The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck

而且它们现在上市时的市值要高得多，动辄几十亿美元，SpaceX 就是个例子，超过一万亿美元。

And they're going public now at market caps that are multiples higher, like multiple billions of dollars, and SpaceX's, right, example, you know, over 1,000,000,000,000.

所以，这就是你错过的价值和回报潜力。

And so that's value, that's return potential that you're missing out.

你听到 Jan 谈到错过 AI 交易、只能干瞪眼的痛苦。

And so, you know, you heard Jan talk about the pain of missing out and sitting out the AI trade.

错过私人市场交易，同样会让人很痛苦。

There's a pretty big pain of sitting out the private market trade.

所以我就先说到这里。

So I'll kind of leave it there.

顺便说一下，当然也有流动性、估值等问题，凡事都有风险，这些我们都可以讨论。

By the way, again, there's a liquidity, there's valuation concerns, everything comes with risk and we can talk about that.

现在很多资产定价都太完美了，这让我们有点消化不良。

A lot of the assets now are priced to perfection, which gives us some indigestion.

所以你必须非常小心，非常自律，但我们相信这是一个非常大的机会。

So you have to be really careful and really disciplined, but we believe it's a really big opportunity.

那你可以切到最后一页幻灯片了，Jan。

So you can switch to the last slide, Jan.

我觉得这一页简单来说就是，市场很大而且在增长，同时也有很多风险投资经理和私募股权经理在获得资金，但和公开市场一样，幂律法则在私人市场也同样适用。

And I think this one just quickly says that, so you have this large growing market and you have all these VC managers and private equity managers getting funded, but similar to the public markets, this power law reigns true in the private markets.

少数公司越来越集中地贡献了大部分价值，而且越来越多的价值是由越来越少的管理者创造的。

You have a select number of companies increasingly driving more and more of the value, and you have an increasing number of, or should say a decreasing number of managers that are driving more and more of the value.

所以如果你看这张幻灯片，它其实是想直观展示一下首次基金经理的情况。

And so if you kind of look at it on this slide, this is kind of just trying to give a visual picture of first time fund managers.

也就是说，Adam、Jan和我出去筹集我们的第一支基金。

So Adam, Jan and I go out to raise our first time fund.

当前的环境告诉我们，我们会非常艰难，因为投资者看重历史业绩，他们会说，你知道吗，越来越多的回报是由现有的风险投资经理和成长型经理创造的，我们不如把资金交给那些人。

The current environment is telling us that they're having a very, we would be having a very hard time because investors are looking at historical performance and they're saying, you know what, more and more of the returns are being generated by the incumbent EC managers, growth managers, we're better off parking capital potentially with those folks.

如果你看我们的一些数据，过去几十年大约90%的风险投资回报是由5%的经理创造的。

If you look at some data that we have, roughly 90% of venture returns over the past few decades has been generated by 5% of the managers.

这个数字很重要，如果你看看过去几十年活跃的3000家风险投资经理，也许我会问你一个问题。

That's an important number, and if you look at the 3,000 VC managers that have been active the past couple of decades, maybe I'll ask you a question.

在这3000个基金经理中，亚当，你觉得有多少比例的人能在那段时间里持续实现超过3倍的回报？

Of those 3,000 fund managers, what percentage of them, Adam, do you think put up more than 3X returns consistently over that time period?

你说超过3倍的比例？

What percent put over that?

我觉得是极小的一部分。

I mean, tiny fraction, I would think.

因为我对这个行业的理解是，大牌公司有优先权，所以他们抢走了那些……

Because my understanding of this industry is that the big dogs get first view, and so they snap up the good...

明显的好交易，然后其他人就越来越像是在争夺剩下的残羹，风险大得多。

The obviously good deals, and then everybody else kind of increasingly is fighting over the scraps where there's a lot more risk.

对，你说得完全正确。

Yeah, so you're spot on.

比例不到1%。

Percentage is less than 1%.

不到1%。

Less than 1%.

不过，从我们的角度来看，还有其他数据可以讨论，但就我们看来，这告诉我们的是，资产层面的价值集中度在增加，经理层面的价值集中度也在增加。

Though, from our perspective, and there's other data we could talk about, but from our perspective, what just tells us is that there's increasing value concentration at the asset level, increasing value concentration at the manager level.

再说一次，我们认为投资者需要或应该探索如何将私人市场纳入你的整体投资组合构建中，但你必须小心，并且要有纪律。

Again, we think investors need to or should explore how to incorporate private markets into your overall portfolio construction, but you have to be careful and you have to be disciplined.

这就是我所有的观点，Jan。

That's all I got, Jan.

我就说到这里。

I'm going to leave it.

我就这样结束。

I'm going to call it.

好的，但我只是希望你同意我，然后你就可以结束了，那就是在私人领域，AI交易仍然很火爆。

Okay, but I just want you to agree with me and then you can sign off, which is in the private space, the AI trade is still booming.

确实很火爆。

It is booming.

它正在给予

It's giving

而且可以说是非常火爆，我得说。

And shakingly some booming, I would say.

有些公司的估值确实让人难以理解，这些公司还没有展现出任何持久性，更不用说，对吧，在硬件方面，甚至超越AI，有些硬科技公司因为展示了大规模制造的执行能力而获得回报。

It's hard to wrap your head around the valuations in some of these situations for companies that have not yet demonstrated any durability, let alone, right, like on the hardware side, even beyond AI, we have companies that are on the hard tech side that are getting rewarded for demonstrating they've executed at scale manufacturing.

如果你看看它们的定价，它们还没有，只有一些原型，而且，正如Jan所说，在AI方面，有一家公司，我就不点名了，估值接近250亿美元，但他们的模型还没有发布。

If you look at how they're being priced and they haven't, they have some prototypes that they've been able And to on the AI side, as Jan said, there was a company, won't name it, but they were valued at close to $25,000,000,000 and they had not yet released their model.

所以这很令人兴奋。正如Jan所说，有很多关注和注意力，但我们这些有经验的人也非常谨慎。

So it's exciting To Jan's point, there's a lot of focus and attention, but those of us who've been doing this for a while also are being very cautious.

好的，如果我能问一个简短的问题，然后我们就结束AI这个话题。

Okay, if I could just ask one quick question and then we'll wrap up in AI.

所以，正如Jan所说，对这些AI公司的所有权需求仍然非常旺盛。

So to Jan's point, the appetite for ownership of these AI companies is just voracious still right now.

你们还没提到的一个词是泡沫，我不想深入讨论，因为那可能会是一个更长的讨论。

Now a word you guys have not used yet is bubble, and I don't want to get into that because that could be a much longer discussion.

我们围绕这个话题已经讨论了很多，但它确实似乎有一种狂热的强度。

We've had a lot of discussions around this, but it does seem to sort of have a mania intensity to it.

时间会告诉我们这是否合理。

We'll find out if that's justified or not, you know, as time goes on.

我的问题是，Christian，你有没有机会看我最近会议上Fred Hickey的演讲？

The question I have, Christian, I don't know if you had a chance to watch Fred Hickey's presentation from my recent conference.

我想Jan至少看了一部分。

I think Jan at least saw part of it.

我只是好奇，Fred，你知道，Jan很担心估值问题，主要是因为到目前为止这个领域的盈利质量。

And I'm just curious, Fred, as you know, Jan, is quite concerned, I mean, about valuation statements largely because of the quality of the earnings so far in this space.

我只是好奇，在你离开之前，Christian，或者在我们结束这个话题之前，Jan，你们对……有什么想法？

And I'm just curious, as you leave, Christian, or as we get off this topic, Jan, what thoughts, if any, you guys have on the...

盈利确实增长得非常快，令人惊讶。

Earnings for sure have been, you know, they've grown tremendously here astoundingly.

未来的预测仍然非常强劲。

Future projections are still really robust.

但是你们对这些盈利的潜在质量有什么看法？

But what what thoughts do you have on the potential quality of these earnings?

