长期通缩主义者如今更担忧通胀 | 莱西·亨特

那里铁幕和竹幕倒塌后发生的一系列事件，极大地增加了劳动力供给，改变了供给曲线。

The events that occurred there with the fall of the iron and bamboo curtains really resulted in an unprecedented increase in labor availability and a shift in the supply curve.

规模非常大，但这个过程现在已经不再持续了。

It was enormous, and that process is no longer in shape.

欢迎来到《深思理财》。

Welcome to Thoughtful Money.

我是《深思理财》的创始人兼主持人塔加特，今天非常荣幸邀请到著名经济学家拉西·亨特，为我们带来特别报道。

I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Taggart, welcoming you here for a special report with the great economist, Lacy Hunt.

拉西，非常感谢你今天参与我们的节目。

Lacy, thanks so much for joining us today.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

亚当。

Adam.

一点也不，Lacy。

Not at all, Lacy.

我觉得再多的赞美都不足以形容你的职业生涯，你在这群观众中拥有庞大且实至名归的粉丝群体。

I I don't think there are enough superlatives for your career and you certainly have a massive and well deserved fan base amongst this audience here.

各位，这是一期特别节目。

Folks, this is a special report.

你们知道，这周我休假去徒步，庆祝我和妻子结婚二十五周年，能让我从假期里抽身出来的，只有Lacy Hunt。他最近发布了一份非常重要的报告，昨天打电话给我，说：‘Adam，我想好好谈谈这份报告里的观点。’

As you know, I am off this week taking a summer sabbatical going hiking and celebrating my twenty fifth anniversary with my wife, a wedding anniversary with my wife, and the only person who could pull me out of that would be Lacy Hunt and Lacy, released a very, I think seminal and important report recently and he called me up yesterday and said, Hey, Adam, I really like to be able to sort of expound on my thoughts on that report.

我可以来你的频道讲一讲吗？

Can I come on your channel to do so?

我说：‘Lacy，当然可以。’

And I said, Lacy, absolutely.

所以，在我休假的这一周，你们能看到这段额外的视频。

So you're getting this bonus video here while I head off for the week.

但Lacy，我觉得这份报告特别重要，可能让很多熟悉你职业生涯的人感到意外。

But Lacy, this is I think this is a very important one that maybe, you know, taking a lot of people by surprise who have known the arc of your career.

近年来，你一直以持通缩或缓释通胀观点的经济学家而闻名。

You've developed a reputation in later years as being more one of the noted deflationists sort of disinflationists.

但在这份报告里，你明确提出，未来最大的风险其实来自通胀方面。

And in this report, you are making a very strong case that you think the risk now going forward in the future future is on the inflationary side of things.

如果你不介意的话，我很想和你一起逐条梳理这份新报告。

So if you don't mind, I would love to walk through your new report with you.

我觉得这一切都得从你观察到的生产函数变化说起。

And I think it all starts with the changes that you see in the production function.

能不能先给不太了解这个概念的听众解释一下，什么是生产函数？再谈谈它和过去几十年相比发生了怎样的变化？

So why don't you start by describing that for people who don't know what that is and then explain how it is shifting from, say, how it's been for the past couple decades?

这正是关键所在，亚当。

That is the key, Adam.

生产函数是经济学中最基础的概念之一。

The production function is one of the fundamental concepts in economics.

顺便说一句，这个概念在微观和宏观层面都同样适用。

And by the way, it's valid in both the microeconomic level and the macro.

我可以把你的生产函数和我的放在一起，沿着整个链条一直叠加到全球层面。

I can take your production function and mine, we can aggregate them together all the way up the chain to the global.

生产函数告诉我们，经济产出——也就是实际GDP——是由生产要素和技术相互作用决定的。

And the production function says that economic output, real GDP, is determined by the factors of production interacting with technology.

生产要素包括劳动力、自然资源和资本。

The factors of production are labor, natural resources, capital.

从上世纪八九十年代柏林墙倒塌、亚洲的铁幕落下开始，我们经历了一个非常有利的生产函数阶段。

And for from the fall of the Berlin Wall and the bamboo curtains there in the late 1980s and early 1990s, we had a very favorable production function.

当时，我们引入了前所未有的大量廉价劳动力。

We brought in an unprecedented pool of new labor, low cost labor.

同时，企业能以全球最低的价格获取自然资源。

In addition, firms could obtain natural resources at the lowest price anywhere in the world.

所以成本不断下降，而且当你生产产品时，还能面向更广阔的市场销售。

And so costs were going down and in addition to that, when you're producing products you have a broader market to sell over.

规模经济是经济学里最重要的概念之一。

You know, economies of scale are the most important concepts in economics.

所以那个全球化时代，重点放在降低成本上。

And so the globalization era or the emphasis was on cost minimization.

但现在情况变了，我们正进入一个新阶段，发现全球化在战争、国家紧急状况和公共卫生等领域都会带来各种影响。

And now, however, the goals are shifting and we're entering into a period of time in which we've seen that globalization has consequences in a lot of different situations in wartime, national emergencies in health.

一些国家间长期存在的条约关系也开始瓦解。

The breakdown of some of the historical treaty relationships among countries.

