3 in 15: The Future of Measurement

恭喜你。

Congratulations.

你正在收听全球最有效的广告活动。

You're listening to The most effective advertising campaign in the world.

没错。

That's right.

这个针对广告效果大师的推广活动，比世界上任何其他广告都更有效，因为它不仅吸引广告和营销从业者来参加我们的课程，这些人还会进一步提升他们所服务品牌的商业表现，为所在企业增加数百万美元的价值——这些企业有的规模很小，有的则极其庞大。

This campaign for the master of advertising effectiveness is more effective than any other ad campaign in the world because it doesn't just get advertising and marketing people to take our program, but those people then go on to improve the commercial results for the brands they work on, adding millions of dollars of value to their organizations, which are sometimes small and sometimes absolutely massive.

当你把所有这些价值加总起来，再除以我们为这个活动投入的、经过精确计算却依然克制的费用时，我们的投资回报率接近一比无限大。

And when you add all of that value up and divide it by the perfectly calculated yet modest amount we spend on this campaign, our return on investment is one to almost infinity.

所以，和我一起加入吧。

So join me and Walk.

成为广告效果大师，参与全球最有效的广告活动。

Become a master of advertising effectiveness and be part of The most effective advertising campaign in the world.

立即访问 mae.academy。

Go immediately to mae.academy.

那就是 mae.academy。

That's mae.academy.

欢迎收听 WARC 播客。

Welcome to the WARC podcast.

我是大卫·蒂尔特曼，今天我们要聊的是效果评估。

My name is David Tiltman, and today we are talking about measurement.

准确地说，我们要讨论的是效果评估的未来。

In fact, we'll talk about the future of measurement.

这正是我们刚刚发布的报告的主题，属于 WARC 战略服务的一部分。

That's the name of a report we've just released, as part of, the WARC strategy, service.

这是一档‘15分钟讲透三个重点’的播客。

Now this is a three in 15 podcast.

所以我们会为你提炼出报告里的三大核心观点。

So what we're gonna be doing is bringing you three big themes from the report.

为此，我们请来了报告的主笔保罗·斯廷格，他是研究与洞察部门的主编。

And to help us with that, we have, we have the person who put the reports together, Paul Stringer, managing editor for research and insights.

所以，保罗，我们直接切入正题吧。

So, Paul, let's get straight into it.

我们把这个报告命名为‘测量的未来’。

We we've called this the future of measurement.

这份报告的背景是什么？

What's what's the background to this report?

我们为什么特别选择关注测量这个问题？

Why have we why have we decided to look at look at measurement in particular?

嗨，大卫。

Hi, David.

我觉得我们特别关注测量，是因为全球在广告上的投入实在太大了。

Well, I think the reason why we're looking at measurement in particular is we know that there is a huge amount of money spent on advertising globally.

根据我们最新的预测，2022年广告支出达到了8810亿美元，到2025年将突破1万亿美元。

According to our latest forecasts, about 881,000,000,000 was spent in 2022, and that's gonna reach 1,000,000,000,000 by 2025.

但尽管投入了这么多钱，很多品牌还是很难回答一些最基本的问题：哪些有效，哪些无效，为什么？

But for all of the money spent on advertising, what we find is that many brands are still struggling to answer some quite basic questions about what worked, what didn't, and why.

而这很大程度上是因为当前测量方式存在诸多漏洞和问题。

And a lot of that has to do with current gaps and issues around measurement.

人们对现有测量体系的不满由来已久。

And some of those frustrations with the current system of measurement are quite deep rooted.

目前缺乏一个统一的解决方案，来统筹规划、优化和跨渠道、跨平台衡量营销活动。

There's a real lack of a unified solution for trying to plan, optimize and measure activity across different channels and platforms.

因此，测量工作往往还是各自为政，孤立进行。

And as a result of that, measurement is often still conducted in silos.

营销人员试图整合各种数据和指标，但最终呈现的营销效果图景依然不完整、不准确。

Marketers are trying to bring together various data and metrics and delivering ultimately a quite imperfect and incomplete picture of marketing performance.

是的。

Yeah.

这真是个庞大的话题，我们经常回头来讨论它。

It's a really it's a huge topic and one, you know, we we routinely come back to.

但正如你所说，现在确实是重新审视这个问题的好时机。

But I think it's a really good moment to be looking at it as you say.

这些问题不只是根深蒂固，关键是现在感觉一切都在变。

It's it's not just that these issues are deep rooted, it's that things feel like they're changing.

市场上不断冒出新方法、新思路，来重新思考怎么衡量效果。

You know, we're getting new techniques in the market, new ideas into how how to measure.

那你打算从哪儿开始呢？

So so what are you gonna start with?