这可能是因为循环融资，或者弗雷德在会上提到的其他很多问题。

And, you know, it could be because of circular financing or, you know, a lot of the other issues that Fred brought up at the conference.

嗯...

All...

看起来不错，简。

It looks good, Jan.

嗯，我只想说，这里的最终消费者——也是今年第一季度的突破——是美国企业。

Well, I would just say, the the end consumer here, and that was the breakthrough of q one of this year, is corporate America.

Anthropic 打入了美国企业市场，而美国企业现在说，我想在 AI 上花钱。

Anthropic plugged into corporate America, and corporate America is saying, I want to spend money on AI.

所以，是的，生态系统里有些小部分，就像我说的，在交响乐团里，小提琴手可能断了几根弦，或者有人中风了什么的，但你知道，整体趋势还是一样的，而且公开市场纪律性很强，可能，我会说，我没有什么具体数据，也没有提前问过克里斯蒂安。

So yeah, there's little parts of the ecosystem, like I said, in the orchestra, the violin player may have broken a few strings, or maybe someone has a stroke or whatever but you know, it it it's it the overall trend is is the same and there's a lot of discipline in the public markets and probably, I would say and I don't have a metric and I didn't ask Christian about this ahead of time.

我认为公开市场比现在的私人市场更有纪律性。

There's more discipline in the public markets, I think, in a way than in the private markets right now.

我不想用“泡沫”这个词，但我确实用了...

I hate to use the word bubble, but I did...

这就是我想请克里斯汀来的原因，因为私营市场的AI交易就像两只脚都踩在油门上一路狂奔。

That's why I wanted to bring Christian on because it's like both feet on the gas as far as the private market AI trade is.

这情况可能会变，而且这也不是唯一需要知道的事实，但我觉得，亚当，这是一个你平时不太听到的不同视角。

Now that may change, and that may be not the only fact to know, but it's, I thought, just a different perspective, Adam, that you don't hear all the time.

对，而且大部分的收入，我想稍微反驳一下，它们不是初创公司，这是对简的观点说的。

Yeah, and the majority of the earnings, would just say, I would just push back a little bit, they're not startups, to Jan's point.

如果大部分的收入都来自那些资本薄弱或者债务负担极重的初创公司，那我觉得你会更担心。

Most of the revenue generation, if it was all coming from startups that are thinly capitalized or incredibly debt laden on the other side, I think you'd have more concern.

很多收入和盈利其实来自那些规模很大、根基稳固、资金充裕的企业。

A lot of these revenue and earnings generation is coming from very large established well heeled businesses.

这并不意味着没有风险，但我认为这让我们感到一些安心。

Doesn't mean there's not risk, but I think that provides us with some comfort.

我觉得这并不意味着没有风险，但你不必敲响警钟说，嘿，这看起来都是纸面上的东西，这很好。

I think It doesn't mean there's not risk, but you're not ringing a bell saying, hey, this all seems like paper here, which is great.

而且我认为简的观点是我从中得到的关键点，那就是，不管是不是泡沫，这个巨头依然在滚动，甚至可能还在加速。

And I think Jan's point is the key one I'm taking away from this, which is, bubble or not, the juggernaut is still rolling, you know, in in perhaps even still gaining speed.

所以，如果你要站在它的对立面，那你最好真的是对的，否则你就会被碾压。

So, if you're gonna take an oppositional position in front of it, like, you better really be right or you're gonna get flattened.

我的天，让我回到英伟达的话题。

I mean, my my let me just go back to NVIDIA.

我认为英伟达是AI硬件生态系统的核心。

I I consider to be the heart of the AI kinda hardware ecosystem.

当然，他们也有软件和其他方式来保护自己的护城河。

I mean, obviously, they have software and other ways to protect their moat.

这已经不是以前那个英伟达了，对吧？

It's not the NVIDIA of prior cycles, right?

那时候它只是个为游戏或比特币挖矿制造芯片的公司。

Where it was just a chip manufacturer for games or for Bitcoin mining.

现在完全不一样了……

It's just completely...

他们恰好处于正确的位置，AI浪潮来了，他们完美地抓住了机会。

They happened to be in the right spot and the AI train came along, and they were perfectly placed.

现在他们成了……

And now they are the...

我称他们为那个体系里的IBM。

Like I call them the IBM of that system.

而且他们还在分红……

And they're dividending...

他们现金流很充足，正在回购股票。

You know, they have a lot of cash that they're generating, and they're, they're buying back shares.

他们发放股息，做了一切正确的信号。

They're paying out dividends and doing all the right signals.

在我看来，他们提前一年给出了指引。

As far as I'm concerned, they extended guidance for a year out.

让我拿内存芯片领域来对比一下，这个领域对很多科技投资者来说以前是痛点。

Let me contrast that with a memory chip area, which is an area of prior pain for a lot of tech investors.

在那里，我们实际上在第二季度给客户发了一封警示邮件，说，我不确定。

There, we actually put a cautionary email out to our clients in Q2 saying, I don't know.

而且，还记得在2024年夏天，我说过NVIDIA的股价是销售额的50倍，是营收的50倍，这有点过头了。

And also, remember in summer of 'twenty four, I did say NVIDIA at 50 times sales, at 50 times revenue was overdone.

我现在就不回看那个图表了。

I won't go back to the chart now.

我在你的采访里说过，就像我会启发你，你知道，那后来证明是个正确的判断。

I said on your interview, like I'd enlighten, you know for that and that turned out to you know to be a the right call.

所以，我并不是一个永远的、永远的乐观主义者。

So it's not like I'm a perma perma bull.

只是我觉得NVIDIA完全是另一种生物。

It's just that I think NVIDIA is just a completely different animal.

这就像把一个21岁的人和两岁的人相比。

It's like comparing a 21 year old to a two year old.

就像，嗯，他们就是不同，你知道吗？

Like, you know, just, well, they're just different, you know?

所以，就是这样，那些都是艰难的决定，因为我说，不，那些内存芯片公司，很多都是21岁，但他们仍然像青少年，我不会，我不会过度高估他们。

So, that's that and that's those are tough calls because I'm saying, no, the memory chip company, a lot of em are 21 but they are still like a teenager, you know, and and I wouldn't and I wouldn't, you know, over overvalue them.

所以，不管怎样，我们走着瞧吧。

So, anyway, you know, we'll we'll we'll see.

我们未来再看吧。

We'll we'll see in the future.

好的。

Okay.

但是，再说一次，我只是想确保大家清楚你想表达的关键点，那就是听起来所有迹象都表明这趟列车会继续高速运行，甚至可能在可预见的未来加速。

But but, again, just wanna make sure folks are clear on the key takeaway you wanted to get from here, which is it sounds like all signs point to this train, you know, continuing to to run hard, maybe even gain speed in the foreseeable future.

大趋势看起来还是一样的。

Big picture trend looks the same.

公开市场纪律性很强。

There is a lot of discipline in the public markets.

私募市场纪律性较弱，这种情况会继续变化，但第三季度没有发生任何系统性问题，让我觉得这个趋势已经结束。

There's less discipline in the private markets, and that will continue to change, but there's nothing so systemic that happened in Q3 that would lead me to say this trend is over.

这对投资组合的构建非常重要。

And it's very important to portfolio construction.

如果你要说，我因为担心科技股而低配股票，或者我不打算超配半导体，而我们在模型里确实超配了半导体，那如果判断错了，代价会非常高昂。

If you're going to say, I'm going to underweight equities because I'm worried about tech, or I'm not going to overweight semis, which we do in our models, that that has been very expensive if you get that wrong.

所以，这可能就是为什么大家可能都厌倦了谈论AI，但它对金融市场和你的投资组合太重要了，这也是为什么我认为质疑假设很重要。

So that's why we probably people are sick of talking about AI, but it's so important for financial market and your portfolios, which is why I think it's important to question assumptions.

好的。

Okay.

所以要非常清楚离开这场盛宴的机会成本。

So be really cognizant of the opportunity cost of of leaving the party.

好的。

Alright.

嘿，克里斯蒂安。

Hey, Christian.

