石油冲击冲击美国消费者

欢迎来到《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利美国及全球经济学团队的阿鲁尼玛·辛哈。

I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's US and global economics teams.

我是阿里安娜·萨尔瓦托雷，负责人

And I'm Ariana Salvatore, head

美国政策战略。

of US policy strategy.

今天，持续的石油中断对美国消费者有何影响？

Today, what are the implications of the ongoing oil disruption for The US consumer?

现在是纽约时间3月18日星期三上午10点。

It's Wednesday, March 18 at 10AM in New York.

阿里安娜，让我们从这场石油中断的第三周开始，谈谈你对可能的解决路径有何看法。

Ariana, let's start with where we are in week three of this particular oil disruption and what you're thinking about in terms of what the paths to resolution could look like.

是的。

Yeah.

很好的切入点。

Great place to start.

所以我认为，在讨论可能的解决方案之前，我们需要先思考这场冲突可能持续多久。

So I would say before we get into what the resolution could look like, we need to think about how long could this conflict possibly last.

这对投资者来说也是最相关的问题。

And that's the most relevant question for investors as well.

而在这方面，由于这场冲突的不确定性，目前几乎没有明确的判断。

And there I would say there's very little conviction just because of the uncertainty associated with this conflict.

但我正在关注三件事情。

But I'm keeping my eye on three different things.

第一是明确与这场冲突相关的目标优先级。

The first is a clear prioritization of the objectives tied to the conflict.

特朗普政府已经提出了多项冲突目标，其中一些目标的时限较短，另一些则较长。

The Trump administration has laid out a number of different goals for this conflict, some of which are shorter in nature than others.

第二件我认为非常重要的事情是霍尔木兹海峡的航运情况。

The second thing I think we're looking at that's really important is traffic at the Strait Of Hormuz.

在这方面，特朗普政府谈到了保险、海军护航等措施，我们认为这些措施要真正落实还需要一些时间。

And there, the Trump administration has spoken about insurance, you know, naval escorts, all of these things that we think will take some time to really come to fruition.

在我们录制这段内容时，似乎每天通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮数量仍处于个位数的低位。

And at the time that we're recording this, it seems that we're still getting about low single digit number of tankers through the Strait on a daily basis.

所以这是第二点。

So that's the second thing.

我要提出的第三点是，任何类型的升级都至关重要。

The third point I would make is any type of escalation is really critical here.

无论是纵向升级，比如使用不同类型的武器、攻击不同目标，还是横向升级，即冲突扩大到更多地区代理方，这些都是非常重要的指标。

So whether it's vertical, meaning different types of weapons used, different types of targets being hit, or horizontal escalation broadening out into different proxies, and and more so throughout the region, those are really important indicators.

而目前，所有这些迹象都表明，这场冲突的持续时间可能会比大多数人最初预期的要长一些。

And right now, all of these things are pointing to a slightly longer term conflict than I think most people expected at the start.

现在，关于这对市场、国内汽油价格意味着什么，这些都是非常重要且我相信我们接下来会深入探讨的问题。

Now, in terms of what that means for markets, for domestic gasoline prices, all these are really important questions that I'm sure we're gonna get into.

但我们需要注意到，总统已经提到过若干政策对冲措施，以缓解这些价格上涨，范围从财政部放宽对俄罗斯的部分制裁以允许其出售石油等。

But what we should note is that the president has spoken about a number of policy offsets to mitigate those price increases, ranging from the Treasury actually loosening up some of the sanctions on Russia to sell some oil.

你知道，我们听到一些关于豁免《琼斯法案》的讨论。

You know, we've heard some talk of invoking the Jones Act waiver.

那只是权宜之计。

That's a temporary fix.

总体来看，我们认为这些政策缓解措施不足以弥补我们正在经历的供应损失。

On net, we think that these policy offsets are not gonna really be enough to mitigate that supply loss that we're getting.

这相当于每天损失两千万桶。

That's a 20,000,000 barrel per day loss.

这些措施主要只能覆盖大约七百万到八百万桶每天的缺口。

Some of these efforts mainly will will kind of target about seven or 8,000,000 barrels per day.

你仍然面临大约一千万到一千三百万桶的缺口。

You're still in a deficit of about 10 to 13.

这对市场、消费以及其间所有方面都意义重大，正如你所知。

And that's really meaningful for markets, for consumption as you well know, and everything else in between.

