Bonds To Reverse Soon As Yields Approach 'Line In The Sand'? Michael Lebowitz

我是说，你有很多投资组合，但主要还是那个60/40的。

I mean, you've got lots of portfolios, but you've got the main sixtyforty.

那是

That's

40。

40.

对，没错。

And it's got right.

现在里面大概有10%的现金。

Now there is about 10% cash in there.

还有20年期的债券，以及短期债券和抵押贷款，实际上。

And there's a twenty year bond, and there's shorter term bonds and mortgages, actually.

我想看到技术信号表明趋势正在转变，我想看到市场叙事开始改变。

I wanna see technical signs that that the tide is turning, that I wanna see narratives starting to change.

我想看看美联储会怎么做，不只是现在，还有接下来的几个月。

I wanna see what the Fed is gonna do, not just here, but in the next few months.

而且我觉得我们还需要更多数据。

And I I think we still need more data.

这周五有CPI，周四有PPI。

We got CPI this Friday, PPI Thursday.

如果它们分别是0.1、0.2，我觉得0.2是预期的，那就是连续三个月通胀相对温和了。

That's if potentially they're 0.1, 0.2, I think 0.2 is expected, that's three months in a row of relatively benign inflation.

我们开始看到趋势了。

We're starting to make a trend.

油价又回到了90多美元的低位。

Oil prices are back in the low mid-90s.

虽然还有一些因素在推高价格，但同时也有些因素在压低价格。

There are still things pushing up, but at the same time they're pushing down on some prices.

所以我很好奇。

So I'm curious.

你会不会看着这些数据，心里有点盼着它们往某个方向发展？

Are you are you looking at things like that and almost kind of rooting?

对，没错。

Like, yeah.

加油啊。

Come on.

现在就让收益率因为这些非基本面原因走高，好让我们能以更吸引人的价格买入债券，这样等我们调整好仓位的时候，就有更多获利机会了？

Push yields higher right now for these not fundamentally driven reasons and let us buy bonds more attractively so that when we ride the right sizing, we'll have more opportunity to gain?

是也不是。

Yes and no.

我的意思是，我们已经持有债券了。

I mean, we own bonds already.

所以就像你买了一只股票，然后继续加仓，你不会盼着它跌吧。

So it's like if you buy a stock and you buy more, you're not rooting for it to go down.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

你知道，虽然你可能想以更便宜的价格买入，

You know, as much as maybe you do wanna buy it at a cheaper price

嗯。

Mhmm.

但你也需要确认趋势已经反转。

You know, you you you also want a confirmation that the trend has reversed.

而显然，现在还没有任何这样的迹象。

And obviously, there's none of that right now.

对。

Right.

这一点非常重要。

That's a very important point.

我很好奇。

And I'm curious.

假设你达到了那个水平。

Let's say you get to that level.

嗯，亚当，我觉得我更愿意在一个我们买入的点位，比如说假设收益率在4.5%而不是5%，但我们对从4.5%降到2.5%更有信心，而不是在5%的时候去接飞刀。

Well, Adam, I think I'd rather be at a point where we buy it let's just hypothetically say the tenure at four fifty versus 5%, but a lot more confidence that we're at four fifty going to two fifty versus catching a falling knife at 5%

或者5%。

or 5%.

完全有道理。

Makes total sense.

我很高兴你提到这一点，因为各位，这就是一个好的财务顾问带来的很多纪律性。

And I'm glad you mentioned that because, folks, that's a lot of the discipline that a good financial advisor brings into the equation.

一切都关乎风险回报比。

It's all about the risk reward ratio.

当你看到证据，即使你没有在最高点买入，但你对风险更低的信心更高，那才是你真正想要的，那才是你真正应该行动的时候。

When you see evidence, even if you didn't top ticket, but you've got much higher confidence that risk is lower, that's really, you know, what you wanna get, that's really when you wanna act.

所以我很想知道，迈克尔，我们在这里讨论的是买债券。

So I'm curious, we're talking about buying bonds here, Michael.

假设你看到那种情况，比如，我们认为我们已经看到了反转确认的信号，而且我们已经消化了很多我们认为这个交易方向上的风险。

Let let's assume you see that sort of scenario where, hey, we think we've we've seen confirmation that, the reversal is in, and and we bled a lot of the risk out of where we think this trade is headed.

你是只买债券，还是会做一些别的操作，比如用看涨期权或者杠杆债券基金之类的，这些可能比直接买债券本身规模更小但投机性更强？

Will you just be buying bonds, or will you be doing anything like, you know, using call options or a levered bond fund or anything like that that that might be a smaller but more speculative position than just the underlying bonds themselves?

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是，是的，这个我现在还不知道答案。

I mean, yes, I don't know the answer to that.

你知道，这就像问我三月份会买什么股票一样。

You know, that's like asking me what kind of stocks I'm going to be buying in March.

对吧？

Right?

我不知道市场会怎么走。

I don't know how the market will play out.

我们可能会处于短期收益率暴跌的环境，但通胀的说法持续存在，支撑着长期收益率，或者对美联储、财政部或赤字的信心不足，导致长期收益率被压制，那么我们可能只需要关注三年期和五年期的债券。

We could be in an environment where short term yields drop like a rock, but this inflation narrative persists and just holds up the long end of the curve or this lack of confidence in the Fed or the Treasury or the deficits that keeps the long end pinned, then we may just want to be in three and five year sectors.