这次能听到你关于私募市场的观点真的很有价值，我会尽快联系你，希望在不久的将来安排一次深入探讨，讲讲这个频道的观众作为散户投资者如何可能更多地参与私募市场。

This has been really valuable having your private, market perspective here, and, I will get back with you on hopefully scheduling at some point in the not too distant future, a deep dive into how the viewers of this channel can learn about potentially becoming more involved in private markets as retail investors.

是的，这是我的荣幸。

Yeah, it's a pleasure.

谢谢邀请我来，抱歉，Jan，如果我讲得太多了，现在把话筒交给你。

Thanks for having me on, and sorry, Jan, if I spoke too much, but I'll give it back to you.

讲得太好了。

That was great.

好的。

Okay.

他还没讲够呢。

He didn't speak enough.

好吧，Adam，教训就是，有嘉宾来的时候，Jan应该少用点幻灯片。

Well, lesson learned, Adam, that when we have guest speakers, Jan should use fewer slides.

不，不是

No, not at

完全不是。

all.

都很好。

It's all great.

好，不分先后，我想回顾一下我们之前讨论过的几个交易。

Okay, in no particular order, I wanted to revisit a couple of different trades that you and I have talked about.

所以我要说，我在第三季度看好半导体和股票是对的。

So I'll call it, I was right for coming into Q3 to be bullish semis and equities.

有一个交易，我只想在这里提一下，就是让我现在继续，抱歉。

There was one trade, which I'll just highlight here, you know, which is let me go forward now, I'm sorry.

所以我认为私募信贷经理的股票在第二季度是很有吸引力的买入机会。

So I thought that private credit managers' equities had kind of or attractive buys in Q2.

当Blue All和其他股票从每股9美元涨到超过12美元，上涨了30%时，我感觉自己像个天才。

And I felt like a genius when Blue All and others rallied up 30% from like $9 a share to over $12 a share.

但同样，被债券所挤压，我会这么说。

But again, squeezed by bonds, I would argue.

把所有的价值都回馈了。

Gave back all of that value.

所以现在，我们看看情况如何。

And so now, we'll see where we're at.

但我确实没预料到十年期利率会上升。

But I certainly didn't anticipate the rise in the ten year.

所以这还是个未知数，我个人不会卖掉我的持仓，但短期我们确实搞错了。

So TBD, I'm not selling my personal position there, but went we get it short term wrong.

我们确实会尽量把短期低估和长期趋势说清楚，但这件事到目前为止还没奏效。

We do try to be clear about shorter term, like undervalued and longer term trends, this was something that has not worked so far.

所以我想谈谈这个。

So I wanted to kind of get to that.

嗯，我很感激。

Well, I appreciate that.

我喜欢你汇报自己的成功和失误，不过目前来说，关键就在这里。

Love the fact that you report on your hits and your misses, although so far is the keyword here.

在我们离开这张幻灯片之前，Jan，快速问一下。

Real quick before we get off the slide, Jan.

你和VanEck现在对私人信贷的健康状况有什么看法吗？

Just do you or VanEck have an opinion right now on the health of private credit?

我觉得我另一个判断失误的地方是，Blue Owl 收到的赎回请求比预期的多。

I think what I got wrong also is that, you know, Blue Owl got more redemption requests.

所以，我想，这样一来，对他们最大的基金之一来说，情况就是这样。

So, I think so, you know, then then for the one of their biggest funds.

所以，我认为，财富管理界需要一段时间才能把这些仓位调整到合适的规模，这是第一点。

So, I think this, it's just going to take a while for the wealth community to get right sized in these positions, number one.

第二点，我认为市场在传达一个信息，这也是这次展望的主题，对吧？

And number two, I think the market is saying, which is the theme of this outlook, right?

债券紧缩，所有这些价值主张，在零利率环境下提供9%、10%的收益率是一回事。

The bond squeeze, all of these value propositions, it's one thing to offer 9%, 10% yields in a zero interest rate environment.

但如果十年期债券的收益率超过5%，情况就不同了，对吧？

It's different if the, you know, if the ten year bond is offering over 5%, right?

这就像，价值主张开始被削弱，所以我的观点是，我们投资组合的其他部分面临更大压力，但考虑到经济的健康状况，我不认为情况会糟到，你懂的，我会预测更低的低点，如果你愿意这么说的话。

It it's just like the value prop is starting to to become diminished and so that's my point is there's more pressure on the on the rest of our portfolios but I don't think it's it's so bad given the health of the economy that you know, that I would predict lower lows, if you will.

好的，是的，我问这个问题的初衷是，大约六个月前，头条新闻里有很多可怕的标题，人们担心这些大型私人信贷 lender 之间会发生传染，甚至可能崩溃。

Okay and and yeah, the spirit of why I asked the question was, you know, six months ago or so in the headlines, you know, there were a lot of dire headlines and people were worried about a contagion and maybe a collapse of some of these big private credit lenders.

听起来你的意思是，别让我曲解你的话，但市场这部分目前面临的压力很大程度上是因为利率。

It sounds like you're saying, and don't let me put words in your mouth, but the pressure that part of the market's under right now is largely due to interest rates.

不是因为持有的资产崩溃了。

It's not due to imploding, you know, holdings.

我觉得当时有三件事在发生……

I mean, there were, I think, three things going...

嗯，今年上半年发生的两件事是，有很多监管审查，这些完全没上头条。

Well, the two things that were going on in the first half of the year was a lot of regulatory scrutiny that was totally not in the headlines.

而且我在很多私下谈话中确认了这一点，因为社交媒体上有很多关于私人信贷错标之类的担忧。

And I've confirmed that in many private conversations because there were all these social media concerns about private credit mismarking and all this kind of stuff.

然后显然还有来自SaaS行业、软件行业的压力。

And then obviously the pressure from the SaaS industry, software industry.

所以这两个基本面因素。

So those two fundamentals.

然后我说，嗯，我觉得这些感觉已经被定价进去了。

And I said, well, I think that feels kind of priced in.

而且你……

And, you know, you're...

Blau 的股权仍然在支付非常可观的股息。

The the equity of Blau is still is still paying a very healthy dividend.

所以，你等得起，但你知道，我只是想重新审视一下那个交易。

So, you get paid to wait but you know, it's it's I just wanted to kind of revisit that that that trade in particular.

好的。

Alright.

嗯，再次感谢你这么坦诚。

Well, again, I appreciate you being so honestly transparent.

好的，没问题。

Well, alright.

现在，我要快速讲完第三季度的结论，利率上升不是因为信用问题。

Now, I'm going to still go really quickly through the conclusion of the Q3 event and the rise in interest rates is not due to credit concerns.

不是因为通胀担忧，而是因为经济增长。

It's not due to inflation concerns, but it's due to economic growth.

所以我有几张新幻灯片，也有几张旧的，但我想这次不会像上周那样花那么长时间，不过我觉得把这个放一边很重要。

And so I have a couple of new slides and a couple of old slides, but I think I'm not nearly going to take as long as we went through this last week, but I think it's important to put this aside.

所以……

So...

抱歉打断一下，就很快说一句。

And sorry to interject, but real quick.

当你把那页幻灯片放出来的时候，我本来想插嘴说，我知道答案。

When you put that slide up, I was gonna pipe up and say, I know the answer.

我知道的原因是因为那是你在会议上演讲的全部重点。

And the reason why I knew it was c was because that was the whole focus of your presentation at the conference.

各位，如果你们真的想了解是什么在推动债券收益率，以及为什么是经济增长而不是媒体上那些其他担忧，那就去看一下Jan在会议上的演讲。

And folks, if you really wanna understand what's driving bond yields and why it is economic growth versus all those other concerns that, you know, swirl around in the media, go watch Jan's presentation from the conference.

如果你没有参加那次会议，你仍然可以在thoughtfulmoney.com/replay购买重播。

And if you didn't attend the conference, you can still buy the replays at thoughtfulmoney.com/replay.

Jan的演讲真是精彩绝伦。

Jan's presentation was a real tour de force.

