凯西·伍德没有错（来源：凯西·伍德）

大家好，欢迎收听TLDR播客，这是一档关于金钱文化、八卦和商业的节目。本周话题：如果薛定谔的猫变成狗狗币会怎样？我是德文·弗里德曼。与我共同主持的是马特·卡拉兹，他是WellSimple的产品总监，本周他感冒了。对吧？

Hello, and welcome to the TLDR podcast, the show about the culture, gossip, and business of money. And this week, what if Schrodinger's cat was a dog coin? My name is Devin Friedman. I am here with my cohost, Matt Caraz, is the director of product for WellSimple and someone who this week has a cold. Is that right?

是啊。你现在感觉有多糟糕？是听起来状态很差，还是感觉...

Yeah. What's the level of garbage that you feel right now? Is it just like mostly you sound bad, or do you feel like

糟透了？不，不。我感觉简直糟透了。但和你聊天让我感觉好些了。

garbage? No. No. I feel like absolute garbage. But hanging out with you is making me feel better.

所以

So

太好了。凯拉·斯坎伦，经济学教育领域的重要人物，活跃在彭博新闻、TikTok等多个平台，还有你那本即将出版的书——听说这周刚完成有声书录制？进展如何？

Great. Kyla Scanlon, a important figure in the world of economics education across many platforms, whether it be Bloomberg News, TikTok, or your forthcoming book, which I understand you did the audio recording for this week. How did it go?

挺顺利的。虽然念错了很多词。没错，录音棚里发生了自我消亡的体验。

It went well. Yeah. I mispronounced a lot of words. And, yeah, it was, you know, ego death happened in that studio.

自我消亡对每个人都很重要。通常这需要死藤水才能实现。但如果你把'重要'念成'重摇'，我立刻取关。莎拉·里格尔，TLDR通讯的商业与市场记者，一如既往从卡尔加里连线，今天看起来阳光灿烂，你都拉上了遮阳帘。

Well, ego death is important for all of us. Usually, it happens with Ayahuasca. But if you start saying important instead of important, I'm unsubscribing. Sarah Rieger, the business and markets correspondent for the TLDR newsletter coming to us as always from Calgary, and it looks like it might be a super sunny day. You have your sunshade drawn.

这是真的吗？

Is that true?

是啊。外面难得看起来美极了。

Yeah. It looks gorgeous outside for once.

人们最初是为经济与市场分析而来，结果却为了实时（延迟一周）的卡尔加里天气预报留了下来。

People come for the economics and markets analysis, but they stay for the real time one week late weather in Calgary.

这确实很有吸引力。

It's very compelling.

本周我们为您准备了精彩节目。稍后可能会迎来可能是全球最著名的基金经理凯茜·伍德。与此同时，我们将探讨当下金融界最引人入胜的话题。先从你开始吧，凯拉。本周有哪些戴着可爱小帽子、赚钱或亏钱的人让你觉得有趣？

We have a fantastic show for you this week. We have Cathie Wood, the world's most famous fund manager, probably, possibly, coming up later. And in the meantime, we are going to talk about the question that gets at the most interesting topics in the world of money right now. Let's start with you, Kyla. Who is making and losing money this week that's interesting to you and also wears a cute little hat?

没错。加密货币最近动静很大，过去几周又出现了惊人涨幅。比特币自2024年初以来上涨超50%，首次突破9万美元大关，让一些人暴富。其实还有个'薛定谔的币'概念，如果大家感兴趣我稍后可以展开讲讲。

Yeah. So crypto is doing a lot. Again, it's gone up an extraordinary amount over the past few weeks. So Bitcoin has gained more than 50% since the start of 2024 and is now trading above $90,000 for the first time ever, making some people very rich. But there's actually this concept of Schrodinger's coin that I can talk about later on if anyone cares.

不过我认为，我们首先该讨论加密货币近期暴涨背后的原因。

But I think first, we should talk about the reasons behind crypto's recent surge.

我对薛定谔的硬币最感兴趣，不过我想我得等着看那是什么意思。是的，我一直在关注关于加密货币激增的所有讨论。是什么原因让我们从所谓的加密寒冬进入了这个赚钱的时刻？

I am most interested in Schrodinger's coin, but I guess I will have to wait to find out what that means. So, yeah, I've been seeing all the chatter about the surge in crypto. What's the reason that we've emerged from so called crypto winter into this money making moment?

