Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan

而且，2011年我们搞了第二轮量化宽松，债券市场就崩了。

And and they we had q e two in 2011, the bond market tanked.

2012年和2013年我们搞了第三轮量化宽松，债券市场又崩了。

We had q e three in two thousand twelve and thirteen, the bond market tanks.

疫情之后我们搞了第四轮量化宽松，债券市场还是崩了。

We had q e four after COVID, the bond market tanks.

当他们停止量化宽松的时候，债券市场触底了，债券价格开始横盘，直到我们又开始第五轮量化宽松，债券市场就一直在跌。

When when they stopped doing q we we we hit a low in in in the bond market and and bond prices started going sideways until we started QE five again and the bond market has been tanking.

所以在这段量化宽松期间，债券表现一直不好。

So bonds have been doing poorly during this period of QE.

这次量化宽松相比之前几次算是比较温和的，但对债券来说并不利好。

It's been a very gentle QE around this time compared to some other ones, but it's not been bullish for bonds.

所以我现在看空债券，原因有很多，稍后我可以再详细说说。

And so I'm bearish on bonds right now for a lot of reasons, and I can talk about that a little bit more later.

但如果我们结束第五轮量化宽松，甚至转向量化紧缩，那对债券市场来说，除了看空因素之外，还会是另一个利空因素。

But this if we do end QE five and transition to even quantitative tightening, that would be a other than bearish factor for for the bond market.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

再确认一下，如果我们真的实施第四次量化紧缩，那你会转而看涨债券，对吧？

And just to be super clear, if we were to resort to QT4, that would turn you into a bond bull, correct?

不一定，因为我觉得还有其他更重要的因素，但那样做确实能很大程度上缓解那些看跌因素。

Not necessarily, because there's other factors that I think are more important, but that could mitigate those other bearish factors quite a bit.

为什么会出现这种情况，这真的很反直觉。

Why this works this way, this is very counterintuitive.

按理说不应该是这样的。

It shouldn't work this way.

但我们有大量数据表明，事实就是这样。

But we've got a lot of data that says it does work this way.

所以到了某个时候，你就别再纠结理论上该怎么运行，而是要认清现实是怎么运行的。

So at some point, you gotta stop arguing with how it should work and realize how it does work.

对。

It.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

行。

All right.

那这里还有什么别的？

So what else is in the grab bag here?

我看到有石油。

I see oil.

石油。

Oil.

石油和利率。

Oil and interest rates.

它们现在紧密相连，形影不离。

They are joint at the hip right now.

这也不是什么新鲜事。

And this is not news.

我现在不是在爆料什么大新闻。

I'm not breaking news right now.

但值得在图表上看一看，才能意识到影响有多大。

But it's worth seeing it on a chart to to realize how much of an effect it is.

十年期国债收益率一直在飙升。

The ten years been zooming up.

原油价格也一直在飙升。

Crude oil prices have been zooming up.

这是截至周二（15号）的数据。

This is data current through Tuesday, the fifteenth.

所以可能没有反映周三原油价格小幅下跌的情况。

So it may not reflect anything that might have happened on Wednesday with crude oil prices down a little bit.

但你可以看到，这两者之间确实存在这种关联。

But you can see that there is this relationship.

不过有意思的是，原油价格还没有涨到三月份那个高点之上，但利率已经超过了。

What's interesting though is crude oil prices are not yet up to a higher high than they were in in in at the peak in March, but interest rates are.

我对此的解释是，当时原油价格达到那个峰值时，那简直是荒谬的。

I explain this by saying, well, when we were making this peak in crude oil prices, that was ridiculous.

没人觉得那会持续下去，都觉得会回落。

Nobody thought that was gonna last, and it's all gonna come back down.

但现在，人们对这轮新的飙升比之前那轮要重视得多。

But now, people are taking this renewed spike up much more seriously than they took that initial one.

他们觉得这次的影响要大得多。

And they're thinking that this matters a whole lot more.

对我来说，这能起到预测作用，因为黄金价格大约领先利率走势二十个月。

How this comes into play for me is in a predictive way is that gold prices give us about a twenty month leading indication for what interest rates are gonna do.

所以上面的图是黄金价格，我在图表中把这条线向前平移了二十个半月，这样就能看出，黄金的所有波动都会在大约二十个半月后反映在债券收益率上。

So this the upper plot is gold prices, and I've shifted that plot forward by twenty and a half months in the chart to reveal that all of the dance steps in gold get echoed in bond yields about twenty and a half months later.

不总是正好二十个半月。

It's not always exactly twenty and a half months.

有时候线条会倾斜来对齐舞步，但我们预计利率会有一段横盘期。

Sometimes the lines are slanted to get the alignment of the dance steps, But we have this sideways period that interest rates are supposed to be in.

然后到今年年底，利率会大幅上升，以匹配二十个月前黄金价格的急剧上涨。

And then toward the end of this year, we get the really steep advance in interest rates to match the steep advance in gold prices twenty months before.

还记得去年年底到今年年初黄金波动有多剧烈的人，你基本上是说，未来十四个月，我们预计国债收益率也会出现类似的剧烈上涨吗？

Folks that remember how violently gold moved at the end of last year and into the beginning of this year, you're basically saying we should expect a violent run up like that in treasury yields in the next fourteen months?

是的。

Yes.

现在，我不是说，从黄金走势图中我们目前对应的这个点来看，黄金后来翻倍了。

And now what I am not saying what I am not saying from this equivalent point where we are right now in gold's plot, gold went on to double.

我不是说这意味着利率也会在数值上翻倍。

I am not saying that that means interest rates are going to numerically double.

不是那样运作的。

That it doesn't work that way.

但走势的方向和转折的时间点是对得上的。

But the direction of travel and the timing of the turns does match up.

所以长期来看利率涨多少我并不太在意。

And so I don't really care how far interest rates rise in the long term.

我只想知道它们会往哪个方向走，因为那决定了我该怎么布局。

I just wanna know what direction they're gonna go because that tells me how to position myself.

好的。

Okay.

接下来我想问你一个宏观方面的问题。

I'm gonna ask you a macro question here.

不过首先，这个国债收益率指数，是三十年期的那种吗？

First off though, this treasury yield index, is that the thirty year?

那是最近一期发行的三十年期国债的到期收益率。

That's the current yield to maturity on the most recently issued series of thirty year treasury bonds.

好的。

Okay.

明白了。

Got it.

好的。

All right.

你刚才说重要的是走势方向。

So you've said it's the direction of travel.

不是幅度大小。

It's not the magnitude.

不过咱们先随便猜一下。

But let's just guesstimate here for a moment.

假设三十年期收益率突破6%，跟着黄金的走势走。

Let's say the thirty year cracks 6% along along following gold's path here.

十年期的话，我不知道，大概5.5%左右吧。

And the ten year is, I don't know, five and a half percent or something like that.

