Market Starting To Crack Under High Bond Yields? | WMR 9 24 26

这太潜移默化了。

It's so subliminal.

所以你得小心，别以为结果就是事实，它们就是那样。

So you have to be careful to think that the results, sometimes the results are just facts and they are what they are.

但我猜他们正在想办法把广告塞进结果里。

But my guess is they're trying to figure out how to get advertising into the results.

不过，那个位置。

However, that placement.

虽然，我想他们应该有……

Although, I guess they have...

我是说，他们难道不需要披露这个Gemini结果是受我们赞助商影响的吗？

I mean, wouldn't they have to disclose that this Gemini result is influenced by our sponsor?

当然。

Sure.

那又怎样？

So what?

那人们会不会就不用了？

Is that people gonna stop using it?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我就是不知道他们现在是不是已经这么做了。

I I just don't know if they do that today or not.

我没查过。

I haven't looked.

嗯，亚当，你说得对，你知道，谷歌……

Well, Adam, to your point, you know, Google...

有……

Have...

我以前这么干过。

I've done this before.

所以我想住芝加哥的凯悦酒店。

So I wanna stay at the Hyatt in Chicago.

所以我输入了“芝加哥壮丽大道凯悦酒店”。

So I type in Hyatt Chicago Magnificent Mile.

那里只有一家凯悦。

And there's one Hyatt there.

前三个广告看起来都像凯悦的。

The first three ads all look like the Hyatt.

它们是赞助广告。

They're sponsored ads.

如果你点击其中一个，你会以为你是在通过凯悦预订房间。

And if you click on one of them, you think you're booking a room through Hyatt.

实际上你是通过某个中间商预订的。

You're booking it through some intermediary.

所以它们已经在那里了，真正的凯悦酒店官网可能排在列表第五位，真正的hyatt.com，排在第五位。

So they're already there where the Hyatt Hotel is probably the fifth one down on the list, the real hyatt.com, the fifth one down on the list.

所以它们已经在那里了，而且上面写着“赞助”，人们还是会点击它们。

So they're already, and it says sponsor, and people still click them.

所以我不太确定，你知道，这会有什么不同。

So I'm not sure, you know, it's gonna make any difference.

对人们来说，这仍然是所谓的免费信息。

It's still quote unquote free information for people.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，那说得通。

Well, that makes sense.

当然，谷歌现在做得很好。

And of course, Google's doing just fine.

所以至少在短期内没什么问题，但我还是对这件事感到困惑。

So no issues there, at least in the near term, but I still do scratch my head about this one.

好吧。

All right.

我要换个话题了，迈克尔，但在那之前，快速提一下今天视频的赞助商，Coveron。

I'm gonna switch topics here, Michael, but really quick before I do, just a quick note from today's sponsor of this video, Coveron.

如果你和我一样，通常不会太在意身份盗窃，直到为时已晚。

If you're like me, you don't really think that much about identity theft until it's too late.

我不觉得自己有多重要。

I don't think of myself as that important.

除了这个节目，我就是个普通人。

This show aside, I'm just a regular guy.

但罪犯不是这么想的。

But that's not how criminals think.

在他们眼里，我们都是潜在的肥羊。

To them, we're all potentially lucrative targets.

而且现在他们手里有了越来越强大的人工智能技术，偷我们钱的手段也变得更复杂、更难察觉。

And now that they've got increasingly powerful AI tech in their arsenal, their attempts to steal our money are becoming even more sophisticated and hard to notice.

身份盗窃不是一瞬间发生的。

Identity theft doesn't happen in one moment.

它是慢慢渗透的。

It creeps.

它一开始很小，这里一封垃圾邮件，那里一次我没做过的登录尝试，还有一次我从未要求过的密码重置，你我都容易忽略。

It starts small, a spam email here, a login attempt I didn't make there, a password reset I never asked for, easy for me or you to ignore.

就像我说的，这不仅仅是一次攻击，而是一种缓慢的暴露，在不同账户间反复试探，直到某个环节终于崩溃。

Like I said, it's not just a single attack, it's a slow exposure tested again and again across different accounts until something finally breaks.

而一旦崩溃，它不会自己停下来。

And once it does, it doesn't stop on its own.

现在，Cover 手表监测的正是这种模式：暗网泄露、可疑活动，那些单独看起来没什么的小事。

Now, cover on watches for exactly that pattern, dark web exposure, suspicious activity, the small stuff that seems like nothing on its own.

你会及早收到警报，真正采取行动，而不是三个月后才后知后觉。

You get alerted early enough to actually do something about it instead of finding out three months later on down the road.

所以，如果你曾经忽略过一条奇怪的登录提醒，心想那可能没什么，这正是它捕捉到的时刻。

So if you've ever brushed off a weird login alert thinking, that's probably nothing, that's exactly the moment this catches.

别等到大事发生。

Don't wait for the big moment.

小事就是警告。

The small ones are the warning.

一次诈骗就能让你失去一切，所以现在就保护好自己。

One scam can cost you everything, so protect yourself now.

前100名用户使用代码Adam Taggart在coveron.com/adamtagart可享受20%折扣。

And the first 100 users get 20% off with code Adam Taggart at coveron.com/adamtagart.

好的，你最后提到的就是企业债务的重新评级。

Alright, and then the last thing you mentioned was, the rerating of corporate debt.

这个话题已经讨论了一段时间，而且也在进行中。

This has been a specter for a while and it's been underway for a while.

说实话，我一直很惊讶，怎么这么少……

And I've, to be honest, I've just been surprised at how few...

你知道，我们……

You know, we...

记得几年前，大家都在谈论僵尸企业，说一旦债务重新评级开始，它们都会倒闭。

Remember a couple years ago, it was all talk about the zombie companies, and, they were all gonna die once, the debt rerate started.

我的意思是，这其实一直在发生。

I mean, it's been going on.

当时有……

There was...

我记不清去年公司债务到期续期的规模有多大，但我觉得今年差不多接近一万亿。

I can't remember how much last year's corporate maturity rollovers there were, but I think this year is like close to a trillion.

我真不知道这些公司是怎么撑下来的。

And I just don't know how these companies are making it.

确实，如果你是超大规模云服务商，现在现金流很充裕。

I mean, yeah, if you're a hyperscaler, you're flush with cash right now.

但如果不是，你的债务利率从多少涨到多少？

But if you're not, you know, your your debt is going from what?

大概从4%涨到8%左右？

Like, 4% to 8% or something like that?

有可能。

Possibly.

而且如果是小企业，涨幅可能更大。

And if you're a smaller business, even more.

你知道，每家公司的情况都不一样。

You know, and every company is different.

今年年底到明年，会有一大笔债务到期。

There is a big wall of debt that comes due later this year throughout next year.

所以我们就看看接下来会怎么发展吧。

So we'll see how that works through.

但你也可以选择直接还清债务。

But you can also just pay down your debt.

