牛市恢复的原因

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief US equity strategist.

在今天的播客中，我将讨论伊朗冲突及其对股票市场的影响。

Today in the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.

今天是3月9日，星期一，纽约时间上午11:30，我们开始吧。

It's Monday, March 9 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

尽管大多数人认为当前的股市回调始于二月，但对我来说，它实际上早在去年秋天流动性开始收紧时就已经开始了。

While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten.

事实上，早在九月，我就警告过，美联储在资产负债表上的行动还不够，金融条件很可能收紧，并给股市带来压力。

In fact, back in September, I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities.

从十月开始，这种压力表现为股市和加密货币中最具投机性部分的急剧回调。

Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and cryptocurrencies.

美联储随后提前结束了资产负债表缩减，并重启了资产购买，这导致了今年一月股市的强劲反弹。

The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases, which led to a strong equity market performance in January.

此时，无论是时间还是跌幅，这一修正都已经非常深入，许多股票下跌了30%以上。

At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price with many stocks down 30% or more.

与此同时，个股间的分化极少如此剧烈，赢家与输家之间的差距达到了二十多年来最高水平。

Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we've seen in twenty plus years.

和往常一样，市场提前预判了如今人人都显而易见的诸多担忧。

As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all.

如今，股票投资者面临的问题是：六个月后世界会是什么样子？当前价格是否已经低到足以开始预期一个更好的未来？

The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months, and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future?

简短的回答是：还没到，但请先列好你的购物清单。

The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping list ready.

在很多方面，我们如今的处境与去年非常相似。

In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year.

回想一下，主要指数在二月下旬至三月初开始加速下行。

Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in late February and early March.

当时的主要担忧集中在关税上，但和今天一样，股市早已因与关税无关的忧虑而持续表现不佳数月。

The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs.

这一次，市场在伊朗冲突升级之前，早已对人工智能带来的劳动力冲击、私人信贷违约和流动性短缺感到担忧。

This time around, markets have been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults, and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated.

通常情况下，市场调整直到最佳股票和最高质量的指数也受到冲击时才会结束，而这通常需要像‘解放日’或战争这样的更大冲击。

Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a bigger shock like Liberation Day or war.

这一过程已经开始，标普500指数经历了自10月以来最糟糕的一周。

That process has begun with the S and P 500 having its worst week since October.

另一个需要考虑的因素是，市场水平往往与一年前的水平密切相关。

The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago.

在思考支撑位时，这种同比比较非常重要。

This year over year comparison is very important when thinking about support.

鉴于去年的急剧下跌，这表明我们可能还会再经历一个月，期间股市很可能继续承压。

Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle.

基于这一简单观察以及其他技术指标，我认为在我们有利的基本面预期重新发挥作用之前，标普500可能在四月初跌至6300点。

Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S and P 500 could trade as low as 6,300 by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again.

这是否意味着我们不必担心伊朗冲突会使油价持续高于每桶100美元？

Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above a $100?

不。

No.

但由于没人能预测军事冲突或油价的走向，我也不打算去预测。

But since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I'm not gonna try either.

相反，我会假设六个月后，经过最初的冲击，局势很可能已经稳定下来，就像俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后我们所看到的一样。

Instead, I'm going to assume that in six months, things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.

重要的是，油价的飙升是由于霍尔木兹海峡的物流堵塞，而非供应短缺。

Importantly, the spike in oil prices is a result of a logistical logjam in the Straits Of Hormuz rather than a shortage of supply.

这种堵塞确实是一个现实的制约因素，但需求是创新之母，预计最终会得到解决。

That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be resolved.

另一个让我们对六个月后持乐观态度的原因是，盈利增长的范围正在扩大，这一趋势依然持续，也是我们2026年展望的关键观点。

Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call in our 2026 outlook.

其次，由于能源独立，美国对油价冲击的抵御能力远强于亚洲和欧洲。

Secondarily, The US is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence.

这将吸引投资者资金重新流入美国。

This should attract investor flows back to The US.

最后，大型宏伟法案中的资本支出税收优惠和个人减税将在短期内对较高的油价起到积极的抵消作用。

And finally, tax incentives for capital spending and tax cuts for individuals individuals in the Big Beautiful Bill should provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term.

另一方面，避险情绪可能导致美元走强，这对全球流动性构成阻力。

On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more US dollar strength, which is a headwind to global liquidity.

总之，在冲突缓和之前，油价和美元走强可能会持续下去。

Bottom line, oil and US dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down.

尽管股市中最脆弱的部分可能已经遭受了大部分损失，但在我看来，该指数仍面临未来五到七个百分点的下行风险，而拥挤的股票在下个月触底前可能下跌超过两位数。

While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market, the index remains vulnerable to another five to 7% downside in my opinion, while crowded stocks could see double digit declines before final low appears next month.

请记住，市场低点往往比高点来得更快，因此请做好准备，在今年晚些时候牛市重启前逐步增加风险敞口。

Remember, market lows happen faster than tops, so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望您觉得这次分享有信息量且有用。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎通过留下评论告诉我们您的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果你觉得市场上的这些观点有价值，不妨告诉朋友或同事也来试试。

And if you find thoughts in the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

上述内容仅作信息参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.