因此，我们不能再把降低成本作为唯一目标了。

And so we can no longer have cost minimization as the goal.

在当今全球化的背景下，我们就拿半导体来说吧。

And so in the global era what you've had is you we, for example, take semiconductors for one.

和很多制造行业一样，先从设计和工程开始，然后进入开发阶段，接着采购原材料，把各种材料集中起来。

Like a lot of different manufacturing operations, you start with design and engineering and then you have to go through the development stage and then you have to buy the raw materials, bring the raw materials together.

有时候要进行晶圆制造，再经过组装、测试，最后是封装。

Sometimes there's fabrication, then you do the assembly process, the testing and finally the packaging.

在过去的全球分工体系里，各个环节都是根据比较优势来分配的。

And so in the global system, the functions were allocated based on comparative advantage.

但现在，你必须在生产链条的每个环节都具备能力。

But now you have to be able to do something of everything in the production chain.

这意味着你不再依赖市场的无形之手。

And that means that you do no longer honor the invisible hand.

过去，大型企业可以满负荷运转，分摊固定成本；而现在，你看到的是大量规模较小、产能利用率较低的生产单元。

And so in the old system, you could have very large enterprises operating at high capacity, spreading its fixed costs, and now you get a lot of smaller operations with lower capacity utilization rates.

这彻底改变了整个格局。

And that changes the whole mixture.

我们正从全球化时代步入后全球化时代。

And so we are moving from a globalization era into post globalization.

许多方面已经发生了变化，而我却没能充分意识到变化的速度有多快。

It has already changed in many respects and I'm remiss in fully understanding how rapidly it was changing.

与此同时，我们正进入资本稀缺的时期。

And at the same time, we're entering a period of capital scarcity.

过去资本过剩，实际利率可以持续走低。

We had a redundancy of capital and real rates could fall.

事实上，由于生产函数的变化，总供给曲线向上移动，这意味着GDP可以增长，而物价水平却同时下降。

And in fact, because of the shape of the production function which shifted the aggregate supply curve upward, which meant that you could expand GDP and the price level would fall at the same time.

但这种现象现在已经不再发生了。

That process is no longer occurring.

现在的生产，也就是总供给曲线，正在向内收缩。

The production, the aggregate supply curve is now shifting inward.

结果就是，GDP减少了，物价却上涨了。

And so you get less GDP and you get higher prices.

不仅如此，我们还进入了资本短缺的时期，这和过去的情况正好相反。

But in addition to that, we're entering a period of capital shortage, which is the opposite of what we had.

人工智能需要惊人的巨额资本投入。

The artificial intelligence is requiring unbelievably large amounts of capital.

但其他领域也同样需要资金支持。

But we have other sources that need investment.

比如，我们的电力基础设施正在老化，而与此同时，高科技领域的许多新项目又迫切需要电力支撑。

For example, we're going to have to we have a decaying electric grid at a time when it's needed for a lot of these new ventures in the high-tech world.

国防开支很贵，打仗更贵。

And defense spending is expensive, wars are expensive.

但就连为这种可能性做准备——现在这种情况已经成了现实——这个世界不再安全了，这也要花大钱。

But even preparing for such eventuality, which will now be on number, which is now in the picture, this is no longer a safe world anymore and that's expensive.

而偏偏这时候，我们的财政赤字已经高得离谱。

And that comes at a bad time for us because the budget deficit is immense.

我们根本没能把它降下来。

We weren't able to bring it down.

事实上，我们连降低赤字的余地都在消失，因为利息支出现在占联邦预算的比例，已经超过了国防开支。

And in fact we are losing our flexibility to bring it down because the interest expense now is a larger component of the federal budget than defense spending.

历史上一旦出现这种情况，往往都会出大问题。

And when that happens historically bad things have happened.

这进一步削弱了我们控制赤字的能力。

But that takes away from our ability to control the deficit.

如果通胀继续上升，利率就会上涨，不是每天都在涨，但趋势就是这样，这会让利息负担越来越重。

And if inflation is moving higher, then that means the rates are going to be moving higher, not every day, but that will be the trend which adds to the interest expense.

所以，现在的财政问题变得越来越明显了。

And so the fiscal problems now become more apparent.

在1990年到2020年这三十年间，我一直强调，债务具有抑制通胀的作用。

One of the arguments that I made throughout that thirty year period from 1990 to 2020 was that debt was disinflationary.

现在回头看，债务之所以抑制通胀，不是因为它本身的作用，而是因为当时生产体系的状况导致了低通胀。

And I think now in retrospect it was disinflationary not because of the primary role of debt but because of the condition of the production function that produced the lower inflation.

而这使得我们能够

And the this allowed That enabled

生产体系，对吧？

the production function, right?

正是得益于全球化和这些投资的推动，

That allowing for all the investments in globalization and all that stuff, yeah.

确实如此。

It did.

如果没有通胀上升和利率走高，你想想，当时供给曲线是向外扩张的，所以GDP增长了，但物价水平却没有跟着涨。

And without higher inflation and higher interest rates because you see the supply curve was shifting outward and so you had gains in GDP but the price levels.

但现在，生产函数却变得不利了。

And now, however, the production function is adverse.

