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今天的节目由专为现代团队打造的AI客户关系管理系统提供支持。
Support for today's show comes from the AI CRM for modern teams.
有些公司选客户关系管理系统，是因为不得不选。
Some companies pick a CRM because they have to.
另一些公司选它，是因为它能帮他们赢得业务。
Others pick one because it helps them win.
这就是Atiyo。
That's Atiyo.
从邮件、会议到产品使用数据，所有信息从第一天起就自动整合成每个客户的实时全景图。
Every signal from emails and meetings to product usage syncs into a live picture of every account from day one.
Atiyo的销售助手能立刻发现潜在客户、分配线索，并用你的语气撰写跟进信息。
Atiyo's revenue agents instantly prospect and route leads and draft outreach and follow ups in your voice.
别人管这叫不公平的优势。
Others call it an unfair advantage.
你只管把它当作下一步行动。
You just call it your next move.
你可以访问 attio.com/vergecast，首年享受八五折优惠。
You can go to attio.com/vergecast and you'll get 15% off your first year.
就是 attio.com/vergecast。
That's attio.com/vergecast.
本节目由普华永道支持。
Support for the show comes from KPMG.
在任何组织中，变革都不可避免，但不必为此苦苦挣扎。
In any organization, disruption is inevitable, but struggling through it doesn't have to be.
普华永道适应力指数为你提供了一份蓝图，帮助你打造应对未来挑战的能力。
The KPMG Adaptability Index is your blueprint for building capabilities to handle what comes next.
它基于真实数据，分析你的文化、战略和合作关系如何协同作用，推动业务成长。
It uses real data to look at how your culture, strategy, and partnerships all work together to help your business thrive.
别再被动应对，主动适应吧。
Stop reacting and start adapting.
立即访问 kpmg.com/us/adaptability，了解适应力指数和脉搏调查。
Visit kpmg.com/us/adaptability to explore the Adaptability Index and Pulse surveys today.
你们公司用多少家第三方供应商？
How many third party vendors does your company use?
二十家？
20?
两百家？
200?
多亏了人工智能，你们团队里可能有人这周又加了三家新供应商。
Thanks to AI, someone on your team probably added three more this week.
但你们的安全负责人根本不知道。
And your security lead has no idea.
传统的第三方风险管理已经跟不上节奏了。
Traditional third party risk management can't keep up.
Vanta 能自动对所有供应商进行持续监控，让你清清楚楚知道现在有哪些供应商，以及该怎么处理。
Vanta gives you continuous coverage across every vendor automatically so you actually know what's in your stack and what to do about it.
开启AI，关闭风险。
AI on, risk off.
Vanta.com/tprm
Vanta.com/tprm.
大家好，欢迎收听《The Vergecast》，这是Vox Media播客网络的主打节目。
Hello, and welcome to The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
如果你忽略掉所有那些公司里的乱七八糟的事，这句话依然成立。
If you just ignore all the other corporate shenanigans, that remains true.
是的。
Yep.
而且
And
我们这就开始了。
here here we are.
我是你们的朋友大卫·皮尔斯。
I'm your friend David Pierce.
尼尔·埃普斯坦也在。
Neil Epzel is here.
嘿，老兄。
Hey, buddy.
最近怎么样？
What's up?
你这次居然在家。
You're home for once.
一个月住遍了豪华酒店，现在总算回到你那间普通的老房子了。
After a month of extremely fancy hotel rooms, you're back in, you know, your lowly old house.
是的。
Yeah.
我回到阁楼了，就在女儿房间旁边。
I'm back in my attic next to my daughter's room.
随时都能听见她在唱泰勒·斯威夫特的歌。
At any moment, you can hear her singing Taylor Swift.
这就是我们整个夏天的真实写照。
It's gonna that that's what our summer has been.
她对MSG的婚礼怎么看？
What does she think about the MSG wedding?
她更关心她的iPod。
She she's more excited about her iPod.
我给她看了婚礼的照片，她就说：挺好。
So I showed her pictures of the wedding, she's like, great.
挺好的，为泰勒高兴。
Good for Taylor.
好吧。
Okay.
不过呢，她夏天像其他八岁孩子一样去露营，一路上想在公交车上听音乐。
But she, you know, she's going to camp like eight year olds do in the summer, she wanted to listen to music on the bus on the way to camp.
车上有些孩子用的是那种小安卓音乐播放器。
And some of her friends on the bus have, like, little Android music players.
就是那种小孩用的音乐播放器。
There's, like, kid music players.
有些人用的手机根本没有SIM卡。
Some people have phones without SIM cards in them.
我现在也到了为人父母的这个阶段。
It's that time in the parenting journey for me.
大卫，你迟早也会经历的。
It will come for you, David.
是的。
Yeah.
我当时就想，这些我一样都不想搞。
And I was like, I'm not doing any of this.
我们尽量推迟给孩子买手机和类似的东西。
We are we are delaying phone and phone like objects as long as we can.
于是我翻出了一台以前的老iPod，很久以前我们还给它改装过，装了SSD和新电池，拍过一个YouTube视频。
And so I dug out one of my old iPods that we actually retrofitted for a YouTube video ages ago with an SSD and a new battery.
哎呀。
Ugh.
我最近一直在考虑要不要给自己也搞一个。
I've been debating doing this for my own purposes.
是的。
Yeah.
我们当时只是因为之前拍视频才弄了一个。
So, I mean, we had it because we just, like, did this for a video ages ago.
我还得重新回想怎么下载MP3文件。
And I had to remember how to download m p threes.
我不打算说具体怎么弄的，为什么这么干。
I'm not gonna say how or why.
我确实这么做了。
I did that.
完全合法。
Completely legal.
你只需要知道这一点就够了。
That's all you need to know.
我可是把所有流媒体平台都订了。
I was like, I pay for every streaming service.
你懂的吧？
I you know?
是的。
Yeah.
我确实每家流媒体平台都付费了。
I pay for every streaming sir.
我要正式声明一下，法官大人。
I would like I would like it on the record, your honor.
我确实每家流媒体平台都付费了。
I pay for every streaming service.
对。
Uh-huh.
我每个月都按时付费，给美国的艺术家们支持，而且费用还在不断上涨。
I have done my economic duty to the artists of America, and I do it every month at high rates, ever increasing rates.
总之，我们给了她一个iPod，还装了一堆音乐进去。
Anyhow, so we we gave her an iPod, and we put a bunch of music on it.
歌单选得真差，除了泰勒·斯威夫特——我承认她是美国当代最出色的词曲作者。
It is the worst selection outside of Taylor Swift, who I will concede as America's finest living songwriter.
对。
Mhmm.
给沃尔特·莫斯伯格点个赞，他打心底里就这么认为。
Shout out Walt Walt Mossberg who believes this in his in with every fiber of his being.
这算是沃尔特比较靠谱的一个观点了。
One of Walt's better takes.
会。
Would
确实是。
It is.
我同意。
I I I agree.
我觉得她绝对够格。
I I I think she's she's right up there.
全是迪士尼直接上线流媒体的音乐原声带。
It's a bunch of Disney's direct to streaming musical soundtracks.
还不错。
Cool.
对此我真是再郁闷不过了。
And I could not be unhappier about this.
于是我们插上耳机，现在它就在那儿放着。
And so we plugged in the headphones, and now it's over there.
随时可能听见它从墙那边传过来。
But you might hear it coming through the wall at any moment.
这跟在法国南部可完全不一样。
This is very different from being in the South Of France.
她够大了吧？能跟我聊聊哪部《歌舞青春》才是最好的？
Is she old enough to have a conversation with me about which of the high school musicals is the best high school musical?
还没到呢。
There yet.
我们现在正听着《僵尸与后裔》，天啊，这简直是一场命运多舛的跨界音乐剧体验。
We are at zombies and descendants and go, my friend, the ill fated crossover musical experience.
明白了。
Okay.
这规模也太大了，吓人。
This this is this is big yikes.
我们现在卡在《蜘蛛侠和他的神奇朋友们》这儿了，而且看样子还得在这儿待挺久。
This is I'm in the sweet spot of we are at Spidey and his amazing friends, and we are we are appearing to be stuck there for some time.
这消息在我家可是天大的好事。
And this is terrific news in my household.
我们不会往前赶，除非真准备好看《驱魔人》那种级别的了。
I have no we are not pushing past this until until we're ready for, like, you know, The Exorcist.
在那之前，我们就一直看《蜘蛛侠》了。
We're just gonna stick with Spidey until then.
这肯定会特别棒。
It's gonna be amazing.
祝你好运。
Good luck.
因为一旦它找上门，那就彻底没救了。
Because once once it comes for you, it's it's all over.
然后你就想，咱们能不能再听一遍泰勒·斯威夫特？
And you're like, can we just listen to Taylor Swift again?
这其实是我经常说的话。
That's that's actually a thing I say all the time.
说到底，你和别人都是一样的。
It's I mean, you and you and everybody else, it turns out.
对了，如果你有考虑过婚礼的事，我可想知道细节。
If you've thought about the wedding, by the way, I wanna hear them.
我对这事真是挺纠结的。
I'm very conflicted about it.
我得听听大家的想法。
I need to hear everybody's thoughts.
发邮件到 Vergecast@theverge.com。
Vergecast@theverge.com.
跟我们说说你的感受。
Tell us how you feel.
我是认真的。
I'm I'm dead serious about that.
今天我们得聊不少事。
We have a bunch of stuff we should talk about today.
事情挺多的。
There's a lot
了
of
Netflix 上最近有不少动态。
Netflix stuff going on.
Meta的智能眼镜最近也闹得挺热闹的。
There's a lot of Meta smart glasses stuff going on.
布兰登还在继续。
Brendan remains.
没错，确实如此。
Yeah, man.
布兰登一刻都没停过。
Brendan is going on at all times.
还有一些特别荒唐的InstagramAI操作，咱们得好好聊聊。
Some deeply silly Instagram AI shenanigans that we should get into.
不过咱们先从Netflix说起吧。
But let's start with Netflix.
