投资者可能忽视的市场转变

欢迎收听《市场洞察》。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利的首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天在这期播客里，我会聊聊股票市场领涨板块的变化。

Today in the podcast, I'll be discussing the changing equity market leadership.

现在是纽约时间6月30日，星期二上午11点30分，咱们直接开始吧。

It's Tuesday, June 30 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

有些事情正明明白白地发生着，但投资者还没完全意识到。

Something is happening in plain sight but still isn't fully appreciated by investors.

市场的领涨力量正在转变，而和以往一样，等大家都达成共识的时候，最容易赚的钱大概已经被人拿走了。

The market's leadership is changing, and as usual, by the time everyone agrees that it's happening, the easier money will probably have already been made.

今年年初，我们和市场主流看法的主要区别在于，我们认为经济和企业盈利前景比普遍预期要强得多。

Coming into this year, the primary differentiation to our view was that the economic and earnings outlook were much stronger than the consensus believed.

这个观点建立在几个简单却有力的判断之上。

That view was built around a few simple but powerful ideas.

经历了三年的经济衰退后，基数效应明显，企业成本结构精简，被压抑的需求集中释放，再加上资本支出激励、减税、银行业放松监管，以及越来越有利的流动性货币政策环境。

Easy comparisons after a three year rolling recession, lean cost structures, pent up demand, fiscal support from capex incentives and tax cuts, deregulation for the banks, and a monetary backdrop that was increasingly supportive to the liquidity channel.

把这些因素放在一起，当时的形势简直就是典型的经济周期初期景象。

Putting those together, the setup looked like a classic early cycle.

在成本结构精简的基础上，收入开始回升，带来了强劲的经营杠杆效应，盈利增速远超长期趋势。

Revenue growth returning on top of lean cost structures leads to strong operating leverage and well above trend earnings growth.

再看现在，这一切果然都发生了。

Fast forward to today, and that's exactly what's happened.

标普1500指数中位数公司的盈利增速已经迈入两位数，是自疫情后复苏以来最快的。

The median stock in the S and P fifteen hundred is now growing earnings at a double digit pace, the fastest since the post COVID boom.

收入增长也回来了，中位数公司的营收同比提升了7%。

Revenue growth has returned with the median stock growing its top line by 7%.

这种逐步复苏的趋势正在显现，但很多投资者还没注意到。

That's a rolling recovery showing up where many investors still aren't looking.

今年大部分时间，尤其是最近几个月，大多数投资者都不想听这个说法。

For much of this year and particularly the past few months, most investors didn't want to hear that story.

伊朗冲突导致油价大幅上涨。

The Iran conflict pushed oil sharply higher.

市场对降息的预期转成了对加息的预期。

Rate cut expectations turned into hike expectations.

面对这些逆风，投资者纷纷回流到人工智能领域，尤其是半导体和内存板块。

Faced with these headwinds, investors crowded back into the AI trade, especially semiconductors and memory in particular.

需要说明的是，半导体板块的盈利预期上调幅度非常惊人。

To be clear, earnings revisions in semiconductors have been spectacular.

这波行情本身并不 irrational，但当某个领域成为市场上最受追捧、最热门、最显而易见的选择时，再想超预期就难了。

The move wasn't irrational, but when something becomes the most owned, most loved, and most obvious area of the market, it becomes harder to surprise on the upside.

我觉得我们现在就处在这个位置。

That's where I think we are now.

超大规模云服务商已经开始跑输大盘，这可能是半导体板块的早期预警信号，毕竟它们才是AI支出热潮的最大受益者。

The hyperscalers have started to underperform, and that may be an early warning sign for semis, which are the key beneficiaries of the AI spending boom.

半导体板块的盈利预期上调范围已经逼近历史高位。

Earnings revision breadth for semis is pressing against historical extremes.

再说一遍，这并不意味着AI周期结束了，但很可能意味着它的增速已经见顶。

Again, this does not mean the AI cycle is over, but it does mean that the rate of change may be peaking.

当一个热门板块的价格动能开始减弱时，往往会带来不小的回调。

And when price momentum starts to fade in a crowded trade, it can lead to significant setbacks.

这反而给市场其他板块腾出了喘息的空间。

It can also give other parts of the market room to breathe.

简而言之，市场轮动又回来了。

In short, a broadening trade is back.