所以真正产生这些影响的是当初的那些前提条件，而不是债务本身。

And so it was these other initial conditions that produced the effects, not the debt.

债务依然存在，而且依然是个问题。

The debt is still there and the debt is still a problem.

大约十七年前出过一本很有名的书，叫《这次不一样》，作者是莱因哈特和罗戈夫。

There was a very famous book that came out about seventeen years ago, it's called This Time is Different by Reinhardt and Rodolphe

而且

and

他们分析了债务对经济增长的影响。

they isolated the impact of debt on economic growth.

他们发现，债务水平越高，经济增长就越慢。

And they showed that higher levels of debt reduce economic growth.

他们还做了一些初步的研究。

And they they showed some preliminary work.

这并不是这本书的主要重点，但他们提供了一些证据，表明低增长对通胀和利率的影响并不明确。

This was not the main effort of the book, but they showed some evidence that the impact of the lower growth on inflation and interest rate was ambiguous.

换句话说，有些情况下通胀上升，有些情况下通胀下降，利率也是如此。

In other words, some of the cases inflation rose and in other cases it fell and likewise with regard to interest rates.

后来他们用另一种筛选方法发表了一篇论文，发现低增长确实带来了更低的通胀和更低的利率。

In a later paper using a different screening method, they found that the lower growth produced lower inflation and lower interest rates.

结合这些新增的信息来看，当初《这次不一样》中的原始结论其实是正确的。

And with the benefit of all of this additional information, it appears that the original findings in this time were different was correct.

债务可能带来较低的通胀和利率，也可能在其他时期产生不同影响，但它并不是关键因素。

The debt can have a positive or be associated with lower inflation and lower interest rates and then have other periods, but it's not the critical factor.

它可能会加剧问题，但真正的驱动力是生产本身。

It can exacerbate the factor, but it's the driving force is the production.

所以，这就是我们在规模问题上的立场。

And so that's where we are on scale.

好的，我能稍微停一下，把我对你刚才所说内容的简单总结复述一遍吗？我的理解是，生产函数已经发生了变化，基本上不再只关注如何以最低成本生产我们想要的东西。

Okay, so can I just take a beat here and give my simplistic summary of what I think you just said, which is the production function has changed, basically shifting from focusing on just how can we produce what we want with the lowest cost possible?

这得益于全球化，我们充分利用了大量低成本的劳动力市场。

And that was enabled by globalization where we tapped a lot of lower cost labor markets.

同时，很多市场也在发生变化——姑且这么说吧——把更多消费者纳入了全球经济体系。

We also had a lot of markets that were gentrifying, for lack of a better word, and being able to introduce consumers into the global economy.

中国就是个很好的例子。

China is a great example of that.

这些因素共同推动了经济增长，也让成本持续下降。

So these were things that were just letting growth flourish, and we're letting cost go down.

但现在情况反转了，我们正在把生产回流本土，还有像法国那样的回流，主要是出于国家安全的考虑，结果就是投入成本会上升。

Now that we've basically reversed course and we are reshoring, French shoring, all that type of stuff for reasons of national security, just input costs are gonna be higher.

劳动力成本肯定会更高。

You know, the the labor cost is gonna be higher.

现在资源竞争加剧，价格也跟着涨了一些。

Competition for resources now is making them a little bit more expensive.

所以，首先，投入成本正在上升。

So input costs are going up, number one.

第二点，由于资本日益稀缺，融资成本正在上升。

Number two, because of increasing capital scarcity, cost of capital is going up.

简单说，你想做生意，但所需的一切都在涨价，而用来购买这些东西的资金也越来越贵。

So basically, you want to do business, the things you need to do business are increasing in price, and the capital that you need to use to get those things is becoming more costly.

因此，这两点叠加起来，预计全球GDP会下滑。

So as a result of those two things, you expect GDP to come down.

换句话说，我们能做的经济活动会变少。

That being said, we'll just be able to do less economically.

话虽如此，我们之前欠下的债务还在那儿。

That being said, we still have all the debt we used to have.

现在这些债务的利息更高了，新借的钱成本也更高。

It's now just more expensive, and the cost of new debt is more expensive.

所以，债务偿还压力在加大，而经济活动却在收缩，这意味着全球的繁荣程度将不可避免地下降。

So debt service costs are going to increase even as economic activity is is getting constricted, which means just the amount of prosperity in the world is going to diminish.

我这样总结得对吗？

Did I encapsulate that correctly?

说得非常到位。

Certainly did.

一个字都不用改。

I wouldn't change the word.

当时铁幕和竹幕倒塌后发生的一系列事件，极大地增加了劳动力供给，彻底改变了供给曲线。

The events that occurred there with the fall of the iron and bamboo curtains were really resulted in an unprecedented increase in labor availability and a shift in the supply curve.

规模大得惊人。

It was enormous.

但现在这个过程已经不再持续了。

And that process is no longer in shape now.

明白了。

Okay.

我想快速聊一下你刚才提到的几个点。

I want to talk about a few things you mentioned but real quick.

我们之前确实受益于这两道幕布的倒塌，可以说是天赐良机，对吧？

So, we had this boon, this gift if you will, from those two curtains coming down, right?