我觉得咱们这档节目已经聊过太多流媒体平台了，我们还搞了个叫‘Go90评分’的流媒体评测体系。
I think we've spent a lot of time talking about streaming services on this show, and we we have this thing called the go 90 scale of streaming services.
对吧？
Right?
这本质上就是末日
And it is essentially Doom
流媒体服务。
streaming services.
没错。
Right.
不好意思。
Sorry.
末日流媒体服务的90分制。
The go 90 scale of doom streaming services.
意思是，如果你是90分，就像Verizon那个Go 90服务，那就完蛋了。
And the idea is if you are a 90, like the Verizon streaming service go 90, you are dead.
如果你是零分，那就是最棒、最活跃、最有生命力的状态。
If you are a zero, that's the that's the best, most vibrant, most alive you can possibly be.
Netflix很长一段时间都是零分。
And we've had Netflix at a zero for a very long time.
是的
Yeah.
我
I
我觉得眼下这个时刻，我们确实该把评分稍微调高一点
I think there is an argument to be made at this particular moment in time that we need to tick it up on the scale a little
天哪
Oh my.
部分原因是这周冒出不少消息，显示奈飞正慢慢失去方向，开始在多个领域胡乱折腾
In part because there's just been a bunch of news this week that suggests that Netflix is slowly losing its mind and starting to flail uncontrollably in a lot of directions.
而这种情况往往预示着事情即将变得更糟
And that is what happens right before things start to get really ugly.
我举几个例子吧。这周媒体科技圈最大的新闻，是彭博社报道奈飞有个严重问题：一部剧第一季大热，到了第二季却流失了绝大多数观众
Let me just throw a couple at So the biggest story of the week in in sort of media tech circles was this Bloomberg report about how Netflix has this huge problem where it will have a hit first season of a show and then lose a vast quantity of the audience on the second season.
类似的情况还有很多
And there are a bunch of examples of this.
我觉得《 Beef》的观众流失最严重。
I think BEEF was the one with the strongest drop off.
第一季特别成功。
Hugely successful first season.
是那种引爆全网的现象级剧集。
Big, zeitgeisty show.
拿了不少奖。
Won a lot of awards.
第二季口碑其实很不错。
The second season, by all accounts, very good.
我没看，别人也没看。
I didn't watch it, and neither did anybody else.
但这显然是Netflix一贯的问题，他们到现在还没找到解决办法。
And but this is this is a recurring theme at Netflix apparently, and and they're struggling to figure out what to do about it and how to solve this problem.
大家都对这事儿有各种猜测。
Everybody has theories about this.
这周大家都在热议这件事。
People are talking about this all week.
与此同时，有消息说Netflix正在扩大其播客业务，包括与Vox Media播客网络的一些人达成合作。
Then next to that, there's news that Netflix is a, expanding its podcast operations, including deals with folks at the Vox Media Podcast Network.
特别提一下查理·哈丁，他是《The Vergecast》的朋友，他的节目《Switched On Pop》即将登陆Netflix，表现会非常出色。
Shout out to Charlie Harding, friend of the Vergecast, who's Switched On Pop is gonna be on Netflix going Amazing.
很快就会上线。
Sometime soon.
是的。
Yeah.
这对查理来说真是大好消息。
Big win for Charlie.
我们都很喜欢查理。
We love Charlie.
赶紧去听一听、看一看《Switched On Pop》吧。
Go go listen to and watch Switched On Pop.
但他们还在做那种我直接称之为YouTube视频的内容。
But they're also doing just straight up what I would call YouTube videos.
他们和一堆出版商达成了协议，包括我们可能很快就要成为母公司的那家。
They made a deal with a bunch of publishers, including our potential soon to be parent company.
这一切都太混乱了。
It's all very confusing.
我完全搞不懂。
I don't understand any of it.
如果你愿意的话，可以做个声明。
You can do the disclosure if you'd like to.
我试试看。
I'm gonna try.
说吧。
Go
继续。
ahead.
本质上，他们把原本为其他社交平台制作的视频，直接搬到了Netflix上。
To basically take ex in in many cases, videos that were made for other social platforms and just put them on Netflix.
这周刚公布了艾美奖提名名单。
And there there the Emmy nominations were this week.
最近财报和一些新信息显示，尽管Netflix还在增长，但用户在上面花的时间却在减少。
There there's been a bunch of new information coming in earnings and such that suggest that even as Netflix continues to grow, people are spending less time on Netflix.
我在这份Google文档开头写的问题是：Netflix到底还是什么？
There's just the the thing I wrote at the top of this Google doc is what is Netflix anymore?
我觉得，如果连我都在问这个问题，那我们可能已经不在流媒体服务的‘零分死亡线’上了。
And I feel like if I am asking this question, maybe we're not at a zero on the go 90 scale of doom streaming services anymore.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得你说得对。
I think that's right.
以前人人都会订的Netflix，现在不再是个理所当然的选择了。
Netflix is the subscription that you definitely had is no longer a given.
我觉得没错。
I think that's right.
对吧？
Right?
以前如果你只能选一个订阅，几乎肯定会选Netflix，这正是它一直没滑向灾难的原因。
That's what kept it at zero on the doom scale for so long was if you were gonna have one subscription, it was almost certainly Netflix.
我觉得你描述的，已经不是Netflix现在的样子了。
I think what you are describing is not what is Netflix anymore.
天啊，Netflix到底会多快变成YouTube？
It's, boy, how fast is Netflix gonna turn into YouTube?
没错。
Right.
这会不会就是他们的目标？
And is that is that maybe the goal?
看起来这根本不是偶然发生的事，而可能是他们有意为之的计划。
Like, it it it sure looks like that is not just a thing that's accidentally happening, but that might be affirmatively the plan.
而且要做到这一点真的很难，原因有很多。
And and there are a lot of reasons that's really hard to do.
实际上，从来没人成功过。
It's really no one has succeeded in doing that.
对。
Yeah.
说清楚一点，从来没有人成功做到过。
To be clear, no one has ever succeeded in doing that.
我刚从戛纳回来。
You know, I I did just come back from Cannes.
在那个活动上，我听了好多创作者谈论广告和如何触达观众。
I listened to so many creators at that event talk about advertising and talk about reaching audiences.
他们都做很长的YouTube视频，而且把广告很自然地融入了内容里。
They all make long YouTube videos, and they've integrated the advertising into the videos very directly.
他们直接推广产品。
They market products.
这就是关键所在。
This is this is the thing.
创作者经济中增长最快的两个领域是Instagram和YouTube。
And the two pieces of the creator economy that are booming are Instagram and YouTube.
说白了，就是这两个平台。
Like, those are the things.
人们现在主要就是在这些平台上活动。
Those are the formats that people operate in.
TikTok其实相对没那么重要，而且有意思的是，它的重要性远不如表面看起来那么大。
And TikTok is actually pretty secondary, like, in in really interesting ways.
是因为在TikTok上赚不到钱吗？
Is that just because there's no money in it?
直到现在，还没人真正搞清楚怎么在TikTok上赚钱。
Like, still to this day, no one has figured out how make any money on TikTok.
它更多是个用来引流到其他平台的发现工具。
It's a discovery mechanism for other platforms.
我的意思是，这确实是一个说法。
I mean, that that's one argument.
我觉得，确实有些TikTok创作者赚了很多钱。
I think, I mean, there are TikTokers who make a lot of money.
但查理·达梅利奥就是个例子。
But Charlie D'Amelio exists.
对吧？
Right?
确实有不少TikTok创作者在平台上做大规模的品牌合作。
Like, there are there are TikTokers who do brand deals on that platform in big ways.
但说观众在增长，或者说你能触达新受众、尝试新形式、开辟新频道，这些都不太成立。
But the idea that the audiences are growing or that you can reach new audiences or you can experiment in new formats or you can, like, light a new channel.
TikTok完全靠兴趣推荐，根本没有关注关系链，所以创作者最终还是会回到YouTube。
Like, TikTok is so interest graph driven, and it really does not have any follow graph that the creators sort of flock back to YouTube in real ways.
正因如此，像《Backrooms》这样的现象才会在YouTube上爆发。
And that means things like Backrooms happen as YouTube phenomenons.
对。
Mhmm.
然后奈飞等到后期再参与进来，但成本高多了。
And then Netflix gets to participate in that later at more expensive economics.
而YouTube却能培养这些人才，让他们最终成为好莱坞的明星。
Whereas YouTube gets to grow the talent that then becomes the Hollywood talent.
我觉得，如果你是奈飞，你肯定会这么想。
And I think if you're Netflix, you're kinda looking at this.
好吧。
You know, like, okay.
这个行业的未来，是一群掌控了当下所有注意力和文化资本的创作者。
The future of this industry is a bunch of creators who control all of the attention and all the cultural capital today.
他们根本不在我们的平台上，我们只能等他们有了名气、影响力和资金，能拍大制作的时候，才有机会接触他们，那时候还得花高价才能请到他们。
They're nowhere near our platform, and the only time we will get ahold of them is later when they have the cache and the influence and the money to make bigger budget things, and then we have to pay really high rates to get those bigger budget things.
没错。
Right.
然后我们还要向用户收费。
And then we're gonna charge people for that.
但我们已经晚了，因为这些创作者的内容在Instagram、YouTube和TikTok上都是免费的。
And we'll just be late because those creators are also available for free on Instagram and YouTube and TikTok.
我们最好早点介入，分一杯羹。
And we had better go get a piece of that early.
我觉得所有这些慌乱的举动，都是对这种情况的反应。
And I think all of this flailing is a response to that.
Netflix根本没有什么能称得上创作者战略的东西。
Netflix does not have anything close to what you would call a creator strategy.
没错。
No.
对吧？
Right?
这本来就不是他们做的事。
That's just not the thing that they do.
如果你觉得这才是真正的机会所在，觉得创作者才是文化行业未来的方向，那你最好赶紧行动，不妨多试几招，比如花钱买YouTube上的视频内容。
And if you think that's where the action is, if you think creators are where the future of the cultural industries are, you had better do something, and you might as well just fire a bunch of stuff at the wall, including paying for YouTube videos.