我们可能想买公司债。

We may want to be in corporate bonds.

我们可能会想买期权。

We may want to buy options.

到时候会有很多潜在因素影响这个决定。

There's a whole host of potentials that will sway that decision when the time comes.

但你不只是局限于债券这个范围吧？

But you're not limiting yourself to the bonds only sandbox?

不不不。

No, no, no.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

我一直在问其他问题，但你这里还有几张幻灯片。

I keep asking all these other questions, but you've got a few more slides here.

我们要不要快速过一遍？

Do we want to pound through those?

是的。

Yep.

所以我们有个美联储会议。

So we got a Fed meeting.

实际上，这会是最后一张幻灯片。

Actually, will be the last slide.

另外两张主要是讲那些基本面因素，基本上显示就业和通胀的增长趋势其实在减弱。

The other two just kind of get to those fundamental factors that basically show that the growth trends for employment and inflation are actually weakening.

所以沃什之前一直比较鸽派，直到他在杰克逊霍尔讲话，两周前还是一周前，反正就是那时候。

So Worsch has been relatively dovish until he spoke at Jackson Hole two weeks ago, a week ago, whenever that was.

看起来他来了个鹰派转向。

And it seemed like he made a hawkish pivot.

所以问题就是为什么。

So the question is why?

这是在连续两个月的CPI数据之后，一个是负0.4，一个是正0.1或0.2。

This comes after we've had two months of CPI that was minus 0.4 and plus 0.1 or two.

通胀已经放缓了。

That inflation has slowed down.

而且在他发表讲话的时候，劳动力市场非常疲软，那个月减少了23000个工作岗位，这是最新的数据。

And the labor market was, when he gave the speech, very weak, minus 23,000 jobs for that month, the most recent data.

那他为什么反过来描绘了一个更鹰派的图景呢？

So why did he turn around and paint a more hawkish picture?

特别是，如果你看他的讲话记录，有一段话他详细解释了为什么他对通胀感到担忧。

And in particular, he made a if you look at the transcript, it's about a paragraph where he just goes through details on why he's concerned about inflation.

我在上面的摘要里引用了其中一部分。

And I have part of that quoted in the beige at the top.

54%的商品价格涨幅超过了3%。

54% of goods showed price increases above 3%.

他还列举了一些具体的统计数据。

And he's going on with some kind of specific statistics.

这就让人很困惑了，因为在他作为美联储主席的早期讲话中，比如在参议院作证时，他并不是为了获得职位而胡编乱造，而是在他成为美联储主席后，他确实说过他真正喜欢看的是这些修剪均值。

And this is where it gets very confusing because at his Senate testimony at one of his first speeches as Fed chair so it's not just BS ing to the Senate to get the seat, but he actually said it after he was the Fed chair that what he really likes to look at is these trimmed means.

基本上，你把美联储的数据砍掉，价格涨幅最大的和跌幅最大的都去掉。

Basically, you cut the Fed, the highest, the biggest gainers in price and the biggest losers in price.

他称之为粗略估算，就是那些头条数字，头条PCE，头条CPI。

And he called it rough swag, the headline numbers, the headline PCE, headline CPI.

而你看达拉斯联储的截尾均值，是2.28%。

And when you look at the Dallas Fed mean trim, that's 2.28%.

这个数字已经持续了四五个月了。

It's been there for four or five months.

所以你看，这不是传统意义上的核心，不像CPI、PPI核心、PC核心那样剔除食品和能源。

So you're looking at it's not core in the sense that CPI, PPI core, PC core is less food and energy.

而是中间那组商品和服务。

It's that middle group of goods and services.

它们的价格在做什么？

What are they doing in price?

PCE中位数是22.7%。

Median PCE is 22.7%.

核心CPI是2.5%。

Core CPI is 2.5%.

所以很奇怪，他拿了一个大约200种商品的篮子，然后试图做出一些概括性的结论。

So it's odd that he kind of took this basket of about 200 goods, and he's trying to make generalizations.

另外，你知道，我打算跳着说，但他提到了那些涨幅超过3%的组成部分。

The other, you know, I'm going to skip around, but you know, he talks about the components that are rising greater than 3%.

嗯，所有这些商品都是有权重的。

Well, all these goods are weighted.

那么，如果假设橙汁价格上涨了10%，但其他所有商品都没有涨，我们为什么要关心呢？

So why do we care if hypothetically the price of orange juice was up 10% but all these other goods weren't?

对吧？

Right?

它的权重非常小。

Its weighting is so small.

我们关心的是那些大件商品，而不是这些个别的项目。

We care about the big ticket items, not these one off items.

商品的数量其实不如它们的权重重要。

And the number of items is less consequential than the weighting of the items.

这有点像标普500指数。

It's kinda like the S and P 500.

对吧？

Right?

我们更关心英伟达、苹果或微软的表现，而不是那第499或第500家公司。

We care a lot more about what NVIDIA does or Apple does or Microsoft than that fifth five hundredth, four hundred and ninety ninth company.

它们在指数中的权重非常小，而英伟达占了8%。

They can they have so little weight in the index versus 8% for NVIDIA.

