油价前景：定价中纳入更多风险

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德鲁·谢茨。

I'm Andrew Sheets, global head of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley.

我是摩根士丹利大宗商品研究主管马丁·拉茨。

I'm Martijn Rats, head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天在节目中，经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输仍然受到限制。

And today in the program, oil flows through the Strait Of Hormuz remain restrict.

这将对全球能源市场产生什么影响，未来又将如何发展。

The implications for global energy markets and what may lie ahead.

现在是4月1日，星期三，伦敦时间下午2点。

It's Wednesday, April 1 at 2PM in London.

所以，马丁，很高兴再次和你坐下来交谈。

So, Martin, it's great to sit down with you again.

三周前，我们还在讨论这个话题，当时对霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致石油市场严重中断及其对全球经济的连锁影响感到担忧。

Three weeks ago, we were having this conversation, a conversation that was a little bit alarming about the scale of the disruption in the oil market with the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz and how that could have ripple effects through the global economy.

三周过去了，石油仍然无法通行。

Three weeks later, oil is still not flowing.

发生了什么？过去几周里，有哪些情况符合你的预期，又有哪些出乎意料？

What is happening, and what has maybe surprised you or been in line with expectations over the last couple of weeks?

是的。

Yeah.

许多情况都符合预期，比如我们看到海峡关闭的影响最先出现在距离海峡地理上最近的地区。

Many things have been in line with expectations, in the sense that we're seeing the effects of the closure of the Strait the earliest in regions that are physically the closest to the Strait.

因此，我们首先在印度西海岸等地看到了实物短缺的迹象。

So we saw the first examples of physical shortages in, say, the West Coast Of India.

从那里开始，影响波及了整个亚洲。

From there on, it's reverberated throughout Asia.

在亚洲，我们也看到了预期中的价格走势。

Also, in Asia, we're seeing the type of prices that you would expect.

船舶用重油的价格在每桶150至200美元之间。

Bunker fuel for shipping somewhere between 150 to $200 a barrel.

航空燃油超过每桶200美元。

Jet fuel over $200 a barrel.

石脑油正运往日本。

Naphta going into Japan.

石脑油通常交易价格远低于布伦特原油的 headline 价格。

Naphta normally trades well below the headline price of Brent.

现在每桶130美元。

Now $130 a barrel.

这比二月份高出两倍多。

That's more than double what it was in February.

这些情况揭示了这一历史性事件的全貌。

So those things tell the story of this historic event.

另一方面令人惊讶的是，我们最关注的许多原油价格反应却非常缓慢。

What has been surprising on the other end is how slow the reaction has been in many of the oil prices that we track the most.

人们在新闻中看到的数字。

Numbers people will see on the news.

你知道吗，我们说话的时候，油价可能已经到每桶100美元了。

You know, it's a $100 a barrel maybe as we're talking.

是的。

Yeah.

看到鹿特丹的航空燃油现货价格超过每桶200美元，而布伦特原油主力合约却只交易在100美元，这真有点奇怪。

It's strange to see jet fuel cargoes in Rotterdam more than $200 a barrel, but then the front month Brent future only trading at a 100.

这种价差在历史上非常宽，令人非常惊讶。

That spread is historically wide and very surprising.

但话说回来，这背后是有原因的。

But, look, there are some reasons for it.

原油市场当时有更多缓冲空间。

The crude market had more buffers.

还有其他一些因素。

There are a few other things.

但布伦特原油期货上涨得如此缓慢，确实有点出人意料。

But how slow Brent future have rallied, that has been somewhat surprising.

但你知道，从你提到的那些其他价格来看——亚洲的价格、鹿特丹的价格，这些价格可能比人们在新闻或财经网站上看到的数字要高——在你看来，这是否意味着市场确实受到了影响，而且影响程度可能比 headline 油价所显示的还要大？

But, you know, from those other prices you mentioned, those those prices in Asia, those prices in Rotterdam that are are maybe higher than the numbers that people might see on the news or on a financial website, is it fair to say that in your mind, that's sending a signal that this is a market that really is being affected by this and being affected maybe in a larger way than the headline oil price might suggest?

