市场韧性并非自满

欢迎收听《市场思考》播客。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利的首席投资官兼美国首席股票策略师。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天在播客中，我将讨论正在进行的中期转型。

Today in the podcast, I'll be discussing the ongoing mid cycle transition.

现在是纽约时间9月21日星期一上午11点30分，让我们开始吧。

It's Monday, September 21 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

标普500指数接近历史高点。

The S and P 500 is near record highs.

尽管能源价格上涨、两场战争并行，以及AI安全问题再次成为头条新闻，情况依然如此。

That's despite rising energy prices, two wars running in parallel, and AI safety concerns back in the headlines.

与此同时，各国央行正在收紧政策。

Meanwhile, central banks are tightening.

从纸面上看，这些因素足以让人感到紧张。

On paper, that's a lot of reasons to be nervous.

那投资者是不是太掉以轻心了？

So are investors just being complacent?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

自6月以来，罗素3000指数中有超过40%的股票下跌了至少20%，而标普500指数的远期市盈率已回落至19倍，比一年前低了近20%。

More than 40% of the Russell three thousand has fallen at least 20% since June, while the S and P five hundred's forward price earnings multiple has fallen back to 19 times, which is almost 20% lower than a year ago.

与此同时，股票盈利增长的中位数大约在15%左右，而盈利修正的广度又回到了周期高点附近。

At the same time, median stock earnings growth is running around 15%, and revisions breadth is back near cycle highs.

估值下降加上盈利增长强劲，这可不是掉以轻心。

Falling valuations alongside strong earnings growth is not complacency.

这正是典型的中期过渡期的定义。

It's the definition of a classic mid cycle transition.

这个区别很重要，因为中期过渡期的市场往往让几乎所有人都感到困惑。

That distinction matters because mid cycle markets tend to frustrate almost everyone.

指数可以保持坚挺，而市场中的许多股票却在回调。

The index can remain resilient while much of the market corrects.

盈利可以保持强劲，而估值倍数下降，领导层可以更换，而牛市不会结束。

Earnings can stay strong while multiples fall, and leadership can change without the bull market ending.

上周的美联储会议完全符合这个框架。

Last week's Fed meeting fits squarely into that framework.

加息25个基点基本已被市场消化，所以真正的信息是沃什主席愿意兑现其抗击通胀的承诺。

The 25 basis point hike was largely priced, so the real information was Chair Warsh's willingness to follow through on its commitment to fight inflation.

最近的核心通胀数据比预期更强劲，但细节并非全面过热。

Recent core inflation data were firmer than expected, but the details were not uniformly hot.

部分上涨集中在少数几个类别。

Some of the upside was concentrated in a handful of categories.

住房成本依然疲软，关税传导效应似乎正在减弱。

Shelter remained soft, and tariff pass through appears to be fading.

这给了美联储采取行动的空间，而不会迫使投资者认为我们正在进入另一场2022年式的紧缩周期。

That gave the Fed room to act without forcing investors to assume we are heading into another 2022 style tightening campaign.

在我看来，这次加息可以增强可信度。

In my view, the hike can enhance credibility.

如果投资者相信美联储行动够早，能控制住通胀，那么更高的政策利率反而能降低不确定性和期限溢价，而不是自动推高长期融资成本。

If investors believe the Fed is acting early enough to contain inflation, a higher policy rate can reduce uncertainty and term premium rather than automatically driving long term financing costs higher.

但加息并不是我担心的问题。

But the rate hike is not my concern.

只要盈利保持强劲，未来一年再加几次息也不太可能终结这轮牛市。

A few additional hikes over the next year are unlikely to end this bull market if earnings remain strong.

更大的未知数是，在沃什领导下的美联储会如何处理资产负债表、货币供应和信贷增长。

The bigger unknown is how a Warsh led Fed approaches the balance sheet, money supply, and credit growth.

他的理念历来比前任美联储更偏向货币主义。

His philosophy has historically leaned more monetarist than the prior Fed shares.

不过，我们还不清楚他会多激进地实施这些理念，也不清楚他对委员会其他成员有多大影响力。

However, we still don't know how aggressively he will apply it or how much influence he will have over the rest of the committee.

这一点很重要，因为私人经济正在使用更多资本，如果流动性政策过于紧缩，其影响可能比政策利率本身更大。

That matters because the private economy is using more capital, and an overly restrictive approach to liquidity could become more consequential than the policy rate itself.

这也是我继续看好大盘优质股的原因之一。

This is one reason I continue to favor large cap quality.

高自由现金流收益率、低应计项目和运营效率这些因子表现领先，而人均销售额高的因子最近一直是表现最强的之一。

High free cash flow yield, low accruals, and operational efficiency factors are leading, while the high sales per employee factor has been one of the strongest recent performers.

这也和我们偏好AI应用方而非基础设施方的观点高度一致。

This also aligns closely with our preference for AI adopters rather than enablers.

价格动量并没有消失，但其构成正在转向质量、服务导向、轻资产和收费模式的业务。

Price momentum is not disappearing, but its composition is changing towards quality, services oriented, asset light, and fee based businesses.

这正是周期中期过渡阶段应该发生的情况。

That's exactly what should happen during a mid cycle transition.

近期的波动因素仍然是能源价格。

The near term swing factor remains energy prices.

如果原油或成品油价格再次大幅上涨，将对预期的政策路径、长期收益率和债券波动率产生不健康的压力。

Another meaningful rise in crude or refined products would put upward pressure on the expected policy path, long end yields, and bond volatility in an unhealthy way.

而且这还会发生在中期选举季节往往导致指数回调5%到10%的时期。

It would also arrive during a period when midterm election seasonality often produces a five to 10% index correction.

在近期最坏的情况下，标普500指数可能跌至7100点附近，但我会把这视为牛市中的战术性回调，而不是我们基本观点的改变。

In a worst case near term scenario, the S and P 500 could trade near 7,100, but I would view that as a tactical correction within the bull market, not a change in our fundamental views.

不管怎样，我仍然坚持我们年底八千点的目标价。

Either way, I remain convicted in our eight thousand year end price target.

说到底，这个市场的表现完全符合周期中段应有的样子。

The bottom line is that this market is behaving exactly like a mid cycle market should.

估值在压缩，盈利在扛大梁，领涨的股票正在转向优质公司。

Valuations are compressing, earnings are carrying the load, and leadership is moving towards quality.

指数看起来可能很平静，但很多担忧其实已经在个股层面被消化了。

The index may look calm, but plenty of concern has already been priced at the stock level.

如果搞混了韧性和自满，就会错过眼前正在发生的板块轮动，那才是真正的错误。

The mistake would be confusing resiliency with complacency and missing the rotation taking place in plain sight.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望你觉得这期内容有信息量、有帮助。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎给我们留言评论，告诉我们你的想法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果你觉得这些市场观点有价值，就告诉朋友或同事来试试吧。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

以上内容仅供参考，基于制作时获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不是要约或招揽，也不是税务或法律建议。

It is not an or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它没有考虑你的财务状况和目标，可能不适合你。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.