抱歉，简，但我就是想说出来。

Sorry, Jan, but just wanted to get that out there.

哦，那挺好的。

Oh, well, that's nice.

这将会...

I mean, it'll...

这将会是一个非常简短的版本。

This this will be a very short version of that.

所以，实际上，人们说油价一直引领债券走势，或者它们一起变动，这在夏末确实如此。

So, effectively, people say that oil prices have been leading bonds or trading together, which they did at the end of the summer.

但那只是暂时的现象。

But that was only a temporary phenomenon.

即使现在，在过去几天里，你看到油价上涨，债券收益率却下降。

And even now, over the last couple of days, you've seen oil prices go higher and bond yields fall.

所以我想说的是，那有点像是假新闻的叙事，而且通胀并没有上升到令人担忧的程度。

So I'm I'm just saying that's sort of a little bit of a fake news narrative, and and inflation's not rising so much that this is an inflationary concern.

我也不认为……

I also don't think...

我非常……

I'm very...

我是因为政府支出而成为最大的债券持有者，但我不认为那是原因，我稍后会解释。

I'm the biggest bond bearer out there because of government spending, but I don't think that that's what that is, and explain that in a second.

但我觉得最重要的，而且我们马上会看到图表，就是美元的强势。

But the most important thing that I look at, and we'll see the chart in a second, is just the strength of the dollar.

所以如果人们真的在抛售美国，他们也会抛售美元。

So if people were really selling The United States, they'd be selling the U.

美元。

S.

也会抛售美元。

Dollar as well.

然后我们实际上会看到一个图表，是关于经济增长的，我认为这才是真正推动实际收益率的关键。

And then we'll see actually a chart here, is new, on economic growth, which I think is really what's leading real yields.

所以提醒一下大家，十年期收益率在第三季度末或夏末的时候飙升了一下，所以这并不新鲜。

So just to remind people, the ten year spiked here at the end of the third quarter or the end of the summer, so nothing new.

我的观点是，对于那些说这是通货膨胀导致的人，我认为这是错的，因为在战争和油价上涨的最初几个月里，债券收益率并没有上升，价格也没有下跌。

My point is for people who say it's been inflation, I think that's wrong because it for the first many months of the war and higher oil prices, bonds did not go up in yield or down in value.

所以我只是认为那是一个短期的相关性，并不是根本性的。

So I just think that it was a short term correlation that wasn't fundamental.

所以亚当，你在这里看到的，是我之前没有的，名义增长率，也就是那条黑线，正在上升。

So what you see here, Adam, which I didn't have, is nominal growth, which is the black line, is rising.

而这可能会拉动十年期收益率。

And that can pull ten year yields.

这是一个非常简单的概念，如果经济增长强劲，那么对信贷的需求就会增加，这就会推高利率。

And it's a very simple concept, which is if economic growth is strong, then there's going to be more demand for credit and that would bring interest rates higher.

所以这正是我上周所说的，但我现在有了名义增长的图表，你可以看到它们都上升了。

So that's exactly what I kind of said last week, but I actually have the chart of nominal growth and you can see how they both ticked up higher.

这很有趣，对吧？

And it's funny, right?

看这张图，如果你过去几个月听媒体的，你会觉得世界末日要来了。

With this chart, you'd think, you know, if you listen to the media over the last couple of months, you think the world was ending.

但你看这张图，几乎找不到什么波动。

You look at this chart, you can barely find a blip.

不过，这就是我们讨论的内容。

But anyway, that's what we're talking about.

所以，你知道，关于霍尔木兹海峡，还有一个数据点。

So, just you know, another, you know, data point on the Strait Of Hormuz.

债券收益率跟随伊朗的新闻，其实只在几周内如此，这确实不是事实。

You know, it just is not true that bond yields followed the the the Iran narrative closely only for a period of weeks.

这才是核心故事，实际收益率，也就是扣除通胀后的收益率，换句话说，利率上升有两个原因。

And this is really the bottom line story, which is real yields, so yields less inflation, which is another way of saying interest rates go up for two reasons.

要么因为通胀上升，要么因为经济繁荣，信贷需求增加。

They go up because of inflation or they go up for a booming economy, demand for credit.

而你现在的情况就是经济繁荣，通胀并不是主要驱动因素，否则这些实际收益率应该是平稳的。

And that's what you have is you have a booming economy that inflation really is not driving it because otherwise these real yields would be flat.

然后，把实际收益率放到多年的背景下来看，他们会说，哦，他们的利率比过去二十年都高。

And then to put real yields in multi year context, they say, oh, their interest rates are higher than they've been in twenty years.

这是事实，但你确实得把金融危机后的整个时期排除在外，因为政策制定者做了美国历史上从未见过的事情。

That's true, but you really have to throw out this entire post financial crisis time period because policymakers were doing things that you've never seen before in US history.

所以回头去看那个时期并以此作比较，其实挺傻的。

And so it's just sort of silly to look backwards and refer to that.

但除此之外，看看2%的实际收益率，我可以说这并不异常，对吧？

But otherwise, to look at 2% real yields, I I I could say that that's not abnormal, right?

对，你可以说跟过去15年相比，这其实算低的。

Yeah, you could say it's actually pretty low compared to the past 15.

是的，我有些同事觉得这还不够高，但你知道，这个争论我们改天再谈。

Yeah, some of my colleagues think it's not high enough but you know, I'll leave that debate for another time.

总之，这就是美元的情况，对吧？

Anyway, so here's the dollar, right?

就像我说的，让我对市场最近的变动不那么担心的最强因素，就是美元对其他发达市场国家的货币一直保持强势。

Just like I said, the strongest thing that makes me worried less about the recent move in the markets is just that the dollar has held strong against other developed market countries.

所以，还有最后一点，或者说接近最后一点，基本上就是债券的波动性其实并没有特别高。

So, you know, and then the last thing or close to last, basically, the volatility of bonds, you know, just has not been super high.

所以这并不像那种恐慌性的市场崩溃。

So it's not this kind of freak out market meltdown.

人们可能有点觉得是这样，但说实话，从整体来看，并不是你看到的那种情况。

It felt like that to people a little bit, but that's really, in, again, in perspective, not what you've seen.

所以我只是觉得，至少解释一下我们的假设是什么，这很重要。

So I just think it's important to kind of at least explain what our assumptions are.

然后，你知道，这些是数据。

And then, know, this is data.

这里有一点，这正好涉及到你关于私人信贷的问题，有两样东西在增加。

There's a little bit, and this goes to your private credit question, of increase in two things.

一个是贷款的交易量。

So one is the volume of trades of loans.

然后，那个灰色区域就是交易量。

And then so that's just the gray area, the volume.

所以我不太确定。

So I don't know.

对我来说，这算是私人市场周转的一个好迹象。

It's kind of good to me that's the turnover in the private markets.

克里斯蒂安在股权方面也能体会到这一点。

Christian can experience this on the equity side of the ledger.

然后那条蓝线，有点难看清，是标记为低于每美元0.80美元的贷款比例。

And then the blue line, which is a little hard to read, is the percent of loans marked below effectively $0.80 on the dollar.

所以它在今年上半年有所上升，现在基本稳定在那里。

So, you know, it kind of rose in the first half of the year and is kind of settling in there.

所以亚当，这可能是我们未来可以关注的一个点。

So maybe this is something that we can keep an eye on going forward, Adam.

这只是一个不同的视角。

That's just another perspective.

银行贷款是抵押贷款义务的一部分，也是经济融资的主要部分，但这只是看待高收益的另一种方式，因为高收益发行会减少。

Loans, you know, bank loans are part of collateralized loan obligations and they're a major part of financing of the the economy but it's just it's sort of another another way of looking at high yield because high yield issuances come off.

所以，这只是一个额外的数据点，也许我们以后会把它纳入考虑。

So, it's just another data point that maybe we'll start including going forward.

好的，在资金成本上升的情况下，你确实会开始预期看到这种情况发生，对吧？

Okay and you'd kind of start to expect to see that happen a little bit in a world where the cost of money is increasing, right?