我知道你更擅长看图表，但你有没有感觉，经济能不能承受这么高的债券收益率？

I I know you're much more of a charts guy, but do you have a sense of whether you think the economy can handle bond yields that high?

首先，我不质疑这些数字。

First of all, I don't dispute those numbers.

从当前情况来看，这些数字听起来挺合理的。

Those sound reasonable to get there from here.

其次，想买房的人会最难受，因为长期利率对房贷的影响远大于对企业扩张、资本支出这些方面。

And second of all, anybody wanting to buy a house is gonna be in the most misery based on those because that's where the long term rates affect things way more than in business and in corporate expansion and in CapEx and those kinds of things.

企业那些更跟短期利率挂钩。

Those are much more tied to shorter term interest rates.

房贷市场里，十年期和三十年期利率才是关键。

It's in the mortgage market, the ten year and the thirty year matter.

所以最痛苦的就是那里。

And so that's where you're gonna see the most pain.

很抱歉，我要给所有房产中介和首次购房的年轻人带来坏消息。

And I'm sorry to be the bearer of bed tidings to all the real estate agents out there and all the new young first time home buyers.

我买第一套房的时候，利率是13%。

I bought my first house at 13%.

所以我理解你的感受。

So I know what you're going through.

而且这不会好受的。

And so it's not gonna be fun.

好吧，汤姆，我帮你个忙，我告诉你收益率什么时候会达到最高点，那就是明年夏天。

Well, Tom, I'm gonna do you a favor here, and I'm gonna tell you exactly when the max pay moment's gonna be for yields, which is gonna be next summer.

也就是2027年夏天。

So summer of twenty twenty seven.

我之所以这么确定，是因为你可能听说了，我刚成为首次购房者，在我漫长的55年人生里头一回。

And I know that with absolute certainty because I, you may have heard, have just become a first time homeowner, first time in my long fifty five year life.

而且房子还在建。

And, the house is being built.

所以我们实际上要到房子交付时才开始还房贷，那是在2027年夏天。

And so we don't actually assume the mortgage until the house is handed over to us, which is going to be summer of twenty twenty seven.

所以你现在用的是建筑贷款。

So you're in a construction loan.

那就会是最大的痛苦时刻。

Is gonna be the max pain moment.

这说得通。

That that makes sense.

确实如此。

It it really does.

但这个同样的二十个月领先指标，不仅适用于利率，也适用于黄金价格和油价。

But this same twenty month leading indication for for interest rates, it also works in gold prices, with oil prices.

这是我之前用过的同一个时间偏移方法。

This is the same time offset practice that I was doing before.

这次用的是十九点八个月的偏移，因为对油价来说，历史上这个效果更好。

This one uses a nineteen point eight month offset just because with oil prices, that's worked better historically.

这是一张很长的图表。

And this is a really long chart.

这张图一直追溯到2014年，可以看到黄金的每一个舞步，在原油价格里都有同样的舞步，而且我们现在看到的这波上涨，正好是黄金价格从这个小幅盘整中走出来的时间点。

This goes back all the way to 2014 to see that all the dance steps you get in gold, you get those same dance steps in crude oil prices, and that this up move that we're seeing now is right on schedule coming out of this little consolidation in gold prices.

所以，按照黄金的走势，油价还有很大的上涨空间。

So oil prices, according to gold, still have a lot further to go.

当然，可能会有像新冠疫情这样的事件让曲线稍微偏离，或者俄乌战争让油价提前上涨，或者伊朗战争让涨幅提前了一些，但后来我们又把这些涨幅吐回去了。

Now you can have things like COVID come along that bend the curve a little bit, or the Russia Ukraine war came along and bent it higher, or the Iran war got gains a little bit pulled forward, but then we gave them back.

所以，总会有这样的事件来干扰，但总体趋势，抱歉这么说，如果你是房车车主的话，总体趋势是油价会继续上涨。

So you're gonna have events like that that will disrupt it, but the general trend, sorry to say, if you're a Winnebago owner, the general trend is gonna be toward higher crude oil prices.

我们得习惯这一点。

We can get used to that.

这确实很糟糕。

It sucks.

这很痛苦，但我们以前也经历过油价上涨。

It's awful, but we've gotten used to higher oil prices before.

我们只能学着开更小的车，或者少开车，或者不点外卖，或者改用杂货配送，因为这些都消耗昂贵的柴油。

We'll just have to learn to drive smaller cars or drive less or not get DoorDash deliveries or bundle up with with grocery deliveries because those are all using expensive diesel fuel.

这不会好受，但这就是黄金价格传递出来的信息。

It won't be fun, but that's what the message is from gold prices.

好的。

Alright.

好吧，你今天在好多问题上都挺悲观的。

Well, you're just a ray of sunshine today on a number of issues.

所以，你知道，如果你不喜欢油价现在的走势，你就是在说，抱歉，各位。

So, you know, if if you're not enjoying what's happening with oil prices, you're saying, sorry, folks.

在可预见的未来，这种打击还会继续。

For the foreseeable future, the beatings are gonna continue.

让我问问你关于黄金的事，黄金是很多看这个视频的人实实在在投资了不少的资产。

Let let me ask you this about gold, and gold is an asset that a lot of people who watch this video are are pretty invested in, literally.

他们很多人都是黄金持有者。

A lot of them are gold owners.

要让油价回落，也许让市场根据你之前展示的一些相关性进行修正，这是否意味着黄金必须先回调，还是黄金可以横盘整理？

For oil to retreat back, and perhaps for the market to correct according to some of the previous correlations you showed, does that mean that gold has to correct in advance first, or can gold go sideways?

嗯，油价和利率会跟随黄金二十个月前的走势。

Well, oil prices and interest rates are gonna follow the path of what gold was doing twenty months before.

所以黄金今天的表现，会影响油价，但那是二十个月以后的事了。

So whatever gold does today, that'll matter for oil prices, but not until twenty months from now.

这个关系里有一点反馈，就是油价今天的表现也会影响黄金。

There is a little bit of, feedback in that in that relationship where what oil does matters to gold today.

确实有这种短期反馈，但长期反馈比短期反馈重要得多。

There's a little bit of that feedback, but it's the longer term feedback is is much more important than the short term feedback.

所以，你可能还记得，我预计黄金会在2026年1月见顶。

And and so I'm expecting gold, as you may recall, topped in January 2026.

从那时往前数二十个月，大概就是2028年8月，那应该是利率和油价的峰值。

So if you count forward twenty months from that, you get about August 2028 should be the the peak for interest rates and peak for oil prices.

油价。

Oil prices.

好的。

Okay.

那你打算在2028年8月办房贷吗？

The when you were gonna get your mortgage on your on your house done is August 2028?

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

希望不会那么久，亚当。

Hopefully, it won't take that long, Adam.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

是2027年。

It's 2027.

