All Data Now Points To A Housing Recession | Nick Gerli

市场的韧性其实在东北部。

The resilience in the market's really in the Northeast.

我们预测康涅狄格州上涨5.9%，伊利诺伊州上涨5.3%，纽约州上涨3.1%，新泽西州上涨3.4%。

We have Connecticut at a plus 5.9% forecast, Illinois at a plus 5.3, New York at a plus 3.1, New Jersey at a plus 3.4.

如果我们点进去看县级数据，你会发现我们对纽约市周边的很多地区其实非常看好。

And if we click into the county level, you can see we're actually really bullish on a lot of areas around New York City.

纽约市周边很多郊区。

A lot of suburbs around New York City.

未来十二个月的预测涨幅在6%到7%之间。

We have six to 7% forecasts over the next twelve months.

所以，房价走势真的取决于你所在的位置。亚当，我们评估的方法是看这些特定市场最近的升值情况、挂牌天数、库存和降价情况，具体到县、到邮政编码，对吧？

So, it does it does depend on where you are in terms of where prices are going and the way we evaluate this, Adam, is we look at the recent appreciation, days on market, inventory, and price cuts in those specific markets down to the county, down to the zip code, right?

因为这些指标能告诉你供需关系。

Because those are the metrics that tell you the supply and demand.

所以，纽约州奥尔巴尼上涨5%。

So, Albany, New York, up five.

百分之五。

Five percent.

奥尔巴尼有人看到这个可能会说，你在说什么？

Someone in Albany watching this would be like, what are you talking about?

现在房市正在下行。

There's a housing downturn.

所以，确实还是取决于你所在的地方，但再说一次，抵押贷款申请量同比下降了16%，二手房销量处于2008年以来的低点。

So, it does still depend on your area but again, mortgage applications down 16% year over year, existing sales at 2,008 lows.

我觉得大多数地区会继续走低。

I think most areas will continue trending lower.

好的。

Okay.

抱歉，我忍不住想问一下，因为那个数据引起了我的注意。

And sorry, I just got to ask you because it caught my eye there.

我觉得你预测里最强的州之一，如果不是最强的，就是伊利诺伊州。

I think one of, if not the strongest state you had there on your outlook, was Illinois.

是什么推动了这个趋势？

What's driving that?

对，这确实很有意思，对吧？

Yeah, it's really fascinating, right?

那我们来看看伊利诺伊州，到处都是红色。

So if we go to Illinois, look at all this red.

在预测地图上看到红色，意味着未来一年的房价预测是上涨的。

When you see the red on the re venture map, that means positive forecast when you're looking at our one year price.

看看芝加哥。

I mean, look at Chicago.

库克县，也就是芝加哥，我们预测未来十二个月会上涨6.1%。

Cook County, Chicago, up 6.1% is our forecast in the next twelve months.

北边的莱克县，上涨7.4%。

Lake County to the North, up 7.4.

西边的杜佩奇县，上涨6.1%。

DuPage County to the West, up 6.1.

我们在芝加哥的预测非常强劲。

We have really strong forecast in Chicago.

而且我们在伊利诺伊州中部到南部的整个州也有非常强劲的预测。

Also We have really strong forecast in Central To Southern Illinois across the entire state.

我们预测的是

You know, we're forecasting

这是不是制造业复苏的迹象，还是其他什么原因？

Is is this a sign of, like, a resurgence in manufacturing, or is it something else?

我觉得有几件不同的事情在同时发生。

So I think there's a couple different things going on.

我确实认为有一点改善。

I do think there is a bit of an improvement.

比如我们看迁移数据，看国内迁入伊利诺伊州的数据。

Like if we look at the migration, if we look at the migration in domestic migration into Illinois.

伊利诺伊州一直在流失人口。

Now Illinois always loses people.

但看看2025年发生了什么。

But look what happened in 2025.

它只流失了四万人，这是三十五年来的最好成绩。

It only it only lost 40,000 people, which is the best performance in thirty five years.

所以像伊利诺伊这样的市场，基本上不怎么建新房。

And so the way a market like Illinois works is like they don't build any homes really.

如果我们看伊利诺伊的建筑许可，你会发现只有一万八千份，占住房存量的比例很低。

So if we look at the building permits in Illinois, you could see only 18,000 building permits as a percentage of the housing stock.

建筑许可占比只有0.33%。

It's only 0.33% building permit percentage.

这个比例非常低。

That's extremely low.

差不多只有佛罗里达的五分之一。

That's literally almost one fifth the level of Florida.

佛罗里达相对于其住房存量，建房数量几乎是伊利诺伊的五倍。

Florida builds almost five times more homes relative to its housing stock than Illinois.

而且东北部和中西部这些地方，真的都没怎么建足够的房子。

And all these areas in the Northeast Midwest, they just don't really build enough housing.

伊利诺伊州排在很后面。

Illinois towards the bottom.

伊利诺伊州可能真的是倒数第一。

Illinois actually might be last.

让我看看。

Let's see.

倒数第二，仅次于阿拉斯加。

Second to last after Alaska.

所以伊利诺伊州几乎不建房子。

So Illinois builds almost no homes.

所以当你看到他们的迁移人数收紧，几乎回到平衡状态时，这实际上给市场带来了很大的收紧压力。

So then when you see when you see a tightening in their migration back almost to even, that actually provides a lot of like tightening to the market.

所以并不是说伊利诺伊州现在变成了繁荣城市，但他们确实不再流失人口了，而且他们仍然不建任何房子，再加上整体经济的通胀，这些都传导到了伊利诺伊州的房地产市场。

And so it's not like Illinois is a boom town now, but they're not really losing people anymore, and they still don't build any homes, and there's just overall inflation in the economy, and that's flowing through to Illinois' housing market.

而且，哦，对，其实没那么高估。

And, oh, yeah, it's actually not that overvalued.

我们只把伊利诺伊州定为高估3.9%，因为房价实际上还是和收入基本挂钩的。

We only have Illinois at 3.9% overvalued because the prices are actually still pretty fundamentally linked to the income.

所以这个市场并不算高估。

So it's not an overvalued market.

他们不建房子，人口迁移也不算好或特别好，但已经不再糟糕了。

They don't build homes, and the migration is not good or great, but it's no longer bad.

而且，这就算是最差的情况了。

And that's It's as bad.

没那么差。

Less bad.

这就是那个组合。

And that's the cocktail.

我想具体放大看一下。

And I just wanna actually zoom in.

因为我觉得你的一些听众可能会持怀疑态度。

Like, because I think some of your audience might be skeptical.

我想具体看看芝加哥附近已经发生了什么。

I just wanna zoom in on, like, what's already happened near Chicago.

比如芝加哥北区，已经能看到这种情况了。

Like, on the North Side Of Chicago already, look at this.

