美国会瞄准更弱的美元吗？

欢迎来到《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是詹姆斯·劳德，摩根士丹利全球外汇与新兴市场策略主管。

I'm James Lord, global head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley.

我是塞思·卡彭特，摩根士丹利全球首席经济学家兼宏观研究主管。

And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist and head of macro research.

今天，我们将讨论美国货币政策，以及近期关于干预和美联储提名的新闻是否改变了美元的前景。

Today, we're talking about US currency policy and whether recent news on intervention and nominations to the Fed change anything for the outlook of the dollar.

今天是2月19日，星期四，伦敦时间下午3点。

It's Thursday, February 19 at 3PM in London.

过去几周，外汇市场可谓波澜起伏。

So it's been an interesting few weeks in currency markets.

市场上出现了大量抛售美元的行为。

Plenty of dollar selling going on.

但随后我们得知，凯文·沃尔什将被提名为美联储理事会主席，这一消息促使美元重新走强，提醒所有人货币政策和央行政策依然至关重要。

But then we got news that Kevin Walsh is gonna be nominated to chair of the board of governors, and that sent the dollar back higher, reminding everybody that monetary policy and central bank policy still matter.

因此，在美元兑日元汇率受到干预后，投资者开始讨论美国是否正开始有意推动货币走弱。

So in the aftermath of the dollar yen rate check, investors started to discuss whether or not The US might be starting to target a weaker currency.

不仅仅是对弱势美元持容忍态度，而是明确以弱势美元为目标，这 presumably 意味着背离了贝森部长所提及的强势美元政策。

Not just be comfortable with a weaker currency, but actually explicitly target a weaker currency, which would presumably be a shift away from the strong dollar policy that secretary Besson referenced.

那么，你的理解是什么？

So what is your understanding?

你认为强势美元政策究竟意味着什么？

What do you think the strong dollar policy actually means?

强势美元政策是一个说法，一个术语，一个长期以来许多财政部长都使用过的概念。

Strong dollar policy, that's a phrase, that's a term, it's a concept that lots of secretaries of the treasury have used for a long time.

我特别指出财政部长，因为至少在近几十年来，华盛顿的标准做法是：汇率政策属于财政部的职责，而非央行，这一点一直很重要。

And I specifically point to the secretary of the treasury because, at least in the recent couple of decades, there has been in standard Washington DC approach to things a strong dichotomy that currency policy is the policy of the treasury department, not of the central bank, and that's always been important.

我记得我在财政部工作时，这仍是财政部长发言要点的一部分。

I remember when I was working at the treasury department, that was still part of the talking points that the secretary used.

然而，你也会听到财政部长说，汇率应当由市场决定。

However, you also hear secretaries of the treasury say that exchange rates should be market determined.

这是其中的关键部分。

That that's a key part of it.

例如，在美国和中国之间的反复博弈中，人们广泛讨论中国政府是否在调整或操纵其货币价值，同时也有呼声认为汇率应由市场决定。

And with the back and forth between The US and China, for example, there was a lot of discussion was the Chinese government adjusting or manipulating the value of their currency, and there was a push that currencies should be market determined.

因此，如果你同时考虑这两点：一方面大力推动美元走强，另一方面大力主张汇率应由市场决定，你很快就会发现其中存在某种智力上的矛盾。

And so if you think about those two things at the same time, pushing really hard that the dollar should be strong, pushing really hard that currencies should be market determined, you start to very quickly run into a bit of an intellectual tension.

我认为这一切都是有意为之的。

And I think all of that is pretty intentional.

这意味着什么？

What does it mean?

这意味着'强美元政策'并没有一个清晰明确的定义。

It means that there's no single clear definition of strong dollar policy.

这有点取决于观察者的视角。

It's a little bit of the eye of the beholder.

这是一种承认，即美元在全球市场中扮演着明确而关键的角色，而这对美国是有利的。

It's an acknowledgment that the dollar plays a clear key role in global markets, and it's good for The US for that to happen.

