股票投资者的新剧本

欢迎来到市场观点。

Welcome to thoughts on the market.

我是 Serena Tang，摩根士丹利的首席大类资产策略师。

I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's chief cross asset strategist.

今天，我们将与摩根士丹利投资管理部的两位资深领导重新探讨 2026 年全球股市展望。

Today, we're revisiting the 2026 global equity outlook with two senior leaders from Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

我是 Anir Salman，摩根士丹利投资管理部应用股票团队负责人。

I'm Anir Salman, head of applied equity team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

我是 Jatanya Gandhari，解决方案与多资产团队的副首席投资官，Passport 策略的投资经理，同时也是摩根士丹利投资管理部新兴市场股票宏观与主题研究负责人。

And I'm Jatanya Gandhari, deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi Asset Group, portfolio manager for Passport Strategies, and head of macro and thematic Research for Emerging Market Equities within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

今天是纽约时间 2 月 3 日，星期二，上午 10 点。

It's Tuesday, February 3 at 10AM in New York.

随着投资者进入 2026 年，经历了数年强劲的股市回报，且政策支持重新加速，正如常听节目的听众可能已经听到的那样，摩根士丹利的首席投资官兼美国股票策略主管 Mike Wilson 认为，我们在去年四月结束了为期三年的滚动盈利衰退，进入了滚动复苏和新一轮牛市。

So as investors are entering in 2026 after several years of very strong equity returns with policy support reaccelerating, as regular listeners have probably heard, Mike Wilson, who of course is the CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley, His view is that we ended a three year rolling earnings recession in last April and entered a rolling recovery and a new bull market.

现在，Andrew，本着辩论的精神，我知道你对估值和我们所处的周期阶段有不同看法。

Now, Andrew, in the spirit of debate, I know you have a different take on valuations and where we are at in the cycle.

我很想听听你是如何向投资管理客户阐述这一点的。

I'd love to hear how you're framing this for investment management clients.

是的。

Yeah.

我的关注点更多放在行为周期上。

I mean, I guess I focus a little bit more on the behavioral cycle.

我认为从行为周期来看，我们正遵循一个非常一致的模式：2022年经历了一场严重的熊市，跌幅达25%。

And I think that from a behavioral cycle, we're following a very consistent pattern, which is we had a bad bear market in 2022 that bottomed down 25%.

这为我们提供了一个绝佳的投资机会。

And that provided a wonderful opportunity to invest.

但在行为周期的早期，投资者往往非常悲观。

But early in a behavioral cycle, investors are very pessimistic.

这正是2023年乃至2024年的主旋律——投资者对股市持负面看法。

And that was really the story of '23 and really 2024, which were investors, you know, were negative on equities.

各种指标都表现低迷，投资者纷纷抛售股票。

The ratios were all very negative and investors sold out of equities.

这与早期周期是一致的。

And that's consistent with a early cycle.

当你进入第三年和第四年时，对回报的预期往往会变得更加乐观。

And then as you move into the third and fourth year, tend to get more optimistic about returns.

这并不一定意味着市场会下跌，但它意味着市场往往会变得更加波动，回报开始收窄，最终牛市会在狂热中终结。

Doesn't necessarily mean the market goes down, but it, what it does mean is the market tends to get more volatile and returns start to compress and ultimately bull markets die in euphoria.

所以我认为现在处于周期后期，但还不是周期的终点。

And so I think it's late cycle, but it's not end of cycle.

我的观点就是周期后期，但不是周期的终点。

And that's my theme is late cycle, but not end of cycle.

我认为在这一点上，这个环境的一个非常不寻常的特征是，货币政策和财政政策同时提供支持，而这在衰退之外的情况中很少见。

And I think on that point, one very unusual feature of this environment is that you have both monetary and fiscal policy being supportive at the same time, which, of course, like rarely happens outside of a recession.

那么，你如何看待这两种政策力量共同塑造市场行为，以及市场的哪些部分会受益？

So how do you see those dual policy forces sort of shaping market behavior and which parts of the market tend to benefit?

没错，正是如此。

Well, that's exactly right.

你看，我最后一次查看时，投资手册第一页就写着：不要与美联储作对。

Look, the last time I checked, the page one of the investment handbook says don't fight the Fed.

因此，当前货币政策正在放松。

And so you have monetary policy easing.

你还记得2021年发生了什么吗？

And what we you remember what happened in 2021.

美联储加息，货币政策正在收紧。

The fed raised rates and monetary policy was tightening.

当美联储放松政策时，股市表现良好。

Equities do well when the fed is easing.

这也是我认为这不是周期末尾的原因之一。

And that's one of the reasons why I think it's not end of cycle.

再加上即将出台的减税财政政策。

And then you layer in fiscal policy with tax relief coming.