过去十二个月，价格已经上涨了12.5%。

Price is up 12 and a half percent the last twelve months already.

所以这就是……

So this is...

我觉得这可能是靠近瑞格利维尔的地方。

I think this is maybe near, like, Wrigleyville.

这里的房价已经上涨了两位数。

Like like, this is values already up double digits.

好的。

Okay.

这甚至不算……

This is not even...

现在这已经不是投机性的了，而且我们认为这种情况会持续下去，因为，Adam，就是没有……

This is not speculative at this point, and we think it's gonna continue because, Adam, there just is no...

几乎没有什么库存。

There's almost no inventory.

我们看看芝加哥都会区，看看这个。

If we look at the Chicago Metro, look at this.

2019年9月，市场上有4万套房子在售。

We're at 40,000 homes for sale September 2019.

现在只剩下1.6万套了。

Now we're only at 16,000.

芝加哥确实存在真正的房源短缺。

I mean, there is actually legitimate shortage in Chicago.

我承认房地产市场的主流说法，芝加哥确实存在真正的短缺。

I'll give the housing market mainstream narrative that Chicago does have a legitimate shortage.

只要库存这么低，房价就会上涨。

And so long as inventory is that low, prices are gonna go up.

所以这真的取决于你所在的位置。

And so it does really depend on where you are.

我觉得

I think

抱歉打断一下，但我们在开摄像头之前聊过这个。

And sorry to interject, but you you and I talked about this before we turned on the camera.

你有一个理论，我们……

You have a theory, and we...

我们之前在这里暗示过几次，但这似乎是一个很好的例子，你说现在美国经济正在发生一种集聚效应。

We've sort of intimated it here a couple of times, but this seems to be a really good example of it, that you're saying that there's an agglomeration force going on right now across The U.

美国。

S.

经济，这种效应正在提升那些教育水平高、专业网络广泛的大城市的吸引力和价值。

Economy, and it's increasing the pull and value of living in large cities with high education levels and extensive professional networks.

所以我想请你详细说说这个，因为我觉得现在正是时候。

So I just want you to expound on that, because I think this is the right time.

好的，谢谢你，亚当。

Yeah, thank you, Adam.

我觉得这是住房领域最大的趋势，但几乎没有人谈论它，对吧？

I think this is the biggest trend in housing that absolutely no one is talking about, right?

现在住房领域的主流观点还在说人们搬到得克萨斯、佛罗里达，还有像田纳西这样的地方。

Still the mainstream in housing still talks about people moving to Texas and Florida and, like, Tennessee.

但那种情况已经结束了。

It's like, that's over.

已经过去了。

That's done.

那是2010年代的事了。

That was the twenty tens.

那是疫情初期的事了。

That was the initial pandemic.

我们现在进入了一个新阶段，人们不再像以前那样搬到那些阳光地带州了，反而被吸引回我所说的传统一线市场。

We are now in a phase where people are no longer moving to those Sunbelt states in the same way, and they're now being drawn back to what I call the legacy tier one markets.

纽约、芝加哥、旧金山。

New York, Chicago, San Fran.

这些才是美国真正热门的房地产市场。

Those are the only real, like, hot housing markets in The U.

对，就是这些地方。

S.

现在，这些城市周边的都会区也很火。

Right now, the metro areas around those areas.

为什么呢？

And why?

因为这些地方有大学。

Well, those areas have universities.

还有世界500强公司。

They have fortune 500 companies.

这些地方的教育水平非常高。

They have an immense level of education.

而且想想AI对经济的影响，那真是天翻地覆的变化。

And when you think about what's happening to the economy with AI, it's a complete sea change.

特别是在科技、金融、市场营销和人力资源领域，三年前管用的方法现在都不灵了。

Like, especially in tech finance, marketing, and HR, what worked three years ago no longer works today.

人们不得不重新思考如何在科技、金融和市场营销领域开展业务。

And people are having to reinvent how they do business in tech finance and marketing.

所以，如果你必须用AI工具来重新调整业务方式，那么身边有一群聪明人，并且他们也在同时做同样的事情，这种价值是巨大的。

And so if you're, if you're having to reinvent how you do business using AI tools, the value of being around other people who are smart and doing it at the exact same time is immense.

另外，AI就像是远程工作的一个平衡力量。

Additionally, AI is like the counterweight to remote work.

你知道，远程工作从2010年代开始兴起，然后在疫情期间爆发。

So you know how, like, remote work started in the 2010s and then boom during the pandemic.

很多在金融、科技、市场营销和人力资源领域工作的人，接受了那些大城市里的远程工作，然后搬到了全国各地。

And it was a lot of people in finance, tech, and marketing, and HR who took those remote work jobs from those big cities and moved all across the country.

现在AI工具能做很多这样的工作。

Well, now AI tools can do many of those jobs.

如果你在这些行业工作，而且角色很单一，比如你只是个软件开发者，或者只是个文案，或者只是个平面设计师，或者只是个金融分析师，AI能做很多这样的工作。

And if you're someone who works in one of those industries and has a singular role, like you are just a software developer or you are just a copywriter or you're just a graphic designer or you're just a financial analyst, AI can do a lot of those jobs.

所以我觉得我们也看到远程工作减少了。

And so I think we're also seeing just a lower remote work.

如果有人想有竞争力，想真正进入科技、金融和营销领域，现在就得去那些大城市。

And if someone wants to be competitive and they wanna actually get their foot in the door in tech finance and marketing, you have to go to these big cities to do it right now.

我能插一句吗？

Can I just interject?

因为这点太有意思了，你刚才说的时候我就在想这个。

Because this is such an interesting point, and I was thinking to this when you were talking earlier.

这就像反新冠趋势。

It is like the anti COVID trend.

新冠期间远程工作爆发，那时候的感觉就是，拜拜了您嘞，公司老板。

In COVID, when remote work exploded, it was very much a like, smell you later, you know, corporate boss.

就像，我……

Like, I'm...

我们要离开这些拥挤的城市了。

We're we're leaving these crowded cities.

我要去乡下，去山间小镇生活。

I'm gonna go live out in the countryside, in the mountain towns.

那会是……

It's gonna be...

我要住在一个我真正想住的地方。

I'm I'm I'm gonna live in a place I really wanna live.

我照样能做我的工作。

I can still do my job.

当时所有人都预测城市要完蛋了，对吧？

And everybody was basically predicting the death of cities, right?

哦，那房地产在这些城市肯定要崩盘，因为没人非得住在那里了。

Oh, well, the real estate market's going to crater in all these cities because nobody has to live in them anymore.

然后一两年，或者两年多以前，我们开始有点不情愿地被拉回办公室。

And then, you know, a year or two, two plus years ago, we started having the kind of reluctant pull of back to the office.

