历史的潮起潮落

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数千双军靴、马蹄、火炮轮和补给车碾过路面的轰鸣震颤着大地。

The rumble of thousands of booted feet, hooves, and the wheels of cannons and supply wagons shook the pavement.

金属剑带与钢制胸甲碰撞发出铿锵声响。

Metal sword belts clang against steel breastplates.

六七种嘈杂的法语和德语方言在喧嚣中交织融合。

The clamor of a half dozen noisy varieties of French and German mixed and melded above the racket.

数千具未清洗躯体散发的汗臭，即便在冬日寒意中仍弥漫于空气。

The stink of thousands of unwashed bodies sweating even in the winter chill permeated the air.

这是月球上的一支军队，由法国国王查理八世率领的军队。

This was an army on the moon, an army led by the French king Charles the eighth.

欧洲权力政治的新时代即将拉开帷幕。

A new era of European power politics was about to begin.

那是1494年12月。

It was December 1494.

查理八世率领一支精锐部队入侵意大利，这支军队由身着闪亮板甲的职业骑兵和先进火炮组成，能够轰开任何中世纪城堡的城墙。

Charles the eighth had invaded Italy with a cutting edge army of professional cavalrymen in shining plate armor and advanced artillery capable of blasting holes in the wall of any medieval castle.

其中有8000名面无表情的瑞士雇佣兵。

There were 8,000 stone faced Swiss mercenaries.

他们如刺猬般的方阵，配备15英尺长的长矛，可以碾压任何抵抗。

Their hedgehog formations, bristling with 15 foot pikes, could roll through any opposition.

这是当时金钱能买到的最先进的军队。

This was the most advanced army money could buy.

支撑这支军队的是一个专业官僚体系，它以工业化规模评估并征收税款。

What paid for that army was a professional bureaucracy that assessed and collected taxes on an industrial scale.

看着军队经过的托斯卡纳农民从未见过这样的场面。

The Tuscan peasants who watched the soldiers pass by had never seen anything like this.

确实没有。

No.

他们对战争并不陌生。

They weren't strangers to war.

意大利的城邦之间经常交战，但他们从未见过如此多的大炮。

The city states of Italy fought each other constantly, but they'd never seen so many cannons.

他们从未见过这些坚韧顽强的瑞士职业军人。

They'd never seen the tough, hard bitten Swiss professionals.

最重要的是，他们从未一次性见过这么多士兵。

Most of all, they'd never seen so many soldiers all at once.

意大利即将成为那些国家资源的战场，其破坏力远超这些农民所见所闻，甚至超出他们的理解范围。

Italy was about to become a battlefield for states whose resources and destructive capabilities were miles beyond anything these peasants had ever seen or could even comprehend.

这里正在发生某种新事物，某种真正令人恐惧的事物。

There was something new, something truly frightening happening here.

站在这个古老道路旁的有利位置，我们可以看到这个世界的根源——一个与我们今天认知相似的世界。

From this vantage point, standing here by this ancient road, we can see the roots of a world that's recognizably our own.

这里是Wondery出品的《历史浪潮》。

From Wondery, this is Tides of History.

我是帕特里克·怀曼。

I'm Patrick Wyman.

欢迎收听第一期节目。

Welcome to the first episode.

我最喜欢的历史学家之一费尔南·布罗代尔曾写道：'事件乃至个人，不过是历史深层潮流那强健脊背上所承载的浪花之巅。'

One of my favorite historians, Fernand Braudel, wrote, Events, and even individual people, are just crests of foam on top of the waves that the deeper tides of history carry on their strong backs.

我是一名历史学家。

I'm a historian.

过去十年的大部分时间，我都在研究大约从三月开始的时期，即罗马帝国衰亡的历史。

I've spent the better part of the last decade working on the period from roughly March, the fall of the Roman Empire.

这正是我博士论文的研究方向。

That's what my PhD was on.

这段历史时期也是我上一档播客《罗马的陨落》的焦点。

It's a period in history that I focused on in my last podcast, the fall of Rome.

如果你一直在收听那档节目，请别担心。

If you've been listening to that show, don't worry.

你喜欢那档节目的一切内容这里也都会保留。

Everything you liked about that one will still be here too.