是的。我认为主要有四个原因。第一个原因是最近美国批准了一批比特币ETF。这意味着你可以通过购买基金来接触比特币，而无需实际持有任何比特币。比特币是加密行业其余部分背后的动力。

Yeah. I mean, I think there's four main reasons. So the first reason is that a bunch of Bitcoin ETFs were recently approved in The United States. And so that means that you can buy into a fund and get exposure to Bitcoin without actually owning any Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is the powerhouse behind the rest of the crypto industry.

所以一旦比特币开始上涨，其他一切也会随之上涨。特别是这些基于叙事的资产，是人们可以围绕其编造故事的愚蠢东西，比如狗狗币和柴犬币。加密货币确实会经历周期。第二个原因是它是周期性的。我认为加密货币最近激增的第三个原因是。

So once Bitcoin starts going up, everything else starts going up as well. Specifically, these narrative based assets, are dumb things that people can build stories around, like a Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. And then crypto does go through cycles. So the second reason is it's cyclical. And I think the third reason behind crypto's recent surge.

特别是对于比特币，每个人都在试图弄清楚它是一种货币还是一种可投资资产。最初，每个人都认为它会用于支付。对吧？那是中本聪最初的愿景。但它不像货币那样是一种交易工具。

For Bitcoin specifically, everyone was trying to figure out if it was a currency or an investable asset. So at first, everyone thought that it would be used for payments. Right? That that was Satoshi's original vision. But it's not a transactional tool like a currency.

它是一种投资工具。它是数字黄金。它不是加拿大元。然后这是加密货币可能上涨的第四个原因，即比特币减半。

It's an investment tool. It's digital gold. It's not the Canadian dollar. And then this is the fourth reason why crypto has potentially gone up is the Bitcoin halvening.

等等。什么？它叫减半，就像把它分成两半？为什么这么叫？

Wait. What's it? It's called halvening, like breaking it in half? Why is it called that?

是的。是的。之所以这么叫，是因为这意味着支付给比特币矿工的奖励减半。所以它越来越接近总共可以存在的21,000,000枚比特币的总产量。因此，我们越接近这个存在的比特币数量，矿工得到的报酬就越少。

Yeah. Yeah. The reason it's called that is because it means that the rewards paid to Bitcoin miners are cut in half. So it's just getting closer and closer to the total production of the 21,000,000 Bitcoins that can be in existence. So the closer that we get to that number of Bitcoins that are in existence, the less that miners are paid

因为奖励越小。

for The smaller the reward.

没错。而且具体时间不确定，但大约每四年发生一次。历史上这曾引发过牛市，但本轮周期似乎主要由ETF和加密货币不再只是加密货币这一趋势驱动。是的。

Yeah. Exactly. And it's uncertain exactly when that will be, but that occurs roughly every four years. And historically, that's created bull runs in the past, but it really seems that this cycle is driven by ETFs and crypto becoming not crypto. Yeah.

马修，金融业对这种局面成因的主流看法是什么？

Matthew, what's the conventional wisdom in the finance industry about how this is all happening?

我认为目前读到的主要理论是，比特币上涨源于机构需求旺盛。说来讽刺，这是首个不是因为要颠覆世界，而是因为变得更像传统金融才上涨的比特币周期。其他所谓'山寨币'也在跟涨，这实在令人费解。

I mean, I think the main thing that I've read and the the main theory that I've heard is that Bitcoin's been rising because there's just a lot of institutional demand for it. And, you know, that's I've I've always found that sort of ironic. You know, the only Bitcoin cycle where it's rising not because it's gonna upend the world, but because it's become more like the rest of traditional finance. The fact that other crypto, quote, unquote, shitcoins have been rallying as well, I I think is, like, just, like, mostly confusing.

我有个朋友，据说他朋友通过交易'戴帽狗币'赚了80万美元。他说自己的市场判断标准是：当同事说要买'戴帽狗币'时，说明市场有泡沫；但当连Facebook都不会用的叔叔问我怎么买'戴帽狗币'时，就是该抛售的时候了。

My friend this friend of mine who supposedly his friend made $800,000 trading dog with hat. And he said, here's how I judge the market. When my colleague says, I'm getting into dog with hat, you know that there's froth. But when my uncle who doesn't know how to use Facebook asks me how I buy dog with hat, that's when I sell.

是啊，真是个奇妙的行业。

Yeah. It's a great industry.