现在，也许我没有新冠期间我以为自己拥有的那种议价能力了。

And now, maybe I don't have the bargaining power I thought I did during COVID.

现在我的老板逼我回办公室。

Now my boss is making me go back to the office.

真是个混蛋。

What a jerk.

然后你开始看到一些远程工作的人被拉回城市。

And you started to see some percentage of folks who were doing remote work get pulled back to the cities.

但现在看起来像是涌向城市的狂潮。

But now it seems to be like a stampede into the cities.

就像，求求了，先生，我能回办公室吗？

Like, please, can I come into the office, sir?

我想么学习并参与这场正在进行的AI大复兴，就像你说的，尼克，或者我只是想在办公室露个脸，别被炒鱿鱼，因为我太害怕AI会抢走我的工作了。

I want to either learn and participate in this massive AI renaissance that's going on, like you said, Nick, Or like, I just want to show my face around the office and not get fired because I'm so afraid AI will take my job.

这和五年前我们聊到的城市命运和城市房地产的话题，完全是两个不同的故事了。

It's such a different narrative about the fate of cities and the real estate in cities than you and I were talking about five years ago.

完全同意。

A 100%.

我觉得这……

I think it's...

你看。

Look.

我不是说远程工作就消失了。

I'm not trying to say remote work is gone.

它没有消失。

It's not gone.

在经济的一些特定层面，它依然存在。

In in certain layers of the economy, it's still here.

但趋势确实已经变了。

But the flows have certainly changed.

流动确实变了。

The flows have changed.

没错。

Exactly.

而这种流动的变化正在彻底改变住房市场。

And the flows changing is completely changing housing markets.

为了支持这个观点，我想展示一些关于租金的数据。

And just to support this point, I wanna show some data on rents.

这些数据来自RealPage。

This is data from RealPage.

公寓租金增长最快的市场。

Top markets for apartment rent growth.

我之所以关注……

And why I look...

关注公寓租金增长，是因为它有点像……

Like looking at apartment rent growth is because it's kind of like...

这比待售房源和房价数据更实时。

It's even more real time than for sale inventory and home prices.

房价还受很多其他因素影响，对吧？

You know, there's all these other factors that affect home prices, right?

比如卖家惜售之类的，但租金就是租金，对吧？

Like the seller denial and all this, but rents are rents, right?

比如旧金山都会区的公寓租金同比上涨了14%。

Like in San Francisco, Metro rents are up 14% year over year for apartments.

这说明什么呢？

I mean, what does that tell you?

说明现在那里需求非常旺盛。

That tells you there's intense demand to be there right now.

圣何塞呢？

it's San Jose.

上涨了9%。

It's up 9%.

有意思的是，弗吉尼亚海滩上涨了6.5%。

Interestingly, Virginia Beach is up 6.5.

奥克兰上涨了6.1%。

Oakland's up 6.1.

很明显，湾区比其他地方高出一个档次。

Clearly, the Bay Area is an upper echelon tier above everywhere else.

有意思的是，密尔沃基上涨了4.5%，但纽约上涨了4%，芝加哥上涨了2.8%，西棕榈滩上涨了3.5%，克利夫兰和底特律也进入了前十。

Interesting in Milwaukee is up 4.5, but then you got New York up 4% and then Chicago up 2.8% West Palm Beach is up 3.5 and you got Cleveland and Detroit rounding out the top 10.

那你那边有什么？

So what do you got there?

有底特律、克利夫兰、芝加哥、密尔沃基这些中西部市场。

You got Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee for Midwest markets.

有纽约，还有三个湾区市场。

You got New York and then you got three Bay Area markets.

所以你有八个，我称之为传统市场，都是财富500强集中的大都市区。

So you have eight, what I would call Legacy markets that are all Fortune 500 Centric metros.

现在我们看看拥有最多财富500强公司的大都会区，这也是来自Real Page的数据。

Now, if we look at the metros with the most Fortune 500 companies, this is also data from real page.

纽约大都会区真的是遥遥领先，甩开其他地区一大截。

I mean, York is just literally lapping the field, New York Metro.

大家都喜欢说很多公司离开了纽约，对吧？

Everyone loves to talk about all the companies left New York, right?

其实不是，现在仍有49家财富500强公司的总部设在纽约大都会区。

No, There's still 49 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in the New York Metro.

芝加哥有30家。

There's 30 in Chicago.

休斯顿有26家，圣何塞21家，华盛顿特区20家，达拉斯19家，明尼阿波利斯15家，挺有意思的。

26 in Houston, 21 in San Jose, 20 in DC, 19 in Dallas, 15 in Minneapolis, interestingly.

亚特兰大15家，旧金山14家，波士顿14家。

15 in Atlanta, 14 in San Francisco, 14 in Boston.

所以我，我...

So I I just...

如果你想了解经济中迁移的真实情况，看看这份财富500强公司名单。

If you wanna know what's actually happening with migration in the economy, look at this list on Fortune 500 companies.

再看看这份租金数据。

Look at this list on rents.

现在，哪些地方的租金在下降？

Now, where are rents dropping?

我们总在讨论租金上涨的地方。

We talk about where rents are going up.

那租金下降的地方呢？

Where are rents dropping?

圣安东尼奥、丹佛、夏洛特、坦帕、休斯顿、凤凰城、纳什维尔、沃斯堡、达拉斯、奥斯汀。

San Antonio, Denver, Charlotte, Tampa, Houston, Phoenix, Nashville, Fort Worth, Dallas, Austin.

所有这些疫情时期远程工作热门城市的租金都在下降。

Rents are dropping in all of those pandemic remote work towns.

我们想讨论的一点是，这些市场仍在大量建设新房，年度库存增长也很大。

One thing we do want to discuss is they're still building a lot of supply in these markets to with big annual inventory growth.

这些市场现在供应量更大，但相比疫情期间，它们的相对优势已经没那么明显了。

That higher supply is intersecting with just a lot like a lower relative advantage that these markets have compared to the pandemic.

这真的很有意思。

And, you know, it's really interesting.

我觉得如果你是购房者、卖房者或者投资者，这个趋势你必须得懂。

And I think if, you know, you're a home buyer or seller or investor, this is a trend you gotta understand.

因为我认为这将会影响房地产市场。

Because I think this is coming for the housing market.

这已经在发生了，但我认为未来五到七年，房地产市场都会受到这个影响。

It's already happening, but I think it's coming for the housing market the next five to seven years.

而且我觉得未来十年，房地产领域的赢家和输家名单，会和过去十年大不一样。

And I think we're gonna really see a different list of winners and losers the next decade in real estate than we had the previous decade.

好的。

Alright.

有点回到疫情期间的那种状态了。

Kind of getting back to how things were during COVID.

