Despite Big Real Challenges, The Economy Is In Good Shape & Getting Better | Dr. Art Laffer

现在你问普通人，他们想要的是美元。

Now, you ask the regular person, you know, they want dollars.

别误会，这里的普通人，甚至可能美国以外更多的人，都想要美元。但当你问他们，好吧，那美元是什么？

Don't get me wrong and the regular person here and and probably even more people outside The US want dollars but when you ask them, okay, but what is a dollar?

他们就会有点，我我我不太清楚。

They kinda go, I I I don't really know.

所以我觉得你的回答很好，但还是有点模糊，这正是你回答的核心，对吧？

So, I think your answer is a good one, but it's still really squishy, which was the whole part of your answer, right?

就是说它是一种

Which is it's this

是的，没错。

It is, yes.

它是一种构造，我们其实没有任何标准来衡量它。

It's this construct and we don't really have a standard to hold it to at any point.

我们基本上就是相信它，然后祈祷好运。

We just kind of put our faith in it and cross our fingers basically.

比那还要多一点。

A little bit more than that.

但是，你知道，标准，金本位就是金本位。

But, you know, a standard, the gold standard was a gold standard.

但黄金又是什么呢？

But what is gold?

嗯，黄金，你可以用来做牙齿，做珠宝，诸如此类。

Well, gold, you can do your teeth, you can do jewelry, stuff like that.

黄金具有美元的许多属性，因为它没有自然存在的内在价值。

Gold has many of the attributes of a dollar in that it doesn't have the intrinsic value that would naturally be there.

你不能吃它，也不能穿它。

You can't eat it, you can't wear it.

它有一些非常独特的特性。

It's got some really neat characteristics.

它几乎可以无限分割。

It's almost infinitely divisible.

它体积小，但价值非常高。

It's very high value in a small compact form.

它很统一。

It's uniform.

它很统一，而且容易被接受。

It's uniform, it's readily acceptable.

这些都是很好的特点。

All of those things are great.

但有了加密货币，你可以把这些定义得更清楚。

But with cryptocurrencies, you can define these things even more.

我特别希望看到的是，美元能成为一种单位，代表一篮子有内在价值的商品和服务，比如食物、房租等等。

And what I would love to see is a dollar being a unit, a bundle of goods and services that have value intrinsically, like food, like rent, like all those things.

那才是真正完美的。

That would really be perfect.

这样我们就不会有黄金市场的那些缺点了。

And then we wouldn't have any of the shortcomings of the gold market.

我们会有一个私人系统，不会出现供应不足的问题。

We would have a private system that doesn't have the shortcomings of a bad supply.

那会很棒。

And that would be great.

我觉得我们正朝着那个方向发展。

And I think we're headed in that direction.

这个演变过程真的很精彩。

The evolution of this is really neat.

亚当，我今天会发给你几篇我最近写的关于这个的文章，里面引用了冯·哈耶克关于什么是货币以及货币应该是什么的观点。

I'll send you a little piece, I'll send you a couple of pieces today, Adam, that I've written recently on this, and quoting von Hayek on what is money and what should money be.

货币应该是一种私有的东西，与一篮子具有内在价值的商品和服务挂钩。

And money should be a private thing related to a bundle of goods and services that have intrinsic value in them.

这就是货币应该有的样子。

And that's what it should be.

黄金已经很接近了，但还不太符合这个标准。

Gold comes pretty close, but doesn't quite satisfy that.

对，但它不是一篮子服务。

Yeah, well, it's not a basket of services.

这真的很有意思。

That's really interesting.

我想和你深入探讨这个，但我还有很多其他问题。

I want to dive into that with you, but I've got so many other questions.

好吧，我会把这个深入探讨留到你接下来的最后一个问题。

Think Well, I'm let's gonna I'll flag that deep dive for one of your next last question on this.

所以，你知道，有很多人认为，我理解他们为什么这么想。

So, you know, there are lot of people who who think and I understand what I think this way.

拉弗博士永远不会回到0%通胀的世界，因为考虑到政府的所有债务和赤字支出，通胀对他们有利。

Doctor Laffer will never get back to a 0% inflation world because given all of the debt and the deficit spending of the government, inflation helps them.

这是他们计算的一部分，对吧？

It's part of their calculus, right?

国会山会接受这个，还是会永远成为0%通胀世界的对立面？

Could would could Capitol Hill ever embrace this or would it be a perpetual antagonist to a 0% inflation world?

是的，我能想到所有为什么这永远不会发生的理由。

Yeah, I can think of all the reasons why that never would happen.

而且你可能是对的。

And you're probably right.

如果我们朝那个方向稍微走一点，世界就会变得更好。

It's not if we move a little bit in that direction, it makes the world better.

你知道，所以在这类事情上我已经是个边际主义者了。

You know, so I'm already a marginalist on this type of thing.

而且，你知道，我的杯子从来不是半空的。

And, you know, my glass is never half empty.

它总是半满的，多一点或少一点。

It's always a half full, a little bit more, a little bit less.

所以在这个世界上我是个乐观主义者。

So I'm an optimist in this world.

而且我认为政府真正的问题很简单，就是这些人不承担自己行为的后果。

And I think the real problem we have in government, very simply, is that these people don't bear the consequences of their own actions.

没错。

Exactly.

我是说，他们确实不承担。

I mean, they really don't.

如果某个来自德克萨斯州的男议员或女议员投票支持大量支出，那她的薪水会怎样？

If some congresswoman or man from Texas votes, they spend a lot, you know, what happens to her paycheck?

她的生活方式会怎样？

What happens to her lifestyle?

什么都不会变。

Nothing.

她可能还会得到一些游说者的支持，从而获得更多的政治献金。

She probably gets some lobbyists that she can come in and get some more political contributions.

所以我一直努力思考，如何把激励机制内化到我们的政治人物身上，让他们行为更正确，或者至少更正确一些。

So I have always tried to focus on how can we internalize the incentive system into our politicians and make it so that they behave correctly, or at least more correctly.

能不能

Can

我只是想问问你。

I just ask you this?

不好意思。

I'm sorry.

对。

Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特对此有个想法，我觉得阿根廷的马拉伊刚开始实施，基本思路是当国家支出超过预算时。

Warren Buffett had an idea about that, which I think Malay in Argentina has just started implementing, which is basically when the spent state spending exceeds the budget.

如果停摆超过三十天，基本上从总统到最基层的政客，全都拿不到工资。

If it's for, like, longer than thirty days, like, pretty much everybody from the president down to, the most junior, you know, politician, they don't get paid.

