尽管对人工智能感到焦虑，股市为何仍在上涨

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利首席信息官兼美国股票策略主管。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天在这期播客中，我将讨论近期关于人工智能颠覆的担忧。

Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption.

现在是纽约时间2月24日星期二下午1点，我们开始吧。

It's Tuesday, February 24 at 1PM in New York, so let's get after it.

上周，你能感受到市场中那种不安的暗流。

Last week, you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market.

headlines喧嚣不已，波动性上升，人工智能颠覆再次成为投资者讨论的焦点。

The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption once again dominated investor conversations.

但在表面的不安之下，发生了一些重要的事情。

But beneath the surface level unease, something important happened.

标普500等权重指数攀升至新的相对高点，使我们的市场广度理论持续保持强劲。

The S and P 500 equal weight index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well.

一方面，投资者担心人工智能驱动的颠覆、资本支出强度以及潜在的劳动力减少。

On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions.

另一方面，资本仍在流入此前表现滞后的市场领域，而中位数股票的盈利增长也达到了四年来的最强水平。

On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years.

让我们来深入分析一下。

Let's unpack this.

首先，人们担心人工智能会导致失业。

First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses.

但即使如此，通常也会经历一个过渡阶段。

But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase in period.

公司并不会一夜之间就削减劳动力。

Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight.

重要的是，在这些生产率提升完全实现之前，我们需要企业广泛采用。

Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption.

这意味着构建代理应用层，将人工智能整合到工作流程中，并重新培训系统和流程。

That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes.

这需要时间，在这方面仍处于早期阶段。

That takes time, and it's still early days in that regard.

第二，我们现在看到的正是一个重大投资周期的典型特征。

Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle.

随着市场对无节制支出的速度提出质疑，波动性增加了。

Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending.

随着投资者对赢家和输家展开辩论，分化加剧了。

Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers.

领导力会发生轮动，有时甚至剧烈变化。

Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply.

与上世纪九十年代末的互联网泡沫相比，这次也有一些不同之处。

There's also something different this time compared to the Internet bubble of the late nineteen nineties.

如今，我们正处于一个早期的盈利周期背景中。

Today, we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop.

我们刚刚走出2022年至2025年间实际上的持续衰退。

We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025.

因此，随着资本从被视为结构性输家的领域撤出，它不仅在追逐长期的人工智能受益者。

So as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long term AI beneficiaries.

它也在寻找经典的周期性赢家。

It's also finding classic cyclical winners.

在输家一方是长期服务导向型行业，尤其是软件领域。

On the losing side is long duration services oriented sectors, particularly software.

这些领域对长期现金流的不确定性更为敏感。

These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows.

这一领域还积累了过去十到十五年间投入的大量私人资本。

This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last ten to fifteen years.

还有其他因素在发挥作用。

There are other forces at play too.

小盘成长股，可以说是市场上期限最长的板块，从一月下旬凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席前后开始走弱。

Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Worsch was nominated as Fed chair.

尽管主要指数几乎没有反应，但更具投机性的领域可能正在回应对沃什因其作为资产负债表鹰派而带来的流动性收紧预期。

While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Worsch's reputation as a balance sheet hawk.

最后，当新的美联储主席上任时，股票市场通常会更加波动。

Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed shares assume office.

总之，我们关于早期周期轮动复苏的总体观点仍然成立。

Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact.

即使指数层面的表现显得波动不定，市场内部状况仍具支持性。

Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy.

尽管如此，随着我们进入零售需求较弱的季节性窗口，短期波动可能持续，尽管流动性依然充裕，但远未达到充裕水平。

That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample but far from abundant.

在此背景下，结合医疗保健的优质周期性双杠策略是合理的。

With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with health care makes sense.

在小盘股中，更高品质的标普600指数比罗素2000更具吸引力，任何短期波动都可能为增加对消费必需品、工业和金融等首选周期性领域的敞口提供机会。

In small caps, the higher quality S and P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2,000, and any short term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like consumer discretionary goods, industrials, and financials.

当然，风险依然存在。

Of course, risks remain.

人工智能的采用速度可能快于预期，从而更突然地对劳动力市场造成压力。

AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly.

随着效率的扩散，定价能力可能会被削弱，而政策制定者可能采取抑制资本支出周期的措施，同时拥挤的动量头寸仍处于脆弱状态。

Pricing power could erode as efficiencies spread, and policymakers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable.

然而，内部指标发出的信号是明确的。

Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear.

在波动之下，这看起来更像市场在确认早期经济扩张，而非整体转向下行。

Beneath the volatility, this looks less like a market rolling over and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望您觉得内容有信息量且有用。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎通过留下评论告诉我们您的看法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果您觉得关于市场的这些观点有价值，请告诉朋友或同事也来试试。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

前述内容仅为信息性参考，基于创建时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这并非要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

本内容未考虑您的财务状况和目标，可能不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.