Mounting Evidence of a Market Rebound

欢迎来到市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利的首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and chief US equity strategist.

在今天的播客中，我将讨论为什么股票投资者有时需要从新闻头条中抽离出来。

Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing why equity investors sometimes need to look away from the headlines.

今天是4月13日，星期一，纽约时间上午11:30，我们开始吧。

It's Monday, April 13 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

今天，我想谈谈我认为许多投资者目前正面临的难题——时机把握。

Today, I wanna talk about something I think a lot of investors are struggling with right now, and that's timing.

当我与人们交谈时，发现市场对大多数人来说仍显得脆弱。

When I talk to people, markets still feel fragile to most.

地缘政治、央行、石油，方方面面都充满不确定性。

There's uncertainty around geopolitics, central banks, oil, you name it.

但当我观察市场实际在做什么——不是感觉，而是它传递的信息时，我得出了完全不同的结论。

But when I look at what the market is actually doing, not what it feels like, but what it's telling us, I come away with a very different conclusion.

市场在这次调整中的进展比大多数人认为的要远得多。

The market is further along than most people think in this correction.

事实上，在过去几周里，标普500指数从我们一直关注的6300至6500关键区间低位强劲反弹了近7%。

In fact, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen the S and P 500 bounce meaningfully almost 7% from the lows after holding that critical 6,300 to 6,500 range that we've been focused on.

在我看来，这并非偶然。

To me, that's not random.

这是市场在发出明确信号之前，已经构筑了底部。

That's the market carving out a low ahead of an all clear signal.

从更宏观的角度看，我的整体观点没有改变。

And stepping back, my broader view hasn't changed.

我仍然认为，我们正处在一个始于去年四月、从2022至2025年周期性衰退中走出的新牛市中。

I still think we're in a new bull market that began last April coming out of that rolling recession between 2022 and 2025.

这次调整是这一周期的一部分，而非它的终结。

This correction is part of that cycle, not the end of it.

更重要的是，大部分艰难的工作已经完成。

And importantly, a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done.

估值已经显著压缩。

Valuations have compressed significantly.

远期市盈率从高点到低点下降了约18%，而在更深层面上，超过一半的股票跌幅已达20%或以上。

Forward price earnings multiples have fallen about 18% from top to bottom, and beneath the surface, more than half the stocks are down 20% or more.

这是一个已经充分消化了诸多风险的市场，无论是战争、私人信贷担忧，还是人工智能的冲击。

That's a market that's already discounted a lot of risk, whether it's the war, private credit concerns, or AI disruption.

与此同时，收益却朝着相反的方向发展。

At the same time, earnings are moving in the opposite direction.

过去收益增长率约为15%，而未来收益增长率已超过20%。

Trailing earnings growth is running around 15%, and forward earnings growth is up over 20%.

这种市盈率下降与收益上升的组合，是典型的牛市修正行为，而非熊市。

That combination of falling multiples and rising earnings is a classic bull market correction behavior, not a bear market.

这就是为什么我认为许多人对当前环境产生了误读。

And that's why I think many are misreading this environment.

我认为这一点尤其明显的一个领域是能源。

One area where I think that's especially clear is energy.

如果你观察价格走势，能源股在相对表现上似乎已经见顶。

If you look at the price action, energy stocks appear to have already peaked in relative terms.

这通常是一个信号，表明 underlying 商品——在这种情况下是石油——也可能已经见顶，或者至少正在企稳，这引出了我认为当前推动市场波动的真正原因：利率。

That's often a signal that the underlying commodity, in this case, oil, may have already peaked as well or at least it's stabilizing, which brings me to what I think is really driving volatility now, interest rates.

我们再次进入了一个股票与收益率呈负相关的关系 regime。

We're back in a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated.

这意味着更高的利率再次成为股市的阻力，而央行近期针对通胀的鹰派立场正在制造更紧缩的金融环境。

That means higher rates are a headwind for equities again, and the recent hawkish tone from central banks that's focused on inflation is creating tighter financial conditions.

在我看来，这才是最后的障碍，而不是战争，也不是石油，而是货币政策。

In my view, that's the final hurdle, not the war, not oil, but monetary policy.

有趣的是这一点。

And here's the interesting part.

紧缩的金融环境也正是最终迫使央行转向的原因。

Tightening financial conditions are also what ultimately forced central banks to pivot.

因此，今天制造焦虑的因素，可能正是明天带来缓解的契机。

So the very thing creating anxiety today may be what sets up relief tomorrow.

如果我们正处于这一调整的后期阶段，下一个问题就是仓位配置。

Now if we're in the later stages of this correction, the next question is positioning.

对我而言，这仍然是关于哑铃策略。

For me, it's still about a barbell.

一方面，我喜欢周期性股票，比如金融、工业和可选消费类股票，这些行业的盈利依然强劲，估值也已调整到位。

On one side, I like cyclicals like financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks where the earnings remain strong and valuations have reset.

另一方面是优质成长股，特别是超大规模云服务商，尽管市场情绪已极度低迷，但基本面依然稳固。

On the other side is quality growth, in particular, the hyperscalers where sentiment has been washed out but fundamentals remain intact.

这一组合在市场低点时表现良好，我认为在这里依然合理。

That combination has worked well at the lows so far, and I think it continues to make sense here.

当我进一步放大视角时，还有一个更大的趋势正在形成，那就是经济的再平衡——这是我们早在去年11月的2026年展望中讨论过的核心主题。

When I zoom out even further, there's a bigger theme developing as well, and that's the rebalancing of the economy, a core theme we discussed in our 2026 outlook back in November.

我们开始看到明确的证据，表明增长正从公共部门转向私营部门。

We're starting to see hard evidence that growth is shifting from the public to the private economy.

私营部门的就业在增强，资本投资正在回升，企业行为表明，当前的不确定性是暂时的，而非结构性的。

Private payrolls are strengthening, capital investment is picking up, and companies are behaving as if the current uncertainty is temporary, not structural.

这是一场按部就班的复苏。

This is the rolling recovery on track.

同时，人工智能在短期内更多表现为利润率的助力，而非颠覆性力量，这支持了多个行业的运营杠杆。

At the same time, AI is acting more as a margin tailwind than a disruption, at least in the near term, and this supports operating leverage across many industries.

所有这些都强化了我的观点：复苏是真实的，且仍有上行空间。

All of that reinforces my view that the recovery is real and still has room to run.

因此，当我把所有这些综合起来看，这就是我的结论。

So when I put it all together, here's where I land.

市场已经消化了大量利空消息。

The market has already discounted a lot of bad news.

它已经调整了估值、重新定位了仓位，并吸收了市场风险。

It's adjusted valuations, reset positioning, and absorb market risks.

剩下的风险在于政策，以及利率和流动性保持紧缩的时间有多长。

What risk remains is policy and how long rates and liquidity stay restrictive.

但市场不会等待对此问题的明确答案。

But markets don't wait for clarity on that.

它们会提前行动。

They move ahead of it.

所以我的建议是。

So here's my advice.

利用任何进一步的担忧，在市场明显之前投入资本，因为市场不会等人。

Take advantage of any further worries and put capital to work before it's obvious because the market waits for no one.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望您觉得内容有信息量且有用。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

请通过留下评论告诉我们您的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果您觉得关于市场的见解有价值，请告诉朋友或同事也来试试。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

上述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不是要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.