Comeback for Europe’s Bull Market?

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Welcome to thoughts on the markets.

我是保罗·沃尔什，摩根士丹利欧洲研究产品负责人。

I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's head of research product here in Europe.

我是玛丽娜·扎沃洛克，摩根士丹利欧洲股票策略主管。

And I'm Marina Zavolock, chief European equity strategist.

今天我们要探讨的是，欧洲股市是否还有进一步扩散上涨的空间，市场正在评估美伊潜在协议以及霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的影响。

And today, we're looking at whether European equities have more room to broaden as markets assess the implications of a potential US Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait Of Hormuz.

今天是6月29日，星期一，伦敦时间上午10点。

It's Monday, June 29 at 10AM in London.

玛丽娜，每次有你来做客都特别棒。

Marina, it's always great having you on.

对我们的听众来说，我想你们会感兴趣的是，今年至今欧洲市场的表现已经追平了标普500。

And for our listeners out there, I think they'd be interested to hear that if we look at Europe's performance year to date, it's now on a par to the S and P.

两个指数今年至今的涨幅都达到了大约78%。

So both indices are up somewhere between 78% year to date.

所以欧洲市场正从冲突低点逐步复苏。

So Europe is starting to stage something of a comeback from the conflict lows.

那是什么推动了这一趋势呢？

And so what's driving this?

我们是不是又看到资金重新流入欧洲了？

And are we beginning to see inflows into Europe again?

我来分两部分回答这个问题。

So I'm gonna give a two part answer to this.

首先，欧洲的市场结构和美国有很多相似之处。

Firstly, Europe has a lot of the same exposure as The U.

美国。

S.

这正是其中一个原因。

So that is part of the reason.

我知道大家总觉得欧洲科技股不多，但其实我们也有不少科技敞口。

I know that Europe has this kind of reputation for not having a lot of tech exposure, but we do have tech exposure.

确实有。

Do.

但没有美国那么高。

Not to the same degree as The U.

我来给你看些具体数据。

S, but let me just give you some numbers here.

欧洲有几个行业深度参与了人工智能资本支出的热潮。

So we have a number of sectors heavily exposed to the AI CapEx boom.

其中最主要的是半导体行业，还有科技硬件、资本品以及金属矿业，特别是铜，也和人工智能密切相关。

These are led primarily by the semis sector in Europe, tech hardware, cap goods and metals and mining, specifically copper has a link to AI as well.

这些行业目前加起来约占我们指数权重的15%左右。

And those sectors, let's say roughly they make up at this point about 15% weight of our index.

而今年到目前为止，它们的表现几乎和美国市场持平。

And if you look at that year to date performance that's on par with The U.

这其中将近90%的涨幅都来自这些行业。

S, almost 90% of it is made up from these sectors.

对。

Yes.

这些板块的上涨幅度，和美国许多与AI相关的领域几乎一样强劲。

So these sectors have moved just as aggressively as many of the AI pockets within The US.

这个答案和美国的情况差不多。

That's the answer that's kind of similar to The US.

不过，另一个不太一样的情况是，这些年我们偶尔也会遇到，但今年早些时候我们经历了一次非常明显的波动。

The answer that's a bit different is that we get from time to time over the years actually, but we had a very big one earlier this year.

欧洲这边时不时会掀起一波关注热潮，因为投资者开始考虑分散投资。

We get these waves of interest in Europe because investors start to think about diversification.

范围扩大。

The broadening.

对。

Yes.

所以，投资者最近因为伊朗和美国的局势，开始推动投资范围的扩大。

So they, they, and we've called for broadening recently on the back of this Iran, U.

对。

S.

MOU确实是原因之一，但这次广泛配置还有其他推动因素。

MOU, but, but this broadening has other drivers as well.

当时我们感受到这波对分散投资的兴趣，今年早些时候看到资金流入欧洲。

So when we felt this, wave of interest in diversification and we saw the flows coming into Europe earlier this year.

最初是因为七巨头股价波动、陷入盘整。

The driver was initially because the Mag7 was kind of going choppy and sideways.

这促使资金从七巨头流出，转向标普等权重指数，而这类轮动通常也利好欧洲市场。

So that just drove diversification out of Mag7 and into equal weighted S and P, but that also always benefits Europe or tends to benefit Europe.

此外，今年早些时候还有一波对实物资产的兴趣，而欧洲在实物资产上的配置比例高于美国。

But also we had this wave of interest in real assets earlier this year, and Europe has a higher share of real assets than The US.

现在，我感觉到新一轮的广泛配置兴趣正在回升。

Now at this moment, I am sensing that we are getting that pickup in broadening interest.

再次根据我与投资者的交流，MOU确实是最初的触发点。

Once again, from my feedback with investors, you had this MOU, which was the initial trigger.

