Is It Becoming A Great Time For Income Investors? | Steven Bavaria

最近发生了很多事情，我几乎可以说投资者在某些领域对信贷几乎到了恐慌的地步，以至于他们把折扣推得很高。

There's been so much, I'd call it investor almost panic about credit in some of these areas that they've driven discounts very high.

所以有一个...

So there's a...

这是一个...

It it's a...

现在确实是做这件事的好时机。

It is a good time to do it.

欢迎收听《Thoughtful Money》。

Welcome to Thoughtful Money.

我是Thoughtful Money的创始人兼主持人，亚当·塔格特。

I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart.

今天非常高兴能坐下来聊聊收入投资的话题，我们请到了史蒂文·巴伐利亚，他再次来到我们的节目。

Very excited to sit down to have a conversation today all about income investing, and we're gonna have it with Steven Bavaria who returns to the program.

史蒂文是The Income Factory的创始人，这基本上是一个投资框架和平台，帮助投资者获得类似股票的回报，但利用信贷和类似信贷工具的安全性。

Steven is the founder of The Income Factory, which is basically a a framework in an investing platform to help investors get equity like returns but using the safety of credit and credit like instruments.

史蒂文构建了一个风险较低的收益型资产组合，包括高股息股票、优先债券、高收益债券、备兑看涨基金、业主有限合伙、封闭式基金、BDC等等。

Steven, builds a lower risk portfolio of income generating assets that include high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, master limited partnerships, closed end funds, BDCs, and more.

今天我很期待和你好好聊聊这些。

I look forward to talking all about it with you today.

史蒂文，非常感谢你来做客。

Steven, thanks so much for joining us.

谢谢你，亚当。

Thank you, Adam.

很高兴再次来到这里。

It's a pleasure to be here again.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴能在这个季节和你聊聊，你那边在佛罗里达，没有飓风来捣乱。

And it's nice to talk to you from your base there in Florida this time of year without having a hurricane barrel down on you.

我记得前两年秋天请你来的时候，你那边都在飓风警报中。

I think the past couple of falls we've had you on, you've been under hurricane watch.

是的，祈祷好运吧。

Yeah, cross your fingers.

现在还是季初，但一切皆有可能。

We're still early in the season, but, anything can happen.

我们很幸运。

We're lucky.

我住在杰克逊维尔附近，那里对大多数飓风来说有点避风港的感觉。

I'm up near Jacksonville, which is, we're kind of sheltered a bit from most of the hurricanes.

飓风要么得穿过佛罗里达，从西边过来会减弱，要么就在大西洋那边更远的地方。

They either have to cross Florida, which slows them down from the West, or they're out...

在大西洋更远的地方。

Further out in the Atlantic here.

所以祈祷好运吧。

So cross your fingers.

祈祷好运。

Fingers crossed.

我记得上周读了一篇文章，说这是大西洋上多年来第一次在这个时节没有风暴形成。

And I think I read an article last week that said it was like the one of the first weeks in forever of this time of year that where there were no storms forming, in the Atlantic.

所以希望今年飓风季对你来说影响不大。

So hopefully, this remains a low incident, hurricane season for you.

不过，史蒂文，我一直很期待和你聊聊，因为你专注于收益投资。

But alright, Steven, I've been really looking forward to talk to you because you're all about income investing.

而收益投资通常依赖于底层工具支付给投资者的收益率。

And income investing generally depends upon the yields that the underlying instruments are paying investors to own them.

任何关注债券市场的人都知道，今年收益率一直在上升。

And as anybody watching the bond market, you know, this year has seen is that yields have kept going up.

所以我的问题是，收益率上升对收益工厂策略有什么影响？

So my question for you is how has rising yields impacted the Income Factory strategy?

这是好事，还是也有代价？因为利率上升，债券价格会下跌。

Has it been a boon, or is there a is there a cost as well as as, you know, rates go up, bond prices come down?

对你的收益工厂策略来说，总体是利大于弊，还是弊大于利？

Has it been more or less net favorable or net net negative for your income factory strategy?

对于长期投资者来说，我们这些打算长期使用收入工厂策略来逐步建立自己的养老金的人，或者那些接近退休但仍继续积累并考虑部分使用的人，利率上升对我们来说可能是有利的。

For the long term, for those of us that are in it for the long term, you know, using an income factory strategy to kind of build our own pensions over time, or if we're closer to retirement, but we're still building them and we're thinking about using them in part.

从长期来看，利率上升对我们来说可能是个优势。

It probably is an advantage for us to interest rates rise over time.

但短期内，如果你是个短期交易者，比如在我通常持有的那类资产上，就像你之前提到的，短期价格会下跌。

But in the short term, if you were a short term trader, let's say, in the kind of assets that I tend to own, which you mentioned earlier, short term, the prices will go down.

但从长期来看，决定你收入的基数在上升。

But longer term, the base on which your income is determined is rising.

我会详细解释为什么会这样。

And I'll get into the little details of why that is.

当利率上升时，你持有的资产到期后的再投资收益率会提高，因为无论你持有的是三个月期国库券还是三十年期债券，利率上升后，这些资产的市场价格会立即下跌，因为如果这些债券或国库券在利率上升后重新发行，它们会提供更高的收益率。

But when interest rates go up, your reinvestment rate, when whatever you're holding, pays off, because when interest rates go up, whether you're holding a three month bill or a thirty year bond, immediate market price of that decreases because the same bond or bill, if it were being reissued that moment after interest rates went up, have a higher yield.

所以，由于你持有的收益率稍低，它的价值会下降，直到到期。

So since yours has a slightly lower yield, then yours will be worth less until, you know, till its maturity.

然而，当它到期时，比如三个月后，或者更准确地说，当利率调整时，你的工具利率会重新定价到新的收益率，其市场价值也会随之上升到与新资产相当的水平。

However, when it matures, which might be three months, you know, when its interest rate changes is what I should say, then you will, then the rate on your instrument will reprice to the new yield and the value of it priced in the current market will then jump up to whatever a new asset would be worth.

这意味着，对于我们这类资产，比如贷款、优先贷款和BDC（也就是那些发放优先浮动利率贷款的公司），这些都会在利率变化时立即重新定价，因为它们每个月或每三个月就会重新定价一次。

What this means is for our kind of stuff, which would be loans, senior loans and BDCs, which are just companies that make senior floating rate loans, those all reprice immediately when you've got changes in interest rates because they reprice every month or every three months.

所以，对于贷款、BDC以及任何浮动利率债务，你不会有任何利率风险或真正的久期风险。

So you don't have any interest rate risk, any real duration risk with loans and BDCs and anything that does floating rate debt.