这个时期一直令我着迷，因为它告诉我们：无论我们世界的根基看似多么根深蒂固，一切仍可能分崩离析。

And it's a time that's always fascinated me because it tells us that no matter how deeply rooted the foundations of our world seem, things can still fall apart.

没有什么能永恒存在。

Nothing lasts forever.

公元425年生活在罗马帝国的人们无法想象没有帝国的世界，就像我们被环境所限，总认为自己生活在永恒的美国、加拿大或英国。

People living in the Roman Empire in 04/25 couldn't imagine a world without it, just as we're conditioned to think of ourselves as living in an eternal America, Canada, or United Kingdom.

然而五十年后，罗马帝国便不复存在。

Fifty years later, though, the Roman Empire was gone.

又过了五十年，人们才真正接受这个事实。

It took another fifty years after that for people to come to terms with it.

在历史长河中，这不过是转瞬之间。

That's a relative blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things.

关于罗马的话题我还没说完。

Now I'm not done talking about Rome.

远不止如此。

Far from it.

仍有太多问题等待解答，比如罗马帝国东半部——那个没有崩溃的部分——当时发生了什么？

There are still so many questions left to answer, like what was happening in the Eastern half of the Roman Empire, the part that didn't fall apart?

为什么城市会衰落并消失？

Why did cities decline and disappear?

基督教是如何以及为何主导了宗教领域？

How and why did Christianity come to dominate the religious scene?

气候变化在其中扮演了怎样的角色？

How did a changing climate play into all of this?

别担心。

Rest easy.

我们还有很多内容要讨论。

We still have plenty left to discuss.

但在这个新系列中，我还会尝试一些不同的做法。

But in this new series, I'm going to be doing something a bit different as well.

我一直对历史中的重大变革和重大问题充满兴趣。

I've always been fascinated with big changes, with the big questions of history.

还有另一个话题充满了这类颠覆世界根基的剧变。

There's another topic that's chock full of these kinds of shifts, things that rocked the very foundations of the world.

我称之为现代世界的崛起。

I'm calling it the rise of the modern world.

本系列将涵盖约公元1350年至1650年间的时期，大致从黑死病到三十年战争和英国内战。

And this series will cover the period between about 1350 and sixteen fifty AD, roughly the Black Death to the Thirty Years' War and the English Civil War.

为什么选择这个时期？

Why this time?

因为正如标题所示，我认为这正是我们当今日常所见世界的根源所在。

Well, because as the title implies, I think this is where the roots of our world, the world we see around us every day, are to be found.

我在研究生院时，从未被教导如何面向大众讲述，甚至从未被鼓励这样做。

So when I was in graduate school, we were never taught to talk to a general audience or even really encouraged to do it.

我们本应只为专业学者写作。

We were supposed to write for specialist academics.

本质上，我们让大众无法接触到我们的研究成果。

Essentially, we were making our work inaccessible to the broader public.

一方面，这可以理解。

On one hand, that makes sense.

你处理的是深奥的课题，需要精确和具体。

You're dealing with esoteric topics, and you need to be precise and specific.

但另一方面，你也主动切断了与那些对历史感兴趣、想要了解更多的大众的联系。

On the other hand, though, you're explicitly cutting yourself off from interested people who might like to know more about the past.

这么说可能听起来老套，但我真心认为历史很重要。

It might sound corny to say this, but I genuinely think history matters.

历史是理解我们当今世界的极其强大的工具，这有两个原因。

It's an incredibly powerful tool for understanding our own world for two reasons.

首先，它告诉我们是如何走到今天的。

First, it tells us how we got to where we are now.

这一点很重要。

That's important to know.

若不理解那些定义我们的事物的根源——从法律体系到种族关系，就很难全面理解我们的生活和时代。

It's pretty hard to have a full understanding of our life and times without grasping the roots of the things that define us, from the legal system to race relations.

但其次，历史告诉我们世界并非必须如此。

Second, though, history tells us that the world doesn't have to be as it is.

事情并非注定要以它们发生的方式发生。

Things weren't destined to happen the way they did.

我们组织事物的方式，无论是国家结构还是婚姻定义，都不是唯一可能的方式。

The way we've organized things, whether we're talking about the structure of the state or the definition of marriage, it's not the only possible way to do it.

劳动制度、宗教体验、甚至关于人际关系的基本假设，这些都不是一成不变的。

Labor systems, religious experience, even basic assumptions about how people relate to each other, none of that's set in stone.