直到预算恢复平衡，他们才能领钱。

They don't get paid until it's brought back into balance.

这就是你刚才说的那种情况吗？

Is that the kind of thing you're talking about?

沃伦·巴菲特在这些事情上很有见解，但他其实不懂经济学。

Warren Buffett is really good on these things, but he doesn't understand economics.

让我这么说吧，你为什么不让他们拿提成呢？

And let me just put it, why don't you just put them on commission?

我的意思是，如果GDP每年增长3%，他们就能拿到工资。

I mean, if GDP grows at 3% per year, they get their pay.

如果每年增长4%，就给他们双倍工资。

If it grows at 4% per year, give them double their pay.

每年增长5%，就给他们三倍工资。

Grows at 5% per year, triple their pay.

每年增长2%，就没有工资。

Grows at 2% per year, no pay.

增长

Grows at

每年增长1%，他们就得倒贴工资给我们。

1% a year, they owe us their pay.

这样就直接多了。

That makes it a really direct comment.

我不知道赤字应该是多少，或者不应该是多少。

I don't know what the deficit should be or shouldn't be.

沃伦·巴菲特声称他知道。

Warren Buffett claims he does.

赤字有时候可以高，有时候可以低。

There are certain times the deficit can be high and low.

我只是希望，如果他们做得好，他们的行动能得到奖励；如果做得不好，就要受到惩罚。

And I just would like their actions rewarded if they do a good job and punished if they do a bad job.

我想到的另一个办法是，给他们一个500万美元的标普500影子投资组合，让他们保留所有资本利得，免税，但如果下跌，他们必须承担所有资本损失。

The other one I thought of was giving them a shadow portfolio of $5,000,000 in the S and P 500 and allow them to keep all the capital gains tax free and allow them to have to pay back all the capital losses if it goes down.

我想做的是，让他们做愚蠢的政治事情时，不能毫无代价。

What I want to do is make it so it's not costless for them to do stupid political things.

这就是沃伦·巴菲特试图做的。

And that's what Warren Buffett is trying to do.

他认为他知道如何管理政府。

He thinks he knows how to run government.

如果他真那么聪明，干嘛不去竞选总统呢？

And if he were so smart, why didn't he run for president?

他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦确实很厉害。

He's great on Berkshire Hathaway.

我是真心喜欢他，特别特别喜欢。

I love, love, love, love him, and I really do.

但我觉得他在税收方面的建议那些东西，完全跑偏了。

But I think on his tax suggestions and that stuff, he's really way off base.

但如果你让这些人的报酬跟业绩挂钩，我觉得迟早我们会朝着正确的方向迈出重大一步。

But if you put these people on commission, I think sooner or later we'd have a major move in the right direction.

顺便说一句，这样两党之间也不会出现分裂。

And there'd be no split in the parties, by the way.

如果意味着要自己掏腰包买单，没人会再盲目投票支持自己的党派了。

No one's gonna vote for their party if it means they have to pay for it.

你平时是怎么给修剪草坪的人付报酬的呢？

How do you reward someone mowing your lawn?

你付钱给他们。

You pay them.

如果他们干得特别好，你就给点小费。

If they do a really good job, you give them a little tip.

他们干得特别差，第二天你就不雇他们了。

They do a really bad job, you don't hire them the next day.

事情就是这样。

And that's the way it is.

我们对政客可没有这样的机制。

We don't have any mechanism like this with regard to politicians.

这就是最疯狂的地方。

And that's the crazy part.

其实也不算疯狂。

Well, it's not crazy.

当人们坐拥大把大把的钱时，他们自然会变富。

People when they sit on buckets and buckets and buckets of money are gonna get rich.

面对现实吧。

Face the facts.

我们会想办法把它合理化，说这不是偷，是我们应得的，我们付出了牺牲，这些都是胡扯。

We'll figure out how to rationalize it, that it's not stealing, it's us, we deserve it, wherever we sacrifice, that's all BS.

满地的肥皂泡和马粪。

Acres and acres of soap suds and horse manure.

他们肯定会发财，因为他们手里攥着他们想要的钱。

They're gonna get rich, they're sitting on money that they want.

我不介意政客赚很多很多钱，只要我们也一样。

I don't mind politicians making lots and lots of money as long as we do too.

真正让我反感的是，政客们赚得盆满钵满，而我们却破产、负债累累。

What I really find offensive is politicians making lots and lots of money we're going broke and going bankrupt.

这才是问题所在。

That's the problem.

所以我只是想让他们的利益和我们的利益一致。

So I just want to align their incentives with our incentives.

我觉得如果我们能把这样的法案提交到国会，应该很容易通过。

And that I think we could pass very easily if we could get a bill like that up in front of Congress.

他们

They

在

have

经济衰退期间很难给自己投票通过大额奖金。

a very hard time voting themselves big bonuses during recessions.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

对。

Right.

所以这就是我的做法，重新激发那些人的积极性。

So that's the way I would go about it, was reinstilling incentives in those people.

你知道，即使公务员表现好，你也没法给他们发奖金。

You know, you can't even bonus GS workers because they've done a good job.

我是说，比利·韦尔德当马萨诸塞州州长的时候，有个女士为州里省了大约三千万美元，他给了她一万美元的奖金。

I mean, Billy Weld, when he was governor of Massachusetts, had this one lady who saved the state like $30,000,000 and he gave her a 10,000 bonus.

他们被告上法庭，法院让他收回奖金。

They took it to court and the court made him rescind the bonus.

奖励优秀、奖励能力、奖励人才竟然是违法的。

It's illegal to reward excellence, reward competence, to reward meritocracy.

这太荒谬了。

I mean, that's ridiculous.

那么，你能完全做对吗？

Now, will you get it exactly right?

每个具体提案都有它的优点和缺点，有起有落，有好有坏。

Each specific proposal has its own assets and liabilities and ups and downs and goods and bads.

但即使不完美，加入一些内容也会带来重大改变，亚当。

But putting something in there would make a major difference, Adam, even if it's not perfect.

好的。

Okay.

再说一遍，用那个1000%的说法，我百分之百支持你。

Again, to use the 1000%, I'm 1000% behind you on that.

引用沃伦·巴菲特的老搭档查理·芒格的话，给我看激励，我就告诉你结果。

And to quote Warren Buffett's longtime partner, Charlie Munger, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.

所以你想

So what you want to

做的是——我只是说，不，芒格应该和沃伦换个位置。

do is All I'm saying, no, Munger should have switched roles with Warren.

芒格说得完全对。

Munger had it exactly right.