所以它会不断重新定价。

So it'll reprice constantly.

所以你不会看到它的价格立即下跌，也不会看到你的收入下降或低于未来的市场水平。

So you won't see the immediate price of it go down and you won't see your income from it go down or be lower than the market price going forward.

现在，对于长期的东西，比如我们做的高收益债券，通常高收益债券的期限是五到八年。

Now, longer term stuff, like we do high yield bonds, which typically high yield bonds are maybe five to eight years in term.

我不想做固定利率的十年、二十年或三十年期债券，比如国债或长期债券，因为今天5%的收益率在三十年期国债上可能看起来不错，但也许它会涨到6%。

I wouldn't wanna do a fixed rate ten, twenty, or thirty year bond, treasuries or long term bonds, because there, 5% today might look nice on a thirty year treasury, or maybe it'll go up to 6%.

我不知道具体会怎样，但考虑到通胀、赤字以及其他因素，我不想以5%或6%的固定利率借出资金，锁定十年、二十年或三十年。

I don't know what it is, but I wouldn't wanna lend to anybody and have my interest rate fixed for ten, twenty, or thirty years at five or six percent, given what inflation might do and the deficit and everything else.

所以我不担心持有五年期债券，你知道，那些会重新...

So I'm not worried about having five year bonds, you know, that re...

你知道，那种每五年重新定价一次的高收益债券，你本来就已经……

You know, that reprice every five years, your typical high yield bond, where you're already...

一开始就能赚到百分之八、九、十甚至更多，而且会一直拿到到期。

You're making eight, nine, 10% or more on it to start with, and you're gonna get that until it matures.

所以它在市场上的即时价格可能会下跌，很可能真的会跌，但我不会卖掉它。

So it's immediate price in the market might go down, probably would go down, but I'm not gonna sell it.

你知道，我会持有这些基金好几年。

You know, I'm holding those funds for years.

所以当这些基金里的债券按面值收回时，不管期间利率市场怎么变，它们都能拿回百分之百的本金。

So as bonds inside those funds collect at 100%, they're gonna get 100% back no matter what yields do in the meantime in the interest rate market.

所以到最后，如果我的投资组合里有高收益债券——本来也只是组合的一部分——那么每年大概有百分之二十的债券会重新定价。

So at the end of, if I've got a portfolio with high yield bonds in it, which would only be a portion of my portfolio to begin with, then about 20% of those bonds are probably repricing every year.

你收回百分之百的本金，然后按更高的利率重新定价。

You're collecting 100%, repricing it at the higher rate.

与此同时，在你收回百分之百本金之前，你一直在收取你或者持有这些债券的基金当初购买时预期能拿到的那个利率。

And meanwhile, until you collect your 100%, you're collecting the rate that was, you know, that you expected to get when you or the fund that owns it bought the bond.

所以我觉得说到底，虽然解释这些有点技术性，但对长期投资者来说，我喜欢看到利率上升，即使我投资组合里的一些东西短期价格会下跌，反正我也不会卖，因为利率上升了。

So I guess bottom line, you know, this is a little nerdy explaining all this, but bottom line for a long term investor, I like to see rates go up, even if the thing, if some of what I'm holding in my portfolio has its short term price, which I'm not gonna sell it at anyway, go down because the rates go up.

我知道长期来看，我会赚得更多，因为基本上每种信用工具都有无风险利率，而变的就是这个。

I know that longer term, I'm gonna be making more on that because every credit instrument, basically, you have the risk free rate, and that's what changes.

当美联储调整利率时，它改变的是基准利率，也就是无风险利率，比如三个月期国库券之类的。

When the Fed changes the rate, it's changing the base rates, the risk free rates, you know, three month treasury bills, that kind of thing.

然后市场会在此基础上加上一个利差，作为我的信用风险补偿。

And then the market adds a spread to that for my credit.

所以我的信用利差已经在那里了，可能不会变。

So my credit spreads are already there, and it may not change.

变的只是底下的基准利率，这会慢慢推高我的收益。

It'll just be the base rate under it that changes, that slowly takes income up.

所以如果我在构建一个养老金计划，打算十年、二十年、三十年后领取，靠这些不同资产类别——有些是浮动利率，有些是固定利率——带来的现金流，并且我一直在再投资让它增长。

So if I'm building a pension that I wanna collect ten, twenty, thirty years later by having this river of cash from all these different asset classes, some of which are floating rate, some of which are fixed rate, kind of pouring in, and I'm reinvesting it to grow it all the time.

我不介意，甚至喜欢利率上升，因为我知道最终这会提高我拿到的总票息，因为利率，那个底层的无风险利率，如果利率持续上升的话，会一直增加。

I don't mind, I like it when rates increase because I know ultimately that's gonna increase the gross coupon that I get because the interest rate, the zero, what do you call it, the risk free rate at the bottom of it is increasing all the time if rates keep Okay, going

所以你对我的这个一般性问题的回答，我相信是肯定的，就是收益率这样上升，对收入工厂策略来说总体是好事。

so your answer to my general question, I believe is yes, It's a net good for the Income Factory approach to have yields move up like this.

那么，对于没看过我们之前访谈的朋友们，我们已经深入探讨过收入工厂是什么之类的。

Now, for folks that haven't seen our previous interviews, we've gone really deep into what the Income Factory is and whatnot.

朋友们，如果你们真的想深入了解，可以去看我之前和史蒂文做的那些访谈。

And folks, if you really want to get your arms wrapped around that, go watch some of the previous interviews I've done with Steven.

但你可以这样想。

But think about it like this.

就像房地产投资者一样，对吧？

Think about it like a real estate investor, right?

有人拥有一处房产，想从中收取租金。

Somebody who owns a property and they want to collect a rent from that property.

他们在持有房产期间，几乎不太在意房产本身的价值，因为他们短期内不打算卖掉。

They're almost impartial over the term at which they own the property of what the property value is because they're not planning to sell the property anytime soon.

他们只关心从房产上获得的租金。而这基本上就是史蒂文用他的策略在构建的——他正在建立一个多元化的信贷及相关工具组合，用来产生收入。

All they care about is the rents that they're getting off of that property And that's essentially what Steven is building with his approach is he's building a well diversified portfolio of credit and credit related instruments that generate income.

这就是他把它叫做收入工厂的原因。

And that's why he calls it an income factory.

当收益率上升时，这些工具就能带来更高的收益。

And when yields go up, well, those instruments are providing more income.

所以他很高兴，因为他的收入工厂正在发挥应有的作用。

So he's happy because his income factory is doing what it's supposed to do.

它产生了更多的收入。

It's producing more income.

