Episode 498: Sam Greenwood’s Punt of the Day

好的。

One: Alright.

谢谢大家耐心听我说这些。

Well, thank you all for indulging me on that.

谢谢卡洛斯，你提的问题非常好。

Thank you, Carlos, for your very good questions.

我们接下来请萨姆·格林伍德聊聊。

Let's go talk to Sam Greenwood.

萨姆·格林伍德，欢迎回来。

Sam Greenwood, welcome back.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴能再回来。

Good to be back.

我本来想问你最近在忙什么。

I I started to say, what are you up to?

但我其实大概知道答案，因为我可是《每日彩池》的订阅用户。

But I I kind of know the answer to that because I'm subscriber to punt of the day.

所以我知道的大新闻就是，你第二个孩子要么快出生了，要么已经在家了，因此你不得不减少为《每日彩池》撰稿的频率。

And so I I guess the the big news that I'm aware of is you you have either a second child on the way or already with you, and so you've had to scale back how how often you're writing for punt of the day.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

我老婆怀孕挺久了，看着真不容易。

My wife is very pregnant, which does not seem fun.

而且，嗯，我们还剩几个星期吧，说不准。

And, yeah, we have a couple more oh, I don't know.

上次她被催产了，所以没经历那种电影里常见的——羊水破了，冲去医院的场面。

You know, she was induced the first time, so we didn't get, like, the, you know, cinematic, like, oh, water breaking, run to the hospital type thing.

不过说不定这次就在这期播客里发生了。

But maybe maybe maybe it'll happen on this podcast.

不过我们现在离医院还远，就算我把手机调成静音一小时，也不用担心会突然出事。

But we're far enough away right now where it's not like a thing will if I put my phone on silent for, like, an hour or so, we're not we're not that close.

对。

Yeah.

天啊，你刚让我想起我大概十三四岁时候的事。

Man, you you just gave me a memory from probably I must have been, like, 13 or 14.

我记得当时坐在客厅，我表姐推门进来，刚开口说了句话。

I remember sitting in my living room, and my cousin walked in the door, and she she walked in and she said something.

结果她话说到一半，突然停住了。

The next thing, she just, like, interrupted herself in the middle of her sentence.

她说：我的羊水破了。

Said, my water just broke.

那时候我根本不知道那是什么意思。

And I had no idea what that meant.

我们全都愣住了。

And we were like, wait.

你刚才尿裤子了？

Did you just pee on yourself?

我记得，天哪。

And and I remember, oh, man.

我完全把这事儿忘了。

I forgot all about that.

但你一提起来，我就想起来了，那种事偏偏发生在你最想不到的时候，这确实是我的童年记忆。

But, like, when you when you mentioned it, you'd like, you know, kinda happening at a time you don't you you least suspect that that was definitely a memory from my childhood.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没有。

No.

我是家里最小的孩子。

I've I've had no I was the last child born.

你懂的。

You know?

我没什么年轻的表兄弟姐妹之类的。

I don't have I don't have too many, like, younger cousins or anything like that.

在妻子生孩子之前，我根本没接触过小孩。

I have nothing no real experience until my wife gave birth.

你居然选择把家庭放在首位，而不是你那些忠实的日更订阅者。

And you've decided to prioritize your family over your loyal punt of the day subscribers.

是的。

Yeah.

没错，就是这样。

Exact exactly.

我依然特别喜欢这个博客。

Well, I am still enjoying the hell out of the blog.

今天早上我还跟伴侣说，这真是我唯一愿意花钱订阅的内容。

I I was just telling my partner this morning that I I feel like I I I mean, it's the only thing of that kind that I pay for.

总的来说，我对Substack挺反感的，但这次觉得实在错过太可惜了。

In general, I'm pretty like anti Substack, but I felt like this was just too good of a spot to pass up.

我每次读完，至少能收获一样东西，很多时候两样都有——要么笑一笑，要么得到个新见解，比如突然用一种全新的方式理解扑克里的某个概念。

And I feel like I pretty much always come away with at least one, but often both of these things, which is either a a chuckle or some insight where I'm like, oh, that's like a I'm I'm thinking about a poker concept in a in a new way.

所以我真的很感谢你。

So I I really appreciate that.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我能问你个问题吗？

Can I ask you a question?

你反感Substack，是因为它本身，还是因为你本来就讨厌付费新闻？觉得现在这类内容太多，一不留神就每个月花上一千块什么的。

Are you anti Substack because of Substack, or are you, like, sort of just anti paid news that do because you feel there's too many there's, this overflow of and then suddenly you find you paying, like, a thousand dollars a month or something.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我从来没花过每个月一千美元的那种钱，但我确实很谨慎，不会随便订阅什么服务。

I mean, I've I've never gotten close to the thousand dollar a month part, but I I am careful about what I what I sign up for.

不过我对这事儿了解不多，但我认识的一些人，以前在Substack上写东西，后来都停了，可能你比我知道得更清楚。

But I I I don't know a lot about this, but I know that some people that I respect, you know, they kind of stopped who who used to write for Substack stopped because maybe you know more about this than I do.

他们那儿有些账号，本质上就是靠纳粹内容赚钱的。

They they they had, like, some, like, monetized Nazi blogs, essentially.

结果平台却不愿意下架这些账号，也不肯停止从中获利。

Like and and they they sort of, like, refused to to to demonetize them or or to stop profiting from them.

是的。

Yeah.

这些问题确实存在。

Those are issues with hey.

你知道吗？

You know what?

肯定有人正在用Apple Podcasts或者Spotify听这个播客，而这一切，正是我们当下所处的世界的写照。

Like, I'm sure some people are listening to this podcast on, like, Apple Podcasts or on Spotify or whatever, and it's, that that took the world we're in right now.

确实很难不被卷入一些不干净的事情，但对我而言，Substack 仍然是最合适的平台。

We'll we'll it's very hard to not be implicated in some sort of dirtiness going on, but I found that Substack was, for my purpose, the the best platform.

是的。

Yeah.

我这么说并不是在针对你。

I I didn't intend that as a as a call out of you.

我只是想解释一下，我之前说‘我不’的时候，其实是想表达……

Just an explanation of what what I meant when I said, like, I'm not

不是的。

No.

不是的。

No.

我只是好奇，因为你用 Substack，我想知道为什么。我跟别人聊起这个时，最常见的反应就是：‘啊？那是什么？’ 得有好多人连 Substack 是干嘛的都不清楚。

I was just I was just curious because as somebody uses Substack, I am curious about why you know, the most common thing I get when I talk to people about about it, they go, oh, what like, I the number of people I've needed to explain even, like, people are like, this is what Substack is.

就是一个付费通讯。

It's a paid newsletter.

这是点击链接。

Here are the links to click.

但从整体来看，它还是个很小的运营，跟YouTube、Instagram这些大社交平台没法比。

Like, it's still in the grand scheme of things, a very small operation compared to, you know, whatever, like a YouTube or or Instagram or with the bigger social media sites.

不过你确实挺投入的。

It does seem like you've really taken to it, though.

看得出来你花了很多心思写，而且我觉得你是真喜欢写这个。

Like, it it seems like you put a lot of effort into into writing it, and I I get the sense that you enjoy writing it.

是的。

Yeah.

写东西挺有意思的，尤其是打扑克，特别是锦标赛，大多数时候都挺挫的，往往辛辛苦苦一天，最后啥也没捞着。

It's a fun muscle to, I mean, exercise, especially because playing poker, especially tournament poker, most days would be disappointing, and most days, you'll have nothing to show for it.

我觉得要是有人问我，嘿。

I think the idea that if somebody does to me, hey.

你今天干了啥？

What did you do today?

我可以这么说，看这里。

I can say, here.

这可是我今天散步的实实在在的证据。

Here was, like, here was a hard evidence of my, like, walk today.

你知道，这挺少见的。

You know, it's it's unusual.

我的意思是，你大概会说，瞧。

The I mean, I guess, you know, you could say, look.

这是那位经理展示的内容。

Here's whatever hold the manager showing.

我今天打了三千手扑克，但感觉完全不一样。

I played 3,000 hands of poker today, but it it doesn't feel the same way.