我想先聊聊营销组合模型——也就是计量经济学的复兴。

I'm gonna start by talking about the renaissance of marketing mix modelling aka or econometrics.

最好先简单介绍一下，这其实是一套统计方法，营销人员用它来分析营销投入对销量、销售额或利润等关键业务指标的影响。

I think it's probably wise to just begin with an overview of what actually is which is a toolbox of statistical methods that are used by marketers to understand the impact of their marketing investments against key business metrics like volume, sales or profits.

这其实是一种已经存在了几十年的衡量手段，一直被营销人员看重，因为它能评估线上线下所有媒体的效果，还能展现广告的长期影响。

And it's actually a measurement technique that's existed for decades and it's been valued by marketers for its ability to evaluate the impact of all media both online and offline and demonstrate the long term effects of advertising as well.

它还能衡量价格和促销活动的影响，这是其他衡量方法做不到的。

It can it's also capable of measuring the impact of price and promotions, which other measurement techniques aren't able to do.

更重要的是，它能区分出广告带来的额外销量，也就是过滤掉那些本来就会发生的销售。

And perhaps most critically, it's able to show the impact of advertising on incremental sales, I e, is able to filter out sales that might have happened anyway.

所以它能直接体现出广告对销量的推动作用。

So it's able to show directly the impact of advertising on sales.

但哪怕它有这么多出色的优点，这么多年来，它还是落下了个操作繁琐、成本高昂的名声。

But despite all of these excellent benefits, over the years, it's also developed a reputation for being quite unwieldy and expensive.

而且这套方法搭建起来要花很久，导入数据也很耗时间，从完成前期准备到真正拿到模型分析结果，中间还要隔好长一段时间。

And it takes a long time to set up, a long time to ingest the data, and there can be a significant lag time between doing all of that and actually getting the results of your modelling.

这个过程可能要半年甚至一年才能出结果，等结果出来的时候， marketers 往往都已经跟进别的项目了。

That can take six months or a year to arrive by which time marketers have often kind of moved on.

大家总在追着下一个新趋势走。

They're thinking about the next thing.

也正因为这个原因，根据我们的研究，目前有六成品牌都还没用到这个工具。

And I think it's for that reason that around six out of 10 brands, according to our research, don't actually use at the moment.

但即便如此，大家对它的态度好像开始转变了。

Nonetheless, it seems that attitudes towards are beginning to shift.

对。

Yeah.

这确实是个非常好的观点。

That's a really it's a really good point.

目前市场上对计量经济学，或者相关的术语，讨论特别多。

There's a lot of talk about or or econometrics, the related term, in the market at the moment.

我知道背后有好几方面的原因，但我觉得有必要先说明一下，这些方法通常被描述为与归因建模完全相反——归因建模速度快、简单，有时甚至简单得有点过头。

And I know there's a few thing there's a few reasons for this, but I think it's just useful to sort of say upfront that these techniques are often often sort of described as almost like the opposite of attribution modelling where which is very quick and sort of simple, sometimes susceptively simple.

而另一类方法则更全面、更深入、更细致，但耗时很长，就像你刚才说的，操作起来也很麻烦。

But you have sort of one set of techniques which is if you like more holistic, more, you know, more in-depth and granular, but takes a long time and as you say can be quite unwieldy.

另一类方法能快速给出结果，但在衡量你营销投入的真实效果时，准确性却未必高。

And then you have another set of techniques that gives you a very quick read on things, but isn't necessarily all that all that accurate in terms of telling you the true impact of your of your marketing investment.

所以市场上普遍认为，计量经济学和归因建模这两类方法是截然不同的两个方向。

So guess we've sort of got this view in the market that you've got econometrics on one side and attribution modelling and that sort thing on the other side.

不过现在讨论的方向开始转变了，你能不能谈谈，在整理这份报告时，你们发现了什么？

But the discussion is starting to shift, so why don't why don't you talk a little bit about what you found when you're putting the report together?

当然可以。

Sure.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到的这些差异确实很关键，因为目前关于所谓‘回归’的讨论，主要就集中在这些地方。

And you're you're exactly right to highlight those differences between and attribution because in fact that's where we're seeing a lot of the conversation taking place around so called comeback.

要理解为什么会出现这种复兴，首先得明白，新的隐私法规正在逐步实施，这对归因模型造成了相当大的冲击。

I I think the first place to start by understanding why there is this renaissance is the fact that there are new privacy laws and restrictions that are coming into play and this is really having quite a damaging impact on attribution specifically.

归因模型通常依赖第三方Cookie等个人标识符，来追踪用户在网上的行为，从而向广告主反映不同营销触点对用户达成特定目标的贡献。

Attribution typically depends on individual identifiers like third party cookies to track user activity across the web, to signal to advertisers the contribution of different media touch points on a user's path towards a specific action.

