欧洲银行应对不确定性

欢迎来到市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是阿尔瓦罗·塞拉诺，欧洲银行业负责人。

I'm Alvaro Serrano, head of European banks.

我是朱莉娅·奥罗拉·米奥托，欧洲股票研究银行业分析师。

And I'm Giulia Aurora Miotto, European Equity Research Banks Analyst.

今天，我们正在参加年度欧洲金融会议。

Today, we're at our annual European Financials Conference.

今天是3月19日，星期四，伦敦时间下午1:30。

It's Thursday, March 19 at 01:30PM London.

我们正在参加欧洲金融会议。

We're at a European Financials Conference.

参会人数几乎达到历史最高水平，投资者与企业之间的互动非常热烈，三大主题主导了讨论：地缘政治、私人信贷和人工智能。

Attendance is up almost at record levels, a great deal of engagement with both investors and companies, with three main topics dominating the debate: geopolitics, private credit and AI.

我认为在中东问题上，整个三天会议都备受关注。

I think on The Middle East, clearly a lot of focus during the whole three days.

我认为银行传递的信息是关于其商业模式的韧性，承认贷款增长可能会较弱，部分投资决策可能因不确定性而推迟，当然手续费也可能因此受到影响。

I think the message from banks has been about the resilience of the business model, acknowledging the loan growth could be weaker, some of the investment decisions could be delayed given the uncertainty, and of course fees could also be affected as a result.

另一方面，银行也承认，在压力时期，储蓄利率会上升，存款增长可能更好，而收益率曲线更陡峭时，这一优势也能更好地实现变现。

On the flip side, there's an acknowledgement that during stress, savings rates go up, deposit growth could be better, and with a steeper curve, that could be better monetized.

因此，银行传递的信息是关于税前利润前景的韧性。

So the message from the banks is about the resilience of the pre provision profit outlook.

一些银行提到，如果情况在IFRS9框架下持续，可能需要增加拨备，但我们认为整体盈利前景仍具韧性。

Some banks have been talking about top up of provisions if the situation persists in an IFRS9 world, but we do believe the overall outlook for earnings is of a resilient picture.

然而，我们承认，当前该板块的估值比去年此时要高得多。

However, we acknowledge the positioning of the sector is much richer than it was this time last year.

这种估值意味着，如果压力持续，股价倍数可能会承压；坦率地说，我们认为，如果压力持续，即使盈利前景总体稳健，股价倍数下调仍是该板块最大的传染渠道。

The positioning, that means if stress continues, we could see the multiple suffering, and that, to be honest, is what we see the biggest channel of contagion to the sector is multiple derating if the stress continues in what otherwise looks like a pretty resilient earnings picture.

朱莉娅，你在私人信贷方面学到了什么？

Giulia, what did you learn on private credit?

是的，私人信贷确实是投资者关注和担忧的另一个重点领域。

Yes, private credit was definitely another area of big focus and worrying from investors.

从银行的角度来看，所有参与私人信贷的银行都强调了几个要点。

From a bank's perspective, all the banks that are involved in private credit highlighted a couple of things.

首先，它们在向B2C客户放贷时通常处于优先地位。

First of all, they tend to be senior when they lend to B2Cs.

其次，它们的贷款有数百甚至数千笔贷款作为超额抵押。

Secondly, they are overcollateralized by hundreds, if not thousands, of loans.

第三，大多数投资银行已经从事这一业务十年以上，并且通常只与顶级发起人合作。

And then thirdly, most investment banks have been doing this for a decade or more, and they tend to partner only with prime sponsors.

因此，总体而言，传达的信息实际上相当令人安心。

So overall, the message was actually rather reassuring.

阿尔瓦罗，人工智能是这次会议的另一个热门话题。

Alvaro, AI was the other big topic at the conference.

你在那里学到了什么？

What did you learn there?

这个话题比去年更大，而且今年到目前为止我们看到的波动性也加剧了这一点。

It's even a bigger topic than last year, and obviously, of the volatility we've seen year to date contributed to that.

我认为，总体而言，银行从运营角度来看是人工智能的净受益者。

I think overall, the banks are seeing as net beneficiaries of AI from an operational perspective.

人们承认，在人工智能时代，竞争可能会加剧。

There's an acknowledgment that in an AI world, competition might increase.

存款竞争已经被提及。

Deposit competition has come up.

一些费用类产品也被提到过。

Some fee products has also come up.

但有些银行预计在未来三年内将成本收入比提高九个百分点。

But you have banks guiding to nine percentage points improvement in cost income ratio in next three years.

因此，由生产力提升带来的运营节约，足以抵消任何潜在的竞争加剧。

So the operational savings from productivity are seeing them more than offsetting any potential increase in competition.

我认为，未知的不确定性在于生产力提升后对就业的长期影响，但欧洲方面的信息相对令人安心，因为预计未来十年欧洲超过20%的劳动力将退休。

I think the known unknown is employment, consequences of improved productivity further down the line, but the message in Europe is relatively reassuring considering that over 20% of the workforce in Europe is expected to retire the next ten years.

所以总体来看，银行被视为净受益者。

So overall, seen as net beneficiaries.

还讨论了监管问题。

There was also discussions around regulation.

朱莉娅？

Giulia?

是的，我们邀请了负责储蓄与投资联盟项目的欧盟委员玛丽亚·路易莎·阿尔布开克。

Yes, we had Maria Luiz Albuquerque, European Commissioner in charge of the Savings and Investment Union project.

这是参会人数最多的会议之一，我们听到一方面各方坚定致力于推进储蓄与投资联盟项目，深化欧洲资本市场，并引导储蓄流向更具生产力的投资。

This was one of the most attended sessions, and we heard on one side definitely a determination to deliver on the project of the Savings and Investment Union and deepen European capital markets and mobilize savings towards more productive investments.

另一方面，投资者则持些许怀疑态度，处于观望状态。

On the other side, investors were a little skeptical and are really in wait and see mode.

一些银行指出，他们预计在五月前就能看到证券化或市场一体化等关键方案取得进展。

Some banks highlighted that they expect progress on some of the key packages like securitization or market integration package as soon as May.

因此，我们认为从欧洲竞争力的角度来看，这是未来几个月需要重点关注的领域。

So we think this is a key area to monitor over the coming months from a European competitiveness standpoint.

我觉得这是很好的收尾点。

I think that's a great place to wrap it up.

感谢我们的听众收听。

And to our audience, thanks for listening.

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If you enjoy listening to thoughts on the market, do let us know whenever you listen and share the podcast with friends and a colleague today.

上述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

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It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

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