与此同时，他对持有的具体资产价格并不特别在意。

He's kind of agnostic in the meantime with any individual prices of what he holds.

不过我想再深入聊聊这一点，Steven，因为如果你持有的是具体的工具，比如两年期或五年期的债券，对吧？

But I want to dig into that for a second, Steven, because I totally get it if you own individual instruments, like a two year, five year bond, right?

它的收益率是X。

It's yielding X.

你把它买下来。

You buy it.

债券收益率继续上升。

Bond yields continue to go up.

所以你的债券价格会下跌。

So the price of your bond goes down.

你其实不太在意，因为它会按你计划的那样支付给你。

You don't really care because it's gonna pay you what you planned for it to pay you.

它会在每个季度、每年或任何时间支付你那个票息。

It's gonna pay you that coupon every whatever quarter, year, whatever.

你只要持有到到期日，就能拿回全部本金。

And you'll just hold it to maturity and you'll get 100% of your principal back.

所以，你没有本金损失，而且一路上还能获得那些稳定的收入。

So, you're not taking any principal loss and you're getting all of that dependable income along the way.

那很好。

That's great.

那如果你持有的是基金呢？

What about if you're owning like a fund, right?

所以，你持有的是那种投资于各种不同类型信贷工具的基金，我觉得这也是你Income Factory投资组合的一部分。

So, you're you're you're owning one of these funds that invests in a whole bunch of different types of credit instruments and I believe that's part of what you hold in the Income Factory.

如果我说错了，你纠正我。

Correct me if I'm wrong.

这些基金对债券收益率的变化会有什么反应？

How do those things react to changes in bond yields?

它们是不是会立刻重新定价，然后你就亏损了？

Do they reprice immediately right away and you are taking a loss?

这种亏损会不会被基金里更高的收益率抵消？

Is that offset by higher yield in that fund?

当它不是你能持有到固定到期日的单一工具时，这种情况是怎么发生的？

How does it happen when it's not an individual instrument that you can hold to a set maturity?

其中的动态是怎样的？

What are the dynamics?

这个问题我知道困扰着很多我的读者，尤其是那些没有完全理解我们投资理念就进入市场的人。

That is the question that I know plagues the mind of many of my readers and especially those who kind of get into it without fully understanding what our philosophy is.

首先，我只买基金。

First of all, I only buy funds.

我只买封闭式基金和BDC，也就是商业发展公司，它和封闭式基金很接近，还有一些ETF，也就是交易所交易基金。

I only buy closed end funds and BDC, business development companies, which are a close cousin to a closed end fund, and some ETFs or exchange traded funds.

所以我只买你描述的那种高收益资产，大部分是信贷类的，有些是高收益股票，尤其是像覆盖看涨期权的基金、公用事业和基础设施类的，你可以从股票上拿到7%、8%、9%的票息。

So I only buy the high yielding assets that you described, most of which are credit, some of which are high yielding equities, and especially like covered call funds and utilities and infrastructure stuff where you can collect your seven, eight, 9% coupons on an equity.

大多数股票，如果收益率高到那个程度，通常意味着公司出了问题，快要削减股息了。

Most equities, when they go up that high, it usually means that there's something wrong with the company and it's about to cut its dividend.

但某些股票，比如公用事业和基础设施，支付那么高的收益率是正常的，所以我们在收入工厂里用它们。

But with certain ones, utilities and infrastructure, it's normal for them to pay rates that high, and so we use them in our income factories.

如果你持有一只投资信贷的基金，首先，如果是封闭式基金，正如你和你的听众、观众所知道的，封闭式基金可以以高于或低于其资产净值的价格交易。

If you own a fund that owns credit, first of all, if it's a closed end fund, as you know and your listeners do, what your viewers do, closed end funds can sell at premiums and discounts to their net asset value.

但我看的是它们的资产净值以及表现，也就是资产净值的总回报，作为它们表现是否成功的主要指标。

But I look at their net asset value and the performance, the total return on net asset value as the primary indicator of how successful they are in their performance.

因为如果你是长期持有者，最终资产净值，也就是你资产净值的总回报，很可能决定那只基金的长期价值。

Because if you're a long term holder, eventually the net asset value, the total return on your net asset value is what's going to determine probably the long term value of that fund.

因为如果基金价格上下波动，这种情况在……时更可能发生。

Because if if funds go up and down, which they're more likely to do when...

如果利率变化，而它被视为固定收益基金，比如高收益债券基金，那么基金价格很可能会像单只债券那样反应，因为市场就是有点……

If interest rates change and it's perceived as a fixed income fund, you know, a high yield bond fund, it's likely that the that the price of the fund will react the way an individual bond would because markets are just kind of...

市场已经被训练成这样了，你知道，市场被训练得……

They've been trained, you know, markets are trained to...

如果看到利率上升，他们就会压低那些收取这些利率的资产的价格。

If they see rates going up, they'll take prices of the assets that collect those rates, they'll take them down.

但最终，基金内部发生的事情和我们之前描述的持有单只债券的情况是一样的。

But ultimately, within the fund, the same thing is happening that we described happens if you own an individual bond.

这些基金按照合同利率，在到期日收取资产收益。

Those funds are collecting their assets at the contractual rate, at their, you know, at their maturity date.

任何债券或贷款投资都会有违约情况，但这些是可以预测的。

Now you do with any investment in bonds or loans, have defaults, but those are predictable.

而且有长期统计历史数据，让我们能够大致预测违约的可能性，并在你看折扣时进行衡量……

And there's long statistical histories that allows us to kind of project what defaults are likely to be and to, you know, gauge when you look at the discount of...

对于基金来说，这个折价是否考虑了……

On a fund, does the discount account for...

它是否足以覆盖可能的违约风险？

Is it sufficient to account for the possible defaults?

所有这些因素基本上都被压缩进了基金的定价里。

All that stuff kinda gets compressed into the into the pricing of the fund.

长期来看，如果你看净资产价值的表现，并且把溢价和折价随时间的变化剔除掉，那么它应该反映出和单只债券相同的基本要素。

The long term, if the net asset value, and when you look at the performance on the net asset value and you take away the premium and discount changes over time, that should reflect the same sort of essentials that would apply to a single bond.

换句话说，基金最终会反映出它能收回100%的本金，如果市场价格因为市场认为它可能收不回而下跌，比如因为利率变化之类的，那会影响短期价格，但不会影响长期价值。

In other words, the the fund is gonna reflect the fact that it's getting back a 100%, and if its price dropped by a market that thinks, well, it's not gonna it's not gonna get that back, you know, because the rates changed or something like that, that's gonna that's that's gonna affect the short term price, but not the long term value.