再说，要还清债务，你可能得削减资本开支、裁掉一些员工、卖掉办公楼，或者做任何必须做的事情。

And again, to pay it down, you may have to reduce CapEx, fire some employees, sell an office building, do whatever you have to do.

所以，你知道，这些公司到底怎么应对更高的利息，或者干脆把它算进利润里，还不清楚。

So, you know, it's not clear how these companies are going to deal with higher interest or just take it to the margin.

但话说回来，市场看起来……

But again, you know, market seems...

感觉比实际情况好很多，就是因为那十家、十二家、十五家公司。

Feels a lot better than it is because of ten, twelve, 15 companies.

有很多公司，尤其是小公司，正在挣扎，而且随着利率上升，它们会更加艰难。

There's a lot of companies, especially smaller companies that are struggling and will struggle with these higher rates even more so.

我完全理解，特别是如果利率和收益率继续上升的话。

I mean, I totally get why, especially if rates and yields keep going up.

我只是惊讶我们还没看到更多这样的情况。

I'm just surprised that we haven't seen more of it yet.

你说得对，公司能做的事情，裁员肯定是其中之一。

And to your point of the things that companies can do, you know, laying off workers is definitely part of it.

而且我们现在的失业率，是的，如果你看裁员追踪器，裁员确实在发生，但如果你看失业率，我们仍然接近充分就业。

And we still are at, yeah, I mean, if you look at layoff trackers, layoffs are going on, but if you look at, the unemployment rate, we are still close to full employment.

看看招聘率。

Look at the hires rates.

不，招聘率有点冻结了。

No, it has been somewhat frozen.

但如果你看持续申请和初次申请失业金的人数，人们似乎仍然能够保持就业或找到工作。

But if you look at continuing claims and initial claims, people are still they still seem to be able to remain employed or get a job.

我是说，到了这个阶段，我本来以为失业率会更高，就业数据会更差的。

I mean, it's, it's, it, I would have expected a higher unemployment rate and worse employment numbers at this point in the process.

所以这就像房地产市场一样。

So it's just like the housing market.

如果你只看房价，你会觉得市场没问题。

If you just looked at housing prices, you'd say the market's fine.

房价一直有点停滞不前。

Prices have been kind of stagnant.

但一旦你揭开那层盖子，你会发现其实没有房子在卖，没人买，也没人卖。

But once you pull off that cover, what you realize is there's no houses selling or no one's buying, no one's selling.

实际上什么都没发生。

There's really nothing going on.

劳动力市场也是一样。

That's the same with the labor market.

如果你看JOLTS报告里的招聘率，它非常低，而且还在持续下降，但是……

If you look at the hires rates from jolts, it's very low and it keeps declining, but...

而且就业增长非常非常缓慢。

And payroll growth is very, very slow.

所以就是没什么活动。

So there's just no activity.

人们没有被裁员，但也找不到工作。

People aren't getting laid off, but they're not getting jobs.

这倒也没什么。

And that's fine.

就是……

That's...

可以说算是好事吧，但要是裁员的话就没有缓冲，因为没人招人。

I guess you could call it good, but there's no cushion if there's layoffs because no one's hiring.

好的。

Okay.

那这样一来，就是真刀真枪见真章的时候了。

So rubber meets the road then.

我不会拿这个来要求你。

And I'm not going to hold you to this.

这不是预测。

This isn't a prediction.

我只是想听听你的直觉。

I'm just looking for your gut feel here.

我觉得你对2027年债券收益率走势的回答是，它们最终会达到一个水平，你觉得它们会下降。

I think your answer to what's going to happen with bond yields in 2027 is at some point they're going to hit a level that is, you you think they're going to come down.

它们要么自然下降，要么达到一个让事情开始出问题的水平，然后，你知道，高利率会催生低利率。

They're either going to come down naturally, or they're going to hit a level where things start to break and then, you know, high rates beget low rates.

而且也许即使情况变得足够糟糕，当局也会介入帮忙，美联储开始降息而不是加息之类的。

And maybe even if things get bad enough, the authorities come in to help out, and the Fed starts cutting versus hiking and stuff like that.

那整体经济呢？

How about just sort of the general economy?

你展望明年的时候，是更乐观还是更担忧？

When you look at your outlook for next year, are you more bullish or concerned?

有点担心，但用个不太恰当的词来说，这是个K型经济。

A little concerned, but it's a lack of a better word, it's a k shaped economy.

如果把数据中心增长剔除掉，我们几乎没什么经济增长。

Strip out the data center growth, and we've had almost no economic growth.

所以一年后我们可能会发现，哎呀，经济一直在以2%到3%的速度增长。

So we may be in a position where we're here a year from now, we said, oh, the economy's been growing 2% to 3%.

但AI数据中心给这个数字加了4%，而其他经济部分则是负增长。

But AI data centers have added 4% to that number and the rest of the economy was minus a little bit.

所以这就是为什么我觉得现在AI支出这么关键。

So it's kind of that's why I think AI spending is so vital right now.

它的影响不仅限于股市，对经济的影响也很大。

It's just its impact is not just on the stock market, but on the economy is big.

所以这个问题很难回答。

So it's a tough question to answer.

我觉得，你知道，我们还有点...

Do think, you know, we're kind of still...

我知道这个季度看起来会非常好，但我们已经连续几个季度在1.5%到2%的区间，现在可能看到2%到2.5%的增长。

I know this quarter is looking like it's going to be really good, but we've been in the 1.5% to 2% range there for a few quarters, and we're probably looking at 2% to 2.5% growth.

显然，我们正面临利率带来的越来越大的阻力。

Obviously, we have this growing headwind with interest rates.

而且，即使利率保持在现在的水平，这个阻力也会越来越大，因为它影响到一家债务在12月到期的公司。

And again, even if interest rates stay exactly where they are today, that headwind gets bigger and bigger because it is impacting a company whose debt matures in December.

这个影响要到12月才会显现。

That won't be felt till December.

我现在不需要新车，但六个月后可能需要。

I don't need a new car, but I may need one in six months.

那时影响才会落到我头上。

That's when that impact will hit me.

所以长期利率的影响需要一段时间。

So those long term rates take a while.

短期利率的影响会来得更快。

Short term rates are gonna happen quicker.

而且我觉得也很重要的一点是，要提醒大家利率确实非常重要。

Well, and I I just think it's important too to remind people that it's it's interest rates are very important.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

但信贷市场里不只有利率。

But it's not just interest rates in the credit market.

还有债券收益率，对吧？

It's bond yields, right?

所以利率可以保持不变，但债券收益率可能会上升。

So interest rates can stay flat and bond yields can go up.

今年大部分时间基本上就是这个情况，对吧？

That's basically what's been happening for much of this year, right?

所以，即使美联储从现在开始按兵不动，如果债券收益率继续上升，整个企业信贷体系还是会承受越来越大的压力，对吧？

So it says the even if the Fed stands pat from here, right, if bond yields keep going up, it keeps putting increased pressure on the whole corporate credit system, right?

