住房负担能力仍面临压力

吉姆，为什么蔓越莓变红了？

Jim, why did the cranberry turn red?

请给我讲讲。

Please enlighten me.

因为它全是火鸡的装饰。

Because it's all the turkey dressing.

希望大家感恩节过得愉快。

I hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving.

欢迎收听《市场观点》。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是杰伊·巴考，摩根士丹利证券化产品研究部门的联席主管。

I'm Jay Bacow, co head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.

我是吉姆·伊根，摩根士丹利证券化产品研究部门的另一位联席主管。

And I'm Jim Egan, the other co head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.

今天，我们将讨论我们对2026年抵押贷款利率的看法，以及这对美国住房市场前景的影响。

Today, we're here to talk about our views for mortgage rates in 2026 and how that flows through to our US housing outlook.

现在是纽约时间12月1日星期一上午11:30。

It's Monday, December 1 at 11:30AM in New York.

Jay，在我们都从周末火鸡大餐后的昏睡中恢复过来后，对于2026年抵押贷款利率的走势，我们是怎么看的？

Now, Jay, as we all get over our turkey induced naps over the weekend, how are we thinking about mortgage rates evolving in 2026?

嗯，正如你我之前在这个播客中讨论过的，美联储降息本身并不会直接导致30年期固定抵押贷款利率下降。

Well, as you and I discussed previously on this podcast, the Fed cutting rates in and of itself doesn't actually cause the thirty year fixed rate mortgage to come down.

不过，我们的利率策略师预测前端利率会下降，这对今年最终的主要利率水平应该会有帮助。

However, our rate strategist forecast for lower rates in the front end should be helpful to where the primary rate ends up this year.

鉴于我们对抵押贷款资产类别的看涨预期，我们还预计主要抵押贷款利率和国债利率之间会出现一些压缩。

And we would also expect some compression between primary mortgage rates and treasury rates, given our bullish outlook for the mortgage asset class.

因此我们预计30年期固定利率将在2026年底达到5.75%左右。

So our expectation is that the thirty year fixed rate ends 2026 around five and three quarters percent.

好的。

Alright.

如果明年年中我们能降到5.75%甚至略低，这将使可负担性达到更健康的水平——当然这是个相对概念。

If we get to five and three quarters, maybe a little bit lower than that in the middle of next year, that's enough to send affordability into a healthier place, but that's a relative term.

尽管购房可负担性仍将面临压力，但相比2023年我们经历的数十年来最具挑战性的水平，它将会有所改善，而且改善幅度相当可观。

Affordability is still going to be under pressure, but it will have improved, and it will have improved at a pretty healthy amount from where we were in the 2023, which was multi decade levels of challenge.

好的，吉姆。

All right, Jim.

显然，抵押贷款利率下降确实会让住房变得更可负担。

So clearly, the mortgage rate coming down does make homes more affordable.

但这足以促使更多房产实际成交吗？

But is it enough to cause more homes to actually transact?

答案是肯定的。

So the answer is yes.

但这个肯定需要从特定角度来理解。

But it's going to be a yes, but answer from that perspective.

我们确实认为交易量将会增加。

We do think the transaction volumes are going to increase.

但从房地产市场整体来看，2023年至2024年间我们已经见证了可负担性的显著提升。

But to put into context where we sit from a housing market perspective, we already saw a healthy increase in affordability from the '23 through the 2024.

对吧？

Right?

但如果我们把这种可负担性的提升放在历史背景中看，过去四十年里我们已经见过大约十次类似情况。

But if we put that affordability improvement in context, we've seen that about 10 times over the past forty years.

唯一几次销售反应比2025年或2009年（金融危机最严重时期）更为冷淡的情况，还有2020年疫情刚爆发时市场真正放缓的时期。

The only times where sales responded more tepidly than they just did in 2025 or in 2009, the teeth of the great financial crisis, and in 2020 when the market really slowed down in the immediate aftermath of COVID.

锁定效应仍在发挥很大作用。

The lock in effect is still playing a very big role.

我们确实认为这种可负担性的持续边际改善会促进购房成交量，但这还不足以让我们达到突破临界点。

We do think that this sustained marginal improvement in affordability will help purchase volumes, but this is not what's going to get us to escape velocity.

我们预测明年购房成交量将增长约3%。

We're calling for about a 3% growth in purchase volumes next year.

好的。

All right.

