Time To Buy Bonds? | Lance Roberts

所以再说吧，看看接下来会发生什么。

So again, we'll see what happens.

但这确实表明，市场迫使美联储加息，而实际上根本不应该加息。

But it does certainly suggest that the market pushed the Fed into hiking rates, and it really shouldn't have.

我们之前说过，在油价飙升时加息是个危险的游戏，因为你是在为未来制定货币政策，加息会加剧对消费者的负面影响，而消费者已经在承受高油价和家庭资产负债表上的压力。

We talked about before, hiking into an oil price spike is a dangerous game because, again, you're setting monetary policy for the future and you're hiking rates, you're increasing the negative impact on consumers which are already suffering from high oil prices and that input into the household balance sheet.

所以在这种环境下，经济破坏的速度会快得多。

So that creation of economic destruction happens much quicker in this environment.

如果油价突然大幅回落，或者伊朗问题得到解决之类的。

And if you all sudden get a big reversal in oil prices, we get a resolution to Iran or whatever it is.

那突然之间，你又得谈论美联储的信誉问题了，因为他们现在不得不降息来抵消通胀压力的下降，而PCE数据已经告诉你，至少目前，关税和油价对经济的通胀传导非常有限。

Now all of a sudden you've got to talk about Fed credibility again because now they're having to cut rates to offset the drop inflationary pressures when PCM was already telling you that there was very little inflation pushing through the economy from tariffs and oil prices, at least at this point.

好的，那我们来谈谈这个，因为这是我之前想问你的一个问题，就是问你，在我们看来，通胀到底在做什么？

Okay, so let's let's talk about that because that's one of the questions I had here for you, which was just to ask you, what's inflation really doing in our view here?

你和我，你知道，今年这一年，我觉得除了伊朗战争之外，我们预期通缩会是今年的主题，特别是因为住房方面的情况。

You and I, you know, over the course of this year, I think we're Iran war aside, expecting disinflation to be the theme of this year, particularly because of what's going on with shelter.

但其他地方，比如通胀预期之类的，也一直都很低迷。

But but also elsewhere, you know, looking at inflation expectations and whatnot have been very muted.

当然，今年通胀确实是个问题，因为伊朗战争导致油价高涨。

Now, of course, inflation's been a concern this year because of the high oil prices that have resulted from the war in Iran.

我有点不太想用“暂时性”这个词，但跟你和其他持类似观点的人聊过之后，我的感觉是，如果这场战争能结束——希望今年晚些时候或明年初能结束——根据你看到的情况，你预期未来更可能是继续去通胀，而不是通胀加剧。

And I hesitate to use the word transitory, but from talking to you and others who think similar to you, I get the impression that, hey, if and when this war ends and let's let's hope it ends at some point this year or early next year, your expectation given the way the land of what you're seeing is that things would more likely continue to disinflate going forward than inflate.

是这样吗？

Is that correct?

因为，今天的就业报告就是一个很好的指标。

Because, again, the employment report was a good indicator of that today.

今年全年就业一直都很疲软。

So we've had very weak employment all year long.

所以，我们之前，你知道，我们在节目里聊过这个。

So we had this, you know, this and if you remember, we had this conversation here on the show.

当时就业报告出来，数字是16.9万。

And when the employment report came out it was like 169,000.

我当时就说，嘿，得小心那个数字，因为那会儿有很多返校的因素，大学生回学校，教授回去上班，老师也回去上班，等等。

I was like, hey, be careful with that number because this was a lot of back to school, people going back to college, professors going back to work, teachers going back to work, etcetera.

而且当然，你得把夏天离开的那些人都招回来，让学校有人手，诸如此类的事情。

And of course, you've got to hire all the people back from the summer to come back to man schools and those type of things.

所以对那个数字要小心一点。

So just be careful with that number.

当然，今天的数据也证实了那确实有点异常，尽管后来被下修了。

And of course, today's number kind of confirmed that that was a bit of an anomaly, even though it was revised down.

但整体来看，我们这一整年都有一连串非常疲弱的就业报告。

But we've had a whole string of very weak employment reports overall.

所以这说明了两个问题。

And so which suggests that two things.

第一，我们现在看到的是所谓的“劳动力囤积”。

One, what we're seeing is what we call labor hoarding.

上一次出现劳动力囤积，其实是在2009年之后，2010年、2011年那会儿。

And the last time that we saw labor hoarding was really in kind of post two thousand and nine, twenty ten, twenty eleven.

我们当时正从金融危机中走出来，公司既不愿意裁员，也不愿意招人。

And we were coming out of the financial crisis and companies weren't willing to fire people and they weren't willing to hire people.

他们想的是，我手上有员工。

They were like, I've got employees.

我会拼命留住他们，因为我手上有好员工。

I'm going hold on to them for dear life because I've got good employees.

好员工很难找，但我也不会再招其他人了。

And finding good employees are hard to come by, but I'm not gonna hire anybody else.

我们在离职率数据中也能看到这一点。

And we're seeing that in the jolt rate.

我们看辞职和裁员这些数据。

We look at quits and layoffs, those type of things.

基本上没人招人，也没人裁人。

There's basically nobody hiring, nobody firing.

所以就业数据之所以持续疲软，不是因为别的，就是因为公司目前只是在囤积现有的劳动力。

So we're not seeing these employment numbers remain weak because companies are just hoarding what labor they have at the moment.

这当然会随着时间的推移产生通缩效应。

And that's certainly disinflationary over time.

如果经济中不能增加更多就业，那就会拖累消费者，因为如果人们找不到工作，就没法消费。

If we don't start getting more employment into the economy, that's gonna weigh on consumers because if people aren't getting a job, they can't spend.

与此同时，我们这周看到了零售销售报告，整体零售销售数字大幅上升，环比增长了0.9%。

And at the same time, seeing and we saw the retail sales report this week, big retail sales numbers at the headline were up 0.9%.

这主要是汽油价格上涨推动的，并且正在传导到经济中。

That's primarily gasoline prices and that's feeding through into the economy.

这正在削弱人们继续购买其他商品、产品和服务的能力，因为他们的收入很大一部分被消耗掉了。

That's eroding people's ability to continue to consume on other goods, products and services because so much of their income is getting eaten up.

所以，进入明年，经济环境面临显著恶化的风险。

So there's certainly risk to a much weaker economic environment as we go into next year.

不过，这可能会被整个资本支出问题所抵消。

Now that could be potentially offset by this whole CapEx spending issue.

而且，当我们看ISM数据时，事实上我今天早上还发布了一张相关图表。

And we still when you take a look at ISM, in fact, I posted a graph of this this morning.

你看这个ISM指数，按经济权重算的话，基本上是80%服务业和20%制造业。

You take a look at the ISM equally weighted sorry, economically weighted index, which is basically 80% services and 20% manufacturing.