哦，当然。

Oh, clearly.

你看。

Look.

石油市场充满了各种细微的价格信号，这些信号揭示了石油市场底层运作的真实情况。

The oil market is full with small price signals that tell the story of the underlying plumbing of the oil market.

你可以观察价格差异，或者实物交割的货物与金融期货之间的区别。

So you can look at price differentials or physically delivered cargoes versus financially traded futures.

西非石油与北海石油、巴西石油与北海石油、即期实物交割石油与一个月后交易的期货合约之间的对比。

West African oil versus North Sea oil, Brazilian oil versus North Sea oil, oil for immediate physical delivery versus the futures contract that trades a month out.

许多这些价差都已飙升至历史最高水平。

And many of those spreads have rallied to all time highs.

这绝非夸大其词。

That is no exaggeration.

因此，从底层来看，市场中的压力显然是存在的。

And so in an underlying sense, the stress in the market is clearly there.

只是在布伦特期货面前，这是全球投资者表达对石油金融观点的首选工具。

It is just that in front of Brent futures, which is the world's preferred speculative instrument to express a financial view on oil.

是的。

Yeah.

在那里，影响的显现要慢一些。

There, the impact has been slower to come.

但你现在看到许多亚洲炼油厂在竞购大西洋盆地更远地区的原油。

But you're now seeing a lot of Asian refineries bidding for crudes that are further away in the Atlantic Basin.

因此，需求正向更远的地区扩散，这最终仍会对布伦特油价构成上行压力。

So demand is spreading to further away regions, that should over time still put upward pressure on Brent.

在我们第一次交谈时，你曾详细梳理过霍尔木兹海峡这一中断事件在全球背景下的规模，谈到了涉及多少桶石油，以及这占全球市场的比例。

In our first conversation, you know, you had this great walkthrough of both just putting the scale of this disruption in the Strait Of Hormuz into the global context, how many barrels we're talking about, how that's a share of the global market.

也许重新回顾一下这些数据，以及一些缓解因素，会有所帮助。

Maybe it just might be helpful to to revisit those numbers again and and also some of the mitigation factors.

你知道，我们之前讨论过，也许可以释放战略储备。

You know, we talked about, well, maybe we could release reserves.

也许可以重新调整一些管道的走向。

Maybe some pipelines could be rerouted.

根据你目前在实地看到的情况，这种中断看起来是什么样子？

Based on what you're currently seeing on the ground, what is this disruption looking like?

是的。

Yeah.

为了更好地理解，全球石油消费量略高于每天一亿桶。

So to put things in context, global oil consumption is a bit more than a 100,000,000 barrels a day.

这个数字很多人都心里有数。

That number lives in a lot of people's heads.

但如果你看对价格形成至关重要的市场，那实际上是海运市场。

But if you look at the markets that is critical for price formation, that's really the seaborne market.

你可以想象，比如你在中国，出现了短缺，但有一条从加拿大到美国的管道，这条管道其实对你帮助不大。

You can imagine that if, say, you're in China, and you have a shortage, but there is a pipeline from Canada into The United States, that pipeline is not really going to help you.

你需要的是能运送到上海港口的货物。

What you need is a cargo that can be delivered to a port in Shanghai.

因此，海上市场才是价格形成的地方。

So the seaborne market is where prices are formed.

这个市场大约每天6000万桶，其中每天有2000万桶通过霍尔木兹海峡。对于相关市场而言，霍尔木兹海峡的流量约占三分之一。

That is roughly a 60,000,000 barrel a day market, of which 20,000,000 barrels a day flows through the Strait Of So for the relative market, the Strait Of Hormuz is about a third.

这个规模非常非常大。

It's very, very large.

现在，这每天2000万桶的流量原则上都属于受影响范围。

Now, out of that 20,000,000 barrel a day, that is in principle in scope.

仍然有一些伊朗石油继续通过该海峡运输。

There is still a little bit of Iranian oil flowing through that continues.

他们让自己的油轮通行。

They let their own car go through.

然后沙特阿拉伯拥有东西管道。

Then Saudi Arabia has the East West pipeline.

