AI债务开始推动美国国债市场

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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是马修·霍恩巴赫，摩根士丹利宏观策略全球主管。

I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.

我是维希·蒂鲁帕图尔，首席固定收益策略师。

I am Vishy Tirupattur, Chief Fixed Income Strategist.

今天，我们来聊聊美国国债市场和企业债市场之间的互动。

Today, the interplay between The U.

美国

S.

国债市场和企业债市场。

Treasury market and the corporate bond market.

现在是纽约时间9月8日星期二上午10点。

It's Tuesday, September 8 at 10AM in New York.

那么，维希，我想先问问你，企业债市场最近怎么样？

So, Vishy, what I'd like to do is start by asking you what's going on in the corporate bond market?

市场上有什么新发行？

What's coming to market?

久期有多长？

How much duration does it have?

跟我们聊聊企业债中的人工智能主题吧。

Talk to us about the theme of AI in corporate bonds.

所以现在的情况是这样的。

So this is what is happening.

超大规模企业有巨大的资本支出需求，而且它们会看到实现投资资本回报的机会。

Hyperscalers have enormous CapEx needs, and they'll see opportunity for realizing return on invested capital.

正因为如此，人工智能基础设施的资本支出需求非常庞大。

And in anticipation of that, the CapEx requirements for the AI infrastructure are enormous.

我分析的关键动机是，对计算能力的需求远远超过供应，只要这种供需失衡存在，资本支出就会持续需要，而这些资本支出需要融资，整个信贷市场——不仅仅是无担保市场，你知道，公开市场的信贷、私人投资级、无担保、有担保、高收益、低于投资级、杠杆贷款、私人信贷，所有这些信贷渠道都将

And the key motivation that I analyze is that the demand for compute vastly exceeds the supply of compute, and that as long as that demand supply imbalance is there, there is a continued need for CapEx and that CapEx needs to be financed and credit markets across the board, not just the unsecured market, you know, credit markets in public space, private investment grade, unsecured, secured, high yield, below investment grade, leveraged loans, private credit, all of these channels of the credit markets are going

被用来支持它们的融资。

to be deployed to enable their financing.

维希，过去一年里你写了很多关于这方面的文章，而且你确实一直走在前沿，预料到会有大量的供应。

Now, Vishy, you've written about this extensively over the course of the past year and have really been on the forefront of expecting a lot of supply.

但是，这些超大规模企业带来的供应规模，有没有连你自己都感到惊讶的时候？

But have you even been surprised at the scale of the supply that we've gotten from these hyperscalers?

我们感到惊讶的，倒不是发行规模本身，而是这些市场的广度和深度，以及市场处理这些发行相关复杂性的能力。

We are surprised not so much by the scale of the issuance, but certainly by the breadth and the depth of these markets, and also the ability of the markets to deal with complexity associated with this issuance.

所以，大约一年前，我们当时预期大部分会是投资级，大部分只限于美元计价。

So in, you know, about a year ago, we were expecting that much of this would be investment grade only much of this would be only U.

美元。

S.

计价。

Dollar denominated.

我们错了。

We were wrong.

我们看到发行涉及七种货币，而且发行确实大量发生在投资级，但也出现在高收益和杠杆贷款中，还有更多出现在结构化的私人投资级信贷和证券化信贷中。市场在深度、广度和复杂性上的应对能力，确实让我们感到惊讶。

We we have seen issuance in seven currencies, and we have seen issuance substantially happen in investment grade, but also in high yield and in leveraged loans and a lot more in structured private investment grade credit and in securitized credit, we have been surprised by the ability of the markets to both in their depth and the breadth and complexity, clearly been surprised.

其中一些发行对其他市场影响最大的特点之一，就是无担保AI相关融资的期限。

And one of the the features of some of the issuance that may have been the most impactful on other markets has been the duration of unsecured AI related financing.

跟我们聊聊那边的情况吧。

Talk to us a little bit about what's going on there.

所以如果你看AI基础设施，可以从很多不同的角度来看。

So if you look at the AI infrastructure, can think of it in many different forms.