这个指数显示增长了很多。

That's showing a lot of increase.

不过这和消费者没什么关系。

Now that has nothing to do with consumers.

这只是对企业的调查。

This is just surveys of businesses.

你的生意怎么样？

How is your business?

我的生意好得很。

My business is doing great.

我们正在蓬勃发展。

We're booming.

我们什么都在买。

We're buying all kinds of stuff.

我们收到了各种各样的新订单。

We've all kinds of new orders coming in.

但这些新订单可能来自其他公司，它们是为了建设数据中心而购买产品。

But those new orders could be from other companies buying products for build outs of data centers.

所以这并不一定意味着个人消费方面表现良好。

So that doesn't necessarily mean the personal consumption side is doing well.

但我们刚刚在最新的GDP数据修正中看到，个人消费被上调了。

But we just saw in the latest revision to GDP data, personal consumption was ratchet up.

所以消费者还在坚持。

So the consumer is hanging in there.

他们正在动用储蓄。

They are drawn.

但有趣的是，个人消费之所以能维持，是因为他们在动用

But the interesting situation is that the way that the personal consumption is holding up is they're drawing on their

储蓄。

savings.

对，不是储蓄。

Yeah, not savings.

我们的储蓄率大概是3.8%，不管具体多少，反正挺低的。

Our savings rate is like 3.8%, whatever it is, it's pretty low.

对，我就是这个意思。

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

他们不是存钱，而是在花钱。

Rather than saving, they're spending.

对，他们在花钱，但他们也在动用401k计划和投资账户里的钱，这些资产特别是过去五年积累起来的。

Yeah, they're spending, but they're drawing into four zero one ks plans and investment accounts and all these assets that have built up over the last five years in particular.

现在他们开始动用这些钱来满足消费需求。

They're now starting to draw into those to meet their spending requirements.

所以，我们说的其实是一回事。

And so just to be clear, we're saying the same thing.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

我误会你的意思了。

I misunderstood you.

不不不不。

No, no, no, no.

没关系。

That's okay.

好的。

Okay.

那么。

So.

好吧。

All right.

简单来说，我描述的是你认为可能发生的情况，对吧？也就是说，除非油价继续上涨或者有人大量买入石油，除非油价持续高位更长时间，否则你认为趋势更倾向于通胀放缓，对吗？

So in a nutshell, though, I described correctly what you think is likely to happen here, which is barring oil prices going higher or buying oil, barring oil prices remaining high for a lot longer, you think that the trend is really towards more towards disinflation?

我很好奇。

And I'm curious.

你觉得美联储下次行动时，利率是会再次加息还是降息？

What do you think the next act of the Fed when it does act next with the interest rate is likely to be another hike or a cut?

嗯，问题是要维持稳定很长时间，但当他们真正采取行动时，你觉得会是哪个方向？

Well, thing is hold steady for a long time, but when they actually take action, which which direction do you think I think it's likely to be?

所以下次会议是10月27日，我想大概就是那个时候。

So the next meeting is October 27, I think, right around there.

然后之后的那次会议会在12月。

And then the one after that will be in December.

我觉得如果他们维持利率不变，我也不会感到意外，

I think that it won't surprise me if they hold rates at

下次

the next

会议，因为他们刚刚加息了。

meeting simply because they did hike.

现在他们要看看这如何反映到经济中。

And now they're going to kind of see how that reflects through through the economy.

如果油价在下跌，他们很可能会按兵不动。

If oil prices are dropping, they're probably going to hold.

然后我们再看情况。

And we'll see what happens.

但就像我说的，美联储对油价其实没什么影响。

But as I said, the Fed doesn't really have any impact on on oil prices.

他们可以把利率加到天上去。

They can hike rates to the moon.

油价还是那样。

It's like Oil prices.

但有一点我想说清楚，就是咱们在聊通胀的时候。

But one thing I do want to make clear when you and I are talking about inflation.

我说的是价格的变化速度。

That I'm talking about the rate of change in prices.

我知道很多人会说，你去商店看看，这个多少钱，那个多少钱，情况就是这样。

And I know there's a lot of people like, well, if you go to the store, this is what this cost and this is what that cost and this is what's going on.

而且通货膨胀很严重，简直失控了。

And inflation is terrible and it's just out of hand.

这倒是真的。

And that's true.

你看，自从2020年我们向经济注入资金并关闭一切以来，物价上涨了大约29%，这推高了物价，然后当然，我们还在上面加征了关税，再加上高油价，这些都让物价居高不下。

And look, prices are up like 29% since 2020 when we sent money into the economy and shut down everything that lifted prices up, which and then, of course, we slapped tariffs on top of that and you have high oil prices, which all kept prices elevated.

但这不是我说的通货膨胀。

But that's not the inflation I'm talking about.

是的，消费者层面的物价确实很高，而且自2020年以来确实大幅上涨。

Yes, prices for the consumer side are definitely high and they are definitely have increased dramatically since 2020.

这一点没有争议。

No argument with that.

我们说的是，我和亚当具体在讨论的是物价的变化率。

What we're talking about is what Adam and I are talking about specifically is the rate of change in prices.

所以如果今天油价是每桶100美元，一年后还是每桶100美元，那通货膨胀就是零。

So if oil prices are at $100 a barrel today and they're $100 a barrel a year from now, inflation is zero.

我们说的就是这个。

That's all we're talking about.

市场关心的也就是这个。

And that's all the market cares about.

再说一次，当我说通胀的时候，我不是在说你个人的生活，你花了多少钱，你的房子值多少钱，你的车怎么样，这些我都不在说。

The market and again, so when I'm talking about inflation, I'm not talking about your personal life, what you're spending, what your house costs, what your car, I'm not talking about any of that.

我说的是市场关心什么。

What I'm talking about is what does the market care about?

而市场关心的是价格随时间的变化率，以及这对经济意味着什么。

And what the market cares about is the rate of change in prices over time and what does that mean for the economy.

当你开始看就业数据，开始看消费情况，开始看储蓄情况的时候，所有这些数据都表明，

And looking at that data when you start looking at employment, start looking at what's happening with spending, you start looking at what's happening with savings.

如果油价下跌，未来十二个月的通胀率会更低，而不是更高。

All of that suggests that if oil prices come down and the rate of inflation is going to be lower over the next twelve months rather than higher.

好的，太好了。

Okay, great.

所以这就是为什么我特意用了“通胀放缓”这个词，它不是说价格在下降。

And that's why I was taking care to use the word disinflation, which doesn't mean prices are coming down.

只是说价格涨得越来越慢。

It just means they are rising at a slower and slower pace.

没错。

That's correct.

好，那要聊的话题太多了。

Okay, so so much to talk about.

时间却这么少。

So little time.

当然，过去几个月的热点，跟通胀有关，或者说至少跟人们对通胀的看法有关，就是收益率走高。

So, of course, the story of the past couple of months, ties into inflation or at least people's perception of inflation, has been higher yields.