所以至少我可以在那个峰值之后重新贷款。

So at least I can refinance, you know, after that peak.

好的。

Okay.

所以我问题的核心，我觉得你差不多已经回答了，但就是，对。

And so the spirit of my question, which I think you kinda answered, but is, yeah.

所以我们知道黄金有一个相当明显的下跌，现在正在接下来的二十个月里逐步显现，然后反映在石油、高收益债券和利率上。

So we know we have a pretty sharp decline in gold that's now working its way through the following twenty months to then get reflected in oil and in high yield in interest rates.

当我看像石油这样的东西，历史上平均价格在每桶60到70美元之间，我的问题是，这更多是方向性的变化，而不是幅度的问题吗？

When I look at something like oil that historically hangs out in the 60% to 70% dollar a barrel average, my question is, is this more of a direction of change rather than a magnitude?

换句话说，比如说未来十年，石油能不能波动但平均价格仍然保持在每桶60到70美元，而黄金可能继续上涨到每盎司5000、6000、7000美元？

In other words, over the next decade, let's say, can oil kind of, you know, be volatile but still deliver an average price of 60 to 70 a barrel while gold may still continue increasing up to 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 an ounce?

也许吧。

Perhaps.

但我有一个疑问是，黄金价格的大幅上涨，并不是由普通投资者——那些黄金市场的常客——推动的，而是由中央银行决定需要介入，尤其是中国。

And and the one question I have is that that big rise in gold prices was done, not so much by normal investors who are the gold market, but by central banks deciding that they needed to weigh in on on especially China.

那么这是否削弱了这个信号的意义？

And so does that diminish the message?

这个问题让我夜不能寐，我希望我能有一个完美的答案。

That's a that's a question that keeps me up at night, and I wish I had a perfect answer.

我能说的是，石油市场的参与者并不预期油价会长期走高。

What I can say is that the players who are in the oil market aren't expecting higher oil prices for longer.

我之所以知道这一点，是因为我看了交易员持仓报告的数据。

And one way I know that is I look at the commitment of traders report data.

这是商业交易者在原油期货中的净头寸。

This is the net position of the commercial traders in in crude oil futures.

而目前，他们处于净空头状态，就像自2009年以来一直持续净空头一样。

And, right now, they are net short just like they have been continuously net short since 2009.

关键是要理解什么是商业交易者，以及他们的角色。

The important thing to understand is who who who and what is a commercial?

期货中的商业交易者是指在其交易业务中生产或使用相关商品的人。

A commercial trader in futures is one who produces or who uses the subject commodity in their trader business.

所以很多商业交易者，尤其是原油领域的，都是石油生产商。

So a lot of the commercials, especially in crude oil, are oil producers.

比如有人拥有油井，他想锁定未来几个月的生产价格，所以他会利用期货市场来实现这一点。

Some guy owns a oil well, and he wants to lock in the pricing on his, production, going months out, so he will use the futures market to do that.

当你看到他们的净空头头寸达到一个非常高的水平时，那就说明价格已经到了顶部。

And when you see them get up to a really high net short position, that tells you you're at a topping condition for prices.

当他们的净空头头寸处于低位时，那就说明价格已经接近底部了。

When they get to a low net short position, you're at a bottoming condition.

他们其实是在说，不。

They're saying, no.

我不想在这个价格上锁定，但我想在那个价格上锁定。

I I don't wanna lock in at this price, but I wanna lock in this price.

这就是这些数字在告诉我们的。

And that that's what the numbers are saying.

在伊朗战争引发最初的油价飙升时，他们的净空头头寸达到了一个非常高的水平。

When we had the the the initial spike on the Iran war, they got up to a really high net short position.

他们当时是在说，我想锁定这些价格。

They were saying, I wanna lock in these prices.

当然，之后价格回落了，他们也相应减少了头寸，回到了一个比较低的净空头水平。

And, of course, prices backed off, and they backed off on their positioning, got back to a nice low net short position.

现在的情况是，油价又回到了100美元以上，这些人有点谨慎了。

What's happening now is we're seeing oil prices back above a 100, and these guys are a little bit more timid.

他们还不打算做空。

They don't wanna get short yet.

他们不想锁定现在的价格。

They don't wanna lock in these prices.

之前他们愿意在那个价位锁定，净空头头寸很高。

They were willing to lock in those prices back here and had a high net short position.

现在他们不愿意了，这说明这些专家知道些什么。

Now they don't wanna do it, which says these experts know something.

他们在想，我要先观望，等价格更高了再开始锁定。

They are thinking, I'm gonna sit on my hands and wait for even higher prices before I start locking in.

所以这又是一个确认，油价还有上涨空间。

So that that's another confirmation that oil prices have higher to go.

那么，汤姆，给我一个数字，未来几个月油价可能涨到多少，你不会感到意外？

So, Tom, give me a number that wouldn't surprise you to where oil could go in the next couple months.

我不太喜欢用价格水平来思考，因为还有其他因素会起作用。

I hate thinking in in in in price level terms because there's other factors that come along and and do that.

不过，如果我们要开始换单位，我也不会感到意外。因为如果柴油价格因为加油泵不能超过9.99美元而难以定到合适的价格，那我们只需要把加油泵改成按夸脱或升来计价，问题就解决了。

I I wouldn't be surprised though if we start changing the units because if if we're if we're having trouble charging the right price for for diesel fuel because the pumps won't go higher than $9.99, well, then we just need to change the pumps to reflect quartz or liters, and then that'll solve that problem.

所以我给你的任何数字都可能因为单位调整而变化。

So any number I give you may be subject to change due to reriggering of the units.

好的。

Okay.

我不想让你为难，我只是想了解一下，不是预测，就是感觉一下，这里还有多少上涨空间。

And I I don't wanna put you on the spot here, but I was just trying to get a sense, not as a prediction, but just as a sense of like, given how much room to run, there still may be here.

你看，显然，如果你看看黄金的走势图，你知道，黄金20个半月以来的走势表明，可能还有很大的上涨空间。

I mean, obviously, if you look at the gold chart, you know, it looks like there's an awful lot more to run given what what gold's twenty and a half month example has shown us.

你知道，我们说的是每桶涨10美元还是20美元？

You know, are we talking, you know, 10 or $20 a barrel?

还是说可能再涨100美元一桶？

Are we talking a $100 a barrel that could be tacked on?

我只是想了解一下

I'm just trying to get that

大概的感觉。

general sense.

还有更长的路要走，这可能和价格距离上的“更多空间”不是一回事。

There's longer to run, which may or may not be the same thing as more to run-in terms of price distance.

所以

So

如果我们要完全复制黄金的走势，上升趋势会持续到2028年。

the uptrend is due to last until 2028 to as if if we're gonna perfectly echo gold prices.

但即使在上升趋势中，也会有超涨和回调，超涨和回调。

But you and even with an uptrend, you overshoot and pull back and overshoot and pull back.