而且这也不会影响它支付分红的能力，因为分红是基于它从……获得的现金流。

And it's not gonna affect its ability to pay its distribution, which is based on the cash flow it gets from the...

它内部持有的各种贷款和债券。

All the different loans and bonds it owns inside.

所以如果我们确信它能支付我们8%、9%或10%的分红，而且我们正在看……

So if we're satisfied that it can pay us an 8% or 9% or 10% distribution, and we're looking...

我们一直在关注它的违约历史，以及所有可能影响它支付我们预期分红能力的因素。

We're following its default history and and all the things that would impact on its ability to make the distribution we're counting on.

如果短期价格波动，或者折价变大之类的，我们并不担心。

We're not worried if the short term price of the thing changes and the thing goes to a bigger discount or or something like that.

长期来看，我……

Over the long term, I'm...

如果我看的是五年、十年后的回报，这不会困扰我，而我就是这样来构建我的长期养老金和工厂产出的。

That's not gonna bother me if I'm looking five years and ten years out, which is what I what I am in building my long term pension and building the output of my factory, if you will.

好的。

Okay.

让我确认一下我理解得对不对。

So let me just make sure I understood.

所以当你持有这些持有大量信贷及类似信贷工具的基金时，嗯。

So when you're holding one of these funds that own all these credit and credit like instruments, Mhmm.

如果债券收益率上升，你经常会看到市场出现一种条件反射式的反应，价格相对于资产净值的折价会比之前更大。

If bond yields do go up, you'll often times see sort of a knee jerk reaction from the market where the price, trades at a greater discount to NAV than before.

不过你并不担心，因为你觉得自己如果持有更长时间，它会逐渐向净值靠拢，同时还能继续拿到你期望的收益率。

You're not worried though because you feel if you hold it for a longer period of time, it will correct more closely to its NAV over time while still paying you the rate that you were hoping for.

那我想问的是，如果基金里的债务工具到期后，他们以更高的收益率再投资，只要没有违约问题，基金的分红或收入会不会真的随时间增加？

And my question on that is, will the yield or the income from the instrument, from the fund actually start increasing over time if their debt instruments are maturing and then they're reinvesting them at higher yielding, yields as long as, you know, defaults aren't an issue?

嗯，没错。

Well, that's right.

是的。

Yes.

答案是肯定的，但就像很多肯定答案一样，这个肯定是有条件的。

The answer is yes, but it's, again, like so many yeses, a qualified yes.

如果是贷款基金，比如优先贷款基金或BDC，利率上升时，你会预期收益率会更快或更短期地上升，因为他们投资组合很快就能在几个月内享受到更高的利率。

If it's a loan fund, you know, a senior loan fund or a BDC and rates go up, you would expect then to have more of an immediate or a short term rise in rates because they're gonna get the benefit of their portfolio collecting higher rates right away within few months.

如果是高收益债券基金，这也是我分散投资、持有多种不同基金的原因，高收益债券基金应该能继续维持之前的分红，因为它获得的收入还是和之前一样。

If it's a high yield bond fund, and this is why I diversify and own a whole lot of different ones, a high yield bond fund will continue to make, it should be able to make its same distribution that it was previously making, because it is getting the same income that it was previously getting.

但它可能要到几年后才能显示出更高的收入，不是几年后，而是几个...

But it won't be able to show a higher income until maybe a few years out when when it's average, you know, not a not a few years out, but a few...

它的债券会开始到期。

It'll start having its bonds that mature.

它……

It...

它会用收益率更高的新债券来替换它们。

It'll replace them with newer bonds that have the higher yield.

对。

Correct.

不过，这需要一段时间才能影响到它的收入，达到那种程度……

However, that's gonna take a while to impact its its income to the extent...

所以它的收入不会像浮动利率基金那样快速上升，因为浮动利率基金的全部投资组合会立即受益。

So it won't have as quick a rise in its income as the floating rate fund that had 100% of its portfolio, you know, immediately go up.

但高收益债券基金更可能遭受价格打击，即市场价格下跌，因为它的大部分投资组合，甚至可以说全部投资组合，价值都在缩水。

Now the high yield bond fund though is more likely to take a price hit, a market price hit, because it's got a much greater portion of its, well, most of its portfolio, let's say, all of it, in fact, is worth less.

它的净值，也就是资产净值，实际上可能会下降，反映出它所持有的债券在市场上的价值比昨天利率上升前更低。

Its NAV, its net asset value might actually go down to reflect the fact that it's the bonds it's holding are actually worth less in the market than they were yesterday before the yields went up, before the interest rates went up.

但再说一次，如果你只是担心……那个价格下跌其实不应该影响到你。

But once again, that price hit should not affect you if you're just worried...

如果你只是关心和有兴趣收取分红，而且你并不真的在意价格下跌，因为你打算……

If you're just concerned and interested in collecting the distribution, and you don't really care that the price of it went down because you're gonna...

你打算长期持有它。

You're planning to hold it long term.

而且事实上，如果你是一个还在继续再投资的人，你知道，大部分……

And in fact, if you're if you're somebody who's who's still reinvesting, you know, most of...

大多数投资者在……

Most investors in...

你知道，如果你是在为将来的养老金做准备，你可能会把所有收入都收回来再投资。

You know, if you're building for a pension in the future, you're probably collecting and reinvesting all of your income.

所以即使价格……

So even though the price of...

如果你持有高收益债券，价格短期内可能会下跌，而且可能会持续一段时间，但你的收入会随着时间推移开始上升，因为它会再投资到更高收益的债券上，而你持有它，你收到的分红再投资到新的基金份额上，这些份额现在的价格更低。

If you have high yield bonds, the price may go down in the short term, and it may stay down for a while until your income though will start rising, you know, as time goes on, as it reinvests in higher yielding bonds, but you holding it, you're reinvesting the distributions you get in new, you know, in new fund shares, which are at lower prices now.

所以这其实是同样的赌注……

So this is sort of the same bet...

这和价格下跌时定投的好处是一样的，对吧？

Same benefit as dollar cost averaging when the price goes down, right?

你实际上是在

You're actually

没错。

That's right.

增加

Increasing

对，你投资金额的

Yeah, the size of your

我的意思是，

I mean,

这就是一个

that's one

收入工厂方法的一个特点就是，如果你看股票，不深入细节的话，比如你持有标普500，或者你持有指数基金，类似股息增长策略，或者你做的其他常规操作，我不是反对这种投资方式，但我觉得，要坚持这种股票投资策略，确实需要一定的勇气和毅力。

of features of an Income Factory approach is if you look equities, not to get into too much detail, but if you own the S and P 500, if you own an index fund, sort of a dividend growth type approach, or whatever you're doing, which is normal, I mean, and I'm not against that kind of investing, but it takes a certain amount of courage and true grit, I think, to hang into an...