隐私问题确实是削弱归因效果的一个重要因素。

Now privacy is one issue that is kind of damaging and blunting the impact of attribution.

但除此之外，人们对归因模型的准确性也越来越有疑虑。

But on top of that, there's also increasingly been questions around the accuracy of attribution modelling.

像莱斯·伯内特、格蕾丝·凯特博士这样的行业权威，就多次指出，归因模型常常高估了营销的短期直接效果，同时低估了长期的间接影响。

Thought leaders like Les Burnett, doctor Grace Kite have been particularly vocal in this area, calling out attribution for often overestimating the short term direct effects of marketing and also underplaying the longer term indirect effects of marketing.

因此，归因结果往往会误导营销人员，让他们过度侧重搜索这类直接响应渠道，而忽视了真正推动品牌长期建设的渠道。

So attribution results can often distort the picture for marketers causing them to put more emphasis on direct response channels like search and neglect channels that drive longer term brand building.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

核心问题其实是长期和短期、品牌效应和效果营销之间的平衡。关键在于，我们该怎么准确衡量那些间接影响，以及短期直接效果。

It's it's this sort of long term, short term or brand versus performance issue that that that comes that that so one of the real issues here is how do you get a how do you get a good read on those indirect effects as well as a sort of short term direct impact.

过去六个月里有个有趣的现象：像谷歌和脸书这样的科技巨头，开始大力拥抱计量经济模型，似乎真的接受了这种思路。

Now it was interesting here and what's sort of fascinating over the last six months is the way some of the tech giants, I'm thinking like Google and Facebook, have really latched on to econometric modelling or that they seem to be sort of buying into this.

这跟刚才提到的隐私监管、第三方Cookie逐步淘汰，还有苹果在隐私方面的动作，是一回事吗？

And is this part of the same you know, you just talked about the sort of issue of privacy regulation of of potential cookie deprecation of Apple's moves in the privacy space.

这一切都是同一个大趋势的一部分吗？

Is this all part of the same picture?

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

你提到这一点确实很到位。

You're you're you're right to highlight that.

事实上，你可以认为，一些大型科技公司正在推动这些讨论，并主导了行业关于回归和归因重要性下降的议程。

I think, in in fact, you you could argue actually that some of the major tech play tech players are driving these conversations and generating a lot of the the the kind of industry agenda around making a comeback and attribution falling away slightly.

比如Meta公司，他们推出了自己的开源解决方案，叫Project Robin。

So when we look at companies like Meta, they have their own open source solution called Project Robin.

谷歌也有轻量级的方案，我们还看到亚马逊等其他公司也在开发专门的数据接口。

There's also Google with a lightweight And we're also seeing other players like Amazon develop specific data feeds for as well.

各大科技公司在这方面的动作非常多。

So there's lots of activity in that areas from the major tech players.

它们还资助了大量基于计量经济学的研究，用以证明广告的长期和短期投资回报。

And they're also funding quite a lot of the research that's, using econometrics as a basis for demonstrating the long and short term ROI of advertising as well.

Meta最近刚发布了一项研究，利用计量经济学方法分析广告的长期和短期投资回报。

So Meta relatively recently came out with a study exploring the long and short term ROI of advertising using econometrics.

他们还与埃森哲等公司合作，研究精细化数据的应用——我之前在《测量的未来》报告里也引用了这两份报告。

They've also partnered with companies like Accenture to look at use of granular data for and I referenced both of those reports actually in the Future of Measurement report as well.

所以这些头部科技企业之所以展开大量相关布局，核心都是为了满足广告主对隐私安全的衡量方案的需求。

So there's lots of lots of activities from those major tech players driven by this need to develop privacy safe measurement solutions for advertisers.

那现在这个领域实际发生了哪些变化呢？

And how is this actually changing?

你刚才提到计量经济学已经存在很多年了，但现在这个方法的应用场景和实际效果好像和以前不太一样了。

Because you say econometrics have been around for years, but it's starting to look and feel a bit different.

是这样吧？

And right?

没错。

Yeah.

这话说得太对了。

That's absolutely right.

我觉得这个领域里最让人振奋的发展，其实都是由技术进步推动的。

I mean, I think the probably the most exciting development in this area is being driven by advances in technology.

以前大家总抱怨这类分析出结果太慢，前期的搭建和数据导入流程要花好几个月的时间。

So what we're seeing, some of those kind of classic complaints of that it takes a long time to get the results, that the process for kind of setup and data ingestion can take months.

人工智能自动化大大提升了广告主可接收的模型数量和更新频率，现在理论上可以做到每季度、每周甚至每天都获得结果。

Well, AI automation is really increasing the number of models and cadence of updates that advertisers can receive, meaning that results can now theoretically be delivered on a quarterly, weekly or even a daily basis.