从这个意义上说，我认为历史应该是有用的。

In that sense, I think history should be useful.

它应该试图解释世界为何是现在这样，以及它为何会随时间改变。

It should try to explain why the world is the way it is and why it's changed over time.

它应该努力为人们提供思考过去和当下的范例与比较。

It should strive to give people examples and comparisons with which to think both about the past and the present day.

我这么说，不只是指用现在的眼光解读过去。

By that, I don't just mean reading the present back onto the past.

正如马克·吐温所说，历史不会重演，但总会押着相似的韵脚。

As Mark Twain put it, history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

历史赋予我们思考的工具。

History gives us tools to think with.

它帮助我们确定该提出哪些问题，以及如何构建答案。

It helps us figure out what questions to ask and how to frame our answers.

罗马帝国的衰亡与现代世界的兴起这两个主题，恰好为我们提供了大量这样的思考机会。

These two topics, the fall of Rome and the rise of the modern world, give us a lot of opportunities to do just that.

关于罗马衰亡的讨论要点我已经提过一些，现在让我简要概述下《现代世界的崛起》要探讨的内容。

I already mentioned a few things we'll be discussing with regard to the fall of Rome, but let me give you a brief outline of what we'll be covering here in The Rise of the Modern World.

主权国家从中世纪后期混乱的政治格局中崛起，击败了所有对手，成为我们至今仍生活其中的民族国家的结构与制度基础。

The sovereign state rose out of the messy politics of the later Middle Ages to vanquish its opposition, becoming the structural and institutional basis of the nation states we still inhabit today.

战争持续时间更长、强度更大，军队也从以弓箭手和骑士为主的临时封建征召兵，发展为由国家复杂税收体系供养的、配备火器与火炮的职业常备军。

Wars increased in duration and intensity, while armies changed from temporary feudal levies dominated by archers and knights to standing armies of professionals with firearms and cannon, paid for by a complex state apparatus of taxation.

资本主义经济逻辑的雏形也在此时期的金融市场和会计实践中显现，这些对我们今天来说已颇为熟悉。

The beginnings of capitalistic economic logic can be found here too in financial markets and accounting practices that seem familiar to us today.

如果你曾使用过Excel表格，那得感谢佛罗伦萨银行家们发明的复式记账法。

If you've ever had to deal with an Excel spreadsheet, you can thank Florentine bankers and their double entry bookkeeping for that.

印刷术从根本上改变了信息传播方式和人类知识的积累方式。

The printing press fundamentally transformed communication and the accumulation of human knowledge.

这只是这一时期众多技术革新成果中的一项。

That was just one of a host of technological innovations that came to fruition around this time.

科学实践同样得到发展，证明了地球围绕太阳运转，并最终在牛顿的伟大发现中达到顶峰。

Scientific practices evolved as well, proving that the Earth rotates around the sun and eventually culminating in Newton's great discoveries.

文艺复兴在艺术、文学、建筑和思想领域绽放出惊人的文化繁荣。

The Renaissance produced an incredible cultural efflorescence in art, literature, architecture, and thought.

甚至有人认为，我们现代所理解的'个人'概念，正是诞生于十四、十五世纪的北意大利城邦。

Some would even say that the concept of the individual, as we understand it, was born in the cities of Northern Italy in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries.

数个世纪的宗教分歧最终演变成新教改革，路德、茨温利和加尔文等人物推翻了曾经普世的教会，使欧洲基督教永久性地分裂。

Centuries of religious descent spilled over into the Protestant Reformation as figures like Luther, Zwingli, and Calvin toppled the formerly universal church and splintered European Christianity once and for all.

最终，船只从西欧启航驶向世界各地，将加尔各答与里斯本、塞维利亚与古巴、伦敦与纽芬兰编织进一张由贸易、移民和暴力构成的网络，这不仅改写了欧洲的历史，也重塑了整个世界的历史进程。

Finally, ships set off from Western Europe bound for destinations around the world, knitting together the world from Calcutta to Lisbon, Seville to Cuba, and London to Newfoundland in a web of trade, migration, and violence that would rewrite not just Europe's history, but that of the entire world.

我们至今仍生活在这些重大变革所塑造的世界中。

We're still living in the world all of these big developments created.

确实如此。

Sure.

