iPhone折叠屏可能会让演唱会体验变得更糟

产品变了吗？

Did the product change?

尺寸不一样吗？

Is the size different?

他们不愿意公开评论。

They would not comment on the record.

所以，我也不知道真相是什么。

So, I don't know the truth.

我们得实际测试一下这个东西。

We're gonna have to put this thing to the test.

这是找出这个新世界真相的唯一办法。

It's the only way to find out the truth about this new world.

讽刺的是，这确实让大家开始讨论它，从而减少了关于其他东西有多贵的噪音。

Ironically, it did kind of make people just talk about it, which takes away from as much noise about how much expensive how expensive everything else got.

你知道，这算是有点好感度吧。

You know, there's some goodwill.

没有。

No.

这么说吧，我就拿蒂姆·库克供应链电子表格阴谋论来打个比方。

Here's my I mean, I I'll just do my, like, Tim Cook supply chain spreadsheet conspiracy theory.

对。

Yeah.

来吧。

Let's go.

你得想象一下蒂姆·库克的情况。

So you gotta imagine Tim Cook.

那时候他作为苹果CEO的日子已经所剩无几了。

It's his waning days as Apple CEO.

对吧？

Right?

他心里肯定在想，我的历史地位会是怎么样的呢？

He's he's like, what what is my legacy gonna be?

我得给这孩子铺好路，让他成功。

I gotta set I gotta set this kid up for success.

他还不知道接下来要面对什么。

He doesn't know what's about to hit him.

然后他在Vision Pro里打开Excel，因为他每天用苹果的所有产品。

And he he he opens Excel in his Vision Pro because he uses every Apple product every day.

他戴上Vision Pro，屏幕上大概开了40个Excel窗口，当然都是镜像到他的Mac Studio上的。

So he's puts on the Vision Pro, and he's got, like, 40 Excel's windows open in mirroring, obviously, on his Mac Studio.

他在看苹果所有产品的利润率在哪里。

And he's looking at where all of the margins for Apple products are.

他心想，天哪，我再也不能在MacBook的内存升级上收400%的利润了。

And he's like, man, I can't charge a 400% margin on a RAM upgrade on a MacBook anymore.

价格已经高得离谱了。

The prices are through the roof.

那种好日子已经没了。

That's gone.

那我从哪儿找回这个利润空间呢？

Where am I gonna reclaim this margin?

所以后来他们重新调整了存储的价格，把256GB的版本又拿回来了，但价格涨了不少。

So then they reprice the storage, and they they bring back 256 gigs, but it's a huge price increase.

然后他就想，好吧。

And he's like, alright.

我得挽回一些好感。

I need to get some goodwill.

就是说，我不打算再靠卖配件、转接头来赚200%的利润了，因为我要在存储和内存上留足成本空间，确保以后价格再波动也不会让约翰措手不及。

Like, I'm I'm not gonna sell accessories, dongles at 200% margin anymore because I'm gonna I'm gonna build in enough overhead on the storage and the RAM to make sure that further price shocks don't knock John off his game.

所以他就是在表格里挪来挪去。

So he's just he's just moving the the cells around.

对。

Yeah.

然后他又想，好吧。

And he's like, alright.

我们正在降低抛光布的售价。

We're bringing down polishing cloth.

这里我不需要多赚那十块钱，因为我会在存储上多赚三百块，来撑过这段市场不稳定的时期。

I don't need to make the 10 extra dollars here because I'm gonna make 300 extra dollars on storage to hold us over until this market stabilizes.

他一个人坐在黑暗的办公室里，戴着Vision Pro，用他那迷人的南方口音自言自语。

And he's just saying all this to himself in his very charming southern drawl alone in his office in the Vision Pro in the dark.

这就是为什么苹果的股价能一路飙升。

And and this is why Apple's share price is through the roof.

对。

Yeah.

就是这种出色的供应链管理。

It's that kind of superb supply chain management.

我对我们新的内存价格感到非常兴奋。

I'm so excited about our new RAM prices.

这就是他说的。

That's what he's saying.

是的。

Yes.

我们太兴奋了。

We are so excited.

那是星期二的事。

So that was on Tuesday.

所有Mac和抛光布都让人兴奋。

All the Macs, the polishing cloth excitement.

到了星期三，苹果发出了下一场iPhone活动的邀请函。

Then Wednesday comes, Apple sends out invites for its next iPhone event.

标语是“惊喜与闪耀”。

Tagline is surprise and shine.

总有一天他们会用完这些的。

They are gonna run out of these someday.

他们得想个新的标语策略了。

They're gonna have to figure out a new approach to the taglines.

是9月9号。

It's September 9.

是劳动节后的那个星期三。

It's the Wednesday after Labor Day.

特别的是，这次是星期三，因为通常都是星期二。

Notably a Wednesday because usually they're Tuesdays.

对。

Yes.

但我觉得他们不喜欢让媒体在假期里飞来飞去。

But I don't think that they like press having to fly on holidays.

他们可能也不喜欢让员工在假期里出差。

They probably also don't like having their employees have to fly

在假期里。

on holidays.

这可能是最重要的一点。

That's probably the number one thing.

所以这将是特努斯作为CEO的首次发布会。

So this is gonna be Ternus' first event as CEO.

是的。

Yeah.

而且通常这是iPhone和Apple Watch的发布会。

And, normally, this is the iPhone and Apple Watch event.

我们期待看到完整的系列产品。

We're expecting the full lineups.

今年有些地方我们预计会有所不同。

Some things we're expecting different this year.

据说不会有标准版iPhone 18，只有Pro机型，而且我们可能会看到iPhone折叠屏。

There's supposed to be no standard iPhone 18, just the Pro models, and we're supposed to get an iPhone Fold.

我很好奇，从你们两位的角度来看，今年对折叠屏手机来说是重要的一年。

I'm curious, from both of your perspectives, it's been a big year for foldable phones.