此外，建模中使用的数据也越来越精细，这使得我们能更精准地支持受众定位、投放渠道、广告文案和创意内容等战术决策。

On top of that, we've also got more and more granular data being used in modelling, which means increasingly can be used to support tactical decisions around audiences, placements, messaging, and creative as well.

所以，某种程度上，它的运作方式开始有点像归因建模了。

So in a kind of funny way, can behave a bit more like attribution modelling.

不过得提醒一下，这方面我们还处在早期阶段，距离成熟还有很长的路要走。

Although one note of caution there is, you know, we are quite early on in the road there, and there's still lots of progress and development to be made.

但不管怎样，目前计量经济学正处在一个非常令人兴奋的增长阶段。

But nonetheless, it's a really exciting growth area for econometrics at the moment.

对于那些过去没怎么关注过计量经济学的营销人员来说，他们需要了解些什么呢？

So for for sort of marketers who are who might not have spent too much time thinking about econometrics in the past, what what do they need to know?

当他们考虑这种新一代方法时，有哪些关键的权衡和注意事项呢？

What are the sort of trade offs that they need to to consider when looking at this this sort of next generation So,

确实，这里面有几个非常重要的权衡和需要考虑的因素。

I mean, there's a number of really important trade offs and considerations.

我们跟Analytic Partners的团队聊过。

And, we we spoke to the the team at Analytic Partners.

在这份报告中，我们咨询了他们，整理出一些关键考量，报告里有详细说明。

We consulted them with them, as part of this report to come up with some considerations which are detailed in the report.

所以这部分内容在报告的章节里，不过我现在先提几个重点。

So that's that's part of the chapter on But few things I would highlight now.

确实要考虑的方面很多。

I mean, lots of considerations.

其中一个重点就是复杂性。

One is definitely focused around complexity.

如果你是初创公司或者成长型企业的，目标相对简单，商业模式也不复杂，那可能现成的商业方案或者开源工具就足够用了。

You know, if you're a if you're a start up scale up business with perhaps slightly more straightforward objectives or a slightly more simple business model, then you might find that an off the shelf solution or more of an open source solution might be useful for your business.

像Meta、Google这些大公司，还有一些小玩家开发的新方案，成本更低、更容易上手，特别适合预算有限的小型广告主，也能享受到这些技术带来的好处。

One advantage of the some of the newer solutions that are being developed by the likes of Meta and Google as well as other kind of small players is that they tend to be lower cost, easier to access, so can be quite attractive if you're a small scale advertiser, an advertiser without a huge amount of budget but nonetheless wants access to some of those advantages that offers.

复杂性确实是个关键因素。

Complexities is definitely a factor.

另一点是考虑专业能力的问题。

The other thing is thinking about things like expertise.

如果你要研究更复杂的问题或假设，那就不可避免地需要更多专家来解决问题，用创造性的方式运用数据来达成目标。

So if you've got more sophisticated questions or hypotheses that you want to test, then inevitably you're going to need more human experts to of problem solve and use data in creative ways to deliver your results.

这可能意味着你需要在内部专业人才上投入更多，也可能需要与更专业的合作伙伴合作。

That might mean that you need to invest more in internal expertise but also maybe work with slightly more specialist partners as well.

我目前想强调的另一点是整合问题，这其实关系到两类方案：一类是轻量级的下一代解决方案，另一类是市场上更深入的专家型方案。

The only other one I would highlight right now is just around integration as well, which actually I I think speaks to both these more kind of lightweight next gen solutions and the slightly more in-depth specialist solutions that are on the marketplace right now.

我认为，广告主在选择不同方案时，最关键的是要考虑如何将它融入你的业务：你需要多少实施支持？内部需要什么样的培训？它如何融入业务规划？运营所需的专业能力是从哪里来的？你是有能力招聘和培养内部人才，还是更适合依赖外部合作伙伴？他们持续关注市场动态，不断投入研发，只为给广告主提供最优质的服务。

I think one of the most critical factors for any advertiser to consider when choosing between different solutions is thinking about actually how you're going to integrate this in your business, how much support you need with rolling out what kind of education is needed internally, how is it integrated into business planning, and where does that expertise come from to operate Is that expertise that you can afford to hire and upskill internally, or are you better off relying on external partners who, are constantly kind of keeping track of what's happening in the marketplace and investing in their own solutions to try and bring the the best kind of proposition they can back to advertisers?

需要考虑的因素还有很多，我再次强调，报告里对这些问题都有更详细的分析。

So lots of different things to consider and again what I'd emphasize is much more detail in the report on all of those questions.

明白了。

Okay.

还有两个主题要讲。

So what two more themes to cover.

