特别加映：2026年美国展望：牛市中被低估的叙事

2025年伊始，人们预期经济增长将放缓，通胀居高不下。

2025 started with an expectation of slower economic growth and stubborn inflation.

尽管经济增长确实放缓了，但真正令人意外的是经济与金融市场之间的脱节。

While growth did cool, the real surprise was the disconnect between the economy and financial markets.

失业率高于预期，但市场展现出韧性，主要得益于人工智能驱动的资本支出繁荣。

Unemployment ran higher than projected, yet markets showed resilience, powered largely by an AI driven capital spending boom.

展望2026年，前景更加明朗。

Looking ahead to 2026, the backdrop is brighter.

全球经济增长预计将温和加速，通胀将在今年下半年缓解，实际收入有望提升。

Global growth should accelerate modestly, inflation should ease in the second half of the year, and real incomes look poised to improve.

我们预计美国将引领这一趋势，

We expect The U.

并继续对美国保持最积极的看法。

S.

美国。

To lead the charge and remain most constructive on The U.

S.

S.

市场。

Market.

感谢您在2025年全程收听，与我们一同应对塑造金融市场和社会的各类问题与事件。

Thank you for listening throughout 2025 as we've navigated these issues and events that shape financial markets and society.

我们希望您明年继续与我们同行，获取关于金融世界的最新资讯。

We hope that you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world.

本周，请欣赏过去几个月一些节目的重播，我们将在一月回归，带来全新的节目。

This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months, and we'll be back with all new episodes in January.

来自Thoughts on the Market全体团队，祝您节日快乐，新年幸福。

From all of us at thoughts on the market, happy holidays and a very happy New Year.

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是摩根士丹利首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管迈克·威尔逊。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天，我将讨论我们本周早些时候发布的2026年展望。

Today, I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week.

现在是纽约时间11月19日星期三上午6:30，我们开始吧。

It's Wednesday, November 19 at 06:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

2026年是我们过去一年所讲述的故事的延续。

2,026 is a continuation of the story we've been telling for the past year.

回顾一年前，我们对美国股市的展望是：上半年充满挑战，下半年则表现强劲。

Looking back to a year ago, our US equity outlook was for a challenging first half followed by a strong second half.

当时发布这一观点时，它与市场主流看法并不一致。

At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance.

许多人预期，随着特朗普总统就任第二任期，上半年将表现强劲，而由于通胀卷土重来，下半年将面临更多挑战。

Many expected a strong first half as president Trump took office for his second term and then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation.

我们独特的观点基于这样一个判断：新一届特朗普政府的政策排序将有意在初期采取抑制增长的措施。

We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start.

我们把这种策略比作一位新任CEO选择一次性释放所有问题，以清理局面，为后续积极的增长策略铺平道路。

We liken the strategy to a new CEO choosing to kitchen sink the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy.

我们认为这一转变会在年中前后发生。

We thought that transition would come around midyear.

特朗普第二次就任总统时，美国经济的闲置产能远少于他第一次上任时，这是我们预计政策顺序会不同的主要原因。

The US economy had much less slack when president Trump took office the second time compared to the first time he came into office, and this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently.

2024年底，收益修正、广泛性以及其他周期性指标均处于放缓阶段。

Earnings revisions, breadth, and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024.

相比之下，2017年初，当我们持非主流看涨观点时，收益修正、广泛性以及许多周期性指标在2015-2016年制造业和大宗商品低迷之后开始重新加速。

In contrast, at the beginning of 2017, when we were out of consensus bullish, earnings revision, breadth, and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 02/1516.

回顾今年，这种政策顺序的大致节奏基本得到了验证。

Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out.

但这一过程发生的速度和剧烈程度超出了我们的预期。

It just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected.

我们在政策方面的观点仍然与主流看法不一致。

Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus.

许多行业观察人士质疑，今年实施的政策最终能否推动未来的增长，尤其是对普通股票而言。

Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock.

