2026年亚洲经济与市场展望

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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利中国股票策略主管Laura Wang。

I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.

我是亚洲首席经济学家Chetanaya。

And I'm Chetanaya, Chief Asia Economist.

今天我们将展望2026年亚洲宏观经济，特别聚焦中国股市。

Today, our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.

现在是12月10日星期三上午10点

It's Wednesday, December 10 at ten a.

整

M.

香港时间。

In Hong Kong.

Chetan，随着2025年接近尾声，回想去年此时的市场预期，当时多数参与者可能都预计2025年出口贸易领域将面临阻力。

Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front.

但事实证明，亚洲今年的出口增长目前达到了8%的增速。

But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8% this year so far.

你对这个意外情况有何解释？

What's your explanation for this surprise?

嗯，是的，劳拉。

Well, yes, Laura.

你知道，我们之前都担心可能会出现关税，特别是针对中国的关税。

You know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China.

因此，我们担心该地区的出口可能会受到负面影响。

And therefore, we were concerned that regions exports may be affected negatively.

然而实际情况是，科技产品出口带动了整个地区的出口增长。

However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region.

这完全得益于我们一直在关注的人工智能和科技发展的故事。

And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.

但好消息是，非科技类出口将在2026年复苏。

But the good news is that non tech exports will recover in 2026.

事实上，这是我们做出的关键预测：从明年初开始，你将看到美国国内需求的改善，这将有助于亚洲的出口。

In fact, that's the key call we are making, that from early next year, you will see that improvement in The US domestic demand that helps Asia's exports.

与此同时，我们预计大部分与关税相关的不确定性届时将成为过去。

And at the same time, we're expecting that bulk of this tariff related uncertainty would be behind us.

因此，我们认为这两个因素将支持2026年非科技出口的复苏。

And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non tech exports in 2026.

那太好了。

That's great.

从科技产品到非科技产品的出口转变有多显著？

How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non tech?

我们认为这对该地区的经济前景非常重要。

Well, we think that's very important for regions' economic outlook.

因为虽然科技出口的复苏有助于保持该地区整体出口的强劲增长，但它对经济没有产生更广泛的乘数效应。

Because when you think about the tech exports recovery, it was helpful to keep regions' overall exports growth strong, but it did not have the broader multiplier effect on the economy.

例如，科技出口往往资本密集度更高，我们在就业增长方面看不到太多益处。

So for example, when you think about the tech exports, it tends to be more capital intensive and we don't see much benefit on job growth.

我认为最好的例子是观察台湾的经济数据，我们看到今年迄今GDP增长非常强劲。

I think the best example I can give you is when you look at the Taiwan economic numbers, we've seen very strong GDP growth year to date.

但与此同时，消费数据一直非常疲软。

But at the same time, consumption numbers have been very weak.

因此非科技类出口的复苏对于整体经济复苏至关重要。

And so non tech exports recovery is very important for the broader economic recovery.

而这正是我们对2026年的预期。

And that is precisely what we expect in 2026.

你们将看到经济增长的全面扩散，随之而来的是资本支出增加、就业增长和消费复苏。

You will see that broadening out of growth with follow-up in CapEx, job growth and consumption recovery.

你们的研究表明亚洲通胀将在2026年温和上升。

Your work suggests that Asia inflation will pick up modestly in 2026.

这一趋势背后的因素是什么？

What factors are behind this trend?

随着非科技类出口复苏成为现实，你们应该会看到该地区整体产能利用率的提升。

Well, as the non tech export recovery materializes, you should see improvement in capacity utilization across the board in the region.

这将缓解我们今年以来所见的通缩压力。

That should reduce the disinflationary pressures that we've been seeing year to date.

与此同时，我们预计该地区来自中国的通缩压力也将在2026年得到缓解。

And at the same time, we are expecting that the disinflationary pressures that the region was facing from China is also going to ease in 2026.

亚洲各国央行将如何应对以保持通胀处于舒适区间？

How will Asia's central banks respond to keep inflation within their comfort zones?

这对2026年整个地区的货币政策意味着什么？

And what does this mean for monetary policy across the region in 2026?

实际上，对于将通胀维持在央行舒适区间内并没有太多担忧，因为我们看到今年以来亚洲地区的通胀率远低于该地区许多经济体的央行目标。

Well, actually, there's not much concern about keeping the inflation within the central bank's comfort zone because what we've seen year to date in Asia is that inflation has been much lower than the central bank's target for a number of economies in the region.

对此，他们一直在通过进一步降息来应对。

And, they have been responding to this with more interest rate cuts.

但展望未来，随着通缩压力减轻，我们预计该地区央行将结束降息周期。

But, going forward, as disinflationary pressure is reduced, we are expecting that the Central Banks in the region would end their rate cutting cycle.

我们预计部分央行可能还会进行一到两次降息，此后政策利率将在2026年底前基本保持稳定。

We should see just about one to two more rate cuts for some of the central banks, and then policy rates should remain largely stable through to the end of 2026.

那么，Lorna，现在让我来请教你。

So, Lorna, let me come to you now.

2025年对中国市场而言是非常强劲的一年。

So 2025 was a very strong year for China markets.

而你认为2026年将是一个保持稳定的年份，而非突破性增长的一年。

And you see 2026 as a keep it steady year rather than a breakout year.

对投资者和企业而言，这种稳定性意味着什么？

What does stability look like for investors and companies?