我们看到债券收益率一直在涨，而且还在继续涨。

So we've had higher bond yields that continue going higher.

我要替你说几句话了。

I'm going put some words in your mouth.

你可以随便反驳我。

Feel free to take them out.

但我想，Lance，你可能有点意外，十年期收益率这么快就涨到这么高。

But I can imagine, Lance, you're a little surprised that the ten year got as high as it did as quickly as it did.

我知道你们RIA的人一直认为债券价格会回升，收益率会下降。

I know you guys at RIA believe that bond prices, bond yields will come down.

我觉得这并没有真正改变你们的看法，但如果我猜错了，你告诉我。

I don't think anything has really changed your opinion on that, although if that's true, let me know.

不过，就我前面说的，你并不是唯一这么想的人。但现在这周我们突破了5.3%，这些收益率是不是比你最初预期的涨得更快更高？

But but but just to my claim there, it's not like you're alone on this, but I mean, now the fact that we hit 5.3 this week, have these yields gone higher faster than you initially thought they would?

不，其实没有。

No, not really.

因为，再说一次，有好几个因素在起作用。

Because, again, you've had several factors.

那么，收益率是怎么定价的呢？

So how do yields get priced?

所以这才是真正的问题。

So this is the real question.

其实我现在正在写一篇关于这个的文章，可能接下来一两周内会发出来。

In fact, I'm working on a article on this right now, which I'll probably post in the next week or two.

让我看看能不能马上给你找到这张图表。

Let me see if I can find this chart real fast for you.

在你找的时候，我稍微改一下我的问题。

And as you're looking for it, let me let me just amend my question to you slightly.

前几天我在X上发了一条。

So I put up on X the other day.

当十年期收益率达到5.3%的时候，我说，你知道吗，如果我在2026年初，1月1日，当时利率是，我记不清了，好像是4.2%左右。

When the tenure hit 5.3 and I said, you know what, if I told you at the beginning of twenty twenty six, January 1, when rates were, I can't remember, like the tenure, I think it was like 4.2.

如果我说，嘿，到9月底，十年期收益率会到5.3%。

If I said, hey, by the end of September, the tenure is going to be at 5.3%.

你会预料到在这种情况下股市会创历史新高吗？

Would you have expected that the stock market would be at all time highs under that scenario?

我觉得大多数人会说，哇，如果收益率涨得那么快，那不行，市场肯定会受罪的。

I think most people would have said, woah, if yields raise that high that quickly, no, the market's going be suffering.

总会有地方开始出问题。

Things are going to start breaking somewhere.

而且市场确实在受罪，也确实有东西在出问题。

And the market is suffering and things are breaking.

好吧。

All right.

那我们就来聊聊这个吧，因为你知道，如果你看看那些指数，它们还是接近历史高点的，到底是哪些指数呢？

Well, let's get into that then, because, you know, if you if you look and if you look at the indices, they're still near all time highs, which which indices.

嗯，标普500挺接近的。

Well, the S and P was pretty close.

我上次看的时候，

Last time I looked at it,

确实是的。

it is.

纳斯达克今天创了历史新高。

NASDAQ is at an all time high today.

标普500也正好在历史高点。

S and P is right at all time highs.

好，那你正好帮我说了我想说的。

Okay, so you're making my point for me.

我刚才

Now, I was

等等，

like, hold on.

我只是

I just

想快速跟你说一下。

want to say real quick for you.

顺便告诉你，你的搭档莱博维茨上周就这个问题讲得很好。

Just so you have this information, your partner, Leibowitz, did a great job last week of addressing this point.

他有一张很棒的图表，展示了标普500里不同板块的表现，结果一点也不意外。

He had a great chart where he put up where it was the performance of the different sectors in the S and P and no huge surprise.

但就是科技板块在撑起整个大局。

But it's tech is carrying the whole show.

如果你看看其他板块，它们的跌幅相当大。

And if you look at other sectors, they're down pretty substantially.

所以这很好地说明了正在发生的恶化情况。

So it was a good indication of showing the deterioration that's going on.

但是，你知道，这个行业是

But, you know, the industry is

一个重要的

an important

信号指标。

signaling metric.

而且正如你所说，现在可能正在发出虚假的安全信号，或者说虚假的繁荣信号。

And to your point, maybe sending a false signal of security right now or a false signal of prosperity.

对，这正是我的意思。

Yeah, that's exactly my point.

所以这基本上就是标普指数，对吧。

So this is just basically so this is the S and P right here, right.

现在正处在历史最高点。

Sitting right here at all time highs.

纳斯达克今天实际上也创了历史新高。

The NASDAQ actually is setting all time highs today.

但这很好。

But this is great.

所以这是市值加权指数。

So this is the market cap weighted index.

好，这就是那10家最大的公司，微软、谷歌、亚马逊等等。

Okay, so this is where the 10 largest companies, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etcetera.

所有的盈利都集中在那里。

That's where all the earnings is.

所以你说到利率上升。

And so you talk about higher rates.

这些公司都在2020年利率处于十年期国债收益率0.5%的时候进行了债务再融资。

All these companies refinance their debt back in 2020 when interest rates were at half a percent on the ten year treasury.

现在它们的利息覆盖率接近历史最高水平。

Their interest cost coverage is near record levels right now.

所以利率上升对这些公司根本没有影响。

So higher interest rates aren't impacting these companies at all.

这不会影响盈利，因为它们的偿债成本仍然非常非常低。

It's not impacting earnings because their debt servicing cost is still very, very low.

它们相对较低。

They're relatively low.

所以

So

一旦你走出这个范围，这就是等权重指数。

once you step out of this, so this is the equal weighted index.

这是RSP。

This is RSP.

这个指数剔除了那十大股票的权重。

So this strips out the weighting of those large 10 stocks.

你可以看到，就在利率开始飙升的时候，RSP发生了什么。

And you can see right where interest rates started to spike, what happened to RSP.

还记得今年早些时候，大家都在说，哦，你想离开科技股。

And remember, earlier this year, everybody was raving is like, oh, you want to be out of tech.

你想投资RSP，因为等权重指数跑赢了标普500。

You want to be an RSP because the equal weight index is outperforming the S and P.

所以那时候所有资金都涌向那里，但突然之间，这个交易就不那么顺利了。

And so that's where all the money was piling into all of a sudden that trade hasn't been working out so well.

现在重要的是，等权重指数已经极度超卖。

Now importantly, equal weight is extremely oversold.

我们稍后讨论技术面的时候会详细讲这个。

And we'll get into this when we get to talk about technical stuff here in a few minutes.

这是小盘股。

Here's small caps.

这是标普500，它们对利率最敏感。

So this is S and P 500, which are the most interest rate sensitive.

