厄尔尼诺现象对市场的连锁影响

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Welcome to Thought on the Market.

我是朱莉娅·里佐，摩根士丹利的拉丁美洲农业综合企业分析师。

I'm Julia Rizzo, Latin America Agribusiness Analyst at Morgan Stanley.

今天我们来聊聊厄尔尼诺现象如何从太平洋影响到大宗商品市场、超市物价以及投资者的投资组合。

Today, how El Niro could move from The Pacific into commodity markets, grocery prices and investor portfolios.

现在是圣保罗时间8月19日星期三上午10点。

It's Wednesday, August 19 at 10AM in Sao Paulo.

你可能不会去关注巴西的降雨模式或者西非的可可种植条件，但一旦巧克力、日用品或电费涨价，你马上就能察觉到。

You may not follow rainfall patterns in Brazil or cocoa growing conditions in West Africa, but you immediately notice when chocolate, groceries or electricity cost more.

而且你能把这些现象联系起来，想到厄尔尼诺现象——这是太平洋上的一种变暖周期，会扰乱全球的气候。

And you can connect the dots to El Niu, a warming cycle in the Pacific Oceans that disrupts weather globally.

它会改变降雨分布，进而影响农作物前景、电力市场、交通运输以及通货膨胀的走势。

It changes where rain falls and shapes the outlook for crops, power markets, transportation and inflation.

目前预测，2026年第四季度出现强厄尔尼诺现象的概率高达95%。

There is now a 95% chance of a very strong El Nino in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty six.

这可能会成为七十五年有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件之一。

It could end up being among the most powerful events in more than seventy five years of record history.

时间和地点非常关键。

Timing and location matter greatly.

作物受损往往取决于在短暂的播种、开花或收获窗口期，是遭遇高温还是暴雨。

Crop damage often depends on whether heat or heavy rains arrives during a narrow planting, flowering or harvest window.

最直接的影响可能首先出现在大宗商品市场上。

The most direct effects are likely to appear first in the commodities.

糖是大宗商品中受天气条件利好影响最明显的品种之一。

Sugar is one of least of the commodities most exposed to favorable price dynamics from weather conditions.

可可的供应看起来也很紧张。

Cocoa also looks tight.

谷物的情况则更为复杂。

Grains are more complicated.

大豆需要看到南美产量净减少的证据。

Soybeans need evidence of a net South American production loss.

巴西北部的问题可能会被阿根廷或巴西南部的强劲收成所抵消。

Problems in Northern Brazil may be offset by stronger crops in Argentina or Brazil South.

玉米对时机的依赖甚至更甚。

Corn is even more dependent on timing.

近期的关键催化剂仍然是美国。

The key near term catalyst remains U.

（注：原文为 'U.S.'，此处按发音习惯译为 '美国'，若需严格对应缩写可保留 'U.S.'，但口语中通常直接说 '美国'。）

S.

天气和农作物。

Weather and crops.

接下来发生的事情，影响远不止农业市场。

What happens next matter well beyond agriculture markets.

食品是厄尔尼诺现象传导至更广泛经济的主要渠道，其影响通常有一年的滞后。

Food is the main channel through which El Ni reaches the broader economy and the effect usually appears after one year lag.

这意味着通胀主要是一个2027年的话题。

That makes inflation primary a 2027 story.

在拉丁美洲，最大的额外通胀风险集中在秘鲁、巴西和哥伦比亚，大部分压力将在2027年显现。

In Latin America, the largest incremental inflation risks are concentrated in Peru, Brazil and Colombia, with most of the pressure arriving in 2027.

这对央行来说很重要。

That matters for central banks.

天气冲击可能会消退，因此政策制定者通常会忽略食品价格的初期上涨。

Weather shocks can fade, so policymakers often look through initial rise in food prices.

更大的担忧是，较高的食品成本可能会开始影响通胀预期、工资、租金或经济中其他价格。

The greater concerns is that higher food costs may begin to influence inflation expectations, wages, rents or other prices across the economy.

哥伦比亚的情况最明显，这些二次效应可能会让货币政策变得复杂。

Colombia stands out at the clearest case where those second round effects could complicate monetary policy.

印度和印度尼西亚也面临着显著的经济风险。

India and Indonesia also face meaningful economic exposure.

在这两个国家，农业在产出和就业中都占了很大比重。

Agriculture accounts for a large share of output and employment in these countries.

印度的情况尤其敏感。

India is especially sensitive.

农业约占GDP的18%，就业人口的43%到45%，而食品占消费价格篮子的比重约为36%。

Agriculture represents about 18 of the GDP, 43 to 45 of jobs, while food makes up roughly 36% of the consumer price basket.

创纪录的粮食储备能提供一些保护，不过如果收成不好，还是可能拖累农村收入，让食品通胀继续走高。

Record food reserves may provide some protection, though a poor growing season could still wait on rural incomes and keep food inflation elevated.

经济影响会有很大差别。

The economic consequence will vary widely.

农产品价格上涨能支持农民收入，也可能让部分食品和农业供应链环节受益。

Higher agriculture prices can support farmer income and benefit some parts of the food and agriculture supply chain.

但也会提高家庭、食品生产商以及依赖谷物和糖的企业的成本。

They can also raise costs for households, food producers and business that depend on grains and sugar.

在天气更热或更干燥导致电价上涨的市场，公用事业公司可能受益；而在那些受影响地区，强降雨可能扰乱运输路线和机场运营。

Utilities may benefit in markets where hotter or drier conditions lift electricity prices, while heavy rainfall could disrupt transport routes and airports in those exposed regions.

历史资产价格信号相对有限。

Historical asset price signals are limited.

所以这与其说是一个宏观层面的交易机会，不如说是对各地风险敞口的细致评估。

So this is less of a broad macro trade than a detailed assessment of local exposure.

降雨量、作物生长周期、库存情况，以及能否将上涨的成本转嫁给消费者，这些因素将决定压力最终落在哪里。

Rainfall, crop timing, inventories and the ability to pass higher costs on to consumers will determine where the pressure lands.

厄尔尼诺现象可能起源于太平洋，但它对市场的影响可以从西非的可可农场蔓延到超市货架、电网，甚至是央行的会议现场。

El Niu may begin in The Pacific, but its market footprint can travel from cocoa farms in West Africa to a grocery aisle, a power grid or a central bank meeting.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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以上内容仅供参考，基于制作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不构成任何要约或招揽，也不属于税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.

医生。

Doctor.

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