为什么不呢？
Why not?
问题是，相比完全免费的YouTube，Netflix不断上涨的订阅费，真的值这个价吗？
The question is whether that's worth the ever increasing amount of money that Netflix charges customers to be on its platform at all compared to YouTube, which somewhat famously is free.
确实如此。
Yeah.
尽管YouTube Premium一路涨价，涨得离谱，但它依然是流媒体领域最划算的选择，而且远超其他平台。
Although YouTube premium, I would say, even as it goes through its own unbelievably large series of price increases, remains the best deal in streaming, and it's not particularly close.
没错。
Oh, yeah.
它现在才是真正意义上的零成本选择。
It's the only that's the true zero now.
没错。
Yeah.
我觉得确实没错。
I think I honestly think that's right.
所以问题就在这儿。
And and so this is this is the thing.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得，你只要把各种线索串起来，就能明白Netflix是怎么走到今天的。
I think, you know, you you you can put a lot of pieces together and figure out how Netflix got here.
对吧？
Right?
你可以回溯到很久以前，那时候Netflix的主要对手其实是睡觉。
Like, you go way back to the idea that Netflix's main competitor was sleep.
这家公司长期以来一直非常关注用户在平台上的停留时间。
This company has been obsessed with time spent in the service for a really long time.
某种程度上，我能理解这种思路。
And to some extent, I get that.
而且他们还做了不少其他举动，明显是在朝着这个目标推进。
And then they've also made a bunch of other moves that suggest that that is the thing that they're after.
他们说不碰体育内容，结果后来还是进了体育领域。
They they said they weren't into sports, and then they got into sports.
他们说不做游戏，结果后来也入局了，而且现在越来越重视游戏。
They said they they they weren't doing gaming, and then they got into gaming, and they're increasingly into gaming.
这个平台本质上就是个娱乐场所，这本身没什么问题。
And this service is is just a place to go to do entertainment, which is fine and good.
但就像你所说，这样一来，他们就进入了完全不同的竞争领域，面对的是那些资源雄厚、根基稳固的巨型平台，根本没法抗衡。
But like you said, that that puts them in a very different competitive space with a bunch of gigantic platforms with impossible resources that are well established in this space that you just can't compete with.
这么多年，多少亿美金砸进去想撼动YouTube，哪怕一点点，全都打了水漂。
Like, the the billions of dollars that have been spent over the years trying to take down YouTube even in some small way have all been wasted.
根本没成功。
It just hasn't worked.
所以Netflix说，我们要做那个闪亮的娱乐平台，我觉得这逻辑上说得通。
And so for Netflix to say, we wanna be the shiny entertainment thing made sense to me.
对吧？
Right?
当时的竞争其实是，我们怎么赶在HBO变成Netflix之前，先变成HBO？
That it was like the the race was how do we become HBO before HBO comes becomes Netflix?
以前确实觉得，能成为HBO就是最高目标。
And it actually made sense a while back that the thing to aspire to was to be HBO.
只要你能成为HBO，打造出一流剧集，其他问题自然就迎刃而解了。
And that if you could be HBO and become the factory of great shows, all the rest of your problems solve themselves.
所以对我来说，现在的情况是，如果你是Netflix，你该意识到，光靠制作最棒的剧集，已经赢不了这场游戏了——这一点，其实现在看得很清楚。
So to me, it's like, look at this and either if you're Netflix, you don't think you can win that game anymore by making the most best shows, which I think in a lot of ways is demonstrably true at this point.
最顶尖的剧集，现在都不在Netflix上。
The best shows are not on Netflix.
没错。
Yep.
再换个角度想想，好吧。
And also look at it and say, okay.
我们得继续做全球最大的平台，才能撑得起我们在各方面投入的巨额资金。
We need to continue to be the biggest thing in the world to support our unbelievable investment in everything.
我们只能拼命抢占人们每天的每一分钟，不管用什么方式。
We just have to go eat up minutes in people's day, whatever that looks like.
这直接让我们跟YouTube和TikTok撞上了。
And that just runs you directly into YouTube and TikTok.
我觉得，这对Netflix来说，是一场输得特别惨的仗。
And I'd I'd I think that is a losing game for Netflix in a big, big way.
是的。
Yeah.
说到底，所有媒体公司都面临同一个问题，不只是新闻网站那种。
I mean, again, the problem for every media business of every kind, not not news websites or whatever.
只要是做内容的，本质上都是这一行的生意。
Like, every literal media business, the the thing that makes content, that's your business.
而你面对的，是一群愿意免费干活的青少年。
You're up against an army of teenagers who will work for free.
对。
Mhmm.
这就是问题所在。
This it is the problem.
你得好好想想，大多数人手机主屏幕上装的都是Instagram和YouTube。
You just have to stare at it and say most people on their phones, on their home screens, have Instagram and YouTube.
Instagram和YouTube的商业模式，就是一群愿意免费干活的青少年。
And the economics of Instagram and YouTube are an army of teenagers who will work for free.
对。
Mhmm.
他们能源源不断地产出内容。
And they're they make infinity content.
没错。
Okay.
那你打算怎么应对？
Like, what are you gonna do about that?
总得做点什么才行。
Something it it has to be something.
没错。
Right.
Netflix一直说自己有两个特点，你刚才都提到了：一是我们唯一的竞争对手是睡觉，二是我们必须在HBO之前成为HBO。这两个说法根本就是互相矛盾的。
The two things Netflix has always said about itself that you've described, one, our only competition is sleep, and we have to become HBO before HBO comes up, have always been in absolute opposition to each other.
有意思。
Interesting.
‘我们唯一的竞争对手是睡觉’，意思就是他们得不停地出内容。
Our only competition is sleep means they have to just have stuff.
对。
Right.
得有一大堆内容，牢牢抓住你的注意力，让你没心思打游戏，也没心思打开TikTok。
A huge array of stuff that commands your attention and keeps you from playing video games and keeps you from opening TikTok.
这样一来，迟早他们就得自己做游戏——而他们确实这么做了。
And that means eventually, they're gonna make video games, which they did.
最后，他们还会做YouTube视频和播客，这事儿他们已经做了。
And eventually, they're gonna have YouTube videos and podcasts, which they do.
他们选了这一条。
And they've picked that one.
他们没选‘我们要做质量最高的内容’这条。
They did not pick we will have the best quality content.
他们真的没选。
They just didn't.
Netflix现在对这事特别数据化了。
And Netflix has gotten really numeric about it.
《纽约时报》做过一篇关于现任工作室负责人丹·林的专访。
The New York Times did a profile of Dan Lin who runs the studio now.
这是原文。
Here's the quote.
林先生代表了回归常态。
Mister Lin is a reversion to the norm.
他很清楚什么内容在平台上受欢迎，每部电影该花多少钱，不管明星多大牌，他都不太会让步。
He knows what works on the service and how much each movie should cost, and there's little he's willing to budge on no matter how big a star is.
真的吗。
Wow.
整个专访都在说，他就一句话：不行。
I mean, the whole profile is like, he's like, I say no.
我就说不行，你能拿到的预算就这么多，必须严格遵守。
Like, I say no, and I'm like, this is how much you can get, and you're gonna hold to this budget.
他还重新调整了工作室的运作方式，完全是靠数据说话。
And, like, he reorganized how how their studio works, and it is it's like quant stuff.
你懂我的意思吧。
You know what I mean?
说白了，就是用金融工程的手法来制作内容。
Like, it is financial engineering to make the content.
人们愿意跟他合作，因为他坦诚，这在好莱坞可不多见。
And people like working with him because he's honest, which is a rarity in Hollywood.
当然。
Sure.
这是整个简介里唯一的一部分。
It's the only part of the profile.
我们会把链接发给你。
We we'll link it.
你可以去看看。
You can read it.
写得真的很好。
It's really good.
但我认为这跟收你一大笔钱只为给你看最精彩的内容，完全是两回事。
But I think that's very different than we charge you a lot of money to show you the best stuff.
对。
Right.
而且这在创作理念上也根本不一样。
And it's a it's a fundamentally different creative proposition too.
对吧？
Right?
这其实是对一连串数据的冷酷执行，而不是真正的创意发挥。
It is it is, like, ruthless execution on a a series of numbers as opposed to actual creative execution.
我的意思是，我们在Garbage Day的朋友瑞安·布罗德里克写过一篇很好的文章，说Netflix正是因为这种你描述的方式，变成了潮流的滞后指标，而不是引领潮流。
I mean, Ryan Broderick, our friend over at garbage day, wrote a wrote a good thing about this that is, like, Netflix, because of that exact approach that you're describing, has become sort of a trailing indicator of what's cool and interesting and not leading any of it.
对吧？
Right?
你随便看一部Netflix上的作品，都能发现它拍的时候，十八个月前的流行趋势早就过去了。
Like, you you can look at something on Netflix and see what was trending eighteen months ago when they started production on it.
是的。
Yeah.
所有东西都像是对Netflix上曾经成功过的内容的反复模仿。
And that everything is sort of a copy of a copy of a copy of something that worked on Netflix.
坦白说，Netflix的电影早就一直是这样了。
And Netflix's movies, frankly, have been like that for some time.
所以像道恩·强森这样的演员，就在Netflix上一遍又一遍地拍同样的电影。
It's why, like, Dwayne The Rock Johnson just does that movie over and over and over again on Netflix.
但他们的剧集，至少在很长一段时间里，并不像是这样。
But its shows, at least for a long time, didn't feel like that.
也不是所有剧集都这样。
And they're not all like that.
Netflix上还是有一些不错的内容的。
There's still some good stuff on Netflix.
但如果你真按这种方式做生意，那你做的就是一种非常特定类型的企业，跟Netflix长期以来想做的那种大胆创新的创作模式完全不一样。
But it it does like, if you are going to run your business that way, you are going to run a very particular kind of business that is not the, like, big swing creative thing that Netflix seemed to want to be for a really long time.