这个视角非常有帮助，阿里安娜。

That's really helpful perspective, Ariana.

这也为我们提供了一个很好的过渡，来思考几天前我们共同发布的那份报告，以及它对美国消费者意味着什么。

And it's also a useful segue to think about the note that we jointly put out a few days ago and just thinking about what this means for for The US consumer.

在这方面，我认为首先要指出的是，消费者现在将经历五年内的第三次供应冲击。

And there, I think there's the first point to start with is that the consumer is now going to be living through the third supply shock in about five years.

继新冠疫情之后，接着是关税，现在又来了下一轮。

So after COVID, after tariffs, here comes the next.

我认为这次石油冲击与关税有所不同，因为这次会直接、前端地冲击消费者。

And I think this particular oil shock is going to be somewhat different from tariffs in the sense that this is going to hit consumers at the front end and directly.

这并不是一种需要通过企业成本传导的影响，部分成本可能由企业吸收，而不会完全转嫁给消费者。

This is not something that is going to have to pass through business costs, some of them could be absorbed by businesses and not fully passed on to the consumer.

所以我认为这是一个重要的观点。

So I think that's an important point.

第二个要点是，从汽油支出占总支出的比例来看，目前我们的比例已经很低了。

The second point here here is that in terms of the share of spending of gasoline out of total spend, we are at pretty low numbers.

我们大约处于2%到3%的区间。

We're somewhere in the two to 3% range.

因此这可能会提供一些缓冲空间。

So it could give a little bit of a cushion.

所以长期平均值可能在4%左右，因此可能还有一些缓冲余地。

So the longer term average can be somewhere about 4%, so there could be some cushion.

但我们知道，消费者已经因多年来的高价格而承受了巨大压力。

But we know that consumers have already been stretched by sort of several years of high prices.

因此，我们思考高油价（转化为高汽油价格）可能对消费者产生影响的渠道时，我认为可以归纳为三个方面。

And so the way that we thought about what some of the channels could be for how higher oil prices, which translate into higher gas prices, could matter for the consumer, I think there are sort of three to identify.

第一个是，这直接削弱了你的实际购买力，因为这是一种很难替代的商品。

The first one is that it is really just a hit to your real purchasing power because this is a type of good that is actually really hard to substitute away from.

你可以在初期部分消化这种影响。

And you could look through some of it at the start.

所以也许在第一个月，你的反应并不明显。

So maybe in the first month, you don't react very much.

你会动用一些储蓄。

You pull down on some savings.

你借一点短期信贷。

You take out a little bit of short term credit.

但持续时间越长，消费反应就会越大。

But the longer it lasts, the bigger the consumption response is going to be.

第二个渠道是，你会开始增加预防性储蓄动机，因为这种不确定性也会持续一段时间。

And the second channel then to identify is you start to, build up some precautionary savings motives because there's this uncertainty that's also lasting for some time.

那你会削减哪些支出呢？

And what do you pull back on?

你通常会减少非必需类的支出。

You'll typically pull back on discretionary types of spending.

因此，我们估算出，如果油价上涨50%并持续两到三个季度，十二个月后可能会使实际个人消费增长下降约40个基点。

And so, we sized out this impact to say that if oil prices were to be about 50% higher and they last for two to three quarters, it could hit real personal spending growth by about 40 bps after twelve months.

而其中大部分影响实际上来自于对商品支出的冲击，特别是耐用品方面。

And most of that is really just coming from the impact on good spending, specifically through durable goods.

因此，如果这一冲击持续更长时间，可能会对美国的实际消费者支出产生显著影响。

So there could be some meaningful impact to real consumer spending in The US if this shock were to go on longer.

我想说的最后一点是，通货膨胀预期是如何变化的？

And the last point I would just say is, you know, how do inflation expectations move?

因为这对美联储来说很重要，对那些考虑未来一年左右消费决策的人来说也很重要。

Because that's an important point for the Fed, and it's it's an important point for just people who are thinking about their spending decisions over the next year or so.

我认为，本周五发布的密歇根大学调查中出现了一个有趣的现象，这是一份初步调查结果。

And one interesting thing, I think, came out in the University of Michigan survey that came out this Friday, and this was a preliminary survey.

其中大约一半是在冲突开始前完成的，另一半是在冲突开始后完成的。

About half of it was conducted before the conflict started, and half of it was after the conflict started.