如果你让人们坐在那笔钱上，他们就会去拿那笔钱。

If you incentivize people by sitting on top of that money, they're gonna get the money.

如果你让他们通过做好事而不是坏事来拿到钱，那何乐而不为呢？

If you make it so they can get the money by doing good things as opposed to bad things, why not?

他们肯定会去拿的。

They're gonna get it.

对，你说得对。我对最初针对Doge的反对声音感到非常沮丧，但幸运的是，追查浪费、欺诈和滥用这个使命似乎还在继续，不仅在联邦层面，在很多州也是如此。

Well, and to your point, I've been very frustrated by the pushback to, you know, Doge initially, but just, you know, fortunately, mission of going after waste, fraud, and abuse seems to be continuing both at the federal level but but also in a lot of different states.

但是有很多反对声音，我对此总是感到震惊。而且你说得对，我希望看到更多的工资欺诈和滥用被识别并清除。

But there's a lot of pushback to it and I'm I'm I'm always blown away by that but also to your point, you know, I'd like to see more wage fraud and abuse identified and removed.

所以激励，抱歉，你说什么？

And so incentivize pardon me?

你为什么预期会有反对声音？

Why would you expect a pushback?

谁会因为Doge成功而获得奖金？

Who who gets bonused for Doge being successful?

这正是我的观点，但我正要这么说。

That's my point, but I was just about to say that.

对。

Yeah.

现在，没有人，对吧？

Right now, nobody, right?

没人。

Nobody.

天哪，他们为什么要这么做？

God, why would they do it?

为什么要

Why would

如果我们能设立一个激励机制，让那些法务会计人员，比如尼克·雪莉那样的人，或者那个为比尔·韦尔德工作的女士，他们知道，如果我节省了X金额，今年就能拿到一笔丰厚的额外奖金。

If they want we had an incentive out there that either, you know, forensic folks like the Nick Shirley's of the world or this woman who worked for Bill Weld or whatever, where they knew that, hey, I'm gonna get a pretty fat additional bonus this year if I can save X.

除了那些骗子，这是每个人都想看到的。

That's except for the fraudsters, that's every what everybody would like to see.

对吧？

Right?

这真是

It's

太好了。

wonderful.

而且就算是骗子，如果能正当地赚钱，他们也会不再行骗。

And even the fraudsters will stop being fraudsters if they can earn it honestly.

对。

Yeah.

正当地赚钱。

Earn it honestly.

我想到你举的例子，比如如果GDP增长超过一定水平就给国会发奖金，那唯一需要做的就是——

The the only thing you need to do I'm just thinking to your example of, you know, paying congress if GDP growth is above a certain amount.

我觉得这很好，但显然你得围绕这个建立一些机制，确保他们不会为了推高GDP而让债务增长快于GDP，对吧？

I think that's great, but then you get to obviously put some structures around this, and you want to make sure that they're not growing the debt faster than GDP to goose GDP, right?

所以你得加一些保障措施。

So you've got to put some safeguards there.

对，得小心点。

Yeah, you've got to be careful.

而且我那是举例说明，不是字面意思。

And I'd use that illustratively, not literally.

所以，别把它当成我拟定的正式法案。

So, don't look at this as being my written bill.

当然，你肯定得在上面加些具体条款，不能就这么空着，但整体框架还是要保持简洁。

Of course, you'd want to put things on it so this wouldn't be But you've to keep it simple.

因为如果规则太复杂，那些律师、游说团体和利益相关方就会钻空子，把水搅浑。

Because if it's not simple, you'll get all the lawyers and chaisers and lobbyists and everything else to play the game.

这就好比那种低税率、覆盖面广的单一税制。

It's like a low rate broad based flat tax.

不能有任何例外，因为如果没有例外，就没人能钻系统的空子。

No exceptions because then if there are no exceptions, there's no way of gaming the system.

对。

Yeah.

规则要尽量简单，让人没法作弊。

And make it as simple as you possibly can so it can't be gamed.

就这么简单。

That's all.

这挺有意思的。

That's funny.

我刚想拿你的统一税来比较，结果你先说了。好吧。

I was just gonna compare that to your flat tax and you beat me to the All right.

好了，我得继续往下讲了，因为剩下的时间里我还想聊几个大话题。

Well, look, I've gotta move on here, because I've got a number of big topics I wanna try to cover in the time that we have left.

不过在我继续之前，先快速读一下今天视频的赞助商。你知道每周做这个节目有什么好玩的吗？

But very quick before I do, I just wanna do a quick read from today's sponsor of this video, You know what's funny about doing this show every week?

我跟业内最顶尖的分析师聊天，等采访结束的时候，我已经忘了一半本来想追问的问题。

I talk to the sharpest analysts in the business and by the time the interview is over, I've forgotten half of what I wanted to follow-up on.

所以我开始用Plaud Note Pro。

That's why I started using the Plaud Note Pro.

这是个很薄的设备。

It's this thin device.

比信用卡还薄，贴在手机背面。

It's thinner than a credit card that sticks to the back of my phone.

或者你可以用我手上的这支Plaud Note Pen S，它能让你在事情发生的当下就免提记录重要信息。

Or you can use the Plaud Note Pen S, which I've got right here, which provides a hands free way to capture important information the moment it happens.

不管我是在和嘉宾通话，还是在会议上面对面坐着，Plaud都能完整捕捉整个对话。

Whether I'm on a call with a guest or sitting across from someone at a conference, Plaud just captures the whole conversation.

不用手忙脚乱，也不用急着记笔记。

No fumbling, no scrambling to write things down.

之后，Plaud的AI会把对话转成文字稿，里面包含真正的要点和行动项，而不是一堵文字墙。

And afterwards, Plaud's AI turns it into a transcript with real key points and action items, not just a wall of text.

想查一下三周前分析师对收益率曲线的看法？

Need to check what analysts said about the yield curve three weeks ago?

直接搜索就行。

Just search for it.

超过200万人在用Plaud，包括那些不能对客户对话掉以轻心的金融专业人士。

Over 2,000,000 people use Plaud, including financial professionals who can't afford to be careless with client conversations.

它配备了企业级安全性能，完全匹配这种需求。

It's built with enterprise grade security to match.

所以，如果你经常和客户、分析师通话，或者和任何说话内容很重要的人通话，这个值得一看。

So if you're someone who's constantly on calls with clients, with analysts, with anyone whose exact words actually matter, this is worth a look.

访问 plaud.aiaadam 并使用代码 ADAM，最高可享受 15% 的折扣。

Visit Plaud at plaud.aiaadam and use code ADAM for up to 15% off.