我之前一直住在湾区，直到最近，那里两三年半前就有故事说，主要办公楼以极低的价格出售。

I lived in the Bay Area until recently, and there were stories two and a half, three years ago there of major office buildings selling for a song.

大酒店基本上也是贱卖，卖家损失惨重。

Big hotels basically selling for a song, just massive losses for the sellers.

显然，现在情况似乎很快逆转了，尼克，我不知道你想不想聊这个，但在我们开始之前，我们看了一下纽约的一些价格和可用性。

And obviously, now that that seems really quickly reversed, I don't know if you want to do it, Nick, but before we hopped on here, we were looking at just some pricing and availability in New York.

你当时在看那里的酒店价格现在是什么情况。

You were looking at just like what's going on with hotel rates there right now.

就像你说的，那里有很多迹象。

There's so many signs there, as you said.

比如，现在完全是在蓬勃发展，我觉得不是所有人都意识到这一点。

Like, it's just totally booming right now, and I'm not sure everybody quite realizes this.

我不知道。

And I don't know.

我不知道这种情况能持续多久。

I don't know how long this is going to last.

也许两三年后，我们会说大家都离开了城市。我不觉得你认为这一定是最可能的结果，但确实从你所有的数据来看，这些……

Maybe in two, three years, we'll be talking about how everybody left the cities I I don't get the sense that you think that's necessarily the most likely outcome, but but it definitely seems from what you're seeing in all your data is that these...

回到我那个黄昏时分星星出现的比喻。

Back to use my analogy of of twilight with with the stars coming out.

这些像星星一样闪耀的城市，正吸引着大量产业和想要工作的人。

These sort of star bright cities are serving as beacons for tons of industry and tons of people who want jobs.

他们离开其他地方，来到这些人口密集、工作机会多的地方。

They're leaving the rest of the country to come to these very dense, very job dense areas.

是的，完全同意。

Yeah, absolutely.

而且，为了给你的听众讲个小故事，我这周计划去纽约。

And yeah, just to give your audience a little personal anecdote, I have a trip to New York planned this week.

过去三周我一直想去纽约，但去不成，因为每次打开万豪的应用程序想订酒店，都订不到。

And I've been trying to get to New York for the last three weeks, and I couldn't because I would open up my Marriott app and try to book a hotel.

我当时对酒店的价格感到震惊，现在依然很贵。

And I I was shocked at how expensive the hotels were and still are.

我其实住在城外，因为我就觉得，现在这价格太离谱了。

I'm actually having I'm staying outside the city because I was just like, this is insane right now.

你看，这些就是曼哈顿的酒店价格。

There's, know, the whole, these are the hotel rates in Manhattan.

再说一遍，理解这一点真的很重要。

Again, it's just so important to understand.

传统房地产行业总是喜欢贬低纽约、芝加哥，甚至有时候还有旧金山。

There's so much of the traditional real estate industry tries to dump on New York, Chicago, and still even San Francisco at times.

但当你看到这样的酒店价格时，你只会想，这到底是怎么回事？

But when you see hotel rates like this, you're you just say to yourself, what's going on?

万豪的庭院酒店，评分3.7，一晚898美元，10月27号到29号。

Courtyard by Marriott, 3.7 out of five, eight ninety eight a night, October twenty seventh to twenty ninth.

你根本找不到——我平时都住万豪。

You cannot find, you know, I typically stay with Marriott.

你找不到低于700美元的万豪酒店。

You cannot find a Marriott hotel for less than like $700

对，我看到上面有好几个都超过一千美元一晚。

And yeah, and I see several lift that are more than 1,000 a night on that

超过一千的有Westin，八百五十七的是Residence Inn，八百九十九。

more than 1,000 the West and eight fifty seven Residence Inn eight ninety nine.

Residence Inn是那种长住型酒店，一般客人会住五天左右，每晚八百九十九美元。中城的万豪庭院酒店，每晚八百八十一美元。

That's a residence in is a extended stay hotel where people typically stay like five days, $8.99 a night Courtyard by Marriott Midtown $8.81 a night.

这简直让人难以置信。

This is absolutely unbelievable.

而且我确实觉得，亚当，纽约。

And I actually think Adam New York.

如果现在让我选一个市场去买，我会选纽约市。

I had to pick one Market to buy in right now, it would be New York City.

具体来说就是曼哈顿。

It would be Manhattan specifically.

曼哈顿过去十年是不是经历了一次挺大的房地产调整？

Does Manhattan actually went through a pretty big real estate correction the last ten years?

曼哈顿的房价从2016年到2026年大概跌了10%。

Prices in Manhattan dropped about 10% from 2016 to 2026.

但还是贵。

It's still expensive.

买一套普通的公寓或者联排别墅要一百二十万到一百三十万。

One point two, one point three million to buy the typical condo or townhouse.

不过，当你看看曼哈顿的房价和租金、酒店价格的倍数关系，那真是离谱。

However, when you look at the multiples of prices to rents and hotel rates in Manhattan, it's absurd.

实际上，现在它是历史上最被低估的市场之一。

It's actually one of the most historically undervalued markets right now.

曼哈顿的房地产，普通人根本不会知道这一点。

Manhattan real estate, which, you know, the average person real estate would would would never know.

对。

No.

那太疯狂了。

That's crazy.

你之前给我看了一个数据。

And you you showed me a stat.

我想知道你能不能调出来。

I wonder if you can pull up.

就是曼哈顿的房价跟全国平均房价的倍数关系。

It was the multiple of, I guess, prices in in Manhattan to kind of average prices across the country.

我这就……

I'll I'll...

我马上给你看。

I'll show that right now.

这个……

It it...

这太有意思了。

This is fascinating.

这真是……

This is...

这个图表看的是曼哈顿相对于美国全国的房价倍数。

This graph is taking a look at the Manhattan to U.

嗯，就是美国。

S.

过去三十年的房价倍数。

Home value multiple in the last thirty years.

你可以看到2015年大概是纽约市和曼哈顿的顶峰。

And you could see in 2015 was like the peak of New York City and Manhattan.

曼哈顿的典型房价接近133万美元，真是离谱。

The typical Manhattan value is close to 1,330,000 Absurd.

而美国全国的典型房价是18.7万美元。

While the typical US value is 187,000.

所以基本上，纽约并没有真正受到上次房地产低迷的影响。

So, basically, like, New York did not get impacted by the last housing downturn, really.

但后来开始发生一些有趣的事情。

But then something interesting started happening.

纽约的房价在疫情期间开始停滞，然后下跌。

Like, New York's value started, like, stagnating and then dropping during the pandemic.

纽约在疫情期间确实下跌了，旧金山也一样，而美国其他地方却在上涨。

New York did drop during the pandemic as did San Francisco while the rest of The US went up.