我们看到，未来一年的通货膨胀预期——即十二个月的预期——原本呈下降趋势，但现在已停滞，不再继续下降。

And what we saw was that inflation expectations in the year ahead, so the twelve month ahead expectations, that had been trending down paused, so they are no longer trending down.

在发布的报告中，密歇根大学指出，在冲突开始后收集的回应中，通货膨胀预期确实有所上升。

And in its release, the, University of Michigan noted that for the responses that were collected after the conflict started, inflation expectations did tick up.

有趣的是，受影响最严重的是低收入群体，他们的通货膨胀预期上升幅度更大。

And interestingly, the strains were the most for the bottom income cohort, so they saw a bigger uptick in inflation expectations.

他们对未来一年的失业预期也出现了更大的上升。

They actually also saw a bigger uptick in their unemployment expectations over the next year.

所以，Arunima，我可以问一下，今年我们一直在谈论K型经济。

So, Arunima, if I can ask, we've been talking a lot about the k shape economy this year.

对吧？

Right?

因此，消费主要由较高收入群体推动。

So consumption really being led by the upper let's call it the upper income cohort.

当我们思考这种消费转化时，就像你所说的，压力更多地落在了低收入群体身上。

When we think about this translation to consumption, like you said, more of the stress is on the lower income side.

你如何将这一点与你们预期的经济影响协调起来？

How do you square that with the economic impact that you guys are expecting?

我理解的方式是，如果这种情况持续得越久，资产市场的不确定性越大，那么高收入消费者也可能开始受到影响。

The way that I would square it is the longer it lasts and the greater the sort of uncertainty in asset markets, that might actually begin to weigh on the upper income consumer as well.

因此，这可能会使那些财富效应不如2025年大部分时间那样有力，毕竟目前消费的增速已经处于较高水平。

So that might make some of those wealth effects less supportive than what we have seen over most of 2025, just given where consumption has been running in terms of its pace.

因此，不仅随着这场冲击持续时间延长，低收入群体的压力会更大，我们甚至可能看到一些间接压力——不是通过汽油等直接支出渠道，而是通过它对家庭资产负债表的影响。

So not only might we see a bigger strain on the lower income cohorts as we see this shock lasting longer, we might actually see some pressures not through the direct spending channel on gas, but really just, you know, how it's impacting their balance sheets.

这是一个非常重要的观点，因为对我来说，它也呼应了‘可负担性’这一概念，过去几个月里，这一直是一个关键的政治议题。

And that's a really important point because it also, to me, resonates with the concept of affordability, which has been a really key political topic for the past few months, I would say.

我们对此的思考是，正如我提到的，能够用来缓解国内汽油价格上涨的政策缓冲手段非常有限。

And the way we're thinking about this is, like I mentioned, there are limited policy offsets that can be used to mitigate the potential increase in domestic gasoline prices.

这对中期选举影响重大。

And that matters a lot for the midterm elections.

通常情况下，选民在中期选举乃至一般选举中选择候选人时，并不会将外交政策列为首要议题。

Typically, voters don't really rank foreign policy as a top issue when it comes to their their choice for candidates in midterm elections and elections in general.

但一旦这种影响传导至通胀、生活成本、就业预期等方面，它就会真正引起人们的关注。

But once you see that feed through to, you know, inflation, cost of living, job expectations, that's when it starts to really matter for people.

我们一直认为，这虽然不是一条完美的经验法则，但回顾过去几场选举，如果美国的汽油价格在每加仑3美元左右，这对执政党通常是有利的。

And what we've been saying, it's not a perfect rule of thumb, but looking back at the past few elections, if gasoline prices here in The US are something like $3 a gallon, that tends to be pretty good for the incumbent party.

如果是4美元，政治压力就会稍微大一些。

4, let's say gets a little bit more politically challenging.

而到了5美元，那就进入了对政府和国会共和党人更为严峻的境地。

And five, you know, is when you kinda get into that even more challenging territory for the administration and for Republicans in Congress.

所以，这 again 不是一个完美的基准，但随着这场冲突的发展，我们也会持续关注。

So again, not a perfect benchmark, but something that we'll be keeping an eye on too as this conflict evolves.

好的。

Okay.

我们会密切关注这场石油中断对美国消费者的影响。

So we'll be keeping an eye on how that oil disruption plays out and matters for The US consumer.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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