那什么因素可能导致债券收益率继续上升呢？

And what could cause bond yields to keep going up?

嗯，油价可能会继续上涨，对吧？

Well, oil prices could keep going up, right?

而且还有很多因素可能让债券投资者对未来更加担忧，不管美联储怎么做。

And there's just number of factors that could still keep bond investors more concerned about the future, kind of irregardless of what the Fed does.

所以我想强调的是，这不仅仅是利率或者美联储的利率政策的问题。

So I just want to make sure that it's not all about interest or the Fed's interest rate policy.

更重要的是整个债券市场的整体感受。

It's just how in general the bond market feels.

所以我觉得真正需要关注的是实际收益率。

And so what I think is really important to follow is real yields.

它能告诉你……

That tells you...

它大致能告诉你收益率是紧缩的还是宽松的。

It it kinda tells you how restrictive yields are or how easy yields are.

它衡量的其实就是债券收益率。

So all it's measuring is a bond yield.

比如说五年期国债收益率是5%，而且昨天刚拍卖了一批五年期国债，收益率就是5%。

Say the five year bond yield, is 5% and just they auction off a five percent bond yesterday.

然后你看五年期的盈亏平衡通胀率，这个是基于通胀保值债券（TIPS）的通货膨胀预期。

And if you look at the five year breakeven rate, so that's inflation expectations based on tips.

这不是调查问卷得出的。

That's that's not surveys.

这是债券市场的真金白银在起作用。

That's bond market money being put to work.

那些是真正的投资者在告诉你他们认为通胀率会是多少。

Those are real investors telling you what they think the inflation rate is.

大约是2.30%。

That's about two thirty.

所以5%减去2.30%等于……

So five minus two thirty is...

你帮我算算。

Help me here.

2.80。

Two eighty.

对。

Yep.

我说对了吗？

Did I get that right?

嗯，其实是5.1，不过……

Well, it's 5.1, but...

2.70。

Two seventy.

2.70。

Two seventy.

亚当，对我来说现在还不算太早。

It's not as early for me as you, Adam.

2.70。

Two seventy.

从历史来看，这是一个非常受限的利率，对经济有相当大的抑制作用。

That's a very restricted historically, a decently restrictive rate that weighs on the economy.

与其说5%很高，或者5.5%很高，或者4%很低，不如把它和盈亏平衡通胀率比较一下，这样能更好地感受它的限制性有多强。

Instead of saying, oh, 5% is high or 5.5% is high or 4% would be very low, compare it to breakeven inflation rates to get a much better feel for how restrictive it is.

你会发现，这个水平对于基于五年和十年期贷款、房贷、车贷、企业贷款，几乎所有贷款来说，都是非常限制性的。

And what you'll find is that that level is very restrictive for everything based off five and ten year loans, mortgages, car loans, corporate loans, pretty much all loans.

短期来看，浮动利率的短期房屋净值贷款、企业浮动利率贷款，还有信用卡，这些也都跟着联邦基金利率在涨。

And short term, very floating rate and short home equity lines, corporate floating lines, all that stuff, credit cards.

现在这些都在上涨，因为联邦基金利率上调了。

They're all going up too now with the Fed funds rate.

这里确实有很多事情在发生。

And there's a lot going on here.

但从你的角度来看，现在通胀的趋势是怎样的？

But from your perspective, where is inflation trending right now?

我们看到一些东西在推高消费价格，而且，你知道，油价，尤其是柴油价格，也在推波助澜。

We've got things that are creeping into consumer prices and obviously, you know, oil prices and especially the price of diesel isn't helping.

不过，就像我们一直聊的那样，你看CPI的计算，很大一部分是住房之类的，我觉得这部分还在继续降温。

At the same time though, as you and I have been talking about forever, when you look at the calculation of CPI, a huge part of it is things like shelter, which I believe still continues to disinflate.

而且我知道，你看远期通胀预期的时候，它们相对还是比较温和的。

So, and I know when you're looking out at forward inflation expectations, they're relatively muted.

那你觉得现在通胀最真实的走向是什么样的？或者你最好的理解是什么？

So what's your sort of truest or your best understanding of the truest direction of inflation right now?

我觉得你……

I think you...

虽然我不想这么说，因为我总是笑话美联储这么说，但你真的得看核心通胀。

And I hate to say this because I always laugh at the Fed for saying it, but you really need to look at core inflation.

把食品和能源排除掉。

Exclude food and energy.

我知道你会说，但是迈克，我80%的钱都花在汽油和食物上了。

And I know you're saying, but Mike, I spend 80% of my money on gas and food.

去掉那些我们真正需要生存的东西。

Minus the things that we need to actually live.

我也是。

So do I.

我跟别人没什么两样。

I'm not any different.

但这些东西有点超出控制范围，它们就是地缘政治、天气，这些影响让它们波动很大，对吧？

But those are things that are kind of out of the control, they're just geopolitics, weather, there are impacts that make them very volatile, right?

想想天气对农作物的影响。

Think about just the weather impact on crops.

想想油价上涨。

Think about higher oil prices.

而且不只是排除原油价格，就像你说的，还有柴油。

And it's not just excluding the price of crude oil, but like you said, diesel.

柴油用来把我们的亚马逊那些破玩意儿运到全国各地。

Diesel is used to truck all our Amazon crap around the country.

这就会反映在价格上涨上。

That's going to reflect in higher prices.

航运、油轮、飞机，你知道的。

Shipping, tankers, airplanes, know.

所以即使你看核心通胀，能源成本上涨还是会反映到核心CPI里。

So even when you do the core, you're still getting the cost of higher energy into the core CPI.

但我觉得总的来说，我同意沃什的看法，你应该从核心通胀来看，我知道核心CPI大概是2.4%，核心PCE是3.4%，差不多这样。

But I think generally speaking, agree with Warsh that you kind of look at it from a core level and we know core CPI is, I believe it's 2.4%, core PCE is 3.4%, something like that.

你知道，核心CPI几乎和战争开始前一样。

Know core CPI is pretty much the same level it was before the war started.

所以我觉得通胀基本上就维持在那个水平。

So I think we're kind of inflation is kind of running at that level.

虽然还是高于2%的目标，但石油影响很大，这是个问题，因为美联储要解决这个问题就得严重损害经济。

It's still above the 2% target, But oil is having a big impact, and that's a that's a problem because it's a problem that the Fed can't fix without really harming the economy.

如果你想降低石油需求，那就得把经济搞垮。

If you want to get, you know, oil demand down, crush the economy.

而且，除此之外，他们对伊朗那边的情况也控制不了。

And, you know, but other than that, they don't have control over what's going on in Iran.

好的。

Okay.

那么……

Now that...

这倒是真的。

That's very true.

所以我想说的是，如果通胀预期——我知道这和很多人的看法相反——但如果它们相对稳定，对吧？

So the point I was trying to make is just if inflation expectations and I know this is contrary to how a lot of people feel but if they're relatively stable, right?