有一点是，Netflix剧集第一季和第二季之间往往有明显的质量下滑，尤其是当它们只是从擅长制作的电视台买来内容的时候。
There's just some part of this where the you know, there's a big drop off between season one and season two of the Netflix show that runs right into Netflix's best when it it's buying the content from networks that are good at this.
对。
Yes.
现在并没有一大群好莱坞人才全都困在高薪职位上走不开。
It's not like there's a bunch of Hollywood talent that's all locked up at great jobs right now.
这完全违背了制作更多电视剧集的想法。
And is totally against the idea of making more episodes of television.
对。
Yeah.
说白了，你完全可以这样想：
Like, it it feels like you could be like, alright.
咱们建个制片厂，像九十年代的NBC那样运作，成本还能更低一点。
We're gonna set up a studio to do it like NBC did in the nineties, maybe at lower rates.
对吧？
Right?
我们没必要给《老友记》的每个主演每集付一百万美元。
We're not gonna pay every single cast member of Friends a million dollars per episode.
我们就拍那种二十分钟的 sitcom，一季拍六十集，明年接着再来。
Like, we're gonna make twenty two minute long sitcoms and make 60 episodes of that in a season and do it again the next year.
对。
Yeah.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
然后大肆宣传，让人非看Netflix不可。
And just market that thing so that you have to watch Netflix.
但看起来他们觉得这种模式在经济上行不通，而买YouTube视频的模式反而更划算。
But it seems like they have decided the economics of that don't work, and the economics of buying YouTube videos do.
不知为什么，我觉得这有点本末倒置。
And that seems upside down to me for some reason.
在这种情况下，Netflix的支持者会说，它的分发能力实在太强了。
Well, the argument for Netflix in this case would be that it is such a good distributor.
对吧？
Right?
我这些年做了很多关于推荐算法的调查，其中一点很明显：Netflix在把内容放进推荐系统、在合适的时间把合适的内容推到你面前这方面，做得比其他任何平台都好。
Like, the we've I've done a lot of reporting on recommendation algorithms over the years, and one of the things that is sort of seemingly true about Netflix is that it has done a better job than just about anybody else of putting content into a recommendation machine to put the right thing in front of you at the right time.
它在这方面确实非常出色。
It is very good at that.
但它缺少的，是像YouTube那样庞大的内容总量来支撑这套系统。
What it has not had is the raw volume of content to do that with that something like YouTube has.
所以对奈飞来说，他们的意思是：我们知道你爱看什么。
And so maybe for Netflix, what they're saying is like, well, we know what you wanna watch.
只是我们平台上没有这些内容。
We just don't have it on the service.
不如先把所有内容都搞到平台上来，再推到你面前。
Let's go get it all on the service, and then we can put it in front of you.
我觉得这个说法背后是有道理的。
And I I think, like, I I can see the spirit of that theory.
但我一听说你让我来看《黑镜》，结果我根本没看到，就觉得这说不通了。
I just feel like it doesn't hold up the minute you tell me that I I came here to watch, you know, BEEF, which I didn't.
结果你反而给我推一堆老掉牙的 BuzzFeed YouTube 视频，因为在你们的系统里，这都是一回事。
And instead, you're gonna show me a bunch of, like, old BuzzFeed YouTube videos because structurally to you, that's the same thing.
我真的觉得这样不对。
Like, I just don't I don't think that's Right.
那家公司认为自己做的是内容分发，而不是卖电视剧和电影。
That's a company that believes what they do is distribute content, not sell you sell you TV and movies.
是的
Yeah.
这是一个错误。
And that is a mistake.
好吧。
Okay.
让我把两个观点放在一起说。
Let me put two ideas next to you.
好吧。
Okay.
一方面，YouTube会更快地激励创作者制作看起来像电视节目的内容。
One, YouTube is gonna end up incentivizing its creators to make things that look like TV Mhmm.
而Netflix要拥有足够多像YouTube那样的内容，还得花更长时间。
Faster than Netflix will get to having enough stuff that looks like YouTube.
我觉得这话没错。
I think that's right.
我的意思是，YouTube 早就在这条路上走得很远了。
I mean, that's YouTube is already well down that road.
它已经在制作这类节目了。
It's it's making those kinds of shows.
它还重新设计了电视应用，让它看起来像
It's it rebuilt the TV app to look like
一台电视流媒体平台，还说它的电视端增长比任何其他平台都快。
a television streaming tell you that it's growing faster on TV than any other platform.
是的。
Yeah.
这才是新的竞争。
This is the new race.
对吧？
Right?
对吧？
Right?
以前呢，我们得赶在 HBO 变成我们之前先变成 HBO，那时候我们的唯一竞争对手都快睡着了。
Like, before it was we had to become HBO, before they become us, then it was our only competition to sleep.
现在呢，你和我都觉得，Netflix 必须赶在 YouTube 超过我们之前，先超越 YouTube。
And now and you and I are saying, it very much feels like Netflix is that we have to overtake YouTube before YouTube overtakes us.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得你说得完全对。
I think you're absolutely right.
如果要打个比方，YouTube 已经遥遥领先了。
If you were if you were to handicap that race, YouTube is well ahead.
那你觉得 Netflix 在流媒体赛道的 90 分制里能得多少分？
So where would you put Netflix on the go 90 scale of Doom streaming services?
我的意思是，大概只有个位数吧。
I mean, it's it's like a it's in the low single digits.
对吧？
Right?
就相当于两分或者三分吧。
It's like a it's like a two or a three.
但对我来说，重要的是我越来越说不清Netflix到底是什么了。
But I think it is it is just meaningful to me that it doesn't I don't know what Netflix is anymore.
我都不确定Netflix在我生活中还有什么价值。
Like, I don't know what the value prop of Netflix is in my life anymore.
你看看那些剧，确实有些不错，我也看过不少。
But you you you look at all those shows, and some of them are good, and I've seen a bunch of them.
但没有哪一部能称得上是今年的爆款剧。
None of those are, like, the shows of the year.
对吧？
Right?
就连看艾美奖，大家讨论最多的也是《Pluribus》。
Like, even looking at the Emmys, it's like Pluribus was a show a lot of people talked about.
《Widow's Bay》大受欢迎，很多人在聊，而《The Pit》已经连续两年被当成年度最佳剧集了，这确实很了不起。
Widow's Bay was a huge hit that a lot of people talked The Pit is probably the show of the year for the second year running, which is pretty impressive.
Netflix根本就不是那种你非得专门去打开看的东西。
It it just Netflix is not a thing you sort of have to go to.
它就是个背景音，随便放着就行。
It's a thing you just sort of have in the background.
这不就跟YouTube一样了吗？
And, boy, is that just already YouTube.
是的。
Yep.
好的。
Alright.
这是我的第二个观点。
Here's my here's my second one.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
说吧。
Hit me.
这是我最激进的观点。
Here's my hottest take.
好吧。
Okay.
Netflix 应该收购 Xbox。
Netflix should buy Xbox.
哇哦。
Wow.
这不就是我猜你会说的方向吗？
Is that not where I thought that was going?
好吧。
Okay.
最激进的观点。
Hottest take.
Netflix 应该收购 Xbox。
Netflix should buy Xbox.
说来听听。
Hit me with it.
我们先从Xbox这边说起吧。
Well, we'll start from the Xbox side of the house.
Xbox一团糟。
Xbox is a disaster.
我知道这一点，因为负责Xbox的人一直在发内部备忘录，说这地方问题太大了。
I I and I know this because the people running Xbox keep issuing memos saying it's a disaster.
没错。
Yes.
对吧？
Right?
阿莎·沙马刚发了一份重磅备忘录，说必须彻底重新调整。
Asha Sharma just put out the big memo being like, I gotta reset this whole thing.
我们赚不到足够的钱。
We don't make enough money.
我觉得她说的是，我们每投入一美元到Xbox，就会亏掉六十八美分。
I think she said something like, for every dollar we put into Xbox, we lose 68¢.
听起来挺糟的。
Seems bad.
这简直是我在业内见过的规模最大的烂生意之一。
That is one of the worst businesses I've heard of at at massive scale in this industry.
等等。
Oh, wait.
其实是六十四美分。
It was 64¢.
天哪。
Shit.
六十四？抱歉。
64 I'm sorry.
对不起。
I'm I'm sorry.
这多出来的4分钱
That that extra 4¢ is
一切都变了。
Changes everything.
微软的算盘打得可精了，一年下来能多买三块显卡。
And the calculus of Microsoft is really gonna you can buy three more GPUs over the course of one year.
这生意太亏了，她把包袱全甩掉了。
That's a bad business, and she is stripping it way down.
是啊。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
你瞧，她把那些大工作室都拆分出去了。
Like, you can see that she's spinning off the big studios.
她还在留下的工作室里大裁员，集中精力搞《我的世界》和那些能稳稳赚钱的大型服务型游戏。
She's firing people at all the other studios that she's keeping, and she's focusing her energy on, like, Minecraft and, like, the big multiservice games that kinda print money.
她希望每天能有一十亿玩家，这
And she wants to be at a billion players a day, which is
谁不这么想呢？
Don't we all?
这是个庞大的数字。
Which is a huge number.
我觉得《The Vergecast》也该成为每天吸引十亿人娱乐的平台之一。
I think the Vergecast should be one of the platforms that entertains billions of people a day.
每天十亿玩家，其实是我最爱的《Fat Show》歌曲。
A billion players a day is is my favorite Fat Show song, actually.
抱歉。
Sorry.
这笑话不错。
That's a good joke.
不过呢，你确实能做到。
Anyhow and you could get there.
我的意思是，我知道很多人都在说，安德鲁，还有我们，都觉得这个数字太大了。
Like, I know there's, like, a lot like, Andrew, us, a big piece being like that this number is big.
对。
Mhmm.
他说，整个计划根本说不通。
And, like, he's like, this whole plan doesn't make any sense.
说白了，答案就是这个数字实在太大了，根本达不到。
And, basically, the answer is this number is really big, and you can't get there.
就算把《糖果传奇》还有他们其他那些热门休闲游戏都算上，这个目标也大得离谱。
Even if you count Candy Crush, right, and all the other sort of big casual games that they have, that's a huge goal that you have to get to.