在那种情况下坚持股票策略，当……

To hang on to an equity approach when...

因为利率……

Because rates...

你知道，我的意思是，因为价格会上下波动。

You know, I mean, because prices go up and down.

而且股票的话，你拿到的，比如标普500，收益率只有1%到1.5%。

And with equity, you're getting, like, the S and P 500, one to one and a half percent yields.

你指望的是，你赌的是每年平均再获得7%、8%或9%的资本增值，如果你想达到过去一个世纪那种9%到10%的股票回报率的话。

And you're counting on, you're betting on getting another seven, eight percent or 9% a year on average in capital gains if you wanna hit that nine to 10% equity, you know, return over the last century.

所以你在冒很大的……

So you're taking a big...

从我的角度看，你知道，你有很多东西都押在一直努力获取资本增值上。

From my standpoint, you know, you got a lot hanging on trying to get that capital gain all the time.

而如果我能拿到8%、9%或10%的现金收益，那我就不太担心需要资本利得，甚至即使价格下跌时我还能继续获得这些收益，就像刚才那个高收益债券的例子，那我实际上可以在更好的价格，也就是打折的价格，可能还有更高的收益率时重新投资，因为……

Whereas if I can get my eight or nine or 10% in cash, then I don't worry very much about needing a capital gain or even if if I'm continuing to get that when the prices go down like we just had in this high yield bond example, then I can actually reinvest at better prices, you know, bargain prices and probably higher yields because the...

当价格下跌的时候。

When when prices go down.

所以这就是……

So that's the...

这就是为什么你对资产价值的短期波动会采取更乐观的态度。

That's why you take a little bit more of a sanguine approach to short term changes in the value of your Right.

在收入工厂中，对你的资产。

Of your assets in an income factory.

我想说的是这个。

Here's what I'm trying to get to.

听起来你是在说，现在其实是采用收入工厂策略的好时机。

And it sounds like you're saying, right now is actually a pretty good time for the Income Factory approach.

我真正想搞清楚的关键问题是，如果有人对收入工厂感兴趣，但还没有开始，那么在债券收益率下降的环境下开始，还是在债券收益率上升的环境下开始，你会更倾向于哪种？

So the key question I'm trying to get down to is if someone's interested in the Income Factory and they haven't started one yet, would rather start would you rather be an entry income factory type investor in an environment with declining bond yields or an environment of rising bond yields?

说实话，我觉得是上升的时候，因为……

I think rising, frankly, because...

但这也要看你的替代选择是什么。

But it also depends on what your alternative is.

我的意思是，我把“收入工厂”当作股票投资的一个合理替代方案，但不是说它一定更好。

I mean, I present The Income Factory as a legitimate alternative to equity investing, but not necessarily better.

但如果你处在像现在这样的时期，比如说股票处于历史高位，那么你指望从今往后持续获得七八个百分点的资本增值，这个赌注可能更难实现，考虑到过去十到十二年股市已经涨了那么多，现在又这么高。

But if you're at a time like now, where let's say equity's at historical high, so where your equity bet that you're gonna make seven or 8% or so capital gains continually from here on out, might be a harder bet to achieve given what we've had in equity for the last ten or twelve years or so, given what a run it's had and how high it is.

所以我觉得，相对而言，作为一个赌注，收入工厂现在可能看起来比以往任何时候都更有吸引力，如果你的替代选择是股票，并且要承担那样的风险。

So I would say relatively as a bet, the Income Factory might even look better than ever right now if your alternative is equity with the kind of bet that that entails.

我也这么觉得，而且我其实接下来就想聊这个，不过先简单说一下。

I I I think so too and I I actually had this as the next thing to talk about real quick though.

就单看收入工厂本身。

Just looking at the Income Factory itself.

对我来说，似乎以较低的价格和较高的收益率买入，然后希望在未来几年甚至几十年里享受高收益带来的顺风，比在债券价格越来越高、收益率越来越低的时候进场要好，而后者正是过去四十年的情况。

To me, it would seem it'd be better to be buying in at lower prices and higher yields and riding the tailwind of higher yields hopefully out over the next couple of years, maybe decades, then getting in at higher and higher bond prices and lower and lower yields, which was kind of a story of the past forty years.

不是说它不管用。

It's not that it didn't work.

我只是觉得，你希望通过收入工厂策略获得的那种稳定、可靠、还能不断增长的收入，可能更适合我们现在所处的环境，也就是未来十年或更长时间里，债券收益率可能会长期上升。

I'm just saying it seems like the conditions for the type of income, dependable income, growing dependable income you're hoping to get from the Income Factory approach is probably better suited to an environment that we perhaps find ourselves in now of maybe secularly rising bond yields over the next decade or more.

哦，我完全同意。

Oh, I fully agree.

而且，说实话。

And, I mean, let's be honest.

我是说，我首先在找的是那种能穿越周期的资产。

I mean, I'm looking for, first of all, through the cycles types of assets.

我完全能接受我买的一些东西收益率是10%、11%。

I'm totally okay with the thought that I may buy certain things and they're paying 10%, 11%.

我是说，最近我们确实看到一些非常高的收益率，因为价格被压得很低，比如优先贷款、BDC，甚至那些投资所谓私人信贷的高收益债券基金。这些领域里，投资者几乎对信用问题感到恐慌，导致折价率变得很高。

I mean, we've had some very high yields lately because the prices have been so beaten down by some of these, you know, by senior loans and BDCs and, you know, even high yield bond funds that invest in what they call private credit and that sort of There's been so much, I'd call it investor almost panic about credit in some of these areas that they've driven discounts very high.

所以现在确实是做这件事的好时机，但我完全能接受，如果我有些东西之前收益率是11%，现在降到只有9%，而且持续几年。

So it is a good time to do it, but I'm totally okay if I if I have certain things that do drop down to only paying 9% for a few years that had previously been paying 11%.

再说一次，如果我还在再投资，而且我……

Once again, if I'm reinvesting at all and I...

而且它分散得很广，我大概也预料到不是所有……

And it's widely, you know, diversified, I kind of expect that not...

有些资产在不同时期会比其他的表现更好，但总体来看，你……

Some things are gonna be pulling their weight better than other assets at different times, but altogether, you know, you you...

我试着建立一个穿越周期的投资组合，不担心有时候收入增长快，有时候慢。

I I try to have a kinda through the cycle portfolio, not worry about if it's growing the income faster at some points and then other times it's not.

没关系，因为我还在再投资，并且在增长……

That's okay because I'm still reinvesting and and growing the...