它们并没有大幅变化，但债券收益率在上升。

They're not really changing very dramatically but bond yields are going up.

那就意味着实际利率变得越来越有约束力。

It just means that the real rate is becoming more and more restrictive.

好的。

Okay.

我们来看看。

Let's see here.

所以，今天大家时间都比较紧，考虑到各位的日程安排。

So, we are a little time pressured today given everybody's schedules here.

我知道你还有几张幻灯片。

I know you had a couple other slides.

在我继续提问之前，我想问问，你还有没有准备好的内容，特别想在我们开始收尾之前聊一聊的？

I guess before I throw any more questions out there, is there anything else that you had prepared that you really wanna talk about before we start wrapping things up?

让我……

Let me...

我就快速展示两张幻灯片，因为Claude已经帮我做好了所有工作。

I'll just show two quick slides since Claude did all this work for me.

所以，假设你能看到，我想展示一下过去一个月收益率曲线的变化，因为这很重要。

So assuming you could see it, I wanna kinda show what's happened to the yield curve over the last month because this is important.

这是资金成本。

This is the cost of money.

你在这里看到的是收益率曲线的对比。

And what you see here is a comparison of the yield curve.

右下角的柱状图更能说明问题。

And the bar chart at the bottom right paints the better picture.

两年期收益率上涨了将近半个百分点。

Two year yields are up almost half a percent.

三十年期收益率只上涨了六个基点。

The thirty year yield is up only six basis points.

所以你可以看到，变化主要集中在一年、两年到五年这个区间。

So you can see the bulk of the change is really happening in that kind of one, two to five year sector.

影响主要集中在那里。

That's where it's being felt.

十年期收益率通常影响抵押贷款和一些公司债，只上涨了25个基点。

Ten years, which tend to control mortgages and some corporates, is only up 25 basis points.

所以说到收益率，并不是只有一个收益率。

So when you're talking about yields, there's not one yield.

而是一系列的收益率，曲线上的每个点都影响着经济的不同部分。

There's a series of yields and all those different points on a curve affect different parts of the economy.

这一点很重要，值得注意。

So that's important to note.

接下来我想说的是，这是来自芝加哥商品交易所的数据。

And then what I want to say, so this is from the CME.

这些是对明年十月联邦基金利率的预期。

These are the Fed funds expectations for next October.

你在这里看到的是，市场并没有达成共识。

And what you see here is that there is no consensus.

你知道，我想可以说市场认为联邦基金利率会比现在高出75到100个基点。

You know, I guess you could say the market thinks that Fed funds will be 75 to 75 to 1% more basis points to 1% more than they are now.

抱歉，打断一下。

There's a Sorry to interrupt.

我只是想确认大家听明白了……

I just wanna make sure folks got...

你说的是明年十月，不是下个月吧。

When you said next October, you're not talking about next month.

你说的是

You're talking

关于……哦，抱歉。

about Oh, I'm sorry.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

明年十月，也就是2027年十月。

A year from October October twenty twenty seven.

你可以看到，这就是联邦基金期货所反映的预期。

You could see this is what's being priced into Fed funds futures.

预期范围很广。

There's a wide range of expectations.

而且我觉得真正重要的是……

And I think what's really...

你从这上面看不出来，但肯定有一种观点认为，好吧，他们还会再加息一、二、三、四次，不管怎样，在接下来的六七个月里。

You can't decipher from this, but there has to be some school of thought that says, okay, they're going to raise one, two, three, four more times, whatever it is over the next six, seven months.

他们降息的可能性有多大？

What are the odds that they're cutting?

六月、七月降息，这又怎么影响呢？

Cutting rates in June, July, and how does that factor in?

美联储正在犯政策错误。

That the Fed's making a policy mistake.

因为如果他们犯了政策错误，我们可能会在他们最后一次加息后不久就看到降息。

Because if they're making a policy mistake, we could see cuts not that long after they do their final rate increase.

所以我觉得市场对美联储非常不确定。

So I think the market is very uncertain about the Fed.

这是收益率曲线全面上升的一个主要原因。

That's one major reason that rates are going up across the curve.

就是这种不确定性。

It's this uncertainty.

现在WMR说我们不会给你们任何前瞻性指引，这可是件大事。

Now with WMR saying we're not giving you any forward guidance, that's a big deal.

亚当，如果我能稍微回溯一下，我刚刚想到这个。

Adam, if I can just backtrack a little bit, I I just thought of this.

在上次美联储会议上，那是上周吗？

At the last Fed meeting, when was that last week?

两周前？

Two weeks ago?

时间过得真快。

Time flies.

上周。

Last week.

他们发布了季度经济预测。

They put out their quarterly economic projections.

而且什么...

And what...

这件事真的没什么人提过，我觉得特别重要。

No one has really talked about this, I think it's really important.

他们上调了明年的利率预期，也就是联邦基金利率的最终水平。

They raised the level of interest rates for next year, where the Fed funds would close.

我记得是从3.6%上调到4.1%，对吧？

I think they brought it from, what, 3.6% to 4.1%.

比三个月前的预期高了0.5个百分点。

They raised it half a percent from where they thought it would be three months ago.

他们让所有美联储成员回答：你觉得经济会怎么走？

They're asking all the Fed members, where do you see the economy?

通胀会怎么走？

Where do you see inflation?

劳动力市场会怎么走？联邦基金利率又会怎么走？

Where do you see the labor markets, and where do you see the Fed funds rate?

所以中位数预期上调了0.5个百分点。

So the median expectation rose half a percent.

所以他们在告诉你，他们认为利率会比三个月前预期的更高。

So they're telling you they're telling you they think rates are going to be higher than where they thought they were three months ago.

但他们没有改变经济预测，没有改变通胀预测，也没有真正改变失业预测。

But they didn't change their economic forecast, they didn't change their inflation forecast, and they didn't really change their unemployment forecast.

这就引出一个问题：如果你告诉我更高的利率对经济没有影响，那你为什么要调整利率呢？

So it begs the question, if you're telling me that higher rates have no impact on the economy, why are you changing rates?

美联储的这个预测真是很奇怪。

It's just a very odd forecast from the Fed.

你会想，好吧，我们在加息。

You would think that, okay, we're raising rates.

目标是降低通胀，但他们的通胀预测一个都没有下调。

The goal is to lower inflation, but none of their inflation forecasts were lower.

他们的经济预测也都没有下调，尽管我们知道更高的利率对经济有负面影响。

None of their economic forecasts were lower, even though we know that higher rates has a negative impact on the economy.

所以我说这个有点跑题了，但我就是忍不住想说。

So I kind of came out of left field with that one, but I just had to get it off my chest.

对，不，不，我很高兴你说了。

Yeah, no, no, I'm glad you did.

而且我也不是对凯文·沃什的想法有什么了解。

And it's not like I have any insight into what Kevin Worsch is thinking.

