两千万桶石油的难题

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德鲁·希茨。

I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

我是摩根士丹利大宗商品研究主管马丁·拉茨。

I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天节目中，我们将探讨为什么全球投资者都在关注霍尔木兹海峡的船舶动向。

Today on the program, we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait Of Hormuz.

现在是3月11日星期三，伦敦时间下午2点。

It's Wednesday, March 11 at 2PM in London.

马丁，石油市场通常波动剧烈，但在过去几周，随着美国和伊朗之间军事冲突再度升级，市场波动尤为显著。

Martin, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between The United States and Iran.

这其中涉及许多不同角度，但石油市场确实是市场关注这场冲突的核心。

Now there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict.

因此，在深入具体细节之前，我认为先设定一些背景信息会很有帮助。

And so I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context.

全球石油市场有多大？波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡在全球格局中处于什么位置？

How big is the global oil market, and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait Of Hormuz fit within that global picture?

是的。

Yeah.

全球石油消费量略高于每天一亿桶，但可以分为两部分。

So the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100,000,000 barrels a day, But that splits in two parts.

一部分是管道运输市场，另一部分是海运市场。

There is a pipeline market, and there is a seaborne market.

就价格而言，海运市场才是关键所在。

And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at.

如果你在中国，从中东购买石油，突然间它无法供应了，确实如此。

If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from The Middle East, all of a sudden it's not available, Sure.

如果有一条管道从加拿大通往美国，这对你的帮助其实非常有限。

If there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.

真正重要的是船运的石油。

So it's the oil on ships that really matters.

船运石油是市场中灵活的部分，我们可以将其重新调配到需要石油的地方，而价格也正是在这个市场中形成的。

Oil on ships, that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed, and that is also the market where prices are formed.

海上石油市场每天约为六千万桶，仅占总产量一亿桶中的一部分。

And the seaborne market is in the order of 60,000,000 barrels a day, so only a subset of the 100.

相对于每天六千万桶的海上市场，霍尔木兹海峡的流量约为两千万桶。

Now relative to that 60,000,000 barrel a day, the Strait Of Hormuz flows about 20.

因此，霍尔木兹海峡承担了大约三分之一的海上石油供应量，这当然规模巨大，对整个系统至关重要。

So the Strait Of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.

我认为我们还应该讨论一个重要问题，这正是我们今天早些时候在另一次通话中刚刚提到的：这个市场对石油供应的轻微中断可能非常敏感。

And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil.

你能简单说明一下这种敏感性吗？

So can you give just some sense of sensitivity?

我的意思是，在正常情况下，多少桶石油的供应中断才会引发市场波动，引起投资者的关注？

I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions in terms of barrels of oil kind of move markets, get investors' attention?

是的。

Yeah.

你看，这正是这种情况如此特殊的原因，石油分析师们真的对此感到棘手。

Look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this.

你看，通常情况下，相对于每天1亿桶的消费量，我们关注的是每天几十万桶的供需失衡。

Look, normally, relative to the 100,000,000 barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day.

这就会变得有意思了。

That becomes interesting.

如果这个缺口增加到每天一百万桶的供过于求或供不应求，你就可以预期价格会出现变动。

If that increases to say a million, a million barrel a day over or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move.

你可以预期价格会大幅波动。

You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts.

我们可以撰写研究报告。

We can write research.

客户可以进行交易。

The clients can trade.

你面前就有一个可交易的观点。

You have a have a tradable idea in front of you.

当供需失衡达到每天两到三百万桶时，就会引发历史上重大的市场波动事件。

When that becomes two to 3,000,000 barrels a day either side, you have major historical market moving events.

所以在2008年和2009年，油价曾因石油市场连续两个季度每天过剩两百到二百五十万桶而从100多美元暴跌至约30美元。

So in 'eight, 'nine, oil famously fell from over 100 down to something like 30 on the basis that the oil market was two, two and a half million barrel a day oversupplied for two quarters.

在2022年，我们都以为这种情况不可能发生，但我们都认为俄罗斯的石油供应将减少约三百万桶/天。

In 2022, we all thought this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was gonna lose about 3,000,000 barrel a day of supply.

基于这一预期，仅凭预期本身，布伦特原油价格就涨到了每桶130美元。

And on that basis, just on the base of expectation alone, Brent went to a $130 a per per barrel.

所以，无论是正负两到三百万桶，都会引发历史上规模巨大的价格波动。

So two to three, either side, you have historically large moves.