此外，很多美联储的研究表明，最近的通胀压力主要是由关税引起的，而且这种压力正在减弱。

There's also a lot of Fed research that shows a lot of this recent impulse is due to tariffs, and that impulse is waning.

所以，在贝森特进入债券市场进行更大规模回购的时候，他却发表这种鹰派观点，真是让人费解。

So it's just curious that he comes out with this hawkish view at a time when Besant is coming into the bond market with bigger buybacks.

对。

Right.

我们差不多要接近5%了。

And we're kind of approaching 5%.

所以我觉得他这么做是想放狠话，给美联储对抗通胀的能力增加更多可信度。

So what I think he's doing is trying to talk a tougher talk and put more credibility towards the Fed's inflation fighting prowess.

但问题是，这会不会只是嘴上说说，手里拿着大棒？

And the question is, though, is this just talk carrying a big stick?

还是说他下周三真的要加息？

Or is he going to hike rates on next Wednesday?

所以市场对这次讲话的反应是双重的。

So the reaction to this speech was twofold.

短期利率上升了，长期利率基本持平，你知道，就是比较稳定。

Short term rates went up, long term rates kind of flat to, you know, kind of stable.

所以收益率曲线变平了。

So the yield curve has flattened.

这告诉我市场有点相信他确实关心通胀，因为短期利率是由联邦基金利率驱动的。

That's telling me the market kind of buys into this, that he cares about inflation because short very short term rates are driven by Fed funds.

越往曲线远端走，越关乎预期的通胀和实际通胀。

The further you go out the curve, the more it's about, you know, expected inflation and inflation.

所以这就是市场最初的解读。

So that's kind of the initial take from the market.

我觉得如果他们加息，尤其是多次加息，他面临重大政策失误的风险。

I think he runs the risk of a big policy mistake if they hike, especially if they hike multiple times.

特别是因为市场实际上，就像我们之前说的，已经通过更高的汽车贷款利率、房贷利率、企业借贷利率等方式变相加息了。

Especially since the market has effectively, like we talked about earlier, has effectively hiked with higher auto rates, mortgage rates, corporate borrowing rates, etcetera.

所以这就是为什么我认为下周三无论发生什么，影响可能不会立刻显现，但我认为未来几个月会对债券收益率产生影响。

So that's why I think whatever happens next Wednesday will and it may not be immediate, the impact, but I think it will have an impact over the next few months for bond yields.

但再说一次，如果他出来表态但什么都没做，市场可能会说他对通胀态度软弱，那可能就会让十年期收益率达到5%。

But again, and if he comes out and they do nothing, the market may say he's being weak on inflation, and that may be what gets ten year yields to 5%.

上次我和他聊的时候，大概是几周前，可能快一个月了，不过他这周晚些时候会来，各位，达里厄斯·戴尔，他的默认预期是沃什会加息25个基点，甚至可能在今年秋天的某个时候再加25个基点，主要就是为了确立他作为鹰派的信誉，表明他对通胀是认真的，但实际上是想为2027年开始降息铺路。

So last time I talked to him, which was a couple weeks ago, maybe getting on a month, although he'll be on later this week, folks, Darius Dale, his default expectation was that Warsh was going to do a hike quarter point, maybe even another quarter point hike at some point this fall, Really just to sort of establish his bona fides as a hawk, and I'm serious about inflation, but really trying to set things up to start being able to cut going into 2027.

所以这更多只是一种姿态，对吧？

So this is more of just kind of like a flex, right?

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

如果你有一个默认预期，你的默认会是什么？

If you have a default here, what would your default be?

这就是在秀肌肉。

It's a flex.

但如果他真的加息，那就是真的把枪掏出来威胁了，而不只是展示一下他的枪和肌肉。

But if he actually raises the rates, he's actually pulling out the gun and threatening, right, versus just showing his gun, his muscles.

我不完全反对Darius的看法，他确实可能会这么做。

I I don't disagree with Darius that he may do that.

而且我觉得如果他真这么做了，他也会在2027年降息。

And I think if he does it, he'll be cutting rates in '27 as well.

真正让我困扰的是，这实际上是对供应冲击的反应。

What what really bothers me is it it's in really in reaction to a supply shock.

对吧？

Right?

在我们进入伊朗之前，没人觉得美联储会加息。

Before we went into Iran, no one thought the Fed was gonna be raising rates.

现在他们却在加息。

Now they're raising rates.

自伊朗事件以来，就业市场明显变弱了。

The employment market has gotten decidedly weaker since Iran.

而且，如果你把食品、能源和一些异常值剔除掉，真的没有迹象表明通胀在回升。

And, again, if you strip out all the food, energy, and some of the the outliers, there's really no signs that there's inflation is picking up.

通胀率仍然高于2%，美联储需要把它降到2%，这就是贝丝·哈马克的观点，她一直是比较鹰派的成员之一。

It's still above 2%, and the Fed needs to get it down to 2%, and that's Beth Hammack's case, who's been one of the more hawkish members.

我同意，他们需要把通胀降到2%，但要小心怎么降。

And I agree, they need to get it down to 2%, but be careful how you get it down to 2%.

我

I

个人认为他今年九月不会加息。

personally don't think he's going to raise rates this September.

我觉得这里面有很多政治压力，这个很难估量。

I think there's and this is hard to gauge a lot of political pressure.