小盘公司，首先，40%是不盈利的，但它们没有太多额外收益和现金流来抵消更高的利率。

Small cap companies, first of all, 40% of them are non profitable, but they don't have a lot of excess earnings and cash flow to offset higher rates.

我的意思是，这直接影响到它们的利润。

I mean, that goes right to their bottom line.

这些股票正在因更高的利率而被重新定价。

Those stocks are getting repriced for higher rates.

这是中盘股。

Here's mid cap stocks.

这是标普400。

This is the S and P 400.

同样的图表。

Same chart.

今天它们都在反弹。

They're all getting a bounce today.

这是我们之前提到的国际市场。

Here's international we're talking about earlier.

情况一样。

Same story.

你的意思是除了那些超大规模科技公司，其他所有公司都感受到了压力，对吧？

You're saying everybody but the hyperscalers is feeling Yeah.

所以再说一次，这就是迈克给你看的。

So here's again, this is what Mike was showing you.

这是iShares科技指数，创了历史新高。

So here's the iShares Technology Index all time high.

我们来谈谈日用消费品。

Let's talk about Staples.

日用消费品反映了消费者的状况，能告诉你很多正在发生的事情。

So Staples is the consumer tells you a lot about what's going on.

接下来是房地产，很明显，我们在讨论房市，那里发生了什么。

Here's real estate, obviously, talking about the housing market, what's going on there.

公用事业指数，当然涉及能源价格等等，在经济中，被压得很惨。

Utilities index, that's of course energy pricing, etcetera, within the economy, getting absolutely crushed.

事实上，我们上周刚买了一些公用事业股票，因为这一块真的跌得太厉害了。

In fact, we just started buying some more utility stocks last week because again, this has just gotten so beat up here.

市场内部会出现轮动。

You're going to get a rotation within the markets.

这就是为什么我们的因子轮动模型从成长股转回价值股，因为市场这种分化，这种情况会逆转。

And this is why our factor rotation model has switched from growth back to value because of this dispersion in the market, this is going to reverse.

你可能会开始看到，这并不意味着科技股必须下跌。

And you're going to start to see potentially, that doesn't mean technology has to go down.

只是意味着市场的其他板块可能开始表现得比高成长板块更好。

It just means that other sectors of the market may start performing better than the high growth kind of sector of the market.

不过今天这种情况还没发生。

Now that's not happening today.

今天英伟达涨得很猛，AMD、亚马逊、特斯拉也都在涨，就是这类股票。

Nvidia is booming today, AMD is up, Amazon is up, Tesla is up, those types of things.

但我们开始看到，而且你从这张公用事业图表里也能看到，最近几天有一些资金开始流入这个板块。

But we are starting to see, and you can see in this chart of utilities, you are starting to see over the last few days some buying coming into this sector.

这可能是早期信号，我们即将触发买入信号，你可能会看到资金回流到市场的其他领域，从而缩小目前这种分化。

And that may be kind of an early indication and we're about to trigger a buy signal that you may start to see some money flows back into these other areas of the markets to reduce this dispersion we've got going on right now.

好的。

Okay.

那么……

So...

但更重要的是，利率正在影响市场。

But the bigger point is that interest rates are impacting the markets.

如果你看标普指数，你根本看不出来。

If you're looking at the S and P, you just don't see it.

是的。

Yes.

你知道，很多人就是看那些主要指数来判断市场走势的。

Which, you know, again, lot of the world just looks to those major indices to see how things are going.

这其实会给人一种假象，让人觉得市场比实际要好，就像你刚才给我们揭示的那样。

It sends sort of a false signal that things are better than they than they are, as you've just revealed for us here.

但我很好奇，这可能是两种情况——基本上你是在预期市场要出现轮动，我理解的是资金会从科技板块流向那些之前被打击的领域。我知道你也不能百分百确定，但你是不是……

But I'm curious, it could either be so you're basically expecting a rotation coming up here is what I'm taking from capital is going to go from marginal capital is going to go from tech into these other areas that have been beaten up and so I know you don't know with certainty, but are you...

你现在的默认预期是那些被低估的板块会开始复苏吗？

Is your default right now expecting that these beaten down sectors are gonna start recovering?

还是说，更可能是市场顶部开始走弱？

Or is it more that the top is gonna start weakening?

也就是说，接下来的整体趋势是向下还是向上？

Like is the is the net trajectory gonna be downwards or upwards coming out of this?

不，我觉得整体趋势是向上的。

No, I think it's upwards is the net trajectory.

所以这周末的牛熊报告会讨论第四季度的展望。

So this weekend's bull bear report is talking about the outlook for Q4.

所以我们回到这里来看。

So we've had let's go back to here.

让我回到我们的标普500图表。

Let me go back to our S and P chart.

我很高兴问了那个问题，因为你刚才在帮我说明，由于科技股撑住了指数，情况看起来比实际要好。

And I'm glad to ask that question because you were you were sort of helping me say that things look rosier than they are than they have been because of the tech keeping the indices up.

有人可能会解读为，既然现在太好了，那接下来就会向下调整。

Someone interpret that as a oh, well, then if things are too good now, then they're going to adjust downwards.

但看起来你并不是这么预期的。

But but it doesn't seem like that's what you're expecting.

不，不，完全不是。

No, no, not at all.

那我们就先回到技术分析的部分。

So so let's let's just go back into our technical work for a moment.

这是标普500。

So this is the S and P.

从八月开始，我们真的哪儿都没去。

We've gone absolutely nowhere for the last really since August.

市场……

The mark...

八月、九月，你知道的，市场就是横盘了两个月。

August, September, and, you know, the market just went sideways for two months.

把这里的这四天去掉。

Strip out this four days that you had right here.

对，然后它就一直平着。

Right and then it went flat forever.

是的，市场从五月起就没动过。

Yeah, the market has gone nowhere since May.

所以，纠正市场高估有两种方式。

So there's two ways to correct overvaluation in the markets.

要么回调，要么盘整，而我们显然正在经历标普的盘整。

Either you have a correction or you have a consolidation and we're definitely going through a consolidation on the S and P.

再说，你看其他那些板块，小盘股、中盘股、国际市场、新兴市场、公用事业、房地产，这些都被打压得很惨。

Again, you look at those other sectors, small caps, mid caps, international, emerging markets, utilities, real estate, those have been beaten to death.

所以它们现在都严重超卖了。

So they're extremely oversold at this point.

那现在我们说的是第四季度。

So now we're talking about quarter four.

接下来一周我们就要开始看财报季了。

We're about to start earnings in the next week.

所以很快就会有各种财报公布出来。

So we're going to start having earnings announcements come back.

股票回购也快要恢复了。

Stock buybacks are about to come back.

过去一个月它们一直处于静默期。

They've been in blackout for the last month.

所以我们现在就要迎来所有公司的回购潮了。

So we're about to get all the corporate buy now.