另外一点是，打扑克时你得有短时记忆。

And I think the other thing is poker you need to have a short tool memory as you're playing poker.

别老纠结于之前的牌局。

You don't wanna be dwelling over hands.

我觉得有个专注于琢磨、打磨和精进的项目真的很不错。

And I do think it's nice to have a project that kind of is about tinkering and polishing and sharpening.

而且这种项目能让你回头看看，哦，原来这就是我理解一手牌的突破口。

And something where you can go back and go, oh, this this is how I can unlock how I write about the hand.

这有点奇怪，比如我会跑一些从比赛中提取的模拟，给两位玩家都设八个下注选项，就看看会发生什么，诸如此类的事。

This is some weird like, I'm gonna run some, like, sim from the tour and where you give both players eight bet size options just to see what happens, you know, that sort of stuff.

我特别喜欢这一点，它让我们有机会掀开幕布，看看像你这样的顶尖玩家是怎么变强的。

I really like that it gives it gives us an opportunity to kinda, like, look behind the curtain and see how these high level players like yourself, how they got good.

我们谁都不是生下来就懂扑克的，但能像走进实验室一样，看看究竟需要付出什么样的努力才能达到这种水平。

Like, none of us were just, like, born with this poker skill right out of the womb, but being able to, like, you know, peek into the lab in a sense to see, like, okay.

这才是真正让人变厉害所需要做的工作。

This is the type of work it takes to to get this good.

没错。

Yeah.

我以前形容过这种现象，有一段时间，我觉得世界上最厉害的扑克玩家就是汤姆·多万。

The the metaphor I've used when talking about this, but there was a period of time where it seemed like the best poker player in the world to me was Tom Dwan.

你看他打牌，就会想，我根本不可能打得像他那样。

And you would watch him play poker, and you would go, well, I could never play like him.

我学不了他。

I I can't copy him.

这完全没什么直觉可言。

There's nothing sort of, like, intuitive about it.

我常拿这个打比方，就像看沙克打篮球——那时候我用这个比喻，是因为沙克确实在打篮球。

The analogy I use was like watching Shaq play basketball, which at the time I used the analogy Shaq was, you know, actually playing basketball.

我用这个比喻已经很久了。

That's how long I've been I've been using this for.

你想想，不管怎样，我也没七英尺高。

Well, you go, no matter what happens, I'm not seven feet tall.

我也没那么高大。

I'm not that big.

我也没那么强壮。

I'm not that strong.

我做不到。

I couldn't do it.

但你想想，比如史蒂夫·纳什，他本身也是个运动天才，对吧？

But, you know, if you look at, like, I don't know, like, Steve Nash, who is also an athletic freak in his own right and, like you know?

可我看着他，就觉得他就是个普通的加拿大人。

But I could look at him and go, well, you know, he's like a guy from Canada.

他看起来一点都不像那种超能打的运动怪才。

He doesn't look like some, like, super athletic freak.

也许我好好训练，拼尽全力，最后能变成像史蒂夫·纳什那样的水平。

Maybe if I got trained and did my best, I could end up looking like Steve Nash.

当我意识到打扑克也得是这种类型时，我觉得自己得像个‘小人物’才行。

And when I thought that's kind of what you need to be gonna poker, you kinda needed to be like a shack.

我后来想，我永远达不到那种境界。

Well, I went that I could never get to that level.

我或许能做个不错的中等赌注玩家，但永远不可能打到最高级别，因为我没有汤姆那种天赋。

I could be a good mid stakes player, but I can never get to the highest stakes because I don't have what someone like Tom appeared to have.

后来用了Solvables，情况就不一样了，原来真有一些工具，设计得特别适合我这种脑子，能帮我达到那个水平。

And then I then with Solvables, it became a a different game in terms of, like, oh, this is actually there are tools that are actually very well designed for, like, me and my brain that will allow me to get to that level.

我得小心点说，因为我确实觉得自己是个挺有直觉的扑克玩家。

Like, I've never I wanna be careful saying this because I do think I am a good intuitive poker player.

我不喜欢那种Solvables型职业选手的做法，比如有人一整天都没做过三次加注，他们一看到你加注，立马就认为你拿着A5同花，直接四加注全压。

I hate the thing with, like, solvery type pros where they're like, oh, they wouldn't even notice if, like, know, some guy who played hand who never three bet all day, three bet, they would sell four bet job ace five suited.

不是这样的。

No.

我觉得我确实是个有直觉的扑克玩家。

Like, I think I'm a good intuitive poker player.

我挺擅长识别模式的。

I understand pattern recognition.

打牌的时候，我能比较准确地判断对手的类型，也能注意到牌桌上的各种细节。

As I'm playing with people, I'm pretty good at profiling types of players and noticing things about the games and all of those sorts of things.

但我并不觉得自己在这一点上是世界顶尖的。

But I don't think I'm, like, the absolute best in the world at it.

我觉得自己算不上世界上最强的剥削型扑克玩家。

I don't think I'm the absolute best exploitive poker player in the world.

所以我觉得我确实具备这些能力。

So I think I have those skills.

你必须得有这些本事。

You need to have them.

我可能以前觉得像汤姆那样的人是顶尖高手，是因为他表现得实在太反常、太不可思议了。

I think part of the reason that I might have believed someone like Tom with the best of the world was because what he seemed seemed so alien and impossible to me.

然后我才想起来，你上一期的嘉宾。

And then when I found out, you know, I remember your last guest.

我不太确定时间线是不是记对了，但记得LuckyChewy在2020年2月到4月间，还在Full Tilt运营的时候，跟汤姆打过一对一。

I I'm not sure if I have this right chronologically based on the episode, but LuckyChewy was playing Tom heads up at February, April in, I don't know, when '20 when Full Tilt existed.

我当时觉得这太疯狂了。

And I thought that's crazy.

你干嘛要去跟世界上最强的人对打？

Why would you play the best guy in the world?

一对一单挑。

Heads up.

后来我和他聊的时候，我就想，哦，Chewy大概觉得自己比他强。

And I then talking to him, I was like, oh, like, Chewy just thought he was better than him.

说实话，他可能还真没说错。

And, honestly, he was probably right.

我觉得汤姆当时并不是世界最强的，因为那时候还有斯图尔特。

Like like, I have I I don't think Tom was the best in the world because Stewart at the time.

他确实对汤姆有种敬畏，但汤姆其实没那么神。

I think he had that awe, but he he wasn't.

然后我就意识到，哦，原来还有别的路子。

And then I was like, oh, this idea that, oh, there's another path.

等我后来接触到求解器这类工具，才真正看清了这条路，这让我特别受启发——原来世界上最强的玩家，他们身上那些特质，我也是可以学习和模仿的。

Oh, like and then once solvers and that sort of stuff kinda laid out that path for me, that was really nice because then I thought thought, oh, the best players in the world have traits that I think I can emulate.

你不觉得直觉这种东西，也是可以培养和学习的吗？

Do you not think of intuition as something that you can, like, emulate or or cultivate?

不是。

No.

我觉得经验多了确实可以培养，尤其是这样。

I I do think it's something you can, especially with experience.

但好像在直觉上的差距，跟知识上的差距比起来，弥补起来是有限的——这可能是我自己的偏见。

But it seems like there were limp there were this could be my own, again, my own bias here.

直觉上的缺口，跟知识缺口比起来，好像真的很难靠后天弥补。

It seems like there's limits to how much you can sorta, like, make up for in, like, an intuition gap compared to in a knowledge gap.

不过我说这话，是因为我记忆力不错，对模式识别也很在行，这类事情我都挺擅长的。

But then I say that as somebody who has a very good memory, is good at, like, natural pattern recognition, all that sort of stuff.

有些东西对我来说特别自然，好像天生就懂。

So maybe my intuition like, I think there were things I that come very intuitive to me.

比如一看模拟对局，就能立刻把整套策略‘下载’下来，这种模式识别对我而言特别顺手。

I think sort of downloading a complete strategy when I look at a sim and the pattern recognition and that sort of stuff is extremely intuitive to me.