这传统上一直是它的含义，但它并不意味着相对于任何其他货币或货币篮子的特定数值。

That's traditionally been what it means, but it has not meant a specific number relative to any other currency or any basket of currency.

它也不意味着基于某种长期理论公允价值的特定数值。

It has not meant a specific value based on some sort of long run theoretical fair value.

它一直是一个非常模糊的概念，而且是故意如此模糊的。

It is always meant to be a very vague, deliberately so, very vague concept.

因此，在这种对强势美元政策的理解下，这种模糊性显然为财政部在美元兑日元汇率上进行某种干预留下了空间，而这仍然完全符合这一强势美元政策的定义。

So in that version of what the strong dollar policy means, presumably, the sort of ambiguity still leaves space for the treasury to conduct some kind of intervention in dollar yen if they wanted to, and that would still be very much consistent with that definition of the strong dollar policy.

我心中也一直怀疑，强势美元政策是否与美元的全球角色及其赋予财政部在制裁政策和其他控制美元流动领域的外交权力有关，这为美国政府提供了一些杠杆。

I also, in the back of my head, always wonder whether the strong dollar policy has anything to do with the dollar's global role and sort of foreign policy power that that gives the treasury in sanctions policy and in other areas where they can control dollar flows and so on, and that gives the US government some leverage.

它使它们能够在外交政策中展现实力。

It allows them to project strength in foreign policy.

这与传统意义上的强势美元政策有关吗？

Is that anything to do with the traditional versions of the strong policy?

绝对有关。

Absolutely.

我认为所有这些都与之密切相关，但也部分解释了为什么强美元政策永远不可能有一个清晰具体的数值定义。

I think all of that is part and parcel to it, but it also helps to explain a little bit of why there's never gonna be a very crisp, specific numerical definition of what a strong dollar policy is.

因此，首先我认为，关于干预的讨论在很多方面是一致的，尤其是当你采用更宽泛的强美元定义时，即美元是全球金融市场和全球贸易中最重要或最关键的货币。

So first and foremost, I think the discussion of intervention, I think it is in lots of ways consistent, especially if you have that more expansive definition of strong dollar, I e, the currency that's very important or most important in global financial markets and in global trade.

因此，在这方面，干预和强美元政策可以同时存在。

So I think in that regard, you could have both the intervention and the strong dollar at the same time.

不过，我要补充的是，政府在这一点上并没有一个清晰、一致的看法，具体体现在以下方面。

I will add, though, that the administration has not had a clear, consistent view in this regard in the following very specific sense.

当现任美联储主席梅林担任经济顾问委员会主席时，他曾于该委员会网站上发表一篇文章，指出美元的储备货币地位给美国带来了某些不利影响，特别是在贸易流动等方面。

When now governor Merrin was chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, he penned a piece on the Council of Economics website that said that the reserve currency status of the dollar had brought with it some adverse effects on The US and in terms of what happened in terms of trade flows and that sort of things.

因此，这一届政府也试图为货币政策增加更多细微差别，提出这样一个观点：从外汇市场角度而言，美元过强——即美元相对于其他货币估值过高——可能加剧了他们试图遏制的贸易逆差。

So, again, this administration has also tried to find ways to increase the nuance about what the currency policy is and and putting forward the idea that too strong of a dollar in the FX sense, in the sense that you and your colleagues in FX markets would think about this a high valuation of the dollar relative to other currencies could have contributed to these trade deficits that they're trying to push back against.

因此，我认为我们从之前那种宽泛而或许模糊的强美元定义，转向了一个更加模糊的阶段，其中可能存在其他影响美元价值的动机。

So I would say we went from the previous broad, perhaps vague definition of strong dollar, and now we're in an even murkier regime where there could be other motivations for changing the value of the dollar.

所以，詹姆斯，这是我们对美联储的看法，但让我回到你这边，因为目前同时存在多种不同的力量。

So, James, that's been our view in terms of the Fed, but let me come back to you because there are lots of different forces going on at the same time.

央行显然是一个重要因素，但只是众多因素中的一个。

The central bank is clearly an important one, but it's only one factor among many.