没错。

Exactly.

没错，而且你知道，私人市场中的信贷压力存在时间延迟，对吧？

Exactly and and and you know, there's a time delay on credit pressures in the private markets, right?

我们不一定按市场价值来标记这些贷款。

We're not marking these loans to market necessarily.

那是另一个完全不同的讨论。

I mean, that's a whole separate discussion.

但就像COVID之后，商业房地产市场花了好几年才慢慢解决其信贷问题。

But kind of like it took after COVID, it took the commercial real estate market several years to kind of work through its credit issues.

可以说，他们现在还在处理中。

Arguably, they still are.

这需要一段时间才能消化。

You know, this will take a while to work through too.

所以这是个值得关注的事情。

So it's something good to watch.

好的。

Alright.

好的。

Alright.

那么，这就是关于利率的讨论，抱歉，这个版本里有些幻灯片重复了。

So, that's interest rates again and sorry that we had some of these slides were duped, I guess, in this version.

所以很容易就能翻过去。

So, easily flipping through.

好的。

Okay.

那么，大的宏观趋势就是政府赤字问题，我只是不想让第三季度回顾和第四季度展望就这样过去，而不提我们财政预算赤字的数据非常糟糕。

So, the the big macro trend is this government deficit problem, and I just didn't want to let the Q3 review and Q4 outlook go by without saying that we had a really bad print for our fiscal budget deficit.

就只看这一行赤字占GDP的百分比，特朗普上任的第一年，这个数字降得不错，像我这样的乐观主义者还希望这个数据能继续下降，结果却完全反着来了。

So looking at just this low of this row of percent of deficit as a percent of GDP, Trump's first hybrid year, it fell nicely, and optimists like me were hoping for a further fall in this data point, and it went exactly the wrong direction.

收入方面，税收收入比预期的要少。

Revenue was less tax revenue was less than expected.

大部分是因为关税，关税收入减少了，然后支出还是居高不下。

Most of that was tariff, loss of tariff revenue and then, you know, outlays were still still up.

所以，两者加起来，预算赤字达到了两万亿，不管怎么说，这都是一个长期的大问题，而且，我再说一遍，所谓长期，就是说翻译成具体时间的话，可能是五年，也可能是十年。

So, the combination meant that the budget deficit hit 2,000,000,000,000 and anyway, that this is a big long term problem and and again, when I say long term, it means translation, Jan can't time it, could be five years, could be ten years.

这只是为了让人们理解我到底在说什么，但不管怎样，这只是又一次确认，然后这张幻灯片显示的是——再说一遍，这些幻灯片会通过Adam的渠道提供给听众——以前很多很多年，日本债券买家可以购买美元对冲债券，获得比在国内更高的收益率。

You know, just for people trying to understand what I'm actually saying but anyway, it's just it it's just another confirmation and then, this just is is a slide that shows and again, these slides will be available to listeners through Adam's distribution, but it used to be a messy world for many, many years where Japanese bond buyers could buy U.

美元

S.

对冲债券，收益率比在日本国内高。

Hedged bonds and get a higher yield than they could at home.

但现在全球利率都高了，这个日本买家宁愿直接买日本债券，就是这条线，也不买对冲的美元债券。

But now with higher interest rates globally, this Japanese buyer would rather just buy Japanese bonds, which is this line, than hedged U.

美国

S.

国债。

Dollar bonds.

所以从边际上看，美国

So on the margin, just The U.

国债

S.

是在全球范围内竞争，对吧？

Bonds are fighting in a global world, right?

如果你了解范埃克的观点，我们生活在一个全球化的世界里。

If you know anything about VanEck's perspective is we live in a global world.

我们不是生活在一个以美国

We don't live in a U.

为中心的世界，你知道，我们在争夺日本投资者的资金。

S centric world and you know, we're competing for Japanese dollars.

在这种利率环境下，这有点困难。

It's a little bit tougher in this in this interest rate environment.

然后

And then

抱歉，如果我可以插一句。

Sorry if I could.

让我确保大家真的理解这一点。

Let me just make sure people really get that.

现在有很多头条新闻说其他国家因为对美国失去信心而放弃国债，但Jan，你真正想说的是，不是这样，只是他们在本国市场现在能获得更好的交易，相比过去几年。

There's a lot of headlines out there about the, you know, other countries giving up on the treasuries because they they've they're losing faith in The US And really what you're saying, Jan, is no, it's just that they're getting a a better deal in their home markets today versus past years.

所以他们只是选择了眼前最好的交易。

And so they're just taking the deal that's in front of them.

这就是当今全球收益率升高的一个后果。

And that's one of the consequences of these higher yields worldwide these days.

所以这并不一定是对美国失去信心的表现。

So it's not a necessary loss of confidence in The U.

美国。

S.

他们只是在国内市场得到了更好的交易。

It's just they're just getting a better deal in their home market.

完全正确。

A 100%.

而且斯科特·贝森特非常清楚这一点。

And Scott Bessent knows this very well.

记得他最初的行动之一就是与日本人有关。

Remember one of his first moves was relating to the Japanese.

对。

Yep.

日本人。

Japanese.

所以，完全正确，对吧？

So, 100%, right?

这跟评判无关。

And it's not judgment.

这不过是超市经济学，对吧？

It's just it's just grocery economics, right?

我会买更便宜的香蕉。

I buy the cheaper bananas.

然后这是来自中国的数据，为了节省时间我就不细看图表了，但看看右边的要点，我觉得这些要点很惊人，它们是从弗雷德·希基的通讯里借来的。

And then this is from just China, and I would forget the chart for a second in the interest of time, but look at the bullet points on the right, which I think are dramatic and they're borrowed from Fred Hickey's newsletter.

今年，中国一直是黄金的大买家。

This year, China has been huge buyers of gold.

全球黄金产量的大约46%被中国购买。

About 46 of global gold production is being purchased by China.

这里重要的事实是，这不是中央银行在购买。

And the important fact here is this is not the central bank.

人们总是谈论他们的中央银行在购买黄金。

People talk about their central bank buying all the time.

你得看他们的私人购买，或者非央行购买。

You have to look at their private purchases or non central bank purchases.

所以第二点，那是去年速度的两倍。

So second bullet, that's double the pace of last year.

而且这也是历史最高纪录，让大家知道一下。

And it's an all time record too, just so folks know that it's.

哦，对。

Oh yeah.

是的。

Yep.

所以，然后你看到，集体来看，我不知道发生了什么，但他们似乎是聪明的买家。

And so and then you see that the the collectively, I don't know what's going on but they seem to be smart buyers.

所以去年年底金价上涨时他们买得少，而今年金价开始下跌时他们买得更多。

So they were buying less gold as it was rallying at the end of last year and more as the price of gold started falling this year.

所以……

So...

然后，把他们的活动和国债持有量做个对比，因为他们正让国债到期。

And then just to juxtapose their activity against treasury holdings, since they're letting that mature.

这大约是2013年峰值水平的一半，抱歉，是2013年。

That's about half the level of its peak in 2008 sorry, in 2013.

是的，这没什么新鲜的，但再说一次，要出售国债，我们得把它卖到一个全球市场，那里有人购买其他资产。

Yeah, I mean nothing new, but again, to sell treasuries, we have to sell it into a global market where there's people buying other assets.

对。

Yep.

私人参与者和中央银行。

Private actors and central banks.

好的。

All right.

天哪，我要试着……

Boy, I'm going to try to...

我在这里会快很多，也许我们可以改天再讨论这个，亚当。

I'll be much faster here and maybe we can revisit this some other time, Adam.

这真的取决于你。

It it's really up to you.

我不知道我们有多少时间，但是

I don't know how much time we have but

你想用多少时间都可以。

We have as much time as as you'd like to take.

所以，别太有压力，朋友。

So, don't feel too pressured, my friend.

好的。

Okay.