这促成了那个极其繁荣的时代。

That enabled this the sun this very prosperous era.

有些人会说，好吧，莱西，但AI会让我们再经历一次这样的增长，对吧？

There are people there that would say, alright, Lacy, but we're gonna get that again through AI, right?

AI将会带来巨大的变革。

AI is gonna be super transformative.

我们会因此迎来一波空前的生产率提升。

We're gonna have a massive productivity boom from that.

在你看来，为什么AI未必能像之前那样拯救局面呢？

In your eyes, how is AI not necessarily riding to the rescue here?

我觉得它确实可以，也会提升生产率。

Well I think it could be, it will help productivity.

但问题是，要让AI真正落地，需要投入巨大的资源。

The problem is that it's going to need tremendous resources to put the operation into effect.

这需要大量的资本投入。

Significant capital is going to be required.

电网的重建，正如你所说，涉及的事情太多了。

And the rebuilding of the grid, I mean there's just a lot that goes into that as you said.

规模非常大。

Massive things.

所以一开始会大量消耗我们现有的资源，还会加快资金需求。

And so initially it's going to put a drain on our existing resources and accelerate our capital needs.

好处要等到以后才能看到，而且得是真像宣传的那么大才行。

The benefit will come later if the benefit is as great as is advertised.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

我们对成本还是比较有把握的。

We we're we're confident on the costs.

但具体能带来多大好处，现在还不是很确定。

It's a little bit more of a question mark on what the benefits are exactly going be.

是的。

Yes.

说得好，亚当。

Well said, Adam.

明白。

Okay.

所以对于人工智能来说，这既是个时机问题——意味着我们要在相当长的一段时间里先承受成本压力。

So so with with AI it is both a timing issue, meaning we're going to be taking the pain upfront for, you know, a decent period of time.

其次，还存在不确定性：我们希望真能获得巨大的回报，但说实话，我们也没法确定。

And then secondly, there's an uncertainty issue, which is we hope we're gonna get these great gains, but, you know, we don't know for sure.

确实不知道。

We don't.

我们真的不知道。

We do not know.

明白。

Okay.

所以在这期间

So in the mean

抱歉，你说什么？

Pardon me?

我们必须意识到，这对我来说是个学习过程，我相信对大家也一样。我们要根据接收到的新信息，适时调整自己的想法。

And we'll have to be be aware of of of this this is a learning curve for me and I presume for everyone else, and we're gonna have to take the new information as we receive it and adjust our thinking accordingly if possible.

好的。

Okay.

说到生产函数转为不利时，我觉得大家其实能理解我的意思：如果原本在缅甸的血汗工厂生产的商品，现在改在美国本地制造，劳动力成本会高很多，这部分成本最终得转嫁给消费者。

So when it comes to the production function turning adverse, I think people again kind of I think they can understand what I said, which is just, hey, you instead of having some sweatshop in Myanmar make a product if it's being made here in The US, the labor costs are just going to be a lot more expensive, and that's going to have to be passed along.

再详细说说资本稀缺的问题。

Talk a little bit more about capital scarcity.

为什么资本正变得越来越稀缺？国内储蓄在这个过程中又扮演了什么角色？

Why exactly is capital becoming more scarce and what is the role of domestic savings in that picture too?

你得从这个角度看

Well, you have to look

要同时考虑它们，因为这不只是你表面的需求。

at them simultaneously because it's not just your gross needs.

实际的储蓄必须等于实际的投资。

Physical saving must equal physical investment.

换句话说，要想有投资，就得有来自收入的储蓄。

In other words, to have the investment you have to have the saving on income.

美联储解决不了这个问题。

The Federal Reserve cannot solve that.

美联储可以制造流动性，但造不出储蓄。

The Federal Reserve can create liquidity, but it cannot create saving.

所以如果他们试图用制造流动性来解决问题，只会加速货币流通、经济增长和通胀，反而让问题更糟。

And so if they attempt to solve the problem by creating liquidity, that will accelerate money and growth and inflation, which would actually exacerbate the problem.

对我们来说，关键问题是国民净储蓄——历史上，国民净储蓄占国民收入的比例自1929年有数据以来，一直维持在7%左右。

So here is the critical issue for us is that net national saving, which historically is running as a net national saving as a percent of national income has historically run since 1929, which is the beginning of the data at close to 7%.

而现在，它已经跌到历史最低点，接近零了。

And now it's very close to the all time lows near zero.

虽然还没到上世纪30年代大萧条或者雷曼倒闭、全球金融危机时那么糟，但也已经非常接近了。

It's not as bad as it was during the Great Depression of the 1930s or of the failure of Lehman and GFC, but it's it's very close to it.

那至少你觉得原因是什么？

And so And at least what say What do you what

你认为为什么会这么低？

do you attribute it being so low to?

毕竟，人们可能会说，我们现在远没到大萧条或者金融危机那种地步。

Because, you know, one could argue, we're not anywhere near a great depression or the great financial crisis.

失业率很低。

We've got low unemployment.

股市几乎创了历史新高。

We've got almost record high stock prices.

在你看来，为什么会这么低？

In your mind, why is it so low?