公司回购股票本身并不会拖累市场，只是他们暂时不买了而已。

Just because corporations are in buyback, that's not a drag on the markets because it's just they're not buying.

但现在他们即将成为市场的推动力。

But now they're about to be an additive to the markets.

你还记得我们2022年的那次对话吧。

Now you'll remember our conversation back in 2022.

我们经历了一次回调。

We've gone through a correction.

我们当时写了文章，说现在是买入市场的时候了，因为你在为年底的季节性强劲行情做准备。

We wrote the articles like now it's time to buy the market because you're setting up for that seasonally strong end of the year.

年底前有几个利好因素在向你靠近。

You've got a few things tailwind wise coming towards the end of the year.

如果中期选举出现僵局，那会是好事。

If we get gridlock in the midterm elections, that's gonna be good.

那对市场来说会是利好的，而这很可能是最可能的结果。

That's gonna be bullish for the markets, which is probably the most likely outcome.

众议院的民主党人拿下了众议院，共和党人控制了另一个。

House Democrats take the center to the house and Republicans control the other one.

所以就会出现僵局，什么政策都推不动。

So you get gridlock, no policy gets done.

华尔街就喜欢这样。

Wall Street loves that.

这会给市场带来提振。

That gives you a boost to the markets.

回购在提振市场。

You've got buybacks boosting the markets.

盈利又会非常强劲，这也会提振市场，而且市场里流动性很充足。

Earnings are gonna be very strong again, that's gonna boost the markets and you have a lot of liquidity in the markets.

所以有一大堆基本面因素在支撑，很可能接下来市场到年底会往上走。

So you've got a whole bunch of fundamental factors that are really setting up that probably the next move in the markets is going to be a move higher through year end.

而且就像你说的，标普可能确实会表现得不那么好。

And to your point, it could be that the S and P actually kind of underperforms.

它会涨，但涨幅不如小盘股、中盘股，以及市场上其他一些被严重打压的子板块，因为资金会去寻找这些机会，它们有可能比大盘指数本身涨得快得多。

It goes up, but it goes up less than small caps, mid caps, some of these other sub sectors of the markets that have been really beaten down as capital goes to look for that, there's a potential for those to move much faster than the broad market index itself.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

这正是我想听的那种关于你展望的细节。

That's exactly the kind of detail of your outlook that I was looking for.

所以

So

这就是这周末的新闻，我正在梳理这些。

and that's this weekend's news that I'm going through all that.

好的。

Okay.

如果我理解错了，请纠正我。

And correct me if I'm wrong.

我可能记错了。

I might be wrong.

我可能把财务顾问搞混了，但几周前你是不是稍微降低了一点风险？

I might be confusing financial advisors, but were you slightly derisking a little bit a few weeks ago and

我们在七月份确实降低了风险。

did we derisk back in July.

七月。

July.

好的，那你现在是不是还有一些闲置资金，正考虑投到你认为可能复苏的其他板块？

Okay, so are you do you still have some of that capital dry that you're now thinking of deploying into what you think could be a a recovery in these other sectors?

没有。

No.

我们已经……

We've...

我现在在我们的模型里是持币观望的。

I'm I'm holding right now in our model.

我们现在只有大约13%的现金。

We're only about 13% cash.

所以我们要做两件事。

And so we're gonna do two things.

我们快到年底了。

So we're coming into year end.

所以有几件事我们打算做。

So we've got a couple of things that we're going to do.

首先，收益率达到5%，这简直是天上掉馅饼。

First of all, with yields at 5%, this is a gift.

我们想抓住这个机会，因为这种收益率不会持续太久。

And we want to take advantage of that gift because you're not going to keep that for very long.

太好了。

Great.

这正是我接下来想聊的话题。

And this is the next topic I want to talk about.

太好了。

So great.

很高兴你提到了这一点。

I'm glad you're flagging So

我们要重新调整债券模型。

we're gonna rebalance our bond model.

所以我会在长期债券上承担一些损失。

So I'm gonna take some losses and some of our longer duration bonds.

我会做一些税务亏损卖出，然后基本上增加长期债券的权重，但用……我投资组合里有一个很长的三十年期限的部分，大约占5%。

I'm gonna do some tax loss selling and then basically increase the weight and long duration but use a so I have a really long thirty year duration piece in the portfolio it's about 5%.

我会在那部分上承担损失，然后增加久期。

I'm gonna take the loss in that and then increase duration.

哦，抱歉，是增加长期债券的权重，同时把久期缩短一点到二十年。

Oh sorry, increase the weighting of longer duration by shortening the duration a bit to twenty years.

所以我可能会从5%的三十年期限，增加到7%到8%的二十年期限。

So I'm probably gonna go from five percent thirty years to seven to eight percent twenty year duration.

然后我们会加一些五年期的债券，目前我们大部分债券的期限都在三到七年之间。

And then we're gonna add in some five year duration, which right now we have most of our durations between three and seven years.

所以我们会稍微增加五年期债券的配置，因为现在五年期债券的收益率是5%。

So we're gonna add a little bit to five year duration because five year bonds are paying 5% right now.

这样我可以提高五年期部分的权重，从而提升整个投资组合的收益率，然后我们也会重新平衡组合中很多短期债券。

So I can increase that weight in the five year bucket and bring up the overall yield of the portfolio then we'll rebalance a lot of the shorter stuff in the portfolio as well.

所以我们会调整一下投资组合的收益部分。

So we'll kind of rejigger the income side of the portfolio.

然后在股票方面，我们会做几笔亏损卖出，然后重新平衡。

And then on the equity side, we're going to do a couple of tax loss sales and then rebalance.

再次强调，就像我们之前讨论过的，我们已经减少了因子轮动模型的配置。

So again, like we talked about previously, we've reduced in our factor rotation model.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我忘了把图表拿下来。

I forgot to take the chart down.

在因子轮动模型中，我们减少了成长股，增加了价值股。

In the factor rotation model, we reduced the growth side and increased the value side.

所以我们要把同样的价值轮动应用到实际的60/40配置模型中。

So we're going to apply that same value rotation into the actual kind of sixtyforty allocation model.

我们会增加一些价值股，同时在这个投资组合中锁定部分利润。

We'll increase some of the value stocks and that portfolio takes some profits.

我们很多科技股最近表现很好，就把它们调回目标权重。

A lot of our tech stocks have done really well lately, just kind of reduce those back to target weight.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

很好。

Great.

我们下周就执行这个操作。

And we'll do that next week.

所以我们下周五有很多要聊的。

So we'll have a lot to talk about next Friday.

好的，太好了。

Okay, great.

我想说的是，各位观众，我们会继续每周在这个视频里，请Lance分享他公司的交易操作。

And I was just going to say, folks, we will continue, including in this video on a weekly basis, to ask Lance to share what trades his firm is making.