我觉得这次讨论可能会超时十五分钟了，但咱们还是得把这几个主题讲完，毕竟都很重要。

I think this is gonna run over our theoretical fifteen minute, time limit, but let's let's make sure we cover off the themes because they're important.

接下来呢，保罗，报告里还有什么内容？

What's, what's next, Paul, from this report?

下一个主题是跨媒体效果评估。

So the next theme we have is all about cross media measurement.

为了先铺垫一下，我们在最近的媒体报告中提到，受众碎片化正成为营销人员越来越头疼的问题。

And just to kind of set this up a bit, so we highlighted in our recent feature of media report that audience fragmentation is a growing headache for marketers.

我们知道，传统电视的收视率还在持续下滑。

So we know that linear TV is continuing to show signs of decline.

观众现在分散在越来越多的设备、平台和渠道上，覆盖得更广但也更稀疏。

Audiences are spread broader and thinner across an ever increasing number of devices, platforms, channels.

这自然会对未来媒体的投放和效果评估方式产生重大影响。

And, of course, this has major implications for the ways in which media will be planned and measured in the future.

比如在投放策略上，专家们经常提到要以视频或音视频为单位来规划，因为现在的视频广告越来越需要整合多种渠道——比如点播视频、传统电视、智能电视、高端在线视频——才能实现理想的覆盖效果。

So in planning, for instance, you see experts talk a lot about planning at the video or AV, audio visual level, to account for the fact that now video campaigns, campaigns that use video increasingly require a combination of channels, be that video on demand, linear, connected TV, premium online video to achieve good coverage.

但随着策划人员推动更深度的整合，业界对统一的衡量标准来评估跨媒体效果的需求也越来越强烈。

But as planners push for greater integration, there is increasingly this clamor for common metrics to understand cross media impact.

尤其是在电视领域，传统的电视收视指标在点播时代已经不太适用了。

And this is particularly true for television where really the traditional metrics of television don't necessarily work in a world of video on demand.

随着点播收入占比不断上升，越来越多观众转向这些平台，对更精准、更统一的测量体系的需求也随之增长。

And as the percentage of revenues from video on demand grows and more and more audiences are migrating over to those platforms, so does the demand for more accurate and unified measurement systems.

是的。

Yeah.

这对营销人员来说真是个大麻烦，对吧？

This one's a huge headache for marketers, isn't it?

我们手头有些数据，能清楚说明这个问题有多普遍。

We've got we've got some data on this, haven't we, that that that shows just just how widespread this issue is?

没错。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

所以，Innovate公司针对这个问题做了一些有趣的研究，发现92%的品牌和广告代理专业人士认为，对线性电视、C端电视和数字视频的跨平台覆盖与效果进行统一评估非常重要。

So there was some interesting research done by Innovate into this issue who found that 92% of brand and agency professionals believe that a unified view of converged TV reach and performance across linear TV, CTV and digital digital video is important.

然而，目前只有不到一半的营销人员，大约45%，在各个视频渠道上使用一致的关键绩效指标。

However, just under half of marketers, about 45%, are using consistent KPIs across video channels at the moment.

另外一半的营销人员，要么在不同视频渠道使用不同的指标，要么正努力追求一致性，但还没能实现指标的统一。

Another half of marketers either use different metrics across video channels or are really striving for consistency but struggling to make metrics uniform at the moment.

那现在有什么变化呢？

So what's changing here?

我们能期待看到什么？

What what what can we expect to see?

因为这个问题不会自己消失。

Because this is not a problem that's gonna go away.

嗯，正如你所知，过去已经有很多尝试，试图开发跨媒体的测量方案。

Well, I mean, as you as you know, historically, there's been lots of attempts and efforts to try and develop cross media measurement solutions.

我觉得，现在我们正看到一些新的进展，应该会给广告主带来不少启发和期待。

I think, you know, we are seeing some further developments here that should provide some inspiration excitement for advertisers.

我觉得目前最活跃的领域是电视和视频的测量。

I think where we're seeing the most activity is around TV and video measurement.

在美国，尼尔森已经从基于面板的收视率转向了基于受众的曝光量。

So in The US, we've seen this shift from Nielsen from panel based ratings to audience based impressions.

理论上，采用曝光量后，现在更容易比较线性电视和数字媒体渠道的覆盖范围和频次，这有助于推动跨媒体测量。

In theory, the adoption of impressions means it's now easier to compare reach and frequency across linear and digital media channels, which helps facilitate cross media measurement.

不仅在美国，欧洲等地也在推进，比如天空电视台、第四频道和ITV正在合作开发一个叫Sea Flight的工具，用于追踪线性电视和广播视频点播广告的曝光效果。

And not only in The US, but in other parts, of the globe, in Europe, for example, we're seeing, broadcasters like Sky channel four ITV collaborating on a tool called Sea Flight that reports on impacts and impressions across linear and broadcaster video on demand campaigns.