现在曼哈顿房价是美国整体房价的3.41倍，只有2010年代的一半，也是2000年以来的最低水平。

Now the multiple of Manhattan to US real estate is 3.41, which is half what it was in the twenty tens and is at the lowest level since 2000.

所以在我看来，这进一步证明了现在纽约市房地产的价值。我个人不会感到惊讶，如果未来几年曼哈顿可能会迎来一波繁荣。

And so to me, this is further proof of just the value in New York City real estate right now and I personally would not be surprised if we could be on the precipice of a boom in Manhattan over the next couple years.

而且这些……

And these...

当纽约市繁荣起来的时候，你会看到它可能会疯涨，因为他们没有住房，库存真的很低，而且那里有那么多财富500强公司，那么多科技公司。

When when New York City booms, you could see it it can go nuts because they don't have any housing and the inventory is really low and there's so many Fortune 500 companies, so many tech companies there.

它可能会疯涨很长时间。

It can go nuts for a long time.

可能会……

Can go...

我是说，十五年以上的时间。

Mean, fifteen plus years.

没错。

Exactly.

它可以疯狂很长时间。

It can go nuts for a long time.

而且我不会感到惊讶，如果……

And I wouldn't be surprised if on...

我们正处于那个临界点。

We're on the precipice of that.

而且为了进一步支持这个观点。

And just to further support it.

比如，你有……

Like, you have...

比如纽约的公寓，像纽约的单身公寓，这再次，我觉得对有些观众来说可能很难理解，但我只是想说明一下，让大家都能明白。

Like, apartments in New York, like studio apartments in New York, which, again, I think for some viewers, this might be hard to relate to, but I just kinda wanna frame it so everyone understands.

单间公寓只要3.99美元。

Studio apartment for $3.99.

我知道很多人会说，哦，那太离谱了。

I know a lot of people would say, oh, that's crazy.

合作公寓的物业费每月1300美元。

HOA 1,300 a month for the co op.

这包括了税费。

That includes taxes.

税费大约6.50美元，维护费6.50美元。

It's about $6.50 for taxes, $6.50 for maintenance.

往下翻，你会看到Zillow的估值历史。

If you scroll down, you look at the Zillow value history.

过去五年下降了23%。

Down 23% the last five years.

Zestimate估值是40万。

Zestimate, 400,000.

租金估值，每月3900美元。

Rental Zestimate, 3,900 a month.

在纽约，房价与租金的比值其实非常理想。

The value to rent ratio in New York is actually great.

几乎达到了1%规则。

It's almost at the 1% rule.

我在纽约找到的许多合作公寓和共管公寓，意味着你可以获得接近10%到11%的总租金收益率，其中一些的资本化率超过6%，这在当今美国大部分地区是做不到的。

Many of these co ops and condos I'm finding in New York, meaning you could get close to a 10 to 11% gross rental yield, 6% plus cap rate on some of these, which you can't get in most parts of America right now.

可以，但在曼哈顿这种长期增值潜力巨大的地区，你就能做到。

Can, but you can get it in Manhattan in an area with crazy long term appreciation potential.

当然，存在政治风险，对吧？

Of course, there's political risk, right?

市长是个笨蛋，市议会也相当左倾，谁知道他们将来会制定什么规定。

You know, you have mom, dummy as mayor, you have pretty liberal left leaning City Council that who knows what kind of rules they install in the future.

现在还有房产税减免政策。

Have a pieta tear tax right now.

这个税只适用于那些拥有价值超过一百万美元、总价超过五百万美元的度假公寓的人。

Only applies to people who have owned pied a terres over 1,000,000 and over 5,000,000.

也许他们将来会扩大这个范围。

Maybe they advance that in the future.

也许他们还会采取其他措施。

Maybe they do other things.

但从租金、酒店价格、写字楼租赁与房价的基本面来看，曼哈顿和纽约市是美国最划算的地方。

But just the fundamentals on rental rates, of hotel rates, office leasing versus prices all says Manhattan, New York City is the best deal in The U.

对。

S.

好的。

Okay.

我想问你一个问题，因为之前问过你，但我想公平起见再问一次。

I just want ask this question because I asked it to you earlier, but I just want to be fair.

据你所知，有没有像佛罗里达那样的风险？那里的公寓价格很便宜，但有很多延迟维护和巨额的物业费要付。

To your knowledge, is there a risk like there is in Florida where condo prices are super cheap, but there's a ton of delayed maintenance and massive HOA fees that you got to pay?

还是说，据你所知，曼哈顿真的是更划算的选择？

Or is it a better deal, truly, in Manhattan, as best you can tell?

当然，那确实是个风险。

Well, for sure, that's a risk.

而且任何买公寓、合作公寓或联排别墅的人，都应该对业主协会、大楼的储备金、房产本身做大量的尽职调查，获取最新的房产状况评估。

And anyone who ever buys a condo or co op or townhome, you should do huge amount of due diligence on the homeowners association, on the reserves of the building, on the property, get a property condition, the most recent property condition assessment.

挂牌经纪人应该知道那是什么。

They should know what that is, the listing agent.

仔细看看。

Review it.

看看储备金计划、近期维修计划。

Look at the reserve schedule, the immediate repair schedule.

如果你不太懂，可以用AI工具帮你梳理这些，但要确保储备金是充足的。

You could use AI tools to help you kind of like go through all that if you don't quite understand it but you want to make sure that the reserves are funded.

你要看看大楼的资产负债表，确保他们有足够的现金储备来应对未来的开支。

You want to look at the balance sheet of the building and make sure they have plenty of money in cash reserves to cover future costs.

你还得问问，近期有没有什么大的翻修计划？

And you want to ask, you know, are there any upcoming major renovations?

物业状况评估能帮你了解这一点。

The property condition assessment will help you understand that.

你要留意的是，有没有什么大项目？

You want to look out for, like, is there some big thing?

比如，整栋楼的冷水机组、供水系统，或者供暖制冷系统是不是要更换之类的？

Like, are they going have to replace the chiller, the water system, or the heating and cooling system in the entire building or something?

这些你得注意。

You want to look out for that.

但除此之外，你可以围绕这些做做功课。

But short of that, you can kind of diligence around that.

如果你能选到储备金充足的好楼，就能在一定程度上避免那些突如其来的额外收费。

And if you could target the right building with good reserves, you can protect yourself a little bit from those surprise assessments.

但根据你看到的曼哈顿这些公寓的数据，情况似乎分布得很广。

But with the data you're seeing on these condos in Manhattan, it seems like it's pretty broadly distributed.

并不是说，哦，这栋楼价格很好，那可能是因为这栋楼有很多问题。

It's not like, oh, there's a great price here in this building, and that might be because the building has a lot of problems.

