塑造2026年市场的四大关键主题

欢迎来到市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是斯蒂芬·伯德，摩根士丹利全球主题与可持续研究主管。

I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's global head of thematic and sustainability research.

今天，我们将探讨将定义2026年市场与经济的四大主题。

Today, the four key themes that will define markets and economies in 2026.

现在是纽约时间1月26日星期一上午10点。

It's Monday, January 26 at 10AM in New York.

如果你对市场的各种噪音和频繁波动感到不知所措，你并不孤单。

If you're feeling overwhelmed by all the market noise and constant swings, you're not alone.

如今投资者面临的一大挑战，是如何屏蔽短期的涨跌，专注于真正改变世界的宏观趋势。

One of the biggest hurdles for investors today is really figuring out how to tune out the short term ups and downs and focus on the bigger trends that are truly changing the world.

在摩根士丹利研究部门，主题分析长期以来一直是我们在市场分析中的核心方法，尤其是在极端波动时期。

At Morgan Stanley Research, thematic analysis has long been central to how we think about markets, especially in periods of extreme volatility.

通过主题视角，我们能够远离噪音，专注于重塑经济、行业和社会的结构性力量。

A thematic lens helps us step back from the noise and really focus on the structural forces reshaping economies, industries, and societies.

这种视角已经带来了成果。

And that perspective has delivered results.

在2025年，我们的主题股票类别平均跑赢了MSCI全球指数16%，跑赢了标普500指数27%。

In 2025, on average, our thematic stock categories outperformed the MSCI World Index by 16% and the S and P 500 by 27%.

这进一步强化了我们的观点：长期主题是创造超额收益的强大驱动力。

And this really reinforces our view that long term themes can be powerful drivers of alpha.

对于2026年，我们的框架围绕四大关键主题构建：人工智能与技术扩散、能源的未来、多极化世界以及社会变迁。

For 2026, our framework is built around four key themes: AI and tech diffusion, the future of energy, the multipolar world, and societal shifts.

其中三个主题延续自去年，但每个都已发生显著演变，而其中一个主题则是对我们先前工作的重大拓展。

Three of these themes carry forward from last year, but each has evolved meaningfully, and one of our themes represents a major expansion on our prior work.

首先，人工智能与技术扩散主题依然居于核心地位，但已明显成熟并演进。

First, the AI and tech diffusion theme remains central, but has clearly matured and evolved.

在2025年，重点在于能力的快速提升。

In 2025, the focus was on rapid capability gains.

在2026年，关注点将转向非线性进步，以及人工智能能力与现实世界采用率之间日益扩大的差距。

In 2026, the emphasis shifts to nonlinear improvement and the growing gap between AI capabilities and real world adoption.

一个关键的演变在于，我们认为即使软件和硬件效率不断提升，计算需求仍可能显著超过供给。

A critical evolution is our view that compute demand is likely to exceed supply meaningfully, even as software and hardware become more efficient.

随着人工智能应用场景的增多和复杂化，基础设施——尤其是计算能力——正成为决定性的制约因素。

As AI use cases multiply and grow more complex, the infrastructure, especially computing power, emerges as a defining constraint.

接下来是能源的未来，这一主题已变得更加紧迫。

Next is the future of energy, which has taken on new urgency.

长期以来被认为趋于平稳的发达市场能源需求，如今正出现上升趋势，这主要由人工智能基础设施和数据中心驱动。

Energy demand in developed markets, long assumed to be flat, is now inflecting upwards, and this is driven largely by AI infrastructure and data centers.

与2025年相比，这一主题已从单纯的供应讨论，扩展为聚焦政策的讨论。

Compared with 2025, this theme has expanded from a supply conversation into one focused on policy.

能源成本的上升正越来越明显地影响消费者，从而凸显了我们所称的‘能源政治’这一概念。

Rising energy costs are becoming increasingly visible to consumers, elevating a concept we call the politics of energy.

政策制定者面临压力，必须在存在权衡的情况下优先保障低成本、可靠的能源，同时新的策略正在涌现，以在不破坏电网或增加家庭账单的前提下确保电力供应。

Policymakers are under pressure to prioritize low cost, reliable energy even when tradeoffs exist, and new strategies are emerging to secure power without destabilizing grids or increasing household bills.

我们的第三个主题——多极世界——也延续了去年的框架，但如今更加鲜明突出。

Our third theme, the multipolar world, also builds on last year but with sharper edges.

全球化持续碎片化，各国日益优先考虑安全、韧性和国家自给自足。

Globalization continues to fragment as countries prioritize security, resilience, and national self sufficiency.

自2025年以来，竞争已更加明确地由对关键投入品的获取能力定义，例如能源、材料、国防能力和先进技术。

Since 2025, competition has become more clearly defined by access to critical inputs, such as energy, materials, defense capabilities, and advanced technology.

值得注意的是，2025年表现最佳的主题类别由多极世界动态驱动，凸显了地缘政治与产业变革如何直接转化为市场结果。

Notably, the top performing thematic categories in 2025 were driven by multipolar world dynamics, underscoring how geopolitical and industrial shifts are translating directly into market outcomes.

如今，最大的演变体现在我们的第四个关键主题上，我们称之为社会变迁，这一主题扩展了我们此前关于长寿的研究。

Now, the biggest evolution comes with our fourth key theme, which we call societal shifts, and this expands on our prior work on longevity.

这一新框架捕捉了塑造全球社会的更广泛力量：由人工智能驱动的劳动力颠覆与演变、人口老龄化、消费偏好变化、K经济、健康长寿的推动，以及许多地区的严峻人口结构挑战。

This new framework captures a wider range of forces shaping societies globally: AI driven labor disruption and evolution, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, the K economy, the push for healthy longevity, and challenging demographics across many regions.

这些变迁日益影响政府政策、企业战略和经济增长，其影响范围远超投资者通常的预期。

These shifts increasingly influence government policy, corporate strategy, and economic growth, and their impact spans far more industries than investors often expect.

至关重要的是，这些主题并非孤立运作：人工智能加速了能源需求。

Crucially, these themes don't operate in isolation: AI accelerates energy demand.

能源成本塑造了政治格局。

Energy costs shape politics.

政治影响供应链和国家优先事项。

Politics influence supply chains and national priorities.

所有这些都直接反映在社会结果上，从就业到消费模式。

And all of this feeds directly into societal outcomes, from employment to consumption patterns.

主题投资的威力在于理解这些多重力量以被忽视的方式相互强化的交汇点。

The power of thematic investing lies in understanding these intersections where multiple forces reinforce one another in underappreciated ways.

因此，总结来说，2026年最重要的投资问题不仅仅是增长率，而是结构。

So to sum it up, the most important investment questions for 2026 aren't just about growth rates they're about structure.

理解技术、能源、地缘政治和社会如何共同演变，可能是看清机遇与风险真正走向的最清晰方式。

Understanding how technology, energy, geopolitics, and society evolve together may be the clearest way to see where opportunity and risk are truly heading.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

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