所以，嗯。

And so Mhmm.

如果我想给你一个数字和一个日期，那简直是徒劳无功。

If I try to give you a a number and a and a date, it it it would be a fool's errand to try to do that.

好的。

Okay.

没事没事。

No no worries.

不过我从你说的这些里面，不管是油价还是利率，感觉押注“更高更久”是对的。

But but what I am taking away from what you're saying, both for oil prices and for interest rates is it looks like higher for longer is the bet to make.

可惜确实是这样。

Sadly, yes.

我这么说，是因为我自己开的是F150。

And I say that as a f one fifty driver.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

我们换个话题吧。

Moving on a little bit.

这就是我最后要说的了。

That that that's the last of what I got.

如果大家想了解更多关于这些图表的信息，它们经常出现在我们的新闻简报和每日版块里，可以访问我们的网站。

If if anybody wants to find out more about these charts, which feature regularly in our newsletter and our daily edition, you can go to our website.

你可以免费注册，每周收到一张图表和重点分析，也可以付费获取更详细的内容。

You can sign up for free for a weekly chart and focus, or you can pay to get the good stuff.

不过我可以再回顾一下你提到的任何图表。

But I can go back over any of these charts that you have.

亚当，我们还有一点时间，还有其他问题吗？

Any other questions, Adam, if we got a little bit of time left?

有的。

We do.

各位，强烈推荐你们去看看MC振荡器。

And folks, highly recommend you check out MC Oscillator.

我就不用多费口舌了。

I don't need to give you the song and dance.

你刚刚看到了汤姆经常给他的观众带来的很多干货。

You've just seen a lot of the goods that Tom delivers regularly to his audience there.

而且我很喜欢你能预判到我要问的一些问题。

And I love that you anticipate a number of questions I'm going to ask.

汤姆，你让我的工作变得非常轻松。

Tom, you make my job really easy.

所以，谢谢你。

So thank you for that.

关于这一点，我只想说，汤姆在这个视频里还没提到，但我们过去已经深入讨论过不止一次了——这不仅仅是汤姆一个人，而是他的家族基本上已经从事这种分析有两代人的时间了。

And the only thing I'll say about this that Tom hasn't said yet this video, but we've gotten to it in more depth than once in the past, is this is something that not just Tom, but his family has been involved in this type of analysis for basically two full careers at this point in time.

所以，这是一种经过几十年打磨的技术方法。

So this is a technical approach that has been honed over many decades.

所以，当你在寻找一种真正经得起时间考验的东西时，我强烈推荐你去看看汤姆的作品。

So when you're looking for something that's really stood the test of time well, I can't give enough recommendations to check out Tom's work here.

很高兴你提到这一点。

I'm glad you mentioned that.

而且我还想提一下，我父亲谢尔曼·麦克莱伦已经92岁了，还在开车，每天和我一起工作，为通讯稿做贡献，而且他很享受这个过程，因为这是他一生都想做的事情。

And don't wanna mention that my father, Sherman McClellan, is 92 years old, still driving, still working with me every day, contributing to the newsletter, and enjoying it because this is what he's wanted to do all his life.

他做过其他工作，有过其他职业，但他真正想做的是股市分析。

He did other things and other careers, but he really wanna do stock market analysis.

他和我的母亲在1969年发明了麦克莱伦振荡指标，那时候还没有电脑。

He's he and my mom developed the McClellan oscillator back in 1969 with no computers.

他们所有的计算都是在账本上完成的。

They did all their computations on ledgers.

我还记得，大概在那之后三四年，我父亲才有了他的第一台计算器，一台用四节C号电池的电子计算器，那在当时已经很棒了。

And I'm I still remember it was it was about three or four years after that, my dad got his first calculator, electronic calculator that ran on four c cell batteries, which was great.

他能做加减乘除，这让把所有数字整理成表格并画在坐标纸上的过程轻松了很多。

And he he could add, subtract, multiply, and divide, and that made the process of tabulating all the numbers and plotting them on graph paper a whole lot easier.

所以我们已经走了很长的路，但我父亲仍然对分析股市充满热情，仍然在做很棒的事情，而且我还能从他那里学到一些他多年来积累的小窍门。

So we've come a long way, but my dad is still turned on by analyzing the stock market, still doing great things, and still I get the benefit of learning from him, little tidbits that he's picked up over the years.

他时不时会尝试一些他注意到但我忽略的模式，所以在这方面我非常幸运。

He'll he'll try it out every once in a while, patterns that he sees that I missed, and so I'm very privileged in that in that regard.

真是太了不起了。

That is just amazing.

那么，请代我向您父亲转达Thoughtful Money观众的热烈掌声、感谢和问候。

Well, please give your dad, a huge, kudos and thanks and hi from the Thoughtful Money audience.

还有您母亲，关于那个用四节C电池供电的计算器的故事，真是太神奇了。

And your mother, that story about the calculator that got powered by 4C batteries, which is amazing.

要知道，现在的计算器用的都是那种特别小的纽扣电池。

Mean, they're powered now by these just teeny tiny little disk shaped batteries.

不过，您母亲确实非常能干，她基本上每天都要手工计算，然后根据您父亲的工作绘制图表。

But I mean, your mother was very accomplished, but she basically kind of daily did the hand calculations and then chart creations based off your father's work.

这就是商业时段新闻报道的内容。

And then that was what the news report showed in the business hour.

对吧？

Correct?

确实如此。

That's that's true.

我妈妈是数学专业的，所以她心算特别厉害。

My mother was a math major, and so she was a wiz at doing calculations just in her head.

她一下子就能算出来，让计算变得简单多了。

She could just do it and make the computations easier.

这其实是我爸爸的乐趣所在，但需要他们俩一起才能完成，因为我爸爸是搞商业和经济学的。

And this was really my dad's joy, but it took both of them to pull it off because my dad was the the business and an econ guy.

我妈妈是数学天才。

My mom was the math whiz.

如果没有这两种才能的结合，再加上一对愿意一起努力的夫妻，1969年没有电脑的情况下根本做不到。

And and without those two talents combined and a couple willing to work on it, you couldn't have done this in 1969 without computers.

现在容易多了，你打开图表服务，比如stockcharts.com，三秒钟就能拿到，我们真是被宠坏了。

Now it's easy, and you get chart server you can pull up stockcharts.com and get it handed to you in three seconds that we we are spoiled.

他们那时候想看的话，只能靠铅笔、账本和坐标纸来画。

They had to do it all on pencils and ledgers and graph paper if they wanted to see it.

所以

So

那真是太了不起了。

That that's amazing.

不过他们那一代人，你知道，那些登月级别的计算也都是他们做出来的。

But they're the generation that, you know, all the moonshot calculations came from as well.

