ALERT: 2027 Will Be A "Disaster" For Both Stocks & Bonds | Michael Pento

2027年将会是一个非常……

2027 is gonna be a very...

对股市和债市来说，应该是非常艰难的一年。

Should be a very difficult year for the stock market and in the bond market.

2027年不出现灾难的可能性很小，但极有可能是一场灾难。

There's a small chance that 2027 won't be a disaster, but it's very likely that it's going to be a disaster.

欢迎收听《Thoughtful Money》。

Welcome to Thoughtful Money.

我是《Thoughtful Money》的创始人兼主持人亚当·塔格特，今天特别邀请到迈克尔·彭托来进行一场讨论。

I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you for a special discussion here with Michael Pento.

首先，迈克尔，非常感谢你来做客。

First off, Michael, thanks so much for joining us.

见到你总是很高兴，亚当。

It's always a pleasure to see you, Adam.

谢谢你，我的朋友。

Thank you, my friend.

而且这还是周六录的。

And and this is Even on a Saturday.

对，这是一次特别录制。

Yeah, this is a special recording.

我们特意选在周六进行。

We're doing it on a Saturday.

你从繁忙的周末日程中抽出时间来给我们做更新。

You're taking time out of your busy weekend schedule, to give us an update here.

你这么做是因为你的20模型——你在这个节目里已经给我们讲解过很多次了——开始给你一些新的信号。

The reason you're doing that is because your 20 model, which you have walked us through many times on this program, is starting to tell you something new.

而且你是个说到做到的人。

And you're a man of your word.

你上次来的时候我就说过，迈克尔，当你的模型开始显示我们进入新领域时，请务必来告诉我们，当然是在你通知了自己的订阅用户之后。

The last couple of times you've been on, I've said, Michael, when your model starts to shift that we're entering into a new sector, please come on and let us know, obviously, after you've let your own subscribers know.

你现在就是这么做的。

You're now doing that.

那我们不如……

So why don't we...

你想怎么聊都行。

Let's tackle this any way you like.

你可以告诉我们，这次你的模型发现了什么新变化。

You can tell us what your model's telling you that's different this time.

或者，我知道你想在开头先提供一些背景信息。

Or I know you wanted to provide a little bit of context here at the beginning.

我觉得我经常被贴上永久看空的标签，就像我和这个频道上的很多人一样。

I think I unfairly get painted with the brush, as do I and many people on this channel of being a permabear.

但事实并非如此。

That's not the case.

你是一个非常、非常依赖数据的人。

You're very, very data driven.

没错。

Exactly.

再次感谢你邀请我上节目。

And thank you again for having me on the program.

和你在一起总是很愉快，亚当。

It's always a pleasure to be with you, Adam.

所以正如我承诺的，我的模型显示……

So as promised, my model went...

所以每次我要么转向中性仓位，要么转向空头仓位，都是在……

So anytime I was gonna go to either a net neutral position or short position, was in the...

我给你发了邮件，说，嘿，情况变了。

I emailed you and I said, Hey, things have changed.

所以我上次这么做是在2021年底。

So the last time I did this was in late twenty twenty one.

那是2021年12月。

It was in December 2021.

我先是转为中性，然后转为看空。

I became neutral and then bearish.

而且我当时在你的节目上……

And I was on your...

差不多就是我开始上你节目的时候。

That's about the time I started coming on your program.

简单回顾一下，2022年对股票和债券来说都是相当糟糕的一年。

Just a refresher, 2022 turned out to be a pretty bad year for stocks and bonds.

说实话，我看空的时间比应该的更长。

In all candor, I stayed bearish longer than I should have.

我没有考虑到逆回购工具的抽水效应。

I did not factor in the draining of the reverse repo facility.

所以2023年上半年我判断错了。

So I was wrong for the first half of twenty twenty three.

但从那以后我一直保持净多头仓位，这一点在我多年来参加的众多采访中都可以得到验证，每次我最后都会说，我净做多股票。

But since then I've been in a net long position and that's verified by any interview, the plethora of interviews I've been with you in the over the years, I've ended saying I am net long equities.

我可以说，我长期看空的是这个经济的基础和结构，它建立在债务、资产泡沫和印钱之上。

What I have been, I would say, permanently bearish on is the foundation, the structure of this economy, which is built on debt, asset bubbles, and money printing.

而且我说过，总有一天会以糟糕的方式结束。

And I said it would end badly at some time.

但我总是会补充一句，看现在，我是看涨的。

But then I always caveat and say, look at right now, I'm I'm I'm bullish.