这是一个普遍趋势。

This is kind of a general trend.

我从你的数据中得出的结论是，如果你一直梦想在曼哈顿有个小公寓，或者你考虑过住在那里，考虑到这座城市的整体房地产周期，现在可能真的是买入的好时机。

What I kind of took from all your data was that, you know, if you're ever dreaming of having a little, yeah, you know, apartment in Manhattan to go to, or you thought you might wanna live there, this may actually really be a good time to buy in, given the general real estate cycle of the city.

我……

I...

呃……

Old...

亚当，你说得完全对。

Adam, you're totally right.

为了向你的听众展示具体数据，这确实是整个曼哈顿岛的情况。

And just just to show your audience, like, the hard data, it it is the entire island of Manhattan.

根据Zillow的估值，纽约县的房价在过去十二个月里下跌了12%。

You could see New York County is down 12% in value according to Zillow value estimates the last twelve year...

十年。

Ten years.

按实际价值算，也就是说，如果考虑通货膨胀，曼哈顿的房价实际上跌了51%。

In real terms, that means Manhattan is down 51% when you adjust for inflation.

这期间通货膨胀率是39.3%。

Inflation's been 39.3 in that span.

所以名义上只跌了11%。

So it was minus 11 nominally.

但调整通货膨胀后，曼哈顿实际跌了51%。

Adjusted for inflation, Manhattan's minus 51.

其他市场只有路易斯安那州那边跌得更接近。

The only other markets are even closer like in Louisiana.

有意思的是，华盛顿特区调整通货膨胀后跌了26%。

Interestingly, DC is minus 26% inflation adjusted.

布朗克斯区跌了27%。

The Bronx is minus 27%.

旧金山实际上下降了10%。

In San Francisco actually is minus 10%.

即使旧金山正在经历繁荣期，情况也是如此。

That's even with the boom going on in San Francisco.

价格上涨了14%。

Prices up 14%.

所以我也认为旧金山仍然被低估了，但你要小心那些在名单另一端的人。

So I also think San Francisco is still fairly undervalued where you'd wanna watch out for folks are at the other end of those this list.

那些通胀调整后升值最高的县。

You know, the counties with the highest inflation adjusted appreciation.

它们可能还有进一步下跌的空间。

They could have some more downside.

我们看到一些地区，比如田纳西州、犹他州、纽约州北部和印第安纳州，还有华盛顿州。

We see some areas actually in Tennessee, some areas in Utah, some areas in New York, Upstate New York and Indiana, as well as Washington.

哇，好的。

Wow, okay.

好的，那我们就开始总结一下。

Alright, so just starting to wrap this together.

交易方面，基本上债务已经死了。

We have transactions, basically, debt is a doornail.

越来越多的市场库存正在上升。

We have inventory in more and more markets rising.

听起来在大多数这些地区，你认为必须让步的是价格。

It sounds like in most of those areas, you think the thing that's going to have to give is prices.

所以在越来越多的地区，预计未来价格会走软，可能会像你说的那样，缓慢下行。

So in a growing number of areas, expect softening prices going forward, probably in a downward grind, like you said.

除非出现经济衰退，否则可能不会出现大幅下跌。

Unless there's a recession, it's probably not going to be a big waterfall.

那会是一种缓慢的下行趋势。

It's going to be like a downward grind.

所以我们又回到了我之前的比喻，房地产市场就像黄昏，只有少数几个特别明亮的城市像星星一样突出。

So we're kind of back to my analogy of twilight across the housing market with a couple of really bright cities standing out as stars.

它们会继续吸收需求，在可预见的未来，这些城市应该会表现得相当不错，就你目前能判断的而言。

They're going to continue to keep hoovering up demand, and those should do quite well for the foreseeable future, as best you can tell.

但也不是要继续打击全国其他正在暗淡的地区。

But not to kind of still beat on the rest of the country that's dimming.

除了从新冠疫情造成的各种扭曲中恢复正常之外，整个国家还面临着一个与命运相约的时刻。

In addition to just normalizing from all the distortions of COVID, there also is kind of a date with destiny that that the country has in general.

那就是人口结构方面的。

That's a demographic one.

你和我过去谈过这个，但我很想听听你最新的想法。

And you and I have talked about this in the past but I'd love for you to give your your your updated thoughts on it.

各位，我在这里要说的是婴儿潮一代的大规模离世。

And what I'm talking about here folks is is the great boomer die off.

我想不出更好的说法了。

I can't think of a really better way to say it.

一个更温和的说法。

A kinder way to say it.

但是我们将会有很大一部分人口要进养老院或者墓地，这些房产会进入市场，很多时候继承人只想卖掉然后分钱。

But we're just going to have a big chunk of the population that are going to be going off to the nursing home or the cemetery and that inventory is going to come on market and in a lot of cases, the heirs are just going to want to sell it and split split the proceeds.

与此同时，我们的出生率基本上处于历史最低点。

At the same time, our birth rate is basically the lowest it's been.

而且至少目前，我们已经堵住了非法移民流入的渠道。

And for the time being, at least, we've shut off at least the illegal immigration inflows into the country.

至于合法移民未来会怎样，我们拭目以待。

We'll see what's going to happen going forward with legal immigration.

所以我们确实面临着一个人口定时炸弹。

So we do seem to have this demographic time bomb ahead of us.

我和几位不同的房地产分析师聊过，尼克，我不太记得你在这个问题上的立场，也许你能说明一下。

And I've talked to a couple of different housing analysts, Nick, and I can't remember where you stand on here, so maybe you can clarify.

我和他们讨论这个问题已经很久了。

I've been talking about this with them for a long time.

越来越多的人开始说，嘿，我觉得那个定时炸弹不会在十年内爆炸。

And more and more of them are saying, hey, I don't think that time bomb's going off in ten years.

我觉得我们已经开始看到它的初步结果了。

I think we're already starting to begin to see the initial results of it.

而且随着时间推移，这些结果只会越来越明显。

They're just going to get more pronounced as we go along from here.

你对此最新的看法是什么？

What is your latest thinking on all this?

人口悬崖这个问题，我们已经迈过去了。

So the demographic cliff is one that we've already stepped off.

而且我觉得至少未来二十年，没有回头路可走。

And I don't think there's any going back, at least from the next twenty years.

这会彻底改变房地产市场，而且已经在改变了，我觉得这是挡不住的。

And this is something that's gonna dramatically reshape the housing market, already is reshaping the housing market, and I don't think it can be stopped.

你提到的这两个趋势交汇在一起，出生率下降，死亡率上升。

And those two trends intersecting that you discussed, lower births, higher deaths.

简单的数学问题。

Simple math.