自那以后又发生了许多重大事件，包括一场工业革命和两次世界大战。

A lot of stuff has happened since then, including an industrial revolution and a couple of world wars.

但从深远意义上说，我们当今世界的基础正是在1350至1650年这三百年的历史进程中奠定的。

But in meaningful ways, the foundation of our own world was laid in this March stretch from 1350 to 1650.

1500年的世界仍处于中世纪，但现代文明已近在咫尺。

The world in 1500 was still a medieval one, but the modern lay just around the corner.

就个人而言，这段漫长的早期现代史与罗马帝国终结时期，始终是最令我着迷的两个历史阶段。

On a more personal level, this long early modernity and the end of the Roman Empire are the two periods of history that have always fascinated me the most.

你可能会问，为何不讲述从维京时代到十字军东征再到黑死病这中间的八百年历史？

You might ask, why not cover the eight hundred years in the middle from the Vikings to the Crusades to the Black Death?

简而言之，我计划最终会涉及那段历史。

Well, the short answer is, I plan to eventually.

事实上，一旦我们完成罗马衰落的主题，接下来很可能会深入探讨那个时期。

In fact, that's probably going to be the period that we dig into once the fall of Rome has run its course.

这就是历史的魅力之一。

That's one of the nice things about history.

它永远在那里，不会消失。

It's not going anywhere.

我的目标是为你呈现那些毕生研究这两个时期学者们的最新结论与观点。

My goal here is to bring you the most up to date conclusions and viewpoints of people who've spent their whole lives working on the two periods in question.

学术历史固然精彩，但从根本上说，它并非面向普通大众。

Academic history is great, but on a really fundamental level, it's not aimed at the general public.

它的目标读者是那些已经对该领域有深厚基础的人。

It's intended to be read by people who already have a deep grounding in that material.

若不具备这样的背景知识，这些内容几乎难以理解。

If you don't have that background, it's dang near incomprehensible.

在某种程度上，这是必要的。

To some extent, that's necessary.

每个领域的专家都有自己的专业术语，无论是浇筑混凝土、在最高法院辩论还是编写代码。

Specialists in every field have their own technical language, whether you're pouring concrete, arguing before the Supreme Court, or writing code.

这种简略表达让专家们能以必要的细微差别和精确度，在同行间高效沟通。

It's shorthand that allows these specialists to communicate effectively and efficiently with the kind of nuance and precision that's necessary among the initiated.

但另一方面，这种理解材料所需的专业术语和背景知识，也成为了将门外汉挡在外面的屏障。

On the other hand, though, this kind of technical language and background necessary for understanding the material also serves as a way of blocking off that material from the uninitiated, from outsiders.

这就成了真正的问题所在。

This is where it becomes a real problem.

它使得历史学家发现的巨量有趣内容对公众而言难以企及。

It makes the enormous amount of interesting stuff historians have found inaccessible to the general public.

当学院派历史学家对公众的认知水平摇头叹息时（他们经常如此），很大程度上源于他们的著述与人们实际阅读内容之间的鸿沟。

When academic historians shake their heads at the state of public knowledge of an issue, as they regularly do, a lot of that has to do with the gap between what they're writing and what people are actually reading or listening to.

我认为我的工作就是让这些难以理解的材料变得通俗易懂。

I see it as my job to make this inaccessible material accessible.

我想为那些对这些话题感兴趣、但又没有五年时间在研究生院学习这门专业语言或吸收所有必要背景知识的人进行翻译。

I want to translate it for people who are interested in these topics, but who don't have half a decade to spend in graduate school to learn this technical language, or to absorb all the necessary background to understand it.

在《历史浪潮》节目中，我会为你完成这部分工作。

Here on Tides of History, I'll do that part for you.

我会阅读考古学家绘制的五世纪陶器分布分布图，，以及十六世纪商人账本的分析。

I'll read the archaeologists' distribution maps of fifth century pottery and the analyses of a sixteenth century merchant's account books.

我会阅读关于原始罗曼语系出现的语言学理论，以及十七世纪官僚们如何征收和花费税款的令人麻木的记录。

I'll read the linguistic theories on the emergence of proto Romance and the mind numbing records of how seventeenth century bureaucrats collected and spent tax funds.

这方面的内容浩如烟海。

There's a vast amount of stuff out there.