凯拉，在结束这个环节前，你必须给我们解释下什么是'薛定谔的币'。

Kyla, don't you can't leave this segment without telling us what Schrodinger's coin is.

哦，是的。我是说，这是我之前写过的东西，这个概念是说加密货币里很多财富都是账面财富。就像你朋友因为‘戴帽子的狗’赚了80万美元，一旦你想套现利润，其他人也这么做，那些资产就开始暴跌。所以这有点像薛定谔的币——这笔钱是真的吗？这些财富是真实的吗？

Oh, yeah. Oh, so, I mean, it's just something I've written about before, and it's kind of this idea that a lot of what happens in crypto is paper wealth. Like, your friend making $800,000 on dog with hat, as soon as you get, like, kinda goes to pull out those profits and everybody else does the same, that's when those assets start to tank. And so it's sort of Schrodinger's coin where it's like, is the money real? Like, is the wealth real?

对。

Yeah.

嗯哼。没错。你可以说所有未实现收益的投资都隐含这种特性，但在加密货币里尤其极端，真的是要么全有要么全无。

Mhmm. Right. Which is like you you could argue that that's implicit in all investments that you haven't realized the gains of yet, but it's just so extraordinary in crypto that it really is everything or nothing.

我对加密货币有个好奇的问题。马修，不知道你是否了解——之前有人讨论加密货币的财富效应比股票糟糕得多。比如人们获得这些暴利后进行的疯狂消费。这真的会对经济产生任何影响吗？

One question I'm curious about with crypto. I don't know if you have a sense of this, Matthew, but there was some talk about just how the wealth effect with crypto is, like, so much worse than stocks. Like, know, the amount of just, like, whatever spending people do once they make these wild gains. Is there actually going to be any economic impact from this?

我觉得这类现象很有意思。加密货币的财富增长比其他类型的财富增长更能刺激消费。虽然我不认为这足以改变整体经济轨迹或广泛影响物价。但如果你想买劳力士或迈阿密公寓，可能会更难了。你们肯定看过那个视频吧？Nick.ETH那个迈阿密家伙，他在船上拍视频让所有质疑者‘下地狱’。

I mean, I find this kind of thing pretty fascinating. Crypto wealth gains lead to bigger increases in spending than other types of wealth gains. And I don't I don't I doubt that this is enough to, like, lead to a big, you know, change in the trajectory for the overall economy or, like, prices more broadly. But, you know, if you're looking for a Rolex or a Miami apartment, you know, it might might be a little tougher for you. I mean, have you been I'm sure you saw the the video, you know, Nick dot Eth, this this guy in Miami who's like basically, he did a video from his boat telling all the haters that you know, and all of his doubters that they should basically go to hell.

对，你说的是那个叫NFT Nick.ETH的人，据说他在加密货币里赚了大钱。

Right. So you're talking about the guy known as NFT Nick dot ETH who supposedly made a bunch of money in crypto.

这种人简直长着一张欠揍的脸。

I mean, talk about people with punchable faces.

他，你知道的，代表着加密货币行业。人们看着那个人，说那就是加密货币过度金融化、赌博的象征，他们没说错。

He's, you know, representing the crypto industry. Like, people are looking at that person, and they're saying that's crypto over financialization, gambling, and they're not wrong.

莎拉，你买过模因币吗？

Sarah, have you ever bought a meme coin?

买过。我最惨痛的加密货币经历要分享的是，多年前我有个比特币存在旧硬盘里，整整一个比特币。当时价格大概是20美元左右，我还得通过Quadriga——那个后来倒闭的加密货币交易所——进行转账。

I have. My big sad crypto story that I would like to share is I had a Bitcoin many years ago on an old hard drive, like a a entire Bitcoin. And I believe I think it was, like, $20 at the time, and I had to send, like, a money transfer to, like, Quadriga, which is a, you know, a a crypto exchange that very much went up in flames.

现在你那枚比特币值多少钱？

What would your Bitcoin be worth right this second?

我...我连查都不想查。

I don't I don't even wanna look it up.

莎拉，查一下嘛。

Sarah, look it up.

好吧，我查查看然后告诉你。

Let's see. K. I'll check and I'll tell you.

在TLDR这里，我们直面残酷的真相。我们从不退缩。

We look at hard truths here at TLDR. We don't flinch.

9万2千美元。

$92,000.

呃。谁需要9万2千美元？

Ugh. Who needs $92,000?

你在嘲笑我的痛苦。

You mock my pain.