我们的人口自然增长率正在降到历史最低水平。

Our organic population growth is slowing to the lowest level we've ever seen.

到2033年、2034年，我们Reventure预测美国死亡人数将超过出生人数。

By 2033, 2034, we at Reventure are forecasting there will be more deaths than births in The U.

美国。

S.

离那个时间点其实也不远了。

We're not even that far off from that.

一旦发生这种情况，市场上会出现更多房源。

When that happens, you're going to see more supply on the market.

需求也会下降。

You're going to see lower demand.

但实际上，我们已经看到这种情况在发生了，对吧？

But in fact, we're already seeing that happen, right?

因为过去二十年出生率一直在下降，这意味着想买房的家庭越来越少。

Because births have been going down the last twenty years, which means fewer families looking to buy homes.

不过，最重要的一点是，我觉得很多人都不明白，我想给你们看的是，首先，怎么……

The big thing, though, I I I just don't think a lot of people understand that I wanna show you is, first of all, how...

就像你说的，现在主流房地产市场也开始承认这一点了。

To your point, the mainstream housing market is now admitting this.

这是彭博社七月的一篇文章。

This was an article from Bloomberg from July.

低出生率可能在未来十年导致美国……

Low birth rate risks creating U.

……出现住房过剩。

S.

……出现住房过剩。

Housing glut over coming decade.

我当时看到彭博社发这个还挺惊讶的，他们居然在讨论抵押贷款银行家协会的一份新白皮书。

I was kind of like shocked to see this, on Bloomberg, and they're actually talking about a new white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

抵押贷款银行家协会就是那个代表抵押贷款经纪人的行业协会。

The Mortgage Bankers Association is that trade association that represents mortgage brokers.

他们说从2030年开始，美国的死亡人数将超过出生人数。

They say starting in two thousand and thirty deaths in The U.

美国

S.

死亡人数将超过出生人数。

Will outnumber births.

哇，这真是

Wow, and this is to

跟大家说清楚，MBA，他们，他们总是看好房市的人，对吧？

be clear to folks, the MBA, they're they, it's always sunny in the housing market people, right?

嗯，我不太确定。

Well, I don't know for sure.

我之前没太关注他们的白皮书，但这份白皮书绝对不是乐观的。

Know, I, you know, I haven't paid too much attention to their white papers before, but certainly this white paper is not an always sunny.

对，看看这个。

Yeah, it's look at this.

如果建筑活动持续保持高位，供应增长可能会超过需求增长，从而压低房价。

If construction remains elevated supply growth could outpace demand growth pushing home prices lower.

这是抵押贷款银行家协会说的。

This is the Mortgage Bankers Association saying this.

所以这不再是某个边缘的房地产市场分析了。

So this isn't, you know, this is not just some fringe housing market analysis anymore.

这已经进入主流视野了。

This is happening in the mainstream.

但亚当，我想让你的用户和观众注意的是这张图，对吧？

But what I think what I want your users and viewers to pay attention to Adam is this graph, right?

出生率，就是那条绿线，基本上是我们计算的，简单来说就是出生人数除以总人口。

The birth rate, the green line, which is basically we calculated revenge or simply birth divided by population.

1991年，这个比例是1.64%。

In 1991, it was 1.64%.

所以我们的出生人口增长了1.64%，而死亡人口减少了0.85%。

So we grew our population 1.64 through births, and we lost 0.85% through deaths.

所以我们当时有一个很大的差距，这是积极的。

So we had a big gap, which was a positive.

这是自然的人口增长，对吧？

This was organic population growth, right?

但接下来看看这个。

But then look at this.

从那以后，你会看到出生率一直在下降，下降，再下降，这有几个不同的原因。

Since then, you're to see the birth rate dropping, dropping and dropping, and that's due for a couple different reasons.

生育率降低了。

There's lower fertility.

18到45岁或50岁女性的生育率急剧下降。

The fertility rate of women, 18 to 45 or 50 is dropped precipitously.

但除此之外，还有老龄化的问题。

But in addition, there's also just aging.

老龄化正在发生。

Aging is occurring.

我们65岁以上和75岁以上的人口比以往任何时候都多。

We have more people over the age of 65 and over the age of 75 than we ever have.

所以自然增长率会放缓。

So naturally the growth rate will slow.

我们预计到2034年，死亡率将超过出生率，这将彻底改变住房市场。

And we think by 2034, the death rate will cross the birth rate, which is going to completely shift the housing.

这也会改变整个经济。

I mean, that's going to change everything in the economy too.

那只有七年时间了。

I mean, that's only seven years away.

这就是为什么强调，甚至不到十年。

That's why underscore, it's not even a decade away.

不。

No.

顺便说一句，抵押贷款银行家协会说是2030年。

And by the way, the Mortgage Bankers Association saying it's 2030.

所以按抵押贷款银行家协会的说法，这几乎就是三年后的事了。

So the Mortgage Bankers Association saying it's almost like three years away.

还有一件事我想让大家明白，因为我觉得人们五到七年前就开始听到这种说法了，但房价一直在涨，所以他们就不当回事了。

And the other thing I want everyone to understand because like again, I think people are they started hearing this narrative five to seven years ago, and then prices kept going up, so they discount it.

但现在我们正处在这个过程当中，而且未来五到十年还会加速。

But we are in the midst of it, and it will just accelerate the next five to ten years.

你怎么知道呢？看这张图。

And how you know why is this graph?

这张图比较的是美国75岁老人的数量，红线，和55到64岁的人数。

This graph is comparing the number of 75 year olds in The US, the red line, to the number of fifty five to sixty four year olds.

所以这是把75岁，也就是基本上在家养老的年龄，对吧？

So this is comparing the age of 75, which is basically aging in place, right?

和55到64岁，也就是退休初期到中期，进行比较。

To fifty five to sixty four, which is early to mid retirement.

看看……

Look at...

我们先从早期到中期退休阶段说起。

Let's start with the early to mid retirement.

看看2000年到2020年发生了什么。

Look at what happened from 2000 to 2020.

55岁到64岁这个年龄段的人口比例在美国

The share of fifty five to sixty four year olds in The U.

，

S.

飙升了。

Skyrocketed.

为什么？

Why?

那是因为婴儿潮一代进入了他们退休的早期到中期阶段。

That was due to the baby boomers entering their early to mid retirement years.

所以这个比例从人口的8.6%上升到了13.1%。

So it went from 8.6% of the population to 13.1.

不过，现在看看正在发生什么。

However, now look at what's happening.

55到64岁人群的比例正在下降，因为婴儿潮一代现在转向75岁。

The share of fifty five to sixty four year olds is dropping As the baby boomers now shift to 75.

所以这里会有两股力量在挤压。

So there's going to be two forces squeezing here.

