另一场政府停摆的利害关系

欢迎来到市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是摩根士丹利全球研究副主管迈克尔·泽西斯。

I'm Michael Zesis, deputy head of global research for Morgan Stanley.

今天，我们将讨论本周末美国政府可能停摆的可能性，以及投资者应该和不应该担心的问题。

Today, we'll discuss the possibility of a US government shutdown later this week and what investors should and should not be worried about.

现在是纽约时间1月28日星期三上午10:30。

It's Wednesday, January 28 at 10:30AM in New York.

在最近几周，投资者不得不考虑各种影响市场的政策催化剂，包括委内瑞拉军事行动对新兴市场石油供应的影响、伊朗潜在的军事行动，以及因格陵兰问题导致的美欧关系破裂风险。

In recent weeks, investors have had to consider all manner of policy catalysts for the markets, including the impact to oil supply in emerging markets from military action in Venezuela, potential military action in Iran, and risks of fracturing of The US Europe relationship over Greenland.

相比之下，美国政府可能停摆似乎显得相当温和。

By comparison, a potential US government shutdown may seem rather quaint.

但优秀的投资者会积极管理所有风险，让我们来逐一分析。

But a good investor aggressively manages all risks, so let's break this down.

在参议院的拨款谈判中，民主党正推动对移民执法实施更严格的规则和更多监督，以应对近期事件。

Amidst funding negotiations in the senate, Democrats are pressing for tighter rules and more oversight on how immigration enforcement is carried out given recent events.

共和党人表示愿意进行谈判，但时间表确实是个限制因素。

Republicans have signaled some openness to negotiations, but the calendar is really a constraint.

由于众议院直到下周初才复会，本周参议院的任何改动都可能导致资金断供。

With the house out of session until early next week, any senate changes this week could lead to a lapse in funding.

因此，本周末出现短暂停摆，随后众议院恢复后通过一项短期持续决议，是非常可能的路径。

So a brief shutdown this weekend followed by a short continuing resolution once the house returns is a very plausible path.

这并不是因为任何一方想要停摆，而是因为他们尚未就策略达成一致，而时间又很紧迫。

Not because either side wants a shutdown, but because they haven't fully coalesced around the strategy and time is short.

当然，一旦停摆发生，就存在其持续延长的风险。

Of course, once a shutdown happens, there's a risk it could drag on.

但总体而言，我们的基本预期是，经济影响将是可控的。

But in general, our base case is that the economic impact would be manageable.

历史上，停摆会给受影响的员工和承包商带来显著困难，但总体宏观影响通常较小且可逆。

Historically, shutdowns create meaningful hardship for affected workers and contractors, but the aggregate macro effects tend to be modest and reversible.

大部分支出最终都会得到补足，一旦资金恢复，对增长的干扰通常会迅速消退。

Most spending is eventually made up and disruptions to growth typically unwind quickly once funding is restored.

一个有用的经验法则是，一次全面停摆每持续一周，就会使年度化的季度GDP下降约十分之一个百分点。

A useful rule of thumb is that a full shutdown trims roughly one tenth of a percentage point from the annualized quarterly GDP for each week it lasts.

由于多项拨款法案已经通过，我们现在面临的将是一次部分停摆，这意味着影响数字会更小。

With several appropriations bills already passed, what we'd face now is a partial shutdown, meaning that figure would be even smaller.

对于市场而言，这意味着反应也应当是温和的。

For markets, that means the reaction should also be modest.

停摆通常不会改变收益、通胀或美联储的基本路径，而这些仍然是资产表现的主要驱动因素。

Shutdowns tend not to reprice the fundamental path of earnings, inflation, or the Fed, which are still dominant drivers of asset performance.

因此，市场很可能倾向于忽略这些噪音，转而关注前方更重要的催化剂。

So the market's inclination will likely be to look past the noise and focus on more substantive catalysts ahead.

最后，值得剖析一下这里的政治因素，因为它们确实相关，但并非投资者可能以为的那样。

Finally, it's worth unpacking the politics here because they're relevant, but not in the way investors might think.

停摆风险源于一些导致总统和共和党支持率下滑的行为，这促使许多投资者询问我们，这对中期选举和由此产生的公共政策选择意味着什么。

The shutdown risk is emerging from actions that have contributed to sagging approval ratings for the president and Republicans, leading many investors to ask us what this means for midterm elections and resulting public policy choices.

综合来看，这些动态可以被视为共和党可能面临艰难中期选举环境的早期信号。

And taken together, one could read these dynamics as an early sign that Republicans may face a difficult midterm environment.

我们认为现在下任何确定的结论都为时过早，但即使我们能下结论，也不确定这是否重要。

We think it's too early to draw any confident conclusions about this, but even if we could, we're not sure it matters.

首先，许多与市场最相关的政策，如贸易、监管、产业战略、回流以及日益增长的人工智能领域，都是通过行政权力而非国会行动来执行的。

First, many of the most market relevant policies on trade, regulation, industrial strategy, reshoring, and increasingly AI are being executed through executive authority, not congressional action.

这意味着它们的走向不太可能受到近期政治动荡的影响。

That means their trajectory is unlikely to be altered by near term political turbulence.

其次，总统几乎肯定会否决任何试图撤销去年税改法案的举动，该法案制定了一系列旨在推动企业资本支出的激励措施，而资本支出是2026年前景的关键驱动因素。

Second, the president would almost certainly veto any effort to roll back last year's tax bill, which created a suite of incentives aimed at corporate CapEx, a key driver of the 2026 outlook.

综合来看，结论如下。

Putting it all together, the bottom line is this.

由日程紧凑引发的短期停摆是值得关注的风险，但不值得过度反应。

A short calendar driven shutdown is a risk worth monitoring, but not one to overreact to.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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We want everyone to listen.

上述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

它不构成任何要约或招揽，也不是税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.