更大退税或将提振经济

欢迎收听《市场观点》，新年快乐。

Welcome to thoughts on the market, and happy New Year.

我是摩根士丹利美国经济团队的海瑟·伯格。

I'm Heather Berger from Morgan Stanley's US economics team.

在今天的节目中，我们将探讨为什么美国消费者可以期待更高的退税，以及这会对整体经济产生什么影响。

On today's episode, why US consumers can expect higher tax refunds and what that means for the overall economy.

现在是纽约时间1月2日，星期五，上午10点。

It's Friday, January 2, at 10AM in New York.

当我们开启2026年时，这不仅是一个全新的开始。

As we kick off 2026, it's not just a fresh start.

同时也是退税季节即将来临的时候。

It's also the time when tax refund season is right around the corner.

对许多人来说，这些退税不仅仅是纸面上的数字。

For many of us, those refunds aren't just numbers on a page.

它们影响着我们如何为许多日常开销做预算。

They shape the way we budget for many everyday expenses.

今年退税的时间和金额将对我们能够储蓄、消费或提前偿还账单产生实际影响。

The timing and size of our refunds this year can make a real difference in how much we're able to save, spend, or get ahead on bills.

在《一揽子宏伟法案》通过后，今年的退税季规模预计将超过往常。

In the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, this year's tax refund season is shaping up to be bigger than usual.

这项新的财政法案为消费者纳入了多种减税措施。

The new fiscal bill packed in a variety of tax cuts for consumers.

它还包括削减了如SNAP福利和医疗补助等项目支出，但这些削减大多要到本十年后期才会生效。

It also included spending cuts to programs such as SNAP benefits and Medicaid, but most of those cuts don't pick up until later this decade.

总体而言，这意味着我们很可能在2026年看到个人收入和消费能力的提升。

Altogether, this means that we'll likely see personal income and spending power get a boost in 2026.

该法案中许多针对消费者的新增扣除项和税收抵免被追溯适用于2025财年。

Many of the new deductions and tax credits for consumers in the bill were made retroactive to the 2025 fiscal year.

这些措施包括对小费和加班收入的扣除、更高的儿童税收抵免、增加的老年人扣除额，以及提高州和地方税扣除上限等。

These include deductions for tips and overtime, a higher child tax credit, an increased senior deduction, and a higher cap on state and local tax deductions, among some others.

这些措施的追溯部分应在今年早些时候的退税中体现出来。

The retroactive portion of these measures should be reflected in tax refunds early this year.

总体而言，我们预计这些变化将使退税平均增加15%至20%，不同群体将从法案的不同部分中受益。

Overall, we're expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15 to 20% on average, and different groups will benefit from different parts of the bill.

例如，更高的州和地方税扣除上限可能最有利于高收入人群，而小费和加班扣除则对中等收入群体最有价值。

For example, the higher state and local tax cap is likely to help high income consumers the most, while deductions for tips and overtime will be most valuable to middle income earners.

历史上，美国。

Historically, U.

S。

S.

消费者大约在二月收到30%至45%的退税，而到三月则有60%至70%到账。

Consumers receive about 30 to 45% of tax refunds by the February, with then 60 to 70% arriving by the March.

由于新的税收条款，我们预计今年第一季度个人收入将显著增加。

Because of the new tax provisions, we're anticipating a noticeable boost in personal income during the first quarter of the year.

尽管我们也预期这项立法将促进更高水平的消费，但消费增长不太可能像收入那样立即大幅上升。

While we do also expect this legislation to encourage higher spending, it's unlikely that we'll see spending rise as sharply as income right away.

根据调查，大多数消费者表示，他们主要将退税用于储蓄或偿还债务。

According to surveys, most consumers say that they use their refunds mainly for saving or paying down debt.

这可以导致更健康的资产负债表，表现为退税季节期间预付款率上升和贷款违约率下降。

This can lead to healthier balance sheets, which is shown by higher prepayment rates and fewer loan delinquencies during the tax refund season.

当人们选择将全部或部分退税用于消费时，他们通常会将这笔钱用于日常需求、旅行、新衣服或房屋装修。

When people do choose to spend all or some of their refunds, they typically put that money towards everyday needs, travel, new clothes, or home improvements.

展望未来，我们仍看到一些短期抑制消费的因素，例如关税导致的通胀上升以及《平价医疗法案》补贴的到期，这些将对低收入消费者影响最大。

Looking ahead, we do still see some near term headwinds to spending, such as expected increases in inflation from tariffs and the expiration of the Affordable Care Act credits, which will most affect low income consumers.

不过，随着全年推进，我们预计随着劳动力市场稳定、通胀放缓以及宽松货币政策的滞后效应逐步显现，实际消费支出将稳步增长。

As we progress throughout the year, though, we're anticipating steady growth in real consumer spending as the labor market stabilizes, inflation decelerates, and lagged effects of easier monetary policy flow through.

此外，今年更大的退税额将为家庭消费提供另一轮提振。

On top of that, this year's larger tax refunds should give another lift to household spending.

消费的增加，加上法案中的其他企业条款，今年也应为整体经济提供推动力。

The boost to spending, along with other corporate provisions in the bill, should give the broader economy a push this year too.

我们预计该法案整体将支持2026年的GDP增长，但随着更多支出削减措施生效，之后几年将转为拖累经济增长。

We expect the bill as a whole to support GDP growth in 2026, but it then becomes a drag on growth in later years when more of the spending cuts take effect.

谢谢聆听。

Thanks for listening.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请在你收听的平台为我们留下评价，并与朋友或同事分享你对市场的看法。

If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

上述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能并不适合

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for

您。

you.