但大多数人说的‘扑克直觉’，可不是指这个。

But when most people think of poker intuition, that's not what they think of.

对。

Right.

他们觉得扑克直觉就是，我就是知道这家伙会是个喜欢诈唬的玩家。

They think of poker intuition as being like, I just knew this guy would be the type of player who'd bluff you.

昨天我们跟Chewy聊的时候，就提到过这个。

See, when we talked to Chewy yesterday, this came up, obviously.

我觉得他所说的很多直觉，其实只是潜意识里的模式识别，而有经验的人更容易做到这一点。

I argue that a lot of what he calls intuition is just, pattern recognition kinda happening at the subconscious level, which is easier for someone who has more experience.

比如说，你提到轻度四注对抗一个整天玩中等三注的玩家，只要你稍微留意，就会发现这个人从来不做三注。

So like for for example, when you talked about the light four bet versus a guy who has a mid three betting all day, that's kinda like if you're paying attention at all, you will notice that, you know, a guy's never three betting.

但可能还有一些其他细节，你下意识地注意到了，然后据此做出决定或调整。

But maybe there are some other things that you kinda, like, subconsciously notice, and then you make a decision or deviation based off of that.

因为你没意识到促成这个决定的模式，所以你只能用直觉来解释。

And because you haven't noticed the pattern that went into that decision, the only way you can explain it is intuition.

但我觉得，一旦我们更清楚地理解了背后那些模式，就可以把这种能力归为别的东西，比如干脆就叫模式识别。

But I think at some point, once we understand more about the patterns that went into it, then we can categorize that as something other than intuition and maybe just call it like, I don't know, pattern recognition.

我觉得很多人把扑克里的那种直觉说得神乎其神，其实很多都能用这种方式解释。

And I think a lot of the stuff that people refer to as intuition and poker, I think a lot of it can be explained in that way.

对。

Yeah.

我同意。

I I agree.

我觉得直觉的一部分，也包括你注意到某些信号后该怎么应对，比如经典的情况——河牌圈对方脖子在跳。

I think part of the intuition is also knowing what to do with the pad When you notice, you know, like a classic one is, oh, this guy's neck's pulsing on the river.

哦，明白了。

It's like, okay.

所以你得学会把这些观察用起来。

So you you need to be able to apply that.

首先，这根本就不是什么直觉。

First of all, that isn't even intuition.

对吧？

Right?

因为这完全是你可以直接看到的东西。

Because that's, like, literally something you're seeing.

举个例子，尼克·皮特拉杰洛告诉我，有一次在高额桌，有人率先加注，而尼克在截胡位拿着KQ无同花。

But, like, to to use an example, Nick Pietrangelo, remember, told me about a hand that was somebody opened at a high roller, and Nick had King Queen off in the cutoff.

不知为什么，他脑子里某个地方突然提醒他：这家伙手牌很强。

And Nick, for whatever reason, something in the back of his brain just told him, hey.

于是尼克直接把KQ无同花弃了。

This guy has a good hand, and Nick just folded king queen off.

从技术上讲，他知道KQ无同花在这个位置是标准的入池牌，但同时也清楚，这手牌在这个位置其实价值不大。

Now that's an example of he knows technically that king queen off is a pure VPIP there, but he also knows technically that king queen off is not worth very much there.

如果你觉得对方有强牌的可能性，比正常情况高出两到三倍，或者有其他迹象，那这就是一种——

So if you think somebody might just have a strong hand, you know, two to three times as often as they're supposed to, or maybe they, you know, may or whatever, then that's an example of kinda, hey.

该做点什么了，但这并不是明确的肢体信号。

Do something It's not a direct tell.

比如，你不会说‘他脖子在跳’这种明显的迹象。

You know, like, oh, in the neck do neck's pulsing.

他们觉得这就像一种第六感。

They looked at it's just some sort of spidey sense thing.

然后你再往前一步，从技术角度分析，这明明是个跟注牌，但其实价值不大。

And then you take that to the next step, which is the technical knowledge of, like, it's a pure call, but it's not worth very much.

然后你就明白了。

And then you go, okay.

既然直觉告诉我对方牌很强，而技术上我又知道自己的牌没多大价值，那干脆弃牌吧。

Well, given my intuition that I think he's strong and that I know technically that my hands aren't worth very much, I can follow.

对。

Yeah.

对我来说，这本质上就是记牌锁定，因为从默认参数来看，这确实是个纯跟注。

And and to me, that's essentially just like note locking because it's it's a pure call technically based on, like, the default parameters.

但如果你注意到这个人在这个位置总是牌力偏强，那它就不再是个单纯的跟注了。

But if you note lock that this person is overly strong in this spot, then it doesn't become a pure call anymore just based off of that.

对。

Yeah.

所以我们跟Chewy聊过，很多这种偏差其实都发生在边缘地带，因为本来局势就已经很接近了。

And so that's something we talked to Chewy was about about was that a lot of these deviations are at the margins when things are already kinda close anyway.

对我来说，如果你开牌是K，我三注，你却明确知道他拿的是A，这种情形就很难解释了，因为这已经不是小偏差，而是重大偏离，就算你做了笔记锁定，也很少会遇到这种情况。

To me, if it's if you see a situation where you open Kings and I got three bets and you just know he has aces, like, to me, that would be much more much harder to explain because now we're talking about a significant deviation that you probably will not get to even if you note lock.

我觉得这种情况的发生，往往源于一些你可能根本没意识到的因素。

And I think when that happens, it comes from, like I said, some things that you may not be aware of.

当你提到Nick说他脑子里有种隐隐的感觉时，我一直在想……

And and when you thought about when you mentioned about Nick saying that, you know, he just had, a feeling in the back of his head.

我怀疑，有些时候你根本没在刻意想什么笔记锁定或偏差，而是你的身体先感受到了，比你的大脑还早，你明白我的意思吗？

I wonder if some of this stuff is, like, you're not thinking about these, note locks and and deviations, but more so your body is kinda, like, feeling it before your brain is, if that makes sense.

对。

Yeah.

我还觉得这其中有一部分是……

I also feel there's an element of it, which

如果你在主动寻找现场的微表情或读牌线索，就很容易陷入各种偏见，因为你本身就在搜寻某种信号，可能会产生确认偏误——你越想找，就越觉得找到了。

is if you're, like, looking for live tells or looking for live reads, like like, actively, you might be sort of subjecting yourself to all sorts of biases about the fact that you're you're, like, searching for something, like and you might like, a confirmation bias where you're searching for something and you might find it.

如果你只是专心打牌，突然觉得哪里不对劲，但又说不清具体哪里不对、为什么不对，我觉得这就是相信直觉的好例子。我以前打比赛的时候，还没什么笔记锁，就老盯着对手在河牌圈看五分钟，拼命想：这到底意味着什么？

Well, if you're just kind of, you know, present and playing the hand and something strikes you as off and maybe you can't even explain what it is or why it is, that I think is an example of, well, trusting your intuition, I think, is quite good because I've, you know, I played tournaments before chalklocks existed, and I've done the thing where I've stared at somebody in the river for five minutes trying to see if, like, oh, like, what did this mean?

这到底意味着什么？

What did this mean?

他们脚在抖，

They they know, they're tapping their foot.

摆弄着筹码，

They're truffling their chips.

反正就是各种小动作。

They're whatever the thing.

我不确定我以前那些观察到底能给我多少有用信息，但每次不是刻意去找，而是突然冒出来的那种感觉，往往都是靠谱的、有价值的线索。

And it's unclear if any of the stuff I was doing was actually, like, gaining me that much information, but I feel the times when something sort of comes to me that I'm I'm not searching for, it's usually actionable and and good good information.

对。

Right.

说得通。

That makes sense.

我这里有个来自Twitter上Joe Sicko Jr.的问题，感觉特别贴切。

I've got a question from Joe Sicko junior on Twitter here that feels very relevant.

他问，你在强手身上发现过哪些微妙或明显的模式，能让你判断他们状态有点不对劲？你又会怎么实时调整？

He asks, what are the patterns, subtle or otherwise, you've learned to recognize in strong players that tells you they're slightly off their a game, and how do you adjust in real time?