我的意思是，特朗普当时都准备因为鲍威尔不降息而把他炒掉。

I mean, Trump was ready to fire Powell for not cutting rates.

那他对自己提上来的人——其实鲍威尔也是他提的——但如果是他新提的人在中选前一个月加息，他会怎么做？

What's he gonna do when the guy he put well, he put Powell on too, but what's he gonna do when his new guy raises rates a month before midterm election?

所以这里面有一些政治因素，我对它会怎么发展没有很好的把握，我们也需要考虑这一点。

So there's some political aspect that I just don't have a good feel for, how that plays out, that we also need to consider.

但市场认为他们加息的可能性有三分之二。

But the market is saying there's a two thirds chance they raise rates.

所以我们得假设他们会加息。

So we have to assume they will.

而且我觉得市场对此的反应可能会比较平淡。

And I think the market reaction to that could be muted.

我觉得长期利率可能会下降，长期收益率可能会小幅走低，而短期利率的变动则会根据市场对他们下一步行动的预期来决定。

I think long rates could fall, long yields could fall a little, and short rates will kind of base their movement on what the market implies about what are they doing next.

所以，如果他们觉得还会一再加息，市场就得开始完全消化这个预期。

So if they think that they're going to raise again and again, the market has to start pricing that in fully.

而随着市场完全消化这一点，我觉得长期收益率实际上可能会下降，所以收益率曲线会继续走平。

And as it prices that in fully, I think longer yields can actually come So the curve will continue to flatten.

我不太信。

I'm not sold.

我不太信。

I'm not sold.

我觉得他是在试图……我也不确定。

I think he's trying I don't know.

说实话，我也不清楚。

Look, I don't know.

但我觉得他是在放话。

But I think he's trying to talk the talk.

对。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

而且希望不用真的付诸行动。

And hopefully not have to walk the walk.

所以即使他说了，你看，我会尽量少沟通，但他还是会尽可能多地放话，如果觉得有必要，也可能不情愿地加息。

So even though he said, look, I'm I'm gonna try to communicate a lot less, he's he's still gonna jawbone as much as he's able to and potentially hike reluctantly if he feels he has to.

但你觉得如果他现在加息，明年就会降息。

But you feel like if he hikes now, he'll be cutting next year.

我同意达里乌斯的看法。

I agree with Darius.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这最有可能。

I think that's most likely.

好的。

Okay.

你刚才简单提到了中期选举。

You mentioned the midterms real briefly.

我记得你的叙事清单里好像没有提到这个。

I don't think I saw that on your narratives list.

但这也是一个影响因素吗？就是国会可能会怎么变化，这种不确定性。

But is that playing a role here as well, just the uncertainty of where congress might be going?

我觉得这个可能有两面性。

I mean, I think that one can work both ways.

比如说，如果看起来民主党要拿下众议院的话。

If you know, it looks like the Democrats are gonna take the house.

参议院目前还是偏向共和党，但民主党也有机会拿下参议院。

Senate is still leaning Republican, but there are some chances they could take, the Democrats could take the Senate as well.

所以我觉得如果国会两院分裂，或者参众两院和总统不是同一党派，可能会限制一些支出。

So I think a split Congress and Senate and House potentially being different from the president could limit some spending.

所以这个可能有利有弊。

So that may cut both ways.

但功能失调也不好。

But dysfunctional is not good either.

所以我没听说过，可能本来应该提一下的。

So I haven't heard it probably would have been one to put down.

我只是没听说过把它当作债券收益率上升的借口。

I just haven't heard it as an excuse for higher bond yields.

好的。

Okay.

但这绝对是一个重要的考虑因素。

But it's definitely a big consideration.

而且它可能迟早会成为市场的一个话题。

And it probably will be a narrative at some point.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

好的，感谢你来做客。

Well, look, I appreciate you coming on.

就像我说的，我联系了你，就说，嘿，迈克尔，你能不能放下手头的事，来聊聊债券收益率？因为我们收到了很多问题，关于你的债券展望，还有什么我没想到的重要问题要问你的吗？

Like I said, I kind of reached out to you and just said, hey, Michael, can you drop what you're doing and come on here to talk about bond yields, given all the questions that we've had about Is there anything else really material to your bond outlook that I haven't thought to ask you about yet?

其实没有了。

Not really.

我的意思是，你基本上已经涵盖了主要内容，就是那些叙事。

I mean, you kind of got you know, the the bulk of it is these narratives.

美联储接下来会怎么做，不一定是下周的会议，而是接下来的几次会议。

What's the Fed gonna do over the next not necessarily next week's meeting, but the next few meetings.

嗯。

Mhmm.

通胀会怎么发展？

What how does inflation play out?

你知道，我们周五会拿到CPI数据。

You know, we're gonna get CPI Friday.

我们还会看到，你知道的，另一轮就业数据，然后是更多的通胀数据。

We'll get, you know, another round of employment, then more inflation.

就业趋势是在变好吗？

Are the trends is the employment trend getting better?

那可能意味着要加息。

That maybe argues for a rate increase.

还是说那只是一个偶然的数字，之后会被下修？

Or was it just a fluky number that will get revised lower?