这背后的原因其实非常复杂。

Well, that's a very complex part of it.

也就是说，国民净储蓄包含以下几个部分。

I mean, so net national saving has the following components.

包括家庭储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄，还有外国储蓄。

We've got household saving, corporate saving, government saving, and then foreign saving.

在通货紧缩期间所实现的那部分增长，并没有平均分配。

And the households this growth that we achieved during the period of disinflation was not distributed equally.

我认为这是政策失误造成的，而且是严重的政策失误。

And I think this was a result of policy failure, very serious policy.

所以这就像K型经济，偏向有资产的人，而忽视了普通劳动者？

So this is the K shaped economy, the favoring of those who own assets versus the working stiffs of the world?

我不太想这么表达，但迈克尔·斯宾塞——以前斯坦福商学院的院长，和他当时的学生一起写过相关研究。

Well, I wouldn't I don't wanna phrase it that way, but but Michael Spence, who was the former dean of the School of Business at Stanford writing with his student then.

顺便说一句，我上学的时候他就是我的院长。

By the way, he was he was my dean when I was there.

明白了。

Okay.

他和凯文·沃尔什合写了一篇著名论文，研究了量化宽松和前瞻性指引的作用，这一做法从伯南克主席开始成了标志性政策。

Well, he and Kevin Walsh wrote a famous paper in which they looked at the role of quantitative easing and forward guidance, and which was became the hallmark, starting with Chairman Bernanke.

这本是为了给货币政策增添一个新的工具。

And this was supposed to provide another tool of monetary policy.

当通胀下降、利率触及零下限时，他们就开始实施量化宽松，同时发布前瞻性指引。

So when inflation went down and the interest rates were caught at the zero bound, they began quantitative easing and they started issuing forward guidance.

他们塑造了一种广为接受的观点：美联储在需要时总会出手，为金融资产提供流动性，必要时还会提供不必要的价格支持。

And they created a view that became widely accepted that the Federal Reserve, whenever needed, would step in and provide liquidity and and unnecessarily price support if needed for financial assets.

但当然，美联储没法对实物资产做出这样的保证。

And, and but of course, the Federal Reserve cannot give such a guarantee to real assets.

没错。

Right.

问题就在这儿。

Here's the problem.

投资金融资产并不能提升人们的生活水平。

Investment in financial assets do not raise the standard of living.

真正提升生活水平的是对实体资产的投资。

It's the investment in the real assets that raise the standard.

我同意，不过我觉得，拥有金融资产的人确实生活水平提高了。

I would agree, although I think I would argue that it does raise the standard of living for those who own financial assets.

嗯，

Well,

我指的就是这种普遍的生活水平。

that's what I'm talking about, the generalized standard.

是的。

Yes.

你说得有道理。

Point is well taken.

所以我们经历了金融化的过程。

And so what we did is we had financialization.

股市表现很好，但在这段时间里，生活水平却反常地持续下滑，我们现在的实际人均GDP增长率，远远低于1870年代到1970年代的历史平均水平。

And the stock market performed very well, but the standard of living, you know, during this time period worked irregularly lower and we're way down from our historical average rate of growth in real per capita GDP that we experienced from, you know, the 1870s to the 1970s.

这太令人痛心了。

It's very tragic.

所以，通过所谓的美联储宽松政策和前瞻性指引，美联储促使企业部门将投资从实体资产转向金融资产。

And so by providing the so called Fed put, the Fed and giving forward guidance, they caused a redistribution of investments in the corporate sector toward financial assets and away from real assets.

没错。

Yep.

还有，拉西，我接触过一些专门投资自然资源和实物资产的人，他们一直在警告，由于企业把收益金融化，对勘探和开发投入严重不足，未来资源短缺的问题会越来越严重。

And Lacy, for a number of folks that I interview who are specialists in investing in natural resources, you know, hard assets, they have been warning and continue to warn about coming periods of resource scarcity because exactly that, that companies really underinvested in their exploration and development because they were financializing their earnings.

顺便说一句，我同意这个观点，这也是资本短缺这一现象的另一个因素。

By the way, I would agree with that, and that's another element in this period of capital scarcity.

我用‘资本短缺’这个词来形容这种情况，就是这么来的。

And that you know, I developed that term to apply to this situation.

我不确定会不会有人把这归功于我，但就算没人认，我也这么看。

I don't know whether I'll get credit for it, but maybe I didn't, but that's what I think.

那我乐意把这说法的功劳归给你。

Well, I'm I'm happy to give you the attribution for it.

所以，Lacy，你基本上是在说，未来我们会再次面临更高的投入成本和更高的资本成本。

So Lacy, you're basically talking about how going forward, we are going to have, again, higher input prices and higher capital prices.

这就是通货膨胀。

So that's inflation.

但同时，GDP 很可能会下降。

And but likely to have lower GDP.

整个经济都将陷入人均 GDP 较低的境地。

We're we're basically the the entire economy starts experiencing with the lower half of the Lower per capita GDP

增长放缓。

growth.

我关注的是人均增长，它只会变得更弱。

That's what I'm So looking Per capita growth, it's just gonna be even weaker.

是的。

Yep.

