么做，但如果真是这样，我会很担心。

I suspect they have not, but, like, that would worry me if they had done that.

但我怀疑他们并没有这么做。

But I suspect they have not.

顺便说一句，这些人都是非常聪明的。

Like, by the way, these people are really smart people.

而且问题是，如果这些公司是在没有债务的情况下被收购的，那他们肯定正在大力投资人工智能之类的技术。

Like and the the question is if those companies have been bought with no debt, then they would be investing hugely, I'm sure, in AI, something like that.

他们可能已经这么做了。

They probably already are.

但对我而言，这正是我开头所说的：我们担心任何背负大量债务的公司，以及任何重大的技术变革。

But for me, that's why what I said at the beginning, we worry about any company and any big technological disruption that is levered with a lot of debt on it.

无论是一家软件公司、制造公司、会计服务公司还是工业服务公司，只要有债务，你就被束缚住了，因为你要支付巨额利息。

Regardless if it's a software company or a manufacturing company or an accounting services firm or an industrial services firm, whatever, with debt, you're just like hamstrung with how much you can do because you have massive interest payments to buy.

你难道不担心吗？考虑到公开市场的赌场特性，以及像Figma这样股价从高点暴跌，而Atlassian虽然业绩加速增长却下跌了76%的波动性？

Do you not worry that given the casino of public markets and the volatility that ensues from a Figma where it rides up to where it is to them being in in the gutter and Atlassian, which is posting accelerating numbers and it's down 76%?

你会买入像Atlassian这样的公司。

You buy you buy a company like Atlassian.

这正是我的观点。

That would be my argument.

明白了。

Okay.

太好了。

Fantastic.

我同意。

I agree.

我觉得迈克也找到了一家很棒的公司，没错。

I think Mike's amazing also found a like company Correct.

百分之百。

A 100%.

如果我是Canva，我会想：我绝对不可能上市。

If I'm Canva, I'm looking at this going, there's no fucking way I'm going out.

如果我是Stripe，我会说：谢谢。

If I'm Stripe, I'm going, thank you.

我对自己选择保持私有化的决定感到非常 vindicated。

I feel very vindicated in my decision to stay private.

这个被 meme 化的股市难道不只是

Does this meme ified stock market not just

让情况变得更糟，对有限合伙人来说并不好，

make It's not good for LPs, put it

这么说吧。

that way.

流动性问题更严重了。

Liquidity problem worse.

对。

Correct.

那么，是什么会改变这种情况呢？当有限合伙人去向全球最大的风险投资基金和私募股权基金说：除非你们能让这些公司的股票实现流动性，否则我们不会投资你们的下一期基金。

So what will change it When LPs go to the biggest venture funds in the world and private equity funds and say, we're not investing in your next fund until you get liquidity in these names.

我的意思是，这其实就是现实。

I mean, that's the reality of it.

但顺便说一句，我也不同意创始人们的观点。

But I I don't I agree with founders, by the way, too.

我认为，确实有一些情况值得考虑。

I do think there are look.

确实有一些公司，上市是有其道理的。

There are companies that there is something to be said for a company going public.

我有一些朋友，他们管理着一些大型上市公司。

I have friends with a bunch of guys that run big public spec

你刚检查过设备。

You just had equipment checked.

是的

Yeah.

他们上市了。

They went public.

实际上，股价表现相当不错。

Well, the stock's actually done quite well.

而且，这实际上像是一种衍生投资。

And, actually, it's like a derivative play.

所以，这是我们对AI和数据中心建设的衍生投资，对吧？

So it was our derivative play on AI build data centers, right?

你得先搞到铲子，还得弄辆翻斗车。

You got to like get a shovel and you got to get like a dump truck.

但再次强调，这是一家在2020年和2021年时人人都以为是科技公司的企业。

But again, that was a company in 2020 and 2021 that everybody thought was like a tech company.

它根本不是一家科技公司。

It's not a tech company.

这就像一家由几位杰出创始人运营的设备租赁公司，他们真是厉害角色。

It's like an equipment rentals business run by a couple of awesome founders are studs and killers.

我们得以与他们合作，从一些急于套现的人手中收购了大量二手股份，这真是绝佳的投资。

We were able to partner with them to buy a bunch of secondary from people that were desperate to sell, and it's been an awesome Is

你是怎么进入这个行业的？

that how you got into that business?

是的，我们买了很多二手股份。

Yes, bought a ton of secondary.

你从那些想卖出的人手里买了很多二手股份。

You bought a ton of secondary from people who wanted to sell.

是的，他们以为这是一家科技公司。

Yeah, they were like, oh, this is a tech company.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.