马修。对吧？马修正在打点滴，这样他才能继续完成这个环节。马修，现在谁在赚钱又亏钱，你觉得有意思吗？

Matthew. Yeah? Matthew's getting his IV so he can get on and do this segment. Matthew, who's making and losing money right now that's interesting to you?

嗯，我想聊的是F1，或者说一级方程式赛车。这个超级奢华的全球赛车运动联盟正在大赚特赚。这周我想讨论它，是因为萨拉向我推荐了凯特·瓦格纳在《Road and Track》杂志上发表的一篇精彩文章，名为《F1天鹅绒幕后的真相》。

Well, the thing I wanted to talk about was f one or, I guess, Formula One. The super luxe global sports racing league is making a lot of money. And the reason I wanted to talk about it this week was that there was this awesome piece that Sarah actually mentioned to me by Kate Wagner in Road and Track called Behind f one's Velvet Curtain.

我对那个故事着迷极了。

I'm obsessed with that story.

是的。这是长期杂志类型中一篇出色的文章——作家被扔进充斥着巨额金钱的亚文化圈后感叹：天呐，这太扭曲了。

Yeah. It's it's it's one of the great entries in the longtime magazine genre of writer gets dropped into subculture suffused with incredible amounts of money and says, holy crap. This is perverse.

没错。我我不会这么表述，但这确实是篇精彩的文章。我最喜欢的一句话是：'如果想让人变成社会主义者，只需带他们在F1赛道的围场转一小时就行'。德文，你去看过F1比赛吗？

Yeah. I I wouldn't I wouldn't necessarily put it that way, but it was an awesome article. My favorite line was, I think if you wanted to turn someone into a socialist, you could do it in about an hour by taking them for a spin around the paddock of a Formula One race. You know, I don't have have you ever been to an f one race, Devin?

从没去过。我对赛车实在提不起兴趣，不过这只是我个人感受。

I never have. I, like, I can't imagine being interested in ridden race cars, but that's just me.

是啊。我讨厌体育运动，觉得汽车作为实用工具比当玩具更有价值。但全世界的富豪似乎突然集体认定这是场盛大表演。不仅是刚才讨论的加密货币玩家，几乎所有赚到十亿身家的新贵都把F1当成了新爱好。

Yeah. So I hate sports, and I find cars, you know, are more most useful as, like, utilitarian things versus versus toys. But basically, every rich person in the world seems to have decided all at once that this was a great spectacle. And we're not just talking about, like, the crypto bros that we talked about, you know, a couple of minutes ago, but, like, basically, everyone who's made a billion dollars doing something else now has decided that f one is their their new hobby.

那是什么吸引了你？

So what makes you so interested?

为什么这个金钱故事让你感兴趣？我认为有两点：首先，F1是唯一上市的主流体育联盟，股票代码FWONK。上市地位让我们能清晰看到其商业表现。

Like, why is this an interesting money story to you? There's two things that I find interesting about it. Like, one is Formula One is the only major sports league that's publicly traded. Like, you can go out and you can buy its stock under the ticker FWONK. And, you know, the fact that it's publicly traded also means that, like, you can, like, get really good insight into, like, how the business has been doing.

你可以清楚看到近年的增长曲线——目前估值300亿美元，较2017年增长六倍。第三点是它用非常21世纪的方式提升收视率：通过在全球独特地点办赛，配合车主车手们的奢侈时尚代言，完美契合了Instagram时代追捧的精英 cosmopolitan 形象。

And so you can, like, see pretty clearly, like, just how fast it's been growing over the last couple years. You know, right now, the business is valued at 30,000,000,000 USD, up about six x since 2017. And, you know, I think that there's, like, a third piece of this, which is that it's been boosting its viewership in what I would call, like, a very twenty first century way. It's, like, really played into this, like, luxury cosmopolitan image that seems to be so popular on Instagram these days by, like, having this its races in these, like, esoteric places. And, you know, its owners and its drivers, like, play into this luxury image with their, you know, big fashion deals and stuff like that.

所有这些因素结合在一起，让我觉得在社交媒体盛行的21世纪环境下，这项运动能如此成功是合乎情理的。

And so all of this, like, comes together and and it makes me think that it makes sense in the, you know, social media 20 century environment that this is the sport that's doing so well.

本质上这就是体育界的LVMH集团。

It's basically LVMH as a sport.

没错。这个概括更简短精辟。

Yeah. That's a that's a much shorter, pithier synthesis.