好的。

All right.

下一个话题，博士。

The next topic here Doctor.

拉弗是关税。

Laffer is tariffs.

我知道你不太喜欢关税。

I know you're not a huge fan of them.

有时候我觉得你认为关税只是一种谈判策略。

Sometimes I think you think you're okay is like a bargaining tactic.

但自从新政府上台以来，他们确实加大了关税的使用力度，到目前为止你怎么评价他们？

But since the new administration's come in and they've really dialed up their usage of tariffs, how do you judge them so far?

总体来看，他们是利大于弊还是弊大于利？

Have they been a net good overall or a net bad?

嗯，目前我们还不确定。

Well, we so we don't know so far.

真的不太清楚。

We really don't.

我比较担心跟加拿大有关的那些事。

I'm worried about the Canada stuff.

我其实挺喜欢加拿大人的，你知道的，这事儿已经远远超出了产品本身的范畴。

I I I sort of like Canadians and, you know, it's gone

我非常喜欢加拿大人。

I love way Canadians.

哦，对了，我也挺喜欢他们的。

Oh, I you know, I like them too, by the way.

现在的情况早就不仅仅是关于那些产品了。

It's gone way beyond just the products there.

这已经变成政治问题了。

It's become political.

它成了一个集结号。

It's become a rallying point.

现在到处都充满了敌意。

It's become a hostile thing all the way around.

我觉得它带来了很多意想不到的负面后果。

It's got many deleterious consequences unintended, I believe, that have occurred from it.

所以我能看到很多问题。

So I can see a lot of the problems there.

但老天作证，我绝不会把核武器卖给金正恩。

But goodness knows I would never sell Kim Jong Un nuclear weapons.

我反对核武器的自由贸易，和金正恩之间，我坚决反对，先声明一下。

I'm against free trade in nuclear weapons with Kim I Jong am against it, just for the record.

正是自由贸易，从1640年到1870年，给我们带来了……

It has been free trade that has provided us from 1640 until 1870.

我们美国从贸易逆差中获益巨大，这些逆差实际上是资本流入，让我们能把劳动力、资本流入和自然资源结合起来，成为地球上最强大的力量。

We in The United States benefited enormously from our trade deficits, which are capital inflows, which allowed us to combine labor and this inflow of capital with natural resources to create the preeminent force on the planet.

所以贸易真的非常非常重要。

So trade is really, really, really, really important.

但你看像唐纳德·特朗普这样的政客，他有很多其他目标，比如停止乌克兰战争，就像他在非洲停止的那些，还有和伊朗等其他事情，他的工具箱里没有太多工具能让其他国家按照我们的观点和世界观行事。

But when you look at a politician, like let's say Donald Trump, and he has all sorts of other objectives like stopping the Ukraine war, like the ones he stopped in Africa, like you've got other things going on with Iran and stuff, He doesn't have a lot of tools in his toolbox to get other countries to conform to what we think our views and the worldviews

对。

Right.

应该，或者至少以他觉得需要的速度。

Should Or at least at the speed he feels he needs

没错。

That's correct.

而且他有灵活性，有对等性，他有所有这些很棒的东西，这些工具非常适用。

And he has flexibility, he has reciprocity, he has all of these wonderful things that these tools are very applicable.

所以我不太想批评他，因为我觉得他确实是个非常优秀的谈判者。

So I'm loathe to go after him because I think he is really a very good negotiator.

我觉得他是个非常聪明的人，而且他非常专注于让美国真正成为一个伟大的地方。

I think he's a very smart man, and I think he's very focused on making America really a great place.

我觉得这些说法都非常正确。

I think that those are all very true.

而且我对他如何使用这些关税给了很多自由，不会以自由贸易者的身份去批评他。

And I give him a lot of leeway on how he uses these tariffs without criticizing him as a free trader.

换句话说，我知道自由贸易和贸易壁垒涉及的远不止我那些学术上的东西。

In other words, I know there's a lot more to free trade and trade barriers than just my academic stuff.

但学术上的东西很重要，而且影响巨大。

But the academic stuff is big and it's huge.

当它发挥作用时，就会产生很大的冲击，这是一个拍桌子级别的问题。

And when it comes into play, it thumps, it's a table thumping problem.

他对此也很清楚，因为我和他谈过这件事。

And he is aware of that because I've talked to him about it.

所以我很信任他，但天哪，如果这事落在拜登手里，我肯定会大喊大叫，甚至跑去洗手间躲起来。

So I trust him a lot, but God, if it were in the hands of Biden, I'd be screaming and hollering and running to the men's room.

好的。

Okay.

大概是因为你不信任他，对吧？

Just presumably because you wouldn't trust him to Exactly.

觉得他没法有效地去尝试。

Be effective in trying

嗯，他确实不像唐纳德·特朗普那样有本事。

to Well, he's find not skilled like Donald Trump is.

他就是没有。

He's just not.

我的意思是，他可能是个好人。

I mean, he's maybe a great guy.

而且就那次选举中的民主党候选人来说，我是支持他的，比其他人都支持。

And as far as the Democrats were concerned at that election, I I supported him over the other ones.

其他那些人真的很差劲。

The other ones were really bad.

对。

Mhmm.

但是，你知道，他们在谈判、贸易和打交道这些方面并不擅长。

But, you know, they aren't skilled in negotiations and trade and dealings and all that.

特朗普擅长。

Trump is.

他真的很厉害。

He really is amazing.

我是说，上帝说他是个亿万富翁。

Mean, God says he's a billionaire.

我在这里想强调一下。

I just want to underscore here.

所以评论区会有一些不喜欢唐纳德·特朗普的人来骂我们。

So we're going to get some screams in the comments from people who do not like Donald Trump.

但我想说的是，你对拜登的批评是针对个人的。

But I just wanna say, your your criticism of Biden, is is individual.

这不是意识形态的问题。

It's not ideological.

对，你说得对。

You have yeah.

我是说，你支持过好几位民主党总统。

You you you I mean, you a number of Democratic presidents.

哦对，1992年杰里·布朗竞选总统时，我是他的经济顾问。

Oh yeah, I was Jerry Brown's economist when he ran for president in 1992.

我当时非常欣赏比尔·克林顿。

I was a big fan of Bill Clinton's.

他一点都不喜欢我，但这没关系。

He didn't like me at all, but that doesn't matter.

我喜欢他。

I liked him.

我觉得他是个伟大的总统。

I thought he was a great president.

而且你知道，我一直是理查德·尼克松的强烈批评者。

And you know, I've been a big critic of Richard Nixon.