你知道，随着时间慢慢增长。

You know, growing it over time.

对，我想总结一下我们之前讨论过的几点，不想在这里花太多时间重复，但我想确保听众明白。

Yeah, and I just wanna summarize a few things we've talked about in the past that, you know, I don't wanna spend too much time rehashing here, but I wanna make sure the audience understands.

所以，一般来说，这些话是我说的，不是你的，史蒂文，你基本上是在让小学数学的力量帮你长期成功，对吧？

So, you know, generally, and these are my words, not yours, Steven, you're kind of letting the power of elementary school math help you succeed over time here, right?

基本上你在说的是，我想获得类似股市的回报，但我不想承担持有股票所带来的风险。

Where essentially you're saying, look, I wanna get kind of stock market like returns, but I don't wanna take the risk that comes with owning equities.

而且

And

作为我唯一的，对，没错。

As my only, yeah, right.

如果我看这里的信贷市场，我可以做简单的数学计算，并且更有信心信贷工具承诺给我的回报真的会发生。

And if I look at the credit, you know, markets here, I can just do basic math and and have a lot more confidence that the return that the credit instrument is promising me is actually gonna happen.

我们之前谈过，当你处理信贷时，你基本上只处理一种风险，那就是生存风险，对吧？

And we've talked in the past about how when you're dealing with credit, you're basically dealing with just one type of risk, which is existential risk, right?

公司能否继续存活并持续支付债务服务款项？

Can the company stay alive and keep paying you its debt service payments?

你谈到过，公司上下各个层级的人都会齐心协力，尽一切可能让公司继续运营下去。

And you've talked about how there's alignment up and down the talent stack at companies to do everything possible to keep the company going.

CEO们的奖金都和这些挂钩。

The CEOs have their bonuses tied to all this.

员工们当然想保住工作。

The employees want to stay employed.

当你持有公司股票，也就是股权的时候，会有各种其他风险掺进来，宏观风险、市场风险、监管风险，再加上生存风险，全都堆在一起。

When you have a stock in a company, when you have equity, there's all sorts of other risks that get injected here, macro risk, market risk, regulatory, and they're just all, plus the existential risk.

所以你的风险要大得多，而且如果公司遇到困难，你的优先级也低得多。

So you have way more risk, and you have much lower seniority in case the company does get into hard times.

股权持有人通常拿不到什么钱，甚至一分钱都拿不到，而债券持有人，尤其是高级债券持有人，通常能拿回大部分本金。

Equity holders usually get very little, if anything, and the bondholders, especially the senior bondholders, get the vast majority of their money back usually.

所以基本上就是说，我想达到股票市场可能带来的那种回报水平。

So you're basically saying, look, I to try to get to around the same destination that the stock market could get me.

我只是想用更安全的方式达到那个目标。

I just want to get there with a lot more safety.

所以你就投资各种不同的信贷和信贷相关工具，就是我们一直在说的那些类似信贷的工具。

And so you know invest in all these different credit and credit related instruments, credit like instruments that we've been referring to here.

这样做的好处是，你可以算一笔账，说这个投资组合今年应该能给我带来9%的回报。

And what's great about that is is you can do the math and say okay this portfolio should get me 9% this year.

这个数字我就是随口说的。

And I'm just pulling that number out of a hat.

你对拿到那9%很有信心，而且能安全地拿到，晚上还能睡得着觉。

You have a lot of confidence you're going to get that 9%, and you're going to be able to get it with safety, and you're going to be able to sleep at night.

股权投资者，你说过，可能只从他们的股权里拿到1%或2%的股息，他们还得靠市场通过资本增值来补足剩下的部分。

The equity investors, you said, maybe only getting 1% or 2% in dividends off of their equity, And they've got to depend on the market to make up the remaining difference with capital appreciation.

而且从历史上看，平均来说，市场确实能做到，但不是每年都这样，对吧？

And historically, on average, the market does deliver that, but not every year, right?

所以有些年份你拿得多，有些年份你拿得少，有些年份你拿得特别多，有些年份你拿得特别少。

So some years you get more, some years you get less, some years you get a lot more, some years you get a lot less.

所以现在相对来看，考虑到目前的状况，债券收益率在上升，对吧？

And so now on a relative basis, given where we are right now, bond yields are rising, right?

所以谁知道它们会继续上升多久，但你现在确实感觉背后有顺风。

So who knows how long they're continue rising for, but you do feel you got a tailwind at your back right now.

在股权这边，2026年差不多快结束了。

On the equity side, 2026 is almost done.

如果今天就结束的话，我们已经连续四年股市回报率达到两位数，很多时候甚至超过20%。

If it were to end today, we've had four back to back to back to back years of double digit returns in the stock market, over 20% in many cases.

从历史上看，几乎任何估值指标都显示现在估值已经非常高了。

Valuations are very stretched based upon almost any valuation metric you look at historically.

所以股市在未来几年继续带来真正好收益的可能性很低，从统计上看就是很低。

So the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver really good gains over the next couple of years are low, and they're just low statistically here.

我讲这些的原因是想告诉你，这边有一篮子信用类工具，从数学上讲——我避免用“确定”这个词——但数学上高置信度的回报，而且还有顺风助力。

So the reason why I'm going through all this is to show you've got a very mathematically I'm avoiding using the word certain, but a mathematically high confidence return and a safe basket of credit based instruments over here with a tailwind against them.

而另一边，股市这边不确定性很大，而且胜算不在你这边。

And then you have a lot of uncertainty here with the odds not in your favor on the equity side.

所以，史蒂文，比起以前任何时候，我觉得现在真的是Income Factory策略的好时代。

So more often than any other time I've talked to you before, Steven, I feel like this really seems to be a great era in front of us for the Income Factory approach.

是的。

Yes.

要认识到这一点很重要，但别让我说得太过头了。

It's important to recognize that Don't let me overstate it.

如果我说得太过分了——不，不，不。

If I'm overstating it No, no, no.

你说得完全正确。

You are spot on.

我觉得对“收入工厂”保持谦逊也很重要。

I think it's important to be humble about The Income Factory as well.

从纸面上看，数学很明显，你可以……

On paper, the math is obvious that you can...

无论是10%的收益率加0%的资本增值，还是0%的收益率加10%的资本增值，总回报都是10%。

Whether you make 10% yields and 0% capital gains or 0% yields and 10% capital gains, it's the same 10% total return.

如果能做到的话，那很好……

And that's great if one can make...

如果能长期平均做到这一点的话。

If one can average that over time.

我在看……

I'm looking...