所以，如果你考虑美元在未来三个月、六个月，甚至未来一年的走势，你和你的团队在关注哪些方面？

So if you think about where the dollar is likely to go over the next three months, over the next six months, maybe over the next year, what is it that you and your team are looking for?

客户向你们提出的问题主要集中在哪些地方？

Where are the questions that you're getting from clients?

是的。

Yeah.

所以当我们今年年初开始时，我们对美元持看跌观点。

So when we came into the start of this year, we did have a bearish view on the dollar.

我认为驱动因素可以分为两个部分。

I would say that the drivers of it, we split up into two components.

第一部分是更多关于增长预期和我们对美联储举措的常规分析。

The first component was a lot more of the conventional stuff about growth expectations, what we see the Fed doing.

另一部分则是我们所谓的风险溢价，也就是那些更非传统的催化剂，它们可能推动美元波动——正如我们在去年第二季度看到的，当解放日关税宣布时，美元的走弱幅度远超利率差异所暗示的水平。

And then there was another component to it where what we define as risk premia, I suppose, the more unconventional catalysts that can push the dollar around as we saw come very much to market attention during the second quarter of last year when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced, and the dollar weakened far in excess of what rate differentials would imply.

因此，我认为今年到目前为止，我们所看到的美元走势——美元的走弱——主要由第二个因素驱动，即我们所说的风险溢价。

And so I would say so far this year, the majority of the dollar move that we've seen, the weakening in the dollar that we've seen, has been driven by that second component, what we call risk premia.

投资者们一直在讨论美国对格陵兰的政策，而最近，人们又开始围绕美元兑日元汇率干预展开讨论。

And the conversations that investors have been having about US policy towards Greenland, and then more recently, the conversations that people have been having around FX intervention following the dollar yen rate check.

这类事件一直推动着汇率走势，直到凯文·沃尔什的提名公布为止。

These sorts of things have been really driving the currency up until when the Kevin Walsh nomination was announced.

当我们审视当前美元中所体现的风险溢价程度时，它几乎与去年第二季度的水平相当，也就是说，这个水平相当高。

When we look at the extent of the risk premia that we see in the dollar now, it is pretty close to the levels that we saw in the second quarter of last year, which is to say, it's pretty big.

如果我们仅考虑利率差异的影响，且过去一年中所有这些风险溢价因素都未发生，欧元兑美元汇率可能会更接近1.1。

Eurodollar would probably be closer to 1.1 if we were just thinking about the impact of rate differentials, and none of this risk premia stuff over the past year had materialized.

这显然是一个巨大的差距，我认为目前这个差距不太可能进一步扩大，尤其是现在市场注意力已更多地集中在凯文·沃尔什对市场和美元的影响上。

That's obviously a very big gap, and I think for now, that gap probably isn't going to widen much further, particularly now that market attention is much more focused on the impact that Kevin Walsh will have on markets and the dollar.

此外，欧洲央行和英国央行也都释放了降息的信号。

We also have, you know, the ECB and the Bank of England house call for those two central banks is for them to be cutting rates.

这也可能对这些货币相对于美元形成一定的下行压力。

That could also put some downward pressure on those currencies relative to the dollar.

所以所有这些都说明，对于G10货币中的主要货币，比如英镑和欧元兑美元，现在可能并不是推动美元走弱的时机。

So all of that is to say, for some of the major currencies within the G10 space, like Sterling, like Euro against the dollar, this probably isn't the time to be pushing a weaker dollar.

但我认为还有一些其他货币在短期内，甚至在长期内仍有一定机会，那就是新兴市场货币。

But I think there are some other currencies which still have some opportunity in the short term, but also over the longer run as well, and that's really in emerging markets.

所有这些都表明，新兴市场货币有着坚实的货币政策锚定。

All of that is to say, think there is a strong monetary policy anchor for emerging market currencies.

这一资产类别长期以来一直被低估，我们认为在短期和中期都还有更大的上涨空间。

This is an asset class that has been underinvested in for some time, and we do think that there are more gains there in the short term and over the medium term as well.