等权重指数和小盘股再次跑赢大盘。

The equal weighted index and small caps are outperforming again.

更重要的是，我们一直推荐的可选消费、交通运输和区域性银行板块，过去六周已经展现出相对强势，尽管市场仓位和情绪仍偏向中性或负面。

More importantly, the groups we have been recommending, Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Regional Banks, have already started to show relative strength over the past six weeks even though positioning and sentiment remains neutral to negative.

我喜欢这种组合：价格走势更好、盈利预期改善，但投资者还持怀疑态度。

That's the kind of combination I like, Better price action, improving earnings, and investors still skeptical.

我比其他人更看好消费板块，一个原因是我在油价上看得更悲观。

One reason I've been more constructive on the consumer than others is that I've also been more bearish on oil.

这种看法并不依赖于美国和伊朗达成重大协议，尽管那当然有帮助。

That view is not dependent on a grand deal between The US and Iran, although that obviously helps.

迹象早就出现了。

The signals were already there.

布伦特原油和WTI原油的价差收窄，从冲突一爆发，能源股就开始跑输大盘。

The Brent to WTI spread narrowed, and energy stocks began underperforming from the day the conflict started.

市场其实早就给我们传递了信号，只是新闻还没跟上。

The market was telling us something before the headlines confirmed it.

从长远来看，这场冲突已经给全世界敲响了警钟。

And longer term, I think the conflict has put the world on notice.

霍尔木兹海峡这个关键节点，必须找到解决办法。

This choke point around the Strait Of Hormuz must be solved.

世界已经不再愿意接受这种风险了。

It's no longer a risk that the world is willing to tolerate.

新的运输路线、新的供应来源，以及新的能源策略，很可能即将到来。

New routes, new supply, and new energy strategies are likely coming.

需求是发明之母，我对世界适应能力的判断从不低估。

Necessity is the mother of invention, and I would not underestimate the world's ability to adapt.

油价压力缓解，对贸易的广泛复苏也有帮助。

A less problematic oil backdrop helps the broadening trade too.

美联储在利率方面，至少目前也是支持的。

So does the Fed, at least on rates.

六月的FOMC会议传递了两个关键信息。

The June FOMC meeting told us two things.

前瞻指引会减弱，政策反应现在更聚焦于通胀本身。

Forward guidance is going to be diminished, and the reaction function is now focused more squarely on inflation.

在我看来，能源价格下跌、关税引发的通胀见顶，加上服务和住房通胀可控，会让美联储今年维持利率不变，而不是加息。

My view is that falling energy prices, peaking tariff related inflation, and contained services and housing inflation keep the Fed on hold rather than hiking this year.

如果真是这样，低于预期的实际利率可能会成为股市的意外利好，也为市场表现的广泛扩散再添一把火。

If that's right, lower than expected real rates could be a positive surprise for equities and another tailwind for the broadening of performance.

眼下最值得关注的关键变量，是流动性。

The key variable to watch at this point is liquidity.

这一届美联储不太可能再像以前那样积极提供资产负债表支持。

This Fed is unlikely to be as proactive with balance sheet support.

实体经济需要更多资本用于资本支出，而市场正面临更多的股权和信贷供给，这才是近期真正的风险，尤其是对那些热门的动量交易而言。

Just as the real economy needs more capital for capex and the markets are dealing with more equity and credit supply, That's the near term real risk, especially for popular momentum trades.

总的来说，下个月市场指数可能会显得波动甚至疲软，但底层信号其实正在好转。

Bottom line, the market may look choppy and even weak at the index level over the next month, but the message underneath is improving.

企业盈利正在广泛改善。

Earnings are broadening.

油价正在下跌。

Oil is falling.

转变已经在进行中，拥挤的动量交易开始动摇，而之前被忽视的板块正开始领涨。

The shift is already underway with crowded momentum trades wobbling, and the under owned areas of the market starting to lead.

投资者可以选择等趋势更明确后再行动，也可以提前布局，在它变得显而易见、价格完全反映之前就入场。

Investors can either wait for it to become more certain or position before it becomes obvious and fully priced.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望你觉得这些内容有收获、有帮助。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎留下你的评价，告诉我们你的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果你觉得关于市场的分析值得参考，不妨推荐给朋友或同事试试。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

以上内容仅供参考，基于发布时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这不构成任何投资要约或劝诱，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

内容未考虑您的个人财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.