所以到现在还能靠这些，而且其中一位参与者，你父亲，92岁了还在积极参与业务，这真是太了不起了。

So that's just amazing to still be leveraging that and to still have one of the participants be active in the business with your dad here at 92.

汤姆，我很好奇。

Tom, I'm just curious.

你知道，有没有下一代麦克莱兰家族的人准备接班呢？

You know, is is there a next generation McClellands coming up to pass the torch to here?

我有两个孩子，还有一个孙子。

I have two kids and and one grandchild.

我的两个孩子都在其他职业领域做得很好。

Both my kids are doing great in other types of careers.

所以我不知道谁会接过接力棒，但我有成千上万的订阅者，在推特上还有更多人看到我的工作。

So I don't know who, is gonna pick up the baton, but I have had thousands of subscribers and even more than that on Twitter, people who see my work.

所以，这项工作会以其他方式由一代又一代的人继续下去。

So the work will go on in other ways by successive generations of people.

所以，知道我所注意到的和所建立的东西能被人们接受和喜欢，这让我感到欣慰。

And so that's kind of gratifying to know that something I noticed and something that I built could could get picked up and be liked by people.

所以，这挺有意思的。

And so that's kinda fun.

嗯，这太棒了。

Well, that's amazing.

听着，汤姆，希望你还能像你父亲一样，再干四十年。

And look, Tom, hopefully, you've still got, you know, forty years left in you just like your dad.

但是，如果你到了某个时候——我知道你有一群订阅者，他们是你最热情的追随者——但如果你到了需要公开招募接班人的时候，你想要一个把毕生热情都投入到这个角色中的人，你知道，告诉我们，我们会在Thoughtful Money上宣布，但希望那是很多很多年以后的事了。

But if you ever get to a point where I know you have your audience of of subscribers who, you know, are your most passionate followers, but if you ever get to the point for an open casting call where you want somebody whose life passion would be stepping into that role, you know, let us know and we'll announce it here on Thoughtful Money, but hopefully that's not for many decades from now.

我会考虑一下的。

I'll think about that one.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

嗯，在我们最后这几分钟里，让我回到之前提的那个问题。

Well, look, in our last couple of minutes here, let me get back to that question I teased earlier.

我理解你为什么现在是个预期性的看涨者。

So I understand the reasons why you are an anticipatory bull here.

在短期内，你在寻找未来一两周的市场信号，这些信号可能告诉你筑底过程已经结束，接下来十二个月就是大干一场的时候了。

In the very short term, you're looking for the market signals over the next week or two that may tell you that this bottoming process is over and that it's kind of game on for the next twelve months.

看涨的部分我明白。

I get the bullish part.

但为什么这么极度看涨呢？

Why bullish as all get out?

因为那些作为看涨论据反方的负面因素开始逐渐消失。

Because the the negatives that are counterarguments to the bullish argument start falling by the wayside.

你之前展示的季节性背离，振荡指标显示它几乎已经走完了，诸如此类。

Seasonality divergence that you were showing us earlier, the oscillator shows it's almost played out, that type of thing.

高收益债券是这论点中的一个刺。

The the high yield bond, is the one thorn in in the in the argument.

那里仍然存在疲软。

Those there's still weakness there.

这个问题可能会得到解决，然后你就没有这个反对理由了。

That could get resolved, and then you then you stop having that argument.

季节性因素目前疲软，还会持续大约一周半，最多也就这样了。

Seasonality is weak right now for another for another, week and a half or at most.

那之后就会过去，我们转向看涨的季节性。

That goes by the wayside, and we transition to bullish seasonality.

在涨跌家数方面，我们已经有了强劲的市场广度。

We already have strong breadth in the advanced decline numbers.

联邦政府征收的税收占GDP的比例很低。

We have low taxation in terms of percent of GDP that the federal government is taking.

这是看涨的。

That's bullish.

我们还有总统任期第三年的利好效应。

We have the the bullish third year effect.

美联储目前还没有太离谱。

We have the Fed not getting too stupid yet.

我们确实面临石油和债券方面的问题。

We we do have problems from oil and from bonds.

这些确实是负面因素，但总统周期中的第三年效应是股市的超级看涨时期。

Those are those are negative, but the third year effect in the presidential cycle is is a super bullish time to be in the in the stock market.

当你有某种总是有效的规律时，真的很难反驳它。

When you have something that always works, it's really hard to argue about that, argue against it.

所以如果你认为这次会不一样，那你就是在跟大量历史作对，认为总统任期的第三年会是糟糕的时期。

And so you if you think that, no, it's gonna be different this time, well, you're you're betting against a lot of history with in thinking that the third year of a presidential year, a term in office is gonna be a bad time.

我在想你的长发公主图表。

I'm thinking about your Rapunzel chart.

实际上只有很少的年份是负面的。

There were very few years that were actually negative.

你知道，自从第二十修正案改变了政治日历以来，只有1939年第二次世界大战那一次是例外。

It it it's, you know, it's 1939 in in World War two is is since the twentieth amendment changed the political calendar, that's the only time.

所以，除非我们真的陷入那种局面——看起来我们正在中东和波斯湾地区试图制造这种局面，那里有很多暗流涌动，但希望理智的人能阻止我们让整个世界爆炸。

And so it's unless we're gonna have a condition like that, which seems like we're trying to have a condition like that in the the whole Persian Gulf and the whole Middle East, There's a there's a lot of there's a lot stewing, but, hopefully, smarter heads will keep us from getting into the whole world blowing up.

如果真的发生那种情况，我们会花更多的钱，而赤字支出是看涨因素。

And and if if that does happen, then we'll be spending even more money, which and deficit spending is a bullish factor.

如果国会真的决定控制开支，实现预算平衡，那将是一个巨大的看跌因素。

If the if Congress ever decides to rein in its spending and have a balanced budget, that would be a big bearish factor.

我看短期内不会发生。

I don't see that happening anytime soon.

确实需要发生。

It needs to happen.

我希望它发生，但我觉得不会。

I wish it would happen, but I don't see it happening.

看跌主要是因为这会抽走流动性吗？

And bearish mostly because it would be removing liquidity?

对，确实是这样。

It would yeah.

那会是把用来推高股价的钱抽走。

It would it would be taking money out that is doing things to lift stock prices.

你知道，用信用卡消费，派对当然开得爽。

You know, spending on the credit card makes for a great party.

但等到要还钱的时候，就没那么好了。

That's when you have to pay it back that's not so good.

而国会一直在干这种事。

And that's what Congress keeps doing.

嗯，我今天刚好听到，现在有越来越多的普通美国人开始用“先买后付”的方式支付日常开销。

Well, I was just listening today about the tremendous number of regular Americans that are now starting to put more and more of their everyday purchases on buy now, pay later.

所以也许政府还有一招，就是干脆不发国债了。

So maybe the government still has one more phase of forgetting about issuing treasury bills.