我会找到这些资料，消化吸收它们，并为你提供我对学者们结论的解读。其中有些结论是我原创的，有些则来自我的阅读。

And I'll find it, take it in, absorb it, and give you my interpretation of what scholars have concluded about Some of my conclusions will be original, others will be drawn from what I've read.

无论如何，我都会告诉你我认为历史学家在哪些地方正确或错误，以及为什么我认为这些在今天仍然重要。

Either way, I'll tell you where and how I think historians have it right or wrong, and I'll tell you why I think it matters today.

1620年，一艘名为五月花号的破旧商船横渡大西洋起航。

In the 1620, a battered merchant ship called the Mayflower set sail across the Atlantic.

船上载着102名男女老少，他们孤注一掷地前往新大陆重启人生。

It carried 102 men, women, and children, risking it all to start again in the new world.

大家好，我是《美国历史讲述者》的主持人林赛·格雷厄姆。

Hi, I'm Lindsey Graham, the host of American History Tellers.

每周我们都将带您重温塑造美国的关键时刻。

Every week, we take you through the moments that shaped America.

在本季最新内容中，我们将探索朝圣者不为人知的故事——这段历史远非第一个感恩节的熟悉传说所能概括。

And in our latest season, we explore the untold story of the Pilgrims, one that goes far beyond the familiar tale of the first Thanksgiving.

登陆科德角后，朝圣者与万帕诺亚格人缔结了意想不到的联盟，原住民帮助他们熬过了记忆中最严酷的寒冬，由此奠定了一个强大国家神话的根基。

After landing at Cape Cod, the Pilgrims forged an unlikely alliance with the Wampanoag people who helped the Pilgrims survive the most brutal winter they'd ever known, laying the foundation for a powerful national myth.

但这个故事的背后还隐藏着另一面——充斥着冲突、背叛，以及对那些曾帮助朝圣者生存的原住民的残酷暴力。

But behind that story lies another, one of conflict, betrayal, and brutal violence against the very people who helped the Pilgrim survive.

请在Wondery应用或您常用的播客平台订阅《美国历史讲述者》。

Follow American history tellers on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcasts.

现在登录Wondery Plus即可提前无广告畅听《美国历史讲述者·五月花号》全季内容。

You can binge all episodes of American history tellers the Mayflower early and ad free right now on Wondery Plus.

短短几年间，Ozempic从一种糖尿病药物演变成了全球现象。

In just a few years, Ozempic has gone from a diabetes drug to a global phenomenon.

但在神奇疗效的宣传背后，另一场较量正在激烈展开。

But behind the miracle claims, another battle is raging.

需求正在爆炸式增长。

Demand is exploding.

供应已无法跟上。

Supply can't keep up.

当制药商诺和诺德急于增产时，其竞争对手礼来公司正全力争夺王座。

And as drugmaker Novo Nordisk scrambles to produce more, its rival Eli Lilly is racing to take the crown.

与此同时，一个更黑暗的市场正在形成。

Meanwhile, a darker market is emerging.

shady的在线卖家正在提供廉价无监管的仿制品。

Shady online sellers are offering cheap unregulated knockoffs.

如今数百万人正在注射未经FDA监管的神秘药瓶。

Now millions are injecting mystery vials with no FDA oversight.

我是大卫·布朗，《商业战争》的主持人。

I'm David Brown, host of Business Wars.

在本季最新内容中，我们将深入探讨奥赛麦的竞赛，以及大型制药巨头之间数十亿美元的对决。

In our latest season, we're diving into the race to Ozempic and the billion dollar showdown between big pharma's biggest players.

他们能否在问题产品毁掉一切之前，解决供应缺口？

Can they close the supply gap before one bad vial destroys everything?

请确保在Wondery应用或您获取播客的任何平台关注《商业战争》。

Make sure to follow Business Wars on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcasts.

您现在就可以在Wondery Plus上提前观看《商业战争》所有剧集，无广告打扰。

You can binge all episodes of Business Wars early and ad free right now on Wondery Plus.

那么我们在这里要研究什么样的历史？

So what kind of history are we doing here?

回答这个问题至关重要，因为它指导我们选择主题和需要重点关注的证据。

Answering that question is essential because it guides our choice of topics and the evidence we choose to emphasize.

历史有许多不同的种类和研究方法。

There are many different kinds of history and a wide variety of approaches to it.

让我们以政治为例。

Let's take politics as an example.