这使得我们对2026年的股市持相对乐观态度，但这并不意味着途中不会出现波动。

It is a reason to be relatively optimistic on equities in 2026, but it doesn't mean there can't be bumps along the way.

我认为，我们今天所看到的更高程度的乐观情绪正是由此带来的。

And I think a higher level of optimism as we're seeing today is a result of that.

但我认为你应该继续持有那些更具顺周期性的领域，比如金融、工业和科技，然后稍微向资本曲线的下游移动。

But I think you stick with those more procyclical areas, finance, industrials, technology, and then you move down the the cap curve a little bit.

我认为这些才是制胜的交易策略。

I think those are the winning trades.

它们在去年下半年开始显著崛起，我认为这种趋势将持续到2026年。

They really started to come to the fore in the second half of last year, and I think that will continue into 2026.

好的。

All right.

但最近我们确实经历了一些波动。

And we've seen some bumps recently.

不过，关于收益率这一点，贾塔尼亚，我认为这个政策背景直接支持了你提出的‘利率受限时代’的观点。

But I think on your point around sort of yields, so Jatania, I think that policy backdrop really ties directly to your idea of the age of capped real rates.

简单来说，你能解释一下这指的是什么，以及这种观点的依据是什么吗？

In very simple terms, can you explain what that means and what's behind that view?

当然。

Sure.

当我提到实际利率被限制的时代时，我指的是我所依据的结构性框架。

When I say age of real rates being capped, I mean like the structural template within which I'm operating.

这里的实际利率是指经CPI调整后的国债收益率。

And real rates here are defined by the tenure on the Treasury yield adjusted for CPI.

首先，我认为在‘解放日’之后，市场过于线性地思考问题，认为关税等于通胀，通胀等于更高利率。

Firstly, I'd say there was too much linear thinking in markets post Liberation Day, that tariffs equals inflation equals higher rates.

如今，正如我们所见，关税的影响可以通过多种方式被抵消。

Now, tariff impacts, as we have seen, can be offset in several ways.

经济关系很少是线性的。

And economic relationships are rarely linear.

因此，通胀可能不会达到市场预期的水平。

So inflation may not go up to the extent market is expecting.

这就支持了利率受限的观点。

So that supports the case for capped rates.

真正的限制其实是债务的算术，对吧？

And the real constraint is the debt arithmetic, right?

如果你看一下美国公共债务的历史，每当在内战、两次世界大战、全球金融危机甚至新冠疫情期间公共债务激增时，实际利率都保持为负。

So if you look at the history of public debt in The US, whenever there was a surge in public debt during the Civil War, two world wars, global financial crisis, even during COVID, In all these periods when debt spiked, real rates have remained negative.

所以利率可能会有短期波动。

So there can be short term swings in rates.

但我相信，市场（而不仅仅是央行）甚至会强制维持这一上限。

But I believe that markets, not necessarily central banks, will even enforce that cap.

你把这一时刻描述为2026年的广泛扩张。

You've described this moment as the great broadening of twenty twenty six.

是什么推动了这一变化？在经历了多年的高度集中之后，你现在认为正在发生什么？

What's driving this and what do you think is happening now after years of very narrow concentration?

是的，我认为如果上一个十年是关于集中的，那么现在将转向广泛性。

Yes, I think like if last decade was about concentration, now it's going to be about breadth.

如果你看看集中发生在哪些领域，那就是七大科技巨头和人工智能领域。

And if you look at where the concentration was, it was in the Mega Seven, in the AI trade.

我们开始看到共识中出现了一些裂痕：采用正在发生，但货币化却滞后了。

We are beginning to see some cracks in the consensus where adoption is happening, but monetization is lagging.

但显然，下一阶段的价值创造可能来自从模型构建到应用层的转变，正如你们也提到的，从赋能者转向采用者。

But clearly, the next phase of value creation could happen from just the model building to the application layer, as you guys have also talked about, from enablers to adopters.

我们看到的另一件事是，全球正在形成两个AI生态系统：高成本、前沿创新的美国引擎，和低成本、效率驱动的中国模式。

The other thing we're seeing is two AI ecosystems evolve globally, the high cost cutting edge US innovation engine and the lower cost efficiency driven Chinese model.

它们各自都有不同的供应链受益者。

Each of them have their own supply chain beneficiaries.

随着人工智能向物理世界延伸，你将看到更多机遇。

And as AI is moving into the physical world, you're going to see more opportunities.

其次，我认为全球范围内的关税政策存在局限性。

And then secondly, I think there are limitations on this tariff policies globally.

对我而言，关税担忧更像是一种幻觉而非现实，因为美国需要进口大量中间产品。

And tariff fears, to me, remain more of an illusion than a reality because US needs to import a lot of intermediate goods.

最后，我看到世界许多其他地区国内经济周期正在向上转折。

And then lastly, I see domestic cycles inflecting upwards in many other pockets of the world.