不过，我知道你现在对体育特许经营权和联赛的估值特别感兴趣，因为它们表现非常出色。你觉得这是其他联赛共有的现象吗？为什么会这样？

But, you know, I know that you find the valuation of sports franchises and leagues really interesting right now because they're doing so well. Is that is is this, you know, part of that story across other leagues? And why is that the case, do you think?

基本上，每个主要联赛的重要球队价值都在快速上涨。包括冰球、足球、篮球、棒球。主要有三大原因：体育所有权从原本的小众领域变成了主流；电视和互联网扩大了体育团队的受众；还有就是新兴的亿万富豪阶层把球队当作奢侈玩具来购买，这种非经济型买家进一步推高了价格。

Basically, every major team in every major league has seen its value rise rapidly. We're talking hockey, soccer, basketball, baseball. And there's, like, three big reasons. Like, sports ownership, you know, used to be, like, this niche thing and became mainstream. TV and the Internet, like, broadened the reach for sports teams, and the rise of a, like, this billionaire class that wants to buy big luxury toys added, like, a a noneconomic buyer that was you know, how bid up the price further.

我认为这些因素适用于所有体育团队，但尤其适用于F1赛车。

I think all of this applies to all sports teams, but has also really started to apply to f one as as well.

好的。两个观点：一是现在除了体育赛事外，几乎所有直播电视或流媒体内容都衰落了，所以各大平台争相竞标体育赛事转播权自然会推高价格；二是对于亿万富翁来说，拥有球队本身就是件有趣的事。

Okay. So two ideas. One is I would assume that the fact that almost all sort of live television or live streaming of things is pretty much dead except for sports. So I would have to imagine that, you know, it's like you have all these streamers now bidding for any live sporting event that probably increases the price. And then it also is, like, the fact that it's a fun thing to own if you're a billionaire.

这就好比《华盛顿邮报》只是短期内拥有比较有趣，但长期来看，可能拥有匹兹堡钢人队更有意思。

It's like the Washington Post is only fun to own for a little while, but, like, it's probably more fun to own, like, the Pittsburgh Steelers for a long time.

是啊。我完全理解为什么。就像人们想开餐厅的原因一样。你可以带朋友来，虽然我自己并没有餐厅。

Yeah. I mean, I totally understand why. Like, the same reason that people wanna own restaurants. You can bring your friends and, you know, I don't own a restaurant.

没错。我买乒乓球桌就是为了让来我家的人有事可做。如果你真的很有钱，买下蒙特利尔加拿大人队就像买张乒乓球桌那么简单。

But Right. I bought a ping pong table because I wanted to have people have something to do at my house. If you're really rich, buying the Montreal Canadians is like buying a ping pong table.

这也太蠢了。谁能给我解释下NASTAR和F1的区别？F1就是高级版的NASTAR。

Can this is so stupid. Can someone explain to me the difference between NASTAR and f one? F one is fancy NASTAR.

差不多吧。

Basically.

好吧，没有瘦身版的NASTAR。

K. No skinny NASTAR.

土豆，土豆。番茄，番茄。莎拉·里格，轮到你了。

Potato. Potato. Tomato. Tomato. Sarah Rieger, you are up.

目前谁在赚钱谁在亏钱，哪些对你来说有趣且对我们也会有吸引力？

Who is making and losing money right now that's interesting to you and will be interesting to us?

你还记得那家商场里的美体小铺吗？就是那家摆满各种香味浓郁护手霜的店？

So do you remember that mall store, the body shop, like the one with all the very scented hand lotions?

记得。经过时你肯定能注意到，因为整个人都会被香气包围。

Yes. You know when you walked by it because it was like you were engulfed in fragrance.

没错。现在它正申请债权人保护。虽说是为了避免破产，但不代表它亏损严重。实际上是被私募基金收购后遭到资产掏空，现在被迫要关闭加拿大三分之一的门店。

Yeah. Exactly. So it's going into creditor protection. Like, basically, it's taking steps to avoid bankruptcy, but that doesn't mean it was losing a ton of money. Basically, what happened is it got bought up by a private equity firm and kind of looted, so now it's being forced to shut down a third of its stores in Canada.

这很有意思。要知道美体小铺曾几何时可是商场标配，整整一代人的回忆对吧？

This is interesting. I believe, you know, the body shop was, at one point, an incredibly it was a mall staple, really, right, like, a generation of people?