你们觉得它们现在够吸引人了吗？

Do we think they are compelling enough yet?

对吧？

Right?

这是苹果在表明立场。

This is Apple's putting their flag down.

他们觉得这对主流用户来说已经足够了，理论上。

They're saying this is enough for mainstream audience, theoretically.

你觉得折叠屏手机真的到那个程度了吗？

Do we think that foldables have gotten there?

价格会很关键。

The price is gonna be important.

我觉得值得注意的是，他们最近刚推出了租赁计划。

I think it's notable that they just recently announced the leasing program.

对。

Mhmm.

因为他们会大量租赁这些折叠屏手机。

Because they're gonna be leasing a lot of these foldables.

从我的理发师到给我换机油的人，都说‘我爱我的iPhone’。

Everyone from my hairdresser to my oil change guy has been like, I love my iPhone.

我真的很爱我的iPhone，但安卓上那些折叠手机也挺酷的。

I really love my iPhone, but some of those foldable phones on Android are kinda cool.

如果苹果也出折叠手机，我可能会换过去。

I might switch over to that if Apple made that.

有意思。

Interesting.

有很多人这么说？真的吗？

There's a lot Really?

我是认真的。

I am serious.

你——我是认真的。

You're I am serious.

真的吗？

Really?

你的换油师傅？

Your oil change guy?

对，我的换油师傅。

My oil change guy.

你是说你在餐馆里跟特朗普的支持者聊天？

I mean You're talking to Trump voters in diners?

我是说，在我告诉他们我的工作之后……

I mean, it's after it's after I tell them what I do for a

谋生。

living.

所以也许他们只是试着……那报道呢？

So maybe they're just trying to What about be reporting?

我只是……

I'm just

我觉得人们很好奇。

I think people are intrigued.

我觉得价格会很重要。

I don't the price is gonna be important.

非常重要。

Very important.

对。

Yeah.

每次我看到有人拿着剃须刀之类的东西，别人总会问起那把剃须刀，因为看起来很有意思。

Every time I see anybody with a, like, a razor, other people always ask about the razor because they they're fun to look at.

明白。

Mhmm.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得问题是，你能不能走进苹果店，看到一款几乎肯定要两千美元以上的产品，然后忍不住说，你知道吗，我想要这个？

I think the question of whether you can go into an Apple store and look at something that will almost certainly cost north of $2,000 Yeah.

然后忍不住说，你知道吗，我想要这个？

And be compelled to say, you know what I want?

一台iPad。

An iPad.

我觉得，这也许确实是个问题。

I mean, may maybe that is a question.

对吧？

Right?

他们是想把它做成主流产品吗？

It are they trying to make this a mainstream product?

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

我觉得答案是不是。

I think the answer is no.

而且我觉得，之所以没有iPhone 18，其中一个原因就是，如果出了iPhone 18，你就不得不提高价格。

And I think one of the reasons you don't have an iPhone 18 is that you would have no choice but to raise prices on an iPhone 18.

对。

Mhmm.

而保留现有的基础款iPhone，就能继续沿着那条成本下降的曲线走。

Whereas keeping the existing base model iPhone lets you keep riding that cost curve down.

比如，那些模具早就回本了。

Like, all that tooling is long since paid for.

对。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，你不需要再为那款手机投入新的成本。

Like, you don't have to pay new cost into that phone.

所以你可以维持价格，我觉得这对现在的苹果来说非常重要。

So you can hold the price, which I think is very important for Apple right now.

而在最高端的产品上，你只会想，这能行吗？

And at the very high end, you're just like, is this gonna work?

不是想说得太难听，但这感觉更像是Vision Pro的尝试，而不是未来手机的样貌。

Not to be totally rude about it, but it's it it feels more like a Vision Pro shot than a future phone shot.

对。

Right.

所以他们可以按任何他们想要的价格推出这个产品。

So they they can introduce this at whatever price they want.

他们可以看看市场能接受什么价位。

They can see what the market will bear.

最坏的情况就是，他们吸引了一堆人到店里来体验这个产品。

And what the worst case scenario is, they attract a bunch of people to come to their stores and check this thing out.

是的。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I I think that absolutely.

再说一次，我们还没见过它。

Again, I we haven't seen it.

我们不知道它会怎么运作。

We don't know how it's gonna work.

马克从用过它的苹果员工那里得到了一些反馈，他们说我们很喜欢。

Mark had some reporting from Apple employees who've used it, and they're like, we love it.

然后呢？

And it's like, what else?

还有什么？

Say?

对。

Yeah.

但我确实认为这些设备的吸引力始终在于展开后有多好用。

But I do think the promise of these devices always rests in how good is it when you unfold it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且我们一次又一次地看到，人们买了这些手机，却从来不展开它们。

And we have just seen over and over and over again that people buy these phones, and then they do not unfold them.

对。

Yep.

他们最后经常用那个外屏。

They end up using that cover screen a lot.

所以这次改成更方正的形态，可能会带来新的使用习惯。

And so maybe the form factor shift here into that more square form form factor will lead to a new usage pattern.

我觉得还没看到足够多的人用 Fold 8，不知道是不是真的这样，但这就是新的形态。

I don't think we've seen enough people with the Fold eight to to know if that actually happened, but that's the new form factor.

而且我觉得苹果必须回答一个大问题：你有时候想不想用 iPad Mini？

And I think Apple has to answer a great question about, do you wanna use an iPad Mini sometimes?

而且

And

也许我，如果你觉得这是讽刺，其实不是，就是苹果基本上得说服人们买一个 iPad Mini。

maybe the I my my if you're reading this as cynicism and not it's not cynicism, it's just Apple basically has to sell people an iPad Mini.

就像，这里的软件体验会是……然后你得到一个 iPad Mini。

Like, the the software experience here is gonna be and you get an iPad Mini.