而现在，我们讨论的是两千万桶。

Now we're talking about 20.

而且我认为这正是最令人震惊的地方。

And and I think that's what's so striking.

我的意思是，再强调一遍，投资者和听我们对话的人，他们也能算出这笔账。

I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too.

如果这是一个每天两到三百万桶的变动就曾引发我们历史上最大幅度波动的市场，那么200万桶的变动就非同寻常了。

If this is a a market where two to 3,000,000 barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 is exceptional.

而且我认为也可以说，这种霍尔木兹海峡的关闭是我们前所未见的。

And and I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait is something we haven't seen before.

不。

No.

这也使得预测变得非常困难，因为历史数据并没有指向这个方向。

Which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way, because the historical track records did not point in that direction.

然而我们却真的身处其中。

And yet here we are.

历史数据看起来是这样的。

The historical track record look.

你可以回顾历史上其他重大中断事件。

You can look at other major disruptions historically.

石油市场历史上最大的中断事件是20世纪50年代中期的苏伊士危机，当时切断了全球约10%的石油消费。

The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid nineteen fifties that took away about 10% of global oil consumption.

这轻松就是那两倍。

This is easily double that.

所以非常不寻常。

So really unusual.

如果你看看这种规模的供需冲击，可以想想新冠疫情。

If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID.

在2020年4月，新冠疫情最严重的一个月，我们都待在家里，没人开车，没人乘飞机，是的。

In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home, nobody driving, nobody flying, Yeah.

我们曾短暂损失了每天2000万桶的需求。

We lost very briefly 20,000,000 barrels a day of demand.

现在我们正在损失每天2000万桶的供应。

Now we're losing 20,000,000 barrels a day of supply.

所以你看。

So look.

符号反转了，但规模是相当的。

The the the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude.

而且，这些是不寻常的事件，你很难自然地预测到它们，但这就是我们目前面临的现实。

And, yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't naturally sort of forecast them that easily, and but that is what is in front of us at the moment.

所以我认为下一个合乎逻辑的问题是，如果航运持续受到干扰。

So I think the next kinda logical question is if shipping remains disrupted.

我很想请你谈谈，你正坐在屏幕前，用卫星地图追踪航运，这本身就是一个重大进展。

And I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you are you are sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is a development.

但你知道，这个地区乃至全球有哪些选项可以暂时平衡这种供应缺口，创造一些对冲？

But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally, to temporarily balance this supply and and and create some some offset?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，当出现像这样的重大中断时，市场自然会试图解决这个问题。

So, like, of course, when we have a big disruption like this one, of course, the market is gonna try to solve for this.

我们有几个可以着手的方面。

There are a few blocks that we can work with.

我会逐一为你介绍，包括一些具体数据。

I'll run you through through them one by one, including some of the numbers.

但很快你就得出结论，这个难题我们实际上无法解决。

But very quickly, you arrive at the conclusion that this is that this puzzle, we can't really solve it.

比如在2022年，市场压力非常大。

Like in 2022, the market was very stressed.

我们原本以为俄罗斯每天会损失300万桶的供应量，但我们在供需模型中还能进行调整。

We thought Russia was gonna lose 3,000,000 barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model.

俄罗斯的石油流向了中国和印度。

Russian oil goes to China and India.

他们购买的石油，我们可以在欧洲找到替代来源。

The oil that they buy, we can get in Europe.

我们可以通过调配来勉强解决这个难题。

We can move stuff around to kinda sort of solve a puzzle.

这个难题非常、非常难以解决。

This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve.

通过霍尔木兹海峡，每天有1500万桶原油、500万桶成品油，总计每天2000万桶。

So through the Strait Of Hormuz, 15,000,000 barrels a day of crude, 5,000,000 barrels a day of refined products, 20,000,000 barrels a day in total.

我们能做些什么？

What can we do?

最大的替代方案可以说是沙特的东-西管道。

Well, the biggest offset is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline.

沙特阿拉伯有一条管道，可以将石油运送到红海的亚布港，然后从那里用油轮运出。

Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port Of Yanbu where it can be evacuated on tankers there.

这条管道的运输能力为每天700万桶。

That pipeline has a capacity of 7,000,000 barrels a day.

我们认为它之前可能已经以每天约300万桶的流量运行，因此通过这条管道可能额外增加400万桶的运力。

We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3,000,000 barrels a day, so there's probably an incremental four that can become available through that.