我是净多头。

I'm net long.

所以总会有一些喷子或者怪人跑到评论区留言说，哦，这家伙这些年一直在说这个。

So there's always some troll or mutant that'll go on the on the comment and comment and say, oh, this guy has been saying this for years.

我提前堵住这种愚蠢的评论，因为任何认识我的人，或者任何跟我一起投资的投资者，都知道我从2023年开始一直是净多头，但现在我是中性的。

Well, I'm obviating and precluding that asinine comment by saying anybody who knows me or any investor who's been with me understands that I have been net long in the market since 2023, But now I am neutral.

我还没有净做空。

I'm not net short yet.

我已经把投资组合中性化了。

I've neutralized the portfolio.

让我告诉你为什么。

And let me just tell you why.

如果你给我几秒钟，或者几分钟，我相信你和你的听众会对我说的内容感兴趣的。

If you just give me a few seconds here or maybe a couple of minutes, I'm sure you'll be interested in what I have to say, you and your audience.

当然。

Absolutely.

好的。

Okay.

那么，原因如下，一共有三个。

So so here's the reasons why, and there's three of them.

第一，美联储正在刺破股市泡沫。

Number one, the fed is in the process of pricking the equity bubble.

现在美联储在对抗通胀，或者更准确地说……

Now the Fed is fighting inflation or more...

更准确地说，通胀是货币供应量的增加，这会破坏市场对美元价值的解读。

Maybe more accurately, inflation is an increase in the money supply that that that ruins the the market's interpretation of what the dollar is worth.

也就是市场对美元价值的认知。

Its perception of the dollar's worth.

所以他们其实不是在真正对抗通胀，而是在对抗物价水平和物价上涨。

So they're not really fighting inflation as much, but they're fighting the level of prices and the increase in prices.

但这其中有三个因素。

But there's three components to that.

第一，伊朗战争；第二，关税；第三，基于债务的货币体系，以及由债务推动的AI投资热潮。

One, we have the war in Iran, We have tariffs, and we have a debt based monetary system and a debt fueled AI spending spree.

这三样东西正在推高整体物价水平，而物价水平已经掏空了中产阶级。

So those are the three things that are now adding to that aggregate price level that has eviscerated the middle class.

现在，美联储正通过提高联邦基金利率来打这场仗。

Now, Fed is fighting a battle by raising the Fed funds rate.

但提高联邦基金利率只影响第三个因素，也就是由债务推动的AI投资泡沫。

But raising the Fed funds rate only affects the third one, which is the debt fueled AI investment bubble.

它不会增加石油供应。

It does not increase the supply of oil.

它解决不了伊朗战争，也不会取消关税。

It does not solve the war with Iran and it doesn't rescind tariffs.

所以他们唯一能做的就是提高联邦基金利率，把那个靠债务推动的AI投资泡沫给戳破。

So the only thing they can do is raise the Fed funds rate to a level that pricks the debt fueled AI investment bubble.

我觉得他们就会这么做。

And I think that's what they're going to do.

这条路走起来非常危险。

That's a very dangerous road to tread on.

那现在，提高联邦基金利率到底会带来什么影响呢？

Now, what is the raising the Fed funds rate really going to do?

这会给中产阶级带来更大的压力。

It's going to put more pressure on the middle class.

那些最底层的四个收入群体，已经被压得喘不过气来了，就像我刚才说的，利率一提高，信用卡还款和房贷还款都会增加。

Those bottom four quintiles, which have already been eviscerated, as I mentioned already, is going to raise credit card payments, mortgage payments.

车贷还款也会跟着涨。

It's going to raise auto loan payments.

而且得连续多次加息，才能开始影响到AI的支出热潮，而他们正是打算这么做的。

And it's going to take many rate hikes, a multiple series of rate hikes to start to affect the AI spending spree, which what they're going to do.

而且别忘了，我们要明白，这轮AI支出狂潮，这种靠债务推动的支出狂潮，是M2货币供应量增长6%的原因，因为这是一个基于债务的货币体系。

And let's not forget, let's understand that the AI spending spree, this debt fueled spending spree, which is responsible for 6% growth in M2 money supply because it's a debt based monetary system.

亚当，所有盈利增长的50%。

50% of all earnings growth, Adam.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

所有GDP增长的50%和所有盈利增长的80%都基于这轮AI投资。

50% of all GDP growth and 80% of all earnings growth has been based on this AI investment.

这个AI，对。

This AI, yeah.

对，好的。

Yeah, okay.