不管苹果想不想承认、想不想面对，这都会成为大家议论的焦点。

And whether or not Apple wants to say it or cop to it or think about it, it's gonna be the thing people say.

打开一看，这不就是个iPad嘛。

Oh, it's an iPad when you open it up.

然后随之而来的就是那些相关的评价。

And then that comes with all of that.

我特别好奇这会怎么发展，既包括苹果这边怎么宣传，也包括消费者那边怎么反应。

And I'm just very curious to see how that unfolds, both on Apple side and how they talk about it, and on the consumer side and how people react to it.

我觉得这会让发布会变得特别有意思，不只是因为我们要看到新的苹果硬件，这本身就不常见。

I do think that's gonna make for a very interesting event beyond the fact that we're getting new Apple hardware, which is not that common.

这次发布会会在软件方面有重头戏，而九月的发布会通常不是这样，因为我们会看到他们怎么努力让折叠屏的体验让人觉得值得打开手机。

It's gonna be a software event in a way that the September event usually is not because we're gonna get to see what they are doing to try to make the foldable experience feel like something that is worth opening your phone for.

大卫，你想聊聊相机的事吗？

David, do wanna have a camera crash out?

我可以。

I can do it.

我可以

I can

我可以做两个。

do I can do two of them.

你好像感觉到我了。

You, like, felt me.

你好像感觉到我了

You, like, felt me

我感觉到你了。

I felt you.

想继续往下走。

Trying to trying to move along.

什么？

What?

因为不。

Because No.

不。

No.

绝对不行。

Absolutely not.

我们要在这个问题上停留一分钟。

We're we're gonna sit in this for one minute.

是因为没有长焦镜头吗？

Because there's no telephoto?

你说的是这个吗？

Is that what you're talking about?

不是。

No.

长焦镜头是一回事。

The telephoto is one thing.

我确实觉得，最贵的手机却没有最好的相机系统，这个取舍很有意思。

I I do think having the most expensive phone not have the best camera system is an interesting trade off.

嗯。

Mhmm.

不过我觉得，在高端市场，不是所有人买Pro手机都是因为它的相机最好。

Although, I think at the high end, not everyone buys the Pro phone because it has the best cameras.

这就像是一种相互关联的因果关系。

That's just like a interlinked causality.

长期以来都是这样，所以人们就认为这必然是事实。

Like, that has been true for the longest time so that people think it is necessarily true.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得人们经常花钱买一些并不是最好的东西。

I think people spend money on all kinds of things that are not the best thing all the time.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以也许你买的是它的外形设计。

So maybe you're buying the form factor.

也许你只是想买一个能展开手机的功能。

Maybe you're just buying the ability to unfold your phone.

你知道，就像两千个说唱歌手总会在夜店里炫耀他们掉落的宾利钥匙。

You know, like like, two thousands rappers would always talk about how they would drop their Bentley keys in the club.

对。

Yeah.

也许这只是我从小接触的东西，但这确实是个现象。

Maybe this is just a thing that I grew up with, but this is, a thing.

就像你在炫耀你的钥匙。

Like, you're flashing your keys.

也许你只是想炫耀你的手机。

Like, maybe you just wanna flash your phone.

好。

Great.

我真正好奇的是，我们花了这么多时间在竖屏视频上。

The thing that I'm really curious about is we have spent all of this time verticalizing video.

我们其实已经非常认真地改变了文化的宽高比。

Like, we have switched the aspect ratio of culture in, like, very serious ways.

然后苹果说，又变回横屏了。

And Apple's like, it's landscape again.

我很好奇你对这件事有没有什么看法。

And I'm I'm very curious if you have a point of view on this.

对。

Yeah.

我听过很多人对这件事的各种看法。

I've heard a lot of takes about this from a lot of people.

有些人跟我说，他们真的觉得未来会回到横屏。

There have been people that I've talked to that have said, I really think the future is we're gonna go back to horizontal.

我不这么认为。

I don't think we are.

我觉得当你展开这个手机，你会把它竖过来用，就像用iPad mini一样，这会是人们习惯的使用方式。

I think that when you unfold this phone, you're then gonna turn it vertically and use it like an iPad mini, and that's gonna be the way that people are still used to using their device.

但我觉得，我是说，有一种可能，你知道，它就是内容消费设备。

But I don't think that there's I mean, there's a world in which, you know, you it's the content consumption device.

你看视频是竖屏的，但人们看长视频还是会横过来看。

You watch videos in a vertical format, but people still turn their phones sideways to watch long form video.

所以如果你打开屏幕看长视频或短视频，你还是会把手机横过来。

So if you're watching long or short form video with the screen open, you're still turning your phone sideways.

我觉得它不会对……等等，有什么实际影响。

I don't think it's gonna have a tangible effect effect on how Wait.

我只是想确认一下。

I just wanna make sure.

你的意思是，iPhone折叠屏的用户会打开TikTok，展开设备，然后把它转过来，在巨大的iPad格式上滑动浏览。

Your bet is that iPhone Fold owners are going to open TikTok, unfold their device, and then turn it, and then scroll on a giant iPad format.

也许他们头两次会这么做。

Maybe the first two times they ever do it.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我特别好奇这个。

I'm very curious about that.

我说文化竖屏化，意思是好莱坞最赚钱的现在就是AI生成的竖屏微短剧。

When I say, like, we verticalize the culture, what I mean is the hottest money in Hollywood is, like, AI generated vertical microdramas.

对。

Yeah.

因为那就是现在的潮流。

Because that's the format.

谁知道呢，我就是特别想知道苹果在这次发布会上怎么应对媒体内容的抖音化，他们可能会说，你展开手机，就有一个巨大的横屏显示。

Who know I'm just, like, I'm dying to find out how Apple contends with the TikTokification of media in this event when they're like, and then you unfold the phone and you have a giant landscape display.

对。

Yeah.

可以同时放两个竖屏视频流。

Where you can fit two vertical video feeds.

对。

Yeah.