我好像没在报告里看到‘滞胀’这个词，可能我漏掉了，但你是不是在预期一种滞胀的前景？也就是增长放缓，但成本却在上升？

So I didn't see this word in case I missed, I might've missed it, but I don't think I saw the word stagflation in your report, but are you sort of expecting a stagflationary future here because the lower economic growth, but higher costs?

我觉得整个时期会是这样，因为接下来会发生的是总供给曲线会向左移动。

I think that the general period will be one because what's gonna be happening is that the aggregate supply curve is gonna be moving inward.

需求曲线是向下倾斜的。

The demand curve is downward sloping.

所以你会看到价格上涨、实际增长放缓，至于会不会出现停滞或负增长，那就取决于其他各种因素了。

So you're going to what you're going to do is you're going to get higher prices and lower real growth, whether it leads to episodes of stagnation or negative growth that will depend on a whole host of other circumstances.

明白了。

Okay.

但我不想淡化周期性因素和其他力量的作用。

But I don't want to minimize I don't want to minimize the role that will be played by cyclical and other forces.

它们都会存在。

They're going to be present.

是的。

Yep.

结构性因素才是主导的。

Structural are going to be the dominant.

第六项目标将起到辅助作用。

The sixth goal will be in a supporting role.

因此，经济衰退仍会时不时出现，我认为，相比全球化顺利时期的那段日子，现在要避免衰退会更困难。

And so you could have recessions from time to time and it's gonna be more difficult to avoid them, I believe, than during the favorable, during the period of globalization.

理论上，也有可能出现另一场方向相反的供给冲击。

Conceivably you could still have another supply shock that goes in the other direction.

我们必须对此保持警惕。

We have to be alert to that.

目前来看，短期内并没有这样的迹象。

It doesn't appear to be one on the horizon.

另一个需要关注的因素是，我觉得我们现在面临的是货币供应量过高的问题。

Another element in the picture is that I think we have a money supply problem on the upside right now.

我认为，新任美联储主席的表态是，他会把货币增长控制在合理水平。

And I think that the rhetoric of the new Fed chairman is that he will bring money growth into a reasonable level.

但这里又有个问题：如果他们把自去年12月以来快速扩张的货币供应量压下来，就意味着私人部门得承担更多政府和其他机构的融资需求，而美联储的参与会相应减少。

But here again, that's a problem, because if they if they bring this fast money supply growth that's been occurring since mid December downward, that will mean that the private sector will have to absorb more of the capital needs for the Treasury and the others and less by the Fed.

但低通胀的好处要过一阵子才会显现。

But the the benefit of the lower inflation will come later.

所以你得先经历一段收紧货币增长的过程。

So you have to go through the period of reducing the monetary growth rate.

你刚才展示的这张图非常重要。

This is a very important graph that you put up.

从12月中旬开始，我们实际上已经实施了量化宽松。

And since mid December, we've actually had a case of quantitative easing.

这是一种隐蔽的宽松政策。

It's a stealth easing.

美联储说这只是一个资金调配操作。

The Fed said it was a plumbing operation.

美联储和银行当时需要更多储备金。

The Fed the banks needed reserves.

它们的储备金实在太紧张了。

They were they were in a too tight reserve position.

如果真是这样，那么在购债之后，流动性应该会变成闲置资金。

If that were the case after this bill buying, then the bill purchase liquidity would have gone into idle balances.

但实际情况是，银行存款和信贷出现了急剧增长。

But instead, it resulted in a dramatic surge in bank deposits and bank credit.

在我看来，这正是通胀率在中东战火点燃之前就开始飙升的原因之一。

And that's, in my opinion, one of the reasons why the inflation rates started accelerating even before the first shots were fired in The Middle East.

由于这个所谓的‘管道操作’——别管它叫量化宽松——美联储额外的流动性一直在涌入系统。

Because of this quote unquote plumbing operation, don't call it QE, but additional liquidity of the Fed was pushing into the system.

真正能说明问题的，是银行存款发生了什么变化。

And the proof of the pudding is really what happened to bank deposits.

我觉得这一点，再加上ODL的数据，如果你能把那个图表放出来，我们就能看清楚。

And I think that that and also to ODL, if you can put that chart up, we can.

我可以。

I can.

给我一秒时间。

Give me just one second.

来，看这里。

Here we go.

就在这儿，稍微一点。

Is a little right here.

之前的政策阶段。

Outgoing regime.

我们来看一下，比如第一项：贷款和租赁总额。

So let's look at, for example, at total loans and leases line number one.

自六月以来，年增速达到8.3%。

Since June, an 8.3% annual rate.

我把这些数据都和过去十年的平均增长率做了对比。

I compared all of these to the ten year rate of growth.

我选了十年这个周期，是为了把疫情期间银行信贷和货币的激增也包含进去。

And I took the ten year because I wanted to include all of the the pandemic surge in bank credit and money.

这比十年的平均水平高出330个基点。

So, you know, that's three thirty basis points more than the ten year average.

看看C和I贷款，从十二月中旬到现在，增长了14%，而十年平均只有三分之二左右。

Look at look at C and I loans since mid December, 14% versus three and a fraction.

再看ODL，它占M2的80%，我认为这是衡量货币最准确的指标。

And we come on down to ODL, which is 80% of m two, I believe the best measure of money.