你刚才已经提到了一点，但如果因为抵押贷款利率下降导致锁定效应减弱，会有更多人愿意挂牌出售房屋吗？

Now you mentioned this a little bit already, but if there's less lock in because the mortgage rate has come down, will more people be willing to list their homes for sale?

我们会在市场上看到更多房源吗？

Are we going get more inventory on the market?

我认为这是我们如何看待未来住房市场的另一个方面。

I think that's the other piece of how we're thinking about housing moving forward.

任何因抵押贷款利率下降带来的可负担性改善，都将伴随着库存量的增加。

Any improvement we get in affordability from lower mortgage rates is going to be paired with increasing inventory volumes.

我们已经看到了这种趋势。

We've already seen that.

挂牌房源量较2023年的历史低点已增长约30%。

Listed inventories are up roughly 30% from historic lows in 2023.

但仍比2019年水平低20%，所以我们目前讨论的并非供应过剩。

They're still 20% where below where they were in 2019, so we're not talking about oversupply at this point.

但在需求没有同步增长的情况下，挂牌房源量的增加抑制了房价增长速度。

But that increase in listed inventories without a contemporaneous increase in demand is weighed on the pace of home price growth.

今年年初全国房价涨幅为4%。

We started this year at plus 4% nationally.

我们已降至低于1.5%的增幅。

We're below plus one and a half percent.

我们认为任何需求的增长都将与挂牌量的增长同步，这将使房价涨幅保持在可控范围内。

We think that any growth in demand will come coincident with the growth in listing volumes that's going to keep home price appreciation under control.

我们预计明年房价涨幅仅为2%，到2027年为3%，但核心观点是当前楼市在这些水平上具有良好支撑。

We're only calling for 2% growth in HPA next year, 3% out in 2027, but the the high level thought here is that the housing market is well supported at these levels.

很难预见明年销量或价格会出现大幅下跌，但同样也难以实现我们预测的低个位数之外的实质性增长。

Difficult to see big decreases in sales volumes or prices next year, but also going to be difficult to really achieve any more material growth in this low single digits we're calling for.

但杰伊，当我们与市场参与者讨论这一前景时，经常被提及的问题是：政府还能采取哪些措施，特别是在可负担性方面，以刺激更多住房市场活动？

But Jay, as you and I are talking about this outlook with market participants, one question that gets brought up frequently is what else can the administration do, especially on the affordability side, to help with instigating more housing activity?

鉴于你讨论过的供需问题挑战，要真正改善可负担性，另一个关键因素就是抵押贷款利率水平。

In order to really help affordability, given the challenges that you've discussed around the supply and demand issues, then the other aspect of that is just what is the mortgage rate?

如果他们采取行动促使抵押贷款利率下降，那将会有所帮助。

And if they were to do things that would cause the mortgage rate to come down, that would be helpful.

目前美联储已宣布将继续从其资产负债表中缩减抵押贷款持有量。

Now, the Fed already has made an announcement that they're going to continue mortgage runoff from their balance sheet.

如果他们停止抵押贷款缩减，那本会有所帮助，但那个时机似乎已经错过了。

If they ended mortgage runoff, that would have helped, but that window seems to have passed.

政府方面已经就新型计划进行了一些讨论。

There's been some discussion from the administration around new types of programs.

特别是，围绕一项五十年期计划的报道很多。

In particular, there was a lot of headlines around a fifty year program.

五十年分期还款计划可能会显著降低房主每月需支付的金额，这将有所帮助。

A fifty year amortization schedule would likely result in a material drop in the monthly payment that the homeowner would make, which would help.

然而，根据这个假设的五十年期抵押贷款利率的具体定价，房主在整个贷款期限内的总利息支付可能约为三十年固定利率抵押贷款的两倍。

However, the total interest payments for that homeowner, depending on exactly where this hypothetical fifty year mortgage rate would price, are probably about double over the life of the loan relative to a thirty year fixed rate mortgage.

因此，我们并不确定这种产品会有很高的接受度。

So we're not really sure that this product would see a huge amount of upkeep.

此外，关于它是否符合合格抵押贷款的定义还存在一些技术性挑战，以及其他细节讨论。

There's also some technical challenges around whether it meets the definition of a qualified mortgage and some other in the weeds discussions.

那我们听到的关于抵押贷款可转让性、可携带性的讨论呢？

What about all the discussion we're hearing around assumability of mortgages, portability of mortgages?