所以，我们现在基本上是摸着石头过河，一边理解这种分歧，一边理解为什么会有这种分歧，同时试着判断美联储和市场是会延续这个趋势，还是扭转它。

So, you know, we're kind of flying on the seat of our pants right now, understanding there's this divergence and understanding why there's the divergence, and just trying to gauge how the Fed, how the market will either perpetuate that trend or reverse that trend.

好的。

Okay.

我不想设定一个不切实际的预期，所以你可以随意补充说明。

And I don't want to set an unrealistic expectation here, so caveat this any way you like.

但再说一次，我听到你所说的背后有一个核心论点，那就是你和Lance仍然认为未来几年债券收益率会呈长期下行趋势。

But again, there's sort of a central thesis under what I hear you saying, which is that you and Lance still think that secular lower bond yields lie ahead over the next couple of years.

首先，我先缓一缓。

First off, I'll take a beat.

对吧？

True?

是的。

Yes.

不过这里有个小变数，就是人工智能。

Now there's a little complication to that, and that's AI.

对吧？

Right?

人工智能对经济有什么影响？

How does AI impact the economy?

会不会带来爆发式增长？

Does it create explosive growth?

会不会造成通缩？

Does it create disinflation?

我觉得答案是肯定的，它会带来增长，也会带来通缩，但什么时候呢？

And I think the answer is yes, it creates growth, and yes, it creates disinflation, but when?

现在，其中一些影响更偏向通胀，比如我们刚才提到的高端内存芯片。

Right now, some of it is more inflationary, higher memory chips like we talked about.

数据中心建设规模非常庞大。

This data center building is massive.

它占了经济增长的很大一部分。

A good chunk of the economy, economic growth.

那么，AI的好处什么时候开始渗透到通胀水平和增长水平中呢？

So when do the benefits of AI start seeping into the inflation levels and growth levels.

这很难说。

And that's difficult to know.

再说一次，Chad Jones的那次采访对这个问题提供了很好的见解。

Again, that Chad Jones interview is outstanding for more insight on that.

好的。

Okay.

好的，我会按照你的建议联系他。

Well, I will reach out to him, as you had suggested.

但就目前而言，你预计未来几年债券收益率会呈下降趋势，而不是上升趋势。

But right now, your default over the next couple of years is you expect bond yields to be trending downwards, not upwards.

我理解得没错吧？

I've got that correct, right?

对。

Yeah.

更偏向实际增长率。

More towards the real growth rate.

好的。

Okay.

那么，对于观看这个视频的相当大一部分50岁及以上、临近退休或已经退休、更看重收入和安全的观众来说。

So for the, yeah, fairly substantial percentage of viewers of this video who are 50 and older and are approaching retirement or maybe retired and income and safety become a higher priority.

你知道，这是不是应该关注债券和固定收益工具走势的时期，因为这里可能存在有吸引力的积累机会，这样，如果你的预期成为现实，这些人不仅能锁定较高的收益率，还能享受底层固定收益工具的价格上涨。

You know, is this a period to be watching what is happening in bonds and fixed income instruments because there might be an attractive accumulation opportunity here so that if we do get, if your default expectation plays out the way you think it will, these people will not only be locking in kind of higher yields, but they'll be able to also enjoy the price appreciation of the underlying fixed income instruments as well?

再说一遍，我不想夸大其词，但这是不是他们应该稍微多关注一下的时期呢？

Again, I don't wanna oversell this, but is is this a period of time where they should be kind of following this a little bit more intent?

我觉得他们应该关注，但我总是，你知道，作为投资者，你应该关注所有资产类别，并且应该分散投资。

I think they should be watching it, but I always you know, I you know, as an investor, you should be watching all asset classes, and you should be diversified.

但我认为这作为你投资组合的一部分是合理的。

But I think this makes sense as part of your portfolio.

它是否比昨天在你的投资组合中占更大的比例更合理呢？

Does it make sense as a larger part of your portfolio than it did yesterday?

也许这由你来决定。

Maybe that's for you to decide.

但这也是那种特点之一，而且你看，过去几年我们一直判断错误。

But this is one of those kind of traits too where and look, we've been wrong for the last couple of years.

你知道吗？

You know?

有一段时间是对的，但最近因为伊朗的事情又错了。

Right for a while and now recently wrong because of Iran.

但你只需要有一点耐心。

But you just have to have a little patience.

而且我觉得，如果持有债券让你压力很大，那就买五年或七年的债券，直接买实际的债券，告诉自己你会持有到到期。

And I think if it makes the stress easier of holding bonds, buy a five or seven year bond and just buy the actual bond, tell yourself you're holding it to maturity.

最坏的情况，你五年或七年能赚5%，或者差不多这个数。

Worst case, you're gonna make 5% for five or seven years or whatever it is.

如果情况不同，你可能会卖掉它们，获利了结，然后把钱投到其他资产上，比如股票或者其他什么。

If things go differently, maybe you'll sell them, take a profit, and reinvest into some other asset, stocks or whatever else.

所以我觉得，对待债券，你需要更有耐心一些。

So think you have to have with bonds a more patient outlook

我完全同意你的看法。

than I don't disagree at all.

再说，我想在这里强调的一点是，假设你的观点是对的，那么现在有机会锁定更高的收益率，未来几年相对更有吸引力，同时还能获得价格升值。

Again, the thing I'm trying just to sort of shine a light on here is, again, assuming your perspective proves to be correct, there's an opportunity here to lock in higher yields, potentially lock in higher yields, that'll be relatively more attractive over the next couple of years plus get the price appreciation.