我觉得你之所以会说这个目标——我觉得以微软现在的商业模式和对AI的全面押注，根本不可能实现——是因为你得砸进去巨额资金，做海量营销，还得跟睡觉抢时间。
I think the reason that you would say that goal, which is, I think, impossible for Microsoft to reach with its current economics and commitment to AI over everything else, is that you have to pump a lot of money in the system and do a lot of marketing, and you have to compete with sleep.
你得说，我们要在所有这些领域，打败其他所有形式的娱乐。
You you have to say, we're gonna win in all of these places over every other kind of entertainment.
没错。
Right.
所以你很可能会在手机上玩游戏。
Such that you're gonna play a game probably on a phone.
Netflix 一直想方设法挤进你的手机。
Netflix has been desperate to get itself on your phone.
没错。
True.
对。
Yeah.
他们真的很想进入你的手机。
They are desperate to get on your phone.
这就是他们做游戏的原因。
They that is why they've done games.
他们把手机应用改得更像 TikTok，也是这个原因。
It's why they've revamped their mobile app to be more TikTok y.
他们现在做播客之类的事，大概也是出于同样的考虑。
It's probably why they're doing podcasts and stuff now.
对吧？
Right?
这本质上就是人们在手机上观看的移动内容。
This is inherently mobile content than people are watching on their phones.
那为什么不直接收购一家游戏公司，把这部分额外的注意力都抓过来呢？
Well, why not just buy the gaming company and capture a bunch of that additional attention?
作为Netflix，你已经有能力继续从各个工作室采购内容，而你本来就擅长判断该采购什么内容、在什么时候推给哪些用户。
You would have license then as as Netflix to continue to sort of spin out of studios, but you are already really good at knowing what content to license and put in front of a bunch of people as a distributor and recommend the right stuff to the right people at the right time.
然后你就能直接跟手机平台抗衡——毕竟正是这些平台扼杀了微软做游戏串流的野心，还试图把你的手机变成Xbox，你看吧。
And then you would body up against the phone platforms, which basically killed Microsoft's ambitions to do game streaming and find ways to turn your phone into an Xbox and say, look.
你想要Netflix在这里。
You want Netflix here.
你想要Netflix，还有你所有的其他平台。
You want Netflix and all your other platforms.
我们必须以一种对我们来说经济可行的方式，把游戏整合进Netflix应用里。
We need to put games on in the Netflix app in some way that is economically viable for us.
全球各地的监管机构更有可能理解Netflix需要这么做，而不是微软。
And there's a lot of regulators around the world who are gonna look more kindly upon Netflix needing to do this than Microsoft.
没错。
Yes.
因为这本来就是Netflix的核心业务。
Because it is Netflix's actual business.
因为这本来就是Netflix的核心业务。
Because it's Netflix's actual business.
对微软来说，他们可能觉得，好吧。
And they're I think to Microsoft, they're like, yeah.
去起诉吧。
File lawsuits.
看看会怎样。
Let's see what happens.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
但我觉得Netflix更有理由理直气壮地说，你看。
But I think Netflix has a much stronger case to say, look.
我们需要扩大娱乐内容的选择范围，而这些平台政策阻碍了我们这么做。
We need to expand the range of entertainment options, and these platform policies are keeping us from doing it.
至于你，他们可能根本不在乎主机硬件。
And you would you would just get maybe not the maybe maybe they don't care about the console hardware.
你会拥有那些制作游戏的创意人才生态，来推动你需要的各种IP，以及所有工作室和你需要的其他资源。
You would get the ecosystem of creatives that make games to drive whatever IP that you need to drive in all the studios and all the things you need to.
如果你相信娱乐的未来是以互动性和游戏为核心，那么Xbox最合理的归宿就是他们，而我并不这么认为。
They are they are probably the most logical home for Xbox if you believe the future of entertainment has interactivity and gaming at the center, which I want to say I do not.
确实。
Yeah.
但很多人确实这么认为。
But many, many, many people do.
没错。
Correct.
我最喜欢这一点的是，你刚才说的每一句都合情合理，但我坚信，如果真这么干，结果一定会惨不忍睹。
My favorite thing about this is everything you just said makes perfect sense, and I believe with absolute confidence that if that happens, it will go disastrously badly.
对。
Yes.
你刚才那番话简直让人无话可说，
It just like, it you just made
我怀疑现在Netflix的办公室里，可能还有其他类似公司，正在说同样的话。
such a compelling argument that I suspect is being made in the offices of Netflix at this moment and probably, frankly, at a bunch of other companies like this.
你想想，大卫·埃里森难道不会想办法把Xbox并入派拉蒙、华纳、CNN，或者别的什么公司吗？
Like, if you think David Ellison is not gonna try to roll up Xbox into Paramount, Warner, CNN, whatever it's gonna be
哦，大卫·埃里森经常谈游戏。
Oh, David Ellison talks a lot about gaming.
是的。
Yeah.
真的很喜欢聊游戏这件事。
Like, love to talk about gaming.
没错。
Yeah.
就像你刚才说的那些原因，我觉得这两个领域的文化差异实在太大了，任何试图强行跨界进入游戏行业的人，都会发现这事儿特别难搞。
For all the reasons you just described, and I think it would just the the cultures of those two things could not be further away from one another in a way that I think anyone who has tried to back their way into becoming a gaming company has found it very hard to do so.
我觉得索尼从旗下的电影公司身上赚了不少钱，还把《蜘蛛侠》的标志打在了PS3上。
Oh, I think Sony managed to get enormous value from owning Sony movie studios, and the they put the Spider Man font on the PS three.
确实如此。
They did.
那招真不错。
That that was great.
没错。
They did.
索尼可是个极其成功的商业典范，现在人人都该学学它。
And Sony, a famously spectacular business that everyone should try and emulate right now.
好吧。
Alright.
我们换个话题吧。
We we should switch gears.
如果你有别的想法，觉得谁应该收购Xbox，我真想听听，因为现在大家都在说Xbox要被卖出去这件事，尼莱，你最早提到这个，但现在这已经成了普遍的猜测。
If you have another idea for who should buy Xbox, I I wanna hear it because I think the the idea that all of this is happening for Xbox to be sold to somebody, Nilay, a, I think you were kinda there first, but this is in the ether now.
我想知道，你认为谁应该收购Xbox？
And I wanna know who you think should buy Xbox.
我们先休息一下，待会儿再回来。
We should take a break, and then we're gonna come back.
我还有好多关于智能眼镜的尖锐看法要讲。
And I have a bunch of mean things to say about smart glasses.
马上回来。
We'll be right back.
本节目由Framer赞助。
Support for the show comes from Framer.
如果你的团队想要一个看起来精致手工打造、但又能快速上线的网站，Framer 就是为你设计的。
If your team wants a website that looks and feels hand crafted, but is still fast to ship, Framer is built for that.
你可以在可视画布上设计，内置响应式布局、托管和内容管理系统，从第一天起就能直接投入生产。
You design on a visual canvas with responsive layouts, hosting, and a CMS built in, so the work is production ready from day one.
智能助手会陪你一起起草页面、优化模块，然后你只需审核并发布最终版本。
Agents work alongside you to draft pages and polish sections, then you review and publish what goes live.
Framer 是为创作者、团队和企业打造的专业建站工具，适合那些追求专业品质、注重每一个细节的人。
Framer is the pro site builder for creators, teams, and businesses that want a professional site and care enough to get every detail right.
智能助手填补了 AI 生成创意与实际可用网站之间的鸿沟。
Agents solve the gap between AI generated ideas and production ready website work.
想了解如何让网站发挥更大价值？联系 Framer 专家，或者现在就免费开始搭建，访问 framer.com/verge，享受 Framer Pro 年度计划 30% 折扣。
Learn how you can get more out of your site from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/verge for 30% off our Framer Pro annual plan.
访问 framer.com/verge，立享 30% 折扣。
That's framer.com/verge for 30% off.
famer.com/verge。
Framer.com/verge.
适用规则和限制条件可能适用。
Rules and restrictions may apply.
你好。
Hi.
我是瑞安·雷诺兹，代表Mint Mobile。
Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile.
你是不是在找
Are you looking for
今年夏天想读本轻松的小说？
a beach read this summer?
我建议你看看你的手机话费账单。
May I suggest your big wireless bill?
这故事有悬疑、有谜团，情感线稍微平淡，结局还来个惊人反转——你才发现自己一直被多收钱了。
It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat emotional arc, a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time.
不过幸运的是，Mint的故事要好得多。
Fortunately, though, Mint story is better.
所有套餐每月仅需15美元，包括无限流量。
Every plan, $15 a month, even unlimited.
就这么简单。
That's it.
圆满结局。
Happy ending.
一分钱不花，眼泪不流。
Zero tears.
马上去 mintmobile.com/switch 试试吧。
Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch.
需预付45美元享三个月，90美元享六个月，180美元享十二个月，折合每月15美元，另需缴纳税费。
Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, $180 for twelve month plan required, $15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra.
初始套餐流量必须超过50GB。
Initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes.
网络繁忙时速度会变慢。
Slow when network is busy.
看看
See
本节目由Rippling赞助。
Support for the show comes from Rippling.
留住最好的员工始终应该放在首位，尤其是当他们备受追捧的时候。
Retaining your best employees should always be top of mind, especially if they are in high demand.
虽然未来无法预测，但Rippling AI能帮你识别出哪些员工可能有离职风险。
And while it's impossible to predict the future, Rippling AI can help you identify who might be a flight risk.
这是因为Rippling AI基于你实时的全球员工数据，让你全面掌握企业状况，提前把握趋势。
That's because Rippling AI is built on your live global workforce data, giving you full visibility into your business and the ability to stay ahead of the curve.
比如，你想留住顶尖人才，就问Rippling AI：今年谁是我的核心员工？
Say you want to retain top talent, just ask Rippling AI, who are my top performers this year?
它会立刻生成一份员工报告，列出你的顶尖员工，并附上近期绩效评估和参与度数据作为依据。
And instantly receive a workforce report highlighting your top employees with supporting data like recent performance reviews and engagement metrics.