我曾在白宫为他工作过。

I was in his White House.

我觉得他在经济政策上做的每件事都是错的。

Everything he did I thought was wrong on economics.

但我个人挺喜欢他的。

I liked him personally.

我觉得里根很棒。

I thought Reagan was great.

如果你看看这些，我觉得小布什、奥巴马和拜登在经济方面都相当糟糕。

If you look at that, I thought W, Obama and Biden were really pretty bad on economics.

而我认为特朗普在经济方面做得相当不错。

And I think Trump has been pretty good on economics.

所以这就是我的立场。

So that's where I am.

说实话，亚当，我对社会议题完全不感兴趣。

I'm really I'm not into social issues, Adam, at all.

真的不感兴趣。

I'm not.

如果你喜欢减税和稳健的货币政策，那你在我这儿就有位置。

If you like tax cuts and sound money, you've got a seat at my table.

我不在乎你是跨性别者、异性恋还是别的什么，只要你懂好的经济政策，你在我这儿就有位置。

I don't care if you're trans or straight or whatever the hell it is, you've a seat at my table if you like good economics.

就这些。

That's all.

如果你不喜欢，如果你不是跨性别者，你是异性恋，一切正常，只要你懂好的经济政策，你在我这儿也有位置。

If you don't like, if you're not trans, if you're straight, you're all normal and everything like that, you've also got a seat at my table if you like good economics.

对，对。

Right, right.

我只关心好的经济政策。

I'm interested in good economics.

这就是为什么我特别喜欢跟你聊天，博士。

One of the reasons why I really enjoy talking to you, Doctor.

拉弗，原因有很多，但其中一个就是你跟我很像，我也是先通过经济学的视角来看世界的。

Laffer, and there are many, but is you're sort of like me, whereas I look at the world first through an economic lens.

没错，就是这样。

My Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

只要我能在我自己的家庭里保留我自己的个人选择，那是我真正想要的。

As long as I'm able to have my own personal choices in my own family, that I really do want.

我不希望任何人告诉我我必须堕胎或者不能堕胎。

Don't want anyone telling me I have to have an abortion or don't have to have an abortion.

就我个人而言，我有六个孩子，你知道的，还有十四个孙辈。

I want to really personally, I've got six kids as you know, and 14 grandkids.

而且你知道我是反堕胎的，这是我的立场。

And you know I'm pro life, mean, that's me.

但如果你不是，我依然喜欢你。

But if you aren't, I still like you.

如果你是个服务员，我发现一个服务员堕过胎，我不会站起来把她打个半死。

If you're a waitress, I found out a waitress that had an abortion, I wouldn't stand up and beat the hell out of her.

我照样会给她同样的小费，因为服务是一样的。

I'd still give her the same tip for the same service.

我们容忍这个世界，容忍彼此的差异，即使这些差异让你不舒服。

We tolerate this world and we tolerate differences even if they do upset you.

这是作为人类的一部分。

And that's part of being part of humanity.

但经济方面，我们需要一个有利于增长和繁荣的环境。

But economics, that we need the right environment for pro growth and for prosperity.

我们确实，而且——

We really And

我马上会继续，但我看世界的方式，我觉得和你是一样的。

I'll move on in a second, but sort of the way I look at the world, I think it's the same way you do too.

当提出一项新政策时，不管它来自哪个党派，我的第一个问题就是，它在经济上是否可持续？

When a new policy is proposed, no matter what aisle it comes from, my first question is just, is it economically sustainable?

如果是的话，那成功的可能性就很大。

And if it is, odds are really good.

我就会支持它。

I'll get behind it.

我不在乎它来自哪里。

I don't care where it came from.

你明白吗？

You know?

你还记得我们第一次见面时，我提到的五个王国吗？

Well, do you remember our first session where I went for the five kingdoms?

当然记得。

Absolutely.

那正是我对每个领域都有的一些核心原则。

That's exactly I have these sort of north stars of each of those.

我看到一项法案，就会问自己：从整体来看，这项法案是让我们更接近那个核心目标，还是偏离了它？

And I look at a bill and I ask myself the question, aggregate, this bill move us towards the north star or away from the north star?

如果它能让我们更靠近目标，我就支持。

If it moves us towards it, I support it.

如果它让我们偏离目标，我就反对。

If it moves us away, I oppose it.

即便法案里有些条款可能合意、也可能不合意，但我尽量把握整体大局，确保政策组合合理，并且始终记住：不要为了追求完美而错失良机。

And even though there are components of the bills that may or may not like and like and all that stuff, I really try to get my arm around the trunk and have a good set of policies and always never let the best be the enemy of the good.

我们可以让系统变得更好一点，愿它越来越好。

We can make the system a little bit better, God bless it, make it better.

别坐在那儿说，哎呀，它不够完美。

Don't sit there and say, Well, it's not perfect.

不，你不该这么想。

No, that's not the way to look at it.

对。

Right.

对，进步就是通向完美的过程。

Well, you progress to perfection.

是的。

Yes.

希望我们确实是在往那个方向前进。

Hope you have moved towards it.

我们现在就处在这个阶段。

That's where we are.

好的。

All right.

如果你不介意的话，能不能先简要列出你的五点？

I'm not going to if you don't mind, can you just state your five points?

不用详细解释。

Don't explain them much.

好的。

Yes.

制定一个覆盖面广的单一税，尽量减少逃税、避税或不申报应税收入的动机，并尽量减少可以藏匿收入以逃避纳税的地方，取消所有的扣除、豁免、排除、遗漏和抵免。

Write a broad based flattax to provide the least incentives to vade, avoid, or otherwise not report taxable income, and the least number of places get rid of all the deductions, exemptions, exclusions, omissions, credits, so they have the least place where people can put their income to avoid paying taxes.

低税率、覆盖面广的单一税。

Low rate broad based flattax.

控制支出。

Spending restraint.

支出永远不应超过最后一块钱带来的收益大于最后一块钱税收成本的那个点。

Spending should never go past the point where the benefit of the last dollar spent has to be greater than the cost of the last dollar of taxes collected.

就在那里停下来。

Right there is where you stop.

那才是政府的合适规模。

That's the right size of government.

稳健的货币，没有通货膨胀。

Sound money, no inflation.

这是一种价值稳定的货币计量单位，就像我们之前讨论的那样。

It's a monetary numeraire that is stable in value going forward, just like we discussed earlier.

最少的监管。

Minimal regulations.

我们都知道需要监管，这点大家都明白。

We all know we need regulations, we all understand it.