同时，你提到过，CAPE比率和股票都涨到了40%以上。

At the same time, you mentioned, you know, CAPE ratios and stocks up in the 40 percents.

如果股市出现回调——虽然不一定会发生——但你知道，现在可能是个机会。你看看你现在的投资组合，可能会想，嗯，我是不是股票仓位太重了。

If there is a if there is a correction stocks, no guarantee there will be, but, you know, there may be an opportunity here to, you look at your portfolio today and say, well, maybe I'm actually a little bit too exposed to stocks.

可能已经赚了不少了，或者别的什么。

I've had a lot of gains or whatever.

我最近在这个频道上和好几位分析师聊过，包括Lance，我们都看到所有投资者群体的股票仓位比例都创了历史新高。

I've talked a lot recently on this channel with multiple different analysts, including Lance, where we just see kind of record levels of of, percent equity exposure in all cohorts of investors.

而且好像投资者年龄越大，仓位越高，这太离谱了，因为他们本该降低风险的。

And it seems to go up the older the investor cohort is, which is crazy because they should be derisking.

所以我想总结一下，现在正是时候，如果你最近没做过的话，坐下来好好看看你整个投资组合的仓位，问问自己：我是不是因为盈利或者追求风险，股票仓位太重了？考虑到我的年龄，也许我该落袋为安一些，开始考虑增加债券仓位，原因就是我们刚才聊的那些。

So I I guess if I can boil this down, I think this is the time if you haven't done it recently to sit down and look at your overall portfolio exposure and say, look, am I too exposed to equities because of gains or just my my reaching for risk or whatever and given my age, maybe I might wanna take some gains off the table here and start thinking about increasing some of my bond exposure because of the reasons that we just talked about here.

这不是一刀切的建议。

This isn't a blanket.

这当然不是个人理财建议，但我认为这是个值得大家好好聊聊的话题，不管你是自己动手的投资者，还是像你这样的专业理财顾问。

It's certainly not personal financial advice, but I think that this is a worthwhile conversation that people should be having either with themselves if they're a DIY investor or with a professional financial adviser like you.

还有，像我俩这样的老家伙，都五十多岁了——其实我比你还大——对，没错。

And I also, old geezers like me and you in our fifties, I'm older than you actually, but Yeah.

你知道，有点

You know, kinda

但也就是想想而已。

but thinking whatever.

我们都在考虑退休的事。

We're we're kinda thinking about our retirement.

对吧？

Right?

而且我们还有时间，你知道，不管是五年还是十年。

And we have some time, you know, whatever it is, five more years, ten more years.

对我们来说，回报率变得很重要。

What rate of return, you know, like this becomes pretty important to us.

我需要多少回报率才能在退休后或退休期间实现我的目标？

What rate of return do I need to meet my goals post retirement or in retirement?

我们就随便选一个数字吧。

And let's just pick a number.

比如说5%。

Say it's 5%.

对吧？

Right?

那我可以通过三十年国债、十年公司债、五年公司债来实现5%的收益。

Well, I can make 5% on a thirty year bond, on a ten year corporate bond, on a five year corporate bond.

也许我就锁定这个收益了。

Maybe I lock in.

我的目标就是赚5%或者更多。

Know, my goal is to make 5% or more.

我的目标不是要跑赢标普500。

My goal isn't to beat the S and P.

标普500是一个重要的基准，但它不是我的财富基准。

The S and P is a important benchmark, but that's not my wealth benchmark.

在这个例子里，我的财富基准就是5%。

My wealth benchmark in this example is 5%.

所以想想你能做些什么来锁定你的目标。

So think about the things you can do to basically lock in your goals.

而且增加固定收益资产可能比其他资产更能确保这一点。

And potentially adding fixed income just secures that a little bit more versus other assets.

对。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I totally agree.

而且我经常强调这一点。

And I try to hammer that point home a lot.

我很高兴你提到这个，那就是如果你通过安全的方式和安全的工具达到目标的概率很高，为什么还要冒险去破坏你成功的机会呢？

I'm glad you brought it up, which is if your probability is high of reaching your goal through a safe pace with a safe instrument, Why get tempted to screw up your odds for success?

就锁定那些确定且安全的东西，你就会有信心在需要的时候达到目标。

Just lock in what's sure and safe, and you'll have confidence that you're going to hit that goal by the time you need to.

然后好好生活，晚上睡个好觉。

And then just live your life and sleep well at night.

所以无论如何，我建议大家这么做。

So anyways, I recommend folks do that.

我还想说，我很想听听你对这个的看法。

I would also say and I love your thoughts on this.

我想说，如果大家觉得我们说的有道理，你可能会想，对，我或许应该考虑这么做。

I would say folks if we're you know, if what we're saying is sort of resonating with you, you're like, yeah, I should probably maybe think about doing that.

我想说，尽早行动，不要拖延，因为你知道，我们是在劳动节后录制的，对吧，迈克尔？

I would say do so sooner rather than later only because, you know, we're recording this right after Labor Day, Michael, right?

而且我觉得，人们总是忘记，一旦过了劳动节，年底来得有多快。

And so, I think people just always forget how fast the end of the year comes once you're past Labor Day.