我承认，如果我有水晶球，早知道股市过去十年会涨成这样，

I'm admitting that had I known with a crystal ball that equity was gonna do what it did for the last ten years.

哦，你是拜登视频那个。

Oh, you're the Biden video

我可能根本就不会创办“收入工厂”，你知道，但过去那些年我有过经验，你知道，就坐在那儿看着股市不是那样的。

stock I'd have never started The Income Factory, you know, but I'd had experience in years past, you know, sitting there watching, you know, equity not do that.

所以，是的，我在看，你知道，从长远来看，三十或四十年里最好的方法是什么。

So, yeah, I'm looking at, you know, what's the best approach literally over thirty or forty years.

如果我是一个25岁或30岁的年轻人，为多年后的养老金投资。

If I were a 25 or 30 year old investing for the future for my pension many years later.

即使你60岁、65岁或70岁退休，你也可能活到90岁，所以你还是需要看得长远一点，不要把你收入工厂的所有产出都花掉，而是再投资一部分。

And even if you're 60 or 65 or 70 and retiring, you might live to be 90, so you still need to take a bit of a longer term view and not consume all your income factory output, but reinvest some.

但没错，这就是……

But yeah, this is...

你说的完全正确，这也是我一直以来所说的。

What you say is absolutely right, and it's the way I've always said it.

我也不觉得……

I also don't think...

过去一个世纪，股票的平均回报率大概在9%到10%左右。

The average equity return maybe has been nine or 10% over the last century.

我知道确实是这样。

I know it has.

但普通股票投资者，也就是那些按投资行业建议行事的人，实际上并不能在整个投资中获得那样的回报，因为他们通常会把65%到70%的资金投在股票上。

But the average equity investor, traditional investor who does whatever the investment industry tells them to do, doesn't really make that on their entire investment because usually they invest 65 or 70% in equity.

也许他们在股票上能获得9%到10%的回报，但接着他们又会……

Maybe they get the nine or 10% there, but they'll put then another...

他们会用30%的资金买债券来对冲，而直到最近，这些债券的收益率也就3%左右，同时他们还会留一些现金。

They'll hedge with 30% in bonds that until recently were paying 3% or so, and they were keeping some in cash.

把这些都加起来，如果长期平均能赚到7%到8%，那就算很不错了。

And you put it all together, and maybe if you'd make seven or 8% on average over the long term, you'd be doing very well.

所以，当我看到一种收入工厂策略，坦率地说，我不太担心对冲和其他资产的问题，我可以……

So when I look at an income factory where I'm not as concerned so much about hedging and other assets, frankly, I can...

我的目标，我个人做得更好，但我承担的风险比我会建议别人做的要多一点，因为我在信贷行业待了这么久。

My target, I've been doing better personally, but I've gone out on the risk, you know, a little bit further than I would advise everybody to do because I've been in the credit business for so long.

但是，是的，如果你能通过收入工厂长期实现8%的回报，那真的是一个非常好的结果。

But yeah, if you can make 8% with an Income Factory over the long, long term, I mean, that's a terrific outcome.

你知道，你的收入每九年或十年就会翻一番，再翻一番。

You know, you're doubling and redoubling your income every, nine or ten years.

确实如此。

It is.

再次，让我插一句来澄清这一点。

And again, let me just interject to clarify this point.

所以，我们现在坐在这里，是在经历了四十年债券收益率下降之后，对吧？

So, we're sitting here after forty years of declining bond yields, right?

你知道，它们在80年代初是百分之十几，然后基本上降到了零。

You know, they were they were in the high teens and the early 80s and they basically went down to zero.

就在几年前，对吧？

A few years back, right?

现在说这个还为时过早，但看起来确实已经触底了。

There's too early to say with certainty but it it certainly seems that they bottomed.

你知道，它们确实已经触底，而且已经回升了。

You know, well, they have bottomed and they have risen.

这就是过去几年发生的情况，从宏观角度来看，有很多理由相信，未来几十年我们可能会看到过去四十年趋势的反转，对吧？

That that has what happened over the past couple years and there's a lot on the macro side to say, know, over the next couple decades, we're likely to see the reverse of what we saw over the past forty years, right?

也就是说，通胀会长期走高，债券收益率也会因此长期上升。

Which is just sort of secularly higher inflation, secularly higher bond yields as a result.

所以我之前提到过，这种环境似乎比过去四十年更适合“收入工厂”策略。

So I mentioned earlier, that environment seems to be an even better environment for The Income Factory than what we had over the past forty years.

我说这些的时候你一直在点头，但我想确认一下我理解得对不对。

You're nodding as I'm saying this, but just, I wanna make sure I got that point correct.

是的，我完全同意你的看法。

Would Yes, you agree with that I would definitely agree with that.

好的。

Okay.

而且不确定性太多了。

And there's so much more uncertainty.

我的意思是，长期来看，考虑到我们的赤字等等，几乎不可能认为我们不会面临更高的通胀和更高的利率。

I mean, long term, we know that with our deficit and everything, it's almost impossible to think we aren't gonna have higher inflation and higher interest rates as part of all that.

回想八十年代，我买第一套房子时，房贷利率是15.25%。

I look back on the eighties, my first house I bought, my mortgage was 15 and a quarter percent.

我当时算是运气好，赶上了最高点，不过我不知道会不会再回到那个水平，但这就是我们面临的情况。

I mean, I was lucky I got in on the highest point, you know, but no, I don't know if it'll ever go to that, but that's what we're looking at.

而目前，我们的市场、政治以及全球地缘政治都存在巨大的短期不确定性。

And then currently, I mean, we've got a huge amount of short term uncertainty in our markets, in our politics, in our overall geopolitical around the world.

你知道，有战争、选举和经济压力。

You know, we got wars and elections and economic stress.

所以我们……

So we...

你知道，我觉得特别是要保持……

You know, I think particularly keeping things...

你知道，我觉得现在要是刚开始投资的话，股票不是个好选择，跟我们聊的这些比起来。

You know, I think equity is a is a poor bet right now if you were starting out in it compared to the kind of stuff we're talking about.

好的，这正是我要说的。

Okay, well, that's where I'm going.

总结一下你刚才说的，从长期视角来看，如果我们确实会看到利率的长期上升趋势，那对Income Factory策略的高层前景是有利的。

And just to summarize what you just said, kind of with a long term viewpoint right now, if we are indeed going to see a secular upward trend in rates, that's good for high level outlook for the Income Factory approach.

考虑到你提到的短期、眼前的不确定性，这些对股票的影响远大于对信贷的影响，这让现在采用Income Factory策略的理由更加充分。

Given the short term, the immediate uncertainties you talked about that would impact equity much more than credit, makes it even more compelling case for Income Factory right now.

