如何应对美中紧张关系

本集简介

我们的全球固定收益研究和公共政策主管Michael Zezas探讨了美中关系的最新进展及其对投资者的潜在影响。阅读更多摩根士丹利的深度分析。 ----- 文字记录 ----- 欢迎收听《市场观点》。我是Michael Zezas，摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究和公共政策策略主管。今天我们将探讨美中关系——为何这一关系始终错综复杂，及其对市场的意义。现在是纽约时间10月21日周二中午12:30。关注时事的朋友都知道，美中关系始终是新闻焦点。但表象之下，两国关系的微妙程度远超日常新闻片段所呈现的。投资者常问：我们是否正走向两大经济体的脱钩？还是存在合作空间？答案一如既往——这很复杂。让我们从基本面说起。美中经济深度交织，但战略竞争日趋激烈。近年来双方实施了关税、出口管制和技术转让限制。然而两国贸易往来依然频繁，双方经济增长与创新都相互依存。当前局势如何？最近数周，中国收紧稀土出口管制，美国则提议实施100%关税作为回应。若这些措施落地，可能标志明确的经济分裂。但鉴于前述的相互依存关系，华盛顿和北京似乎都不愿真正决裂——至少短期内如此。双方都清楚经济代价将难以承受。因此更可能达成休战协议，条款或许不同于今春达成的半导体换稀土临时协议。长期来看，这更像是持续谈判与间歇休战大趋势中的一环，而非持久贸易和平或硬性经济脱钩。对固定收益投资者而言，这带来几点重要考量。首先，美国产业政策正在加码，对AI基础设施影响显著。美国视AI为必须超越中国的关键领域。最新税收法案重启资本支出激励，我们预计美国企业将加速AI开发。我的同事测算未来三年数据中心融资需求达2.9万亿美元，约半数将来自各类信贷市场。这对信贷投资者意味着重要机遇。另一考量是市场如何平衡短期增长风险与中期增长潜力。正如我们美国经济团队指出，企业尚未被迫就转嫁或吸收关税成本做出艰难抉择，表明贸易相关增长压力仍未消退。持续的美国政府停摆更是雪上加霜。这些因素都支持近期债券收益率可能下行的观点。但同时，收益率曲线可能进一步陡峭化，长期债券相对收益率走高。这反映了财政赤字扩大、通胀和经济增长方面更大的不确定性。我们的经济学家持续指出经济数据的矛盾信号，以及美国财政可持续性似乎依赖于企业资本支出加速，以推动制造业和AI驱动的增长爆发。总之，美中关系正在演变，其全球影响难以简单概括或快速解决。我们的挑战始终是制定反映政策长期动向的投资策略，在新闻喧嚣中捕捉真实信号。感谢收听。若喜欢本节目，请在收听平台留下评论，并将《市场观点》推荐给朋友或同事。

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we’re talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It’s Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you’ve been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it’s complicated. Let’s start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there’s still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what’s going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations. First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it’s clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven’t yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren’t yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn’t help either. It’s all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don’t lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

欢迎收听《市场观点》。我是迈克尔·齐泽斯，全球固定收益研究和公共政策策略主管。今天我们要讨论的是美中关系为何依然复杂，及其对市场的影响。现在是纽约时间10月21日星期二中午12:30。关注时事的听众都知道，美中关系始终是新闻焦点。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zizes, global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy. Today, we're talking about The US and China, why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It's Tuesday, October 21 at 12:30PM in New York. If you've been following headlines, you know that US China relations are rarely out of the news.

Speaker 0

但表象之下，双边关系的动态远比日常新闻片段所呈现的更为微妙。投资者常问：我们是否正走向经济脱钩？还是存在合作空间？答案一如既往——这很复杂。先从基本面看：美中经济深度交织，但战略竞争已日趋激烈。

But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily sound bites suggest. Investors often ask, are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer as always is it's complicated. Let's start with the basics. The US and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified.

Speaker 0

近年来出现了关税战、出口管制和技术转让限制。但两国贸易量依然庞大，双方经济增长与创新都相互依存。最新动态如何？近期中国收紧稀土出口管制，美国则提议征收100%关税作为回应。若成真，这些事件可能标志明确的经济割裂。

Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet there's still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what's going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls, and The US has proposed 100% tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split.

Speaker 0

但鉴于前文所述的相互依存关系，华盛顿和北京似乎都不愿真正决裂——至少短期内不会。双方都清楚这将造成惊人的经济代价。因此更可能达成休战协议，条款或许会不同于今春达成的狭隘半导体与稀土协议。长期来看，这更像是滚动式谈判与间歇性和解大趋势中的一环，而非持久贸易和平或硬性经济脱钩。这对固定收益投资者意味着几点重要考量。

But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seem eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic cost would be staggering and both sides know it. So a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis for rare earths agreement that they made this spring. In longer term, this episode seems to be part of a broader dynamic where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade piece or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations.

Speaker 0

首先，美国产业政策正在升级，对AI基础设施影响显著。美国将AI视为必须超越中国的关键领域。最新税法案提供的资本支出激励措施支持下，美国企业必将加速AI开发——据我同事测算，未来三年数据中心融资需求将达2.9万亿美元，其中约半数将来自各类信贷市场。这对信贷投资者是重要机遇。另一考量是市场如何平衡短期增长风险与中期增长潜力。

First, US industrial policy is ramping up with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where The US views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it's clear to us that US companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2,900,000,000,000 of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities.

Speaker 0

正如我们美国经济团队所指出的，企业尚未被迫就转嫁或吸收关税成本做出艰难抉择，说明贸易相关的增长压力仍未消散。持续的美国政府停摆更是雪上加霜。这些因素都可能导致近期债券收益率走低。但同时，收益率曲线可能因相对较高收益率和较长存续期而变得更陡峭，反映出财政赤字、通胀和经济增长方面的更大不确定性。

As our US economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven't yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade related growth pressures aren't yet in the rearview. The ongoing US government shutdown doesn't help either. It's all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more with higher relative yields and longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth.

Speaker 0

我们的经济学家一直指出经济数据的矛盾信号，以及美国财政可持续性似乎依赖于制造业和AI驱动的资本支出激增。总之，美中关系演变具有全球影响，难以简单概括或快速解决。我们的持续挑战在于制定反映政策深层动向的投资策略——在新闻喧嚣中捕捉真实信号。感谢收听。若喜欢本期节目，请留下评论并分享给朋友同事。

Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data as well as a US fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI driven growth burst. In sum, The US China relationship is evolving with global implications that don't lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

Speaker 1

前述内容仅供参考，基于创建时获取的信息。其并非要约或招揽，亦非税务或法律建议。该内容未考虑您的财务状况与目标，可能并不适合您。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created. It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice. It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.