我觉得其中一个关键点，就是留意每个人当天的情绪状态。

I think one of the big ones is just noticing, like, the moods people are in on a given day.

这不一定是说他们状态好或不好，有时候玩家就是突然决定：今天我要多打几手牌。

So it not it doesn't even necessarily mean they're on or off their a game, but, like, sometimes guys just go when they decide, I'm gonna, like you know, I'm playing a lot of pots today.

我不想今天输得太惨。

I don't wanna fall today.

这样你就可以相应调整策略，而且这种现象在非高水平玩家身上也常见。

And then you can adjust and this happens with non a level players as well.

我觉得这是很重要的一点。

I think that's a big one.

他们就是会突然说：嘿。

They're just like, hey.

不知怎么的，他今天这趟牌局状态特别不一样。

For whatever reason, he came in a mood today on this trip, on this.

他今天想大干一场，那我就跟着调整；反过来，如果他玩得很紧，我也一样应对。

He's looking to blast off today, and then I adjust accordingly Or or the or the opposite, obviously, they're tight.

另一个更微妙的迹象，得看具体局面——比如我会想，嗯，这个位置有点特别。

The the other one is it's a little trickier, and it's a little more, like, spot specific where I'm like, okay.

我们碰上了一个挺怪的位置。

We're in some odd spot.

我真的觉得他懂怎么打这个位置吗？

Do I really think they're gonna know how to play this spot?

比如说，我们玩的是低牌盲注，位置靠前的人拿了张三，还加注了。

You know, we're we're playing, like, low jack you know, under the gun was low jack three part.

这位置可不常见。

It's a pretty unusual spot.

这局面战术上特别难处理。

It's a pretty tricky tactical spot.

没多少人会像那样深入研究过，尤其是在大盲位面对三注时的这种局面。

Not that many people are all that studied or, like, words added in the way they might be, like, hijacked with big blind three bad part.

假设翻牌是单色牌面。

Now let's say the flop is like a monotone flop.

所以呢，情况就是这样。

So it's like, okay.

我们之前已经处在一种不寻常的翻牌前位置，现在又进入了一个更古怪的翻牌后子局面。

Now we'll in an odd preflop spot, now we're in an even odd subsect subsection of that post flop.

这时候问题就来了——我们俩其实都不太清楚该怎么打这个牌面。

And then it becomes a question of neither of us are playing our a game here because neither of us really know how to play this spot.

接下来就得想，对方在这种情况下会犯什么错？

And then it becomes a question, okay, how do I think this person, what sort of mistakes will they make here?

因为这根本不是个能稳扎稳打、精准应对的局面。

Because this is not a spot where they're gonna be solid and accurate.

你明白吧？

You know?

这种情况挺少见的。

That's it's an unusual spot.

那我该怎么打这手牌？我觉得他们可能会犯什么错误？

So how can I play my hand, and what are the mistakes that I think they'd be might be making that this hand?

还有，有时候多人底池里也会出现这种情况。

And and I guess another one will be in multi way pots sometimes.

在多人底池里，如果你面对的是个比较弱的玩家，而你和桌上其他高手都在打自己的B计划，因为你们都想从那个弱玩家身上赢到最多的筹码。

There's weird things where you but if you're playing in a multi way pot with, like, a a weaker player, you and the other good players are playing some version of your b game versus each other because you're trying to maximize how much you could win versus the other player.

然后这就变成了一种很奇怪的博弈，就像，好吧。

And then it becomes this weird game of, like, okay.

我知道自己会从那个差玩家那里把损失赚回来，那我到底能向那个好玩家泄露多少期望值呢？

How much EV can I leak to the good player knowing I'll get it back from the the bad player?

而在那种情况下，如果你跟另一个好玩家单挑，你们俩都在发挥最高水平，你就得想办法找出新的常态，然后在此基础上继续推进。

And then in that way, then if you get, like, heads up with the other good player, you both are playing your a games, and you need to figure out, like, the new normal and and proceed from there.

这也是我觉得‘每日策略’非常有价值的一点，因为你可以做这些实验。

And this is one of the things that I find so valuable about punt of the day is that you do these experiments.

你知道，我常给别人的建议是关于求解器的，其实它就跟你翻教科书后面的答案一样。

Know, that you're like, the advice that I'm always giving people about solvers is, you know, it's just like looking up the answer in the back of a textbook.

它就是个工具。

It's like a tool.

这其实是Alex Sutherland在这档播客里给我的建议，它就是个用来做实验的工具。

It's really advice that Alex Sutherland gave me on this podcast, but that it's a tool for conducting experiments.

所以当你用求解器做研究时，你不是光看看结果，然后说哦，原来我这么打是对的或者错的。

So when you're doing Sabra work, you're not just saying like, Oh, I looked it up, and it turns out my play was or was not correct.

通常情况并非如此，毕竟这节目叫‘每日菜鸟’。

Usually, it was not since it's called punt of the day.

你知道，你也会想，好吧。

You know, you're also like, okay.

那如果我做出这个假设呢？

Well, what if what if I made this assumption?

或者，如果他用的是正确的策略进行三次加注，我的打法还行；但要是他没按正确策略来，我的打法就会输很多。

Or, you know, my play would be okay if he's actually three betting the correct strategy, but, like, if he's not, then my play is losing a lot.

你是在实时进行这类实验，检验自己做的各种假设，或者看看不同假设对结果的影响有多大，我觉得这才是使用求解器更有价值的方式。

You're conducting those kinds of experiments and testing assumptions that you're making in real time, or looking at how sensitive is the response to various assumptions, which I would say is is the more valuable way to to use a solver.

但我觉得，很多人用求解器的时候，并没有这种思维模式。

But I think my experience is not a lot of people really have that mindset when they're working with solvers.

是的。

Yeah.

确实不容易。

It's tough.

如果它真是一种工具，比如你给我一把电钻，我肯定就是往墙上乱打孔。

You know, if it is a tool, like, if you gave me a power drill, I'd be putting a bunch of holes in the wall.

你懂的。

You know?

我不太会用。

Like, I'm not good at it.

对。

Yeah.

还有一点，我觉得网格的可视化对学习很有帮助，但也很容易误导人。比如你看到一块全是绿色的区域，就会想，哦，没问题。

The other thing is I think a grid can be very the visualization of of a grid is very useful for learning, but it can be misleading because you see a block that's, like, all, you know, whatever, all green, and you go, okay.

这明明是个纯跟注。

It's a pure coil.

没错，确实是纯跟注，但它只赢了十分之一个大盲注。

Like, well, it is a pure coil, but it's making a tenth of a big blind.

所以你得克服这种错觉：同样是绿色的条，一个纯跟注能赢六个大盲注，另一个却只赢十分之一个大盲注。

So have to get over the the disconnect between a pure call that's making, like, six big blinds and a pure call that's making it a tenth of a big blind have the same green bars.

是的。

Yeah.

就算你加上期望值、调色块、做各种标注，这些做法其实也已经是在用求解器的某种特定方式了。

It it's and even if you, like, do the things where you put the EVs on and you do this and and you do the the color coding and all that, then that's also we're getting into, okay, well, this is how you use a solvable part of the way you use it.

它只是把信息以你能看懂的方式呈现出来而已。

Well, it's displaying the information in a way that's legible to you.

乔·西科还有个问题，趁现在问一下。

Another question from Joe Siko while we're with him.

你认为在基于求解器的策略和顶尖玩家实际针对真实锦标赛玩家的打法之间，最大的差距在哪里？

Where do you think the biggest gap still exists between solver based strategy and how elite players actually exploit real tournament populations?

我觉得至今还没完全破解的，是关于后续手牌的那部分黑箱。

I mean, I think the the the black box that still hasn't fully been solved is the the future game stuff.

这真的很难搞。

I just think that's tough.

这么说吧，

Well, it's like, okay.

你打一场500手的锦标赛，赢的人要打满500手。

You're playing a a 500 or a tournament where, like, the winner of the tournament will play 500 hands.

那你得想清楚，到了第225手的时候，该怎么调整你的策略。

And then you need to figure out how should you adjust your hand on strategy on hand that were, like, 225.