这就是趋势。

That's the move.

没错，这就是趋势。

That's the move.

而且

And

而且这绝对是

and That's a 100%

趋势。

the move.

它们甚至不完全是竖屏的。

They're not even super vertical.

对吧？

Right?

这就像，因为它不是那种糖果棒式的设计，两边各有一个全屏显示屏。

It's like because it's not the same candy bar style where you have two full screen displays on the side.

那种设计非常方正。

You there it is very squared off.

所以我不太确定。

So I don't know.

我不觉得人们会重新开始看更多长视频内容。

I I don't think people are gonna start watching more long form content again.

我觉得那不会发生。

I don't think that's gonna happen.

但是

But

好的。

Okay.

然后我还有一个关于相机崩溃的问题。

And then here's my other camera crash out question.

好的。

Okay.

我准备好了。

I'm ready.

对。

Yeah.

我就是想，我迫不及待想搞清楚。

I just wanna I can't wait to figure it out.

你打开它，然后会有一个很大的取景器。

You're gonna open it, and then you're gonna have it's gonna be a big viewfinder.

这是德国报道的另一部分。

This was the other piece of the German reporting.

是的。

Yes.

你有了大取景器，就意味着你用巨大的取景器拍横版照片。

You got the big viewfinder, which means you're taking landscape photos with a giant viewfinder.

对。

Yeah.

感觉用这东西能拍出一些特别奇怪的照片。

That feels like we're gonna get some really weird photos out of this thing.

对吧？

Right?

比如，光是构图方面，大家都会从默认的竖屏构图变成横屏构图。

Like, just framing wise, everyone's gonna go from vertical default framing to landscape framing.

这是一点。

That's one thing.

但然后他们会有个巨大的取景器，这必然会改变你构图的方式。

But then they will have a giant viewfinder, which necessarily just changes how you would compose a photo.

我打赌没人会那么做。

My bet is that nobody is gonna do that.

我觉得大家拍照的时候都会把手机合上，个人来说。

I think that everyone's gonna keep the phone closed while they take their photos personally.

就是这样，

That's that's what

当你拿到

When you get

一本奇怪的平装书

a weird, like, paperback book

的时候。

you find.

我的意思是，这些人就是那些在演唱会上举着iPad的人。

I mean, these these are the same people who are holding up their iPad at a concert.

对吧？

Right?

就像，归根结底就是这样。

Like, that's that's what this that's what it boils down to.

对。

Yeah.

第一次看到有人在演唱会上拿出展开的iPhone Fold的时候

The first moment that you get the person with the unfolded iPhone Fold at a concert

那肯定会

It's gonna be

就像在他们身后直播一样。对。

Like, broadcasting behind them Yes.

在iPad的侧屏上。

On the iPad side screen.

是的。

Yeah.

那肯定是个梗。

That's a meme.

我们就在等着这一幕发生。

Like, we're just waiting for that to happen.

对。

Yeah.

因为从今天开始倒计时了。

Because the countdown is on as of today.

如果你看到了，你得把照片发给我们。

If you see it, you need to send us the photos

马上。

immediately.

我已经很烦那些在演唱会上录像的人了，因为他们的手机挡在我前面，我都看不见。

I already get annoyed when people are recording the concert, and I can't see because their phone's in front of me.

如果屏幕有iPad mini那么大，我真的会——

If it's the size of an iPad mini, I'm gonna be really

那你的视野会更好，因为屏幕更大了。

Well, your view will be better because the screen will be bigger.

不。

No.

唯一合理的做法就是带一个全尺寸的iPad，然后站在那个人前面。

The only rational thing to do is to bring a full size iPad and then stand in front of that person.

冲到前面去。

Get to the front.

就像一场全面的军备竞赛。

Like, just a full arms race.

因为全尺寸的iPad不是有完整的摄像头阵列吗？

Because doesn't a full size iPad have the full camera array?

我觉得它有两个。

I think it has two.

我觉得它没有长焦摄像头。

I don't think it has a telephoto camera.

它有激光雷达

It's got LiDAR LiDAR

传感器。

sensor.

对。

Yeah.

不知道为什么。

For some reason.

对。

Yeah.

所以你可以把演唱会录下来

So you can map the concert

然后以3D形式重温。

and and relive it in three d.

在你的Vision Pro里。

In your Vision Pro.

那就是你在轨道上扫描出的3D效果。

There that's your three d scanned on a rail.

你会说，我iPad上存了你的完整3D头像，以备后用。

You're like, I've got a full three d avatar of you saved on my iPad for further use.

我不需要你的Alicia Keys演唱会。

I don't need your Alicia Keys concert.

我自己有。

I got my own.

我们家里就有Alicia Keys。

We got Alicia Keys at home.

好的。

Okay.

这些是我关于相机崩溃的问题。

Those are my those are my camera crash eye questions.

显然，更多细节会揭晓，但我迫不及待想知道。

Obviously, more will be revealed, but I'm dying to revealed.

我的意思是，人们会使用这个东西。

I mean, we're people are gonna use this thing.

它会以最好的方式脱离苹果的控制。

It's gonna it's gonna get away from Apple in the in, like, the best way.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

这些东西的本质就是这样，人们会开始以谁也预料不到的方式去使用它们。

That's the the nature of these things is people start using them in ways no one can predict.

而且每个人的相机都跟iPad Mini一样大，这可能是很长一段时间以来，我们对拍照和摄影方式最难以预料的变化之一。

And everyone's cameras the size of iPad Mini is just one of the most unpredictable changes to just how we have thought about making and taking photos in quite a while.

确实。

That's true.

会很有趣的。

It's gonna be fun.

很期待看到结果。

Very excited to find out.

9月9日。

September 9.

好了。

Alright.

我们还有很多要聊的。

We've got a lot more to talk about.

回来之后我们会聊到Meta的和解协议。

We're going into the meta settlement when we're back.