所以这是第一个原因。

So that's reason number one.

让我说第二个原因。

Let me give reason number two.

我有几个理由要讲……

There are reasons I'm going to...

债券市场正在走向分裂。

The bond market is in the process of fracturing.

我想告诉你债券市场为什么会分裂。

And I want to tell you the reasons why the bond market is fracturing.

好，所以当美联储提高联邦基金利率时，那会推高债券市场的短期端，也就是短期债券收益率。

Okay, so while the Fed is raising the Fed funds rate, that's raising the short end of the bond market, short end bond market yields.

而长期端正在失去锚定。

The long end is becoming unmoored.

所以让我给你几个理由，说明为什么这是一个长期趋势。

So let me give you a few reasons why this is a secular trend.

现在收益率曲线的长期端面临压力。

There is pressure now in the long end of the yield curve.

我们都知道，通胀已经超过美联储目标六年了。

So we all know inflation has been above the Fed's target for six years.

所以我们有通胀这个问题。

So we have that inflation problem.

我们还有资不抵债的问题。

We also have the insolvency problem.

大家都清楚这一点。

Everybody's aware of that.

我们的债务与收入之比是720%。

We have a debt to revenue ratio of 720%.

好的。

Okay.

因为你永远无法……

Because you can never...

有个人上CNBS节目说，我们没有债务问题，因为债务只占GDP的100%左右。

I had somebody came on CNBS and said, well, we don't have a debt problem because, well, the debt's only about a 100%.

这个人引用的是公开交易的债务，因为那确实占GDP的123%。

This person was quoting publicly traded debt because it's really a 123% of GDP.

但这样一来，我们其实可以一直把GDP的100%都拿来征税，然后就能还清债务了。

But so we could always just tax GDP a 100% and we would pay off the debt.

但是亚当，如果你把GDP的100%都拿去征税，那就没人愿意去上班了。

But Adam, if you tax GDP at a 100%, nobody would go to work.

你有了

You've got

一个全新的经济。

a new economy.

我的意思是，这就是那个拉弗曲线的餐巾纸示意图。

I mean, so this is the art laughers napkin.

你看，你可以把税率降到零，结果什么都收不上来。

I mean, you can lower tax rates to zero and get nothing.

你也可以把税率提高到100%，同样什么都收不上来。

You can raise rates to a 100% and get nothing.

所以这里面肯定有个平衡点。

So there's some kind of calibration there.

我不知道，你知道，这个调整空间非常小。

I don't, you know, it's very small calibration.

你可以稍微提高一点税率，可能会增加一点收入；或者稍微降低一点，也可能增加一点收入，但你永远不可能得到GDP的100%。

You can raise it a little bit and then you might get a little more revenue or you could lower it a little bit and get a little more revenue, but you're never going get a 100% of GDP.

所以我们无法偿还债务。

So we cannot pay off our debt.

我们的债务是七...

Our debt is seven...

看待这个债务问题的方式是，它相当于收入的720%。

The way to look at this debt situation is it's 720% of revenue.

那是一个资不抵债的国家。

That is an insolvent nation.

所以你有通货膨胀，你有资不抵债，但还有一个新现象，就是外国债权人现在开始回避持有美国国债。

So you have the inflation, you have the insolvency, but you also have this new phenomenon where foreign creditors are now eschewing the ownership of treasuries.

这是因为诸如没收和制裁之类的措施。

And that's because of things like confiscations and sanctions.

他们不再想把多余的储备放在我们的货币和国债市场里了。

They no longer want to park their excess reserves in our currency and in our treasury bond market.

而且全球贸易整体也在萎缩。

Plus global trade has shrank as a whole anyway.

所以，一开始就没有那么多盈余可以回流到我们的债券市场。

So there's less of that surplus to be recycled into our bond market in the first ownership place.

然后还有日本央行在抛售。

Then you have the Bank of Japan selling.

他们抛售美国国债，是为了支撑他们那疲软不堪的日元。

They are selling treasuries to support their beleaguered and battered yen.

日元套利交易的核心，也就是借日元几乎零成本，然后投资美国国债赚取巨大利差，

The the the nucleus of the yen carry trade, which is borrowing in yen for next is nothing and investing in U.

美国

S.

国债，这个核心已经不存在了。

Treasuries for that massive spread, the nucleus of that is gone.

所以套利交易正在瓦解，因为现在，这基本上就是同一个观点：全球的锚定资产，从2015年到2022年，德国国债收益率是0%，日本国债十年期收益率也是0%。

So the carry trade is dissolving because now, so this is pretty much the same point is that the global anchors from German boons, which were 0% from 2015 to 2022, And the Japanese government bonds, which were going out ten years, 0% from 2015 to 2022.