它的增长率达到了8.9%，是十年平均增速的1.6倍。

And we've had an 8.9% rate of growth, which is 1.6 times the ten year rate of growth.

这速度太快了。

That's too fast.

如果美联储刚开始注入流动性时，银行真有储备不足的问题，它们本该先积累闲置资金。

If the, if, when the, when the liquidity started coming in from the Fed, if there were a reserve insufficiency, they would have built up idle balances.

但银行却迅速扩张资产负债表，这说明它们根本没多少闲置资金。

The fact that they went out and expanded the bank balance sheet so rapidly was a sign that they didn't have idle balances.

它们当时是被美联储限制住了。

They were being constrained by the Fed.

所有涌入的流动性，立刻就被用在了银行资产负债表的急剧扩张上。

And all of the flush liquidity was then immediately put to use in an explosion in the bank balance sheet.

我觉得这是个问题。

And I think that's a problem.

我不认为不采取行动它就会自行扭转，这意味着如果美联储没有决心，那么离任的美联储管理层所采取的措施只会让通胀问题更加严重。

And I don't believe that it's going to reverse itself without the Fed taking action, which means that if the Fed doesn't have the resolve, then the action taken by the outgoing Fed administration will greatly exacerbate the inflationary problem.

这种货币激增使得油价上涨和其他通胀因素得以传导到整个经济中。

This this monetary surge allows for the oil price increases and the other elements in the inflationary picture to be passed through.

上世纪1974年石油禁运期间，伯恩斯领导的美联储也做过类似的事。

Similar was made by the Burns Fed in 1974, the time of the airborne embargo.

当时冲击一来，经济最初确实疲软了。

When it hit, the economy initially weakened.

伯恩斯美联储误以为这只是周期性衰退，反而加快了货币供应增长。

The Burns Fed thought it was a cyclical recession and they accelerated money supply growth into it.

这使得油价上涨被直接转嫁到了物价上。

That allowed the oil price increases to be shoved through.

伯恩斯后来想控制货币和信贷增长就困难多了，他加息了，结果引发了严重的经济衰退。

And Burns had then a much tougher job to restrain money and credit growth and, and they raised interest rates and he produced a nasty recession.

美联储现在陷入了非常棘手的境地。

The Fed's in a very terrible bind here.

这还不是他们陷入困境的唯一原因，我们还经历了流动性的大幅逆转，还有货币流通速度的变化。

And that's not the only reason they're in a bind, but we've also had this significant reversal in liquidity, I mean, and the velocity of money.

你能不能把那些图表放出来，我们看一下。

Maybe you could put those charts up and just take a look at them.

当然可以。

Sure.

快速提一下，我们从十二月开始看到的流动性激增，其实是上一任管理层启动的。

And real quick, just want to note here that that spike in liquidity that we've seen since December, That was initiated under the old regime.

现在新官上任，态度要强硬得多。

So we do have a new sheriff in town who is talking a much more hawkish game.

他在提名过程中就明确表示，不喜欢玩资产负债表这一套，觉得资产负债表已经太高了。

He's kind of basically said during his appointment process, I don't like playing with the balance sheet, and I think the balance sheet's way too high.

所以我的任务就是把资产负债表缩回去。

So my job is pretty much to shrink that balance sheet.

所以，这明显和自去年十二月以来PALFID的做法背道而驰。

So obviously, that would be doing the opposite of what the PALFID was doing since December.

你提到他面临一些挑战。

You mentioned he's got some challenges facing him.

你觉得哪一方会占上风呢？

What do you think is going to prove stronger here?

是新主席沃什的决心更强，还是像货币流通速度上升这样的其他压力更大？

The new Chairman Warsh's resolve, or these other challenges like the increase in velocity of money?

这很难说，但我认为他们必须尽快停止购债。

Well, it's hard to say, but I think that they have to cease the bill purchases as soon as practical.

我不确定，即使美联储主席真想这么做，他能不能得到董事会或联邦公开市场委员会的支持。

And I'm not sure that even if the Fed chairman were wanting to do that, whether he has the support of the board or the FOMC.

这跟沃尔克八十年代末上任时不一样，那时候他得到了董事会和FOMC的全力支持。

It's not like the Volcker, when Volcker came in in the late 1980s, he had the support of the board and the FOMC.

没错，他当时是有明确授权的。

Right, he had the mandate.

是的。

Yeah.

而且在这里，我的意思是，

And here, I mean It's

沃什并没有明确的授权。

not clear that Worsch has a mandate.

他不得不成立委员会来为FOMC提供指导，而最终决定权仍在FOMC内部。

Has to he's had to set up committees that will bring guidance to the FOMC, which within the FOMC has the final say.

所以目前的情况很难判断。

And so the situation is, is hard to know.

但我觉得当务之急是尽快停止购债，不过不可能一夜之间就停掉。

But I would say the first order of priority is to end the bill purchases as and they can't be ended overnight.

得慢慢缩减。

You have to wind them down.