所以他们会实时做出这些调整。

So that is is they're making those changes in real time.

你们会持续得到最新消息。

You'll you'll be kept updated.

好的。

Alright.

那我们就进入正题吧。

So let's let's get to that that point.

Lance，你刚才提到了那一点，我之后就得收尾了。

You you mentioned there, Lance, and I gotta wrap things up after that.

所以这是我过去一周在这个频道上一直在聊的话题，就是。

So this has been something I've been talking about a lot over the past week on this channel, which is.

好的，今年债券收益率已经涨了很多，你知道，它们更有可能从这里继续上涨，还是可能见顶然后开始回落？

Okay, bond yields have have risen a lot this year, you know, are they more likely to continue up from here or are they likely to peak out and start coming down?

但从绝对值和实际值来看，现在，你知道，你得到的，债券现在看起来比很多股票更有吸引力，因为它们提供了更丰厚的收益率，更丰厚的实际收益率。

But on an absolute basis and on a real basis right now, you know, you're getting, you know, bonds are looking a lot more relatively attractive right now than a lot of equities because they're giving you richer yields, richer real yields.

而且你可以持有它们，风险比股票小得多。

And you can sit in them with a lot less risk than you can in equities.

所以，我想我可能跟你聊过这个，但我知道我跟迈克尔聊过，就是，你会不会开始看到信贷市场的资金从股票市场撤出，因为你可以锁定这些收益率并获得不错的回报。

And so and I think I might have talked with you about this, but I know I talked with Michael about it is, you know, are you going to start seeing a pull from the credit markets of capital from the equity market because you can start locking in these yields and get paid well.

所以我想我们就从这里开始吧。

And so I guess let's start there.

我还有几个后续问题。

I have a few follow on questions.

但你说这是一份礼物，这让我觉得你认为这些不会持续太久。

But you said it's a gift, which leads me to believe that you don't think these are going to last for all that long.

所以你得趁现在还能拿到的时候，赶紧锁定这些更高的实际收益率。

So you want to try to lock in these higher real yields while you can get them.

然后如果你判断对了，接下来一两年债券收益率开始下降，那你不仅拿到了更高的实际收益率，还能享受到债券价格本身带来的资本增值。

And then if you're correct in that bond yields start coming down over the next year or two, not only are you getting those higher real yields, but you're also getting the underlying capital appreciation of the bond prices themselves.

没错。

That's right.

所以，我明白了。

And so so I've got it.

就像我说的，我现在正在写一篇文章。

Like I said, I'm writing an article right now.

我觉得人们在看市场的时候，最容易犯两个错误。

I think there's two things that people really make a mistake on when looking at the markets.

而且，现在有很多人对债券市场特别悲观。

And again, there's so many people out there doom and gloom on the bond market.

觉得一切都要完蛋了，什么都会违约。

It's all going to hell in a handbasket and everything's going to default.

我们都会死的。

We're all going to die.

但再说一次，从投资者的角度来看，市场会给你机会，而且从历史上看，你得看看债券长期的表现，还得明白为什么要在投资组合里持有债券。

But again, from an investor standpoint, the market gives you opportunities and historically you have to look at how bonds perform over time and you have to understand why do you own bonds in a portfolio.

这个我们之前聊过。

And we've talked about this before.

但如果我想在投资组合里创造回报率，为什么不想持有债券呢？

But if I'm trying to create a rate of return in a portfolio, why would I not want to own bonds?

来，我给你看个图表。

Here, let me show you a graphic.

这就是那个图表。

So this is a graphic.

这是我正在写的文章的一个预览，解释为什么你应该用不同的眼光看待债券。

This is a preview of the article I'm writing right now explaining why you should look at bonds differently.

再说一次，我们现在看债券，一切都只看价格。

Again, we look at bonds today and we just base everything on price.

就像，哦，你会把债券抛掉。

It's like, oh, you'll drop bonds down.

债券很糟糕。

Bonds are terrible.

别碰债券。

Be out of bonds.

亚当，你买房子，大概一个半月前签的合同吧？

Adam, you bought your house, what, about a month and a half ago now when you signed your contract?

是的。

Yes.

严格来说，我签了合同。

Technically, I signed the contract.

实际上要到明年夏天他们交房，我才真正买下房子。

I don't actually buy the house until they deliver it by next summer.

但没错。

But yes.

但你已经谈好了价格。

But you've agreed on a price.

我们已经谈好了价格。

We've agreed on a price.

好的。

Okay.

你那个价格，现在买你的房子已经亏了，因为自从你锁定那个价格以来，利率已经上涨了。

That price of you have now overpaid for your house because interest rates have gone up since you locked in that price.

所以你的房子现在的价值比你买的那天要低。

So the value of your house is now less today than it was the day that you bought it.

所以你已经在这房子上亏钱了。

So you're already losing money on your house.

我跟你说过这肯定会发生，因为我是最厉害的。

I told you this exactly was going to happen because I was the greatest.

所以

So

市场对此的看法是，亚当，你应该卖掉你的房子，因为你在亏钱。

the market's view of this is, Adam, you should sell your house because you're losing money on it.

但你既把房子看作金融资产，也把它看作居住的地方。

But you look at your house as a financial asset and also a place you're going to live.

你不会很快卖掉那套房子的。

You're not gonna sell that house anytime soon.

你会持有那套房子十年、二十年。

You're gonna hold that house for ten years, twenty years.

普通人平均持有房子七年，对吧。

Average person holds a house for seven years right.

但你可能会住得更久。

So but you may live there longer.

所以我的观点是，这全是心理作用，对吧？

So my point about that is it's all psychology right?

我们忘了当初买债券的原因，那就是为了保本和收益，到期按面值兑付。

We forget about the reason that we buy bonds to start with, which is I buy a bond for capital preservation and income and matures at face value.

如果我今天以5%的收益率买入债券，我会得到5%，而且我能精确到每一分钱地计算出债券到期时我的回报是多少。

If I buy a bond at a 5% yield today, I'm gonna get 5% and I can calculate to the actual penny of what my return will be when that bond matures.

如果利率升到10%，我的债券价值会随着利率上升而下跌，因为这只是调整——如果我想今天卖出债券，价格需要是多少才能让两只不同债券的收益率相等？

If interest rates go to 10%, the value of my bond is gonna fall as interest rates go up because all it's doing is adjusting if I wanted to sell my bond today, what does the price have to be to make yields equivalent between two different bonds?

每天发生的也就是这些。

That's all that happens on a day to day basis.

你亏钱了吗？

Are you losing money?

没有，这只是今天的价值。

No, this is just the value today.

仅此而已。

That's all it is.

你的国债并没有亏任何钱。

You haven't lost any money in your treasury bond.

只是价值在上下波动而已。

It's just the value moving up and down.

现在，如果我想创造回报率，这就回到这张图表了。

Now, if I'm trying to create a rate of return, so this goes back to this chart right here.

