一条更窄的成长与稳定之路

欢迎收听《市场观点》节目。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利的阿鲁尼玛·辛哈。

I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's U.

S。

S.

还有全球经济团队。

And Global Economics teams.

今天我想聊聊利率上升对经济活动、通胀以及政策走向意味着什么。

Today, I'll talk about what rising rates mean for economic activity, inflation, and the policy path.

现在是纽约时间10月19日星期一上午十点。

It's Monday, October 19, at 10AM in New York.

美联储在九月提高了利率，但市场对后续加息的预期仍然充满变数。

The FOMC raised rates in September, but expectations for future hikes remain volatile.

最新CPI数据公布后短短几小时内，市场情绪反复震荡，一度将十月加息的概率推至五五开，随后又回落了。

Within hours of the latest CPI print, markets round tripped, pushing the probability to even for an October hike before retreating.

现在，与我们的基准预测一致，市场认为12月最有可能再次加息，但更远期的走势，

Now, consistent with our baseline forecast, the market assigns December the highest likelihood for the next hike, but moves further along The U.

美国

S.

国债收益率曲线更加重要。

Curve matter even more.

值得注意的是，十年期收益率已经发生了变化。

Notably, the ten year yield shifted.

退一步看，出现的一个问题是，我们应多大程度担心广泛的通胀上行意味着需要更紧缩的政策来压低通胀，从而影响增长，还是金融条件已经自行收紧到足以让央行的工作减少而非增加。

One question that arises taking a step back is how much we should worry that broad based inflation upside means tighter policy is required to push down inflation and therefore growth, or have financial conditions tightened enough on their own that the central bank has less, not more work to do.

货币政策的校准一直都很困难，而现在变得更加紧迫。

The calibration of monetary policy has always been difficult, and now it is becoming urgent.

经济学家试图将利率水平放在与经济自然利率相对的位置来考量。

Economists try to put the level of interest rates into the context of where they stand relative to the economy's natural rate.

更强的生产率和投资需求应该意味着更高的自然利率，因此给定的利率水平限制性较小。

Stronger productivity growth and investment demand should mean a higher natural rate, so a given level of rates is less restrictive.

长期国债收益率上升，同时增长和盈利预期依然强劲，这表明中性利率可能确实更高了。

The rise in long term treasury yields alongside still firm growth and earnings expectations is an indication that the neutral rate may indeed be higher.

当收益率因增长前景改善而上升时，预期回报也会上升，资本需求随之增强。

When yields rise because growth prospects are improving, expected returns rise and the demand for capital strengthens.

在这种情况下，较高的利率不一定具有紧缩效应。

In that setting, higher rates are not necessarily contractionary.

但也有一种不那么乐观的可能性。

But there is a less benign alternative.

收益率上升也是因为通胀一直居高不下。

Yields have also risen because inflation has been hot.

财政方面的担忧在加剧，投资者要求更高的补偿来持有长期债券。

Fiscal concerns are intensifying, and investors are demanding more compensation for holding duration.

沃什主席提出的问题——金融条件是否具有限制性——现在开始得到不同的答案。

The question that Chair Warsh has posed, are financial conditions restrictive, is starting to get a different answer.

校准将是决定经济走向的关键。

Calibration will be key to how the economy evolves.

对美国来说，

For The U.

嗯，

S.

到目前为止，即使是最新的通胀超预期数据，也表明需求依然强劲，而不是能源驱动的滞胀。

So far, even the most recent upside inflation surprise pointed to resilient demand rather than energy driven stagflation.

简单的解释是，许多公司仍然认为回报远高于其资本成本。

The simple explanation is that many firms still see returns well above their cost of capital.

我们美国经济团队最近的研究

Recent work from our U.

嗯，

S.

支持这种观点。

Economics team supports such a view.

可能存在的差异是在行业层面，而且这种差异似乎越来越明显。

Where there may be a contrast is at the sector level, and that seems to be becoming more apparent.

如果经济活动主要集中在由创新、生产力和战略性投资驱动的领域，那么经济对利率的敏感度可能低于过去的周期。

If activity is concentrated in sectors driven by innovation, productivity, and strategic investment, the economy may be less rate sensitive than in past cycles.

在这些相互矛盾的力量之间校准政策并非易事。

Calibrating policy amid these opposing forces is no easy task.

我们看到信用谱系中最低质量部分的利差扩大最为显著，而且住房活动已处于衰退水平，这些迹象在美国尤为明显。

The fact that we're seeing the biggest spread widening in the lowest quality part of the credit spectrum and the fact that housing activity is at recessionary levels are some tells in The U.

美国。

S.

政策环境和金融条件都比较紧缩。

That policy and financial conditions are restrictive.

欧洲收紧金融条件的迹象相对更明显一些，部分原因是人工智能资本开支的影响没那么强。

The signs of tighter financial conditions are somewhat more visible in Europe, in part because the AI CapEx spend is less of a factor.

经济增长一直挺有韧性，但还不足以抵消高利率带来的财政担忧加剧。

Growth has been resilient, but not sufficiently so to offset rising fiscal concerns from higher rates.

法国国债的抛售就充分说明了风险平衡是如何迅速发生变化的。

The French OAT sell off shows how quickly the balance of risk shifts.

从全球来看，金融环境正在给宏观经济带来更严峻的挑战。

Globally, financial conditions are introducing tougher conditions to the macro landscape.

直到最近，经济传递的信号一直很明确。

Until recently, the economy's message had been clear.

高利率确实抑制了一些行业，但并没有真正改变经济扩张的轨迹。

Higher rates were restraining some sectors, but without meaningfully altering the expansion's trajectory.

只要预期回报能随着借贷成本上升，那么收益率就可以保持在高位，而不会变得明显紧缩。

As long as expected returns rise alongside borrowing costs, then yields can remain high without becoming decisively restrictive.

但正如我们利率策略团队的同事所指出的，通胀压力推高的是实际利率，而不是盈亏平衡通胀率。

But as our rate strategy colleagues have noted, inflationary pressures have pushed up real rates, not break evens.

所以市场在告诉我们，政策正在收紧，目的是抑制增长，最终压低通胀。

So the market is telling us that policy is getting tighter to restrain growth and eventually pull down inflation.

美国最新的通胀数据——

The latest inflation print in The U.

——

S.

这进一步加剧了这场争论。

Reinforces this debate.

金融条件是否已经具有限制性？

Are financial conditions restrictive?

接下来有几个催化剂，比如第三季度财报、超大规模企业的资本支出、信用利差扩大，以及美国大选和即将召开的美联储会议，市场将需要转向评估增长风险，因为各国央行正试图重新调整政策。

With several catalysts ahead, Q3 earnings, hyperscaler CapEx, credit spread widening, and the U.

美国

S.

选举和美联储会议即将到来，市场将需要转向评估增长风险，因为各国央行正试图重新调整政策。

Elections, the Fed meeting coming up, markets will need to shift to assessing growth risks as central banks try to recalibrate.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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以上内容仅供参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不是要约或招揽，也不是税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

它没有考虑你的财务状况和目标，可能不适合你。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.