大家确实有些想法，但都差不多是凭感觉猜的，不够精准，尤其是当你想讨论那些边缘打法时——随便看一个ICM模型里的薄四注加注，就会发现大多数人打的方式其实很奇怪。

And people have ideas, but they sell it's all kinda, like, guesswork and and it's not perfect, especially because it requires like, if you wanna talk about, like, thin plays, look at any ICM, you know, thin four bet chub, and you'll see, like, the way most people are playing, it's like, hey.

如果大多数玩家的实际打法是这样，比如某个局面理论上你应该用 suited ace 10% 的频率四注加注，但现实中，面对大多数对手，你可能该加注的频率是0%或者100%。

If the way most people are playing if if there's a spot where, say, you're supposed to four bet job with the suited ace 10% of the time, you're probably supposed to four bet job 0% of the time or a 100% of the time with most actual players.

所以我觉得，这可能是目前最难搞清楚的问题了。

So so that becomes that, I think, is kind of like the the hardest thing that still hasn't really been figured out.

你有没有在尝试解决这个问题？

Is there anything that you're doing to try to figure that out?

说实话，没有特别在做。

I mean, not particularly.

就算你想找，比如GTO实验室的决赛桌方案，我觉得都是FGS三，跟GTO巫师的也不一样。

Like, I mean, even if you wanted you can look at, like, the GTO lab final table terms, which I think are all FGS three, and they differ from GTO wizard.

但就连FGS本身，它的逻辑也是假设未来的手牌只是直接全压的牌型。

But even FGS, the way it works, they assume the future hands are just pushed foiled hands.

所以这种模型其实也不够完整，它只在某些特定情况下管用，比如它会建议你在大盲前加注前，从枪口位更宽地全压。

So even that's, like, not particularly, like, complete, and it works well for, like, specific things like, yeah, it'll tell you to shove wide under the gun wider under the gun before posting a big blind ante.

对吧？

Right?

它能告诉你这些具体操作，但不会给你一套完整的决赛桌策略。

It'll tell you stuff like that, but it won't give you necessarily complete strategy for final table.

至于要解决的问题，其实理论上你完全可以模拟整个锦标赛的进程。

And, like, in terms of, like, things to solve, like, I ways you could solve a whole tournament.

我肯定现在有人在用大语言模型或者类似AGI的技术研究这些，但我自己不懂计算机科学，也没法给出什么实质性的答案。

Like, I I I'm sure, though, you know, with, like, LLMs or or stuff like that or, like, some sort of AGI, I'm sure these people are working on things, but I have no computer science background or know nothing in a way they could actually give an answer.

你有没有考虑过用巨块模型来分析？

Do you ever think in terms of a gigablocks?

说到这个概念，虽然不是用在打扑克上，但我确实经常想到它，也经常想到深度学习。

You know, I do think of it like not with playing Poker, but I do I do think of the the concept a lot, and I do think of of DL, you know, kind of often.

我不知道他现在在忙些什么。

I don't know what he's up to nowadays.

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

我们应该想办法请他来参加节目。

We should try to get him on the show.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我总希望这样的人有社交媒体，这样我就能知道他们最近在忙什么。

I mean, that I would do you I I always kinda hope people like that have social media just so I could see what they're up to.

我觉得如果他有社交媒体，我们早就该知道了。

I feel like if he had social media, we would know about it already.

至少如果他用的是真名，或者任何能明确识别出他的账号的话。

At least if he had social media under his, like, real name or any of those identifiable to him.

是的。

Yeah.

很多这样的人性格都很相似，也都最终走上了类似的道路，但谁也说不准。

Many of those people have a very similar personality, and they all have kind of ended up in similar spaces, but you never know.

为了让不了解我们说的是谁的听众明白—— probably most people——以前有个叫Gigabet的人，经常在Two Plus Two发帖，据我所知，他是个相当成功的玩家。

I should say for the sake of people who who don't know who we're talking about, which is probably most people, there was a guy named gigabet who used to post on two plus two, and he he was, from what I could tell, a pretty successful player.

他有一套非常独特的打法和思考方式。

He had very unique strategies and ways of thinking about the game.

那会儿还处于解算器出现之前，很难真正证明某种策略一定有问题。

This was in a very, like, pre solver era when it was harder to, like, prove that things were definitively wrong.

但他当时写过一些很长的文章，我那时候还是个新手，觉得这些文字有种神秘感——他声称自己考虑了一些看不见的因素，这些因素让他能做出一些非常不寻常的决策，按我们现在的话说，就是‘错位’的打法。

But he would write these sort of long screeds that I, at the time, as a very new player, found there was almost like a mystical quality to them, where he was sort of claiming that there were these these intangible factors that he was taking into account that enabled him to make these, like, really kind of unconventional, what we would now call wrong place.

所以，吉加布洛克就是这类人之一。

And so, yeah, gigablocks was part of that.

这种说法认为，在锦标赛里，筹码的数量其实没那么重要。

This sort of, like, certain chips didn't really matter that much in a tournament.

关键在于筹码在桌上的分布，甚至有时候你反而希望筹码流向某些特定的玩家。

It was it was kind of about, like, where the chips were at the table, and there might even be times where you wanted chips to go to certain players.

比如，拥有五点五个盲注和六个点五个盲注的区别，可能远不如让自己有机会拿到十二个盲注来得重要——这类理论很多，而我当时对扑克了解不多，说白了，他其实挺会忽悠的。

And, like, the difference between having five and a half versus six and a half blinds might not matter that much compared to, like, giving yourself a chance to have 12 blinds or something like there are a lot of these sort of, like, theories that as someone who didn't really have a lot of like, I think, I guess, essentially, he was he was a good bullshitter.

我觉得他可能连自己都骗住了，但那时候我懂的太少，只觉得这人好像看透了什么别人看不到的东西，太厉害了。

Like, and I think he may have been bullshitting himself, but, like, I didn't know that much about poker at the time, so I was just like, wow, this guy sounds like he's really onto something that no one else is onto.

说他是‘吹牛’其实不太准确，因为他确实赢过钱。

Essentially, I think he was sort of Charlotte is not quite the right word because he was actually successful.

但回头想想，我当时是被一大套看似有道理、实则多半是胡扯的东西给骗了，不过也未必全都是胡扯。

But, like, I I feel like I got hoodwinked by what in in retrospect was largely bullshit, but still maybe not entirely bullshit.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，不深入讲的话，我觉得这个‘巨块’的概念确实就是这样。

I mean, I I so without getting too deep into it, I think the concept of the gigablock was like that yeah.

比如ICM模型认为你的筹码越多，价值就越低，但他觉得存在一些关键节点，比如在锦标赛里取得筹码领先后，你的筹码反而变得更值钱，因为你未来赢面会更大。

Like ICM chips are not distributed linearly, but instead of ICM, which thinks your chips constantly decrease in value as you get more and more, he thought there were inflection points where, you know, like, such as getting a chip lead in a cassette and go, which made your chips worth even more because then you would have a big win rate in future game scenarios.

有意思的是，你说他打的牌很反常、很糟，但其实按现在的标准来看，当时桌上的每个人都在打这种反常又不靠谱的牌。

I mean, it's funny because you say he, you know, he made playing that were, like, unconventional and bad, but, like, he was playing in games where by modern standards, everybody was making plays that were unconventional and bad.

所以，他确实是个挺特别的人。

So, yeah, he was an interesting guy.

我现在都还记得他打过的手牌。

I've looked at his hand in my mouth now.

他从2009年之后就没再拿过奖金，早就退出扑克圈很久了。

He hasn't cashed anything since 2009, so he's really been out of poker for for quite some time.

不过还有个家伙，我觉得跟他有点像，可能也算个骗子，或者说是那种……有点怪的人。

But an another guy, I think, who's kinda like that, maybe a bit of a charlatan, maybe a bit of a kinda, like, guy with.

但我偶尔想到他的一点是，当时大家都觉得他是个弱手，因为他玩的是36人、28人甚至6人桌，而那时候的标准通常是19人或17人桌。

But one thing I thought of I think about him occasionally was people thought he was a fish at the time because he played, like, '36, 28, and six max when, like, the standard was, like, nineteen seventeen or something.