如果把这些因素加总起来，信息很明确：领导力正在扩大，投资组合也应随之扩大。

And if you add all this up, the message is clear that leadership is broadening and portfolios should broaden, too.

我仍然想继续探讨一下这个广泛化的话题。

And I still want to sort of stay on this topic of broadening.

所以，安德鲁，我认为你也强调了这种市场扩展，尤其是在大型龙头股之外，即使人工智能投资仍在继续，正如前面提到的。

So Andrew, I think you've also highlighted this market broadening, especially beyond the large cap leaders, even as AI investment continues, I think as touched on earlier.

那么，这对2026年股票市场的领导力意味着什么？

So why does that matter for equity leadership in 2026?

你能谈谈这种广泛化对整体估值的影响吗？

And can you talk about the impact of this broadening on valuations in general?

当然。

Sure.

我觉得，我在这个行业很久了，还记得互联网刚兴起时，1993年Mosaic浏览器问世。

So I think, you know, I've been around a long time and I remember when the Internet first rolled out, the mosaic browser was introduced in 1993.

当时股市首先想做的，就是选出谁会赢得互联网——你知道的，搜索领域的胜利者。

And the first thing the stock market tried to do is appoint winners of who was going to win the internet, you know, search race.

那时候是Ask Jeeves、雅虎和网景。

And it was ask Jeeves and it was Yahoo and it was Netscape.

这些都不是最终的赢家。

None of those were the winners.

我们真的不知道谁最终会成为科技领域的赢家。

We just don't know who's ultimately going to be the tech winner.

我认为，就像互联网一样，AI是一种提升生产力的技术工具，这一点更安全可靠。

I think it's much safer to know that just like the internet, AI is a technology productivity enhancing tool.

公司会像拥抱互联网一样拥抱AI。

And companies are going to embrace AI just like they embrace the internet.

1997年到互联网泡沫顶峰期间，股市翻了一倍，原因在于许多行业中的公司采纳互联网后，生产率和利润率都得到了提升。

And the reason the stock market doubled between 1997 and the .com peak was that productivity margins went up for a lot of companies in a lot of industries as they embraced the Internet.

因此，对我而言，关注广泛分布、估值较低的领域，比断言谁是科技赢家、谁是输家要安全得多。

So to me, a broadening out and looking at lower valuations, it is in many ways safer than saying this is the technology winner and this is technology loser.

我认为，众多不同行业都将采纳并受益于AI带来的变革。

I think it's all many different industries are going to embrace and benefit what's going on with AI.

你不想知道我1993年在哪儿，而且我也不认识大多数那些名字。

You don't want to know where I was in 1993, and I don't recognize most of those names.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我当时14岁。

I was 14.

好吧。

Okay.

投资者常常听到两种相互矛盾的说法：忽略宏观因素，买入优秀公司；或者让大趋势主导一切。

Investors often hear two competing messages: ignore the macro and buy great companies or let the big picture drive everything.

在你的投资过程中，你如何平衡自上而下的信号与自下而上的基本面？

How do you balance top down signals with bottom up fundamentals in your investment process?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你必须两者结合使用。

I I think you have to employ both.

我经常听到这种说法，尤其是我的竞争对手们。

And I hear that all the time, especially I hear, you know, my competitors.

哦，我只关注我的选股，我的自下而上分析。

Oh, I just focus on my stock picks, my bottom up.

但你知道，从统计上看，基金经理相对业绩的三分之二来自宏观因素。

But, you know, look, statistically, two thirds of a manager's relative performance comes from macro.

你知道吗？

You know?

成长股表现如何？

How did growth do?

价值股表现如何？

How did value do?

所有这些都跟具体选股无关。

All those types of things that have nothing to do with what stock picks.

同样，单只股票的回报很大程度上不仅取决于其基本面，还受到公司层面之外因素的影响。

And likewise, much of a return of an individual stock has to do with things beyond just it's, what's happening fundamentally, but some of it comes from what's happening at the company level.

所以我认为，要成为一个优秀的投资者，你必须关注宏观因素，今年美联储降息是一个非常强大的工具。

So I think to be a great investor, you have to be aware of the macro, The fed cutting rates this year is a very powerful tool.

如果你不了解这一举措对不同类型股票的影响，而只专注于微观层面，我认为这是个错误。

And if you don't understand the implications of that as per what types of stocks work, because you're so focused on the micro, I think that's a mistake.

同样，你也必须了解你所投资公司的状况，因为三分之一的回报确实来自于具体的股票选择。

Likewise, you have to know what's going on in your company because one third of the return does come from actual stock selection.

因此，我坚信要将自上而下和自下而上的方法结合起来，以捕捉三分之二和三分之一的收益。

So I'm a big believer in marrying a top down and a bottoms up and try to capture the two thirds and the one third.