当美联储压低收益率的时候，那是在2020年，以及2020年之前，回到2009年，当时美联储在压制利率，这就是所谓的TINA市场。

When yields were being held down by the Federal Reserve and this is back in 2020 and previous to 2020 going back to 2009 when the Fed was suppressing interest rates, this was the Tina market.

没有其他选择。

There is no alternative.

我不能投资债券，也不能持有现金，因为货币市场利率是零。

I couldn't be in bonds, I couldn't be in cash because money markets paid zero interest.

我只能买股票。

I had to be in stocks.

所以我必须靠股票的表现来让我的钱随时间增长。

So I had to have stock performance to create my money to grow over time.

而利息收入非常非常低。

And interest income was very, very low.

在那段时期，利息收入只占我回报的29%。

Interest income only covered 29% of my return during that period.

现在，同样的收入，同样的债券持仓比例，能覆盖我58%的收入需求。

Today, that same income, that same portion of bond holdings covers 58% of my income needs.

所以如果我想构建一个6%回报率的投资组合，光靠持有债券就能覆盖超过一半。

So if I'm trying to build a portfolio of a 6% return, I can cover more than half of that just by owning bonds.

剩下的部分来自股票的股息收益，现在我可以很容易地构建一个大约2%股息率的投资组合，稍微花点功夫可能达到3%。

The rest of it comes from the dividend yields on stocks, which right now I can build a portfolio of about a 2% dividend yield very easily, maybe 3% if I do a little bit of work.

然后我就不需要它们了。

And then I don't need them.

我不必承担大量的股票风险。

I don't have to take on a lot of equity risk.

如果市场下跌10%，我不必为了达到回报目标而承受10%的损失。

If the market goes down by 10%, I don't have to suffer a 10% decline to try to meet my return goals.

我可以把50%的钱放在股票上，市场下跌10%。

I can have 50% of my money in equities, the market falls 10%.

这里给你算笔账。

And here's the math for you.

我有一半的钱在股票里，市场跌了10%，我的投资组合会跌5%。

I have 50% of my money in equities and the market falls 10%, I'm gonna be down 5% of my portfolio.

好，但我股票能拿到2%的股息。

Okay, but I get a 2% yield for my equity.

所以那只有1%，因为只有一半在股票里，我拿到1%。

So that's a 1% since only half is in equities, I get 1% on that.

所以现在跌了4%。

So now I'm down 4%.

我投资组合的另一半能产生5%的回报。

I have another half of my portfolio generating 5% returns.

那又是2.5%。

That's another two and a half.

我现在跌了。

I'm now down.

市场跌了10。

The market's down 10.

我的投资组合下跌了2.5%。

My portfolio is down two and a half.

在市场低迷时，我能承受这个跌幅。

I can survive that in a market downturn.

这就是我们常常忽略的债券和投资组合的价值。

And that's what we forget about the value of bonds and portfolios.

我们太纠结于每天的股价波动，以至于忘了我们持有债券的真正原因。

We get so tied up in the day to day price fluctuations that we forget the real reasons that we own bonds.

这里有一个重要的图表给你看。

Here's an important graphic for you.

让我停止共享屏幕。

Let me stop this share.

我得马上切换一下窗口。

I have to change windows here real quick.

现在我们聊到最近我们经常讨论的一个话题，就是由于AI股票等这些因素，市场估值的问题。

So now we're talking so one of your common topics as of late that you and I've talked about is about valuations on the markets because of the AI stocks and all these type of things.

这说得很有道理。

And that's a great point.

估值确实偏高。

Valuations are elevated.

我们知道，从长远来看，如果估值非常高，未来十年股票的回报率大概会在零到正百分之二和负百分之二之间。

We know that on a go forward basis that with valuations very high, that returns on stocks over the next ten years are probably going to be somewhere between zero, say positive two and negative 2% somewhere in there.

这就是估值告诉我们的。

That's what valuations tell us.

我现在可以买5%收益率的国债，而股票的收益率只有2%。

I can buy treasury bonds today at 5% versus a 2% yield in equities.

那为什么我不在接下来的十年里这么做呢？

Why wouldn't I do that on the next ten year basis?

为什么我现在不买十年期国债，锁定5%的收益，而股票的未来回报预期只有2%甚至更低？

Why would I not buy a ten year bond today, I can lock in 5% where my forward return expectations on stocks are 2% or less?

我们都在谈论估值，谈论泡沫，但从来没有把这些联系到投资组合管理上，联系到我想要达到的目标上，因为我们太关注债券当前的价格，而这和实际情况完全无关。

So we all talk about valuations, we all talk about bubbles, but we don't ever relate that back to what that means to portfolio management and what I'm trying to do because we're so focused on the price of the bond today, which has absolutely nothing to do with the reality.

这只是债券相对于当前利率的重新估值。

It's just the revaluation of the bond relative to today's interest rates.

只要我不在市场上一惊一乍地抛售，我的国债就没有亏损。

I haven't lost any money in my Treasury bond as long as I don't knee jerk sell it in the market.

所以我采访了斯蒂芬·巴伐利亚，他创建了“收入工厂”框架，这主要是为收入型投资者设计的。

And so I interviewed Stephen Bavaria, who has created the Income Factory framework, which is basically for income investors.

他在里面有一大堆不同的信贷和类似信贷的产品。

And he has a whole bunch of different credit and credit like products he has in there.

他基本上说，你可以。

And he basically says, you can.

你可以建立一个非常有吸引力的投资组合，产生大量收入。

You can build a really attractive portfolio that generates a lot of income.

是的，你得愿意不去每天纠结于投资组合的市场价值，因为它可能会波动。

And, yeah, you got to be you got to be willing to not obsess about the market value of your portfolio on a day to day basis because it can fluctuate.

尤其是当收益率上升的时候。

And especially when when yields are rising.

对，你会看到价格下跌，但你持有它并不是为了它的市值。

Yeah, you're going to you're going to see prices depressed, but but you're owning it not for what it's worth.

你持有它是因为它每个月带来的收入。

You're owning for what it's kicking off every month in terms of income.

只要你的收入流稳定且增长，那才是你真正关心的。

And as long as your income stream is robust and growing, that's really all you care about.

这就像福特建工厂一样，是个很好的类比。

It makes a really good analogy of like when when Ford built a factory.

他们不会太在意那个工厂建筑随时间变化的市场价值。

They don't really obsess about what the market value of that factory building is over time.

他们关心的是这个工厂生产了多少辆车。

What they obsess over is how many cars is this thing produced.

这和你说的非常相似。

And it's very much what you're talking about here.

当然，你知道，收入投资的好处是，如果你持有到期，那么中途价格怎么变就不那么重要了。

And of course, you know, the benefit of of of income investing is if you hold to maturity, you know, then it doesn't matter necessarily what happens to the price along the way.

