美国债务上升背后的政治博弈

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是摩根士丹利美国公共政策研究主管阿里安娜·萨尔瓦托雷。

I'm Ariana Salvatore, head of US public policy research at Morgan Stanley.

今天我们来聊聊为什么财政政策重新成为焦点，以及从即将到来的中期选举中，我们能对更广泛的债务轨迹有何了解。

Today, why fiscal is back in focus, and what we can learn about the broader debt trajectory from the upcoming midterm elections.

现在是纽约时间8月28日星期五上午10点。

It's Friday, August 28 at 10AM in New York.

在财政部最近宣布回购计划之后，财政政策重新回到了投资者的视野中。

Fiscal policy has moved back onto investors' radars following Treasury's recent buyback announcements.

这些公告发布的那一周，美国总债务首次突破40万亿美元，这一里程碑比大多数人预期的提前了好几个月。

Those came in the same week that total US debt crossed $40,000,000,000,000 for the first time, a milestone that arrived months earlier than most people expected.

正如我的同事安德鲁·希茨所说，这是一个很大的数字，但更有意义的问题不在于数字本身。

As my colleague Andrew Sheets puts it, that's a big number, but the more useful question isn't the number itself.

而在于所有这些债务是否开始对经济构成拖累。

It's whether all this debt is starting to act as a break on the economy.

我们目前还没看到国债市场出现信任危机，但正因为如此，财政问题才重新成为讨论的焦点。

We don't quite yet see a credibility problem in the Treasury market, but that's exactly why fiscal is back in the conversation.

而这背后还有一个更大的背景。

And it sits against a bigger backdrop.

美国在经济并未衰退的情况下，持续出现巨额赤字。

The US continues to run large deficits in an economy that isn't in a recession.

我们的经济学家预计，到2027年，赤字将保持在GDP的6%左右，而选民们显然对高企的债务水平感到担忧。

Our economists expect the deficit to stay around 6% of GDP through 2027, and voters are clearly concerned about elevated debt levels.

那为什么华盛顿没有更多地讨论财政紧缩呢？

So why isn't fiscal austerity coming up more in DC?

简单来说，我们认为政治激励的方向恰恰相反。

Simply put, we think the political incentives point the other direction.

说得简单点，财政整顿或削减赤字，要么意味着减少支出，要么意味着增加税收。

At the risk of oversimplifying, fiscal consolidation or deficit reduction means either less spending or more taxes.

而这些选择的政治代价是立竿见影的。

And the political costs of those choices land immediately.

所以我们认为，如果没有明显的危机或对现有项目的风险，两党都没有动力去推动这种政策变革，尤其是在选举临近的时候。

We think neither party therefore has the incentive to take on that type of policy change if we don't see a meaningful cliff or a risk to existing programs, especially into an election.

但选举之后呢？

But what about after?

我们认为中期选举本身不会成为解决债务轨迹问题的催化剂，但它们可以为我们提供一些关于未来走向的线索。

We think the midterms won't in and of themselves be a catalyst to fix the debt trajectory, but they can tell us something about where this goes next.

我特别想指出两点。

And I point to two things in particular.

第一点是社会保障。

The first is Social Security.

它不太可能成为十一月选举的头条议题，但我们可能会看到一个有用的测试案例，因为截止日期越来越近，这可能会引发更广泛的债务讨论。

It's not likely to be the headline issue in November, but we could see a useful test case for the debt conversation more broadly because the deadline is creeping closer.

最新的受托人报告预测，退休信托基金将在2032年第四季度破产。

The latest trustees report projects the retirement trust fund will become insolvent in the fourth quarter of twenty thirty two.

到那时，如果没有法律变更，它只能支付约78%的计划福利。

And at that point, it could only cover roughly 78% of scheduled benefits without a change in law.

这可能在2028年比在这个周期更重要，因为那一年谁赢得白宫，谁就会在问题爆发时执政。

Now that's likely to matter more in 2028 than in this cycle since whoever wins the White House that year will be in office when it hits.

但中期选举仍然可以让我们看到政治立场正在如何整合。

But the midterms can still show us where the politics are consolidating.

最近的民调显示出一个相当一致的模式。

Recent polling points to a fairly consistent pattern.

选民希望立法者采取行动。

Voters want lawmakers to act.

他们更倾向于对高收入者增税，而不是大幅削减福利，而且当削减针对收入分配顶端时，他们明显更愿意接受。

They prefer raising taxes on high earners over broader benefit cuts, and they're notably more open to trimming benefits when it's targeted at the top of the income distribution.

这或许解释了为什么许多2026年的候选人都在提高工资税上限上达成共识，而一些共和党人则在很大程度上不再以提高退休年龄等议题作为竞选主张。

That likely explains why a number of twenty twenty six candidates have converged on lifting the payroll tax cap, while some Republicans have largely retreated from campaigning on things like a higher retirement age.

观察哪些信息最终能赢得支持，尤其是在新罕布什尔州或缅因州这样的参议院选举中，那里有相当一部分选民依赖这些福利，这可能会提供一些有用的线索，帮助我们了解哪些政策变化真正引起选民共鸣，并最终成为解决方案的一部分。

Watching which of those messages actually wins, especially in Senate races like New Hampshire or Maine, where a significant share of the electorate depends on these benefits, could provide some useful hints with respect to which of these policy changes actually resonate with voters and end up reflecting the eventual fix.

第二点是选举后更广泛的财政前景。

The second is the broader fiscal landscape after the election.

如果十一月出现政府分裂，那通常意味着围绕政府资金和债务上限等周期性截止日期的财政噪音会更多。

If we get a divided government in November, that typically means more fiscal noise around the recurring deadlines, like government funding and the debt ceiling.

这两件事对市场的影响方式非常不同。

Those two matter for markets in very different ways.

政府停摆的影响往往更大的是间接的。

A shutdown's bigger effect tends to be indirect.

比如，政府数据可能会延迟发布或质量下降，因为机构可能只能基于较小的调查样本工作。

So think delayed or lower quality government data since agencies can end up working from smaller survey samples.

这会让投资者和美联储在连续数周内，有时甚至更长时间，基于不完整的信息做决策。

That leaves investors in the Fed making decisions with less complete information for weeks at a stretch sometimes.

债务上限的影响更直接，这在国库券市场上表现得最明显。

The debt ceiling is more direct, and that shows up most clearly in the Treasury bill market.

在潜在截止日期前后到期的国库券，相对于其他短期基准往往会贬值，因为投资者必须在那个狭窄的时间窗口内计入违约风险。

Bills maturing around a potential deadline tend to cheapen relative to other short term benchmarks as investors have to price default risk into that narrow window.

即使最终解决仍是基本预期，情况也是如此。

And that's the case even when a resolution is still the base case.

所以这里有一条主线。

So here's a through line.

财政问题不太可能仅仅因为债务突破40万亿美元就成为华盛顿的首要议题。

Fiscal likely isn't about to become Washington's top priority just because debt crossed $40,000,000,000,000.

但中期选举是一个机会，可以看看政治激励是否开始在社会安全问题上，以及更广泛地在围绕资金截止日期的政治斗争意愿上发生转变。

But the midterms are a chance to see whether the political incentives are starting to shift on Social Security specifically and on the broader appetite for political fights around funding deadlines more generally.

无论如何，我们认为财政政策在未来几年都会持续成为头条新闻，尤其是在我们进入2028年总统大选季的时候。

Either way, we think fiscal policy is set to stay in the headlines in the years to come, and especially so as we head into the twenty twenty eight presidential election season.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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这不是要约或招揽，也不是税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

它没有考虑你的财务状况和目标，可能不适合你。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.