所以他们想，好吧，对，我刚过完劳动节回来。

So, they think, okay, yeah, I'm coming back from Labor Day.

我会在元旦前试着研究一下这个，然后你一抬头，就会想，天哪。

I'll I'll try to look into this, you know, before New Year's and then, if you pick your head up and you're like, oh my god.

感恩节刚过。

Thanksgiving just passed.

我只剩下几个星期了。

I only have a couple weeks left.

我得把RMD弄好。

I've gotta get my RMDs in.

大家都在催我。

Everybody's screaming at me.

我还得搞定假期旅行。

I gotta get my holiday travel done.

你知道，工作上也要把年底的事情都处理完。

You know, work's trying to get all the end of the year stuff done.

结果就是搞不定，而你们作为财务顾问，会被一大堆在最后一刻才来找你们办事的人压得喘不过气来。

It just doesn't happen and you guys as as financial advisors, you get crushed under an avalanche of people who are there at the eleventh hour trying to get stuff done.

在这种环境下，谁都没法发挥出最佳水平。

Nobody gets their best work done in that environment.

所以，趁现在还有时间，趁着夏天的余温还在，大家赶紧把该做的事情安排好，避免年底手忙脚乱。

So while you still have some time and a little bit of halo from summer folks, get your ducks in order now and avoid that end of your scramble.

我们做的其中一件事我很喜欢，我很想说是兰斯和我在投资组合管理上施展了什么魔法，但其实不是。

And one of the things that we do that I love and I would love to say it's Lance and I doing our magic at portfolio management, but it's not.

是财务规划。

It's financial plans.

这些规划相当复杂，涉及很多不同的情景。

And they are pretty complex beasts with a lot of different scenario.

但是

But

我参加过一些和客户的电话会议，我会把整个经济和市场的那些话讲一遍，然后我就被财务规划的细节吸引住了。

I've sat on some calls with clients where I go through the whole economic and market spiel and then I get kind of caught on listening to the financial plan details.

我想每五年买一辆车。

I want to buy a car every five years.

女儿希望在未来十年内结婚。

Daughter's going to get married hopefully in the next ten years.

我们想每隔一年去一次欧洲。

We want to go to Europe every other year.

你把这些情景都列出来，然后这个非常厉害的软件会告诉你，根据你现有的资产、你预计的花销、通货膨胀以及其他很多因素，如果你能赚到5%或更多，你有98%的机会实现你的目标。

And you plot out these scenarios, and this this really incredible software tells you, well, based on what you have and what you think you're gonna spend and inflation and and a lot of other factors, you have a 98% chance if you can earn 5% or more of meeting your goals.

这对我来说就告诉了你接下来需要做什么，然后去投资，弄清楚你想买什么类型的投资产品。

And that to me tells you what you need to then go on your investment to figure out what you want to buy as far as your investments go.

所以我觉得，不管是我们来做、其他理财经理来做，还是你自己做，有一点理解是很重要的，那就是投资者需要的北极星，而不是盯着闪闪发光的标普500、纳斯达克、英伟达或者其他什么，以为那就能带我到我想去的地方。

I you know, so I think having some understanding whether we do it or some other money manager does it or you do it on your own is that's the that's the the north star that that investors need instead of looking at the glimmering, you know, S and P five hundred or Nasdaq or Nvidia or whatever it is and thinking that's gonna get me to where I wanna be.

你得看那个，你知道，真正的重点。

You gotta look at that, you know, the the true point.

所以我强烈建议大家要么自己做，要么用软件来做，要么请理财经理来做。

So I highly encourage people to either do it on their own, get software to do it, hire a money manager to do it.

我们很乐意帮你做。

We'd be happy to do it.

不。

No.

但是，RA，那是丹尼和理查德他们那些人。

But, RA, that's that's Danny and Richard and and those guys.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

是的，是的。

Yeah, yeah.

所以我也想插一句，但大家已经听我唠叨过很多次了，我就不再重复了。

So I'd chime in on that, but folks have heard me pile in on this point many times, so I'll save them from it.

但我真的很喜欢财务规划和计划。

But I'm just a huge fan of financial planning and planning.

而且我的顾问，我老是烦他，最后他干脆把软件给我了，说：看，你比我更喜欢钻研这个。

And with my advisor, I bugged him about it so much, he finally just gave me the software and said, look, you love to geek out on this even more than I do.

确实如此。

And I do.

我喜欢进去随便摆弄各种不同的情景。

I like to go in there and just play around with all different scenarios.

我们也是这么做的。

It We do the same thing.

我们的客户可以访问我们的软件，输入一些假设，比如未来十年买四辆车而不是两辆，或者做任何他们想做的事情。

Our clients can access our software and put in, maybe we'll buy four cars in the next ten years instead of two, or do whatever they want to do.

或者你干脆就疯狂刷手机。

Or you just totally doomscroll.

比如，好吧，如果明年我的资产减半怎么办？

Like, Okay, what if my holdings get cut in half next year?

或者万一，老天保佑，我们中有人被车撞了，或者失去收入之类的，你可以……

Or what if, god forbid, one of us gets hit by a bus or would lose our income or whatever and you can.

对。

Right.