对，甚至可以说是几代人的记忆。它创立于七十年代，我认为其深受喜爱的原因在于——它是和Patagonia齐名的社会责任企业先驱，坚持零残忍原则，倡导各类社会议题，顾客非常认可这种理念。

Yeah. I would say even for, like, a few generations of people. Like, it was founded way back in the seventies, and I think one of the reasons it was so beloved, it was kind of one of the, like, OGs, socially responsible companies alongside, like, Patagonia. You know, it was, like, cruelty free. It advocated for all sorts of, like, social issues and stores, and customers really liked that.

后来发展成庞大连锁。比如在卡尔加里，我敢说包括我在内，所有高中女生都买过他们的杏仁身体乳。

So it became this huge chain. Like, in Calgary, I'm pretty sure every teen girl I went to high school with, like myself included, bought their almond body butter.

嗯，这是卡尔加里唯一能买到杏仁身体黄油的地方。发生什么事了？这是个关于人们意识到我不再想要杏仁身体黄油的故事吗？我现在想要那种奇怪的α羟基酸什么的？

Well, it was the only place to buy almond body butter in Calgary. What happened? Is this a story about people realizing I don't want almond body butter anymore? I want the weird alpha hydroxy acid whatever?

所以，这部分原因确实存在。对吧？显然它不像九十年代或二月份时那么受欢迎或成功了。人们不再为了花钱而逛商场。而且它在欧洲和亚洲的表现尤其糟糕。

So, like, that's part of it. Right? Like, it's obviously not as popular or as successful as it used to be in the nineties or February. Like, people aren't hanging out at the mall to drop cash. And it was doing really especially badly in Europe and Asia.

但在品牌发源地英国，96%的门店实现了收支平衡甚至盈利。在加拿大，疫情后业绩已开始显著回升，原本预计今年底就能实现正向现金流。然而去年底，德国私募股权公司Aurelius以折扣价收购了这个连锁品牌——毕竟它已不复当年辉煌。他们声称要重振品牌，这听起来很合理，对吧？

But in The UK where the store was founded, 96% of its stores broke even or were even profitable. And in Canada, it was really starting to bounce back after the pandemic. It was on track to actually being cash positive by the end of this year. But late last year, a German private equity company called Aurelius bought up the chain at a discount because again, you know, it was worth less than it was kind of in its heyday. And they said they were going to revitalize it, which made sense, right?

作为深受喜爱的零售连锁，它在众多地区仍能产生现金流，因此现代化改造确实可能带来回报。但加拿大法庭文件显示，私募控股后母公司立即从加拿大门店抽走了近4300万加元现金，仅保留支付员工工资的资金，导致无力支付供应商和账单。这个原本经营尚可的加拿大分公司如今负债累累，数百家门店员工面临失业，而Aurelius将成为最终赢家。

Like it's this beloved retail chain, it's still bringing in cash in a ton of locations, so you could kind of see how modernizing it could pay off. And what happened in Canada is that there are actually these court documents that show that immediately after this PE firm took over, the body shop's parent company withdrew nearly 43,000,000 in cash from the Canadian stores, leaving them with, like, just enough to pay workers but no money to pay suppliers or bills. So now this Canadian company that was kind of doing okay is left in debt. Hundreds of fortresses are losing their jobs, and Aurelius is going to come out ahead here.

说说私募股权这部分。它就像那些糟糕的Lifetime电影里杀害病人的护士吗？我们是否只在坏事发生时才会听到私募的消息，还是说其实也有很多他们拯救企业的成功案例？

Talk to me about the private equity part. You know, is private equity just like a the nurse you see at a one of those horrible Lifetime movies where they end up killing all their patients, or you only hear about private equity when something bad happens and there are all these other great stories where they're actually rescuing businesses?

我认为应该从两方面来看。私募公司常声称通过提高效率来创造价值，但关键在于他们所谓的效率往往意味着拆分公司资产。被私募接管的公司通常薪资更低，破产概率高达普通公司的十倍。

I think let's just have present the two cases for it. So private equity firms often say what they're doing when they buy these companies is they are creating value by making them more efficient. But I think the critical take here is that what they mean by efficient is stripping companies for parts. Companies taken over by PE firms often have lower wages. They're actually 10 times more likely to go bankrupt.

我强烈推荐一本名为《掠夺》的著作，它深入剖析了私募股权如何摧毁从玩具反斗城到更危险的养老院连锁等各类企业。

I I'd actually like to recommend there's this really great book called Plunder that digs into what private equity firms have done to kind of destroy a bunch of companies from Toys R Us to, you know, more dangerous situations where they've taken over stuff like nursing home chains.