但你要做的是确保这些监管不要超出具体目的，造成很多附带损害。

But what you wanna do is make sure that those regulations do not go beyond the specific purposes at hand and create a lot of collateral damage.

最少的监管，最后是自由贸易。

Minimal regulation, and finally free trade.

这就是繁荣的五大支柱。

Those are the five pillars of prosperity.

低税率、广泛基础的单一税，控制支出，稳健货币，最少监管，以及自由贸易。

Low rate broad based flat tax, spending restraint, sound money, minimal regulations, and free trade.

然后就让开，让自由市场去解决接下来的问题。

And then get the hell out of the way and let the free market solve the problems from there on.

你创造了一个合适的环境，政府做的正是它该做的事，不多也不少。

You created the right environment where government is doing exactly what it's supposed to do and nothing more and nothing less.

这就是你想要的状态。

That's where you wanna be.

好的。

All right.

希望我——你重新说了一遍。

Hope I You restated

做得很好。

did great.

我感觉，我好像听到很多人在笔记本电脑前为你起立鼓掌。

Sensing, I think I hear a number of people giving you a standing ovation from their laptops.

各位，如果你们想更深入了解博士的——

Folks, if you want to get a deeper dive into Doctor.

拉弗先生对这五个要点的看法，我记不清具体是哪个视频了，但你们可以去看看他在Thoughtful Money上早期的视频。

Laffer's thoughts on those five points, I can't remember which exact video it was, but go look through his earlier videos here on Thoughtful Money.

你们多翻翻，总能找到的。

And you'll you'll if you poke around enough, you'll you'll find it.

好的。

Alright.

所以这里还有很多重要的话题。

So a lot of still big, topics here.

我接下来要从美联储的讨论转到财政部。

I'm gonna shift over to the treasury from from our discussions with the Fed to the treasury.

从宏观层面看，很明显财政部希望降低借贷成本，因为利息支出在政府的收支表上大幅膨胀，占用了大量资金，而这些资金本可以用于其他方面。

So at a high level, you know, seems super clear that the Treasury is hoping to get borrowing costs down because interest expense has, you know, relatively exploded on the government's p and l, and so it's just sucking up oxygen, funds that could be used for other things.

说实话，他们最近的日子不太好过。

They've had a tough time, to be frank.

你知道，尤其是今年，收益率走势完全违背了政府的意愿，以至于现在财政部开始直接干预了。

Know, yields, especially this year, have certainly gone against the government's desires to the point now where the treasury is starting to intervene directly.

是的。

Yes.

我们看到了斯科特·贝森特所谓的“财政部操作扭曲”，有些人这么称呼它。

And we had Scott Besson's sort of treasury operation twist, some are calling it.

确实如此。

It is.

好的。

Okay.

这个问题我甚至都不想问你。

I didn't even wanna ask you a question on this.

我希望你直接展开讲讲，你觉得这个话题最重要的方面是什么。

I want you to just expound on whatever you think is most important about this topic.

首先，我想稍微纠正你一下。

First place, I'd like to correct you a little bit.

是的，这是一项支出。

Yes, it is an expense.

利息是一项支出。

Interest is an expense.

但利息对收款人来说也是一项收入。

But interest is also an income to the recipients.

利息支付最终是零和的。

Interest payments net to zero.

它们总是这样。

They always do so.

不要只从借款人的角度来论证。

Don't only argue it in favor of the borrower.

你还得从贷款人的角度来看。

Also, you have to look at it in terms of the lender.

贷款人需要确保能获得回报。

The lender needs to be able to be assured of a return.

如果他们对回报没有把握，利率就会上升，直到他们得到回报为止。

And if they're not assured of the return, then the rates will go up until they do get that.

所以这是

So it's

一个市场驱动的现象。

a market driven phenomenon.

对，抱歉打断一下，但就你说的这点，这其实也是一种刺激措施，对吧？

Yeah, and sorry to interject, but just to your point, it is a stimulus as well, right?

所以所有那些

So all the people who are

可以，当然可以。

It can be, sure it can be.

所有那些拿着国库券悠哉过日子的人，他们现在真的很开心，因为回报更高了。

All the people who've got, you know, who are T billing and chilling, you know, they're really, if they're T bonding and chilling, they're happy right now because they're getting a higher return.

对，而且别忘了，债务借贷本质上是把一部分人的资源，也就是储蓄，转移给另一部分人去投资。

Yeah, and just remember that what it is, a debt borrowing is taking resources from one group, savings from one group, and providing that to another group that invests it.

在这种情况下，就是把储蓄者的钱交给政府去替他们投资。

Now, in this case, it's taking it from savers and giving it to the government to invest for them.

在我看来，这未必总是最好的选择。

To me, that has not always been the best choice imaginable.

我觉得世界上还有其他投资者，比如沃伦·巴菲特，可能会更好地处理这笔钱。

I think there are other investors in this world who would probably do a better job, including Warren Buffett, of how they would handle that money.

现在，我们对里根也做了同样的事情。

Now, we did the same thing with Reagan.

我们借了很多很多很多钱，确实如此。

We borrowed lots and lots and lots of money, we did.

我们用这些资金来降低税率、增加国防开支、放松经济管制等等。

We used those funds to cut tax rates, to increase defense spending, to deregulate the economy and all that.

然后我们就坐等，祈祷它能奏效，而在里根时期确实奏效了。

And then we sat back and just hope to God it worked, and it really worked under Reagan.

在克林顿时期，当他偿还债务时，效果也相当不错。

It did pretty well under Clinton when he paid it back.

他在这方面做得很好。

He did a great job there.

然后在奥巴马、小布什、拜登以及其他人的领导下，效果非常糟糕。

Then under Obama and W and Biden and these others, it worked really badly.

所以当你看到财政部那边的这些情况时，所有这些因素都在起作用。

So when you look at these things on the Treasury there, you've got all of these things coming into play.

现在，财政部做的事情就是试图改变这些利率，尤其是搞了一个叫“扭曲操作”的东西。

Now, what Treasury has done is tried to change those interest rates, and especially doing something which is called Operation Twist.

我第一次听说“扭曲操作”是在1962年，六三年的时候。

I first became aware of Operation Twist in 1962, 'sixty three.

我当时是耶鲁大学的大四学生，詹姆斯·托宾，就是肯尼迪政府里搞“扭曲操作”的那个名人，他回来给我们班上了一堂课，就是讲“扭曲操作”。

I was a senior at Yale and Jim Tobin, who was famous for Operation Twist in the Kennedy administration, came back and did a lecture in my class, in the class I was a student in, Operation Twist.