确实如此。

That's right.

2025年对中国股市来说是非常好的一年。

2025 was a very good year for China equity market.

我们看到MSCI中国指数和恒生指数绝对回报率都超过了30%。

We saw both MSCI China and Hang Seng Index delivering more than 30% return in absolute terms.

展望2026年，我们认为这一年对投资者和市场而言，是保持并巩固2025年已取得成果的时期，但目前来看不太可能出现更大幅度的上涨空间。

Going into 2026, we see it as a year for investors and for the market to preserve and protect what has been achieved in 2025 so far, but not with significantly much higher upside at this point.

这是因为2025年至今我们所看到的估值重估已经超过30%，接近40%。

This is because the valuation rereading we've seen so far in 2025 is already more than 30%, close to 40%.

在2026年，我们认为估值将基本维持在现有水平，市场的进一步上涨将更多由稳健的盈利增长驱动。

In '26, we think the valuation will largely stay at its current level and further upside for the market will be more driven by solid earnings growth.

对于2026年，我们预计MSCI中国指数的年度盈利增长约为6%。

For 2026, we see MSCI China's earnings growth year on year at around 6%.

在这样的背景下，劳拉，你预计明年会有更多资金流入市场吗？

So with that backdrop, Laura, do you expect more inflows into the market next year?

当然。

Absolutely.

事实上，我们已经与全球众多投资者进行了交流，发现他们对投资中国股票的兴趣显著提升，尤其是在一些研发和创新密集型领域。

Actually, we have already talked to so many investors on a global basis, and we are seeing much higher level of interest in investing in Chinese equities, particularly in some R and D and innovation heavy sectors.

尽管如此，我们也观察到全球投资者对中国股票的配置仍然相对较低，实际上在各个板块都还存在相当规模的低配，这意味着他们在2026年逐步增加对中国市场配置的空间还很大。

That being said, what we are seeing also is relatively light positioning by global investors in Chinese equities, actually across the board, still a quite sizable underweight, which means there will be much higher room for them to increase their allocation gradually in 2026 back to China.

随着美中紧张关系有所缓和，以及中国在人工智能和智能制造领域的加码，你认为这其中存在哪些现实世界的机遇？

And with The US China tensions easing a bit and China doubling down on AI and smart manufacturing, where do you see the real world opportunities from that?

中国股市将涌现大量机遇，但我们会坚持投资那些未来几年能实现稳健盈利增长的企业。

There will be a lot of opportunities inside Chinese equity market, but we do want to stay with the names that will be delivering very solid earnings growth in the next few years.

我们还想强调中国决策层制定的未来五年增长战略。

And we also want to highlight the next five years growth strategy laid out by Chinese policymakers.

我们要确保重点布局与国家增长战略高度契合的行业，尤其是研发和创新领域，包括人工智能、智能制造、自动化、机器人技术和生物科技。

We want to make sure that we focus on the sectors that are very well aligned with the national growth strategy, with a strong focus in R and D and innovation, And that would include AI, as well as smart manufacturing, automation, robotics, and biotechs.

这些行业已引起全球投资者的浓厚兴趣。

We also have collected very high level of interest from global investors in these sectors.

同时，虽然2026年通缩压力将有所缓解，但可能持续至2027年，我们建议投资者仍需配置部分优质分红标的。

At the same time, as we start to see less deflation pressure in 2026, but still with it potentially persisting into 2027, we want investors to still hold on to some exposure to high quality dividend plays.

这些股票提供的稳定现金回报将帮助您应对明年的市场波动。

The steady cash returns from these stocks will help you navigate through some volatilities in the market in next year.

所以您预期全球投资者将回归，内地投资者会将储蓄资金转入股市，同时香港市场的跨境交易将保持活跃？

So you expect global investors returning, mainland investors shifting money from savings into stocks, and strong cross border trading within Hong Kong.

这对市场行为和主题投资机会意味着什么？

What does that mean for market behavior and thematic opportunities?

我们在2025年观察到一个非常积极的发展，就是香港资本市场活动非常活跃。

One very positive development we have observed in 2025 is the strong capital market activities in Hong Kong.

以单一交易所计算，香港实际上是2025年全球最活跃的IPO市场。

Hong Kong at single stock exchange basis actually is the most active IPO market in the world in 2025.

在政策支持下香港将继续保持全球金融中心地位，我们预计这一趋势将持续。

And with policy support for Hong Kong to continue as a global financial hub, we expect this trend to continue.

因此我们预计未来一年香港和中国内地的资本市场活动将越来越频繁。

So we are seeing more and more capital market activities happening in Hong Kong and Mainland China in the next year.

至于主题性投资机会，我已经提到过与国家增长战略高度契合、注重创新研发的领域。

And in terms of thematic opportunities, I already mentioned that opportunities align with the national growth strategy with very heavy innovation and R and D focus.

在这些机会之外，我们也强烈建议投资者关注反垄断演变、公司治理改革等主题性机会。

Along these opportunities, we're also heavily recommending investors to focus on thematic opportunities such as anti evolution, as well as corporate governance reform.

以上就是我们对亚洲经济及中国股市的新年展望总结。

That summarizes our new year outlook for Asia economy as well as China equity market.

切坦，非常感谢你抽时间与我交流。

Chetan, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.

很高兴和你交谈，劳拉。

Great speaking with you, Laura.

也感谢你的收听。

And thanks for listening.

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