如果我们想讨论1350年至1500年中世纪晚期的政治生活，我们可能会关注官僚体系的兴起以及那些将导致现代主权国家形成的制度的出现。

If we wanted to talk about the political life of the late Middle Ages from, say, 1350 to 1500, we might focus on the rise of bureaucracy and the emergence of institutions that would lead to the modern sovereign state as we understand it.

或者我们可以谈谈欧洲王国的贵族们，他们如何抵制国家的扩张，因为这践踏了他们世袭的特权和权力。

Or we could talk about the great nobles of Europe's kingdoms, how they resisted the expansion of the state because it trampled on their hereditary privileges and powers.

另一方面，我们也可以强调这些大贵族如何从国家中受益并鼓励其发展。

Or, on the other hand, we could emphasize how those great nobles benefited from the state and encouraged its development.

我们可能选择淡化所有这些关于主权国家崛起的叙述，转而关注其他形式的政治组织，如城邦（想想威尼斯或米兰）以及城镇联盟，比如北德和波罗的海的汉萨同盟。

We might choose to downplay all of those narratives about the rise of the sovereign state and instead focus on alternative forms of political organization like city states think Venice or Milan and leagues of towns like the Hansa of Northern Germany and the Baltic.

这些都只是从一个时期政治生活的一个方面中得出的可行故事和重点。

These are all viable stories and emphases to draw from just one aspect of political life in just one period.

此外，它们基本上都是自上而下的观察方式。

Moreover, they're all basically top down ways of looking at it.

或者，我们可以讨论国家的崛起及其发动战争的欲望如何导致对平民征税需求的增加，以及他们如何抵抗或默许这些要求。

Alternatively, we might talk about how the rise of state and the state's desire to make war led to increased demands for taxation on common people, and how they resisted or acquiesced to those demands.

地方性战争与暴力对农民阶层的压力会是另一个潜在焦点。

The pressures of endemic war and violence on the peasantry would be another potential focus.

或者我们可以避开所有这些，转而讨论城市居民如何参与或不参与政治生活。

Or we might sidestep all of that to talk about how city dwellers participated or didn't in political life.

关键在于这一点。

The point is this.

历史学家总是在做出选择。

Historians are always making choices.

不存在单一的历史，不存在单一的过去真相。

There is no one history, one truth of the past.

现在我认为存在客观事实。

Now I think there are objective facts.

甚至在这方面，仍有一些持后现代主义倾向的历史学家会不同意我的观点。

And even here, there are still some historians of a postmodernist bent who would disagree with me.

但对这些事实的诠释，我们如何将它们编织成叙事、主题、议题和时代划分，都是可以讨论的。

But the interpretation of those facts, how we put them together into narratives, topics, themes, and periods is all up for debate.

这当然不意味着所有解释都同样有效，但我们必须意识到处理相同材料存在多种方法。

That doesn't mean all of those interpretations are equally valid, of course, but we have to be aware that there are different ways of approaching the same material.

所有这些都暂且不论，我们首先必须决定要讨论什么内容。

All of that leaves aside that we have to make choices about what we're going to talk about in the first place.

我们认为什么才是真正重要的？

What do we think really matters?

什么是重要的？为什么重要？

What's important and why?

我要开诚布公地告诉你们。

I'm gonna put my cards on the table here and be upfront with you all.

我对宏大历史、宏大叙事感兴趣，关注为什么重要事件会发生以及它们如何随时间发展。

I'm interested in big history, in big narratives, in the broad sweep of why important things happen and how they develop over time.

这并不意味着我不关心个体或微观层面的分析。

This doesn't mean that I don't care about individuals or about the micro level of analysis.

本节目中我们将充分探讨这两个层面。

We'll have plenty of room for both on this show.

但正是这些宏大、深刻、长期的问题与进程激发了我的兴趣。

But those big, deep, long term questions and processes are what drive my interest.

我想知道为何主权国家在中世纪晚期出现，为何罗马帝国的政治体系崩溃，为何城市随罗马国家一同衰败，以及为何十六世纪见证了第一次全球化——仅举几例。

I want to know why sovereign states emerged in the late Middle Ages, why the Roman Empire's political system crumbled, why cities deteriorated along with the Roman state, and why the sixteenth century saw the first globalization, to name just a few things.

政治、战争、经济、社会变革、人口结构、文化与性别。

Politics, war, the economy, social change, demographics, culture, and gender.