还有很多人熟悉的Origin项目。

And then there's also Project Origin, which many listeners will be familiar with.

这是英国广告主主导的一项倡议，依托世界广告主联合会的跨媒体框架，计划在2024年上线其跨媒体测量平台。

It's a UK based advertiser led initiative that's operating under the WFA's cross media framework, and it's due to go live with its cross media measurement platform in 2024.

是的。

Yeah.

正如你所说，行业协会和电视台也在开展大量研究。

And it's as you said, there's a lot of research also going on at the the level of trade body or broadcasters too.

这份报告内容挺细的，但这些研究到底得出了哪些关键结论呢？

So, I mean, you know, know there's a lot of detail in the report, but what are the findings that that are coming out of of these studies?

有没有什么特别值得提一提的发现？

Are there any anything we is there anything we can highlight?

是的。

Yeah.

我特别想引用一下某个跨媒体测量平台的研究成果，幸运的是，Sea Flight 最近做了一项研究，就是我之前提到的 Sky、Channel 4 和 ITV 合作的项目。

Well, I mean, I was really keen to try and include some research from one of the cross media measurement platforms and fortunately, there was a relatively recent piece of research done by Sea Flight, which is this collaboration I mentioned between the broadcasters Sky Channel four and ITV.

他们还和几家 WPP 旗下的广告公司合作，分析了视频在整体媒体投放中的作用。

And there was a study done in partnership with several WPP agencies looking at the role of video in the media mix.

这项研究里有不少非常有意思的发现。

Lots of really, really interesting findings within that research.

我挑两个重点说说。

I'll highlight a couple.

首先，他们发现，哪怕预算不高，把视频渠道多样化布局，依然是提升投资回报率的最佳策略。

I mean, first of all, what they found is that even at low spends, a diversified approach to video is the best strategy for maximizing ROI.

比如，BVOD和电视广告结合使用，ROI比单用电视广告高出多达10%。

So for example, a combination of BVOD and TV can generate up to 10% higher ROI than TV alone.

其次，研究发现，电视平台的点播视频是最稳定的投放渠道，而社交媒体的表现最不稳定。

And then the second one is that broadcaster video on demand was also discovered to be the most consistent channel based on results with social media being the least consistent.

我得强调一下，电视平台的点播视频是最稳定的视频渠道。

I should highlight that the most consistent video channel.

它同时也是推动短期投资回报最高效的渠道。

And it was also found to be the most efficient driver of short term ROI as well.

不过很重要的是，和这项研究中分析的其他大多数视频渠道一样，BVOD的回报超过一半是在长期才实现的。

Although it's important to emphasize that like almost every other video channel analyzed as part of this research, more than 50% of the payback payback of BVOD came over the long term.

好的，保罗。

Alright, Paul.

我们现在进入最后一个主题了。

We're on our last theme now.

那第三个，也是最后一个主题，你都总结了哪些内容？

So so what have you what have you pulled out for the for the third and final topic?

好的。

Okay.

第三个也是最后一个主题是零售媒体的成长烦恼。

So the third and final topic is around growing pains in retail media.

正如我们在《数字商业未来》报告中提到的，零售媒体现在已经不再是营销人员眼中的新兴渠道了。

So as we covered in our future of digital commerce report, retail media is no longer classed as an emerging channel for marketers.

事实上，它将在2023年成为许多品牌广告策略的核心组成部分。

And in fact, it's gonna form a key part of many brands advertising strategies in 2023.

它已经是全球第四大广告媒体。

It's already the fourth largest advertising media.

今年的总支出预计增长10%，将达到1210亿美元。

Total spend is forecasted to increase 10% and reach a 121,000,000,000 this year.

如果保持当前的发展趋势，到2025年，零售媒体对广告主的价值可能超过传统电视。

And that means that in theory, retail media could be more valuable to advertisers than linear TV by 2025 if it continues on this trajectory.

这种增长很大程度上是由美国的零售媒体网络推动的，比如亚马逊和克罗格，但如今欧洲和亚太地区的主要零售商也纷纷跟进，推出自己的零售媒体网络，通过广告来变现客户数据。

Now lots of this growth has been driven by retail media networks in The States, such as Amazon and Kroger, but of course, there's lots of major retailers now following suit in Europe and APAC as well, launching their own retail media networks to monetize their own customer data via advertising.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

零售媒体确实是过去几年行业里最大的话题之一。

Retail media is I mean, it's it's just been one of the big stories in the industry over the last couple of years.

我们在WARC上也多次讨论过这个话题。

I when we've covered it a lot on WARC, of course.

