9月哪些因素可能颠覆市场？

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

我是安德鲁·希茨，摩根士丹利固定收益研究全球主管。

I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天我们来聊聊本月晚些时候可能引发更多波动的因素。

Today, catalysts for more volatility later this month.

今天是9月4日，星期五，伦敦时间下午2点。

It's Friday, September 4 at 2PM in London.

在超过一个世纪的股市历史中，9月份的波动性往往高于平均水平。

Over more than a century of market history, Septembers have tended to see more volatility than the average month.

虽然不能精确到分秒，但这个趋势确实存在。

You can't exactly set your watch by it, but the trend is definitely there.

随着投资者从夏季归来，资本市场活动重新活跃起来，历史上这时市场往往会出现波动。

As investors come back from summer and capital market activity restarts in earnest, things historically tend to move.

这个观点在今年尤其适用。

This idea seems especially relevant this year.

尽管新闻头条不少，但今年夏天市场其实相当平静。

Despite the headlines, it was a pretty calm summer for markets.

自六月初以来，美国股市、收益率和信贷都温和上涨，而且波动很小。

Since early June, US stocks, yields, credit were all modestly higher, and they got there with minimal movement.

实际波动率，也就是这些市场每天的波动幅度，一直处于历史低位。

The realized volatility, that is how much these markets are moving on a daily basis, has been historically low.

九月有很多因素可能打破这种平静。

September offers a number of catalysts that could test that.

首先最重要的是美联储。

First and foremost is the Fed.

通胀仍高于央行目标，市场预计9月16日会议加息的可能性约为三分之二。

Inflation remains above the Central Bank's target, and markets are pricing a roughly two out of three chance of a rate hike on the September 16 meeting.

在会议临近之际，这种不确定性是近期少见的，其影响远不止一次决策。

That's more uncertainty this close to a meeting than we've had in a while, and the impact goes far beyond a single decision.

日本央行和欧洲央行的现场会议也将在九月举行。

Live meetings from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank also loom in September.

九月也是历史上资本市场活动异常活跃的一个月。

September is also a month that historically sees unusually heavy capital market activity.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

如果你是一家公司，想筹集资金，通常最好等到投资者从夏天回来后再去寻求资金。

If you're a corporate and looking to raise money, it's often better to wait until investors are back from the summer before going out looking for those funds.

但今年九月可能会异常活跃，因为IPO管道不断增长，而且与人工智能相关的建设持续需要资金。

But this September could be unusually active, given a growing IPO pipeline and continued funding needs from AI related construction.

所以，即使考虑到九月通常繁忙的节奏，这个月资本市场活动的可能结果范围也异常广泛。

And so it's fair to say that even adjusting for September's usually heavy pace, there's an unusually wide range of outcomes around where capital market activity could land this month.

投资者在夏天回来后，全球能源市场仍然笼罩着重大不确定性。

Investors are also coming back from the summer with major uncertainty still hanging over global energy markets.

摩根士丹利的大宗商品团队仍然认为全球能源流动受到严重限制，最近还上调了油价预测，预计今年第四季度油价将达到每桶约100美元。

Morgan Stanley's commodity team still sees global energy flows as severely restricted, and recently raised their forecast for oil prices, seeing them reach about $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.

桶里东西的价格变得更加极端，自1月1日以来，欧洲柴油价格已经上涨了140%。

The price of what's in that barrel is becoming even more extreme, with the price of diesel fuel in Europe up 140% since January 1.

因此，随着库存持续下降，以及围绕冲突持续时间的疑问依然存在，这两个因素都可能推动市场进一步波动。

And so as inventories continue to draw down, and questions around the duration of this conflict persist, both factors could drive more market movements.

好消息是，虽然历史上九月波动较大，但九月并不一定是风向标，这次可能也是如此。

The good news is that while Septembers have historically been more volatile months, they're not necessarily a bellwether, And that could apply again.

到月底，我们应该能更清楚地了解美联储的路径、资本市场的活跃程度以及能源供应状况。

By month end, we should have a much better idea of the Fed's path, the scale of capital market activity, and the state of energy supply.

但在那之前，许多市场（尤其是利率和外汇市场）的预期波动率仍然异常低。

But until then, the level of expected volatility across many markets, particularly interest rate and foreign exchange markets, remains unusually low.

在这种背景下，我们认为这些预期波动率可能会上升。

Given this backdrop, we think those levels of expected volatility can rise.

一如既往，感谢您的时间。

Thank you, as always, for your time.

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And also, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.