现在它们都超过了3%。

Now they're above 3%.

德国国债收益率是3.5%，日本十年期国债收益率超过3%。

German boons are 3.5% and the Japanese ten years are over 3%.

所以它们现在和美国国债竞争了。

So they're competing with treasuries.

所以如果你要借日元，成本会很高，确实如此，再加上货币对冲的成本，你就不再会做这个交易了。

And so if you're, it's going to cost you a lot of money to borrow in yen and it is, and then you factor in currency hedges, you're no longer doing that trade.

套利交易正在瓦解。

The end carry trade is dissolving.

所以这些因素都在很大程度上影响着债券的长期趋势，或者说对债券收益率形成上行压力。

So those are the factors that are heavily influencing the secular wins or pressure upward on bond bonds.

我再补充一点，你能把它加到列表里吗？

I add one more to that to see if you can add it to the list?

请讲。

Please do.

这就是所谓的挤出效应，对吧，就是AI超大规模企业发行的所有信贷现在也开始跟国债竞争了。

This is what's called the crowding out factor, right, which is all of the credit that's being issued by the AI hyperscalers is now coming in to compete with treasury debt as well.

你要把这个加到清单里吗？

Would you add that to the list?

哎呀，你抢跑了。

Well, you're front running.

你跳过了我的清单，不过没关系。

You jumped over my list, but that's okay.

真不好意思。

I'm so sorry.

没事，那是因为你太聪明了。

No, that's because you're so smart.

我们真是心有灵犀。

We're simpatico.

是的。

Yes.

数万亿美元的AI支出正在与我们可以用于固定收益投资的有限资本竞争。

The trillions of dollars in AI spending is competing with a limited amount of capital that we have available to invest in fixed income.

所以我在给你这些理由。

So I'm giving you the reasons.

我们谈到了通货膨胀。

So we talked about inflation.

我们谈到了资不抵债。

We talked about insolvency.

我们谈到了债券市场，长端和短端，美联储在摧毁它们。

We talked about the bond market, the long end and the short end, the Fed destroying them.

现在，我的模型中的一个主要组成部分是高收益利差。

Now, one of the major components of my model is the high yield spreads.

目前高收益利差正在急剧扩大。

The high yield spreads are widening sharply right now.

那么，当债券市场和信贷市场开始承压时，会发生什么呢？

Now, what happens when you're starting to get pressure into the bond market and the credit markets.

这就是会发生的情况。

This is what happens.

人们看到信贷市场出现压力，他们的做法是涌向国债，买入国债，价格上升，收益率下降，然后他们卖出市场中更具经济敏感性的部分，其中最敏感的部分就是高收益垃圾债券。而这次让我觉得有趣又非常不安的是，亚当，信用利差正在扩大，而且在我们说话的时候，它们正在非常快速、急剧地扩大。

People see stress in the credit market and what they do is they run to treasuries, buy treasuries, the price goes up, the yield goes down, and they sell the more economically sensitive parts to the market, which is the most sensitive part is high yield junk bonds, which I find interesting and most disturbing this time, Adam, is that the credit spreads are widening and they're widening very quickly and sharply as we speak.

而且它们是在国债收益率上升、高收益利差上升的同时发生的。

And they're doing so as treasury yields are rising and high yield spreads are rising.

高收益利差上升得如此之快。

The high yield spreads are rising so quickly.

借债的成本上升得如此之快、如此急剧，以至于实际上导致了信用利差的扩大。

The cost of borrowing that debt is rising so quickly and so sharply that's actually causing the credit spreads to widen.

我觉得这非常令人不安，因为这种情况非常不寻常。

That I find very disturbing because that's very unusual.

通常你会看到信用利差扩大是因为国债收益率下降，而垃圾债券收益率上升。

Normally you'll see that credit spreads will blow out because treasury yields are falling and junk bonds are rising.

但这次两者都不是这种情况。

This is not the case with both.

债券市场正在出现严重的分裂。

We're having a big fracturing in the bond market.

而最终让我转为中性的是，我已经做了几个星期了，这周我把投资组合完全调整为中性。

And the final thing that got me to go to neutral, and I've been doing this for a couple of weeks now, I ended neutraling out the portfolio this week.

我承诺过，我说话算话。

And so I promised that I'm a man of my word.

我上了你的节目。

Came on your program.