我在这个频道上有过几次讨论，一次是和兰斯，一次是和达里厄斯·戴尔，关于你那种更糟糕的策略，有一种说法是，沃什把它叫做公关式加息。

There have been a couple of discussions that I've had on this channel, some with Lance, some with Darius Dale about you kind of worse strategy here and there's an argument to be made that, Wentz was calling it a PR hike.

达里厄斯则更倾向于认为，这更像是在向债券市场发出信号，对吧？

Darius was calling it more of a, like just signaling to the bond market, right?

就是说沃什今年可能会加息一两次，以此来确立他鹰派的立场，表明“看，我会做该做的事”，试图让债券市场稍微平静一点，就像“嘿，我关心控制通胀”。

That that Worsch might actually hike once or twice this year as a way to sort of establish his hawkish bona fides that look, I'll do what needs to be done, to try to calm the bond market a little bit that like, hey, I care about keeping inflation under control.

但随后又让美联储在2027年开始降息。

But then setting the Fed up to start cutting in 2027.

现在有趣的是，债券收益率对这次首次加息的反应是进一步走高。

Now, what's interesting is the response of bond yields to this first rate hike was to go even higher.

所以这并没有让债券市场感觉好多少。

So it didn't necessarily make the bond market feel any better.

但我觉得，有一种观点认为，沃什可能觉得这些降息在经济上起不了太大作用，但他这么做只是为了让大家稍微安心一点。

But there is, I think, a thesis that's been put out there that maybe worse doesn't even think that these cuts are going to do all that much economically, but he's doing it just to kind of get everybody a bit settled.

然后希望如果情况稍微对他有利，比如伊朗战争得到解决，油价开始下跌之类的，那么美联储可能真的能再次调整政策。

And then hopefully if things turn in his favor a little bit, like maybe the war in Iran gets resolved and oil prices start coming down or whatever, then the Fed may actually be able to shift policy again.

我觉得这是合理的展望。

I think that's the reasonable outlook.

我记得上次我们聊的时候，你告诉我达里厄斯·戴尔预测会有一两次，我记得是两次加息，然后接着降息。

I think last time we talked, you told me about Darius Dale calling for one or two, I think, or two rate hikes and then followed by rate cuts.

当时我也同意。

And at the time, I agreed.

我觉得这可能是这里的行动路线。

I think that's probably the course of action here.

好的。

Okay.

问题是，是一次、两次、三次还是四次？

The question is, is it one or two or three or four?

而且我觉得反过来看，问题是降息会来得有多快。

And I think the flip side of that is how quickly do the cuts come.

加息越多，降息也会来得更快、力度更大。

The more they increase, the quicker and the the more powerful the rate cuts come too.

所以债券市场的波动性会更大。

So the more volatility for the bond market.

嗯，这就是为什么我这么关注债券收益率——如果债券收益率继续上升，我觉得美联储最终不得不跟着加息。

Well, and this is to me why I look at bond yields so much, which is if bond yields keep going up, I think the Fed's got to chase that with hiking eventually.

而如果债券收益率开始稳定下来，那就会给沃斯更多空间。

Whereas if the bond yield starts settling a bit, that gives worse more room.

对，别忘了回到收益率曲线，想想收益率曲线，它最前端就是短期部分。

Well, Keep in mind, back to the yield curve, if you think about the yield curve, it's the very front end.

所以如果我们只看一个月期国库券，它关心的只是未来一个月、未来三十天联邦基金利率会怎么走。

So if we're just looking at a one month treasury bill, all it cares about is where Fed funds are going to be for the next month, for the next thirty days.

它和联邦基金利率以及市场对联邦基金利率的预期是紧密绑定的。

It's tied at the hip to Fed funds and Fed funds expectations.

如果你看三十年期国债，它虽然也会受边际影响，但真正关注的是通胀和增长。

If you look at the thirty year, it cares on the margin, but it's really focused on inflation and growth.

那才是真正重要的。

That's what really matters.

所以我之前给你看的那张图，三十年期国债在过去一个月里涨了六个基点。

So that graph I showed you a little bit earlier, thirty year has been up six basis points in the last month.

那些受联邦基金利率影响最大的债券才是上涨的。

Those those bonds most affected by fed funds are what's risen.

所以也许他正在……

So maybe he is having...

他是在安抚市场的长期端，缓解通胀担忧。

He's calming the very long end of the market down, the inflation concerns down.

但这样做的代价是，所有与联邦基金利率挂钩的东西都被抬高了。

But the cost of doing that is bringing up everything that's tied to Fed funds.

把中间那段也抬高了。

Bringing up the belly.

而且那是……

And that's...

嗯，不管真正的原因是什么，现在的情况就是这样。

Well, that that is what is happening regardless of what what is actually driving it.

这就引出了一个关于债券的有趣问题，我记得我们之前讨论过，你认为债券收益率最终下降的可能性更大。

And this gets to an interesting question about bonds, which is I know from our previous discussions that you think it's more likely than not that bond yields will come down eventually.

你的默认预期是它们会在2027年甚至2028年期间开始下降，这就引出了一个问题：什么时候是好的入场点？

And your default is that they're going to start declining throughout 2027 and maybe 2028, which then raises the question, well, when's a good entry point?

现在，如果你只想要不错的收益，两年期和三十年期的收益率差别并不大。

Right now, if you just want good income, the difference between a two year yield and a thirty year yield isn't that great.

所以，你知道，现在作为债券……

So, know, it seems right now as a bond...

作为收益型投资者，你可能想稍微增加对中段期限的配置，因为这里的收益率相当不错。

As an income investor, you know, you might wanna increase your exposure to the belly a bit because you're getting pretty good yield here.

至于两年期，假设你完全判断错了，收益率会从这里继续上升。

And with the two year, let's say you're totally wrong and you'll just keep going up from here.

其实你只需要再持有两年，就能拿回全部本金了。

Well, you only have to hold it for two more years to get all your principal back.

你看到机会了吗？

Are you seeing an opportunity here?

哦，你这么说真有意思。

Oh, it's funny you say that.

我们这周有一笔交易，就是卖掉了一部分长期债券的头寸。

One of our trades this week was that we sold a little bit of our longer bond position.

我们买了五年期的。

We bought the five year.

哦，那好吧。

Oh, well, okay.

英雄所见略同。

Great minds.

新发行的五年期国债，收益率是5%。

The newly auctioned five year at 5%.

但我觉得这笔交易有意思的地方在于，比如说两年期国债，利率大概是4.90%。

But I think the interesting part of that trade, let's just say the two year, I think it's like $4.90.

你能赚到4.90%。

You earn $4.90.

最坏的情况是，到期后你也能拿到接近5%的收益，持有两年。

Worst case, it matures and you earn close to 5% for two years.

回报还不错。

Not a bad return.

但假设利率真的开始对经济产生重大影响，给企业盈利和资本支出计划带来沉重压力。

But let's just say that interest rates really start having a big economic impact weighing heavily on corporate earnings and CapEx spending plans.

股市下跌20%、30%、甚至40%。

Stock market falls twenty, thirty, 40%.