他们可以将一些波斯湾的石油 diverted 到红海。

They can divert some oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

这比该管道已有的流量额外增加了约每天400万桶。

That's about 4,000,000 barrels a day incremental on top of the flow that already existed on that pipeline.

阿联酋有一条每天可分流50万桶的管道。

The UAE has a pipeline that can divert half a million barrel a day.

但你仍然面临一个大约千万桶每天的问题。

But you are still left with a problem that is in the order of ish million barrels a day.

你可以动用一些战略石油储备来部分缓解这一问题，但全球战略石油储备的释放能力可能只有每天100万到200万桶。

You're gonna have some SPR releases to offset that a little bit, but global SPRs can flow maybe one to 2,000,000 barrels a day.

你很快就会面临两位数的供应缺口，这在历史上是前所未有的。

You're very quickly left with a double digit shortage, and that is historically large.

为了回到历史背景，如果我们把每天1400万桶的中断放在人们可能记得的一些历史石油中断事件中来看，它的相对规模如何？

And and and just to take it to history, I mean, again, if we were placing a 14,000,000 barrel a day disruption in the context of some of these historical oil disruptions that people might have a memory of, what is the relative scale?

是的，这正是为什么当前时期如此难以应对的核心原因。

Yeah, this is at the heart of why this is such a difficult period to manage.

通常情况下，我们关注的是五十万到一百万桶/天的供需失衡，这才会引起石油分析师的兴趣。

Like normally, we care about imbalances of half a million to a million, that gets interesting for oil analysts.

一百万桶/天的缺口，你就能预期价格出现波动。

A million, you can expect prices to move.

如果供应和需求出现两百万到三百万桶/天的错配，就会引发历史上极为剧烈的波动，这种波动我们能谈论几十年，真的。

If you have dislocations in supply and demand of say two to 3,000,000 barrels a day, you have historically epic moves that we talk about for decades, literally.

比如2008年，油价从每桶130美元暴跌至30美元，原因就是连续两个季度每天多出两百万到三百万桶的供应。

Like in 2008, oil fell from $130 a barrel to 30 on the basis of two to three quarters of 2,000,000 barrel day oversupply.

2022年，俄乌战争爆发前后，油价从每桶60到70美元飙升至峰值约130美元，但那只是预期，尚未成为现实。

In 2022, around the Ukraine invasion, oil went from $60.70 bucks to something like 130 at the peak on the basis of the expectation, but not not realized.

当时只是预期俄罗斯会损失每天三百万桶的产能。

This was just an expectation that Russia would lose 3,000,000 barrels a day of of productive capacity.

所以，通常两百万到三百万桶/天的缺口，就足以引发这种极端的价格波动。

And so two to 3,000,000 barrels a day normally already gets us to these outsized moves.

而这次事件的规模是那个级别的四到五倍。

And so this event is four or five times larger than that.

这意味着我们没有关于当前发生情况的历史参考。

That means we don't have a historical reference for for what's currently happening.

我想现在把重点放在未来。

I I guess I'd like to now focus on the future.

也许我可以请你用极其简化的说法，总结两个高度复杂的场景。

And and maybe I'll ask you to summarize two highly complex scenarios in a in a overly simplified way.

但假设今晚我们收到公告，称敌对行动已经停止，海峡已开放，石油可以再次流通；或者第二种情况，再过三周，我们再次进行这场对话时，海峡仍然关闭。

But let's say tonight, we get an announcement that hostilities have ceased, that The Strait is open, that oil can flow again, or a second scenario where it's another three weeks from now, we're having this conversation again, and The Strait is still closed.

你能帮听众理解一下，在这两种情况下，能源市场可能会是什么样子吗？

Could you just kinda help listeners understand what the energy market could look like under each of those scenarios.

是的。

Yeah.

也许我们可以先从后一种情况开始，因为从分析角度来看，这个情况可能稍微容易一些。

So maybe to start off with the latter one, because from an analytical perspective, that one is is perhaps a bit easier.

如果海峡持续关闭，最终消费量必须下降。

Look, if the Strait stays closed, at some point, consumption needs to decline.