市场广度就是未来。

The market breadth is future.

它现在有很严重的口臭。

It's got really bad morning breath.

所以，要给它一个数字的话，70...

So so to to put a number on that 70...

标普500指数中超过70%的股票都处于回调状态。

A little bit above 70% of the S and P 500 is in a correction.

所以，你知道，从52周高点下跌10%或更多。

So, you know, 10% down or more of this fifty two week high.

60%的股票下跌了20%。

60% is down 20%.

好的。

Okay.

所以，你知道，超过一半的市场下跌超过20%，40%的市场下跌30%，按照我的定义，这就是崩盘。

So, you know, well over half of the market is down over 2040% of the market is down 30%, which in my definition is a crash.

所以10%是回调。

So 10% is a correction.

20%是熊市。

20% is a bear market.

30%是崩盘。

30% is a crash.

所以市场的内部情况真的非常吓人。

So the internals of the market are really, really scary.

所以，当你把所有这些加在一起，亚当，我说过我会来你的节目。

So when you add all this together, Adam, I said I'd come on your program.

我确实来了。

I I did.

我把投资组合调成了中性。

I neutral out the portfolio.

我……

I'm...

我还没有净做空，我相信你肯定有一些问题要问我。

I am not net short yet, and I'm sure you'll have some questions for me.

但现在已经到了我认为风险回报比不再有利于激进做多的地步。

But it's it's to the point now where I think the risk reward ratio is no longer in favor of aggressively being long.

你的买入并持有60/40投资组合。

You're buy and hold sixtyforty portfolio.

到2027年，你可能会遇到大麻烦。

You could be in big trouble in 2027.

好的。

Okay.

首先，非常感谢你来分享这些，基本上是在你的模型变化的同时实时告诉我们。

So first off, thank you so much for coming on and sharing all this with us more or less in real time as your model is changing.

你说，好的，现在不再是积极做多的时候了。

So you said, Okay, now is no longer the time to be aggressively net long.

听起来你现在甚至都不是净做多。

It sounds like you're not even net long at the moment.

你是中性的，对吧？

You're neutral, right?

那么明确一下，你的模型是说现在不再是做多的时候了吗？

So clear, is is your model saying it's just not the time to be long anymore?

不是……

Not...

我不是那么……

I'm not that...

我是做多的……

I am long...

我是做多的……

I'm long...

我不知道你会不会问我这个。

I don't know if you'd ask me that.

让我想想……

Let me just...

我做多能源。

I'm long energy.

我做多……

I'm long...

我卖掉了我的黄金矿股。

I sold my gold miners.

我持有实物黄金，大概占5%。

I have physical gold, about 5% of that.

医疗保健、航空航天和国防。

Healthcare, aerospace and defense.

但每个多头都有对应的空头来对冲。

But every long is offset by a short.

这就是我说的中性。

That's what I mean by neutral.

所以如果你把空头和多头加起来，就完全抵消了。

So if you add the shorts and the long together, it's completely offset.

我还有短期国债和一到三年的国债。

And I have T bills and I have one to three year treasuries.

因为我现在说这话的时候是十月初。

Because I am now saying this is like me in, this is October, early October.

这就像我在2021年12月告诉观众那样，而且我是你节目里最早这么做的人之一。

This is like me in December 2021 telling the audience, and I was like one of the first person, the first people I know on your program to do it.

2027年对股市和债市来说，将会是非常艰难的一年。

2027 is going to be a very, should be a very difficult year for the stock market and the bond market included.

而且这包括所有期限的债券。

And that includes all durations.

我不认为下次经济衰退时，一旦衰退显现，人们会条件反射式地涌向收益率曲线的长端，但我觉得这种反应不会持续太久。

I do not think the next time we have a recession, know I there'll be a Pavlovian response to go into the long end of the yield curve once the recession becomes manifest, but I don't think it lasts very long.

我觉得不会很剧烈或严重。

I don't think it's very intense or acute.

会有短暂的条件反射式反应，去买长期债券。

There'll be a short live Pavlovian response to go into long term bonds.

但当财政赤字达到6万亿美元，而美联储又非常不愿意开始量化宽松、不愿意把利率降到1%时，那情况就更糟了。

But when your deficits are going to $6,000,000,000,000 and the Fed's going to be very reluctant to start monetizing and start cutting rates to 1%, that's worse.

你了解美联储的人，就像我一样。

You know Fed people like I do.

我知道作为美联储理事，现在作为美联储主席，他干得相当不错。

I know works pretty well as a fed governor and as now chair of the fed.