所以他们就是那些杀害病人的护士。

So they're literally the nurses that kill their patients.

没错。当你这么说的时候，我就想，哦，这确实非常相关。而且看起来这里发生的事情确实就是那样。

Yeah. When you said that, I was like, oh, that is actually super relevant. And it it does really seem like that's what happened here.

凯拉，你对私募股权有什么看法？

Kyla, do you have a take on private equity?

这是那种我认为它们在一定程度上必须存在的东西。但我确实觉得当人们称它们为秃鹫时，可能很准确，它们就像是在啄食这些公司的内脏。然后当这些公司像在路边挣扎，明显需要某种医疗救助时，它们就会说，嗯哼。抱歉。

It's one of those things that I think they kind of have to exist to a certain extent. But I do think that when people call them vultures, it's probably accurate, they kind of pick at the innards of these companies. And then when the companies are, like, flailing on the side of the road clearly in need of some sort of medical attention, they're like, Mhmm. Sorry.

我相信秃鹫是任何良好生态系统的一部分，但当你想叫救护车时，来的却是秃鹫，这就不太好了。马修，你有什么反驳的观点吗？

I'm sure vultures are part of any good ecosystem, but not great when you wanna call an ambulance and a vulture shows up. Matthew, do you have a counterpoint argument?

我可能……我可能自己也需要一辆那种小便救护车。我马上回来。

I might I might need to get one of those pee ambulances myself. I'll be back.

好的。本周，我们不再进行常规的白板环节，而是有一位特别嘉宾，我们一直想和她聊聊。凯西·伍德，欢迎来到TLDR播客。非常感谢你的到来。

Okay. This week, instead of our normal whiteboard segment, we have a special guest, someone we've wanted to talk to for a long time. Kathy Wood, welcome to the TLDR Podcast. Thank you so much for being here.

哦，德文，能来到这里我真是太高兴了。感谢你的邀请。

Oh, I'm so happy to be here, Devin. Thank you for inviting me.

我想我们所有人都最想知道的问题是——你真的是全世界最著名的基金经理吗？

I think the first question that we all wanna know the answer to is, are you, in fact, the most famous fund manager in the world?

天哪，我不这么认为。我可能算是争议最大的之一吧。

Oh my goodness. I I don't think so. I mean, I might be maybe one of the most controversial.

但我要说你就是最著名的基金经理，因为就我个人而言，如果要我想象一个基金经理的形象，我只能想到你的脸。所以你必须接受这个事实。对于还不认识她的观众，凯茜·伍德确实是全球最著名（或者说最声名狼藉，取决于你的看法）的基金经理之一。根据彭博数据，她管理着约160亿美元的资产，旗下拥有多支基金。

Well, I'm gonna say you're the most famous fund manager just because, personally, if you ask me to think of the face of a fund manager, yours is the only one I can come up with. So you're just gonna have to accept that. For those of you who don't know her, Cathie Wood is in fact one of the most famous fund managers in the world or infamous depending on how you see her. She manages, according to Bloomberg, around $16,000,000,000 in assets. She has a bunch of funds.

规模最大的是她的旗舰ETF——ARK创新ETF。你可以把它看作追踪科技乐观情绪的基金，通常持有30至50支股票，包括特斯拉、Roku和Coinbase等公司。ARK ETF的故事是：在疫情爆发前它一直默默无闻，之后便一飞冲天。到2021年，该基金涨幅高达145%，让伍德成为了家喻户晓的名字。

The biggest is her flagship ETF, which is called the ARK Innovation ETF. You can think of it as a fund that kind of tracks tech optimism. It usually holds between thirty and fifty stocks in companies like Tesla and Roku and Coinbase. So the story of the ARK ETF is that for a long time, it sort of hummed along in relative obscurity until the pandemic hit, and then it sort of skyrocketed. By 2021, the ARK fund had shot up by a 145, and it sort of made Wood a household name.

然后它暴跌了。2022年市值缩水67%。如果算平均值，过去五年收益率仅约2%。但伍德仍坚持她的投资选择是正确的，未来将属于她投资的公司。所以我们有几个问题要问。

And then it tanked. It lost 67% of its value in 2022. And if you average it out, it's returned only about 2% over the past five years. But Wood still maintains that her calls are right and the future will belong to companies that she invests in. So we had a few questions.