但后来发现，其实那时候大多数在线牌局都是松散型的，所以他对于在那种环境下能玩得多松，其实看得挺准的，我敢肯定当时就是那样。

But turns out he was, I mean, I guess, these were no anti games mostly online at the time, but so he was, like, kinda right about, you know, how loose you could actually get away with playing, especially in those games, I'm sure, at the time.

我觉得不管是扑克、赌博，还是金融，任何这类领域，最难的都是在‘知道一条建议是对的’和‘真正能把它转化成可执行的行动’之间，差距大得惊人。

And and I think one of the things that's tough about poker or gambling or or finance or anything is that this gap between having a piece of advice that is accurate and actually being able to calibrate it and make it something actionable you can act on.

这两者之间的鸿沟，简直大到离谱。

Like, the the gap between those two things is is gigantic.

所以，我觉得他在那些关键转折点上的判断是对的，那些节点确实能带来巨大影响。

So, like, was correct that throughout these inflection points, I think that they make quite a big difference.

比如在SNG里拿到筹码领先，价值真的非常高。

You know, getting a chip lead in a sit and go, I think, is worth quite a lot.

那时候你只要不断全压，不断偷盲，就能一点点把对手磨掉。

At the time, you could just shove and shove and shove and keep sealing the blinds and whittling people down.

问题是，你愿不愿意去冒个负期望的代价，比如输掉一个或两个大盲注？

The question is, like, would you be may willing to make a negative, you know, one b b or two b b?

就像那条线，这就是难点所在。

Like, with the line, that's that's what becomes tough about it.

对。

Right.

不是指意识到它的存在。

Not not, like, the recognizing that it exists.

我觉得还有另一层意思，你知道，我之所以这么想，是因为我们刚跟 LuckyChewy 聊过，谈到愿意去尝试一些事情。我是说，我这是在打个比方，但也许在另一个平行宇宙里，大家回过头来看，会觉得他是有史以来最伟大的扑克大脑。

I think there's also the thing, you know, obviously, this is on my mind because we did just talk to LuckyChewy of being willing to experiment with things that, like, you know, like so I mean, I I'm calling about a a child, and and but, like, maybe there's an alternate universe where everyone is looking back at him as the greatest poker mind that ever existed.

因为他在尝试一些非传统的打法，如果这些策略最后被证明是对的，那他看起来就是个天才。

Like, because, like, he was he was doing and trying unconventional things, and had they turned out to be correct, you know, he would look like a genius.

就像你刚才说的，这些策略里可能确实有一些道理。

And like you said, maybe there was a hint of some correctness to them.

所以敢于做出这种判断，基本上打扑克是必须的，因为你不能光跟着别人走。

And so the willingness to say, which I mean is basically essential for poker, because you can't just be doing what everyone else is doing.

所以敢于承认，比如，我觉得大家都错了。

So the willingness to say, like, I think everyone else is wrong.

我觉得我这里有个能赚钱的洞察，就算别人会觉得我像个菜鸟，我也得行动起来。

I think I have an insight here that I can profit from, and I need to act on that even though it's maybe going to make me look like a fish to everyone Yeah.

就在我周围的人眼里。

Around me.

我觉得，这种特质对一个成功的扑克玩家来说特别重要。

I mean, I think that's a very important characteristic for a successful poker player to have.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得还有一点挺有意思，就是每个人的天赋特点，和当时扑克界整体的大趋势之间的关系。

I think I also think it's interesting in terms of the timing of people's natural attributes and, like, that what the sort of macro metagame thing that's going on in poker at the time is.

我再举个篮球的例子吧，假如斯蒂芬·库里出生在1960年，他也许能进NBA，但大概也就跟……嗯，说不好。

Like, I I'm gonna use another basketball example here, but, you know, like, if Steph Curry were born in 1960, he probably would have made the NBA, but probably would have had, like, a kinda, like I don't know.

可能就跟他爸差不多吧。

Maybe a career like his dad.

你懂我的意思吧。

You know?

但他出生的时机正好是NBA开始允许射手放手投三分的时候。

But he was born at the time where he gotta go in the NBA just as they just started letting good shooters shoot as many threes as they wanted, basically.

我想，我之前提到过汤姆的事。

And I think, like, you know, for me, I talked about the thing with with Tom.

呃，如果我出生在1980年，抱歉，我是说——

Well, yeah, if I were born in 1980 sorry.

如果我出生在1960年，得像埃里克·塞德尔那样磨炼本事，我可能根本练不出那些技能。

If I were born in 1960 and I needed to cut my teeth the way, say, like, someone like Eric Seidel did, I probably wouldn't have had those skills.

我不确定自己会不会走上那条路，我拿塞德尔当例子，是因为他在背景和经历上跟我更像，跟多尔那种人可不一样。

I don't know if I would have gone to and I I use Seidel as an example because he's, you know, demographically and and biographically kinda similar to me, much more so than, like, someone like Doyle.

我不确定自己会不会跑去纽约的地下俱乐部玩双陆棋。

And, yeah, I don't know if I would have, you know, gone to, like, play backgammon in, like, underground clubs in New York.

你说是吧？

You know?

但我赶上了在线扑克兴起的年代，刚上大学那会儿，正是线上扑克的爆发期。

But I managed to play poker at a time when online you know, I was online poker boom was starting as I entered uni entered university.

Solve Proliferation 这个事儿开始的时候，正好赶上了对我特别有利的时机，也契合我的天赋。

Solve proliferation kinda started at a time that was fortunate for me and fortunate for my natural skill set.

所以，没错，时机这东西一直都很关键。

So, yeah, there's always, a timing thing.

也许我们觉得 Gigabet 是个天才，但说不定他只是生得早了点，或者晚了点。

And maybe maybe, you know, we think of gigabet as being a guy who was you know, maybe he was just a little too early or a little too late or something.

对。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

你现在还玩那种……说起来，像这种有点边缘的牌局吗？你有没有参与过这类私人局？

Do you play in any, like you know, now that we're on the subject of the kinda, like, dodgy games, do do you play in any, like, private games, or have have you participated in that world at all?

没有。

No.

就只玩过 Trident 直播里的那些局，还有一些别的。

Only only, like, the Trident stream games and some stuff.

在Trident，我偶尔会玩一些直播赛，也会玩一些非直播的局。

At Trident, occasionally, I'll play at some stream games and some games off stream as well.

现在我知道有人靠这个赚得不错，但每当我算一笔账，就会发现私局每小时能打的手数其实很有限。

But now the I know people have done very well in it, but whenever I do, like, kinda, like, the math on the private games of you get only so many hands per hour.

这些局的抽水通常都很高。

They're often highly raked.

如果你再算上被出老千或者被坑的可能性，那本来每百手能赢30个大盲的游戏，可能实际就只剩10个甚至5个大盲的收益了。

If you factor in any sort of, like, chance of of getting cheated or or just getting stiffed, then pretty quickly, it's like this game where you're winning 30 b b per 100 might just be a game where you're winning, like, 10 b b per 100 or five b b per 100.

所以这地方还是不错，但还不至于让我把全部精力都押在这上面。

So it's still, like, a a good spot, but it's not like my whole life for that spot.

另外，我有些朋友在多伦多玩地下牌局，但都没什么规模。

And, also, like, the there's not much I have friends who deal in, like, underground games and stuff in Toronto, but, like, none of them are particularly big.

我一直想不通的是，这类牌局里，你们为什么非得拉我进去？

Part of what I've always wondered about those games and I I know there's kind of an answer to this question, but I'm a little suspicious of, like, why do you want me in that game in the first place?

如果你没骗我，那我其实对你们来说根本没什么吸引力。

Like, I'm not, if if you're not cheating me, there's not a lot of reason you should want me in the game.

一般来说，你得给操办游戏的人分一部分抽成。

I mean, generally, you give a piece to the people who are running the game.

如果你玩的是个特别水的私人局，而且你全靠自己，那我真得怀疑这局有问题。

It's like, if you're playing a game if you're playing a private game that's super soft and you have a 100% of yourself, I would be really shittled.