但我觉得更有趣的是，如何把它纳入效果衡量体系——也就是我们怎么看待零售媒体这个渠道或一组渠道，怎样在零售媒体、传统数字媒体，甚至其他传统媒体之间建立统一的评估标准。

I think what's interesting about it though is the bringing this into the world of measurement is is how how we look at retail media as a channel or a set of channels, I guess, how we sort of start putting uniform metrics across, you know, across both retail media and what you might call traditional digital media and indeed other types of traditional media.

那我们现在能学到些什么呢？

So what are we starting to learn here?

因为你把这一部分称为‘成长的阵痛’。

Because you called this this section growing pains.

所以，显然并不是一切都很顺利。

So so I guess it's not all going smoothly.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我觉得背后有几个原因。

And I think there's a couple of reasons for that.

首先，我想说的是这些零售媒体平台自身的能力。

I mean, the first thing I would say relates to the capabilities of these retail media networks themselves.

很多主要平台都已经内置了完整的效果追踪机制。

So lots of the the major networks have closed loop measurement baked into their propositions.

向广告主承诺将销售与营销效果直接挂钩，这确实很有吸引力。

So offering advertisers this promise of closing the loop between sales and marketing is a really exciting prospect.

但根据我们的研究，像默克尔这样的机构做的数据显示，有37%的营销人员目前无法在不同零售媒体平台之间比较效果，原因在于各平台缺乏透明度，指标和报告方式也不统一。

But what we find is based on the research, based on data conducted by the likes of Merkel, lots of marketers, 37% of marketers, saying that they're not able to actually compare performance at the moment across retail media networks because of a lack of transparency and standardization of metrics and reporting between different platforms.

所以

So

这还只是在零售媒体内部的情况。

And that's and that's within retail media.

我们说零售媒体是个统称，但实际上各个平台都有自己的一套指标和做法。

So so because we're we're talking about retail media as this catchall, but actually, there's lots of platforms that have their own metrics, their own ways of doing things.

问题不在于把零售媒体和其他渠道做比较。

And and the issue here isn't comparing retail media with other channels.

而是在于零售媒体内部不同平台之间的比较。

It's comparing platforms within retail media.

对吧？

Yeah?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

关键是，我们担心最后会陷入和现在一样的局面——各种渠道和平台都有各自的专有指标和方法，结果还是让广告主没法公平、一致地比较不同平台的表现。

And, you know, you're the fear is that we end up in a similar situation to what we have now, is ultimately lots and lots of channels and platforms all with their own proprietary metrics and methodologies and just duplicates the problem of advertisers being able to make equal, fair comparisons across lots of different channels and platforms within those specific channels as well.

所以现在这个局面确实挺乱的。

So it's it it is quite messy.

我觉得零售媒体领域有一点特别有意思，那就是它把营销和销售拉得非常近。

One of the things I think is really interesting in this retail media space is is the it it sort of brings marketing and sales very close.

你看，现在从部门职能的层面来看，这两块本来是分开的。

You know, they're we're we're sort of seeing these at a department of function level.

结果两边就开始起冲突了。

They start bashing heads.

但从效果衡量的角度来看，我们现在也遇到了一个问题。比如我们这期节目一开始就聊过计量经济学，还有那些我们本来会用来评估营销的长期价值、品牌影响力，或是间接效应的评估方法，现在都碰到了难题。

But from a measurement point of view, we've got an issue here as well, haven't we, in the the kinds of measures that we might think of you know, we talked econometrics at the start of the, of this episode, but the kind of things we might wanna look at to measure the long term or the brand impact or or the indirect effects of marketing.

零售媒体行业现在基本上还是以搜索、效果转化为主，习惯直接把广告和销售额挂钩，那我们要怎么把那些长期价值评估的方法引入这个领域呢？

How how do we sort of bring those into the retail media space, which, I mean, it's fair to say, is still largely driven by search, by performance, by making a direct link between a sale and a and an ad?

这两套思路要怎么融合到一起呢？

So how do these worlds start to come together?

对。

Yeah.

说得太对了。

That's absolutely right.

而且说实话，数据完全支持你的观点——大多数营销人员仍然把零售媒体看作是推动销售和转化的末端工具。

And I mean, you know, the data supports exactly what you're saying, which is that most marketers still view the role of retail media as a kind of bottom funnel sales and conversion driver.

这一点在ANA最近发布的关于品牌与零售媒体平台关系的报告中也清楚体现出来了。

That's evident in the ANA's recent report on the relationship between brands and retail media platforms.

但平台自身的功能设置也反映了这一点，据我们所知，几乎没有平台真正提供品牌广告的投放能力。

But it's also baked into the capabilities of the platforms themselves, which is very few to our knowledge actually offer advertisers the ability to do brand advertising.

这同样是个实实在在的难题。

So that's a real challenge as well.