这方面有什么进展吗？

Is there anything there?

根据我们对合同法的理解——我必须承认这方面知识有限，因为我不是律师——我们认为不能对原本不具备可携带性或可继承性的抵押贷款进行追溯性修改，使其具备这些特性。

Based on our understanding of contract law, which I have to confess is limited as I am not a lawyer, we don't think you can retroactively make mortgages portable or assumable that were not already portable or assumable.

所以你可以让新抵押贷款具备可携带性和可继承性。

So you can make new mortgages portable and assumable.

提醒一下，'可携带'意味着如果你有抵押贷款，可以将其带到新房子；'可继承'则意味着抵押贷款会随房子一起转移。

Portable, as a reminder, means that if you have a mortgage, you take it with you to your new house, An assumable means that the mortgage stays with the house.

如果你把房子卖给他人，他们就会继承那份抵押贷款。

If you sell it to somebody else, they get that mortgage.

但现实地说，我们认为这必须是一个新产品，而且由于这个产品会给房主带来新权益，实际上可能会导致他们的抵押贷款利率上升而非下降。

But realistically, we think this would have to be a new product, and because it would be a new product with new benefits to the homeowner, it would actually probably cause their mortgage rate to be higher, not lower.

我想最后再问一个问题。

I guess one last question.

我们讨论的是可负担性问题，目前正通过降低利率来解决这个问题。

We're talking about affordability, and we're addressing it through interest rates being lower.

我们正通过推出新产品的可能性来解决这个问题，尽管在这方面存在一些挑战。

We're addressing it through the potential for new products to be put out there even if there are some challenges around that piece of it.

但抵押贷款本身的需求情况如何？

But what about just demand for mortgages themselves?

你提到美联储可能不会继续购买，但还有其他抵押贷款需求来源能帮助降低利率吗？

You said the Fed might not be a buyer going forward, but are there other pockets of demand for mortgages that could help bring down mortgage rates?

当然。

Sure.

我们预计政府支持企业明年会扩大其投资组合。

So we expect the GSEs to grow their portfolio next year.

这在边际上肯定会有所帮助。

That would certainly be helpful on the margin.

我们预计他们将购买市场上净发行量的不到三分之一。

We expect them to buy about a little less than a third of the net issuance that comes to the market.

我们还认为国内银行可能会重返市场，这有助于降低抵押贷款利率。

We also think that domestic banks could come back to the market, and they could help bring the mortgage rates lower.

但这些变化最多只能帮助抵押贷款利率降低大约八分之一个点到四分之一个点。

But these changes are going to help mortgage rates by in the context of maybe an eighth of a point to a quarter of a point at most.

遗憾的是，这并非万能良药。

It's not a panacea, unfortunately.

好的。

All right.

因此，我们预计明年抵押贷款利率会略有改善， affordability（可负担性）也会小幅提升，这将推动购房量的增长。

So we expect a little bit of an improvement in mortgage rates, a little bit of affordability improvement next year that should lead to growth in purchase volumes.

我认为这还会带动房价的小幅上涨，但当前住房市场处于良好支撑的区间波动状态。

And I think it will lead to a little bit of growth in home prices, but the housing market is well supported range bound here.

吉姆，很高兴与你交谈。

Jim, pleasure talking to you.

也感谢我们所有忠实听众，谢谢你们将市场观点加入你们的收听列表。

And to all our regular listeners, thank you for adding thoughts on the market to your playlist.

无论你在哪里收听这期播客，都请告诉我们你的想法，今天就和朋友或同事分享市场观点吧。

Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast, and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

就像我孩子们常说的，快去猛戳那个订阅按钮吧。

And as my kids would say, go smash that subscribe button.

前述内容仅供参考，基于制作时可获取的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

这既非要约也非招揽，亦不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

未考虑您的财务状况与投资目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.

希望大家感恩节过得愉快，现在我们来聊聊住房和抵押贷款市场。

We hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving, and now we're here to talk about housing and mortgage markets.

你在录音吗？

Are you recording?

这样开场合适吗？

Is that a good way to start?

我觉得这样没什么问题。

I feel like there's nothing wrong with that.

你们在聊些什么？

What are guys talking about?

你得来点老套的。

You gotta go corny.

就像小孩子说的那样。

From like a kid's thing.

你有这些

You got these

时代。

times.

好吧。

Alright.