油价整体来看是在下跌的。

Have oil prices broadly, they're falling.

这一点也有帮助。

That's helpful as well.

但我觉得，眼下推动这种分散投资兴趣的最主要因素，其实是人工智能领域的波动加剧。

But I think the biggest driver of what's driving this diversification interest at this moment is actually the volatility that we're seeing in the AI complex.

我最近从那些原本专注美国市场、现在又回流到欧洲的投资者那里听到的反馈是：

What I, what a lot of the feedback I'm getting these days from investors that are coming back to Europe after focusing primarily on The U.

S.

S.

我的投资组合里已经有不少人工智能资产了。

Is look, I have a lot of AI in my portfolio.

我很看好人工智能这一块。

I like my AI exposure.

我并不打算抛售或减仓，但确实有点担心最近的波动，所以想适当分散一下风险。

I'm not looking to get rid of it or to sell it, But incrementally, I'm a little bit worried about this volatility and I'm looking to broaden my exposure.

在欧洲，你觉得哪些领域能帮我分散当前这种波动风险？

What do you like in Europe to help me diversify away from this kind of volatility that we're seeing now?

这正好引出了我的第二个问题，马丽娜。今年到目前为止，欧洲市场一直跟标普500齐头并进，大家最关心的是这种相对表现能不能持续。

And I think that's a great segue Marina to my second question, because with Europe having really kept pace with the S and P year to date, the question that really is going to be asked is the sustainability of that relative performance.

现在欧洲的经济增速整体偏低，加上最近通胀数据反复，市场还在担心利率会进一步上调。

And when we think about a backdrop here in Europe of pretty low economic growth, The market continues to be worried about rate hikes given recent inflationary dynamics.

正如你提到的，科技板块在欧洲也发挥了关键作用，推动了市场上涨。

And as you've, articulated there, tech has played a very significant role here in Europe as well in terms of driving markets higher.

你之前已经提过几次了，但这种势头到底能维持多久？

So you've alluded to it in a few of your comments already, but how sustainable do we see this as being?

说实话，这得看人工智能的发展情况。

It depends on AI, to be honest with you.

如果AI像今年年初那样迅猛上涨，那欧洲因为自身结构限制，很难跑赢市场。

So if AI starts to really move up at an aggressive pace, like it was earlier this year, then it's hard for Europe to outperform given our exposure.

但如果AI涨得更稳一些，欧洲反而有机会表现得非常好。

But if that starts to move up at a more moderate pace, Europe has a chance to do very well.

我觉得大家对欧洲股票有很多误解，抛开AI不谈，其实欧洲股市有不少亮点。

I think there's a lot of misperceptions when it comes to European equities and outside of AI, actually there's quite a lot of strength.

第一个误解，你刚才也提到了，就是大家总觉得，看看我们的PMI，再看看我们的GDP增速。

So misperception one, you've mentioned it, which is basically, oh, look at our PMIs, look at our GDP growth.

那为什么还要配置欧洲股票呢？

Why bother with European equities?

我觉得这大概是某些美国投资者会有的想法。

I think this is maybe what some U.

美国。

S.

投资者可能会这么想，但就像在美国一样。

Investors may think, but just like in The U.

美国。

S.

股市，甚至欧洲的股市，反映的并不是经济基本面。

The equities market and maybe even more so the equities market in Europe, it is not the economy.

上周末我们刚发布了最新的全球敞口报告，摩根士丹利已经迭代了这个报告整整29次。

So we just published our global exposure guide over, over this past weekend, which Morgan Stanley has been running 29 iterations of this guide.

欧洲公司对欧洲本土市场的收入依赖，已经降到几十年来的最低水平。

Europe's exposure to Europe is pretty much at historical lows over decades.

现在欧洲企业的收入中，只有45%来自欧洲本地，其余部分都高度全球化。

Europe's exposure to Europe as a percent of revenues is now 45% of revenues is, is European exposed.

剩下的这部分，包括了大量美国市场。

The rest is very global, including The U.

在这45%的本土收入里，很多都来自银行和一些防御性行业。

S.

真正受欧洲央行加息影响、可能面临盈利下调的消费类板块，占比其实非常小。

Of that 45% domestic, a lot of that is banks, some defensive sectors.

所以很多人可能没想到，今年欧洲市场的整体盈利预期增长率超过16%。

Only a very small sliver is actually consumer oriented sectors that would see earnings downgrades on the back of ECB hiking, for So I think people may also be surprised to know that consensus earnings growth for Europe this year is over 16%.

这个增长其实相当强劲。

It's really healthy.

我知道美国超过20%，但欧洲也超过了16%。

I know The US over 20, but Europe is over 16%.