这是我们能看到的最大的替代运力了。

That's the biggest block that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.

之后，其他替代方案的规模就小多了。

After that, the numbers do get smaller.

阿联酋有一条通往富查伊拉的管道。

The UAE has a pipeline that goes to Fujairah.

这也位于霍尔木兹海峡之外。

That's also beyond the Strait Of Hormuz.

我们认为那里的产能可能有每天五十万桶。

We think there's maybe half a million barrel a day of capacity there.

然后，在该地区内基本上就没什么余地了，你得在全球范围内寻找其他石油来源。

Then you're basically sort of done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.

如果俄罗斯石油的制裁得到解除，你可能在那里找到每天五十万桶的供应。

If there are sanctions relief maybe on Russian oil, you can find a half a million barrel a day there.

到处都是每天十万桶、二十万桶，但数字就变得混乱了。

Here, there, and everywhere, a 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day, but the numbers get crazy.

但即便你把所有这些都加起来，你知道，在最乐观的情况下，相对于被扰乱的两千万桶，还是不够吧？

Not it's still not so if you kinda put all of those bet you know, kinda almost in a in a best case scenario relative to the 20,000,000 that's getting disrupted?

如果你再增加一两百万桶，来自史上最大规模的战略石油储备释放，

If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release

有史以来最快的战略石油储备释放。

of SPR ever.

战略石油储备。

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

今天早些时候，我们收到公告，国际能源署提议其成员国从战略储备中释放4亿桶石油。

Earlier today, the we got an announcement that that the IEA is proposing to release 400,000,000 barrels from strategic reserve across its member countries.

这是一个非常庞大的数字，而且很重要，但更重要的是，这些石油能多快释放出来，因为从这些储罐中提取石油的速度是有限的。

That is a very large number, but and that is important, but more important is how fast can can can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite.

有史以来最快的战略石油储备释放速度仅为每天130万桶。

The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1,300,000 barrels a day.

也许当前情况非同寻常，我们可以做得更好，达到每天200万桶。

Now maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that, and we can get it to two.

但超过这个数字，我们就真正进入了前所未有的领域。

But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.

所以，也许在缓解制裁、释放战略储备的背景下，我们大概能从2000万桶的日缺口中找到700万桶的解决方案。

So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find, like, 7,000,000 barrels a day out of a problem that is 20.

你还剩下1300万桶。

You're left with another 13.

这1300万桶是当初我们预计俄罗斯损失量的四倍。

The 13 is four times what we thought Russia would lose.

因此你得出这样一个结论：这真的必须尽快结束。

So you're left with this conclusion, like, this really needs to come to an end.

另一个再平衡机制，当然，当我们回到市场和预测时，就是价格。

And and the the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting this, is obviously price.

你提到需求破坏这个概念，我认为我们可以将其简化为：价格更高了，所以人们使用得更少，从而通过这种方式实现市场再平衡。

And, you know, you talk about this this idea of demand destruction, which which I think we could paraphrase as the price is higher, so people use less of it, and then you can rebalance the market that way.

但请你简单谈谈，当你和你的团队在建模时，你们如何看待油价需要涨到什么水平，才能以另一种方式实现再平衡？

But, you know, give give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about kind of the price of oil, where it would need to go to to potentially rebalance this the other way?

是的。

Yeah.

这个价格非常高。

That price is very high.

所以一个非常有趣的分析是查看经通胀调整后的原油价格的历史频率分布。

So what is a really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.

你取二十年的原油价格，全部换算成当年的货币并根据通胀调整，然后简单地绘制出频率分布图。

You take twenty years of oil prices, you convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then and then simply plot the frequency distribution.

你得到的并不是一个以中间值为中心、围绕中点略有波动的单一钟形曲线。

What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around around the midpoint.

你得到的是两个部分重叠的钟形曲线。

You get sort of two partially overlapping bell curves.

其中有一个稍大一些的，属于正常状态，价格较低，约为60、70或80美元。

There is a slightly larger one, which is sort of the normal regime, lower prices, $60.70, $80.

在频率分布中，这一区域的密度非常高。

There's a lot of there's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution.

我们通常就处于这个区间。

That's where we are normally.

有趣的是，如果你从那里往更高的价格看，实际上有些价格是非常罕见的。

What's interesting is that actually if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare.

以实际通胀调整后的价格来看，比如一百、一百一十美元。

In inflation adjusted terms, like hundred, hundred and ten.