但即便如此，你仍然面对一个6.7万亿美元的资产负债表，它造成了严重的资源错配，还对美国经济增长产生了负面影响，把增长重心从实体投资转向了金融投资。

But that still leaves you with a $6,700,000,000,000 balance sheet that has led to a serious misallocation of resources and had this deleterious effect on American economic growth shifted growth away from from real investment to financial investment.

这些事情根本做不到。

And those things cannot be done.

请记住，正如我之前说的，缩减资产负债表会把这些未偿负债的融资更多地推给私营部门，这意味着其他领域必须被挤出。

And keep in mind, by shrinking the balance sheet, as I said earlier, then that shifts the funding of these outstanding liabilities more to the private sector, which means that things have to be crowded out.

扩大资产负债表很容易，但要逆转它，难度要大得多。

This is this is it was an easy to put the to expand the balance sheet is going to prove far more difficult.

让资产负债表恢复正常。

To normalize the balance sheet.

是的。

Yeah.

你说的‘恢复正常’，是指让现有资产自然到期，还是觉得美联储真的会主动出售一些持有的债务工具？

And by normalizing, do you think that it'll just be letting what's on the balance sheet mature or do you actually see a worse Fed selling some of the debt instruments it does?

短期国债可以到期，但这其实无关紧要，因为当它们重新招标时，如果美联储不再大量购买，私营部门就得接手更多。

The bills can mature, but that's really immaterial because when they go to auction and the Fed doesn't buy as many, that means the private sector has to pick more.

这确实是个步骤，不管怎样，私营部门都得掏钱。

It's a step, yeah, either way, yeah, the private sector is having to make money.

让它们自然到期，国债组合是可以逐步到期的。

Letting them roll, but the bill portfolio can roll off.

他们没必要实际卖出这些资产。

They don't have to physically sell them.

对。

Right.

但如果美联储卖出一些期限较长的债券，岂不是会进一步推高资本成本？

But if the Fed were to sell some of the longer dated stuff, I mean, just exacerbates the capital, the increase in capital costs, right?

没错。

That's correct.

会有更多短期国债涌入市场。

More bills flooding.

但我都不觉得他们能立刻实施这种操作。

But I don't even think that that's feasible for them to undertake that immediately.

是的。

Yeah.

而且别忘了，正如你之前说的，政府在财政方面还在持续出现巨额赤字，他们其实指望美联储能至少在短期债券市场上消化掉一部分。

Well, and also we're talking about just the Fed for don't forget here as you said earlier, the the government is on the fiscal side is still running these large deficits, and they're they're kinda hoping the Fed is gonna mop up some of that, at least on the short end of the curve.

所以如果美联储不再这么做，那赤字问题就会变得

So if the Fed stops doing that, I mean, that that does make the deficit spending

严重得多，对吧？

a lot more problematic, correct?

确实如此。

Does.

没错。

Does indeed.

明白了。

Okay.

我们来看看这里。

So, let's see here.

你得提醒我一下具体是怎么关联的，你之前提到过，好像是费雪方程式。

You're gonna have to remind me exactly how it plays in here, but you mentioned, I think the Fisher equation.

是的。

Oh yeah.

费雪方程式啊，我之前提到过，我们绝对不能忽略费雪方程式。

The Fisher equation didn't I have to the role think we must never lose sight of the Fisher equation.

它指出，长期国债收益率由三个因素决定。

It says that the long term treasury bond yield has three determinants.

分别是实际利率、通胀预期和风险溢价。

It has the real rate, inflationary expectations and the risk premium.

风险溢价常常被遗忘，因为大家默认国债由政府发行，所以没什么风险溢价。

The risk premium is largely forgotten because it's presumed that if the treasury issues it, the treasury doesn't really have a risk premium.

那现在的情况是怎样的？

So what is happening?

实际利率会因为我说的那些原因继续上升。

The real rate is gonna be rising for the reasons I outlined.

我们正进入一个资本短缺的时期。

We're going into a period of capital shortage.

通胀环境会上升，这意味着随着时间推移，通胀预期会走高，投资者会要求更高的期限溢价，也就是长期利率和短期利率之间的利差会扩大。

The inflationary environment is gonna increase, which means over time inflationary expectations will rise and investors will demand a larger term premium, a larger spread of the long rate versus the shorter rates.

现在

Now

利息支出我觉得是个非常重要的变化，部分原因是伟大的经济历史学家尼尔·弗格森在胡佛研究所做的研究。

the interest expense I think ultimately is very significant development, part because of the work of the great economic historian, Neil Ferguson, who's at the Hoover Institute.

尼尔通过大量的档案研究证明，当一个经济体的利息支出超过军费开支时，就开始走向显著的衰退。

Neil, through massive archival research, has demonstrated that economic powers begin significant decline after the interest expense becomes more important of the budget than military spending.

但我想再推进一步。

But I want to take it a step further.

随着时间推移，利息支出不断上升，我认为会推高风险溢价。

The rising interest expense over time, I think is gonna raise the risk premium.

利息支出表明，过去我们没解决的财政问题，现在正在让前景变得更糟。

The interest expense is a sign that past fiscal policy problems we didn't correct are now going to worsen the outlook.

所以未来，费雪方程的这三个组成部分都在指向利率上升。

And so going forward, all three components of the Fisher equation point to higher rates.