但这还没完。
But it doesn't stop there.
Rippling AI 能把这些洞察转化为具体的留人方案，比如为表现突出的员工推荐一笔10%的即时奖金。
Rippling AI can turn these insights into a proposed retention strategy, including a recommended 10% spot bonus for top performers.
你只需要点一下确认，这笔奖金就会自动加入下个月的薪资发放。
All you have to do is tap confirm, and the spot bonus is added to next month's pay run.
别再用那些只会空谈的AI了。
So don't settle for AI that's all talk.
前往 rippling.ai/verge，体验能把洞察转化为行动的AI。
Head to rippling.ai/verge and get AI that turns insight into action.
就是 rippling.ai/verge。
That's rippling.ai/verge.
今天就注册，获取专属访问权限。
Sign up for exclusive access today.
好的。
Alright.
我们继续。
We're back.
尼莱，尼莱·帕特尔的智能眼镜Panopticon这周可真是大事件。
Nilay, big week for Nilay Patel's smart glasses Panopticon.
这场人脸识别的噩梦，一直在向我们逼近，而且还在继续。
This is the the facial recognition nightmare that is coming for us all continues to come for us all.
这对你来说真是令人兴奋。
This is really exciting for you.
正在发生。
Happening.
你知道吗，我能不能从头说起一件事？
You know, I'm gonna can I just say this from the beginning?
好几年来我一直说，智能眼镜的杀手级应用就是人脸识别，能认出人脸和对应的名字。
I've been saying for years that the killer app for smart glasses is facial recognition and and being able to do faces and names.
比如你身在世界任何地方，它都能告诉你对方是谁。
Like, you're somewhere in the world that it tells you faces and names.
如果我真的能记住每个人的名字，我早就当上总统了。
And I personally, if I had the ability to remember people's names, I I would be the president.
我心里就是这么觉得的。
I just know this in my heart.
这可是唯一的障碍。
It's the only thing in the way.
每天我都特别尴尬，明明见过面的人，就是想不起来名字，然后只能干笑一下。
It it's just literally me, like, every day being awkward or someone that I've definitely met before and being like, yeah.
我给你介绍一下另一位。
Let me introduce you to someone else real quick.
这真的严重拖累了我的政治前途。
Just to you know, like, I think that has really thwarted my political ambitions.
明白了。
Okay.
我早就说过这些话，但这么多年一直没实现，大家当笑话听，现在可真不是笑话了。
I say this because I've been saying it for years, and it has been so removed from actual shipping reality for years that it's been kind of a joke, and now it's not a joke.
有时候那些片段会突然火起来，但没人知道我其实早就说过这些，就是为了说明这玩意儿有多糟糕。
And every now and again, the clips go viral without the context of the fact that I've been saying it for years to illustrate how bad it would be.
我想明确地说，我觉得这会很糟糕。
And I just want to say clearly, I think it would be bad.
如果为了让我当上总统，而建立一个全球性的面部识别监控系统，我觉得这太糟糕了。
I think it would be bad to create a worldwide facial recognition panopticon so that I can be the president.
如果真有这样的监控系统摆在面前，我会拒绝当总统的机会吗？
Am I going to refuse the opportunity to be the president when presented with such panopticon?
我觉得这是每个人都要自己面对的道德困境，但我知道这确实很糟糕。
I think it's a moral dilemma that each of us will have to choose in our own way, but I know it's bad.
我想再说清楚一点。
And I I just wanna I wanna say this is clear.
我每次都会这么说。
I'm gonna have to say it every single time.
对。
Yeah.
你
You
就是这样。
are.
因为这是杀手级应用，我觉得我们一步步走向全景监控，背后一定有原因。
Because it is the killer app, and I think there's a reason that we're inching our way towards Panopticon.
没错。
Yep.
所以这很糟糕。
So It's bad.
提醒一下，这事儿要么是上周，要么是前一周，我们聊过Meta在智能眼镜里加人脸识别功能的事。
So as a reminder, this is either last week or the week before we talked about the fact that Meta was building a facial recognition feature into its smart glasses.
我记得是《连线》杂志率先曝光了他们在做这个功能。
I think it was Wired that that broke the news that this is a thing that they were building.
他们还没
They hadn't
《连线》的报道说的是，代码已经写进眼镜里了。
turned Wired's news was the code was on the glasses.
对。
Right.
代码确实写在眼镜里了。
The the code was on the glasses.
Meta官方回应是安迪·斯通说的，这人总喜欢在评论区冲人吼叫，他说这说法不诚实。
Meta's official response from Andy Stone, who likes to run around yelling at people on threads, was that this is disingenuous.
我们根本没打算启用这个功能——可你都把代码写进眼镜里了，这回应简直荒唐。
We're we were never gonna turn it on, which is just a fully insane response to you wrote the code and put it on the glasses.
没错。
Like Yep.
这事儿就这么发生了。
That that's just a thing that happened.
所以
So
另外，还有一件持续发酵的事，我们朋友乔安娜·斯特恩做了很棒的报道，讲的是现在兴起了一种行业：有人专门黑掉你的Meta眼镜，让录制时指示灯不亮。
anyway, next to that has been this running story, including some really great reporting by our friend Joanna Stern about this, like, budding industry of people who will basically hack and break your Meta glasses so that the light doesn't turn on when you're recording.
这周Meta更新了系统，一旦检测到有人篡改指示灯，就会直接禁用摄像头。
Meta issued an update this week to make it so that if you tamper with the light, it'll just disable the camera entirely.
这倒是挺明智的。
That's a very good thing.
这是强制更新。
It's a mandatory update.
不错啊，Meta。
Yay, Meta.
恭喜了。
Congratulations.
就在更新发布后不久，就有消息爆出Meta正在开发一款新型智能眼镜，会持续不断地录制内容。
And then immediately immediately after this, news breaks that Meta is working on a new pair of smart glasses that is recording all the time.
他们的想法是每隔几秒拍一张照片、录一段音频，把所有这些数据都收集起来。
The idea is basically to capture snapshots every few seconds of of audio and and pictures and to basically use all of the input in this.
他们所谓的隐私保护方案，是不上传原始数据，只上传元数据。
Their big idea apparently for privacy's sake is to not send the data itself, but to send metadata.
因为历史上，元数据从来都没被逆向还原成原始数据，也从来没造成过什么危险。
Because in history, metadata has never been reverse engineered into data and has never been dangerous.
但问题是，Meta现在到处忙着解释和道歉，应对一连串严重安全漏洞。
So the but, like, there is just this thing happening where Meta is running around trying to explain and apologize for all of its disastrous security breaches.
首席技术官安德鲁·博兹接受了《大西洋月刊》的尼克·汤普森的采访，谈到了这些事。
Andrew Boz, the the CTO, did an interview with Nick Thompson at The Atlantic about a lot of this stuff.
他们聊得挺有意思，博兹试图为这种功能辩护，但明显没说成功。
They had an interesting conversation in which Boz, I would say, very unsuccessfully tried to defend why a feature like this is worth doing.
他们俩，跟你一样，都承认这功能听起来很棒。
They both, like you, agreed.
这功能确实很厉害。
It would be awesome.
我真的很想要这个。
I totally want this.
然后尼克就问了：但你怎么解释那些其他的问题呢？
And then Nick was like, but but how do you how do you reckon with all of the other stuff?
他举了盲人群体和退伍军人需要这类功能的例子，这话说得没错，但用这种方式来为这样的功能辩护，简直虚伪到了极点。
And he used the examples of the the blind community and veterans who need features like this, and that is both true and just an unbelievably disingenuous way to try and defend a feature like this.
如果你真想以无障碍为由，硬生生把一个功能塞进几十亿人用的产品里，那我只能说：别闹了。
Like, I if if you are going to use accessibility as a reason to, like, ham fist a feature into a thing for billions of people, no.
但话说回来，他们一边忙着做这些公关，一边还在拼命加速，让这款产品变得更侵犯隐私、更成问题，完全不顾大家早就对智能眼镜的种种不满。
But anyway, even as they're running around doing this, they are also just pushing ahead as fast as they possibly can to make this thing more and more privacy damaging and problematic and run at all of the things that people already hate about where these glasses are going.
我总觉得，就像十三四年前，‘玻璃洞’现象让智能眼镜一度彻底凉了。
And I sort of feel like in the same way that, what, thirteen, fourteen years ago now, the glass hole phenomenon ended smart glasses for a period of time.
后来我问过一些人，他们说：我们当时有个项目，Google Glass一出来，立马就砍了，根本没法继续。
Like, I talked to people years after that who were like, we had a project and we killed it after Google Glass because we just couldn't.
是Google毁了这一切。
It was Google ruined it for everybody.
它让整个行业倒退了好多年。
It set this industry way behind.
现在我觉得，Meta正站在同样的位置上，重演这一切。
I feel like Meta is in the middle of doing that right now.
这会彻底毁掉智能眼镜的形象，让别人都没机会尝试了。
It is it is going to establish and ruin the idea of smart glasses before anybody else even gets to try.
我看过一个视频。
I saw a video.
就是那个网红莉比·杜恩。
You know, Libby Dune, the influencer.
她是个很有名的网红。
She's like a famous influencer.
她发了个视频，我们新闻部还专门讨论过。
She posted a video, and we talked about it in our newsroom.
她说有人在卖她的旅行行程。
And she's like, people sell my travel itineraries.
有人专门倒卖她坐飞机去哪的信息，都成黑市了。
Like, they there's a black market for where she's going on planes.
她一到机场，就被围堵了。
And then she's accosted when she lands in the airport.
她特别提到，这让她觉得非常奇怪且危险。一下飞机，就有一堆怪人在那儿等着给她拍照。
And she specifically was like, this is really weird and dangerous for me that I get off the plane, a and bunch of weirdos are there to, like, take my picture.
她还特别指出，那些人全都戴着Meta的眼镜。
And then she specifically was like, and they're all wearing Meta glasses.
哇，真的假的。
Oh, wow.
