Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德鲁·希茨。

I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天节目内容：试图调和相互矛盾的市场信号。

Today on the program: Trying to square conflicting market signals.

现在是4月10日，星期五，伦敦时间下午2点。

It's Friday, April 10 at 2PM in London.

从某个层面来看，情况依然非常严峻。

At one level, it is all still very serious.

世界仍处于——这并非夸大其词——历史上最严重的全球能源市场动荡之中。

The world remains in the midst of, and this is not an exaggeration, the worst disruption to global energy markets in history.

全球六分之一的石油产量仍被封锁在霍尔木兹海峡之后。

One sixth of global oil production remains trapped behind the Strait Of Hormuz.

而所谓即期布伦特原油的价格——即你为近期交割石油所支付的价格——已超过每桶130美元，是年初价格的两倍多。

And the price of so called Dated Brent, the price that you pay to get oil delivered in the near term, is over a $130 a barrel, more than double its price at the start of the year.

但市场呢？

But markets?

今年至今，美国股票和债券大致持平。

Well, year to date, US stocks and bonds are roughly unchanged.

两者都经历了大幅波动，但最终又回到了起点附近。

Both have seen large swings only to return to about where they've started.

一个偶尔查看市场的投资者，在这个周末查看投资组合时，可能会认为2026年平淡无奇，于是继续观看大师赛。

An investor who only occasionally checks the markets could be forgiven for looking at their portfolio this weekend, assuming a pretty dull 2026 and going back to watching the Masters tournament.

我们该如何解释这种现象？

How do we square this?

对于股票而言，有两个重要因素。

For stocks, two dynamics are important.

首先，尽管油价高企，但盈利预期，尤其是在美国，仍在持续上升。

First, despite oil prices, earnings estimates, especially in The United States, continue to move higher.

这些预期可能被证明是错误的，但分析师们正逐步变得更加乐观，尤其是随着技术投资持续快速推进。

Those estimates may prove wrong, but analysts have been incrementally more optimistic, particularly as technological investment continues at pace.

股票本质上是关于未来的。

Stocks are also fundamentally about the future.

当前价格应当反映从现在起直至永远的收益的折现价值。

Current prices should reflect the discounted value of earnings between now and, well, forever.

因此，从数学上讲，如果长期前景能够支撑，那么短期内因能源中断导致的一周或三个月的波动实际上并不那么重要。

And so mathematically, if the longer term outlook can hold up a week three month period in the near term, say, due to energy disruption, simply doesn't have to matter as much mathematically.

相比之下，债券目前被困在两种强劲的对立力量之间。

Bonds in contrast are currently stuck between two pretty strong opposing forces.

由关税和石油推动的更高通胀通常对债券不利。

Higher inflation driven by tariffs and oil is typically bond negative.

但若经济增长面临更大风险，债券往往表现良好。

But bonds also tend to do well if there are higher risk to growth.

因此，关键问题是，持续的能源冲击是否会最终迫使央行将增长风险置于当前高通胀之上。

And so the key question is whether a prolonged energy shock finally forces central banks to prioritize these growth risks over currently elevated inflation.

到目前为止，尽管市场整体波动较小，2026年却远非一帆风顺。

So far, 2026 has been anything but easy despite the lower headline changes in markets.

摩根士丹利的数据显示，三月是过去十年中股票对冲基金表现第二差的月份。

Morgan Stanley data suggests that March was the second worst month for equity hedge funds in the last decade.

因此，怀着一些谦逊，我们想聚焦于三点。

And so with some humility, we'd focus on three points.

首先，我们认为目前美国股票和债券相比全球其他市场具有优势。

First, we think US stocks and bonds have an advantage at the moment over their global peers.

美国的收益增长更强。

US earnings growth is stronger.

美国经济对能源的敏感度较低，而且我们认为，如果经济增长进一步疲软，美国央行——美联储——更有可能更快地降息。

The US economy is less energy sensitive, and the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, we think is more likely to cut rates faster if there's more weakness in growth.

其次，我们认为债券市场最终会在更低的收益率水平上解决其矛盾。

Second, we think the bond markets ultimately resolve their tensions at lower levels of yield.

更快的解决会降低通胀风险，而更持久的中断则会严重拖累增长。

A quicker resolution would reduce inflation risks while a more prolonged disruption is gonna weigh seriously on growth.

目前我们所处的这种对债券不利的中间状态，似乎不太可能持续下去。

The bond unfriendly middle ground, where we are now, simply seems unlikely to persist.

第三，在波动之中，相对估值仍然重要，仍有一些值得关注的机会。

Third, amidst the volatility, relative valuation still matters, and there are still interesting things.

例如，考虑到亚洲地区对高油价的敞口，亚洲的信用利差看起来异常狭窄。

For example, credit spreads in Asia look extremely tight given the region's exposure to high oil prices.

相比之下，正如我的同事迈克·威尔逊此前在本节目中所评论的，大型科技股的估值已大幅下调，如今其估值水平与消费必需品板块相近，但其盈利增长率约为后者的三倍，且对能源的依赖较低。

And by contrast, as my colleague Mike Wilson has commented on this program earlier, large cap technology stocks have derated significantly and now trade at similar valuations to the consumer staple sector despite having roughly three times the earnings growth as well as low energy exposure.

我们再次迎来一个充满不确定性的周末，但倾向于美国市场、预期收益率下降、并努力关注相对价值，是我们应对这一局面的几种方式。

We are once again heading into an uncertain weekend, but preferring US markets, expecting lower yields, and trying to stay focused on relative value are a few of the ways we're trying to navigate it.

一如既往，感谢您的时间。

Thank you, as always, for your time.

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前述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它并未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.

医生。

Doctor.

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