显著地。

When Significantly.

是的，显著地，我们需要需求削减。

Yeah, significantly, we need demand destruction.

说起来容易做起来难。

Now that's easier said than done.

在这样的环境中，谁能消费取决于谁愿意支付最高价格。

Who gets to consume in those type of environments are those who are willing to pay the most.

这意味着某些消费者将被价格排除出市场。

And that means that certain consumers need to be priced out of the market.

我们在2022年尝试过回答这个问题。

We tried to answer this question in 2022.

我们所有人共同得出的答案是，布伦特原油价格需要达到150美元左右（按当时货币计算）。

And the collective answer that we all came up with is that you need prices for Brent in money of the day, 150 or something thereabouts.

这并不是夸张。

That is not an exaggeration.

现在，让我们都希望可以避免这种情况，因为这看起来虽然像是一个惊人的价格，但对经济中的任何人来说都不是一个有利的场景。

Now, let's all hope we can avoid that scenario because that is, you know, that looks like a spectacular price, but that is not a beneficial scenario for anybody in the economy.

另一种情况则更有趣，实际上可以分为两个子场景。

The other scenario is more interesting, and it can actually be split in sort of two sub scenarios.

这是那种实际上——是的，情况。

And this is the scenario where where actually Yeah.

东西明天就开始流动了。

Stuff starts flowing tomorrow.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

如果它像以往那样完全畅通无阻地流动，那我们当然会回到这些事件发生前的状态，布伦特油价可能会大幅下跌至70美元。

If it completely flows like it always did, sure, we go back to the situation we had before these events, Brent can fall substantially $70.

在这些事件发生之前，我们认为石油市场会出现供过于求。

Before before these events, we thought the oil market would be oversupplied.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

真正的航行自由，甚至可能更低。

True freedom of navigation, maybe even lower.

但目前看来，这似乎不会是我们面前即将发生的情景。

But at the moment that doesn't quite look like that that will be the scenario that's in front of us.

似乎正在出现一种结果：局势可能缓和，但伊朗政权仍将结构性地控制通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动。

What seems to be emerging is an outcome whereby this could de escalate, but leave the Iranian regime structurally in control of the flow of oil through the Strait Of Hormuz.

如果伊朗政权继续像现在这样逐批管理石油流动——因为有一些货物正在缓慢流出，并且似乎已经建立了一套流程。

And if the Iranian regime continues to manage the flow as they currently do, cargo by cargo, because there are some cargoes trickling out and there is a process that seems to be established for it.

似乎存在一种收费机制。

There seems to be a toll that seems to be paid.

鉴于这将掌控全球20%的石油供应，这已不再是以前的石油市场了。

Given that that will then manage 20% of global oil supply, that is not the same oil market that we had before.

所有欧佩克的闲置产能都将置于这一体系之后。

Like, all of OPEC's spare capacity would be behind this system.

如果发生紧急情况，这些闲置产能还能否动用？

Would that spare capacity be available in the case of an emergency?

也许可以。

Maybe.

也许不行。

Maybe not.

这只是众多问题中的一个，但如果伊朗继续控制霍尔木兹海峡，我们就再也回不到过去那个石油市场了。

This is only one of many questions, but if the Iranians stay in control of the Strait, we will not return to the oil market that we once knew.

我们是否可以这样说，未来可能需要更高的长期油价和更高的风险溢价来抵消部分影响？

And is that fair to say we might need a higher long term oil price, a higher risk premium in future oil prices to offset some of that?

是的。

Yes.

我认为这种情况非常有可能。

I would say that that is very likely.

首先，大量供应将从根本上变得不可靠。

First, a lot of the supply would be fundamentally less reliable.

其次，系统中的有效闲置产能将微乎其微。

Second, we would have de minimis effective spare capacity in the system.

第三，如果我们面临这种情况，这将给各国带来巨大动力去扩大战略储备，而建设战略库存就像增加需求。

Thirdly, if this is the scenario we are left with, that creates an enormous incentive for countries to start expanding their strategic storages, and building strategic inventories is like exerting demand.