他们直接搞个“先买后付”计划。

They just put it on a buy now, pay later plan.

对，这就是我之前说的保证金债务狂欢的一部分，你知道，它会一直增加，直到达到一个临界点。

Well, and that's part of the margin debt party that I was talking about, which you know, keeps increasing until it reaches a breaking point.

但那个临界点要到2028年才会到来。

But that breaking point is not due until 2028.

所以，我们同时面临的是，2028年是股市和保证金债务七年周期的显现时间。

And so we have we have simultaneously, we have 2028 is when the seven year cycle for the stock market and for margin debt shows up.

2028年也是原油价格和利率预计达到顶峰的年份。

We have 2028 as as when crude oil prices and interest rates are due to top out.

那将会非常有趣。

It's gonna be very interesting.

而且，我替2028年当选的总统感到遗憾，因为你在上任的第一年，也就是2029年，就会遭遇保证金债务崩溃带来的负面影响。

And it's I hate to be whoever gets elected president in 2028 because you're gonna be suffering from the downside of the margin debt collapse in in your first year in office in 2029.

对那位先生或女士来说，那可真够倒霉的，而且这还不是他们的错。

That's gonna be bummer for whoever that guy is or whoever that gal is, and it won't be their fault.

这只是他们将要面对的市场的周期性规律。

It'll just be this market cycles that they're going up against.

好的。

Okay.

非常有意思。

Super interesting.

汤姆，非常感谢你来做客。

Well, Tom, thank you so much for coming on here.

我已经计划好按常规频率再次邀请你上这个频道，但每次我都会问你同样的问题。

I've already earmarked to get you on again in our regular cadence of having you appear in this channel, but let me let me ask you as I do every time as well.

听起来，如果图表预测准确的话，你对近期会发生什么有相当清晰的把握。

It sounds like, you know, you've got a pretty, feel like you feel like you have a pretty solid sense of what's gonna happen in the near term if your charts prove out to be right.

但如果发生任何你认为会影响这些相关性，并可能以某种黑天鹅方式改变它们的事情，对吧？

But if anything happens that you think impacts those correlations and might change them in some sort of black swanish way, right?

也许是战争，也许是其他事情。

Maybe it's the war, maybe it's something else.

你随时可以回来，告诉这里的观众，当然，前提是你先告诉你的付费订阅者。

You've got an open invitation to come back on here and tell this audience, obviously, after you've told you're you're paying subscribers first.

收到。

Roger that.

我很乐意这么做。

I'd be happy to do that.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢，汤姆。

Thanks so much, Tom.

再次感谢，讲得太精彩了。

Again, fantastic delivery.

你总是全力以赴。

You always leave it on the playing field.

我真的很感激，期待很快再请你来。

I really appreciate that and look forward to having you back on again soon.

祝你新家顺利。我想给你的建议，是我结婚时我叔叔给我的。

Good luck with the new house, And the the advice I would give you is advice I got from my uncle when I was getting married.

我说，你知道吗，叔叔，你已经结婚二十八年了，而且你看起来还挺幸福的。

I said, you know, you've been married twenty eight years, uncle, and you and you seem happy with it.

你的秘诀是什么？

How what's your secret?

他说，嗯，我和我妻子结婚的时候，我们在一件事上达成了一致，那就是她来处理小决定，而她会让我来处理大决定。

And he said, well, when my wife and I got married, we agreed, on one thing, that she would handle the small decisions and that she would turn to me to handle the big decisions.

他说，这样一直挺顺利的。

And and he says, and that's worked out pretty well.

然后我就问他，那谁来决定什么是大决定呢？

And, and and so I asked him, well, who decides what is a big decision?

他说，是她来决定。

And he said, well, she does.

我又问，那大决定有什么例子吗？

And I said, well, what's an example of a big decision?

他说，等我们遇到的时候我会告诉你的。

He says, I'll let you know when we have one.

所以，要相信你的妻子。

So trust trust your wife.

她比你更清楚你想要什么样的家，如果你说“好的，亲爱的”，结果会更好。

She's gonna know what you want in your house better than you're gonna want it, and it'll turn out better if you say, yes, dear.

那我们就这么办。

Let's do

就这么定了。

it that way.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我非常感激。

I very much appreciate that.

而且，为了听众们，我会的。

And I will, just for the audience's sake.

到目前为止，我基本上也是这么做的。

I have largely followed that path so far.

家里有一两个地方我跟她说了，嘿，你看，这些地方我确实有很强的意见。

There have been one or two parts of the house where I've said, hey, look, this is where I really have strong opinions.

基本上就是我的录音室，你知道，就是我们要用来给我录节目的那个办公室。

And basically, like, my recording studio, you know, the office that we're going to use for me to record the studio.

但其他地方，我基本上都听她的，我跟她说，你看，你会比我更在意这些，而且可能比我更知道怎么利用这些空间。

But everything else, I've just basically deferred to her and said, look, you're going care much more about this and probably know how much know how to use the space much better than I.

所以我在这里就是告诉你我们能负担什么，不能负担什么。

So I'm just here to tell you what we can afford and what we can't.

除此之外，你就告诉我们该怎么做就行了。

And other than that, you just tell us what we're doing.

而且她可能会挑一些搭配得好的颜色。

And she'll probably pick colors that go well together.

这个我完全不行。

I can't do that to save my life.

我能看到颜色，但如果你让我搭配墙纸和地毯，我真的做不到。

I can see colors, but if you want me to match wallpaper and a carpet, I can't do that.

所以我老婆负责所有颜色方面的决定。

So my wife my wife is in charge of all color decisions.

我负责蜘蛛和灯泡，这样分工挺好的。

I'm in charge of spiders and light bulbs, and it works

确实不错。

out well.

说实话，现在这也差不多是我的职责范围了。

And to be honest, that's that's pretty much my purview now too.

我得说，这些新房子，有些房间挺高的。

I will say with these new homes, they some of the rooms, they're pretty tall.

换灯泡这事儿就变得更有挑战性了。

And the light bulb thing has become a lot more existential.

现在换这些灯泡，你得爬上很高的梯子才行。

You get to really get up there on a tall ladder to replace some of these light bulbs now.

不像我们父母那会儿那么容易了。

It's not as easy as it was back in our parents' day.

希望你能买到那种能用很久的，至少标签上是这么说的。

Hopefully, you get the kind that lasts forever, at least according to the label.

对，希望如此。

Yeah, hopefully.

希望我老婆不会算这笔账，意识到人寿保险的赔付金额，然后就想在旁边把梯子踢倒。

Hopefully, my wife doesn't do the math and realizes what the life insurance payout might be and just want to be there to kick the ladder out from under me.

所以走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

不过非常感谢你，汤姆。

But thanks so much, Tom.

还有，真的很期待很快能请你来。

And again, really look forward to having you on soon.

这是我的荣幸，亚当。

It's a pleasure, Adam.