你可以开始看到很多情况，你知道，要么是你特别脆弱的地方，然后说，好吧，我们真的要加固这里，要么就是，哇，我们能承受的打击比我们以为的要多，这不是让你去挥霍，而是说，我不需要像那种恐惧那样担心那么多。

You can start seeing, you know, lot of cases, you know, either areas where you're really vulnerable and say, okay, well, look, we're really gonna shore this up or like, wow, we can take more hits than we realized and it's not a reason to go and, you know, be a spendthrift but it's just to say, I don't need to worry as much as maybe that fear.

那种恐惧一直在我脑子里白住着，现在我可以把它赶出去了，因为我意识到，即使它真的发生了，也不会像我想的那样伤害我。

That fear was living rent free in my head and now I can kind of kick it out because I've realized even if it materializes, it's not gonna hurt me as much as as I thought it did.

我也是这么想的，没错。

I thought it That's right.

好的。

Okay.

那么，迈克尔，再次非常感谢你来做这个节目。

Well, with that said, Michael, thanks so much again for doing this.

这真的非常有用。

This was super useful.

如果你不介意的话，我们以后可以定期做这样的交流。

If you don't mind, we'll do this on, you know, some sort of regular cadence going forward.

就是给大家讲讲你在市场上看到的情况之类的。

Just give people audible calls on what you're seeing in the markets and whatnot.

就像你和兰斯常说的，要跟着基本面走，因为长期来看，你更有信心市场最终会朝着那个方向走。

And as you and Lance always say, you know, it's you follow the fundamentals because, you know, over time, you have greater confidence the market will eventually go there.

但在这期间，有时候可能需要比你想象的更长的时间，你只能根据当前的市场情况来操作。

But in the interim, and it can take a lot longer sometimes than you imagine, you just have to trade the market you have.

所以现在收益率还在继续走高，接下来会怎么样我们拭目以待。

So right now, the yields are continuing to go higher, and we'll see what happens from here.

说得好。

That's well said.

好的。

Okay.

各位，请和我一起感谢迈克，他放下手头的事情来给我们做这个更新。

Folks, please join me in thanking Mike for dropping everything to come on and give us this update.

要感谢的话，就点个赞，然后点下面的订阅按钮，还有旁边的那个小铃铛图标。

To do that, just hit the Like button and then hit the Subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it.

如果你想和财务顾问聊聊我们今天讨论的这些话题，甚至想和RIA的迈克尔及其团队聊聊，不管是债券、财务规划还是其他什么，只要在thoughtfulmoney.com上填一下那个很简短的表格，匹配给你的公司就会马上联系你。

And if you would like to talk to a financial advisor about all the issues that we talked about here, perhaps you'd even like to talk to Michael and the team there at RIA, whether it's about bonds, whether it's about a financial plan or whatever, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com and whichever firm you're matched with will be in touch with you right away.

提醒一下，这些咨询是完全免费的。

As a reminder, these consultations are totally free.

没有任何承诺或义务。

There's no commitments involved.

这只是他们为了尽可能提供帮助而提供的一项服务。

It's just a service they offer to be as helpful as possible.

最后，Thoughtful Money秋季线上会议马上就要到了。

Lastly, the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference is coming up fast.

会议将在大约一个月后，也就是10月17日星期六举行。

It's going to be just a little bit over a month from now on Saturday, October 17.

如果你不能看直播，也不用担心。

Don't worry if you can't watch live.

所有注册的人都会收到整个会议的回放视频，我想应该是在会议结束的当天晚上就能收到。

Everybody who registers will get sent replay videos of the entire conference, I think the exact same night as the conference ends.

而且会议筹备进展得非常顺利。

And it's coming along gangbusters.

要了解所有详情并注册，请访问thoughtfulmoney.com/conference，如果可以的话现在就去看，因为我们还在提供最低的折扣，也就是早鸟价折扣。另外提醒一下，如果你是我们Substack的付费订阅者，你有一个代码可以再减50美元，这是在早鸟价折扣基础上的额外优惠。

To get all the details as well as register, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/conference and go now if you can because we're still offering the lowest discount we're gonna offer the early bird price discount and a reminder, if you're a premium subscriber to our substack, you have a code that will get you an additional $50 off of that, early bird price discount.

所以，如果你还没有订阅我们的通讯，又想获得这个折扣，就去thoughtfulmoney.com/newsletter看看吧。

So, if you don't already subscribe to the newsletter and wanna get that discount, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/newsletter.

迈克尔，非常感谢，兄弟。

Michael, thanks so much, buddy.

这是我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

真心祝你本周一切顺利。

Really wish you a good week from here.

我知道这周我们还会请兰斯来。

I know we'll have Lance on again this week.

所以很快就能听到你同伴的声音了。不过，期待你很快再次来到我们的频道。

So, we'll get to hear from your cohort, your partner in crime there soon But, looking forward to have you back on the channel again soon.

在那之前，继续做你正在做的事情吧。

And in the interim, just keep doing what you're doing.

如果有什么情况，比如你说，嘿，亚当，我现在真的要做个决定了，告诉我，我们会很快把你拉回来。

And if something happens where you say, hey, Adam, I actually am now making an audible call, let me know, we'll pull you back on here quickly.

一言为定。

Deal.

听起来不错。

Sounds good.

好的。

All right.

非常感谢，迈克。

Thanks so much, Mike.

各位观众，感谢你们的观看。

Everybody else, thanks so much for watching.