就像我们之前多次强调的，在各种报告里都提到，品牌如果过度聚焦于末端转化，而忽视了培育未来需求、在漏斗上游建立用户需求，风险会很大。

And as we, you know, as we've labored the point, lots of times in different reporting, there is a real risk for brands that over focus on the lower funnel and don't pay attention to building future demand and focus on building demand with customers further up the funnel.

因此，营销人员在使用零售媒体平台时，面临几个关键挑战。

For that reason, marketers have a couple of really key challenges to solve with retail media platforms.

其中一个就是：如何在零售媒体平台内部真正建立起品牌。

One is to one is how to build brands within retail media platforms themselves.

正如我之前提到的，目前在这方面的能力确实还很有限。

As I mentioned, there's a kind of lack of capability there at the moment.

像亚马逊这样的平台，还有他们自己的Twitch和电视业务，确实存在。

You've got things like you've got things like Amazon, though, haven't you, with your own Twitch and and and TV.

我知道他们正在往这个方向推，但亚马逊显然是个例外。

So this I know they're pushing in that direction, but but I guess Amazon are the large exception to the rule, mate.

是的。

Yeah.

说得完全对。

Exactly right.

WARC 曾经和一家叫 Perpetua 的公司合作做过一项研究，分析了亚马逊的广告形式。

And we you know, WARC did some research with a company called Perpetua looking at Amazon advertising formats.

研究发现，某些广告形式其实确实能推动品牌建设的目标。

And what was found in that research is actually certain formats are capable of driving brand building objectives.

但在一定程度上，这取决于零售媒体网络能为广告主提供哪些广告资源。

But to some extent, it's dependent on the inventory offered by retail media networks to advertisers.

广告主要想做品牌建设，就得有这些广告位可用。

That inventory has to be there to enable advertisers to do the brand building work.

这确实是一个挑战。

So that's definitely one challenge.

另一个更关键的问题是，怎么把零售媒体这类封闭或半封闭平台的数据，和其他平台的数据打通，来理解不同广告形式之间的协同效应。

The other one I think is really pertinent is around linking the results from these kind of walled gardens, semi walled gardens of retail media with data from other platforms to begin to understand the synergies between different types of advertising.

比如说，线性电视广告如何带动亚马逊上的品牌搜索，或者广播广告如何推动实体店的销售。

So for example, how linear television might drive branded searches on Amazon or how radio might drive sales in brick and mortar stores.

我们报告里有一些由分析合作伙伴提供的有趣研究，显示所有渠道都有溢出效应，每个渠道都能对其他渠道产生影响，带动其他渠道的销售。

And we have some really interesting research in the report by analytic partners that shows all channels have a halo effect, I all channels are capable of driving, impacts within other channels as well and sales within other channels.

但说实话，我们在这一块还处在学习的初期阶段。

But ultimately, we are very much on kind of an early stage of learning journey with that.

要真正搞清楚零售媒体和其他渠道之间的协同作用，还有大量工作和研究要做。

And there is a lot more work and research to be done to really understand the synergistic effects between retail and other platforms, other channels.

是的。

Yeah.

就像那些经典的统计数据，说明电视广告对推动搜索行为有多重要，这两者是怎么相互配合的。

It's like that sort of those classic stats about how important TV activity is to to driving search search activity and and how those two work together.

正如你所说，我们离真正理解零售媒体平台与其他平台如何协同作用，还差得远呢。

As you say, it's still a long way to go before we know how different retail media platforms and channels might work alongside other platforms.

真有意思。

Fascinating.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢，保罗。

Thank you, Paul.

我顺便提一下，刚才提到的Perpetua公司，为了完全透明，它和WARC同属Essential集团下的子公司。

And I should just say, of course, that the company you just mentioned, Perpetua, the interest of full disclosure, is a sibling company with WARC as part of Essential.

我想我们今天就先到这里吧。

I think we'll leave it there for this week.

这份报告非常精彩，关于未来广告效果评估的内容，现在已经在WARC策略服务平台上线了。

It's a fascinating report, future measurement, now available on the WARC strategy service.

感谢保罗提出了这些非常重要的观点。

And thank you to Paul for, for for bringing those points, really important points.

我们原本预告的是一个半小时的节目。

We advertised it as a three and fifteen.

虽然超出了原定时间，但讨论的内容都非常关键。

We've gone a bit beyond that, but, but but some very important topics covered.

我们周四会回来，继续带来常规的‘Walk Talks’节目。

We'll be back on Thursday with our regular walk talks episode.

如果你喜欢今天的节目，欢迎在你常用的播客平台关注我们。

And if you like what you've heard, please do, follow us on your podcasting platform of choice.

如果你特别喜欢今天的内容，别忘了给我们留个评价。

And if you really like what you've heard, please do leave us a review.

我们下次再见。

Until next time.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.