我觉得他不会那么痛快地就开始印几万亿美元。

I don't think he's going to come with alacrity and start printing trillions of dollars.

他会先让这个问题真正发作起来。

He's going to let this thing really bite first.

如果我可以补充一点的话。

If I can just add onto that.

我刚刚参加了一个私人投资者活动，主讲人是汤姆·霍曼，抱歉，是汤姆·霍尼格博士。

So I literally just came back from a private investor event that I was at featuring Tom Homan, sorry, Tom Hoenig, Doctor.

托马斯·霍尼格，他曾经是堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的行长，后来在伯南克时代担任过联邦公开市场委员会委员，和凯文·沃什共事过。

Thomas Hoenig, who was CEO of the Kansas City Federal Reserve and then served on the FOMC during the Ben Bernanke era with Kevin Worsch.

所以他其实和凯文很熟。

So he actually knows Kevin quite well.

他完全同意你的看法，迈克尔，他真的认为沃什是在试图划清界限，告诉国会：你们得把自己的财政支出管好，我不再……

And he totally agrees with you, Michael, where he really does believe that Worsch is trying to, draw the hard line to say, look, congress, you guys need to get your fiscal spending house in order, and I am no longer...

美联储不再是你们的后盾了。

The Fed is no longer going to be your enabler.

现在有很多人觉得，一旦形势变得艰难，美联储就会妥协。

Now there's a lot of people that think, when the times get tough, the Fed's gonna fold.

我们拭目以待吧。

We'll see.

但很明显，他的初始立场是拒绝。

But it seems very clear that his starting position is no.

我会和你们看到的鲍威尔、耶伦和伯南克的做法大不相同。

I'm gonna be quite different than what you saw with Powell and Yellen and Bernanke.

所以我们就等着瞧吧。

And so we'll see.

说到这一点，你知道，我忘了，听着，我现在63岁了，所以有时候会忘记把一些事情加到我的清单里，那些我试图为周一节目记住的事情。

So to that point, and this is, you know, I forget, listen, I'm 63 now, so I sometimes forget to add things to my list that I try to memorize for like a Monday program.

所以过去五个月，为了说明你的观点，也为了让我们的听众明白，

So the last five months, to your point, to illustrate your point and to our audience, make it very clear.

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期的最后五个月里，他印了2000亿美元的美联储信贷。

The last five months of Jerome Powell's tenure, he printed $200,000,000,000 of Fed credit.

他的资产负债表增加了2000亿美元。所以这意味着，为了让我们的听众明白，美联储凭空创造信贷，然后直接购买债券。

His balance sheet expanded by $200,000,000,000 So what that means, just to be very clear with our audience, the Fed creates credit out of ex nilo, out of thin air, and they just buy bonds.

他们去找一级交易商买债券，不管价格高低。

They go to the primary dealers and buy bonds, indiscriminate of price.

买债券，他们……

Buying bonds, they...

交易商就获得了信贷。

The the dealers get credit.

美联储把债券从市场上拿走，从市场定价的领域里拿走，这些债券就闲置在它们的资产负债表上。

The Fed takes bonds out of the market, out of the market pricing sphere, and and they're latent, laying fallow on their balance sheet.

嗯，自从沃什上任以来，我前几天算了一下。

Well, since Wuerst took office, I did the math the other day.

他上任是在，我记得是5月20日或22日。

So he came in on, I think it was May 20 May 22.

他上任了。

He came in.

资产负债表只增长了大约1.52万亿美元。

The balance sheet's only grown about like $1,520,000,000,000.

我，我……

I I...

它……

It...

如果我没记错的话，是……

If my memory serves me correctly, it's...

美联储资产负债表增长的速度已经明显放缓了。

The the pace of increase in the Fed's balance sheet has attenuated significantly.

所以他们从市场上吸收的供应量少了很多。

So they're taking a lot less supply off of the market.

这意味着市场，买家和卖家，卖家是财政部，买家是真正持有十年期或三十年期国债的人，现在必须去计算，这个国家到底有多可靠？

That means the market, buyers and sellers are now, the sellers being the treasury and buyers being the actual people have to hold a ten year treasury, a thirty year treasury, have to go through the calculations of, well, really, how solvent is this nation?

三十年后通货膨胀率会是多少？

What's the inflation rate going to be thirty years from now?