你有没有想过，摇滚乐是谁发明的，或者弗利特伍德麦克为什么解散，又或者摩城唱片早年是什么样子？

Have you ever wondered who invented rock and roll or why Fleetwood Mac fell apart or what it was like at Motown in the early years?

那么，我正好有个播客

Well, do I have a podcast

要推荐给你？

for you?

我叫威尔·安德森。

My name is Will Anderson.

我是词曲作者、音乐人，也是超级音乐史迷，我非常激动地宣布我的新播客《周一音乐俱乐部》上线了。

I'm a songwriter, a musician, and a huge music history buff, and I'm so excited to announce my new podcast, the Monday Music Club.

我和Vox Media播客网络合作制作了这个播客，因为从小我就喜欢听和读那些关于经典艺术家录音棚和音乐史的故事。

I teamed up to make this podcast with the Vox Media Podcast Network because ever since I was a kid, I loved hearing and reading stories about classic artists recording sessions in music history.

我想找个地方，把我学到的东西分享出来，讲讲那些我最喜欢的故事。

And I wanted to have a place to be able to take what I've learned and share some of those favorites

跟你们一起分享。

with you.

每周一，我都会发布新一期节目，和专家、特邀嘉宾一起深入探讨一个新故事，肯定会特别精彩。

Every Monday, I'll be releasing a new episode and deep diving into a new story with experts and special guests, and it's gonna be a blast.

所以，如果你像我一样是个音乐历史迷，或者只是个普通音乐爱好者，都欢迎加入，因为我保证《周一音乐俱乐部》会是你想听的播客。

So if you're a music history geek like me or even just a casual music fan, jump in because I promise the Monday Music Club is gonna be the podcast for you.

你是不是在工作中拼命努力，却总觉得无论怎么做，经济上就是难以翻身？

Are you stuck in a job working hard but feel like no matter what you do, you just can't seem to get ahead financially?

或者你一直觉得销售是别人的事，跟你没关系？

Or maybe you've always felt like sales is something other people do, not you?

这周在《净资产与放松》节目里，我和谢尔比·萨普聊了聊，她是互联网上的销售女王，教女性如何推销、成交、赚到钱。

Well, this week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm chatting with Shelby Sapp, the internet's queen of sales who teaches women how to pitch, close, and get paid.

无论你是想争取升职、自己创业，还是只想在谈判桌上有一席之地，谢尔比都会为你拆解所有你需要知道的东西：富人的成交心态、阻碍你的最大销售误区，以及为什么学会销售其实是通往财务自由的最快路径。

Whether you're gunning for a promotion, building your own business, or just trying to get a seat at the table, Shelby breaks down everything you need to know, the rich closer mindset, the biggest sales myths holding you back, and why learning how to sell is actually the fastest path to financial freedom.

在您收听播客的任何地方收听，或者前往 youtube.com/yourrichBFF 观看。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrich BFF.

好的。

Alright.

我们回来了。

We're back.

这周 Meta 那边有大新闻。

So big news this week in the world of Meta.

Meta 最近官司缠身。

Meta has had a lot of lawsuits flying its way.

其中最重要的一起是美国各州总检察长联合起诉 Meta，声称其平台尤其是针对青少年和儿童设计得让人上瘾，而且 Meta 在平台设计选择上欺骗了公众。

One of the most important was a lawsuit from attorneys general across The United States who had sued Meta, claiming that its platforms had been made addictive to teenagers and children in particular, and that Meta had deceived people about the design choices they were making.

本周早些时候，Lauren Feiner 和 Adi Robertson 来节目里深入聊过这件事，但我更想谈谈这对 Facebook 和 Instagram 作为应用来说到底意味着什么。

Lauren Feiner and Adi Robertson were on the show earlier this week to get into the weeds on that, but I really wanna talk about what this actually means for Facebook and Instagram as apps.

因为这次和解其实分两部分。

Because there are kind of two halves of this settlement.

一部分是Meta需要支付一笔钱。

One is that Meta has to pay some money.

另一部分是他们对应用要做出一系列改动。

The other is that they have to make a bunch of changes to their apps.

David，你能帮我梳理一下这些改动具体有哪些吗？

David, can you kinda break down for me what some of those changes are?

好的。

Yeah.

这些改动其实挺多的，说实话，我挺希望自己用的应用也能有这些功能，或者至少提供这些选项，虽然我不是青少年。

There's quite a few of these changes, and honestly, I would love to see some of these as changes or at least options in my app, as I am not a teen.

其中一项是每天两小时的使用时间限制。

One of them, two hour daily time limit.

这个限制是Facebook和Instagram累计计算的，可以在家长允许的情况下关闭。

That's cumulative across Facebook and Instagram, which can be turned off with the parent's permission.

我能当自己的家长吗？

Am I my own parent?

希望如此。

I hope so.

还有个夜间模式，可以默认在午夜到早上六点之间屏蔽应用，帮你好好睡觉。

There's a night mode where you can default block the apps from midnight to 6AM to help you sleep.

还有上课模式，能把通知静音，时间是从早上八点到下午三点。

School mode, so notifications can be muted from 8AM to 3PM.

顺便说一句，这些功能大多不包括私信，这点挺有意思的。

By the way, a lot of these exclude DMs, which is an interesting sort of idea there.

我的意思是，显然私信在这些应用里非常普遍，可以说 Instagram 就是个带短视频功能的私信应用。

I mean, obviously, DMs are extremely common in all of these apps, and arguably, Instagram is a DMing app that has reels.

每过十五分钟就会弹出屏幕使用时间提示，提醒你又在 app 上待了十五分钟，这挺有用的。

There are screen time prompts every fifteen minutes to let you know you've been on the app for another fifteen minutes, which is helpful.

算法推荐流控制。

Algorithmic feed control.

现在青少年可以把非算法推荐流设为默认选项，家长也能调整这个默认设置。

Teens can now choose nonalgorithmic feed as their default, and parrots can adjust the default.