那种说法，比如能源短缺会导致企业盈利下滑，其实是个误解。

These kinds of ideas of, oh, you know, we have a shortage of energy and therefore our earnings are going to be down.

只要油价不暴涨到一百五左右，保持在七到九十美元的合理区间，对欧洲反而是好事，因为我们手上有不少实体资产。

They're misperceptions because actually as long as oil doesn't spike to, I don't know, 150, if it stays within a healthy range, call it 70 to 90, that's actually very good environment for Europe because we have a lot of real assets.

银行受益于通胀上升，因为它们靠收益率曲线的斜率赚钱。

We have the banks which benefit from higher inflation because they trade on the steepness of the curve.

而且我们还涉足了一些人工智能领域。

And we have some AI exposure.

把这三块加起来，全都是通胀受益型的，加起来占了我们盈利的六成。

If you add up those three things, which all benefit from inflation, that's 60% of our earnings pie.

所以欧洲的实际表现其实非常好。

Hence, Europe's actually doing really well.

我还想再提一点。

And I'll just mention one other thing.

今年早些时候，我们终于摆脱了长期以来相对于美国的结构性折价区间。

Earlier this year, we broke out of a structural downtrend discount, that range that we were trading in versus The U.

美国

S.

过去将近十年，欧洲的估值折价一直在持续扩大。

So for almost ten years, Europe's discount was just going wider and wider and wider and wider.

从今年1月1日起，按可比口径——行业中性、剔除七巨头后——我们突破了这个长期下行趋势，而且折价差距还在持续收窄。

And as of January first this year on a like for like basis, so sector neutral, excluding Mag7, we broke out of that structural downtrend and we keep seeing a narrowing.

所以如果你打算分散投资，欧洲确实很值得考虑，这里既有估值折价，又有价值股，还有增长机会。

So if you're gonna broaden, it actually makes a lot of sense to look at Europe where we have these discounts and we have value and we have growth.

是的。

Yeah.

所以关键在于，欧洲相对于美国的估值折价。

So the point there being the relative valuation discount of Europe to The U.

美国

S.

最近这一段时间，这个差距其实又缩小了一点。

Has been actually closing a little bit more recently.

我这边最后一个问题。

Final question from my side.

你最近刚刚更新了行业模型，对吧？

You have obviously recently refreshed your sector model.

今天我们聊到了市场广度的扩大。

We have talked about the broadening in our conversation today.

你给客户们推荐的行业配置倾向是怎样的？

What are you advocating to your clients out there in terms of relative sector preferences?

是的，我们用的是一个数据驱动的模型。

Yeah, so we run a data driven model.

简单说一下，我们会看盈利预期的调整、市场广度，这些在欧洲特别有效，能提前预示未来的盈利表现。

Just briefly, we look at things like earnings revisions, breadth works really well as a leading indicator in Europe, a leading indicator for future earnings as well.

还有市场一致预期的目标价调整、广度，以及资产负债表的相关指标。

Consensus price target revisions, breadth, balance sheet measures.

我们会看很多不同的因素，比如人工智能的关联度，我现在直接告诉你我们模型里排名靠前的几个板块。

We look at a number of different things, AI exposure, and basically I'll just give you the top sectors in our model now.

半导体排第一，金属和矿业排第二，主要是铜带动的。

Semis number one, metals and mining number two, led by copper.

银行排第三，对我来说，银行是个重要的分散风险的选择。

Banks number three, I think banks for me, it's a key diversification play.

没错。

Yes.

关键优势在于，它们市盈率只有10倍，但分红、股票回购和股息都很高，盈利预期上调幅度在个位数出头，而且在人工智能应用上走在前列，资本品领域的回报已经开始显现，排第四的也是受人工智能驱动的板块。

A big differentiator and trading on 10 times PE with very high distributions, buybacks and dividends, low teens earnings growth upgrades, front of the line on AI adoption and seeing that ROI coming through cap goods, number four, that's also led by AI exposure.

对。

Yep.

最后提一下，公用事业板块我们也超配。

And then I'll just mention lastly, utilities is an overweight as well.

这个板块也跟人工智能有点关系，但目前持仓比例很低，远远落后于美国市场的趋势。

That's also a little bit AI linked, but very, very under owned lagging the trends we've seen in The U.

对。

S.

而且从更广的角度看，这些领域也有不少积极因素，因为可再生能源的需求正在回升。

And broader based in terms of the positives there because we also have this drive for renewables, which is coming back.

玛丽娜，像往常一样，我们非常重视你的见解。

Marina, as always, we value your insights highly.

一如既往，感谢你抽出时间交流。

Thanks as always for taking the time to talk.

和你聊得很愉快，保罗。

Great speaking with you, Paul.

也感谢各位收听。

And thanks for listening.

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