投资者忽略的看涨信号

欢迎收听市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是摩根士丹利首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管迈克·威尔逊。

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and chief US equity strategist.

今天在播客中，我将讨论推动我们对2026年看涨预期的市场合力因素。

Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026.

现在是纽约时间1月5日周一上午11:30，让我们开始吧。

It's Monday, January 5 at 11:30AM in New York, so let's get after it.

新年通常是展望未来的时刻，但今天我想退一步谈谈市场忽略的因素。

The New Year is usually a time to look forward, but today, I wanna take a step back and talk about what the market is missing.

一系列看涨催化剂正同时涌现，而市场仍低估它们的集体影响。

A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact.

当前大量关注点集中在个别利好因素：稳健的盈利增长和美联储进一步宽松。

There's been a lot of focus on individual positives, solid earnings growth, and further Fed easing.

但我们认为，真正的关键在于这些因素如何相互强化。

But in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another.

放松监管、积极的经营杠杆、宽松的货币政策以及日益支持性的财政政策，都在朝着同一方向发力。

Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction.

随着我们进入今年晚些时候的中期选举，这些政策杠杆很可能继续保持支持性。

And as we head into midterm elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.

重要的是，当前市场尚未充分反映我所预见的这些结果。

Importantly, this isn't a market that's already priced for the outcomes I envision.

周期性交易的持仓仍相对较轻，经济敏感领域的市场情绪远未达到狂热程度。

Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant.

基本面改善与谨慎持仓的这种组合，恰恰是复苏初期阶段的典型特征。

That combination of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery.

我仍然认为这些利好因素在周期性领域最被低估，如非必需消费品、金融、工业以及中小盘股。

I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like consumer discretionary goods, financials, industrials, and small and mid cap stocks.

我们追踪的许多指标才刚刚开始转好。

Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher.

在我看来，这并不像是周期末期的表现。

This doesn't look late cycle to me.

在我看来，这正处于我所认为的滚动复苏的早期阶段。

It looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery.

投资者犹豫不决的一个原因是传统商业周期指标的疲软，尤其是ISM制造业采购经理人指数。

One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business cycle indicators, particularly the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index.

在这些指标明确重新加速之前，市场对周期性交易一直持谨慎态度。

There's been a reluctance to press cyclical trades until those gauges clearly reaccelerate.

这种犹豫背后潜藏着一种持续的不安——美国经济甚至可能再度陷入严重恐慌。

And beneath that hesitation is a lingering anxiety that The US economy could even slip back into a gross scare.

我的观点有所不同。

My view is different.

我认为为期三年的滚动衰退已在四月的解放日结束。

I believe a three year rolling recession ended with Liberation Day back in April.

如果属实，那么我们当前在滞后劳动力数据中看到的温和疲软对股市是有利的，因为这会让美联储更长时间保持鸽派立场并采取更激进措施，这对股市是积极的。

If that's true, then the moderate softness we're now witnessing in lagging labor data is constructive for equities because it keeps the Fed leaning dovish for longer and more aggressive, a positive for equities.

我认为2025年将是关键宏观指标的触底过程，而2026年将形成重新加速的一年。

I see the 2025 as the bottoming process for key macro indicators, with 2026 shaping up as a year of reacceleration.

长期周期分析支持这一观点，具体而言，ISM制造业采购经理人指数的45个月周期指向反弹。

Longer cycle analysis supports this, Specifically, the forty five month cycle of the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index points to a rebound.

这一复苏虽被延迟但并未取消。

That recovery has been delayed but not canceled.

另一个几乎未获足够关注的利好因素是能源价格。

Another tailwind that doesn't get nearly enough attention is energy prices.

特别是汽油价格正处于近五年低点，这为低收入和中等收入消费者提供了实质性的经济缓解。

Gasoline prices in particular are sitting near five year lows, which is providing real economic relief for lower and middle income consumers.

这种缓冲很重要，尤其是在经济其他部分企稳之际。

That cushion matters, especially as other parts of the economy firm.

上周末委内瑞拉的事件表明油价可能长期保持低位。

This past weekend's events in Venezuela argued for lower oil prices for longer.

从行业角度来看，金融板块是去监管化的主要受益者，这些股票在过去一年因预期这些变化而表现优异。

From a sector standpoint, financials stand out as the key beneficiary of deregulation, and these stocks have been great performers over the past year in anticipation of these changes.

我认为2026年还会有更多上涨空间。

I think there's more to go in 2026.

住房可能成为经济复苏的另一个重要组成部分。

Housing could be another important piece of the recovery.

工资增长放缓和租金下降可能对房价构成压力，而一些建筑商正优先考虑销量而非利润率。

Subdued wage growth and falling rents may pressure home prices, while some builders are prioritizing volume over margins.

虽然这可能限制建筑商的盈利能力，但却能提升住房交易流动性，并为更温和的通胀环境创造条件。

While that may cap profitability for the builders, it could unlock housing velocity and feed into a more dovish inflation backdrop.

当然，风险也同样存在。

Of course, there are also risks.

自9月以来，流动性一直是我们最关注的问题，市场已通过投机性资产疲软反映了这一点。

Liquidity has been our top concern since September, and markets have reflected that through weakness in speculative assets.

好消息是美联储已通过提前结束量化紧缩和重启储备管理计划的资产购买作出回应。

The good news is that the Fed has responded by ending quantitative tightening early and restarting asset purchases through the reserve management program.

这实际上为过去几个月出现压力迹象的金融体系注入了流动性。

This effectively adds liquidity to a system that was showing signs of stress this past several months.

另一个风险是人工智能资本支出再度放缓，特别是在市场要求债务融资支出获得更明确回报的情况下。

Another risk is a renewed slowdown in AI CapEx, particularly as markets demand clearer payback from debt funded spending.

在地缘政治方面，美国对委内瑞拉的干预引发了新的问题。

And geopolitically, The US intervention in Venezuela raises new questions.

从战略角度看，此举强化了美国在西半球的影响力，并支持我们的热点议题主张，但关键变数仍在于中国是否选择作出反应。

Strategically, it reinforces US influence in the Western Hemisphere and supports our run at hot thesis, but the key wildcard remains whether China chooses to react.

总体而言，我们认为风险与回报的平衡仍倾向于支持这轮早期复苏周期，以及我们对2026年美国股市的看涨预期。

Net net, we think the balance of risk and reward still favor leaning into this early cycle recovery and our bullish outlook for US equities in 2026.

感谢收听。

Thanks for tuning in.

希望您觉得这些信息既翔实又有用。

I hope you found it informative and useful.

欢迎留下评论告诉我们您的想法。

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

如果您认为这些市场观点有价值，请推荐给朋友或同事尝试收听。

And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

前述内容仅供参考，基于制作时可获得的信息。

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

本内容并非要约或招揽，也不构成税务或法律建议。

It is not an offer or solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice.

它未考虑您的财务状况与投资目标，可能并不适合您。

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.