这些功能我都想要。

I want all of these things.

这真的就像一份愿望清单，没错。

This is really like a wish list of Yes.

就是给那些觉得这些应用太让人上瘾的人准备的功能清单。

Of features for people who are like, these apps are too addictive.

我想稍微退一步说。

I I do wanna step back for a second.

所以各州对Meta的态度一直很强硬。

So the states had had gone very aggressive at Meta.

Nilay，我的问题是，你看着这份清单。

Nilay, my question is, you're looking at this list.

这场官司谁赢了？

Who won this trial?

对吧？

Right?

不是这个审判。

Not or not this trial.

在这次和解中，谁占了上风？

In this settlement, who comes out ahead?

这取决于你觉得谁得到了什么。

It depends on who you think is getting what.

对。

Mhmm.

从很实际的角度来说。

Like, in a very real way.

这份清单上的规定，如果各州通过立法去争取，很可能在法庭上会输。

This is a list of regulations that if the states had passed laws to get, they probably would lose in court.

对。

Mhmm.

因为其中很多直接涉及第一修正案，而且没有大量的判例或学术研究能克服这些第一修正案的问题。

Because a lot of these implicate the First Amendment very directly, and there's not some great body of precedent or academic research that would overcome the First Amendment problems with this.

这些都是言论监管的规定。

These are speech regulations.

州政府说，你每天只能在Facebook上发言两小时。

You can only speak on Facebook for two hours a day, says the state.

这明摆着就是言论监管。

Straightforwardly a speech regulation.

直接涉及第一修正案。

Straightforwardly implicates the First Amendment.

所以如果你是州监管者，你会想，看看这个伤害我们青少年的巨大成瘾平台。

So if you're the state regulator and you're like, look at this big addictive platform that's hurting our teens.

我们怎么才能让马克·扎克伯格对此采取行动呢？

How do we get Mark Zuckerberg to do anything about it?

你已经赢了。

You've won.

对。

Mhmm.

因为他们已经同意了这些限制，如果他们当初跟你对着干，他们可能就赢了。

Because they have agreed to the limitations that if they had fought you on, they might have won.

而且事实上，他们几乎肯定会赢点什么。

And in fact, almost certainly would have won something.

对吧？

Right?

这本来会是一场长达十年的拉锯战，会打到最高法院，我们会有50期Vergecast节目讨论青少年夜间模式是否涉及第一修正案。

That this would have been a ten year battle that would have gone to the Supreme Court, and we would have had 50 episodes of the Vergecast about whether night mode implicates the first amendment for teenagers.

你对这件事可以有很多不同的看法。

You could feel a lot of different ways about that.

所以从这个很窄的角度看，各州确实赢了，因为他们达成了一系列监管措施，可能有助于青少年减少对这个平台的沉迷，而如果他们真的立法，Meta把他们告上法庭，他们可能不会像现在这样干净利落地达到目的。

So in that very narrow view, the states have won here because they've accomplished a series of regulations that might help teens be less addicted to this one platform in a way that if they had literally passed a law and Meta had taken them to court, they might not have gotten as cleanly and easily as they have gotten here.

我觉得很多研究平台审核和监管的人看到这个，都会说，哎呀，Meta这次简直是大获全胜。

I think a lot of people who spend time thinking about platform moderation and regulation are looking at this and saying, oh, Meta just ran away with this.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，Meta 把那些州给忽悠了，因为判决里的钱要分十年才付清。

Like, Meta just hoodwinked these states because the money part of the judgment only pays out over ten years.

十年。

Ten years.

而且这十年里，实际上只有70%的钱会分到。

Only in 70% of it actually gets distributed over those ten years.

所以，那大概就是十年一百亿美元。

So that's, like, $10,000,000,000 over ten years.

剩下的30%只有在TikTok和YouTube同意完全相同的限制时才会发放，这简直太离谱了。

And the last 30% only gets distributed if TikTok and YouTube agree to the exact same restrictions, which is bananas.

因为Meta有一万个理由不想让TikTok和YouTube同意这些限制，因为如果TikTok不同意，他们就能省下这笔钱。

Because who Meta has every incentive in the world to keep TikTok and YouTube from agreeing to this because they'll save money if TikTok doesn't agree to this.

但他们也同意投放广告来支持这些规定，而且他们大张旗鼓地认可这些是青少年安全方面的黄金标准，其他所有平台都得照着来。

But they've also agreed to run an ad campaign agreeing to this, and they've given a huge, like, sign off on these are the gold standard teen safety regulations that all of the other platforms have to contend with.

不管你是否担心州政府对平台施加言论限制会涉及第一修正案的问题，这都是一团乱麻。

Whether or not you are worried about the First Amendment implications of the state's imposing speech regulations on these platforms, this is a big swirl.

如果你是家长，你肯定在关注这个。

If you're a parent, you are looking at this.

如果你像我一样，父母是沉迷于WhatsApp的老年人，你会想，哦，我能给WhatsApp也弄个这个吗？

If you have, like me, your parents are senior citizens who are addicted to WhatsApp, you're like, oh, can I get this for WhatsApp?

那太好了。

That'd be great.

这里面有很多东西表面上看起来又好又聪明。

There's a lot of this that on its face is good and smart.

这些都是我们都想要的。

It's the stuff we all want.

比如，我们可以看到这会打破那种让人上瘾的互动循环。

Like, we can see that this will disrupt the engagement cycle.

这会破坏那种围绕让平台更上瘾、充满愤怒引战内容而建立的商业模式，诸如此类。

This will disrupt the business model built around making the platforms more addictive, making them full of rage bait, all that stuff.

这会打破这一切。

This will disrupt that.

这会打乱Meta面向年轻人的广告收入，因为他们会减少使用这个平台。

This will disrupt Meta's ad revenue for young people because they're gonna be using the platform less.

