市场也有“三月疯狂”

欢迎来到《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是安德鲁·谢茨，摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管。

I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天节目中，我们将回顾关键叙事是如何迅速转变的，以及这种转变可能持续多久。

Today on the program, a survey of just how quickly key narratives have changed and how lasting that might be.

今天是3月20日，星期五，伦敦时间下午2点。

It's Friday, March 20 at 2PM in London.

NCAA篮球锦标赛，也被称为‘三月疯狂’，是我一年中最喜欢的时刻之一。

The NCAA basketball tournament, also known as March Madness, is one of my favorite times of the year.

由64支球队参加的单场淘汰赛充满了奇妙的混乱。

The single elimination tournament of 64 teams is wonderfully chaotic.

尤其是早期比赛，充满了意外。

Plenty of surprises, especially in the early games.

篮球是一项运动，其中势头往往显得真实可信。

And basketball is one of those sports where momentum often seems real.

一支在上半场似乎完全忘记如何投篮的球队，突然在下半场变得所向披靡。

A team that has somehow forgotten how to shoot in the first half of the game can suddenly look unstoppable in the second.

正如我所说，三月是我最喜欢观看体育赛事的时节之一。

As I said, March is one of my favorite times to watch sports.

但这通常并不是我最擅长预测市场的月份。

It is often not one of my favorite times to forecast markets.

在2008年2月、2020年、2022年、2023年和2025年的三月，市场都出现了异常剧烈的波动。

In 02/2008, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025, March saw outsized market volatility.

因此，今年再次出现了这种情况。

Hence, the case again this year.

我敢肯定这纯粹只是巧合。

I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

这一次，不仅仅是能源市场发生了历史性动荡，这一点我和我的同事马丁·拉茨上周在这档节目中已经讨论过。

This time, it's not just about a historic disruption to the energy markets, which my colleague, Martijn Rats, and I discussed on this program last week.

这还标志着市场叙事的重大逆转。

It's also a major reversal of the market storyline.

如果这是一场篮球比赛，势头刚刚逆转了。

If this were a basketball game, the momentum just flipped.

在2026年1月和2月，出现了大量重叠的信号，表明美国及全球经济正处于良好甚至加速状态，受益于廉价能源、刺激性政策和强劲的AI投资。

In January and February 2026, there were strong overlapping signals that The US and global economy were in a good, even accelerating place, boosted by cheap energy, stimulative policy and robust AI investment.

油价下跌，而金属、运输、周期性股票和金融股均上涨。

Oil prices were down as metals, transports, cyclicals, and financial stocks all rose.

欧洲、亚洲和新兴市场股票对全球增长更为敏感，表现优于大盘。

Europe, Asia, and emerging market equities, all more sensitive to global growth, were outperforming.

通胀正在放缓。

Inflation was moderating.

各国央行计划降息。

Central banks were planning to lower interest rates.

收益率曲线趋于陡峭，美元走弱。

The yield curve was steepening, and the US dollar was weakening.

美国1月的就业报告相当不错。

The January US jobs report was pretty good.

然后一切都变了。

And then it all changed.

一瞬间，伊朗冲突及随之而来的油价冲击，彻底颠覆了几乎所有这些趋势。

In a moment, the Iran conflict and the subsequent risk of an oil price shocked flipped almost every single one of those storylines on its head.

如今，油价上涨，而金属、运输、周期性股票和金融股的价格全部下跌。

Now oil prices rose and the prices for metals, transports, cyclicals, financial stocks all fell.

欧洲和亚洲的股票——这些严重依赖石油进口的地区——表现不佳。

Equities in Europe and Asia, regions that rely heavily on importing oil, underperformed.

由于投资者寻求避险，美元走强。

The US dollar rose as investors sought out safe haven.

油价上涨后，通胀飙升。

Inflation jumped following oil prices.

由于通胀上升，我们和其他许多预测者调整了对央行行动的预期，收益率曲线因此变平。

The yield curve flattened on that higher inflation as we and many other forecasters adjusted our expectations for what central banks would do.

而事实上，最新的美国就业报告非常糟糕。

And as it happens, the last US jobs report was pretty bad.

如果伊朗冲突结束，石油重新通过霍尔木兹海峡流通，这个故事很可能再次出现逆转。

If the Iran conflict ends and oil resumes flowing through the Strait Of Hormuz, it's very possible that this story could once again swing back.

但在那之前，这种趋势迅速反转意味着几乎可以肯定，许多投资者措手不及，仓位安排不当。

But until it does, the speed of which this momentum has flipped means that almost by definition, many investors have been caught off guard and left poorly positioned.

如果再加上在这一新环境下进行多元化配置的挑战——股票、债券甚至黄金的价格都在同向波动，投资者可能最简单的选择就是继续减少持仓，以度过这场风暴，从而进一步加剧短期的疲软。

If you couple that with the challenge of diversifying in this new environment, where the prices for stocks, bonds, and even gold have all been moving in the same direction, the path of least resistance for investors may be to continue to reduce their exposure to ride out the storm, driving further near term weakness.

不幸的是，这可能会带来几周的不适。

Unfortunately, that could make for an uncomfortable few weeks.

至少，现在还有不错的篮球比赛可看。

At least, there's some good basketball on.

一如既往，感谢您的时间。

Thank you, as always, for your time.

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以上内容仅为信息性参考，基于创作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.