以名义价格来看，我们可能会觉得这种情况已经发生过。

In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened.

但以实际通胀调整后的价格来看，这些价格极其罕见。

In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare.

它们比那些更靠右的价格——比如一百三十、一百四十美元——还要罕见得多。

They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right, hundred and thirty, hundred and forty.

石油市场存在另一种高价格的 regime（状态）。

The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices.

如果回溯历史，这些高价是什么时候出现的？

If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail?

它们总是在我们提出同样问题的时期出现。

They always prevailed in periods where we ask the same question.

需求破坏的价格是多少？

What is the demand destruction price?

是的。

Yeah.

而且，没错，要显著地削弱需求，你就会进入这种非常高的价格区间，比如每桶130美元。

And and, yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in the in that regime, these very high prices, like hundred and thirty.

而且这并不是一个渐进的过程。

And and it's I it it does it's not a gradual scale.

在某个时刻，你会突然突破这些水平，然后就落在那里了。

You sort of, at one point, shoot through these levels, and that's where you then end up.

这可是相当严重的事情。

It's quite quite serious stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

另外，因为我们经常随意地说，在石油市场，需求萎缩一定是答案。

Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.

但我们并不是孤立地削减需求。

But we don't erode demand in isolation.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

比如，柴油对应的是卡车运输。

Like, you know, diesel is trucking.

是的。

Yeah.

航空燃油对应的是航空飞行。

Jet is flying.

北美自由贸易协定对应的是石油化工。

NAFTA is petrochemicals.

这些都是经济活动的核心组成部分。

These are real core parts of economic activity.

这全部都计入GDP。

It's all GDP.

所以，也许，马丁，作为总结，让我给你一个稍微不同的场景。

So maybe, Martin, in conclusion, let me give you a a slightly different scenario.

假设这场冲突再持续几周，但之后得到了解决，交通恢复正常。

Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution, traffic goes back to normal.

请为我们详细解释一下这会意味着什么。

Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean.

你知道，在这样一个市场中，恢复正常需要多长时间？

Know, kinda how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?

是的。

Yeah.

如果你说的是几周，我认为那实际上是一段令人不安的时间。

So if you say weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time, actually.

请随意使用一个稍微不同的场景。

Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.

如果你说的是几天。

If you say days.

几天。

Days.

假设下周发生点什么，整个事情就结束了。

Let's say next week, something happens, the whole thing comes to an end.

听着，那时我们会遇到物流和供应链问题。

Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues.

但听着，这些问题我们是可以解决的。

But look, we can work through that.

目前全球石油供应链中出现了一点空档。

There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain.

原本应该有油轮在前往炼油厂的途中，预计四月和五月到达，但现在却没有。

There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not.

所以我们会遇到一些波折，需要重新安排路线，或在某些地方动用库存。

So we'll we'll have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and withdrawn some inventories here or there.

但这会使得大宗商品价格保持紧张。

But and and that will keep commodity prices tense.

我预计股市可能会忽略这一点。

I would imagine the equity market will probably look through it.

我想，我们需要一到六周的时间来解决这些物流问题，最多不会超过两个月。

We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine, of of logistical issues to sort out.

你看。

Look.

当然，如果这种情况没有发生，那我们就又回到了之前讨论的情景。

Of course, you know, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed.

但是，是的，你看，这一点也同样成立。

But, yeah, look, that that's equally true.

如果时间短，我们还能忍受这种干扰。

If it's if it's short, we can sort of live with the disruption.

但可以说，这是一个日子非常关键的情况，几周的差异会产生巨大影响。

But it's fair to say that this is a a situation where where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.

完全没错。

Oh, totally.

听好了。

Look.

石油行业已经内置了一些补偿措施，我认为是供应链上的库存，但没有任何规模能应对这种情况。

The oil industry has built in various sort of compensatory measures, I think, you know, inventories along the supply chains, but but nothing of the scale that can work with this.

我的意思是，这确实是另一个数量级的问题。

I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.

马丁，感谢你抽出时间交谈。

Martin, thank you for taking the time to talk.

不客气。

My pleasure.

也一如既往地感谢你的时间。

And thank you as always for your time.

如果你觉得我们对市场的分析有帮助，请在你收听的平台留下评价。

If you find thoughts on the market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen.

今天也请向朋友或同事推荐我们。

Also, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

前述内容仅为信息性说明，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.