一股是75岁以上人口在爆炸式增长。

One is you have 75 plus exploding.

已经开始上升了，而且未来十年真的会直线上升，到2035年，75岁以上人口将占总人口的12%。

Already started going up, and it is literally going to go vertical over the next ten years to by 2035, 12% of the population will be 75.

一旦你开始超过75岁，每年的死亡率就会不断飙升、飙升、再飙升。

Once you start getting to over 75, the mortality rates each year just surge and surge and surge.

而且这又是无法回避的。

and there's no getting around that again.

人们喜欢说，哦，预期寿命更长了，但，好吧。

People like to say, oh longer life expectancies like, okay.

对，寿命是延长了一些，但这改变不了这个趋势。

Yeah, there's somewhat longer that is not going to outweigh this shift.

一旦到了80、85岁，每年的死亡率就会飙升。

Once you start, especially getting to 80, 85, the mortality rates in a given year skyrocket.

然后就会有人，那些在这里买房的人，会在这里老去。

And you'll just have people, you'll have the people who bought homes here aging out here.

2000年到2020年买房的人，会在2020年，或者说2025年到2040年之间老去。

The people who bought homes 2000 to 2020 are gonna age out 2020, or let's just say 2025 to 2040.

所以这对房地产市场来说，是个双重打击。

So but so that's a that's a that's a headwind on the housing market in two ways.

一是这条红线代表的供应增加，

One is higher supply from this red line,

二是这条蓝线代表的需求减少，尤其是在养老目的地。

Also lower demand from the blue line, especially in retirement destinations.

这是另一个大故事。

This is the other big story.

我发现没人讨论这个。

I see no one talking about.

有些人知道即将到来的供应潮，但与此同时需求也会崩塌，因为婴儿潮一代是历史上人数最多的一代。

Like, some people know about the supply wave that's coming, but it will also be paired with a demand collapse because the baby boomers were the biggest generation in history.

所以他们是历史上最大的早期到中期退休人群。

So they were the biggest early to mid retirement just generation ever.

X世代比婴儿潮一代少了大约20%。

Gen X is about 20% smaller than baby boomers.

这意味着未来十到十五年，早期到中期退休的购房者会比过去十到十五年少20%。

Meaning there's going to be 20% fewer early to mid retirement homebuyers over the next ten to fifteen years than there were in the last ten to fifteen years.

而就在那些过去十到十五年买房的人开始逐渐搬离他们的房子的时候。

Just as the people who bought in the previous ten to fifteen years are going to start aging out of their homes.

所以我认为这意味着，像佛罗里达、亚利桑那、南卡罗来纳，甚至田纳西部分地区这些退休胜地，

So what I think this means is that you have these like retirement destinations in Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, even parts of Tennessee.

未来十五年，这些市场要小心了。

Watch out folks over the next fifteen years in these markets.

这纯粹是人口老龄化的问题。

It's just the aging.

从年龄结构来看，这几乎可以说是必然的，虽然我不能说百分之百确定。

The age demographic suggested that it's almost I can't say it's a guarantee.

没人能完全预料到。

No one totally knows.

但我很难相信在这些市场里不会出现供应过剩的情况。

But I I find it hard to believe it wouldn't be a guarantee that we would see higher supply.

在这些市场里。

In these markets.

那问题就变成了：你要卖给谁呢？

And it becomes a question of who are you gonna sell to?

如果100%的人都想卖房，但可能只有80%的买家会出现，那剩下20%的人就只能碰运气了。

If there's 100% of you that want to sell, but only 80 buyers potentially who can show up, 20% of people are just going to be out of luck.

需求就是不够。

It's just not going to be demand.

这又是个很好的观点，对吧？

Which is another great point, right?

所以反对这个观点的人会说，哎呀，不是的，有那么多Z世代和千禧一代想买房，他们会把库存都消化掉的。

So the counterargument to this is like, oh, well, no, there's all these Gen Zs and Millennials who want to buy and they'll just mop up all of the inventory.

这种说法有两个地方不对。

And that's incorrect in two ways.

首先，你说得对，从区域来看。

First of all, yes, your point regionally.

我们刚刚在这个Three Venture应用上添加了相关数据。

So we actually just added data on this three venture app.

我想你的很多观众会喜欢这些数据。

I think a lot of your viewers would enjoy this data.

这些数据非常重要。

It's very important.

我们正在看各州75岁以上房主所占的比例。

We're looking at the share of 75 plus homeowners by state.

比如说，有多少房主年龄超过75岁？

Like, so how many of the homeowners are over the age of 75?

然后你可以看到老年人都在哪里。

And you can see Where the old people?

这就是这个数据要说的。

That's what this says.

拥有房产的老年人都在哪里？

Where are the old people who own homes?

佛罗里达州，18.7%。

It's Florida, 18.7%.

实际上，夏威夷排第一，21.5%。

Actually, Hawaii is number one, 21.5%.

夏威夷要小心了。

Watch out in Hawaii.

夏威夷、佛罗里达、亚利桑那，对吧？

Hawaii, Florida, Arizona, right?

现在有些人会说，佛罗里达一直都很老。

And now some people like to say like, oh, Florida's always been old.

但以前不是这样的。

Not like this.

二十年前只有15.3%。

Twenty years ago is only 15.3%.

哇，房主们。

Wow, homeowners.

现在是19。

It's 19.

这种老龄化趋势正在影响每一个……

This aging trend is impacting every...

它好像改变了各地的人口结构。

It's like shifted the demographic scope everywhere.

那人们对此有什么反应呢？

Now, what do people then say in response?

顺便说一下，如果我们点进佛罗里达，某些都会区真的很典型，比如那不勒斯，现在75岁以上的房主占了29%。

And by the way, if we click into Florida, certain metros are just really like Naples, 29% of homeowners today are over the 75.

天哪，差不多三分之一了，还有北港、萨拉索塔港、圣露西、塞巴斯蒂安这些地方。

Gosh, like one third almost Northport, Sarasota Port, St.

露西，塞巴斯蒂安。

Lucie, Sebastian.

在佛罗里达这些市场，未来十到十五年。

I mean, out in these markets in Florida, the next ten, fifteen years.

这就是我看空佛罗里达的原因之一。

It's one reason why I'm bearish on Florida.

我觉得，虽然现在有初步的调整，但我看不出佛罗里达，特别是这些退休目的地，怎么躲过这波人口结构的变化。

Like I, there's the initial correction happening, but I don't see how Florida Dodges, particularly these retirement destinations in Florida Dodge this demographic freight train.

但看看我们做了什么，亚当。

But look at what we did, Adam.

我们加了一个指标，比较75岁以上房主和25到44岁租房者的比例。

We added a metric comparing the share of 75 plus owners to twenty five to forty four year old renters.