好的。

Alright.

汤姆，那真是太棒了。

Tom, that was great.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

再好不过了。

Couldn't have asked for any better.

好的。

Alright.

好。

Good.

而且我们正好赶上了时间。

And we hit the time mark.

那我们就让你去忙你的事，我在这儿跟新港的兄弟们聊完，然后就去直播。

So we'll let you get out to do your stuff, and then I'll bang out here with the guys in New Harbour, and then I'll go on to the livestream.

不过再说一次，这个明天就会播出去，汤姆。

But again, this is gonna go out tomorrow, Tom.

所以等发布的时候我会把链接发给你。

So I'll send the link when it does.

太好了。

Perfect.

好的。

All right.

汤姆，约翰，在汤姆挂断之前，你们想不想夸夸他有多聪明？

Tom, John, wanna tell Tom how smart he was before, he hops off?

嘿，汤姆。

Hey there, Tom.

是的，谢谢你。

Yeah, thank you.

汤姆表现得非常好。

Tom was great.

我们一直都很喜欢你的图表。

We always enjoy your charts.

我们学术训练上都是工程师。

We're engineers by academic training.

所以对我们来说，数据算是我们的强项。

So we, data's data's kinda a, sweet spot for us.

我们很乐意看到数据，也很喜欢深入研究。

We we we'd love to see it and love to dive into it.

我是在西点军校学的航空航天工程，工程师的思维方式确实不一样。

I I was, aerospace engineering at West Point, and engineers definitely different think differently.

是的。

Yes.

有时候这是好事，有时候也是坏事。

Sometimes sometimes it's a blessing and sometimes it's a curse.

嗯，我通常是这样解释的。

Well, and I I I usually explain it.

嗯，你知道吗？

I well, you know what?

乐观主义者、悲观主义者，半杯水满、半杯水空，这说的是乐观和悲观的人。

The optimist, pessimist glass half full, glass half empty thing tells you about optimists and pessimists.

工程师会说，这个容器足以容纳现有的液体，安全系数是2.0。

The engineer would say that the vessel is adequate to contain the available fluid with a safety factor of 2.0.

X的概率是多少。

The probability of X.

当然，哲学家会说，杯子永远是满的，只是有时候装的是空气。

And of course the philosopher would say, well, the glass is always full, it's just sometimes full of air.

那太精彩了。

That was great stuff.

我有机会参加了一次西点军校的毕业典礼。

I had the opportunity to attend a West Point graduation.

我妻子的表兄很多年前从那里毕业，那是一次很棒的经历。

My wife's cousin graduated from there quite a number of years ago now, but it was a, you know, wonderful experience.

五月的西点军校是个美丽的地方。

West Point in May is a beautiful place.

十月份那里很美。

And in October, that's a beautiful place.

二月份那里就不美了。

It is not a beautiful place in February.

二月份可不想去那儿。

Don't wanna go there in February.

约翰上的是康奈尔大学。

John went to Cornell.

他对纽约的天气了如指掌。

He knows all about New York and the weather.

纽约的天气真是够呛。

Lucky weather in New York.

你们可能知道，但你们知道西点军校最初是谁勘测的吗？

You probably know this, but do you guys know who was the original surveyor of West Point?

就是谁实际测量了那块地，让他们在上面建西点军校的？

Like, who actually surveyed the land for them to build West Point on it?

这我可说不上来。

Can't say anything.

乔治·华盛顿。

George Washington.

他1777年在那儿扎过冬营，所以他对那儿多少有点了解。

He had his winter encampment of 1777 there, so he kinda knew a little bit about it.

确实，有点了解。

About it, yeah.

还有美国

And the U.

陆军

S.

工兵部队，真是英明神武，居然把整个驻地的污水处理厂建在他扎营的地方，对历史毫无概念。

Army Corps of Engineers, in its infinite wisdom, decided to put the sewage treatment plant for the whole post on the site of his venture encampment, having no no insight about history.

真的吗？

Really?

他们说他们把那里可能有的考古价值全给毁了？

They said they just ruined all the archaeological value it might have had?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我以前是学考古的，所以这让我很心痛。

I was an archaeology major, so that that that hurts my heart.

好了，汤姆。

Alright, Tom.

好吧，看，非常感谢你，我的朋友。

Well, look, thank you so much, my friend.

爱你们。

Love you guys.

祝你们愉快。

Good day.

好的，我都说了。

Alright, I'll say it all.

干得好。

Great job.

好了，各位，准备好开始了吗？

Alright, gents, you ready to start off?

是的，当然，没问题。

Yeah, yes, sure.

我记得。

Memory serves.

我记得上次是约翰先来的。

I think John went first last time.

迈克，你准备好了吗？

Mike, you ready?

我有一点困惑。

Just one point of, confusion I have.

就是那个公司……公司涨跌线。

The corporate the the the corporate advance decline line.

我觉得他是在说他的公司信用。

He was talking about his corporate credits, I think.

而且那是2026年全年的一个分流还是什么的，按理说应该预示着大幅下跌，但并没有发生。

And that was diversion versus something for all of 2026, and that would portend a big decline, but it hasn't happened.

细节我记不清了。

I can't remember the details.

我可能就把这一点划掉。

I might just strike that point.

我觉得那不是什么大事。

I don't think it was that big of a deal.

你们还记得吗？

Do you guys remember?

基本上，这是他最担心的事情，但你看那些动量振荡指标——基本上就是他全家搞出来的那套东西——

Basically, it's the thing he's most worried about, except that when you look at kind of the momentum oscillators which is basically what his, you know, whole family came up with.

指标显示那个趋势差不多已经到头了。

It is showing that that trend is just about played out.

我是说，好吧。

I mean, okay.

我忘了记下那部分。

I I forgot to write down that part.

那有点复杂。

That gets a little wonky.

你不必提它，但这就是解释。

You don't have to mention it, but that's that's the explanation.

那个企业涨跌线只是针对企业信贷的。

That corporate advance decline line was just for corporate credit.

那是针对企业高收益信贷的。

It was for corporate high yield credit.

高收益信贷。

High yield credit.

差不多已经到头了。

Just about played out.

好的。

Alright.

听起来不错。

Sounds good.

准备好了吗？

Ready?

准备好了，可以开始了。

Ready to go.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Alright.

好的。

Alright.

三，二，一。

Three, two, 1.

好的。

Alright.

那么，现在是频道时间。

Well, now is the time of the channel.

我们邀请了来自新港金融的首席合伙人，这是Thoughtful Money认可的财务顾问公司之一。

We're bringing the lead partners from New Harbor Financial, one of the endorsed financial advisory firms by Thoughtful Money.

本周我们一如既往地请到了首席合伙人约翰·洛德拉和迈克·普雷斯顿。

Pleased to be joined this week as usual by lead partners, John Loadra and Mike Preston.