对啊。

Right.

有个人说他玩了个PLO私人局，结果他全压的时候对三带对三。

Somebody was playing a a private game, and they said it was a PLO, and they're like, man, I got it all in with a set over set.

我也是，全压的时候对三带对三。

Well, I got it all in with ace, like, a set over set.

对方两次都拿了更高的三条，结果两次都输了。

They had the highest set twice and lost both time.

这种情况发生的概率有多大？

What are the odds of that?

我当时就在想，会不会是安德鲁在背后动手脚。

And I was thinking, like, maybe Andrew for set.

对。

Right.

没错。

Yeah.

我是这么想的，你提到的这个对比挺有意思，比如把多伊尔·布伦森和埃里克·赛德尔作比较，感觉赛德尔就像是个过渡人物，连接了布伦森那一代和后来那些纯粹的网络宅男——他们根本不用操心怎么从牌局里带着钱全身而退。

I mean, I I do think about the the thing, like, you said, the contrasting Doyle Brunson with an Eric Seidel or seeing Eric Seidel as kind of a transition between, like, the Doyle Brunson's and the people who can just be, like, full on pasty Internet nerds and not need to worry about, you know, how am I going to leave this game with my money?

对吧？

Right?

那时候，最重要的技能似乎就是这个。

Whereas, like, it seemed like that was kind of the biggest skill.

打牌的技术反而是次要的——当然，不是说多伊尔牌技不行，跟他对局的人确实没他强，但我觉得，怎么进牌局、怎么带着钱出来，至少和牌技一样关键。

Like, being good at cards was probably pretty secondary for I mean, not that not that Doyle wasn't good at cards relative to the people he was playing against, but, like, it seemed like at least as important of a skill as, like, how do I get into and out of the game, you know, with money in my hand?

对。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

而且，说实话，就是能拿到钱就行。

And, like, yeah, just getting paid.

不只是不被抢，连被赖账都不让发生。

Like, not not even, like, not just not getting robbed, but even just, like, not getting stiffed.

你懂的。

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

说到以前那种地下二二牌局，我记得Jason Stresser好像给他的大学校报写过一篇稿子，讲他参加纽约地下牌局的事，当时他已经在赢牌桌老板了，听说这人可能跟黑帮有点关系。

Speaking of the old school two and two stuff, I remember a story that Jason Stresser, I think he wrote it for his college newspaper, a piece about playing in like an underground New York game where he'd already been winning against the owner of the club, who I guess there was some implication that he was like a mob guy.

Jason在三注底池里拿到了铁牌，那家伙本来就不爽，直接骂他：你这小混蛋。

And Jason flopped the nuts against him in a three bet pot, and the guy got sort of like was already sort of pissed off and said like, You little shit.

你别想再赢我了，说完就全压了，根本不知道Jason手里是铁牌。

You're not going to beat me again, and went all in, not knowing that Jason had flopped the nuts.

杰森说，他决定干脆弃牌，拿上钱走人，不再继续玩了。

And Jason said that, you know, he he decided he would just fold and take his money and leave rather than try to, like, continue.

我记得杰森当时停顿了一下，心想：我是不是被设局了？

Well, I remember Jason, part of the story was he he paused for a second because he's like, am I getting set up here?

然后他想：要是我现在犹豫，他肯定觉得我在故意拖延他。

And then he was like, well, now he's gonna think I'm slow rolling him too.

你懂的。

You know?

这简直是双重打击，他直接就决定了。

Like like, it's like the double whammy, and he's just like, yeah.

赶紧走人。

Out of here.

是的。

Yeah.

这个细节特别关键，我之前居然完全忘了。

That's a really important part of the story that I did not remember.

谢谢

Thank you

这么说。

for that.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

这是Blue Sky提的问题，其实我当时是同时向你和安德鲁发起了问题征集。

This is a question from Blue Sky that actually was I think I I I sent out the request for for questions for both you and for Andrew at the same time.

这问题本来是该问安德鲁的，但来得太晚，没来得及问他。

I think this was technically a question for Andrew, but it came in too late for him.

那我来回答你吧。

So I'll ask you.

热狗算不算三明治？

Is a hotdog a sandwich?

这是来自 KRS2D2 的问题。

This is from k r s two d two.

对。

Yeah.

这算是个网络上挺火的问题。

This is a like, the, like, Internet stouty pack question.

我不确定。

I don't know.

你知道吗？

I you know what?

我最近冰箱里有热狗，但没热狗面包，我就把一片面包折起来当面包用了。

I will say, I recently had hot dogs at the fridge and no hot dog buns and bread, and I kind of folded up a slice of bread like a bun.

所以根据我自己的经历，我觉得这算三明治。

So I will say, based on my personal experience, that I would call that a sandwich.

所以，是的，它就是三明治。

So, yes, it's a sandwich.

你打算怎么调整你的扑克时间？

How are you gonna be adjusting your poker?

我们之前聊过，你因为第二个孩子要出生，调整了写通讯的时间安排。

I mean, we've we've talked about you adjusting your your newsletter writing schedule with with the second child coming.

那你打算怎么调整打扑克的时间呢？

How are you gonna be adjusting your your poker schedule?

你会请陪产假吗？

Are you taking paternity leave?

是的。

Yeah.

我正考虑把秋天的那场三叉戟活动当作一个可能的停顿点。

The the full stop, I'm sort of, like, eyeing as a potential one would be whatever the fall trident is.

但就连这个，我也不太确定。

But even that, I'm not sure about.

一切都还悬着，得看各种情况吧。

It's all kinda, like, up in the air depending on, you know, well, host of things, obviously.

是的。

Yeah.

现在棘手的是，我大儿子已经大到能感受到想我了，这让我挺难过的。

It's it's the tricky thing is now I'm getting to the point where my older son is old enough where, like, he can miss me, which is difficult.

你知道，他现在有记忆了，会说话，能表达，什么都会了。

You know, he's he's had, like, a memory now, and he can speak he has words, and he has all all these sorts of things.

所以我不确定，如果我离开两三个星期，他会怎么样。

So I don't know what it would be like if I just left for two, three weeks.

那肯定会很难受。

That would be difficult.

等他再大一点，四岁、五岁，甚至更大，情况就更不一样了。

And then, certainly, when the four and five and whatever.

所以现在我也说不准。

So I don't really know right now.

我目前就专心把家里准备好，迎接另一个宝宝。

Just kind of focusing on getting the house ready for the the other baby.

说实话，世界大赛期间我一向比较清闲，最近几年更是如此，因为加拿大的税务问题，我在美国打比赛不太方便。

I mean, the the World Series is always kind of downtime for me because of or has been the last little bit because of the Canadian tax situation playing in The US.

所以我现在就是一天一天过，慢慢理清头绪。

So I really am taking a kind of just, like, one day at a time and just trying to figure it out.

不过说实话，我已经稍微休了个假，算是在旅行上歇了口气。

But, yeah, I'm definitely taking a bit of a bit of a travel I mean, I've already taken a bit of a travel break.

其实也挺难的，我本来计划去年秋天去参加JG的赛事或者EPT巴塞罗那站，结果我儿子突然需要做耳管手术——就是那种特别小的手术。

I mean, it's also just tough because, like, I forgot for for I was gonna do tried in j g last or the EPT Barcelona and tried in j g last fall, and then my son needed to get tubes in his ears, which is, like, the most minor of minor surgeries.

很多人都做过，没什么大不了的。

Tons of people have it done.

但我当时就想，他刚做完手术，恢复期正好赶上最关键的两周，我真能放心出门吗？那种感觉不对劲，可那会儿正好卡在行程中间。

But I was just like, do I really wanna be, like, traveling the day he has, like, the full boost and hopefully, like, last two weeks of his life, you know, that felt didn't feel right, but it was, like, right in the middle of the trip.

然后你还得去谈这些事，学会怎么跟人协商。

And then you need to start negotiating these things that and know how to the way how to negotiate.

以前我25岁的时候，想去哪儿或者不去，提前三天一决定就行，现在完全不是那么回事了。

And, like, it feels like every when I was 25, every trip I wanted to go on or not go on, I could just decide, like, you know, three days before if I wanted to.