在过去两年里，中国已经建立了大量战略储备。

China has built a lot of strategic storage over the last two years.

相比没有建立的话，他们现在的情况更好了。

They are now in a better shape than if they hadn't.

在西方，我们历来都有战略储备。

In the West, we've historically had strategic storage.

但比如印度，就没有战略储备。

But India, for example, has none.

因此，东南亚其他地区也没有战略储备。

And so the rest of Southeast Asia, no strategic storage.

大量的战略储备采购将对价格形成支撑。

A lot of strategic storage buying that will is price supportive.

而且，我们要关注的价格是布伦特原油和WTI原油的价格。

And also, look, the prices that we care about are the price of Brent and WTI.

它们并不位于霍尔木兹海峡之后。

And they are are not behind the Strait Of Hormuz.

它们的交付安全性更高。

They have higher security of delivery.

你可以完全理解炼油厂为何愿意为这些原油支付溢价，相对于其他原油。

You can totally see how refineries would be willing to pay a premium for those crudes relative to others.

因此，综合所有这些因素，会形成一个更高的风险溢价，人们尤其愿意为那些符合我们对石油市场认知的原油支付这一溢价。

So when you add all of that up, it leaves you with a higher risk premium that people would pay, particularly for the crudes that from our perceptions about the oil market.

马丁，我最后想问你一个问题，就是美国在这一切中扮演了什么角色。

Martijn, one final question I'd love to ask you about is how The US fits into all of this.

你知道，人们常常有一种看法，认为美国已经实现了能源独立。

You know, you do encounter this perception that The US is energy independent.

它生产大量石油。

It produces a lot of oil.

从进出口来看，它是能源净中性的。

It it's net energy neutral in terms of its imports, exports.

如果我说得不对，你可以纠正我。

You can you can correct me to the extent that that's correct.

但你认为美国在能源上相对于外界情况更加孤立，这种说法在多大程度上是正确的？

But to what extent do you think it's true that The US is more isolated energy wise from what's going on?

考虑到全球相互关联的市场，这种看法在多大程度上可能具有误导性？

And to what extent do you think that that could be a little bit misleading given a a global interconnected market?

你看。

Look.

美国比许多其他国家处境更好。

The United States is in a better position than many other countries.

这毫无疑问。

That's for sure.

但现实情况是，这更多是一个数量上的论点，而不是价格上的论点。

But the practical reality is also that that is, I would just say, mostly sort of a volume argument, but not a price argument.

美国是石油的净出口国，但这是在大量进口和大量出口之后的净结果。

The United States is a net exporter of oil, but that is a net effect after very large imports and very large exports.

只是出口量略大于进口量。

It's just that the exports are a little bit bigger than the imports.

所以双方的流量都非常大。

So it's a lot of flow in both directions.

双方的流量都非常巨大，最终将美国与世界其他地区联系在一起。

There is an enormous flow in both directions, and that connects The United States with the rest of the world in the end.

在海运市场上，实际上只有一个油价，我们都得支付这个价格，包括美国。

In the seaborne market, there really is only one oil price, and we all pay it, including The United States.

但尽管如此，与世界其他地区相比，

But nevertheless, relative to other parts of the world,

是的，处境更好。

yeah, better positioned.

但仍然无法置身事外。

But still not immune from what's going on.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们都息息相关。

We're all connected.

马丁，和你交谈非常愉快。

Martin, it's been wonderful talking with you.

我希望很快能再和你聊聊，如果我们三周后还没再联系，那或许是个好迹象。

And while I hope to catch up with you again soon, if we're not talking again in three weeks, it maybe is a good sign.

可能是。

Might be.

谢谢，安德鲁。

Thanks, Andrew.

再次感谢您抽出时间。

And thank you as always for your time.

如果您觉得《市场中的思考》有帮助，请在您收听的平台留下评价，并今天告诉一位朋友或同事我们的节目。

If you find Thoughts in the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or a colleague about us today.

前述内容仅为信息性参考，基于发布时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它并非任何要约，也非

It is not an offer nor

是

is

税务或法律建议。

it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.