从我们的角度来看，当前做出的政策选择有利于2026年的增长，且总体上符合我们‘全力推进’的理论。

From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our run it hot thesis.

我们的乐观看法中还蕴含着另一个因素。

There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take.

四月标志着始于三年前的周期性衰退的结束。

April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior.

最后阶段包括由多吉引发的政府部门衰退、变化率触底以及对人工智能资本支出和贸易政策的预期，还有仍在持续的消费者服务业衰退。

The final stages were a recession in government, thanks to Doge, a rate of change trough and expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing.

简而言之，我们认为一个新的牛市和周期性复苏始于四月，这意味着仍处于早期阶段，且并不明显，尤其对许多经济和市场中的滞后领域而言。

In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April, which means it's still early days and not obvious, especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market.

这正是机遇所在。

That is the opportunity.

在典型的新商业周期中，推动股票表现广泛扩大的缺失要素是降息。

The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts.

通常情况下，美联储在这种疲软的劳动力市场中会更大幅度地降息。

Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market.

但由于新冠疫情周期带来的失衡和扭曲，我们认为美联储在放松政策方面比正常情况滞后，这抑制了资金全面转向经济周期初期受益板块的进程。

But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners.

讽刺的是，政府停摆进一步削弱了经济，但也因劳动力数据发布暂停而推迟了美联储的行动。

Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but it's also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases.

如果数据延迟持续，或滞后的劳动力数据未能证实近期非政府相关就业数据的疲软，这将对我们的十二个月看涨预测构成短期风险。

This is a near term risk to our bullish twelve month forecast should delays in the data continue or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in nongovernment related jobs data.

在我们看来，这种劳动力市场疲软叠加政府希望‘全力推进’经济的意愿，意味着美联储最终推出的政策将比市场当前预期更为宽松。

In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with administration's desire to run it hot means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects.

这本质上只是时机问题，但这是股市近期走弱的短期风险所在。

It's really just a question of timing, but that is a near term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently.

简而言之，我们认为随着滚动式衰退和熊市在四月结束，新一轮牛市已经开启。

In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and bear market.

请记住，标普500指数在四月前下跌了20%，而标普500成分股的平均跌幅超过30%。

Remember, the S and P was down 20%, and the average S and P stock was down more than 30% into April.

这一观点仍被严重低估，我们认为随着经济复苏范围扩大，以及各领域需求回升和定价能力增强带来的经营杠杆回归，未来一年企业盈利将有显著上行空间。

This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there's significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy.

我们的预测反映了这种盈利上行空间，这也是尽管我们承认市场某些领域可能略显过热，但许多股票并不像表面看起来那么昂贵的另一个原因。

Our forecast reflect this upside to earnings, which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgment that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy.

对于标普500指数，我们的十二个月目标位现在为7800点，这假设明年盈利增长17%，且估值从当前水平仅小幅收缩。

For the S and P 500, our twelve month target is now 7,800, which assumes 17% earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels.

我们最看好的板块包括金融、工业和医疗保健。

Our favorite sectors include financials, industrials, and health care.

我们还首次自2021年以来将消费 discretionary 升级为超配，并更偏好商品而非服务。

We're also upgrading consumer discretionary to overweight and prefer goods over services for the first time since 2021.

我们另一个看好的相对交易是软件板块优于半导体板块，鉴于这对板块目前的极度相对表现落后以及仓位状况。

Another relative trade we like is software over semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point.

最后，自2021年3月以来，我们首次看好小盘股优于大盘股，因为盈利的早期周期广泛扩张与更宽松的美联储政策共同营造了我们一直耐心等待的环境。

Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021 as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for.

希望您能喜欢我们本周早些时候发布的详细报告，并在应对多层面变化的市场时从中获益。

We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels.

感谢您的收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

请留下评论，告诉我们您的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果您觉得关于市场的观点有价值，请告诉朋友或同事也来试试。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

上述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.