现在我每做一次决定都得仔细斟酌，真的挺费神的。

Now every decision I make is needs to be, like, deliberated and thought out, and it's it's yeah.

有孩子当然是好事，但自由少了，确实让人特别烦。

Like, having children is wonderful, but the the lack of freedom is totally frustrating.

你有没有带家人一起旅行过？

Have you ever brought your family with you on a trip?

没有。

No.

我妻子在我们有孩子之前，倒是去过几次。

My my wife well, my wife has gone on trips before we had a baby.

我妻子根本不想带个幼儿去济州岛，那地方……

My wife was not interested in taking, like, a toddler to Jeju, which

说得通。

Yeah.

理解。

Fair enough.

也许是巴哈马这样的地方。

Maybe, like, something like Bahamas.

当然。

Sure.

那又是个挺奇怪的情况，我本来有个私人事务正好卡在旅行中间，根本走不开。

And that just again, that was one of the a weird thing where I had a personal thing that just square in the middle of the trip that I couldn't go.

但我本来也打算去那儿的。

But I was also planning to go to that one.

所以，像巴哈马这样的地方吧。

So, yeah, something like Bahamas.

甚至像伦敦、巴黎之类的，随便哪儿都行。

Even something like, you know, like London or POS or whatever with, like, hey.

挺有意思的，但济州岛、塞浦路斯，算了。

It's, like, fun, but, like, Jeju, Cypress, no.

你有在玩在线游戏吗，还是生完孩子后就完全休息了？

Are you playing online at all, or are you just, like, fully taking time off after the baby's born?

其实我平时也没怎么在线玩。

I just haven't been playing online that much anyways.

在安大略，我只能玩安大略本地的网站。

In Ontario, I I'm supposed to only be playing on I could only play in Ontario sites.

至于作息，实在太乱了。

And sleep schedule wise, it's just too rough.

我老婆现在怀孕了，情况就是这样。

Like, it's probably with my wife, pregnant.

我老婆现在怀孕了，我得每天早上第一个起来照顾她，我是自愿这么做的，所以我也认了。

With my wife, pregnant now, like, I need to be the first one up in the morning to take care of the I mean, I don't you know, I'm choosing to, so I'm like, okay.

我每天早上六点就得起床，最好能准时六点起来。

I need to be up at six in the morning whenever you know, ideally, I'm up at six in the morning.

我带狗出去散步。

I walk the dogs.

然后回到家。

I get back home.

我儿子醒了。

My son wakes up.

我得给他准备上学，诸如此类的事情。

I get him ready, you know, all that sort of stuff.

如果我玩在线扑克玩到十点半甚至十一点，我估计也得一两点才能睡。

And then the idea of just, like, playing online poker till what I even if I, you know, even if I play online poker till, like, 10:30 or eleven, I'm probably not going to bed till, like, one or two.

所以想靠打牌赚点钱，实在太难了。

So it's just it's just too difficult to grind.

我不是想把你们当我的私人助理，天天听我抱怨日程，但我每天必须去接孩子。

And then oh, and then the other not to just turn, like, your audience into my, like, personal assistant where I complain about my itinerary, but I need to be able to pick my son up at date.

我老婆上班，通勤得花一个小时。

My wife works, so and who commutes is, like, an hour long.

所以我每天都要在托儿所关门前接走儿子。

So I need to pick up my son before day care closes every day.

有一次我去接孩子，发现托儿所里就剩他一个，那种感觉，我真的不推荐。

And let me tell you, it's happened a couple times with being the the going to day care and being seeing only one other child there was is not a feeling I recommend.

有一年冬天，下了大雪，我抱着他顶着雪去托儿所。

One time in the in the winter, there was a big snowstorm, and I carried him to day care in the snow.

托儿所七点半开门，我七点四十五才到。

And I got there at, like, day care opens at 07:30, and I got there at 07:45.

我是第一个到的家长，那种感觉特别自豪。

And I was the first parent there, and I felt so proud.

你知道吗，那一刻我感觉自己像个真正的加拿大人。

You know, I was like a Canadian.

我硬是从床上爬起来，拖着身子出门。

I'm like, I I dragged my ass out of bed.

我踩着积雪，抱着裹得严严实实的小家伙，成了第一个到托儿所的人。

I trudged through the snow keeling like a a bundled up toddler, and I was the first person to day over.

要是你五点四十五就到，刚接上孩子，他们立马就关灯锁门。

When you show up at, like like, 05:45, and then as soon as you grab your son, they just start turning off all the lights there and, like, lock in the doors.

那种感觉真不怎么样。

It's, like, not a good feeling.

有了孩子之后，你对扑克牌的看法有改变吗？

Has having children changed the way that you think about poker?

不只是它在你生活中的角色，而是你对这个游戏本身的想法，你知道的，有没有不一样。

Not just, like, the the role that plays in your life, but just, like, the way that you, yeah, think about the the game.

没有。

No.

其实也没有太大的变化。

I I don't not really.

没有。

No.

我觉得观察人们如何从最基础的原理学习，还有记忆这些方面，挺有意思的。

I I think there are some interesting things about sort of seeing how people learn things from first principles and, like, memory and stuff like that.

我的意思是，这其实关乎的是一切事情。

I mean, this is one that that I've it's more about, like, everything.

人们总爱说，小孩子不会记得这些事。

Well, people love when they talk about young kids saying, oh, they won't remember that.

对吧？

Right?

这根本不重要。

Doesn't matter.

他们不会记得的。

They won't remember that.

他们那时候还形成不了记忆。

They're not forming memories.

但我十二岁时的事，到底记住了多少呢？

But how many things do I remember from when I when I was 12?

你懂的。

You know?

我二十岁那年的事，又记得多少？

How many things do I remember from the year I was, like, 20?

没人会说二十岁的事怎么样。

Nobody says about, like, 20 or else.

他们确实在形成记忆。

They are forming memories.

我最近一直在想这些问题，从最基础的层面探讨记忆、学习、认识论，还有人们是怎么思考事情的，但跟扑克牌没什么具体关系。

And, like, I've been thinking about that in terms of just it's kind of these first principle type things that I'm thinking about about, like, memory and learning and and epistemology and, like, how people think through things and and all that, but nothing, like, specific about Poker.

对。

Yeah.

我在这方面算不上专家，但据我了解，这个说法挺靠不住的。

I'm I'm far from an expert on this, but I I my understanding is that that's a pretty dodgy claim.

即使人们没有形成有意识的记忆，他们的大脑和身体依然会因为所经历的事情而发生改变。

Even if people are not forming conscious memories, are changes that are happening in brains and bodies that are based on things that are happening to and around them.

我听说，长期以来，外科医生都默认病人在麻醉状态下不会意识到周围发生的事，也不会记得那些经历。

I think there's also been some stuff suggesting, like for a long time, surgeons have just been assuming that like when people are sedated, that they're sort of like not aware of what's happening to them, or like don't have any memory of what's happening to them.

但也有研究显示，有些人即使在麻醉期间无法回忆起具体发生了什么，事后仍会出现创伤反应，这显然和那些经历有关。

And like similarly, I think there is some evidence that people do have certain kinds of, like, trauma responses to based on things that happened while they were sedated, even if they couldn't, like, remember or tell you what it was that happened while they were sedated.

我觉得这些现象很可能属于同一类情况。

I think those are probably related phenomena.

是的。

Yeah.

至于孩子记忆这件事，我也觉得挺奇怪的，因为休记得，有一次我去托儿所接他。

Well, the the child memory thing, I also find weird because, like, Hugh like, Hugh remembers I was picking him up from day care.

我扔易拉罐进垃圾桶的时候，拇指被划了个口子。

I cut my thumb on a can of Coke as I was throwing it at the garbage.

当时我拇指流血不止，可还得去接儿子。

So now my thumb is bleeding everywhere, and I need to go pick up my son.

我上了楼。

I go upstairs.

我问他们有没有创可贴，托儿所的条件真不错。

I ask them if they have a band wonderful daycare.

我很喜欢他们。

Love them.

非常好。

Excellent.