美联储能撑多久？

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是安德鲁·希茨，摩根士丹利固定收益研究全球主管。

I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天的问题是：美联储能坚持到底吗？

Today, can the Fed hold the line?

现在是伦敦时间8月5日星期三下午2点。

It's Wednesday, August 5 at 2PM in London.

美联储面临着一项艰巨的任务。

The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.

美国经济是一个复杂多样的生态系统，从脑外科手术到你的汉堡订单，无所不包。

The US economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.

美联储被要求保持物价稳定和充分就业，而他们主要依靠一个简单的工具——短期利率，并且对政府政策或全球事件可能带来的影响毫无控制力。

The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using for the most part, one simple tool, a short term interest rate and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.

目前，美联储可能对其在就业市场这一半任务上的成功感到相当满意，因为失业率接近历史低点。

Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.

但在物价稳定方面，美联储可能觉得自己做得没那么好。

But it probably feels less successful about price stability.

过去五年，根据美联储偏好的通胀指标，美国经济的整体物价上涨了超过20%。

Over the last five years, overall prices in The US economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

这大约是2%年通胀目标下涨幅的两倍。

That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.

在这个复杂局面中，新任美联储主席沃什上任了。

Into this complexity steps a new Fed Chair, Warsh.

他强调了任期内的两个变化。

He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.

第一，通胀太高，需要降下来。

First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.

第二，美联储历史上与市场沟通太多，沃什主席认为这助长了投资者可能承担过多风险，同时也限制了美联储的行动选择。

And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk while also restricting the Fed's options to act.

市场现在正在消化的，是这两个目标之间可能存在的矛盾。

What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.

毕竟，高通胀是眼前的问题。

After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.

在美联储希望将物价涨幅控制在每年约2%的情况下，他们偏好的PCE通胀指标在过去三个月、六个月和十二个月的年化增长率都超过了3%。

In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure PCE inflation is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last three, six and twelve months.

最新的ISM制造业调查显示，制造商面临的价格上涨幅度远高于正常水平。

In the latest ISM Manufacturing Survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.

面对这种情况，美联储本可以选择加息来应对通胀。

In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.

但它没有这么做。

It didn't do that.

另一种选择是暗示自己已经非常接近采取行动，并且可能很快就会动手。

Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.

它也没有这么做。

It didn't do that either.

事实上，我们的经济学家认为，市场从沃什主席在最近一次美联储会议上的缺乏指引和行动中解读出，加息的门槛相当高。

Indeed, our economists think that the market took chair warsh lack of guidance and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes.

甚至有可能重新定义美联储2%的通胀目标，转而采用更笼统、更不具体的标准。

And even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.

结果市场反应表明，对通胀的关注度有所下降。

The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.

加息预期降低，收益率曲线因长期收益率抛售而变陡，通胀预期指标上升，美元走弱。

The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened led by a sell off of long end yields, measures of expected inflation rose and the US dollar weakened.

此后几天市场有所企稳，但结果是，市场现在对即将公布的通胀数据会更加敏感。

In the days since markets have settled a bit, but the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.

如果今年下半年通胀数据如摩根士丹利预期的那样放缓，那么美联储的做法看起来是合理的，因为数据表明既不需要采取行动，也不需要就他们的计划进行更多沟通。

If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.

但如果通胀不配合，挑战就迫在眉睫。

But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.

美联储另一位成员克里斯托弗·沃勒最近表示，引用他的话，“严厉地盯着通胀，直到它在灼热的目光下融化，这不是一个选项。”

Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed recently said that quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before a withering gaze is not an option.

市场会期待行动，并期待一个解释该行动的框架。

The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.

在那之前，我们的利率策略师认为收益率曲线会继续变陡。

Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steepen.

一如既往，感谢你的时间。

Thank you, as always, for your time.

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