关于这个话题，詹姆斯，你同意吗？

So on that topic, James, would you then agree?

如果我考虑一些新兴市场央行，比如巴西央行，当美元贬值、本币升值时，这可能会带来一些变化，使央行能够比原本更宽松地政策。

So if I think about some of the EM central banks, think about Banco, think about the BCB, where the dollar falling in value, their currency gaining in value, that could actually have a couple things go on to allow the central bank maybe to ease more than they would have otherwise.

首先，从进口通胀的角度看，本币相对走强可能有助于降低通胀。

One, in terms of imported inflation, their currency strengthening on a relative basis probably helps with a bit lower inflation.

其次，许多新兴市场央行在当前地缘政治动荡时期，必须担心捍卫本币，而你提到整体波动性有所降低。

And secondly, a lot of EM central banks have to worry a bit about defending their currency, especially in a volatile geopolitical time, and you were pointing to sort of lower volatility more broadly.

所以，这是否是一种强化趋势？如果美元略微走弱，尤其是对新兴市场货币而言，这将为央行提供更多的外部稳定性，使它们能够专注于国内政策目标，这也可能导致国内利率进一步下调，对投资者有利。

So is this sort of a reinforcing trend perhaps where if the dollar is coming down a little bit, especially against EM currencies, it allows more external stability for the central banks, allowing them to just focus on their domestic mandates, which could also lead to a further reduction in their domestic rates, which might be good for investors.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这有一定道理。

I think there's something to that.

鉴于新兴市场货币的强势，随着时间推移，如果国内条件允许，它们应有更多空间进行宽松政策。

Given the strength of emerging market currencies, there should be over time more space for them to ease if the domestic conditions warrant it.

但到目前为止，我们并没有看到许多新兴市场央行利用这一机会。

But so far, we're not really seeing many EM central banks taking advantage of that opportunity.

许多新兴市场国家普遍存在一种普遍模式：它们保持相当保守，比市场普遍预期更为鹰派，这支撑了它们的货币。

There is a sort of general pattern with a lot of EMs that they're staying pretty conservative and more hawkish than I think what markets have generally been expecting, and that's been supporting their currencies.

我认为值得思考一下，如果情况反过来，它们开始更快地推动货币宽松，会发生什么。

I think it's interesting to think about what would happen if they're on the flip side, what would happen if they did start to push monetary easing at a faster pace.

我确信，在那些它们采取宽松政策的日子里，货币会略微走弱。

I'm sure on the days where that happens, the currencies would weaken a little bit.

然而，如果市场整体风险偏好积极，投资者希望配置新兴市场资产，那么最终可能发生的情况是，资产管理人会因预期央行政策路径将长期走低而买入更多债券，从而带来更多的资本流入，并抵消货币政策更宽松立场对货币造成的短期负面影响。

However, if the market backdrop is generally constructive on risk and investors want to have exposure to EM, then what could ultimately happen is that asset managers will simply buy more bonds as they price in a lower path for central bank policy over time, and that causes more capital inflows, and that overwhelms the knee jerk effect from the more dovish stance of monetary policy on the currency.

你会看到更多长期债券资金流入市场，这有助于支撑他们的货币。

You get sort of more duration flows coming into the market, and that helps their currency.

所以，是的，如果新兴市场央行显著转向更宽松的政策，可能会带来短期波动，但假设全球仍处于低波动环境，我会将这些视为买入机会。

So yes, if EM central banks push back with more dovish policy significantly, it could pose some short term volatility, but assuming we remain in low vol environment globally, I would use those as buying opportunities.

谢谢，詹姆斯。

Thanks James.

能和你一起参加这个节目真是太好了。

It's been great being on the show with you.

感谢你邀请我，希望未来有机会能再次回来和你一起交流。

Thank you for inviting me and I hope to be able to come back and join you at some point in the future if you'll have me.

谢谢你，塞思，抽出时间来谈话。

Thank you, Seth, for making the time to talk.

也感谢所有收听的朋友们，感谢你们的聆听。

And to all you listening, thank you for lending us your ears.

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