他说我们应该做的是，尽可能卖出所有长期债务，然后尽可能买入所有短期债务，这样就能提高短期利率，降低长期利率。

He said what we should do is we should sell all the long term debt we possibly can and buy all the short term debt that we possibly can, thus raising short term interest rates, lowering long term interest rates.

如果我们把曲线压平的话。

If we Flattening the curve.

对，压平曲线，这样长期投资就更有吸引力，同时短期利率提高，能吸引其他国家的资本。

Yeah, flattening the curve, therefore making it much more attractive to invest in the long run and making higher short term rates to attract capital from other countries.

这样就能解决我们的国际收支问题，促进经济增长，哇，这简直是空手套白狼。

It'll solve our balance of payments and our economic growth and woo hoo, it's something for nothing.

当时就是这么回事。

That's way it was.

当然，这并没有奏效。

And of course, it didn't work.

这个操作完全被套利了。

The thing was arbitraged completely.

现在他们又在尝试一个新花样。

And we have a new one that they're trying now.

第一天长期利率大幅下降，结果第二天又立刻回升了。

And the first day long rates came way down, and then whoop, the next day they went right back up again.

我觉得财政部总体上不应该参与这种事情。

It is something that the Treasury I don't think should be involved in in general.

而且我认为财政部是在试图按他们老板的意愿行事。

And I don't think the Treasury I think they were trying to do what their boss wanted them to do.

特朗普想要更低的利率。

Donald Trump wants lower interest rates.

我也想要更低的利率，但我希望是因为通胀预期下降而降低，而不是因为市场干预。

And I do too, I want lower interest rates, but I want those lower interest rates because of lower expected inflation rather than because of the middling in the markets there.

我确实希望利率降低，就像他一样。

I really do want lower rates as he does.

但我相信他已经下了指示，虽然我对此没有内部消息，但财政部是为总统工作的，如果总统想要什么，那就是他们的职责去实现。

But he has instructed, I believe, and I have no inside information on this, but the Treasury works for the President, and if the President wants something, that's their job to make it happen.

没错。

Bingo.

我觉得事情就是这样发生的。

That's the way I think that's happening there.

而且我认为这效果不太好。

And I don't think it's working very well.

我觉得你看看今天的市场，相比一个月或一个半月前，美元在外汇市场上弱了很多，这很糟糕。

And I think when you look at the markets today versus, let's say, a month, month and a half ago, the dollar is much weaker in the foreign exchanges, which is bad.

金价之前停止下跌，那是非常好的。

Gold prices have stopped falling, which was very good.

现在又开始上涨了，这真的很糟糕。

Now have started rising again, which is really bad.

加密货币在涨，这其实是对美元投了反对票。

Cryptocurrencies are rising, which is a vote against the dollar.

现货大宗商品价格也在小幅上涨。

Spot commodity prices are rising a little bit.

所以短期内，我觉得通胀和利率的前景变得更糟了。

So in the very near term, I think the outlook for inflation, the outlook for interest rates has worsened.

这让我有点担心，但也不是特别担心。

And that concerns me, but not big time.

我的意思是，这算不上什么灾难性的崩盘。

I mean, this is no catastrophic collapse.

一年里你会看到四五次这样的波动，它们都会发生。

In a year, you'll have four or five of these movements like this, and they'll happen.

但这是值得关注的事情。

But it's something to keep your eye on.

最近关于利率、通胀等方面的经济数据都不太好。

The latest numbers in the economy with regard to interest rates, inflation, etcetera, have not been good.

最新的失业数据非常好。

The latest unemployment have been great.

那么总结一下，听起来你认为这个财政部操作扭曲是个噱头。

So just to summarize, sounds like you think this Treasury Operation Twist is a gimmick.

它不太可能奏效。

It's not likely to work.

这是财政部无论如何都应该参与的事情。

It's something the Treasury should be involved in anyways.

嗯，我不会说它是噱头。

Well, I wouldn't say gimmick.

这是尝试做一些我认为历史上没有成功过的事情。

It's an attempt at doing something that I don't think has worked historically.

当詹姆斯·托宾，耶鲁大学经济学高级教授，在白宫或当时与肯尼迪一起提出时，他说话很有分量。

Now, when James Tobin presented, the senior professor at Yale in economics at the White House or with Kennedy at the time, he spoke with a gravitas.

那不是噱头。

It wasn't gimmicky.

就是没起作用。

It just didn't work.

一旦你发现它没用，你就能明白为什么了。

And once you see it doesn't work, you can understand why.

经济学家和政治家在试图告诉商界人士该怎么做这件事上，真的很不擅长。

Economists and politicians are really bad at trying to tell business people what to do.

确实。

They do.

对。

Yeah.

我们在这方面真的很糟糕。

We really are horrible at it.

所以我很想知道，先提一下凯文·沃什。

So I'm curious, just to bring Kevin Warsh in for a second.

从他到目前为止所说的来看，他说，看，我试图做的一件关键事情是，从市场获取一个更加纯粹、不受干扰的信号。

From everything that he has said so far, he has said, look, one of the key things I'm trying to do is to get a much more unadulterated signal from the markets.

所以，当美联储、财政部或者任何人进行干预时，就会扭曲市场信号，而美联储在过去几届政府中在这方面已经做得炉火纯青了，对吧？

So when there's, when there's intervention by the Fed, by Treasury, whomever, that distorts the market signal and the Fed's kind of made an art out of that over the past several, administrations there, right?

他们总是尽量用口头干预，或者一有风吹草动就立刻介入操作。

Just trying to jawbone as much as possible or at the first whiff of discomfort stepping in and doing some operation.

所以，你知道，凯文显然是在说，看，没有什么信号比市场信号更值得我们反应了，但我们需要一个纯粹的市场信号。

So, you know, Kevin definitely seems to be like, look, there's almost no better signal we can react to than the market signal, but we need a pure market signal.

有趣的是，我觉得贝森，我是说，如果贝森不知道凯文一开始就是这个立场，我会很惊讶。

And it's funny because I think Besson, I mean, I'd be shocked if Besson didn't understand that that was Kevin's position coming in.

所以，我肯定他在理论上对此没有意见。

And, so, I'm sure he was fine with that in theory.

你觉得凯文·沃什现在是不是有点被坑了的感觉？

Do you think Kevin Warsh feels a little, sandbagged here?

你知道，就像，嘿，斯科特，我正想得到一个纯粹的市场信号，结果你突然就对利率指手画脚了。

You know, like, hey, you know, Scott, I'm trying to I'm trying to get an unadulterated market signal, and all of a sudden, here you go, putting your thumb on the on interest rates.