你现在就有了一个选择。

You now have an option.

你手里有那笔现金。

You have that cash.

你可以卖掉债券，价格可能会更高，收益率会更低。

You could sell the bond, which will probably be higher in price, lower in yield.

而且你还有机会买入便宜的股票。

And you have the option to buy cheap stocks.

所以这也有点像是一种奇怪的伪期权性。

So it's got kind of this weird pseudo optionality to it as well.

我觉得这不是伪期权性。

I don't think it's pseudo optionality.

我认为这是真正的期权性。

I think it's real optionality.

确实是。

It is.

我想问你一个问题，现在可能是最好的时机，就是不仅当利率上升时，会对经济施加越来越大的压力，这通常会导致盈利下降，进而导致股价下跌。

And a question I was going to ask you, which is probably the best time to ask it, is not only when rates go up does it start placing increasing weight on the economy, which therefore usually brings earnings down and then brings stock prices down.

而且随着利率上升，它们会把资金从股票吸引到债券，因为就像，嘿。

But as rates are raising, they just attract capital from stocks into bonds because it's like, hey.

你看。

Look.

我可以用更少的风险获得更接近我想要的收益率。

I can get closer to the yield I want with less risk.

我们现在开始看到这种情况了吗？

Are we starting to see that yet?

我们开始看到资金从股市流向债市了吗？

Are we starting to see capital flight from the equity markets into credit?

是的。

Yep.

所以今天早上，我和Lance做了我们的播客。

So I did, this morning, Lance and I did our podcast.

我们聊到了，我提到了我们正在从TINA转向TIGA。

And we talked to and I kind of brought up how we're going from TINA to TIGA.

TINA就是没有其他选择。

TINA is there is no alternative.

在疫情前、危机前，债券收益率是零。

Pre post crisis, pre COVID, bond yields were zero.

如果你想要回报，就只能去股市，那时候估值相对便宜，比现在便宜多了。

If you wanted return, had to go to the equity market where valuations were somewhat cheaper, much cheaper than where they are today.

所以股市前景不错，债券没什么收益，实际上在一些国家还是负的。

So equities had a decent outlook, bonds yielded nothing, And actually in some foreign countries, they were negative.

现在，有了一个好的替代选择。

Today, there is a good alternative.

你可以卖掉一些估值很高的股票，然后……

You can sell some very high valuation stocks and just...

你知道，我不是说让你把股票全卖了去买债券，但你可以开始在股票组合里多配一些债券，至少锁定一个5%左右的回报，差不多就像年金一样，相对于那些……

You know, I'm not saying sell all your stocks and buy bonds, but you could start balancing more bonds into a stock portfolio and at least lock down a 5% ish return, you know, almost like an annuity of sorts against stocks that are...

估值很高、未来十年可能回报平平甚至很差的股票，不是说接下来一年或六个月，而是长期来看。

Have high valuations and are likely over the next ten years, doesn't mean the next year or six months to have mediocre to poor returns.

对，我真的很想再强调这一点，让大家明白。

Yeah, and I just really want to underscore this for people.

我们经常聊这个话题，但这就是为什么制定财务计划和设定财务目标如此重要。因为你会说，好吧，看，我想在未来某个时候实现某个目标，对吧？

We talk about this a lot, but this is why it's so important to have a financial plan and a financial goal because you say, okay, look, I want to do X in my life at this time in the future, right?

我想买一套度假屋。

I want to buy a vacation home.

我想支付孩子的教育费用。

I want to pay for my kid's education.

我想退休，随便什么，对吧？

I want to retire, whatever, right?

而明智的做法不是说，好吧，我只要年复一年地试图跑赢市场，希望最终能有足够的钱来实现目标。

And the smart way to do it is not to say, well, I just going to try to beat the market year after and hopefully I have enough eventually by my goal to be able to afford the goal.

那基本上就像掷飞镖一样。

That's like throwing darts basically.

如果你只是依赖整个市场，就会完全暴露在市场风险之下。

If you're just relying on the market in general, exposed to the full brunt of market risk.

所以你要做的是，你说，嘿，看，如果这是我想要达成目标的日期，那么从现在到那时，我需要多少回报才能实现它？

So what you wanna do is you wanna say, hey, look, if this is the date where I wanna hit this goal, what return do I need between now and then to hit it?

你可能会发现，哦，我需要一个低的……

And you may find, oh, I need a low...

要达到目标，我只需要每年6%的收益，对吧？

To hit it, I only need a 6% annual gain or whatever, right?

你不需要总是为了追求市场回报而冒险。

You do not need to always stretch for the risk of the market return.

所以你要平衡你的资产，以最大的信心和最低的风险来帮助你实现目标，对吧？

And so you want to balance your assets to try to help you hit that goal with the greatest confidence and the lowest amount of risk, right?

这就是投资入门的基本常识。

So that's just smart investing 101.

但在这个过程中，你要关注不同资产类别的情况。

But along the way, you wanna look at what's happening in the different asset classes.

如果你突然意识到，天哪，债券收益率在上升，我可以转向更安全的投资，同时还能获得我需要的回报，那么我就更不需要依赖股票风险了。

And so if you know, all of a sudden realize, oh my gosh, bond yields are going up and I can shift to greater safety and still get more of the return I need, then I need to rely on equity risk even less.

我可以降低投资组合中风险较高的部分，同时仍然有信心实现我的目标。

I can de risk the risky part of my portfolio and still have confidence that I'm gonna hit my goal.

对我来说，现在似乎正在出现的情况是，这可能是开始从股票转向信贷的好时机，仍然能同时实现你的目标，但这样做可以更有信心，风险更小，晚上甚至能睡得更安稳。

And that's kind of, to me, what seems to be emerging here is this may be a good time to start shifting more from equity to credit, to still hit your goal at the same time, but just be able to do it with more confidence, less risk, the ability to sleep even better at night.

我理解得对吗？

Am I interpreting this correctly?

亚当，如果Thoughtful Money不行的话，我们给你留了个职位，因为你真的很棒。

Adam, if Thoughtful Money doesn't work out, we got a job for you because you are Alright.

你这是在说我们爱听的话。

You're preaching to the choir.

这正是我们一直在讨论的，就是达到你的目标就行。

That's what we have been talking a lot about that just meet your goal.

别担心股市在做什么。

Don't worry about what the stock market is doing.

如果它……

If it...

如果你……

If you...

如果5%的收益就能达到你的目标，那就安心睡觉吧，何必去冒那个险呢？

If 5% gets you to your goal, just sleep at night and why take the risk?

专注于你的目标，而不是市场——所谓的市场——在做什么。

Just focus on your goal and not what the market, the quote unquote market is doing.

你不是市场。

You're not the market.

你的目标是把你的钱管理到一定的财富水平，让你能舒适地生活、退休，不管那个目标是什么。

Your goal is to manage your money to some level of wealth that you can comfortably live in and retire and whatever that goal is.