一种思考方式是数据中心，包括厂房、土地、芯片、服务器。

One way of thinking about it is the data centers building the fab, the land, the chips, the servers.

整个数据中心，如果算上整个数据中心，它们的预期寿命超过二十年，而且资本开支需求很大。

The whole if you took the whole data centers, their life expected life is something north of twenty years, and there is a lot of CapEx requirements.

所以最初，当你把整个数据中心作为一个整体来融资时，有些发行的期限远远超过了二十年。

So initial, when you're financing the entire data center as one package, there has been issuance that went well beyond the twenty year point in the term.

而且记住，资本开支需求是全面的。

And keep in mind that the CapEx requirements are kind of across the board.

所以不仅仅是二十多年期的债券。

So it's not just been twenty plus year bonds.

已经发行了各种期限的债券，其中包括大量二十年以上的长期债券。

There have been bonds issued of various tenures, including a substantial supply of twenty plus year of duration.

现在的情况是，其中一些重点正在转向更短期的部分。

Now what is happening is that the focus of some of that is changing towards more shorter term component of it.

所以我们已经从为整个数据中心融资，转向为各个组件融资，尤其是芯片。

So we've gone from the financing the entire data structure moving towards financing components, in particular chips.

芯片存在技术过时的因素。

The chips have a technological obsolescence factor associated with them.

所以芯片大约需要五年后重新融资。

So the chips need to be refinanced in about five years.

因此，现在越来越多出现的结构是摊销型结构，也就是五年期到期贷款。

So the structures that are now increasingly emerging are towards amortizing structures that are more five year duration five year maturity loans.

这听起来像是一个有趣的转变，从更长期限、更长久期的发行转向某种……

So this sounds like an interesting shift from much longer duration, longer maturity issuance to something in what the U.

美国……

S.

美国国债所说的曲线腹部，大概就是两到五年期的部分。

Treasury would call the belly of the curve, kind of in the two to five year maturity sector.

对吧？

Is that right?

对，也不对。

So yes and no.

我之所以这么说，是有原因的。

And I'm I'm I'm hedging only for the following reason.

因为很多这些发行方，在发行规模上还比较新，所以他们还没有建立起固定的发行节奏。

Because a lot of these issuance, these issuers are relatively new in their size of this issuance, so they have not established a certain cadence of issuance.

并不是说他们放弃了长期债券，而是重点在转移。

It's not that they have given up on the longer maturity, but the focus is shifting.

我们预计更多会集中在五年期这个点上。

We expect more to the the five year point of the curve.

另外重要的一点是，数据中心遭遇了相当大的政治阻力。

Another important thing is there has been a significant political pushback on the data centers.

我们看到纽约州已经实施了暂停令。

We have seen moratoria in the state of New York.

这在中期选举中是一个非常热门的话题，而且对数据中心的反对是两党共同的，而且非常活跃。

It's a very live issue in much of the midterm elections, and opposition to data center is bipartisan, and it's very much alive.

因此，由于这个原因，数据中心的建设可能会放缓，从而导致长期资本支出放缓。

So because of this, we may have some slowdown in the buildup of data centers, therefore, slowdown in the long term CapEx.

但短期内，你知道，几年前购买的芯片需要补充，新芯片也需要部署，所以融资重点可能会从长期转向短期。

But then near term, you know, the chips that were bought few a few years ago need to be replenished, and new chips need to be deployed so that financing focus might shift from a longer term to a shorter term.

但话虽如此，他们不会完全放弃长期融资。

But that said, they're not going to let go entirely of the longer term financing.

只是重点会转向五年期左右的中期。

Just the focus will shift towards the mid sort of five year term.

这很有意思，因为在美国，

That's very interesting because in The U.

嗯，

S.

在国债市场，焦点一直不在五年期部分。

Treasury market, the focus has not been on the five year sector.

而是在收益率曲线的更远端，三十年期国债收益率创下了几十年来未见过的高点。

It has been further out the yield curve, where thirty year Treasury yields have been making highs for that we haven't seen for a couple of decades now.