两位先生，非常感谢你们的到来。

Gentlemen, thanks so much for joining us.

迈克，不如我们先从你开始吧？

Mike, why don't we start with you?

刚才和汤姆的对话中，有没有什么你觉得值得分享的关键点？

Any key takeaways you you feel worth commenting on from the conversation there with Tom?

当然。

Sure.

嗨，亚当。

Hi, Adam.

和汤姆·麦克莱伦的谈话很愉快。

That was a good talk with Tom McClellan.

我们断断续续关注他的通讯很多年了。

We've been following his newsletter on and off for for a lot of years.

我们现在不是订户，但我们了解他的工作。

We're not a current subscriber, but we we know of his work.

我们有客户提到过他的工作，而且他本人和他的父母从事这项工作已经很久了。

We've got clients that mentioned his work and he's been around and his parents have been around doing this work for so long.

我们非常尊重他。而且，你知道，他说市场极度看涨。

We've got a lot of respect for him And, you know, he said bullish is all get out.

我觉得这基本上概括了他谈到的内容，不仅仅是股票，还有我们接下来会聊到的其他东西，比如石油，但为什么这么极度看涨呢？

I think that in general encapsulates what he what he talked about, not just in stocks, but in other things that we'll talk about like oil, but bullish is all get out and why?

政府一直在大量赤字运行，而且从金融危机以来就一直如此。

And the government's been running a huge deficit and it's really been doing it since the great financial crisis.

事实上，我们在这里说过，你的很多嘉宾也在这里说过，其实没有真正的B计划。

In fact, we've said on here and a lot of your guests have said on here that there is no real plan b.

这一切都是某种形式的刺激，而且看起来他们似乎永远不能松油门。

This is all about stimulus one way or another, and it doesn't really seem like they can ever take their foot off the gas.

所以政府长期以来一直处于预算赤字状态。

So the government's been running at budget deficit for a long time.

我想你得回到克林顿时代才能看到预算盈余，但真正恶化是在全球金融危机之后，而且恶化得很厉害。

I think you'd have to go back to the Clinton era to see a budget surplus, but it really got worse, a lot worse after the GFC.

而且，你知道，虽然这对市场来说很棒，对消费者也很好，但从长远来看，这对国家真的很不利。

And, you know, while this is awesome for markets and it's great for consumers, it's really bad long term for the country.

我们负债40万亿美元，而且还在以接近3万亿美元的速度增长，这还是在经济衰退之前，因为我们还没有经历过衰退。

We're 40,000,000,000,000 in debt and going up by, what, close to 3,000,000,000,000, and that's before we've had a recession because we haven't seen a recession.

我觉得2020年的那个小波动真的不能算作衰退。

I don't think you can count the little blip in 2020 really as a recession.

自全球金融危机以来，我们还没有经历过衰退，所以让我们拭目以待吧。

We haven't had one since the great financial crisis, so we'll see what happens.

不过，是的，他讲了很多图表。

But, yeah, he talked about a lot of charts.

我会尽量快速地把它们概括出来。

I'm gonna try to encapsulate them as fast as I can.

可能不会全部讲到。

I may not hit them all.

我会告诉你们我们同意的那些，也许还会告诉你们有没有我们不同意的。

I'll tell you the ones that we agree with, maybe tell you if there's ones that we don't agree with.

但是第三年

But the third year

我快速插一句，我想对比一下这个，并且你可以随意纠正。

real quick for you, I just wanna contrast this and correct this any way you like.

在新港，你们经常使用技术分析。

At New Harbor, you guys use technical analysis a fair amount.

你们每周都会带我们过一遍。

You walk us through it every week.

但你会把技术分析和宏观分析结合起来，比如债务问题或者经济形势。

But you map that with your macro analysis bring into things like the debt or what's happening in the economy.

汤姆更像是经典的技术分析派，只看图表，看图表形态，看图表告诉他的信息。

Tom is much more of a classic TA guy of, I'm just looking at the charts, and I'm looking at the patterns of the charts and what the charts tell me.

这两者并不总是能兼容。

And those two things aren't always compatible.

所以分歧可能在于，你们对技术分析的看法可能相似，但宏观判断不同，导致持仓方向不一样。

So some of the differences are going to be, you might actually see the TA in a similar way, but your macro outlook may be causing you to have a different position.

我想让听众知道，汤姆纯粹看图表的方法和你们的方法论之间是有差异的。

I just want to let the audience sort of know there's somewhat of a difference of methodologies here between Tom's pure just the the charts analysis versus how you guys look at things.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

汤姆确实更深入细节，从工程学的角度来看问题。

Tom really gets into the weeds more of an engineering viewpoint.

你知道，他提到过他在西点军校读的是工程专业，我记得他是这么说的。

You know, he he mentioned to us that he was an engineering major at West Point, I believe he said.

所以，我和约翰也都是工程专业出身，我觉得这可能就是为什么我们看问题的方式有些相似。

And so, I mean, John and I also are engineering majors, and I think that's probably why we have some commonality in how we look at things.

不过他实际用的方法确实不一样。

The actual methodology that he uses is different.

我觉得他比我们更看重季节性因素。

I think he leans heavily or more heavily into seasonality than we do.

有好几张图表都是关于季节性的。

A number of things, a number of these charts were about seasonality.

比如总统选举周期，我们马上就要进入第三年了，我记得他说这个周期大概从十月或十一月开始。

For instance, the the presidential election cycle were really close to entering the third year and I think he said that that actually starts somewhere around October, November.

因为他从十一月一号算起。

Well, because he starts from November 1.

对，所以是从十一月开始。

So, yeah, it starts in November.

我们离那个上涨的转折点很近了，如果你还记得他的图表，那是一个大幅上涨的走势。

We're really close to that turning higher and it's a if you if you remember his chart, it was it's a big up move.

他预测会有一波大涨，基于那个季节性，也就是总统任期的第三年周期。

He's predicting a big up move based on that seasonality, third year presidential cycle.

实际上，是的，他说大概还有一到两周，他认为我们可能就会从那条线开始往上爬。

In fact, yeah, he said about one to two weeks away, he thinks we could be, from that from that line to start climbing.

他还谈到了中期选举。

Also talked about the midterm elections.

我们很多客户一直担心选举，说如果是民主党大获全胜，我们认为那会搞崩市场，或者那是普遍的看法。

A lot of our clients have been concerned about the election saying, if it's a democratic sweep, we think that'll crash the market or that's kind of the conventional wisdom.

汤姆在这里说，不管发生什么都不重要。

Tom is on here saying it doesn't matter what happens.

不重要。

Doesn't matter.

重要的是有个结果，市场知道这是个结果，我们同意这一点。

It just matters that there's a decision, that the market knows it's a decision, and we agree with that.

在新港，我们不太看重到底会发生什么。

At New Harbor, we don't really put much weight into into whatever happens.