可能是成为千万富翁，也可能是刚好够用，不管是什么，专注于那个目标。

It could be to be a multi millionaire, could be to have just enough to get by, whatever it is, focus on that goal.

而且我觉得你会发现，这样管理风险会比追逐那个不在乎你目标的、难以捉摸的股票市场要好得多。

And I I I think you'll find that you manage your risk better than if your goal is to just chase this elusive stock market that doesn't care about your goal.

对，而且有趣的是，Lance一直在抱怨投机，你知道，投资界的腐败，原因我们都懂。

Yeah, and it's funny, Lance has been ranting a lot about the speculative, you know, corruption of investing, the investing world for a whole bunch of reasons that we all understand.

而且我觉得对很多投资者来说，他们现在觉得自己既适合冒险。

And I think for a lot of investors, they feel like they're both wired for risk at this point in time.

他们天生就爱投机。

They're wired for speculation.

而且很多人出于无奈，也觉得，你看，我要是想达到目标，就只能赌一把大的。

And a lot of them out of desperation also just feel like, look, the only way I'm gonna, you know, be able to hit my goals is if I hit a Hail Mary.

所以他们一上场就想着，我的策略就是不停地赌，赌一次大的，再赌一次大的，希望总有一次能成。

So, they come onto the field and they're just like, my strategy is just to keep throwing Hail Mary after Hail Mary and hopefully one of those gets caught.

那是个非常冒险的策略。

That's a very risky strategy.

而且压力也很大，对吧？

It's also very stressful, right?

你的目标应该是稳稳当当地把球带进端区，对吧？

Your goal should be able to just walk it into the end zone, right?

也就是说，嘿，你看，我就慢慢跑，打地面进攻，每次推进几码，最后轻松跨过端区，轻松达阵。

Which is, hey, look, I'm just gonna run, do the run game, get a couple of yards every play, and yeah, eventually just be able to take a step over the end zone and have a real easy touchdown.

这应该是你一开始的目标，而所有这些数学和规划就是为了帮你做到这一点。

That should be your goal at the start, and that's where all this math and this planning comes out to help you do that.

关于这一点，我最后想说的是，是的，股票通常比债券风险更高。

The last point I wanna make on this is just, yes, equity is generally more riskier than debt.

但是迈克尔，现在，当你根据当前的估值来看未来预期的股票回报时，我这样理解对不对——你会说，股票总体上风险更高，但展望未来，鉴于当前的估值，它们未来看起来风险更大，因为未来十年的预期回报相对较低，而现在的估值又这么高。

But Michael, right now, when you look at future expected equity returns given today's valuations, am I correct in thinking that you would say, hey, equities are more risky in general, but looking forward, giving today's valuations, they seem to be much more risky going forward just because their expected return over the next ten years is so low on a relative basis because valuations are so high right now.

没错。

Bingo.

亚当，你都快把我要说的话说完了。

You're not leaving me much to say here, Adam.

你你非常我……

You're you're very I...

我只是在看

I'm just looking

想成立自己的注册投资顾问公司。

to get my own RIA.

下次我来采访你。

I'm gonna interview you next time.

不。

No.

你说得完全对。

You're absolutely right.

再说一次，未来十年的回报很可能微乎其微，但我们可能先涨30%持续三年，然后跌80%持续两年，接着稳步上涨5%；或者今年剩余时间跌90%，然后未来九年表现很好。

The returns are, again over ten years, they're negligible most likely, but we could be up 30% for the next three years before we fall 80% for two years and then just go on a nice steady 5% rise or we could fall 90 the rest of this year and then have a great nine years ahead of us.

所以我们不知道结果会怎样，但我们有一定信心，未来十年的整体回报可能不会太好。

So we don't know how it's going to work out, but we have some level of confidence that the returns over the full ten years is probably not going to be great.

好的。

All right.

好了，各位，我反复强调这一点，是因为大多数人，普通投资者，他们知道股票。

Well, folks, I'm hammering in this because most people, most regular investors, they know stocks.

他们对股票很熟悉。

They're familiar with them.

一想到投资，他们就会想到股票。

When they think investing, they think stocks.

他们对信贷这块就没那么熟悉了。

They're not quite as familiar with the credit side of things.

现在可能是考虑增加信贷配置的时候了，如果你在这方面没有经验，显然应该去找一位在这方面很有经验的顾问聊聊。

This is a time to potentially consider increasing your credit allocation, and if you don't have experience doing that, obviously talk to an advisor who's well experienced for that.

你甚至可以找迈克尔和RIA的团队谈谈。

You can even talk to Michael and the team there at RIA.

好了，各位，我知道你们得走了。

So in wrapping up, my folks, I know you gotta go.

特点。

Traits.

除了从三十年转到五年期，你们这周还做了哪些调整？

What traits have you guys made this week beyond the moving from the thirty year to the five year?

所以我们……

So we...

我们意识到，可能会看到资金从科技股轮动到其他所有板块，基本上就是这样。

Recognizing that we're probably gonna see a rotation from tech to some of the To everybody else, basically.

对，其他所有板块。

Yes, everything else.

在我们的行业模型中，我们减少了大型股和超大型股的持仓，增加了价值股的配置。

In our sector model, we reduced our large cap, mega cap position, and we added to the value position.

这正好符合我们的因子轮动模型，该模型从大型股成长转向了价值股。

That kind of fell right in line with our factor rotation model which switched to value from large cap growth.

在股票模型中，我们稍微增加了一些公用事业股，而且未来一两周我们可能会进一步削减一些科技股，同时增加一些价值股。

In the equity model we added a little bit of utilities and we're probably going to do a little more trimming of some of the tech stocks and adding a little bit to the value stocks over the coming week or two.

所以这只是第一步，随着这种轮动可能开始加强，后续可能还会有几笔交易。

So that was kind of just the first of what may be a few more trades coming as this rotation probably starts to gain hold.

再说一次，这种轮动的难点在于，我认为油价的影响比平时要大得多。

Again, know, the tough part with this rotation is I think oil prices have a much larger impact than they typically do.

所以，如果我们下周四看到油价达到一百二十美元，那些价值股可能表现不佳。

So, know, if we come in here next Thursday and oil is at one twenty, those value stocks are probably not doing well.

我也很好奇，你觉得目前市场的压力有多少，如果有的话，是来自中期选举前的不确定性？

I'm curious too, how much of just what's weighing on the market right now do you attribute, if any, to the uncertainty leading up to the midterms?

肯定有一些影响。

I'm sure there's some.

但我觉得现在的民调，还有那个博彩网站的赔率，这些信息都表明众议院会落入民主党手中。

But I think the polling right now, the Cauchy betting, all that kind of stuff tells you the House is going to go Democratic.

参议院这边，原本共和党占优，现在也开始变得胜负难料了。

The Senate is starting to become a coin toss where it was Republicans kind of favored.

为什么……

Why did...

我也不清楚。

I don't know.

你可以把这理解为好事，也可以理解为坏事。

You can interpret that as good or bad.