但这里面还藏着一堆监管措施，我不确定各州自己会不会全都想到，而Facebook现在要把这些强加给其他平台。

But hidden in here is a bunch of regulations that I don't know if the states would have gotten all on their own that Facebook is now going to impose on the other platforms.

我觉得这挺疯狂的。

And I think that's pretty wild.

所以从这个角度看，我觉得Meta有点像是在逃避这个问题。

So I I think from that perspective, Meta has kinda run away from this.

他们可以说是忽悠了各州，让他们在整个互联网上大规模推行年龄验证。

They've been, like, hoodwinked The States into age verification at scale across the Internet.

他们忽悠各州去找TikTok、YouTube、Snap这些平台，说，嘿。

They've hoodwinked The States into going to TikTok and YouTube and whoever else and Snap and saying, hey.

如果你们不自愿实施这些可能涉及言论问题的限制，我们就会提起诉讼，跟法官说，Facebook都这么和解了，我们会把你们缠得死死的，或者你们就做年龄验证，不管你们同不同意。

If you don't voluntarily impose these restrictions that may or may not have speech problems associated with them, we'll bring a lawsuit, and we'll say to the judge, well, Facebook settled this way, and we'll tie you up in knots for it, or you could just do age verification, whether or you agree with it.

所以从这个角度看，你知道，我关注的那些政策人士都有点懵，心想，什么？

So on that perspective, you know, all of the policy people that I I pay attention to are kinda like, what?

别这么做。

Don't do that.

对。

Yeah.

所以，

So,

我的意思是，这里确实有一些来回的争论。

I mean, there's there's some real back and forth here.

我觉得你提到这个很有意思，但Meta正在《纽约时报》和《华盛顿邮报》上投放整版广告，怂恿TikTok和YouTube采纳这些完全相同的规则。

I I think it's very funny you mentioned it, but Meta is running these full page ads in the New York Times and the Washington Post egging on TikTok and YouTube to adopt these exact same rules.

我很好奇，这两个平台有没有任何理由会自愿同意这些？

And I I'm curious, is is there any reason either of these platforms would voluntarily agree to any of this?

对吧？

Right?

在我看来，答案是否定的，这也是为什么Facebook没有这么做。

It seems to me the answer is no, which is why Facebook did not.

对吧？

Right?

他们基本上是被美国每个州起诉了之后才行动的。

Like, they they waited until they were sued by basically every state in The US.

是的。

Yeah.

我不觉得

I don't

除了博取好感之外还有什么理由，但这跟他们从中赚到的钱相比根本不算什么。

see a reason other than garnering goodwill, but it's not enough for the amount of money that they're making from all of these things.

而且我不觉得有人会相信Meta是站在正义的立场上。

And I'm not sure that anybody's going to buy that Meta is coming from, like, a righteous position here.

不会吗？

No?

不会。

No.

不是。

No.

不对。

No.

他们

They

输掉的就是这个。

lose were this.

这件事最奇怪的地方在于，你知道的，亚当·莫塞里前几天出庭作证了，那场面简直太惨烈了。

The the weird thing about this is, you know, Adam Messeri was on the on the stand a few days ago, and it was brutal.

对。

Yeah.

因为他当时正在回应那些文件，而文件上明明白白写着：别把这份数据给亚当看。

Because he's reacting to documents that literally say, don't show this data to Adam.

没错。

No.

这会给我们带来诉讼风险。

It will create litigation risk for us.

他就得说一些像‘我希望我的团队对我坦诚，但有时候他们因为某些原因做不到’这样的话。

And he would have to say things like, well, I want my team to be honest with me, but sometimes sometimes they can't be because of this.

然后他就看着律师。

And he's, like, looking at the lawyer.

他们陷入了一个非常复杂的困境，他们自己研究危害是什么以及如何应对的结果，反而被用来对付他们。

Like, they were stuck in a very complicated trap where their own research into what the harms actually were and how to combat them was being used against them Mhmm.

用来证明他们知道有危害，却没有采取足够的行动。

To show that they knew there were harms and they weren't doing enough.

所以，扎克伯格的回应是，我们应该停止这项研究。

And so, you know, Zuck's response to this was we should stop doing this research.

每个平台的回应都是，我们应该停止这项研究。

Every platform's response to this is we should stop doing this research.

是的。

Yeah.

因为如果你发现了坏事正在发生，那你就得为没有尽力阻止它而承担责任。

Because if you create the knowledge that something bad is happening, then you have created the liability that you didn't do enough to stop it.

这种激励机制非常糟糕。

This is a very bad set of incentives.

而且，要阻止这些问题，就得对平台上人们的交流施加控制，作为私营公司，你确实可以这么做。

On top of that, you're you're getting well, the way to stop it is to impose controls on how people communicate on your platform, which you as the private company can do.

但你可能觉得政府不应该强制要求这些。

But maybe you think that the government should not be able to mandate.

在这个国家，政府通常不能强制要求这些。

In this country, the government usually can't mandate that stuff.

世界上的其他国家，情况就大不相同了。

Other countries around the world, very different.

但在美国，第一修正案通常禁止政府强制要求这些。

But in this country, the First Amendment usually pro prohibits the government from mandating that stuff.

最后你就陷入这种境地：你可以向政府让步所有这些，同时通过说“我们要让全国每个参与此事的州检察长都有巨大的动力，数十亿美元的金钱激励，去惩罚谷歌，除非他们同意这些规则，去惩罚TikTok，除非他们同意这些规则”来削弱你的竞争对手。

And you end up in this place where, oh, you can concede to the government all of these things, and you can neuter your competitors who get to do those things by saying, oh, we're gonna we're gonna make it so every attorney general in the country who participate in this can now run around with a huge incentive, monetary billions of dollar incentive to punish Google unless they agree to these rules, to punish TikTok unless they agree to these rules.

这确实挺狠的，你知道吗，挺厉害的。

And that is pretty you know, it's like it's pretty sharky.