我们经常谈论大宗商品，而我想做的是就黄金和能源股票提出一些观点，因为我仍然觉得它们就像被忽视的继子一样，投资者们并没有太多关注它们。

So, you know, we talk about commodities a lot and what I wanted to do is is make some points about gold and energy commodity equities because I still feel they're like the red headed stepchild that you know, investors are not, focusing on much.

而且我之前说过，我对黄金未来十年非常看好。

And as I've said before, I am ten year very bullish on gold.

而且我认为我所关注的所有技术指标，比如ETF购买之类的，都表明我们正处于长期牛市的最早期阶段。

And I think that all the technicals I look at, like ETF buying or whatever, suggest we're in early, early innings of a long term bull market there.

这个我之前几个季度也说过。

And I've said that in prior quarters.

不过，我们具体在说什么呢？

But just so what are we talking about?

这些公司在过去十年左右的时间里，确实有了很大的改观。

And there's these companies have really fixed themselves in a major way over the last kind of decade or so.

在零利率时代，你可以看到这些金矿公司的净债务，就是图上黑色的部分，非常庞大，对吧？

So in the era of zero interest rates, you can see that the net debt in black here of gold mining companies was just huge, right?

毫不意外，随着金价开始上涨，他们已经把债务都还清了。

And no surprise, as gold prices started rallying, they've paid off all of that debt.

而且他们现在不是，这对能源公司来说也一样。

And they are not and this is true for energy companies, too.

他们不再是过去那种高杠杆的玩家了。

They're just not leveraged players the way they used to be.

所以我觉得这一点很重要。

And so I think that's an important insight.

我觉得这也挺有意思的。

I think it was also interesting.

我是被弗雷德·希基那种买下所有金矿产量的说法给触动了。

I was tweaked by Fred Hickey's kind of buying all of gold mine production.

所以我就想，最近矿产量有什么变化呢？

So I was like, oh, what's changed recently in mining production?

中国是世界上最大的黄金生产国，其次是俄罗斯。

China is the leading gold producer in the world, followed by Russia.

这里较浅的线代表最近一年，再接下来是澳大利亚。

The lighter line here is the most recent year, and then followed by Australia.

南非在这下面，大约在三分之二的位置，他们以前因为深矿而成为主要的黄金生产国，但相对于世界其他地区，他们的黄金产量一直在慢慢减少。

South Africa is below here, about two thirds of the way down, and they used to be the dominant gold producer because of their deep mines, but they've, you know, been slowly decreasing the amount of gold relative to the rest of the world.

所以，他们转移了，而美国。

So, they've shifted and The U.

美国。

S.

相对而言，美国的情况也发生了变化。

Relatively has has shifted as well.

所以，没有太大的新发现。

So, no huge insight.

只是觉得挺有意思的，看看黄金是在哪里生产的。

Just kind of interesting to see you know, you know, where the where the gold is being produced.

对，就是看哪里在活跃。

Where the action's happening, yeah.

这个图表真的很震撼，虽然我不确定这是不是最好的展示方式，但所有资源公司都面临这个问题，这也是为什么这些大宗商品周期随时间变化很大的原因，但确实很难再找到更多的黄金了。

This this is really dramatic and and I don't know if this is the best chart to show it but all resource companies and this is what makes these commodity cycles very different over time, but it's really hard to find more gold.

这些金矿公司在生产上的投入相对而言并没有那么多，和石油行业一样，但他们确实也没有发现很多新的矿藏。

And these gold mining companies are not spending that as much relatively speaking on production, same as on the oil side, but they're really not finding a lot either.

所以即使产量在增加，他们也没有发现新的金矿，而且这种情况一直没有改变。

So even though production is going up, they're not finding the new gold mines and that hasn't changed.

这意味着现有公司拥有的资产变得相当有价值。

So that means with the assets that the existing companies own are pretty valuable.

石油行业也是一样的情况。

And this is the oil industry, same thing.

他们在资金投入方面变得非常有纪律性。

They've become very disciplined in terms of you know, the amount of money going in.

那么投资者应该从中得到什么启示呢？

So so what's the, you know, the kind of takeaway, you know, for investors?

我觉得展望未来的能源股票，有几件事值得注意。

I I think there are a couple of things looking at energy shares going forward.

一是石油产量一直在上升，但我们在某个时候会达到页岩油周期的尽头。

One is that probably so oil production has kept going up but we're we're at some point going to reach the end of the shale cycle.

所以美国

So U.

的

S.

石油产量每天增加了八百万、九百万、一千万桶，这种情况不太可能重演。

Oil production has gone up eight, nine, 10,000,000 barrels a day, and that's unlikely to repeat.

而且全球的石油需求还在不断上升。

And oil demand keeps going up globally.

所以这算是一个利好因素。

So you've got that as kind of a bullish thing.

我觉得还有一点，就是股票价格并没有反映出油价上涨的趋势。

I would say that also the equities are not pricing in higher oil prices.

如果你看2027年的商品价格，它们仍然很高。

So if you look at the commodities prices for 2027, they're still high.

但能源股票却不是这样。

That's not true for energy equities.

我想能源股票的买家其实并不太相信这一点。

Guess the energy equity buyers are not really believing that.

然后我觉得最误导或者难以理解的一点是，他们并没有讲出他们最好的故事，如果你愿意这么说的话。

And then the biggest thing I think that's misleading or hard to understand, it's like they're not telling their best story, if you will.

所以能源公司在支付股息，这并不太令人兴奋。

So energy companies are paying dividends, which, you know, they're not that exciting.

就是这里的这条蓝线。

That's the blue line here.

所以他们的股息率，大概在2%到4%之间，而现在的利率环境是5%。

So they're paying dividends of, let's call it, 2% to 4% in a 5% interest rate world.

这确实没什么吸引力。

That's not exciting.

但他们真正做的，是用庞大的现金流回购大量股票，这就是黄色部分。

But what they're really doing with their huge cash flow is they're buying back a ton of shares and that's what's in yellow.

Meb Faber用了一个词，叫股东收益率，他的意思是，作为现有股东，你不仅获得了股息，还因为回购导致总股数减少，你的持股比例上升，从而获得价值。

There's Meb a, Faber uses this word, I don't know, shareholder yield, where he's saying like, you're an existing shareholder, you're getting the value of dividends paid out, but also stock buybacks effectively because the number of shares are shrinking, so your percentage ownership of that company is going up.

这些数字对我们投资组合里的一些公司来说，确实挺有吸引力的。

And those numbers are pretty attractive, right, for some of the companies that we own in our portfolios.

大概在百分之七到百分之十几之间。

They're in the you know, high single digits, low double digits.

所以如果你只看雅虎财经之类的数据，会觉得这些能源公司股息低，但实际上你漏掉了三分之二的故事。

So if you just look at, you know, kind of your Yahoo Finance or whatever, you say, ah, these energy companies, they're low dividends, you're missing actually two thirds of the story.

所以，不管怎样，我觉得在我们经常谈论大宗商品的时候，这是一个有趣的见解。

So, anyway, just thought as as we talk about commodities a lot, this is, an interesting insight.

好的。

Okay.

那么，从大局来看，回到你几分钟前用的一个词。

So, a big picture kind of going back to a term I think you used a few minutes ago.

大宗商品尽管在运营等方面表现强劲，但仍然……

Commodities are still despite their strong performance here operationally and whatnot.

它们仍然是华尔街眼中的“继子”。

They're still kind of Wall Street's redheaded stepchild.

它们就是……

They're they're just...

它们现在正处于危险地带。

They're riding danger field right now.

它们就是没有得到足够的尊重，尽管可能值得。

They're just not getting enough respect, despite likely deserving it.

对，我们这个行业，就是理财顾问行业，总体来说，我们做过一项研究，网站上就有，相对于十年前或二十年前，我们在实物资产上的配置比例远远不足。

Yeah, I mean, our industry, right, financial advisor industry, generally speaking, we did a study on this, that's available on our website, is way underweight real assets relative to where they were ten or twenty years ago.

部分原因是被动的，随着科技的发展，能源在标普500中的占比大幅缩水，对吧？

Part of that is just passively as tech has grown, the percent of energy in the S and P has shrunk dramatically, right?