你会拿回你应得的钱。

You're going to be made whole.

当然，如果利率涨到百分之十几并且一直维持在那里，你知道，那就有机会成本，因为你没法参与那些更高的利率。

Now, of course, if interest rates just go to into the teens and hang out there, you know, there's there's there's opportunity cost of not participating in those higher ones.

但话说回来，你还好，

But still, you're well,

这就是为什么当你构建投资组合时，我觉得很多人犯的另一个错误是，他们去买二十年期的国债。

And this is but this is why when you build a port, this is another mistake I think a lot of people make is they go out and they buy twenty year treasuries.

对，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

你知道，我就打算全买二十年期国债，然后收益率上升，他们就在亏钱。

You know, I'm just gonna go buy everything in twenty year treasuries and then the yield goes up and they're losing.

他们看到投资组合的价值下跌。

They see the value of the portfolio down.

如果你五年后需要用到这笔钱，就别买二十年期的国债。

Don't buy a twenty year treasury if you need your money in five years.

不要买

Don't buy

或者用国债阶梯来配置。

a Or treasury ladder up.

这就是为什么你实际上真的，我觉得这是个很好的观点。

And this is why you actually really, I think is a great point.

如果你不熟悉债券投资，大多数人都不熟悉，除了像我要买二十年期债券或者我要买债券基金。

If you're not familiar in investing in bonds, which most people aren't, except like I'm going to buy a twenty year bond or I'm going to buy a bond fund.

如果你不熟悉兰斯在这里讲的这些细节，找懂行的人，利用他们的专业知识。

If you're not familiar with how to the nuances of what Lance is talking about here, find somebody who does this and leverage their expertise.

让我把我们的意思说清楚。

And let me be really clear about what you and I are talking about.

我们说的不是ETF，不是债券ETF，也不是债券基金。

We are not talking about ETFs and we're not bond ETFs and we're not talking about bond funds.

这些工具是交易利率的。

Instruments are a trade on interest rates.

你只是在赌利率的走向。

You are simply trading the direction of interest rates.

所以当你买那些的时候，就跟买股票一样。

So when you buy those, that is the same thing as buying a stock.

你只是在赌利率会下降，因为那些工具永远不会按面值到期。

You're just betting on you're betting on the fact that interest rates are going to fall because those those instruments never mature at face value.

它们只是内部滚动债券。

They just roll the bonds inside.

一个债券到期了，就滚动到下一个。

One bond matures, they roll it by the next one.

所以基金就是这样，你完全是在赌利率的变动。

That's how So the funds you're solely betting on the move of interest rates.

所以如果你要买债券基金或债券ETF，你最好对利率的方向判断准确。

So if you're gonna buy a bond fund or a bond ETF, you better be right about the direction of rates.

如果你买的是真正的债券，也就是我们说的那种，我买的是真正的五年期国债、七年期国债、三年期国债、二十年期国债，那你就不用担心价格了。

If you're buying an actual bond, which is what we're talking about, I'm buying an actual five year treasury, an actual seven year treasury, an actual three year treasury, an actual twenty year treasury, then you don't worry about the price.

你担心的是我的久期。

You're worried about my duration.

我要持有多久？

How long am I going to hold?

在我需要拿回这笔钱用于退休或其他支出之前，我需要持有多久？

How long do I need it to hold it before I need my money back for retirement or whatever spending need?

比如我要买房，或者其他什么用途。

I'm going buy a house, whatever it is.

我需要五年。

I need five years.

你买一个五年期债券，到期时。

You buy a five year bond at maturity.

不管利率怎么变动，涨到天上还是跌到地板，你都能拿回100%的本金，无论如何。

Regardless of what interest rates do up, down to the moon, to the floor, you get 100% of your money back regardless.

这是需要记住的重要一点。

That's the important thing to remember.

这就像买定期存单一样。

It's just like it's the same thing as buying a CD.

我之前提到过你的房子。

I was talking about your house earlier.

你不会担心房价，因为利率上涨了，因为你要住在那里。

You don't worry about the price of your house because interest rates have gone up because you're gonna live there.

你不会买定期存单，对吧。

You don't buy a CD, right.

当你买定期存单时，你不会担心它的价格，因为定期存单每天在你的账单上都是以同样的价格显示的。

When you buy a CD, you don't worry about the price CD because the CD is always priced every day on your statement at the same price.

定期存单就是这样运作的。

That's the way CD works.

但如果你要在市场上卖掉它，那是一个5%的定期存单，而现在定期存单利率是6%，你在公开市场上卖的话就得打折。

But if you went to sell that in the market, it's a 5% CD and CD rates are now six, you're gonna take a discount selling that into the open marketplace.

但你只是看不到这种波动而已。

But you just don't see that fluctuation.

亚当，你还记得金融危机之后，有一阵子大家特别想推动货币市场基金，因为当时有个大型货币市场基金爆雷了，净值跌破了一美元。

Adam, you remember after the financial crisis, there was a whole momentary push to try to get money market funds after the big money market fund blew up and the buck.

当时有个临时性的运动，想让货币市场基金每天重新定价利率。

There was a temporary movement to try to get money market funds to reprice daily the interest rates.

但这个想法马上就被否决了，因为那样的话，人们会到处买卖货币基金，会破坏货币市场基金的平衡。

That got kiboshed immediately because people would be buying and selling money funds all over the place and would destroy the money market fund balance.

所以你看不到那些利率变化，因为这些变化被压制在这些工具里面，直到到期才报告。

So you don't see those rate changes because those rate changes are suppressed within those instruments and they're just not reported until maturity.

但债券也是同样的道理。

But that's the same thing with bonds.

当你持有债券时，你在对账单上看到的只是根据当前利率进行的重新估值。

All you're seeing on your statement when you own a bond is just the revaluation based on interest rates today.

我持有一个5%利率的债券，而今天的利率是6%。

I've got a 5% bond, 6% is the interest rate today.

如果我想今天卖掉它，我的债券价格必须下降，这样收益率才能持平。

My bond price has to go down to make if I wanted to sell it today, yields have to be equivalent.

这就是它告诉你的全部信息。

That's all that's telling you.

它不告诉你任何关于安全性的信息，也不告诉你关于到期日的信息。

It tells you nothing about the safety, tells you nothing about maturity.

买债券时你唯一需要担心的不是票面利率，因为买的时候会有溢价和折价。

And the only thing that you need to worry about when you buy a bond, don't worry about the coupon because there's premiums and discounts when you buy a bond.

票面利率对你来说毫无意义。

The coupon means nothing to you.

你唯一需要关心的是到期收益率。

Only thing you want to know about is yield to maturity.

我今天买入。

I buy it today.

我的到期收益率是X。

My yield to maturity is X.

我能接受这个到期收益率吗？

Am I okay with that yield to maturity?