自从你之前提到的2022年熊市低点以来，你的框架确实更青睐成长股和价值股，而非防御性股票。

Since that 2022 bear market low that you talked about earlier, I mean, your framework really favored growth and value over defensives.

但我觉得最近你增加了对美国以外市场的配置。

But I think more recently, you've increased your non US exposure.

是什么样的宏观信号和基本面数据变化，让你觉得全球机会现在更具吸引力？

What changed in your top down signals and bottom up data to make global opportunities more compelling now?

是因为美国例外论终结的叙事，还是其他原因？

Is it like the narrative of the end of US exceptionalism or something else?

不是。

No.

我真觉得是别的原因，那就是我们从世界其他地区——欧洲和日本——捕捉到了与过去十年完全不同的信号，即顺周期股票开始表现良好。

I really think it's actually something else, which is we have picked up signals from other parts of the world, Europe and Japan, that are different signals than we saw really for the last decade, which is namely that pro cyclical stocks started to work.

价值股在2025年开始表现良好。

Value stocks started to work in the 2025.

当你回顾历史，当这种情况发生时，价值股通常不会持续表现一年，而是会落后。

And you look at the history of when that happens, usually value doesn't work for a year and, and Peter out.

因此，这是一个巨大的变化，我可以说，更保守的策略已经显示出相对领先，我们必须认识到这一点。

So that's been a huge change where I would say, a safer orientation has shown the relative leadership And we have to be recognized that.

因此，在我们的MARGLOBAL策略中，我们长期以来一直大幅偏向美国市场，因为我们没有看到海外有明显的周期性信号。

So in our MARGLOBAL strategies, we've been heavily weighted towards The US orientation because we didn't see really a cyclical bias outside.

但现在这种情况正在改变，这促使我们增加了对非美国市场的配置。

And now that's changing and that has caused us to increase the allocation to non US exposure.

这么说吧，去年的故事其实是：美国市场表现不错，但世界其他一些地区表现得更好。

It's a long winded way of saying, look, I think what the story of last year was The US did just fine, but there were parts of the world that did better.

我认为这一趋势在2026年将继续。

And I think that will continue in 2026.

所以，乔塔尼亚，基于这一点，你认为2026年在美国以外最大的投资机会在哪里？

So Jotania, I think with that in mind, where do you see the biggest investment opportunities in 2026 outside The US?

是的。

Yeah.

我会从美国和非美国市场（即全球指数剔除美国部分）的市场结构来分析，对吧？

So I'll break it down between The US and the AQIX US, which is the All Country World Index, ex US, the market configuration, right?

如果科技和科技相关股票在美国占到40%，那么在剔除美国的全球指数中，工业和金融板块则占到40%，对吧？

If tech and tech related names are like 40% of The US, in the AQIX US universe, it's industrials and financials, which are 40% of that index, right?

所以，正如安德鲁所说，不同国家正处于不同的周期阶段。

So similar to what Andrew said, there is a cyclical stage in different countries.

欧洲的多个地区都显得非常有吸引力，包括核心国家、边缘国家，以及新兴欧洲市场。

Europe, different pockets look very interesting, both in core, in periphery, and also in the emerging Europe.

总体来看，新兴市场在本轮周期中明显恢复了财政和货币信誉。

Overall, emerging markets, they've clearly restored fiscal and monetary credibility in this cycle.

因此，在这个复杂的体系中存在一个结构性的积极故事。

So there is a structural positive story within that complex.

再次强调，这是一个异质性的资产类别。

Again, it's a heterogeneous asset class.

因此，你有新的中国，它正在向制造业和技术转型，并构建了我提到的AI生态系统。

So you have the new China with the manufacturing and technology pivot and the AI ecosystem that I talked about.

北亚市场同时处于美国和中国的供应链之中。

The North Asian markets, are in the supply chain of both US and China.

韩国的一些领域，如国防、生物科技和造船，由于是美国的供应商，因此是有趣的投资机会。

Some of the sectors in Korea, like defense, biotech, shipbuilding, are interesting opportunities because they are vendors to US.

印度是我们一直讨论的结构性市场。

India is a structural market we've talked about all the time.

拉丁美洲方面，由于特朗普对该地区持相对积极的态度，以及各国央行良好的财政和货币政策管理。

And Latin America, with Trump's relatively positive stance on the region, good fiscal monetary management by central banks.

因此，在当前的经济周期和市场周期阶段，全球各地都散布着大量投资机会。

So lots of opportunities scattered all over the world at this stage of the economic cycle and their market cycle.

安德鲁、贾塔尼亚，非常感谢你们抽出时间与我们交谈。

Andrew, Jatanya, thank you so much for taking the time to talk.

很高兴与你交流，塞雷娜。

Great speaking with you, Serena.

谢谢你们邀请我们参加这个节目。

Thanks for having us on the show.

我们在听。

Listening.

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