数据中心的政治博弈

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Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是摩根士丹利公共政策研究主管阿丽安娜·萨尔瓦托雷。

I'm Ariana Salvatore, head of public policy research at Morgan Stanley.

今天我要谈的是，尽管政治上的反对声音有所增加，我们为何仍预期人工智能领域的资本支出保持强劲。

Today, I'll be talking about why we still expect robust AI capital spending in spite of some rising political pushback.

现在是纽约时间7月23日，星期四上午10点。

It's Thursday, July 23 at 10AM in New York.

我们的听众应该不会感到意外，数据中心面临的阻力——我们一直关注的话题——最近越来越强烈。

It should be no surprise to our listeners that data center pushback, a topic that we've been following for some time, has been growing louder.

但到了2026年，这种阻力明显加剧了。

But in 2026, it's accelerated meaningfully.

我们跟踪的数据表明，2025年有大约1560亿美元的项目被取消或推迟。

Data we track suggests that an estimated a $156,000,000,000 of projects were canceled or delayed in 2025.

仅今年第一季度，我们就看到了几乎同等规模的数字。

This year alone in just the first quarter, we've seen almost that same exact number.

反对声音来自多个方面。

The opposition is coming from several directions.

社区担心电费上涨、用水带来的环境压力，以及大规模建设对当地生活品质的影响。

Communities are raising concerns about rising electricity bills, environmental pressures related to water use, and the local quality of life effects of large scale construction.

但政界两党议员也在施压。

But it's also coming from lawmakers across the aisle.

无论是民主党还是共和党主导的州议会，都在推动这类政策。

State legislatures with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been advancing this type of policy.

与此同时，我们预测今年仅人工智能资本支出就接近一万亿美元，这正成为宏观经济前景中越来越关键的部分。

At the same time, we're forecasting a little less than a trillion dollars of AI CapEx this year alone, and we think it's an increasingly important component of the macroeconomic growth outlook.

那我们该怎么调和这个矛盾呢？

So how do we square that circle?

首先，也是最重要的一点，我们认为这主要是供给端的风险，而不是需求端的问题。

First and most importantly, we think this is primarily a supply side risk rather than a demand side one.

我们并不认为这种抵制会显著降低对算力需求的预期。

We don't expect the backlash to materially reduce projections for compute demand.

相反，这种需求与行业新增产能之间的差距可能会扩大，比如审批延迟、电网接入受限，以及本地的反对声音。

Instead, it could widen the gap between that demand and the industry's ability to bring new capacity online through things like permitting delays, grid interconnection constraints, and local opposition.

尽管政治和基础设施环境变得更加复杂，由布莱恩·诺瓦克带领的互联网团队依然看好人工智能领域的资本支出。

Despite that more difficult political and infrastructure environment, our Internet team, led by Brian Nowak, remains constructive on AI capital spending.

我们对人工智能总投资的总体预测，包括新兴云服务商在内，到2026年将达到约8770亿美元。

Our broader thematic estimate for total AI CapEx, including the neo cloud providers, stands at approximately $877,000,000,000 in 2026.

而且我们认为，未来实际支出还有可能进一步上升。

And we actually see risks skewed even higher from here.

既然建设数据中心的环境越来越困难，为什么投资还在持续增加呢？

So why is spending still increasing as the environment for building data centers becomes more challenging?

这背后有几个原因。

There are a few reasons.

首先，人工智能生态系统依然受到算力的制约。

First, the AI ecosystem remains compute constrained.

投资的紧迫性丝毫没有减弱。

The urgency to invest has not diminished.

事实上，随着2028年总统大选临近，社会反对声音和政治不确定性反而可能促使超大规模云服务商提前启动项目，我们的信贷策略团队将这种情形视为一种潜在趋势——在政治和执行风险进一步加剧前，提前释放需求。

In fact, growing social opposition and political uncertainty ahead of the twenty twenty eight presidential election may actually be encouraging hyperscalers to begin projects earlier, which our credit strategists outline as a potential scenario here, a pull forward of demand before the political and execution risk grows even louder.

其次，数据中心的建设周期正在变长。

Second, the timelines associated with data center construction have become longer.

从破土动工到正式运营，项目现在可能需要三年甚至更长时间。

From groundbreaking to operational launch, projects can now take as long as three years or even more.

这促使企业即使面临强烈的政治阻力，也愿意提前布局未来的算力产能。

That gives companies a strong incentive to begin developing future capacity well in advance, even if the political pushback is strong.

第三，底层的需求信号并没有减弱。

And third, the underlying demand signal is not slowing.

我们的分析师认为，全球每周的令牌使用量是衡量算力需求的重要指标，自今年年初以来一直在上升。

Global weekly token usage, which our analysts view as an important proxy for compute demand, has increased since early January.

它持续走高，并且今年全年都保持这一趋势。

It's rising and continues to do so throughout the course of this year.

简而言之，阻力确实存在，但它更多是在改变建设节奏，而不是阻止建设。

So in short, the pushback is real, but it appears to be reshaping the buildout rather than stopping it.

所以我们的基准预期是项目会附带条件地推进。

That's why our base case is for a conditional buildout.

我们认为项目可能会面临更严格的审查、更长的延期，以及更多涉及环境影响和社区福利的要求，但最终我们还是觉得它们能顺利落地。

We think projects are likely to face greater scrutiny, longer delays, and more requirements related to environmental impact and community benefits, but ultimately we still think they cross the finish line.

这可能意味着成本上升、开发周期拉长，以及项目地点会进一步分散，远离现有的大型数据中心市场。

That could mean higher costs, it could mean longer development timelines, and greater geographic dispersion of projects away from the largest existing data center markets.

这也可能加速向现场发电和表后发电模式的转变。

It could also accelerate the shift toward on-site and behind the meter power generation.

随着运营商寻求减少对这些漫长电网并网流程的依赖，燃料电池、涡轮机和储能技术正变得日益重要，这将为那些能将此类解决方案推向前沿的公司带来利好。

Fuel cells, turbines, and energy storage are becoming increasingly important as operators look for ways to reduce their reliance on these lengthy grid interconnection processes, and that can benefit companies that are able to bring those solutions to the forefront.

与此同时，我们的美国

Meanwhile, our U.

股

S.

策略团队在未来几个月内相对更看好超大规模运营商，而非半导体板块。

Equity Strategy Team maintains a relative preference for hyperscalers over semiconductors over the next several months.

正如你们昨天听到我们的首席投资官兼首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊所解释的，这是因为团队认为，超大规模企业已经率先反映了市场对资本支出纪律的重新关注。

As you heard our CIO and Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explain yesterday, that's because the team sees the hyperscalers as early in discounting the market's renewed focus on CapEx discipline.

综合来看，我们看到对数据中心日益增强的抵制，确实对人工智能基础设施建设的速度、成本和地理分布构成了真实风险。

Putting it all together, we see the growing pushback against data centers as representing a genuine risk to the pace, cost, and geography of the AI infrastructure buildout.

但再说一遍，这不只是需求问题，更是供给问题。

But again, this isn't just a demand story, it's a supply story.

有点反直觉的是，这些限制带来的稀缺性和不确定性，反而可能促使资本支出提前释放，而不是减少。

And somewhat paradoxically, the scarcity and the uncertainty created by these constraints could actually end up pulling capital spend forward rather than reducing it.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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