所以没有人主动做什么，但人们也没有把新的资金投入到实物资产中。

So that no one did anything, but also people haven't been putting fresh money to work in real assets.

可能整整一代投资者都没有关注过这些资产的回报。

There's probably been a whole generation of investors that just has not looked at those returns.

不过现在回报已经回来了，如果你愿意这么说的话。

The returns have returned, if you will.

过去三年和五年的回报相当有吸引力，但这里只是想稍微澄清一下误解，以及为什么我们对实物资产有显著的配置，不仅仅是因为我们认为黄金在回升，所以这不仅仅是黄金，而是实物资产。

The trailing three and five year returns are pretty attractive, but there's a just trying to help a little bit with the misunderstanding and, you know, why we have a significant weight to real assets, not just, you know, because we think that gold is returning, and so it's not a gold only real And assets

再次感谢VanEck与我们的大会参与者分享这些内容。

and again, thanks to VanEck for sharing with our conference goers.

这算是VanEck做的几份关于实物资产论据的报告的汇编，这些报告非常有用。

It's kind of a compilation of several reports that VanEck did on the case for real assets is are very useful reports.

我就想请你推测一下，简。

I'm just gonna ask you to speculate for a second, Jan.

你觉得华尔街要怎样才能意识到这里发生的情况？

But what do you think it's gonna take for Wall Street to kinda wake up to what's going on here?

是不是只需要时间，让这些公司继续在运营上表现优异，还是会有别的事情？

Is it is it just gonna take time where these companies are just gonna keep, you know, over performing operationally, or is it gonna be something else?

会不会是如果科技行业受挫，他们突然开始寻找其他优势，然后也许会更青睐这个被忽视的领域，还是他们只需要继续交出亮眼的成绩，最终有人会注意到。

Is it gonna be something, you know, if tech stumbles, do they all of a sudden start looking for where else their strength and then maybe start looking at this red headed child a little bit more fondly or do they just need to keep keep posting, you know, great numbers and then finally, somebody will take notice.

对，听着，我觉得，再说一次，这个整体时间快照的主题是更高的利率，对吧？

Yeah, look, I think, again, the theme of this overall kind of snapshot in time is higher interest rates, right?

更高的十年期利率会给投资组合的其他部分带来压力。

Higher ten year rates are going to put pressure on the rest of your portfolio.

很多这种情况已经发生了，对吧？

A lot of that has happened, right?

等权重的标普、道琼斯、房屋建筑商，对吧？

Equal weight S and P, Dow, homebuilders, right?

已经有很多行业基本上都感受到了高利率带来的痛苦。

There's a lot of sectors that have already basically reflected the pain of higher interest rates.

对。

Yep.

所以，我只是想说，这就是第三季度发生的事情。

So that, I'm just saying that's what happened in Q3.

这就是第三季度最值得关注的事情。

That's the most interesting thing that happened in Q3.

然后你看看那些因此受到影响的投资，它们必须向股东证明自己的价值。

And then you look around at some of the positions that have been hurt by that and they have to demonstrate their value to shareholders.

而且我觉得，就像私人信贷的投资者，他们在价格重新调整的过程中得到了回报，对吧？

And I think, you know, like the investors in private credit, they're getting paid for, you know, as prices readjusted, right?

而且我觉得能源行业的股东们也得到了回报。

And I think energy shareholders are getting paid as well.

好的。

Okay.

所以这更像是让人安心持有，而不是说，嘿，这是2027年最热门最酷的想法，你明白我的意思吧。

So it's more comfort owning rather than, hey, this is the greatest hottest idea for 2027, if you know what I mean.

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，我只是，我和频道上的很多观众都至少接触过一些硬资产，我们这里有很多黄金持有者，他们一直反复问那个问题，比如，什么时候才能得到应有的回报？

Well, I mean, I just, I and many of the viewers here at the channel have at least some exposure to hard assets and and we've got a lot of gold owners here and they just keep perennially asking that question like, when is it gonna get its due?

好吧，我们可以谈谈……

Well, we can we can talk about...

这是我关于比特币和黄金的一页纸。

So this is my one page on Bitcoin and gold.

我对比特币的看法没有改变。

Just my view on Bitcoin hasn't changed.

今年年初的时候，我是持悲观态度的。

I was bearish coming into the year.

我当时说第二季度是购买的好时机。

I said q two is a great time to buy.

这一点上，我看起来确实很明智。

This I'm looking really smart on.

我仍然认为，这种交易是周期中的正常部分，而且我长期看好黄金。

I I still think, you know, the the happening trade was a normal part of the cycle and, you know, I I like gold for the long run.

我说过，听着，黄金可能需要一两年才能调整过来，对吧？

I said, listen, it could take a year or two for gold to correct, right?

今年早些时候，它曾大幅上涨，创下历史新高。

It had a tremendous run up up into all time highs earlier this year.

所以，我再次从十年的角度来看待这个问题，你知道，全球投资者，尤其是今年我们看到的中国投资者，希望把它纳入他们的投资组合，因为对他们来说，这代表着安全和保障。

So again, I look at it from a ten year perspective where you know, global investors, and we see the Chinese, especially this year, want to have it in their portfolios because that is the view of safety and security for them.

你确实已经用多种方式说过这一点，但当我们谈论债券挤压股票时，实际利率也会挤压黄金，对吧？

And you've certainly said this a number of different ways, but when we talk about bonds squeezing equities, real interest rates also squeeze gold, right?

债券在相对基础上显得更有吸引力，毕竟它比那些没有收益的资产强多了。

Bonds just like a lot on a relative basis, a lot more attractive to something that does not pay you a yield.

这有点太从美国的角度出发了，但你的观点确实成立，对吧？

I mean, that's a little bit too much of a US perspective, but but but but your point holds, right?

因为全球利率都变高了。

Because global interest rates are higher.

没错。

Yep.

所以我一直想提醒大家，这不只是美国的问题。

So I always want to remind people it's not just U.

美国。

S.

是的，利率的影响完全是这样的。

Interest rates, but 100%.

我之前也说过，这是很合理的情况。

And I said, it's reasonable.

几乎想来一次修正，对吧？

Almost want a correction, right?

当你有如此大的涨幅时，我认为这次修正已经相当有纪律了，对吧？

When you have when you have such a run up and I would argue that the correction has been pretty well disciplined, right?

在很多方面都是这样，对吧？

In in in many ways, right?

它保持在每盎司4美元，而且需要一些时间，但不管怎样，我仍然长期看好。

It it's held $4.00 an ounce and and, you know, it'll take some time, but, anyway, I'm I'm still still long term bullish.

好的，太好了。

Okay, great.

所以，我必须承认，在你们播客上我可能最糟糕的预测就是印度，我仍然喜欢它，但自从我们开始谈论它以来，它几乎遭遇了所有你能想象到的坏消息。

So, I have to, you know, my absolute probably worst call on on your your podcast is is India, which I still like, but it's got almost every single piece of bad news you could possibly imagine since we started talking about it.

而且，我只想说，伊朗冲突对它来说真的很难，因为它是能源进口国。

And, I will I will only say the Iran Conflict has been really hard for it because it's an energy importer.

你知道，关税也没帮上忙。

Know, tariffs didn't help.

AI的担忧，他们因为做了很多外包服务而受到了AI的负面影响，但又因为国内没有本土的存储芯片制造商之类的，所以也没能从中受益。

The AI concerns, It got the downside of AI because they do a lot of servicing IT's outsourcing, and they get any of the benefit AI because they don't have any native memory chip makers or anything like that.

很多因素都对它不利。

A lot of things have worked against it.

再说一次，我称这为十年期的交易，但代价确实很大，所以我得承认这一点。

Again, I call this a kind of ten year trade, but it's been very expensive, so I have to own up to that.

另一方面，现在大家都对印度失去了信心，它的估值终于降到了底部区间。

On the flip side, now that everyone has given up on India, it's finally getting to the bottom of its valuation range.