而且这不仅仅体现在国债的名义收益率部分。

And it hasn't been just in the nominal yield component of Treasurys.

实际收益率也是如此。

It's been in the real yield as well.

事实上，在整个债券收益率上升的过程中，名义收益率和实际收益率之间的差距，也就是所谓的盈亏平衡通胀率，一直非常稳定。

And in fact, the difference between the nominal and the real yield, the so called breakeven inflation rate, has actually been very stable throughout this move higher in overall bond yields.

那么，马特，我想问你一个问题。

So, Matt, let me ask this question.

过去几周，我们看到长期利率，尤其是二十年以上的利率，一直居高不下。

For the last several weeks, we have seen long end rates, particularly twenty plus year rates, being persistently high.

你认为是什么原因导致二十年以上期限的收益率持续高企？

What is in your mind driving this persistently high yield in the twenty plus year category?

所以，这其实是财政部长贝森特最近在CNBC采访中提到的一点，他说八月份通常是美国国债市场交易量较低的月份。

So this is something that treasury secretary Bessent alluded to in his recent interview on CNBC that the month of August tends to be a month of lower transaction volumes in The U.

美国

S.

国债市场。

Treasury market.

而且，具体来说，每个月的中旬往往是交易量最低的时段。

And in particular, the middle of the month tends to be the lowest transaction volume period within any given month.

所以我们猜测，可能的情况是，那些投资了你提到的公司债券的投资者，可能正在调整自己的资产负债表，为大多数人预期九月份会到来的发行做准备。

And so what we think might be going on is that investors who have been investing in these corporate bonds that you've talked about may be preparing their own balance sheets for the issuance that most people tend to expect to come in September.

如果真是这样，那就有理由认为，这些投资者会尝试卖掉他们持有的一些债券，或者干脆停止购买债券，以应对预期中九月份的供应。

Now if that was the case, then it would be reasonable to assume that those investors tried to sell the some of the bonds that they had or perhaps just stop buying any bonds in preparation for the supply that they would expect to come in September.

如果情况如此，交易商们不得不把这些久期风险吸收到自己的资产负债表上，他们很可能想把这些风险重新释放回市场。

If that was the case and the dealer community had to absorb that duration risk onto their balance sheets, they probably would want to recycle that back into the market.

而最流动的方式就是卖出美国国债。

And the most liquid way of doing that is to sell treasuries.

所以我们确实认为，交易商在吸收投资者抛售的公司债时，很可能也卖出了部分国债。

And so we do think that there was very likely some selling of treasuries by the dealer community as they were absorbing corporate bonds from the investor base.

马特，这么说有道理。

So that makes sense, Matt.

你知道，如果考虑到交易商和投资者都在预期未来公司债的发行，这确实会影响他们今天的操作。

You know, if you think about the dealer community as well as investors, their anticipation of future corporate bond issuance could drive their actions today.

但我想指出的一点是，因为这些是新发行方，而且他们还没有建立起固定的发行节奏，所以他们进入市场的频率、周期以及发行期限都可能存在很大的不确定性。

But the only point I would make is that because these are new issuers and because they have not established a cadence, there could be substantial variability in in their frequency and periodicity that they will come to the market and in what tenor.

你知道，我之前提到过长期融资需求和短期融资需求之间的区别。

You know, there's this change I talked about longer term financing needs versus component financing needs.

这些发行方有很多自由度，他们可以利用这些自由度，而投资者和交易商对这些自由度可能是什么样并没有太多概念。

There are all of these degrees of freedom these issuers have that they can sort of use that degrees of freedom, and the investors and the dealers don't have a lot of sense of what that might be.

听起来会有很多不确定性，这可能意味着会有很多波动。

It sounds like there's going to be a lot of uncertainty, which might mean that there's going to be a lot of volatility.

那么，维希，感谢你坐下来和我聊债券市场。

So with that, Vishy, thanks for sitting down and talking about the bond market with me.

很高兴和你聊天，马特。

Great to hang out with you, Matt.

也谢谢大家的收听。

And thanks for listening.

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