我所热衷的正是这种波澜壮阔的历史图景。

The grand sweep of history is what I'm interested in.

现在，许多学院派历史学家会说我这种对大叙事的关注已经过时了。

Now, lot of academic historians would call my emphasis on these kinds of big narratives old fashioned.

他们会说这种视角过于结构化和制度化，过度关注宏观事物而可能掩盖反面证据。

They'd say it's too structural and institutional, that it's too interested in large scale things that risk burying contrary evidence.

我坦然接受这些批评，并且要告诉你们原因。

I'm fine with all of those criticisms, and I'll tell you why.

因为我认为，学院派历史学家反而忘记了历史应当具备实用性这一根本。

Because in turn, I think academic historians have lost sight of the fact that history should be useful.

这就是我在这里试图展现的宏大图景。

So that's the big picture of what I'm trying to do here.

但在整个系列中，我仍会讲述关于亲历这些巨大社会政治变革会是怎样的故事。

But throughout this series, I'm still going to be telling stories about what it would have been like to have lived through these massive social and political changes.

这些人曾在历史洪流中劳作生息、爱恨交织、生死沉浮。

These were people who worked and had children, loved and hated, lived and died in the shifting currents of history.

其中有农民、码头工人、水手、士兵、牧师和贵族。

There were farmers, dock workers, sailors, soldiers, priests, and aristocrats.

如果我们想理解这些历史时期，就必须在宏观视角之外，尝试从他们的立场去理解。

If we wanna make sense of these periods of history, we have to try to understand things from their perspective in addition to the more abstract, big picture view.

在《罗马衰亡》中，我主要通过虚构人物来实现这一点。

For Fall of Rome, I've mostly done this by creating hypothetical individuals.

比如名叫沃尔菲拉的哥特人，他从边境外迁入罗马领土，最终在阿基坦的新西哥特王国终老。

A Goth named Volfila, who migrated from beyond the frontier into Roman territory before ending his life in the new Visigothic kingdom of Aquite.

还有陶匠安东尼娅，她生活在罗马不列颠的小市镇，目睹周遭社会分崩离析。

A potter named Antonia, who lived in a small market town in Roman Britain as society fell apart around her.

一个罗马人与法兰克人混居的家庭，他们随着法兰克王国在北高卢的崛起而兴盛。

A mixed family of Romans and Franks who rose along with the Frankish kingdom in Northern Gaul.

还有一位名叫伊塔卢斯的水手，生活在迦太基，在一艘环地中海航行的商船上工作。

And a sailor living in Carthage named Ithalus who worked on a merchant ship that traveled around the Mediterranean.

为什么是虚构人物而非真实人物？

Why hypothetical individuals and not real ones?

因为在罗马帝国晚期，我们掌握的资料不足以重构社会顶层以外任何人的生活。

Well, for the late Roman Empire, we just don't have enough information to reconstruct the life of anybody outside the highest levels of society.

即使对史料最丰富的精英阶层而言，要重构完整传记都绝无可能，更遑论自传了。

Even for the best documented members of the elite, reconstructing anything like a comprehensive biography, let alone an autobiography, is out of the question.

因此我们必须发挥想象力，将考古与文献中的各类证据拼凑起来，填补空白以创造人物来讲述这段历史。

So we have to use our imaginations to put together various kinds of evidence from archaeology and texts and then fill in the gaps to create people to help us tell that story.

偶尔我们会讨论真实人物，比如那位患有癫痫的可怜人，他在隆冬时节步行80英里到罗马向教皇大格里高利申诉。

On occasion, we will be able to discuss real people, like the poor guy suffering from epilepsy who walked 80 miles to Rome in the middle of winter to plead his case to pope Gregory the Great.

但大多数时候，这些平民百姓已永远湮没在历史长河中。

Mostly, though, those common people are lost to us.

对于中世纪晚期和近代早期，也就是我们在《现代世界的崛起》中探讨的时期，我们有更多证据来讨论真实的生活经历。

For the late medieval and early modern periods, what we're covering in rise of the modern world, we have so much more evidence to talk about real lived experience.

我们有税收记录和法律纠纷、收成记录和海关登记、家庭账目以及社会上层以外人士写的信件。

We have tax records and legal disputes, harvest yields and customs registers, household accounts and letters written by people outside the very top ranks of society.

