Can Stock Momentum Hold Up?

欢迎来到《市场观点》。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利首席信息官兼美国股票策略主管。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天在这期播客里，我会聊聊，为什么在股市已经涨了这么一大波之后，我依然看多。

Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing why I remain bullish even after such a strong run-in stocks.

现在是纽约时间4月27日星期一上午11点30分，咱们直接开聊。

It's Monday, April 27 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

从技术面来看，美国股市刚刚经历了一次历史上最惊人的反弹。

The US equity market just experienced one of the most dramatic bounces in history from a technical standpoint.

短短十二天，就从严重超卖直接冲到了严重超买。

It went from oversold to overbought territory in just twelve days.

根据我们跟各方的交流，很多人对股市短期内的走势都持谨慎态度。

Based on our conversations, the speed of this move has left some to express caution about the near term path of equities.

但这其实挺正常的。

But that's the way it usually works.

市场一旦决定行动，可不会等任何人。

The market waits for no one once it decides to move on.

在我们看来，这感觉跟去年一模一样。

From our perspective, this feels like last year.

很多投资者现在又在琢磨大宗商品涨价对通胀的滞后影响，就像去年还在琢磨关税上调的后果一样。

Many investors are contemplating the lagging impacts of higher commodity prices on inflation, just like they were thinking through the effects of higher tariff rates a year ago.

很多公司迟早会感受到这些成本传导的冲击。

Many companies will feel the downstream impacts on a lagging basis.

但我们觉得，股市和很多板块已经跌得够狠，把这些担忧都消化得差不多了。

But we believe equity indices and many subgroups already suffered enough damage to account for these concerns.

换句话说，股市不是在无视风险——而是早就把风险价格算进去了。

In other words, the equity market isn't simply looking past the risks it already priced them.

别忘了，现在的盈利前景强多了，未来12个月的盈利增速快逼近25%，而去年才9%左右。

Take into consideration that the earnings picture is much stronger today, with forward twelve month earnings growth approaching 25% versus just 9% a year ago.

而且，还是有不少评论员在说，增长就靠那么几只股票撑着。

As well, we still hear many commentators suggesting that growth is only coming from a handful of stocks.

从数学上讲，这个观点对权重集中的标普500确实成立，但忽略了中等公司和小盘股的未来盈利增速也已经双双进入两位数。

While mathematically that's a fair point for the top heavy S and P 500, it doesn't acknowledge that forward earnings growth for the median company and for small caps is also well into the double digits.

这种节奏跟过去三四年经济轮动衰退时完全不一样。

This cadence is very different from the prior three to four years when the economy was experiencing a rolling recession.

这也印证了我们一年前提出的‘渐进复苏、全面扩散’这个观点。

It also supports our rolling recovery and broadening thesis that we laid out a year ago.

截至目前，第一季度财报季的整体盈利超预期比例达到了10%。

So far, first quarter earnings season has delivered a 10% beat rate in aggregate.

这可是长期平均水平的两倍。

This is two times the long term average.

更重要的是，第二季度和未来十二个月的公司指引又上调了2%到3%。

More importantly, second quarter and forward twelve month company guidance have increased by an additional 2% to 3%.

除了盈利超预期和指引，我们还在关注资本开支指引和定价能力的迹象。

Besides earnings beat rates and guidance, we're also watching CapEx guidance and signs of pricing power.

我们早在2026年初就认为，资本开支周期正在加速，背后有三大顺风在推动。

We entered 2026 with a view that the CapEx cycle was gaining momentum, thanks to three tailwinds.

首先，企业盈利和现金流强劲，这两者通常和资本支出密切相关。

First, strong earnings and cash flow, which tend to correlate with CapEx.

其次，《大美法案》提供的税收激励。

Second, tax incentives from the Big Beautiful Bill.

第三，人工智能建设热潮和制造业回流带来的强劲需求。

And third, strong demand from the AI build out and reshoring of manufacturing.

目前来看，这些迹象都挺积极的，标普500中位数公司的资本支出增速接近10%，我们的因子分析也持续显示，市场正在奖励高资本支出的企业。

Early indications on this front are supportive, with a median stock CapEx growth running almost 10% and our factor work continuing to show that the market is rewarding high CapEx.

随着本季度推进，尤其是这周超大规模云服务商即将公布财报，这些趋势能不能持续就特别关键。

It's important to see these trends continue as the quarter progresses, especially this week when the hyperscalers are scheduled to report.

另外，考虑到伊朗战争可能带来的下游成本压力，我们希望看到企业的定价能力和收入韧性能继续保持。

Another point, given potential downstream cost headwinds from the Iran war, we want to see pricing power and top line durability persist.

目前这方面的早期数据也挺给力，标普500的销售额超预期幅度远高于历史均值，接近2%。

Early indications here are also supportive, with sales surprise for the S and P 500 running well above average and close to 2%.

最后，就像我们之前播客里提到的，市场最后还得跨过一道坎——美联储最近对油价上涨态度转鹰，再加上领导层要从杰伊·鲍威尔换到新任主席凯文·沃什。

Finally, as noted on prior podcasts, one of the last hurdles for the market to overcome was the Fed's recent hawkish pivot on higher oil prices and the transition of its leadership from Jay Powell to Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

这周，凯文·沃什在参议院露面了。

This past week, Kevin Warsh appeared in front of the Senate.

他对外释放了一些谨慎信号，说短期降息的风险还没消除。

He signaled some caution on near term rate cuts, noting that the inflation risks are not resolved.

他还重申了自己一贯的观点，批评美联储过去太爱用资产负债表去干预市场和经济。

He also reiterated his well established criticism of the Fed's historic willingness to intervene in markets and the economy too aggressively with its balance sheet.

每次美联储主席更替，市场都需要一段适应期，得摸清新主席的底线，琢磨他说话的风格。

Every Fed chair transition typically requires a learning period for the markets where they test a new chair's resolve and figure out how to interpret his or her communication style.

这次也不会例外，短期内可能因为债市波动加剧或融资市场承压，出现一些价格回调。

This time should be no different and could lead to some corrective price action in the near term caused by short spikes in bond volatility or stress in funding markets.

在我看来，最终财长和美联储还是能稳住局面，牛市根基不会动摇。

In my view, the Treasury and Fed will be able to manage these risks in the end, leaving the bull market intact.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望今天的分享对你有帮助。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎给我们留个评价，说说你的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果你觉得这些市场分析有帮助，别忘了推荐给朋友或同事试试。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

以上内容仅供参考，基于发布时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不构成任何投资建议或要约，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

内容未考虑您的个人财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.