这可能是正确的做法。

It might be the right outcome.

我不知道答案，因为我是家长，我害怕我的孩子拿到带社交媒体的手机的那一天。

I I I don't know that answer because I am a parent, and I dread the day my children get phones with social media on them.

我看到的是每天两小时的使用时间、夜间模式、学校模式和算法信息流控制。

And I'm looking at two hour daily time in night mode and school mode and algorithmic feed control.

我就想，这些正是我想要的。

I'm like, oh, these are the things that I want.

对。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

如果你不把这些功能内置到软件里，我光靠管教根本不够，除非我对孩子进行严密的监控，才能阻止他们做这些事。

If you don't build them into the software, I can't parent enough unless I impose draconian surveillance on my children to make them stop doing these things.

嗯，这确实很有意思。

Well, it's very interesting.

你看，这些功能都是我们大家都认为能让应用不那么让人上瘾的。

Like, the these are these are all features that we we all believe we think that these will make the app less addictive.

对吧？

Right?

比如，视频没有自动播放。

Like, there's no autoplay on video.

对吧？

Right?

你可以选择非算法推荐的动态。

That you can choose a a non algorithmic feed.

我们都有这种信念，觉得这些东西能减少使用时间。

We all kind of just have this this belief that these things will reduce usage.

我觉得这可能是真的。

I think it's probably true.

但这可能是我们第一次大规模验证这个说法，这是一个非常重要但也很关键的假设。

But this is probably the the first time we're going to find out at scale if that is true, which is a very big but important if.

对吧？

Right?

如果这些功能不起作用，那就只能靠时间限制了。

Like, if these things don't work, then it's just the time limit.

就是两小时后强制下线，这时间其实还挺长的。

It's just we're cutting you off after two hours, which is still a lot

确实。

of time.

另外还有一个问题，这里提到他们必须加强年龄验证，我觉得这个话题我们已经讨论过无数次了。

And the other question becomes, as part of this here, it says that they have to do better age verification, which I feel like we've been through a 100 times.

而且青少年很擅长绕过年龄验证。

And teens are very good at getting around the age verification things.

Meta可以说他们在采用更严格的年龄验证系统。

And Meta can say we're doing more intense age verification systems.

我们会利用已有的更多数据来实际追踪你的年龄、你在其他应用上的时间等等。

We're using more of the data that we have to actually track how old you are and all this stuff and your time on other apps, etcetera.

但人们还是能找到办法绕过这些。

But people are still going to get around them.

哦，但这些都已经包含在规则里了。

Oh, but they're that's built into this.

他们必须使用的年龄验证系统。

The age verification systems they have to use.

Meta 在这里有一个选择，他们可以使用所谓的、经过认证的第三方验证服务。

Meta has a choice here where they can use in a, quote, like, accredited third party verification service.

表面上的想法是，为这些第三方验证服务创造一个市场，或者他们也可以自己开发。

And the ostensibly, the idea there is to create a market for these third party verification services, or they can build their own.

而且这条规则里有一些可接受的容错范围。

And there are some acceptable levels of tolerance in that rule.

我觉得是10%。

And I think it's 10%.

所以他们可以有10%的误差率，这是可以接受的。

So they they can have a 10% error rate, and that is acceptable.

而且我觉得不同年龄段的情况不一样。

And I think it's different per in in the different age ranges.

所以这里面是留了一些容错空间的。

So there's a little bit of tolerance built into this.

是不是就像17岁的孩子，你觉得他们比成年人更容易伪造身份证？

It's like the 17 year olds, you expect more of them to be able to fake than our their ID?

对。

Yeah.

这里面有提到，比如如果我们检测到你是个真正的孩子，我们就需要更宽容一些。

There there's, like, something in here where it's like, if we detect that you're an actual child, we're we need to be more tolerant of that.

我们也明白技术不是完美的，他们会想办法绕过它。

There's some amount of we understand the technology is not perfect, and they will try to defeat it.

所以我们会允许一定的误差率。

So we will allow for some error rate.

但你真正得到的，是所有年龄验证都一样的，就是你必须告诉一个大型集中式服务提供商你的政府姓名。

But what you're really getting, and this is true in all age verification, is you have to tell a big centralized service provider what your government name is.

你必须确认自己的身份，即使你是成年人，因为没有办法只对小孩进行验证。

You have to identify yourself even if you're an adult because there's no way to only do it for kids.

而这显然给不受这些规定约束的成年人带来了巨大负担，Meta 就这么硬推过去了。

And that, right, that obviously creates a huge burden on adults who are not subject to these regulations, and Meta just horsepower it through.

对吧？

Right?

而且，挺好的。

And, like, great.

我们都同意这是件好事。

Like, we all agree that this is a good thing.

这个问题已经多次上诉到最高法院，反对的理由非常真实，让这个国家的成年人每次想做什么都要向互联网提交政府规定的身份证明，这实际上是个巨大的负担。

This has been up and down to the Supreme Court, and the arguments against it are super real, which is making adults in this country submit government mandated identification to the Internet every time they wanna do anything is actually a huge burden.

这实际上是对你的言论和自由的另一种限制。

It's actually another restriction on on your speech and your liberty.

现在就是这样了。

And here we are.

如果各州只是通过这项法律，可能因为负担太重而无法实现，但因为他们屈服了，所以成功了。

Maybe the states couldn't have gotten it if they just passed this law because of that burden, but they got it because Meta caved.

而且还有动力让YouTube和TikTok也这么做。

And there is an incentive to get YouTube and TikTok to do it too.

这里面还有一些别的因素。

And there's some piece of this.

再说，当你问谁赢了谁输了，哎呀，这真是众说纷纭，方向各异。

Like, again, when you say who won and who lost, boy, does that cut in 50 different directions.

对。

Yeah.

而且情况变得更复杂了。

And and it gets messier.

比如，各州的任务还没完成。

Like, the state's job is not done.