我想把这个跟一个18岁、刚开始投资的人联系起来，对吧？

I want to tie this to someone who's like 18 years old and just starting out, right?

如果你能把你存的钱稳定地获得平均8%的回报，到你50多岁时，你就会成为千万富翁，对吧？

If you can get consistent average returns of 8% on the money that you save, you're going to be a multimillionaire by the time you're in your 50s, right?

如果你能做到这一点，你的人生就会过得很好。

You're going to do just fine in life if you can do that.

很多人会说，那就直接买标普500指数基金，你知道，长期平均来看，它会带你到达那里。

A lot of people will say, well, then, just own the S and P and you know, it'll get you there over time on average.

确实，那是历史回报率，未来可能也会保持这个水平。

True, that is the historical rate and that might be the historical rate going forward.

但考虑到我们讨论的这些长期变化，也可能不会。

It might not be though given some of these secular changes we're talking about.

现在，一个18岁的年轻人，我不是说他们一定要，但他们可以选择收入工厂策略，每年依然能获得8%以上的回报，而且更有信心，波动更小，晚上能睡好觉，风险也低得多。

Now, an 18 year old could, I'm not saying they necessarily should but they could adopt an income factory approach instead and still get eight plus percent every year with a lot more confidence, with a lot less volatility, being able to sleep at night, a lot less risk.

而且根据我们刚才聊的，如果未来确实有这种顺风，对你的策略有利，那么18岁的年轻人至少考虑一下这个方案也不是坏事。

And given what we just talked about, if the future does turn out to have this tailwind, again, behind it for your strategy, It wouldn't be a bad idea for an 18 year old to at least consider this.

再说一遍，我不是说每个18岁的人都该这么做，但对18岁的人来说，这是合理的。

Again, I'm not saying that every 18 year old should do this but but it makes sense for an 18.

如果你想在50多岁时成为千万富翁，收入工厂策略可以让你以更小的风险实现这个目标。

If you want to be a multi millionaire by the time you're 50s, the Income Factory can get you there with a lot less risk.

不过，我觉得对于年纪大一点的人来说，关注这个策略真的很重要。

I do think it's really important, though, for older people to be paying attention to this.

史蒂文，我知道通过调查，这个频道的大多数观众都是45岁或以上。

And most of the viewers of this channel, I know from surveying them, Steven, are 45 or older.

现在，美国投资大众在投资组合中对股票的风险敞口比以往任何时候都要高。

Right now, the American investing public has more exposure to equity than it ever has in its portfolios.

我们正在以历史上从未有过的方式加大风险投入。

We're just leaning into risk in a way that is greater than we ever have in history.

这个趋势本身就让人害怕，而且股票风险敞口的比例还随着年龄段的增长而增加，这本来应该是反过来的，对吧？

What's scary about that is that trend in and of itself, but the fact that the percent exposure to equities increases with the age cohort, which is it should be inversely related to it, right?

年纪越大，越应该依赖收入和信贷，在债券市场上采取更保守的策略。

The older you get, the more you should be leaning on income and credit and playing it safer in the bond market.

但我们现在并没有这样做。

But we're not doing that right now.

我觉得这是因为股市已经持续上涨了太长时间，人们都习惯了。

I think it's because stock market has returned such great gains for so long now that people are just used to it.

所以再说一次，无论你是年轻人还是老年人，至少应该考虑一下这种方法。

So again, I think whether you're young, whether you're old, you should at least be thinking about this approach.

但特别是如果你有很多资产，而且已经退休或即将退休，如果股市经历一次痛苦的均值回归修正，你没有太多时间来弥补损失。

But particularly if you've got a lot of assets and you're in retirement or close to retirement, you don't have a lot of time to make it up if the stock market goes through a pretty painful mean reverting correction here.

所以我不是说你一定要采用“收入工厂”策略，但我是说你真的应该好好评估一下自己的风险敞口，并且考虑像“收入工厂”这样的解决方案，作为你潜在解决方案的一部分。

And so not saying you have to do the Income Factory by any stretch, but I'm just saying you should be really evaluating your level of risk exposure and thinking of solutions like The Income Factory as part of your potential solution to it.

史蒂文，我一直在说这些的时候，你一直在点头。

You've been nodding a lot while I've been saying this, Steven.

哦，是的，因为你没有用但显然非常熟悉的术语，但你的部分观众可能不熟悉，就是“回报序列风险”。

Oh yes, because yeah, the term that you haven't used but are clearly totally familiar with, but some of your viewers may not be, is sequence of returns risk.

因为你说得对。

Because you're right.

如果我到了人生的那个阶段，可能是65岁，也可能是70岁，也可能是58岁，取决于每个人的情况，当你开始退休，需要开始定期从你的投资组合中给自己支付款项时。

If I reach that point in my life, which might be 65, it might be 70, it might be 58, depending on where people are, where you're starting to retire and you need to begin taking regular payments to yourself from your investment portfolio.

如果你持有退休基金，你会有R和D，这是最低分配要求。

And if you hold a retirement fund, you're gonna have R and D, it's requirement minimum distribution.

没错。

That's right.

你将会被迫

You're gonna have be forced to

取出来。

take them.

你会有最低分配要求。

You'll have required minimum distribution.

所以如果你大部分投资在股票上，即使你最近几年获得了不错的回报，但大部分收益来自资本增值，假设你需要取出4%、5%或6%，取决于你有多少钱。

So if you are mostly in equities, where even if you've been getting the kind of returns that people have in recent years, but where most of that is from capital gains, let's say you need to take four or 5% or 6%, depending on how much you've got.

比如，如果你有一个收入工厂，年收益率达到12%，也许你可以取出6%，但其他投资组合可能做不到。

Like if you have an income factory earning 12% yields, maybe you could take 6% or you might not be able to take that from some other portfolio.

但不管你是取4%还是5%，如果你每年都得靠这些钱生活，而且有些年份你的股票投资组合下跌了，或者你仍然有……

But whether you're taking four or five, whatever, if you have to take that every year to live on, and you have years where you've got an equity portfolio where it's gone down or, you you still have...

那你就得卖掉本金，而这些本金再也回不来了。

Then you have to sell capital, which you'll never get back.

你不得不永久性地减少你的本金，来支付你需要给自己的养老金。

You have to permanently reduce your capital to pay you the pension that you need to pay yourself.

如果你有一个收入型投资组合，或者叫收入工厂，或者随便你怎么称呼它，它每年能给你带来8%、9%、10%的现金收益。

If you've got an income portfolio, an income factory, or whatever you wanna call it, and it's earning you eight, nine, 10% in cash yield every year.