所以再说一次，对于有冒险精神的投资者来说，你知道，只要做美元成本平均法，现在不是个坏的买入时机。

So again, for adventurous investors, know, just dollar cost averaging and this is not a bad time to be buying.

这里的问题是，印度市场在价格收益比上一直很贵，因为很多人像我一样对这个国家的未来非常乐观，它有着最高的GDP增长率，并且正在真正发展成为世界第四大消费市场。

You know, the the issue here if is that the Indian market has perennially been expensive on a price to earnings basis because a lot of people are as bullish as I am about the the future of the country, printing the highest GDP growth rates and really developing into the fourth major consumer market in the world.

预计十年内它的市场规模会达到欧洲的水平。

It's supposed to hit the size of Europe in ten years.

所以这些都是大格局上的事情，但也有很多小的摩擦和挫折，就像小伤口一样。

So all those big picture things, but a lot of micro nicks and cuts, paper cuts.

好的。

Okay.

但从宏观大环境来看，相关的发展机遇其实并没有发生实质性的变化。

But the big macro picture, nothing's really changed there in terms of the opportunity.

而且从现在的估值水平来看，相对来说，这是过去四年里投资印度市场成本比较低的一个时期。

And the pricing is getting such that on a relative basis, this is one of the cheaper ways, cheaper times to buy India in the past four years.

对，我觉得说白了，这就是一个崇尚股权投资的市场氛围，对吧？

Yeah, mean, look, I I guess I basically say that it's an equity culture, right?

作为它的股东是没问题的。

It's okay to be a shareholder.

它给股东的回报其实和美国市场的水平差不多。

Their shareholder returns actually match that of The U.

就是这样。

S.

已经有很长一段时间了。

For a long period of time.

印度每年都有几百个IPO完成。

Hundreds of IPOs are getting done every year in India.

所以你知道，这真的很重要。

So you know, that is really important.

经济增长本身并不重要，对吧？

Economic growth in and of itself doesn't matter, right?

但经济增长加上去监管化和经济数字化，这才让我兴奋。

But it's that combined with the deregulation and also the digitization of their economy that gets me excited.

好的。

Okay.

我们以后会专门深入讨论印度，亚当。

We'll do a drill down at some point, Adam, I think, you know, on on India in particular.

我只是不想假装我没有在这上面损失很多钱。

I just wanted to not pretend that I'm not losing a lot of money on this.

好的。

Alright.

太好了。

Great.

不。

No.

我非常感谢你让大家了解你的情况，尽管它的表现相对不佳，但潜力可能仍然很大。

I very much appreciate you keeping folks informed as to sort of where you are despite its its relative poor performance, but, big opportunity potentially still there.

还有，Jan，你记得在会议期间，我问大家是否想对印度进行深入探讨，他们的反应简直热烈极了。

And Jan, you remember during the conference, I asked folks, if they wanted to do a deep dive on India, and and they were just like, the response was deafening.

所以，是的，我们来做吧。

So yes, let's do that.

然后在另一个时间，我们再和Christian一起深入探讨私人投资方面的事情。

And then on a separate time, let's do a deep dive with Christian again on the private investing side of things.

我本应该一直这样做，但特别是对于那些有兴趣接触印度市场的人，VanEck有几只基金可以做到这一点。

I should have been doing this along the way, but particularly for people that are interested in gaining exposure to India, VanEck has a couple of funds to be able to do that.

你记得这些基金的代码吗？

Do you know the tickers off the top of your head?

当然。

I mean, sure.

不深入细节的话，我只想说，我们的印度基金不是按市值加权的指数基金。

Without getting into that, I would just say our India funds aren't cap weighted index funds.

就像，我们不是……这个国家正在经历很多变革。

Like we don't there is a lot of disruption happening in the country.

所以，我想就说到这里吧。

And so, you know, I I would rather just leave it at that.

我觉得，如果我不提具体细节，对合规来说更容易。

I think it's easier for compliance if I leave out if I don't.

好的。

Okay.

虽然不提供股票代码，但你知道，我们对我们每只ETF都投入了很多思考，尤其是印度相关的。其中一个是主动管理的，另一个采用的是智能贝塔策略。

Tickers but just you know, we think we put a lot of thought into each of our ETFs, but our India ones in particular, and one is actively managed and others like a smart beta approach.

所以，我就说到这里吧。

So, you know, that's, I'll just put that in.

好的，那么对于想了解更多关于这些产品以及我们讨论过的资产相关的其他VanEck解决方案的朋友们，他们可以去vaneck.com看看。

Okay, so then just sort of general note for folks that want to learn more about them and learn more about any other VanEck solutions related to the assets that we've talked about here, they should go to vaneck.com.

是的，没错。

That's yes.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

谢谢

Thank you

你帮我宣传了。

for the plug.

我只是想让这些内容对受到启发的人更实用一些。

Just trying to make it practically act practically actionable for people that are inspired by all this.

对，我会浏览一下这个页面，因为我提到了我们所有的交易，但这只是对我们上个季度展望的回顾，大致就是赚钱、持平、持平、亏损这样的状况。

Yeah, I'm going to go through this page because I've talked about all the different trades we have on, but it's just sort of a recap from our last quarter's outlook and kind of making money flat, flat, losing money.

这些是长期的投资。

These are longer term.

所以比特币做得很棒。

So Bitcoin nailed it.

所以差不多就是这样。

So that's kind of it.

而且任期正确，但理由不对。

And tenure right for the wrong reason.

所以不管怎样，我觉得这页的主要精神就是，如果我们对某个资产持悲观态度，我会直接说出来。

So anyway, I think the main spirit of this page is just if we're bearish in asset, I will, you know, I will say it.

而且对比特币也是这样，虽然你知道，长期来看，我非常非常看好它。

And and that was true for Bitcoin even though you know, long term, I'm very very bullish.

所以，我就差不多要结束了。

So, I just actually finish finish up.

感谢Christian的加入。

Thanks to Christian for joining.

在某些方面，我们超配了科技。

You know, in some, we are overweight technology.

这让很多人感到不舒服。

It makes people very uncomfortable.

但我觉得，我们认为这是一个大趋势。

But I just think it's we think it's a megatrend.

我们认为有很多事情在发生，就像我们之前讨论的，但这就是我们的股票定位。

We think it's a lot of stuff happening like we talked about, but that's our equity positioning.

我们最近低配了固定收益，原因你都知道，亚当，但我们不认为这是大危机的开始。

We are underweight fixed income recently for the big bearish reasons that you know of, Adam, but we don't think this was the beginning of a big crisis.

我们在第三季度看到的情况，更多是由于经济增长，我们认为这给投资组合的其他部分带来了压力，也提供了一点额外的价值，所以我们稍微减少了低配。

What we saw in Q3, it was more due to economic growth, and we think that's pressuring other parts of your portfolio and providing a little bit more value, and we've reduced our underweight just a little bit.

所以我不知道这对大家有没有帮助，但我想重新提一下实物资产。

So I don't know if that's helpful for people, but real assets, I just wanted to revisit.

我其实没有真正涉及那笔交易的不同方面。

I didn't really just different aspects of that trade.

我们在结构上超配实物资产，因为我们觉得这能让你在不同经济周期中的投资表现更平稳。

We are structurally overweight real assets because we think it smooths out your performance ride in your portfolio during different economic cycles.

另外，我认为存在一个长期趋势风险，就是美国

Plus, I think there's this megatrend risk of, U.

政府

S.

支出，这个风险迟早会显现出来。

Government spending, which will manifest itself at some point.

然后我们谈到了印度和比特币。

And then we talked about India and Bitcoin.

所以，如果没问题的话，我就停止分享了。

So, I'm going to stop sharing if that's all right.

好的。

That is.

在结束之前，关于高利率我有个问题想问你，就是我记得你在开头说过，你在结构上低配债券，但你不排除短期内债券价格会反弹，对吧？

I have one question for you about higher rates before we wrap up here, which is I think I heard you say at the beginning, you're structurally underweight, but you wouldn't rule out you know, a near term pop in bond prices.