所以债券收益率上升，原因就是我之前提到的那些，再加上美联储正在退居幕后，不再充当这个政府及其债务发行的最大支持者。

So bond yields are going up for all the reasons I mentioned and the fact that the Fed is stepping away from being the enabler, the great enabler of this government and its issuance of debt.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

那么，如果这种情况真的持续到2027年，一旦出现问题，你觉得美联储基本上会袖手旁观吗？

So if indeed that that does continue to be the case as we go into 2027, if there is trouble, you think the Fed is largely going to sit on the sidelines.

它不会像过去那样迅速出手救市了。

It's not going to ride to the rescue the way that it has with alacrity in the past.

是的，就像你刚才说的，要加上那个前提——迅速出手。

Yeah, with that caveat you said, with alacrity.

我觉得当银行开始倒闭、货币市场冻结、回购利率飙到两位数的时候。

I think when banks start closing down and the money markets freeze and the repo rates go double digits.

更糟的是，那时候就会想，哎呀，得做点什么了。

Even worse, it's like, oh, gotta do something.

所以基本上，你和那些批评者一样，认为美联储最终会妥协。

So basically, like the critics, you think the Fed will eventually cave.

你只是觉得美联储的妥协点比大家现在预期的要远得多。

You just think the Fed's caving point is far farther out than what people are assuming right now.

没错。

Exactly.

而且即使我们有过……

And even though even though we had...

我们回到2007年，当时伯南克开始有所动摇……

Let's just go back to 2007 when Bernanke started blinking in the in...

我记得是2007年7月，当时有一些可疑的抵押贷款对冲基金，赌这些抵押贷款衍生品，这些基金开始承压，然后他就开始妥协了。

I think it was July 2007 when we had some, you know, some some questionable mortgage hedge funds, gambling on these mortgage derivatives, these hedge funds started to experience pressure and he started caving.

那是在2007年夏天。

And that was in the summer of two thousand and seven.

然后到2007年底，但那并没有阻止经济衰退。

And then by the end of two thousand, but that didn't stop the recession.

经济衰退从2007年12月开始，市场的大跌直到2009年3月才结束。

The recession started in December 2007 and the market carnage didn't end until March 2009.

所以我觉得你更倾向于奥地利学派那种自由放任、自由市场的理念。

So I think you more have of an Austrian laissez faire, free market.

他希望市场自己运转。

He wants the market to work.

市场会以非常负面的方式运转，压低债券价格，推高收益率。

The market's gonna work in a really negative way, send the bond prices down and yields surging.

而且我觉得他不会坐视不管太久，我是说永远不管。

And I don't think he's going to sit idly by for very long, I mean forever.

他会被拖入这场斗争，但就像我说的，他会不情愿地采取行动。

He'll be dragged into the fight, but it's gonna be, like I said, reluctant to do something.

所以听起来，迈克尔，你觉得2027年可能会很像2022年，但回调幅度可能还会更猛烈一些，因为2022年全年大部分时间都是那种缓慢的下跌。

So it sounds like, Michael, you think that 2027 could could look a lot like 2022, but maybe even be a little bit more violent in terms of the correction because 2022 was kind of a slow deflate throughout much of the year.

首先，你刚才点了点头，但你能澄清一下，这是真的吗？

First off, think you nod a little bit, but can you clarify, is that true?

你觉得那一年股票和债券的表现都不会好吗？

It's a year where both sort of stocks and bonds you think won't perform well?

对，两者都不好。

Yes, both three.

你还可以加上第三个。

You can throw a third one.

所以信贷泡沫会破裂。

So the credit bubble pops.

现在正在破裂。

It's popping right now.

这会摧毁房地产市场上剩下的东西。

That pops whatever is left in the real estate market.

房价还是得崩盘。

Still have to have home prices crash.

我的意思是，相对于收入来说，房价实在太高了。

I mean, there's just way too high relative to income.

这是有史以来最高的。

It's the highest they've ever been.

然后亚当，股市的市值还在GDP的235%左右交易。

And then Adam, the stock market's still trading at 235% of GDP, market equities.

所以这已经是在热层了，连平流层都不算。

So that's in the thermosphere, not even in the stratosphere.

这是历史的热层。

That's in the thermosphere of history.

我的意思是，正常的比率大概在90%到100%之间。

I mean, the normal ratio there is more like 90 to 100%.

所以我们还有很大的下跌空间。

So we have a long way to go down.

不过我要说一个例外，这可能会推迟这种情况，我也有可能判断错误。

And the only caveat I will say here, and this is something that could possibly delay this, I I could be wrong.

如果我错了，我会改变我的……

And if I'm wrong, I'll change my...

你知道，我会再次做多。

You know, I'll go go long again.