看来这确实成了某种趋势。
And it's become it's becoming that thing.
对吧？
Right?
大家就是这么联想的。
Like, that's the association people are making with it.
这就成了某种特定怪人的专属玩意儿。
Like, this is a thing for a particular class of weirdos.
确实。
Yeah.
我有些朋友是真正的环球旅行者，总爱玩极限运动。
I have I have friends who are, like, world travelers, and they're always, like, doing action sports.
他们的Instagram视频都是用Meta眼镜拍的，比如冲浪或者滑雪的时候，其实有些使用场景是挺正常、无害的。
And, you know, their Instagram feeds are all on their Meta glasses as they're, like, surfing and going down like, there's some set of uses that are good and benign.
没错。
Sure.
冲浪时戴个GoPro在头上，这完全没问题。
Wearing wearing a GoPro on your head while you surf, not a problem.
但要是走路时头上戴着GoPro，那就不一样了。
Wearing a GoPro on your head while you, like, walk through
网红圈里用这个的成本是
The cost in stock influencers is
挺糟糕的。
bad.
估计挺糟糕的。
Probably bad.
就是有一种感觉，我觉得这位网红特别有名。
Like, there's just something about that where I was like, this is a very famous influencer.
她真的是有影响力的人物。
She had like, she literally is influential.
她说自己感到危险，而她点名批评的产品就是Meta眼镜。
And she's like, I feel at danger, and then the product she called out was Meta Glasses.
我一直在琢磨这件事，总觉得哪里不对劲。
And I there's something there that I've just been stuck on.
这到底意味着什么？
Like, what is that a signal of?
我还没完全想明白。
I haven't quite figured it out.
我说不太清楚，但这个产品已经开始象征我们彼此对待的方式了。
I can't quite articulate it, but the the product is starting to stand in as a, like, a symbol of how we treat each other.
对。
Yes.
你明白吗
Do you know
我的意思是
what I
我的意思
mean?
这其实是一种不尊重的表现
Like, it it means disrespect in some way.
这对Meta来说是个大问题，因为他们的整个品牌理念就是不把你放在眼里
This is an enormous problem for Meta whose entire brand is we don't respect you.
对吧
Right?
这正是问题所在
Like, this is this is the problem.
他们推出的这款产品，最能体现他们的价值观——东西归我们所有
Like, they made the product that most communicates their values, which is, it belongs to us.
不好意思。
Sorry.
我们认真听你说。
We're we're gonna listen to you.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Yeah.
至于那些说Instagram在听你说话的解释，比如你和朋友在同一个地方、连着同一个Wi-Fi之类的。
And for all of the Instagram is listening to you explanations about how they're actually, you know, like, you're on the same Wi Fi network as your friend in the same place.
所以，你一搜旅行相关内容，
So, like, they search for travel.
它就立马推给你相关广告。
Like, you can do it.
你完全可以套用那种程序化广告技术的说辞来解释Instagram为什么好像在监听你，然后那副眼镜还时刻盯着你。
You can back into the programmatic ad tech explanation for why Instagram is listening to you, and then the glasses are gonna watch you all the time.
对
Mhmm.
那你这就完了。
And now you're done.
还有你认识的每个人。
And everyone you know.
还有你认识的每个人。
And everyone you know.
对
Mhmm.
还有，波兹解释过那个面部和姓名功能，叫名签。
And, you know, Boz's explanation of how the the faces and names feature would work, it's called name tag.
他说，只有那些真正向你介绍过自己、并且同意参与的人才会被识别，数据用哈希处理，全部存在本地。
He's like, it would just be people that have actually introduced themselves to you that have opted in, and it's hashes, and it's all stored locally.
然后你就会说，记得那个人。
And you would say, remember that person.
你会觉得，这一切听着都没问题，但那个人根本没同意你这样记住他。
And you're like, this all sounds fine, except that person doesn't consent to be remembered in this way.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
戴着眼镜的那个人，并没有同意你存储他面部的哈希数据，以后再调出来。
The the person on the other side of the glasses does not consent to me storing a hash of their face and then recalling it later.
也许他能接受你用自己那副血肉之躯的大脑记住他，但他肯定不乐意让你的电脑这么做。
Like, maybe maybe they would like it if I did that with my dumb meat sack of a brain, but they would probably have a lot of feelings about my computer doing that.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
对吧？
Right?
而且天啊，肯定会有办法绕过这个系统。
And and, god, are there going to be ways to break that system.
就算这个系统设计得再完美，我能不能站到电视前，用电视播放一段视频就破解它？
Even in the perfect version of that system, can I, like, go stand up close to my TV and solve that problem with a video on my television?
这还不确定。
It's unclear.
对吧？
Right?
我们还没实际用过这东西，但这是他们为它做的辩护。
We have not used the thing, but this is their defense of it.
就像是，没错。
It's like Right.
他们把系统限制在本地使用。
We limit it to, like, a local system.
然后他提到了各个州的不同法律，这些法律让这种技术很难推广。
And then he talked about the various laws in various states that are, like, make it hard to ship.
他说，伊利诺伊州有个特别蠢的法律。
He's like, in Illinois, you got this dumb law.
根本不是那么回事。
And it's like, no.
伊利诺伊州的民众通过了一项法律，禁止使用生物识别面部识别技术。
The people in Illinois passed a law saying biometric face recognition is illegal.
没错。
Yep.
我觉得他们对这项法律挺满意的。
And I think they're pretty happy about that law.
对啊。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得总的来说，这类法律会越来越多，因为大家都不希望这种事情发生。
Like, I I I think on balance, there's gonna be more of those because people don't want this to happen.
他们觉得这眼镜是侵犯隐私，而Meta的品牌形象本来就和侵犯隐私挂钩。
They perceive the glasses as an invasion, and Meta's whole brand is invasion of privacy.
不管他们愿不愿意，公众就是这么看待他们的。
Like, whether or not they want it to be, that is what the people associate with them.
对。
Yeah.
所有这些，我觉得都跟大家梦想中的AR眼镜脱不开关系。
All of this, I think, is next to the big dream of everybody wants the AR glasses.
对吧？
Right?
人人都在想办法做出自己的AR眼镜。
Everyone is trying to build their way to AR glasses in some way.
如果你真要做AR眼镜，就得有个一直开着的摄像头，时刻盯着你周围的世界。
And if you're gonna have AR glasses, you need a camera that is always on looking at the world next to you Yep.
把这些视觉信息传送到某个地方的电脑上，处理之后，再把数据叠加到现实画面里——不管是通过你眼前的透明镜片投射真实光线，还是像Vision Pro那样用屏幕显示，你都得先处理好周围世界的视觉信息。
Sending that visual information to something, to some computer somewhere, processing it, and then putting data over some something, whether it's real light and the lenses in front of you and clear lenses or whether it's a VisionPRO headset and it screens and you're passing through whatever it is, you need to process the visual information from the world around you.
是的
Yeah.
这种技术也有很多正当的用途。
And there are lots of benign uses for this.
我是艺术博物馆。
I'm an art museum.
我只是想多了解我正在看的那幅画。
I just wanna know more about the painting I'm looking at.
这种技术也绝对有不正当的用途。
There are absolutely not benign uses for this.
但没人正视过一个事实：最终，你得持续不断地记录一切。
But no one has contended with the fact that at the end of it, you have to record everything all the time.
对
Mhmm.
因为以前根本不存在能大规模实现这种技术的条件。
Because the technology to do that at scale simply has not existed.
我认为，这种试图抓取快照、收集元数据的做法，只是第一步，最终我们会实现全天候记录一切，以便在你周围的现实世界之上叠加增强现实信息。
And I think this meta attempt to take snapshots and do metadata is is the first baby step towards we're gonna record everything all the time so we can layer AR information over the world around you.
是的。
Yeah.
讽刺的是，Instagram 不用手机麦克风录音的一个最有力理由，恰恰是因为这么做根本不现实。
Ironically, one of the most compelling explanations for Instagram is not recording you using the microphone on your phone has been that it's actually just impractical to do that.
对。
Like Yep.
让十亿Instagram用户同时开启麦克风，把所有音频上传到云端并处理，成本高得离谱，就算他们想这么做，也根本做不到——这正是Instagram不这么做的众多合理原因之一。
To to light up the microphone for a billion Instagram users and then store all of that audio in the cloud and process it is so prohibitively expensive that they actually just couldn't do it even if they wanted to is a very one of the many compelling reasons that Instagram isn't doing that.
但现在有越来越多的证据表明，这种情况已经变了，实际上人人都在拼命收集你的数据。
There's a bunch of evidence that says that's no longer true, that actually everyone is desperately trying to get all of your data.
Meta 自己就给员工推出了一项计划，说我们要记录你们的每一次按键。
Meta itself rolled out this program to its employees saying, we're gonna track all your keystrokes.
我们要追踪你们如何使用电脑，好让我们的AI模型学会怎么操作电脑。
We're gonna track how you use your computer so that we can teach our AI models how to use computers.
在人工智能领域，人人都会说，他们最想要的就是源源不断的更多数据。
Like, everyone in the AI space will tell you that all they want is more data all the time.
只要能拿到，不管多奇怪、多离谱的数据，他们都照单全收。
They will they will take all of it they can get no matter how, like, wacky or weird it is.
让计算能力去处理这些就行了。
Let the compute do the work.
所以现在，这件事从技术上原本难到几乎不可能，突然变成了一个巨大的优势。
And so suddenly, this goes from being kinda prohibitively difficult from a technology perspective to being kind of a huge upside.
你只能指望做这件事的公司能好好保管这些数据，这可是个巨大的飞跃。
And you're gonna have to rely on the company that is going to do this to treat that data well, which is just a big, huge, giant leap.
你还记得几年前微软推出的那个Recall功能吗？
I mean, do you remember Microsoft recall from whatever that was a couple years ago now?
最初微软说，所有数据都存在本地。
That the first run of that was Microsoft saying, it's locally stored.
而且是加密的。
It's encrypted.
所有数据都完全保存在你的设备上，别人碰不到。
It's completely private to your device.