有时，这些资料足以让我们将真实人物嵌入故事中。

Sometimes, these will be enough for us to embed real individuals in our story.

其他时候，我们仍会借助虚构人物，但这将是出于选择而非必要。

Other times, we'll still turn to hypothetical characters, but it'll be out of choice rather than necessity.

这就是你们可以从《历史浪潮》中期待的内容。

So this is what you can expect from Tides of History.

除了这些故事，我还会带来与知识渊博人士的访谈。

In addition to those stories, I'll be bringing you interviews with knowledgeable people.

我们将与学院派历史学家、畅销书作家和记者进行对话。

We'll talk to academic historians, popular authors, and journalists.

我们将深入探讨之前涉及的话题，同时也会开辟一些新领域。

We'll dig deeper into issues that we've covered before and broke some new ones as well.

敬请期待本系列正式的第一集。

Stay tuned for the first episode of the series proper.

我将探讨1350年至1650年间主权国家的崛起。

I'll look at the rise of the sovereign state between 1350 and 1650.

在《现代世界的崛起》专题中，我们将首先涵盖这一时期的主要议题：国家、战争、资本主义、印刷术、文艺复兴、第一次全球化以及宗教改革。

In the rise of the modern world docket, we'll be covering the major topics of the period first, the state, war, capitalism, the printing press, the Renaissance, the first globalization, and the Reformation.

之后，我们将按大致时间顺序深入探讨更具体的主题，从黑死病开始，到三十年战争和英国内战结束。

After that, we'll dig into more specific topics in broadly chronological order, starting with the Black Death and ending with the Thirty Years' War and the English Civil War.

关于罗马帝国的衰亡，我们将重新探讨西部帝国分崩离析时东部帝国的确切状况。

For Fall of Rome, we're gonna get back on the horse with what exactly was happening in the Eastern Empire while the West was falling apart.

结构上，我们会先做两期同主题节目然后切换，同时每月至少安排一期访谈节目。

Structurally, we'll do two episodes of each and then switch, with at least one interview episode every month as well.

非常感谢您收听这期开场节目，希望您能继续关注。

Thank you so much for joining me for this introductory episode, and I hope you stick around.

我们后续将有大量精彩内容呈现。

We've got a ton of exciting stuff coming up.

如果你有空闲时间，能留下评分和评论我将不胜感激。

If you have a spare moment, I'd appreciate it if you left a rating and review.

如果还没订阅的话，别忘了在Apple Podcasts、Stitcher、NPR One或Wondery应用上订阅。

And if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe on the Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, NPR One, or the Wondery app.

你可以在Twitter上关注@patrick_underscore_Wyman，或在Facebook上关注patrick wyman m m a。

You can follow me on Twitter at patrick underscore Wyman or on Facebook at patrick wyman m m a.

如果你有任何问题、意见或建议，或者想聊聊罗马帝国衰亡或现代世界崛起的话题，随时可以给我留言。

And if you have questions, comments, or concerns, or if you just wanna chat about the fall of the Roman Empire or the rise of the modern world, you can always drop me a line.

如果你想提供更多帮助，参与wondery.com/survey的问卷调查我会非常感激。

If you wanna help out even a bit more, I'd really appreciate it if you took the survey at wondery.com/survey.

《历史潮汐》由我帕特里克·怀曼撰写并讲述。

Tides of History is written and narrated by me, Patrick Wyman.

音频工程由赫苏斯·穆里略负责。

It's engineered by Jesus Murillo.

音效设计由杰夫·施密特完成。

The audio design is by Jeff Schmidt.

执行制片人是Wondery的Jeffrey Glaser和Hernan Lopez。

The executive producers are Jeffrey Glaser and Hernan Lopez for Wondery.

下次再见。

Until next time.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

这里是Wondery制作的《历史潮汐》。

From Wondery, this has been Tides of History.

如果您喜欢《历史潮汐》，现在加入Wondery Plus或在Apple Podcasts订阅即可提前无广告收听。

If you like Tides of History, you can listen early and ad free right now by joining Wondery Plus in the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts.

Prime会员可在Amazon Music上无广告收听。

Prime members can listen ad free on Amazon Music.

离开前，请访问wondery.com/survey填写简短问卷告诉我们您的想法。

Before you go, tell us about yourself by filling out a short survey at wondery.com/survey.