如果接下来两个季度，美联储能够停止加息。

If in the next two quarters, the federal reserve is able to stop raising rates.

换句话说，如果特朗普能结束伊朗战争，迅速大幅降低能源价格，那可能足以让美联储按兵不动，从而避免我所说的资产价格大调整。

In other words, if Trump is able to end this war in Iran, get energy prices much lower and quickly, that could stay the Fed's hand enough to forestall this, what I call great reconciliation of asset prices.

这是个很大的假设。

That's a big if.

我不知道这会不会发生。

I don't know if that's gonna happen.

如果你看看……

If you looked at...

我最近在看大宗商品，就是CRB指数。

I was looking at the commodity, the CRB index recently.

过去一年，CRB指数涨幅高达50%。

The the the amount of increase is a a 50% increase in the CRB index in the past, you know, year year over year period.

50%。

50%.

而且这些都是通胀的输入因素，不仅限于能源，会影响到方方面面。

And that's that's inputs to inflation that is going to pervade not just with energy.

CRB指数里有19个成分。

So there's 19 components in the CRB index.

它会滞后地渗透到整个经济中。

It's going to pervade throughout the entire economy with a lag.

所以我不太...

So I don't real...

我不是说这是...我不是在给自己找退路，我的意思是。

I'm not saying that this is I'm not I'm not trying to hedge myself what I'm saying.

我的意思是，27年不太可能好过，但很可能会很糟糕。

I'm saying there's a small chance that '27 won't be a disaster, but it's very likely that it's going to be a disaster.

好的。

Okay.

我觉得你的答案应该是肯定的，但我还是想问一下。

And I think your answer is yes, but I'll just ask it.

在你看来，不管中期选举结果如何，这件事基本上都会发生，对吧？

This is going to happen kind of no matter really what happens with the midterms in your opinion?

对，我觉得完全没关系。

Yeah, think it's totally irrelevant.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

这挺有意思的。

So it's interesting.

最近频道上有些关于债券的讨论，说债券收益率涨得又快又高。

There's been some discussion on the channel recently about bonds, that bond yields have come up so high so quickly.

有些人认为，债券不会像石油那样。

There are some arguments that folks have made that they're not going be able to kind of like oil.

高油价的解药就是高油价。

Cure for high oil prices is high oil prices.

所以他们说高收益率的解药就是高收益率。

So they say cure for high yields, there's high yields.

而且收益率会达到顶峰然后开始下降，现在可能实际上是买入债券、锁定这些更高利率的好时机。

And that yields are gonna peak out and start coming down, and now might actually be a good time to get in the bonds, lock in these higher rates.

如果未来一两年债券收益率确实呈下降趋势，你不仅能获得不错的利率，还能享受债券升值。

And if bond yields do trend down over the next year or two, you'll get the nice rate, plus you'll get the bond appreciation.

听起来你是在说，不不不，从你的角度来看，这太早了。

Seems like you're saying, no, no, no, this is too early from your perspective.

我不仅仅是说太早了。

I'm not only saying it's too early.

我是说你在购买什么期限的债券时必须非常挑剔。

I'm saying that you got to be very picky about what duration you're buying.

对，我在买一到三年期的国债，因为我认为两年期票据4.8%的收益率已经计入了三次可能发生也可能不发生的加息。

Yeah, I'm buying one to three treasuries because I think that the two year note at 4.8% is already factoring in three rate hikes that may or may not happen.

而且当降息真的发生时，市场已经消化了这个预期，然后美联储就不得不承认，好吧，你知道，没戏了。

And when they happen, it's already priced in and then the Fed's going to have to say, okay, you know, no mosque.

我得说，这行不通，我打算，我打算降息。

I got to, this is not working and I'm going to, I'm going to lower.

我不知道他会不会降到零，可能是一两个百分点。

I don't if he's going go to zero, probably one or 2%.

这里面有很多钱可以赚。

There's a lot of money to money to be made.

希望在收益率曲线的短端，长端我再说，会有一种条件反射式的资金涌入长端，但我不知道这种情况能持续多久，因为经济衰退时赤字会飙升200%、300%。

Hopefully on the short end of the yield curve, the long end I get again, there'll be a Pavlovian reflex action into the long end, but I just don't know how long that lasts because deficits go up 200%, 300% in recessions.

我们说的是6万亿美元的赤字。

We're talking about a $6,000,000,000 deficit.

我不确定，谁会买所有这些债务？

I don't just Who's going to buy all that debt?

这是新情况。

This is new.