现在你有两件事要处理。

You have two things now.

说真的，斯科特·贝森特可是给唐纳德·特朗普干活的。

I mean, seriously, Scott Besant worked for Donald Trump.

而且他当然应该这样。

And and so he should.

唐纳德·特朗普是个好老板，为他工作很不错。

And Donald Trump's a great employer and a great person to work for.

凯文·贝森特为独立的美联储工作，那是另一回事。

Kevin Besson works for an independent Fed and a different thing.

他是美联储主席。

He's the Fed chairman.

特朗普走了之后，他还会在任很久。

He's going to be around long after Trump is gone.

我希望凯文·沃什能在这个位置上干上二十五年。

I think Kevin Warsh is going to be in that position for a quarter of a century, I hope.

所以，他和斯科特·贝森特的老板不一样。

And so, he has a different employer than does Scott Besant.

这两个人，如果抛开各自的职务，可能在所有事情上意见一致。

And the two of them in sort of without their jobs may agree on everything.

我不知道。

I have no idea.

但他们可能确实意见一致。

But they may agree.

可一旦他们有了不同的雇主，他们的行为就会不一样。

But once they get the different employer, they'll behave differently.

我是说，我以前给别人打工的时候，我也会努力让他们开心，即使我觉得那并不是世界上正确的事。

I mean, when I used to work for other people, I used to try to make them happy, even if I didn't think it was the right thing in the world to do.

你知道，你总是会倾向于你的雇主，这样做完全合理。

I mean, you know, you always try to tilt towards your employer and that's perfectly reasonable to do that.

好的。

Okay.

正因为你了解凯文，所以我想请你在这里推测一下。

And that's why you know Kevin well, so I'm gonna ask you to speculate here.

但你觉得他会心怀怨恨吗？

But do you think he is feeling resentful?

你知道，因为斯科特·贝森可能多少算是把他推上了那个位置。

You know, because Scott Bessen's maybe more or less put him in the chair.

或者他是不是还每周和斯科特吃早餐，然后说，嘿，斯科特。

Or or is he is he still having his weekly, you know, breakfast with Scott and saying, hey, Scott.

我知道，我知道你有点被逼着做这件事。

I I I know you I know you're kinda getting pressured into doing this.

我理解。

I get it.

但我现在还是想尽量不掺和进去。

But I'm still going to try to stay out of the fray for now.

我觉得这两种情况都不太可能。

I don't think either of those are true.

基本上想想凯文在每周、每月的政治运作中是怎么做的。

Think basically Kevin how politics works on a weekly, monthly basis.

他是美联储主席，任期长达四分之一个世纪，而不是只看这一周、这个月、这一年。

And he is the Fed chairman for a quarter century, not for this week, this month, this year.

我觉得他想做的，是在接下来的二十五年里，尽可能把通胀压到接近零。

And I think what he would like to do is get as close to zero inflation as he possibly could over the next quarter century.

这样美元就能保持价值，而且不会给劳动力市场带来严重的后果。

And so that the dollar maintains its value, and that it does so without having terrible consequences in the labor market.

看看现在的劳动力市场，他在就业方面的首要目标，根本没问题。

When I look at the labor market today, his first goal on labor, on employment, he doesn't have a problem there.

那个问题已经不存在了。

That issue is not alive.

通胀问题还在，我觉得他正专注于确保通胀不会卷土重来。

The inflation issue is alive and I think he's focusing on trying to make sure that inflation doesn't come back.

这也是他应该做的。

And that's what he should be doing.

而斯科特·贝森就不一样了。

And Scott Bessen's different.

他在为唐纳德·特朗普工作。

He's working for Donald Trump.

而且

And

不管他们是否同意，两人都会尽力讨好他们的雇主。

whether they agree or not separately, both of them will do their very best to please their employer.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，明白了。

Well, get that.

好的。

All right.

在我进入下一个话题之前，最近财政部出手干预，试图阻止日元崩溃。

Before I move to the next topic, recently the Treasury intervened to try to keep the yen from imploding.

问得好。

Good question.

对。

Yeah.

这是我花了一辈子研究的东西。

This is something I've spent my life on.

让我直接展开说说。

Let me just run with it.

日本实行利率政策已经不知道多少年了。

Japan has been doing an interest rate policy for bazillions of years.

他们的做法就是把利率维持在零。

What they do is they keep interest rates at zero.

他们做的就是不停地买债券，买债券，买债券，确保发行债券，债券，债券，保证利率保持在零，然后他们积累了巨额的债务。

And what they do is just buy bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds, make sure issue bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds, sure the interest rate stays zero, and they have this huge amount of debt.

但现在突然之间，我觉得他们遇到了一些麻烦。

Well, now all of a sudden, I think that they're having some problems.

我的意思是，在1989年，如果我没记错的话，日本的市值，也就是所谓的“恐惧之亚当”，和美国的总市值是一样的。

I mean, in 1989, I think the market cap of Japan, the Adam of Fear, if I'm not wrong, was the same as the market cap of The U.

美国。

S.

今天就不是了。

Today, it's not.

对，确实是这样。

By horns shut, yeah.

实际上，我们几乎都忘了日本曾经的地位。

In fact, we've all pretty much forgotten where Japan was.

他们在衰退，成了隐形国家，正在从地球上消失，出生率低，日本一切都出了问题。

They're diminishing, they're the invisible country, they're vanishing from the existence on the earth, birth rates are everything is going wrong in Japan.

现在突然之间，通胀、货币疲软这些问题开始冒出来了，确实如此。

And now all of a sudden the inflation, the weak currency stuff is starting to pop up, and it is.

现在这种情况，日元疲软，这可是前所未闻的现象。

Now with that happening, you have a weak yen, which is an unheard of phenomenon.

日元疲软，而他们正试图支撑日元。

You have a weak yen, and what they're trying to do is prop that yen.

支撑日元有两种方式。

There are two ways of propping the yen.

一种是通过收缩日本央行的资产负债表，减少市场上的日元供应量，从而让日元升值。

You can have Japan prop the yen by contracting the Bank of Japan's balance sheet and make the yen stronger by shrinking the amount of yen in the marketplace.

另一种是通过扩大美国的资产负债表来支撑日元。

Or you can prop the yen up by expanding the U.

也就是用美元买入日元，

S.

同时扩大美国的

Balance sheet by buying yen with U.

资产负债表。

S.

这样也能支撑日元。

Dollars and expanding the U.

对。

S.