好的一面是，他们在支出问题上达成了共识。

The good thing is that they've tied a knot around spending.

因为现在谁也不会通过任何法案。

Because no one's gonna pass anything.

特朗普跟民主党达成一致的可能性，比零还低。

The odds of Trump agreeing with the Democrats is less than zero.

他们会拼死反对一切，拖延一切，这虽然是好事，但也是坏事，因为一些必要的立法没法通过，所有事情都会变成一场争斗。

They're gonna fight everything tooth and nail, hold everything up, which is a good thing, but it's also a bad thing because we can't get some needed legislation through, as everything's just going to be a fight over everything.

所以我不太确定，你知道，每次选举总有焦虑，这次选举可能比以往更有意义，但我认为市场更大的焦虑最终源于油价，油价正在通过利率市场传导，并开始影响股市，就像我给你展示的那样。

So I'm not sure, you know, there's always angst around an election and this election may be more meaningful than others, But I think the bigger market angst is ultimately stems from the price of oil, which is spreading through the interest rate markets and starting to impact the stock markets as I showed you.

好的。

Okay.

那么最后一个问题。

So last question here.

Lance倾向于认为，地缘政治发展对市场方向来说，通常没什么大影响。

Lance tends to think that geopolitical developments generally kind of are a nothingburger when it comes to the direction that markets take.

也许它们会让市场在一两天内小幅波动，比如哪里宣战了之类的，但它们往往不会太影响市场价格，他拿出了很多图表来证明这一点。

Maybe they make the market wiggle a little bit in a day or two here or there, you know, war declared here, whatever, but they they they tend to not drive market prices that much, and he's brought up a lot of charts to show that.

这次会不会有点不同呢，如果我们能跟伊朗达成和平，也许还有乌克兰和俄罗斯之间？

Could it be a little bit different this time if we, you know, get peace in with Iran and potentially between, Ukraine and and Russia?

你知道吗，如果突然之间，轰炸炼油厂或海湾基础设施的风险被排除，那会不会因为这种缓解因素而对市场产生比平时更大的影响？

You know, if all of a sudden the risk of bombing oil refineries or Gulf infrastructure, you know, gets taken off the table, could that have a greater impact on markets from a relief factor than normal?

是的，绝对会。

Yeah, absolutely.

但我认为兰斯的观点大体上是正确的。

But I think Lance's point is generally correct.

我觉得这次战争不同，因为它对油价的影响太大了。

I think this war is different because it's such a heavy impact on the price of oil.

所以，这就是投资者现在面临的问题。

So I mean that's the problem for investors right now.

你必须小心，因为原油价格可能会涨到120美元，对吧？

You have to be wary because the price of crude could go to $120 right?

不仅仅是现在的情况，还有它带来的后续问题，比如我们看到的柴油和油轮运费等问题。

It's not just what's going on now, but the problems it's having down the lines, like we're seeing with diesel and with tanker rates and things like that.

但另一方面，特朗普可能在一个小时内宣布，伊朗现在不在联合国，我们一直在幕后进行谈判。

But the flip side of it is that Trump could make an announcement in an hour saying, and Iran isn't the UN right now, That, you know, we've been behind the scenes.

我们认为协议已经达成，而且能够维持住。

We think we have a deal in place, and it holds.

结果转眼间，原油价格就跌到每桶70美元了。

And next thing we know, crude oil's at 70 a barrel.

债券收益率下降了30个基点。

Bond yields dropped 30 basis points.

股市创下历史新高，之前的所有担忧都烟消云散了。

Stocks hit record highs, and whatever concerns we had now are gone.

所以这个市场非常棘手，因为你得为两种情况都做好准备。

So it's a very tricky market because you kind of have to be prepared for both.

好的。

Okay.

明白。

All right.

所以，你看，环境变化很快，这也是我们每周都请你们来频道的原因。

So well, look, fast changing environment, which is why we have you guys on the channel every week.

下周我们会和Lance或者你，看谁在城里，继续跟进那里的最新情况。

Will pick this up next week with Lance and or you, depending on whoever is in town, to give us the latest on what is going on there.

希望如此，如果能像你说的那样有个公告就太好了，但谁知道呢？

Fingers crossed, maybe it would be awesome if we got an announcement like the point you said, but who knows?

好的，所以对投资者来说，这显然让一切都变得相当棘手。

All right, so for investors, this obviously makes it all a pretty tricky time.

我们已经给了大家很多理由去重新考虑他们的资产配置。

We've already given people a number of reasons to think about relooking at their allocation here.

各位，如果你们能从一位优秀的专业财务顾问的建议中受益，强烈建议如果你们还没有顾问的话，考虑和Thoughtful Money推荐的其中一家公司谈谈，就是你们每周在这个频道上看到和我一起的那些公司。

Folks, if you could benefit from the advice of a good professional financial advisor, highly recommend if you don't already have one advising you, consider talking to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money endorses is the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out.

也许你们想和Mike本人、Lance以及RIA的团队聊聊。

Perhaps you'd like to talk to Mike himself, Lance and the team there at RIA.

要做到这一点，只需在thoughtfulmoney.com上填写一个非常简短的表格。

So to do so, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com.

你们得到的这些讨论和咨询完全免费，没有任何义务。

These discussions, these consultations you get in return, totally free, no commitments involved.

这只是这些公司提供的一项服务，目的是尽可能帮助更多的投资者。

It's just a service these firms offer to be as helpful to as many investors as they can.

再提醒一下，你只剩一周时间购买Thoughtful Money秋季线上会议的门票了，会议将在10月17日星期六举行。

Quick reminder too, you only have a week left to purchase your ticket to the Thoughtful Money fall online conference, that's coming up on Saturday, October 17.

如果你不能看直播，也不用担心。

Don't worry if you can't watch live.

所有购票的人都会收到整个活动的回放视频。

Everybody who buys a ticket will get replay videos of the full event.

所以，趁早鸟折扣还在，赶紧去thoughtfulmoney.com买票吧，这个优惠只持续一周。

So to buy your ticket at the lowest early bird price discount while it's still around for the next week, go to thoughtfulmoney.com and buy your ticket there.

你还会了解到这次活动的讲师阵容，这是我们迄今为止最棒的。

You'll learn all about the faculty for this event as well, which is the best we've ever had.

考虑到2027年的不确定性，这个时机非常合适。

Super timely given the uncertainty going into 2027.

期待在会议上见到你。

So look forward to seeing you there at the conference.

迈克尔，非常感谢你在繁忙的旅行日程中抽出时间来参加。

Michael, thanks so much for squeezing this in given your busy travel schedule.

我们现在就让你去机场吧。

We'll let you get off to the airport now.

当然可以。

Absolutely.

谢谢你，亚当。

Thank you, Adam.

很高兴和你在一起。

Great being with you.

我也是，伙计。

You too, buddy.

旅途平安。

Travel safe.

还有其他人，非常感谢你们的观看。

And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.