我们很清楚这里头的隐私风险。
We understand the privacy risks here.
这功能就是专为你个人设计的。
This is this is meant just for you.
结果发现，他们居然把大量数据以明文形式存到了你电脑的数据库里。
And then it turned out they were just storing a huge amount of the data in plain text databases on your computer.
也就是说，要是我把电脑落在咖啡馆，别人就能直接翻看我过去所有操作记录。
So that, like, if I if I leave my computer at a coffee shop, you can just look at everything I've ever done on my computer.
这里头的漏洞实在太多了，短期内根本不可能真正安全。
Like, this there are so many attack surfaces here that it there is just no shot of getting this right at any point in the near or immediate future.
我真不敢相信，尤其是Meta，还在拼命推这种东西。
And I cannot believe that Meta, in particular, continues to try to push at this.
我一直想搞明白的一点是：我们是不是根本就碰上了智能眼镜的死结——也就是说，做智能眼镜就免不了这种侵入式的设计？
And this this is, like, the thing I keep trying to sort through in my head is, do we have a fundamental smart glasses problem, which is just that we're gonna keep running into this same thing over and over again that you can't do smart glasses without the invasive stuff?
这根本就是设计如此，不是什么漏洞。
It's it's literally it's a feature, not a bug.
这问题会一直跟着它，没完没了。
And this is just a problem that is going to follow it forever.
还是说，现在Meta恰恰是最不适合为这项技术辩护的公司？
Or is it just that Meta is the absolute worst possible advocate for this technology at this time?
如果换成其他公司，比如苹果在主导这项技术，我们会感觉不一样吗？
And if some other company like, if if Apple were leading this race instead of Meta, would we feel differently about it?
因为总的来说，人们信任苹果，却不信任Meta。
Because by and large, people trust Apple in a way that they don't trust Meta.
我实在没法在脑子里把这两件事分开来看。
I can't I can't peel those two things apart in my head.
这确实是两个方面都有。
It's definitely both.
当然。
Sure.
Meta在隐私方面的声誉简直一塌糊涂。
Meta's brand when it comes to privacy is garbage.
我觉得Meta整体的声誉都很差。
And I think Meta's brand in general is garbage.
没错。
Yes.
Meta根本不是一家受人喜爱的公司。
I I I it's not Meta is not a beloved company.
他们就是直截了当的不靠谱。
They're just straightforwardly.
就连马克·扎克伯格宣布要收集所有员工数据来训练AI的方式，都极其缺乏人性。
And even the way Mark Zuckerberg rolled out the word tracking all of our employees to train AI was so fundamentally dehumanizing.
他说过，我们本来可以从全世界的人身上收集数据，但我们觉得Meta已经雇了最聪明的人。
He said something like, we could go collect this data from all the people in the world, but we think we've hired all the smartest people at Meta.
所以我们决定从你们身上收集数据，因为你们使用电脑的方式比谁都更聪明。
So we're gonna collect the data from you because the way you use computers is smarter than everyone else.
这就像是说，
And it's like,
我们把那些口碑好的品牌都放进大桶里。
We put the good brands in vats.
你知道吧，
You know
我的意思是，
what I mean?
就是，没错，
Like, that yeah.
我们这么做，简直就像在搞一种饮食优生学。
It's like, we're good we're doing this, like, this, like, diet eugenics.
这话说得，真是把员工当成了某种奇怪的实验对象。
Like, it was, like, so it's just a weird way of talking about the people that you employ.
对吧？
Right?
我得盯着你，因为你太聪明了。
Like, I have to surveil you because you're smart.
这事儿挺怪的。
It's weird.
没错。
Yes.
这家公司骨子里跟人性脱节了，我怎么都放不下，因为他们太想掌控一个平台了。
There's just, like, there's some disconnect from humanity at the center of that company that I I cannot stop thinking about because they are desperate to own a platform.
他们迫切想摆脱对 iOS 和 Android 以及 App Store 经济模式的依赖，也想摆脱苹果随时能关闭追踪功能这些事——这些事，苹果和 Meta 早就琢磨透了。
They are desperate to break away from their dependence on iOS and Android and the App Store economics and Apple being able to turn off tracking and all this stuff that Apple and Meta have thought about for years.
明白了。
Okay.
然后你就会想，人们确实信任苹果。
Then you're like, well, people trust Apple.
你知道人们觉得是谁在监听他们，好推送广告吗？
Do you know what people think is listening to them to do the ads?
都是iPhone。
They're iPhones.
没错。
True.
对。
Yeah.
你可以一直相信苹果。
You can trust Apple all you want.
说苹果是注重隐私的公司。
Be like, Apple's the privacy company.
但90%的人都觉得，手机在偷听他们。
And then 90% of people are like, my phone's listening to me.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
Very true.
Instagram 一直在监听我。
Instagram is listening to me all the time.
然后你就会想，那苹果有阻止吗？
And it's like, well, did Apple stop it?
他们说，我也不清楚。
They're like, I don't know.
它一直在监听我。
It's listening to me all the time.
而且这其实也没那么重要。
And it kinda just doesn't matter.
我觉得，整个科技行业在保护用户免受明显困扰方面，口碑并不好。
Like, I think tech companies as a whole do not have some great reputation for actually protecting people from the experiences they're obviously having.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得确实如此
I think that's
没错。
right.
真的每个人都相信苹果会在iPhone用两年后故意降频，逼你换新机吗？
Does every single person believe that Apple slows down their iPhone after two years so they have to buy a new one?
嗯，有可能吧。
Like, sure.
那这种信任还能不能用在别的地方呢？
Like, can you trade on that trust in other ways?
也许吧。
Maybe.
但现实是，要做增强现实眼镜，你得在眼睛旁边装个摄像头，持续拍摄你看到的一切，再实时处理这些画面叠加信息。
But the reality is to make augmented reality glasses, you need to put a camera next to your eyes that is continuously recording everything you see and processing that to put information over it.
这没别的办法，也不可能有个芯片能塞进镜腿里，既够强大又能省电，实时完成这些运算。
There is not another way around it, and there's certainly not a chip that can fit in the stem of the glasses that is both powerful enough and power miserly enough to do that in real time.
你必须把数据传到云端。
You have to send that data to a cloud.
你非得这么做不可。
You gotta do it.
根本没别的办法。
There there just isn't another choice.
或者你可以做个像Vision Pro那么大的设备，把电池包放在别处。
Or you can build something the size of a Vision Pro with a battery pack that lives somewhere else.
对，没错。
Like Right.
这世界上目前就只有这两种选择。
Those are those are the current choices in this world.
这意味着，如果你想做出大家觉得下一代必备的产品，你就得侵犯人们的隐私。
And it just means, like, if you want to build the product that everyone thinks is the next thing, you are going to have to invade people's privacy.
也许你不该这么做。
And maybe you shouldn't.
其实有非常充分的理由说：不行。
Like, there's a incredible argument for, nope.
你不该这么做。
You shouldn't do that.
确实不该。
Nope.
为了做出这样的产品，社会所要付出的代价实在太高了，我们该叫停了。
The trade offs required to make this product are so high at a societal level that we should stop it.
没错。
Mhmm.
我不知道现在有谁有能力提出这样的观点。
I don't know who is positioned to make that argument today.
我们国家似乎还没能力全面讨论科技的风险与回报，然后告诉所有人该停下。
It does not appear to be in our nation's capability to have a fulsome argument about the risks and rewards of technology and then it's telling telling everyone to stop.
也许市场能做到。
It might be in the market.
对吧？
Right?
这些眼镜可能会被人从脸上扯下来摔碎。
Like, these glasses might get pulled off people's faces and smashed.
我觉得，全国各地的地方政府已经开始对数据中心产生抵制了。
I think we can see the opposition at data centers happening in, like, local governments around the country.
总会发生别的事，但大家真正想要的，是增强现实眼镜——你看一幅画，它就能告诉你是谁画的、这画背后的故事。
Like, something else will happen, but the the thing people want, AR glasses, augmented reality glasses, where you stare at a painting and it tells you what that who painted that painting and what it was.
你在派对上，一下子就能知道那个人的名字。
You are at a party and you just know that person's name.
我要是有这玩意儿，绝对能当总统。
I'm telling you, I'd be the president if I had this case.
我本来就挺有魅力的。
It would I'm I'm already so charming.
我就只是这么个失败的样子。
I'm just like this one failing.
你懂的。
You know?
是的。
Yes.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
这个社会代价太高了。
The social cost of that is too high.
是的。
Yes.
我觉得现在就已经看出来了。
And I think we're seeing it now.
AI的成本太高，而回报太低，而且现在反弹很大。
The cost of AI is too high versus the reward, and there's big backlash.
我认为，Meta根本没法让人相信，和他们这样互动的回报能抵得上社会成本。
And I think Meta has no ability to make the case that the reward is worth the social cost of interacting with Meta in this way.
他们根本毫无公信力来说会保护你。
They they do not have an ounce of credibility to say they're gonna protect you.
而且他们现在有了二十年的证据，表明他们最终会赢。
Well and they have now two decades of evidence to suggest that they'll win in the end.
也就是说，你只需要等待，人们最终会接受。
That that actually all you need to do is wait and people will come around.
而且我认为我一直都这么相信。
And I think I have believed that for a long time.
对吧？
Right?
让我对科技感到最虚无的，就是这种想法：每个人都会站出来反对，说我不想要这个。
And it is the thing that makes me the most nihilistic about tech is this idea that everyone is going to stand in the way and say, I don't want this.
这会很糟糕。
It's gonna be bad.
然后他们来个黑色星期五大促销，大家就都接受了。
And then it'll they'll have a Black Friday sale, and everybody gets on board.
就像这样，想彻底离开谷歌，同时还能对谷歌保持任何态度，这几乎不可能。你最后还是会用谷歌的产品，然后不知不觉就对谷歌产生了斯德哥尔摩综合征。
And, like, everybody it is very hard to leave Google in such a way that you can feel however you want about Google, then you end up using Google products, and you become sort of Stockholm syndrome into Google.
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