我和联合主持人马特·卡拉兹通过Zoom连线佛罗里达州的她，想问问为何她仍认为自己比所有人都正确。好的凯茜，你的基金在几个方面都与当前市场主流背道而驰，最突出的是你坚持选股——而传统观点认为不该选股，人们并不擅长这个。

My cohost, Matt Caraz, and I got her on a Zoom from Florida so we could ask her why she still thinks she's more right than everyone else. Okay, Kathy. So your funds kind of go against the grain of what people are doing in markets right now in a few different ways. But one of the biggest is that you are picking stocks, and conventional wisdom holds that you're not supposed to pick stocks. People aren't very good at it.

追踪标普500等指数的被动投资更优。那么，你为何认为自己的观点正确而传统智慧有误？

Passive investing that tracks indexes like the S and P 500 is better. So why do you think you are right about this and the conventional wisdom is wrong?

七十年代末我在资本集团入行时，投资就是这样的。那是计算机时代之前，量化研究尚未兴起，没有对指数无休止的细分切割。那时投资者会对宏观经济持有观点，对创新和世界未来变化持有观点，并据此投资。他们对任何基准指数都保持中立态度。

When I started at Capital Group in the late seventies, that's what investing was. It was before computers. It was before real quantitative research, slicing and dicing indexes to death. It was when investors took a point of view about the macro economy and they took a point of view about innovation and how the world was going to change in the future and they invested. And they didn't they were agnostic to any benchmark.

但2000年科技电信泡沫破裂后，我们看到现象或者说钟摆向被动投资倾斜——只是复制标普500或纳斯达克等指数，尽可能贴近它。否则就被认为承担过高风险。但正因为宽基基准成为衡量风险的标准，许多人认为我们的投资组合波动剧烈，这种波动性源于创新本身极具争议性。

But after the tech and telecom bust in 08/00/2009, we saw a phenomenon or a pendulum swing towards passive investing. Just copying an index like the S and P five hundred or the Nasdaq, and, stay as close to it as possible. Otherwise, you're taking too much risk. But if anything, because of the move towards broad based benchmarks as the bogey and the determinant of whether or not people are taking risk, many people consider our portfolios to be very volatile, and they are volatile because innovation is very controversial.

那么你们如何筛选投资标的公司？

So how do you pick the companies that you choose to invest in?

是的。关于我们的投资方法，首先——这很少有人在做——我们选取14项不同技术，比如机器人、储能（如电动汽车）、人工智能、区块链等，预估每项技术未来的市场规模。然后测算需求价格弹性：新消费群体何时愿意购买这些新技术？最后才是估值。

Yeah. So in terms of how we approach investing, what we're doing first, and this is what very few are doing, is we're taking 14 different technologies, so robotics, energy storage, so think electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and we're trying to size the market for each technology going out into the future. And then we're trying to gauge the price elasticity of demand. When will this new segment or this additional segment of the population be willing to buy this new technology? And then valuation.

我们假设未来五年估值会下降，将面临逆风。但若判断正确，当这些新技术开始扰乱、取代甚至摧毁旧秩序时，钟摆将向反方向摆动。我们认为未来五到十年内这种情况会剧烈发生。

We assume that our valuations are going to fall over the next five years. We assume that we're gonna have that headwind over the next five years. But if we are right, the pendulum will start shifting in the other direction when these new technologies start disturbing, or disintermediating or even destroying the old world order. And we think that's going to happen quite dramatically during the next five to ten years.

我想主要问题是：虽然对未来有清晰预见对投资很有帮助——这点我深有体会——但投资时还需考虑价格和该未来实现的概率。你们的方法如何兼顾这点？

I guess I mean, my main question is about this approach is, look. Like, if you have a clear view on what the future is gonna be, like, you know, obviously, that's a good thing to to sort of take into account when you're investing. But you also and this is something that I learned obviously the hard way when you when you try to invest. You also have to take into account, you know, price and the probability of that future comes about. How do you do that in your approach?

你们是否只是不惜一切代价投资未来，还是说这背后有更深层次的考量？

Are you just sort of trying to invest in the future at all costs, or does it go deeper than that?

没错。未来总是笔好买卖，还是说你们也得讨价还价？

Right. Is the future always a good deal or do you have to bargain shop?

是的。这是个非常好的问题。我们相信我们捕捉到了市场中真实存在的低效现象，许多观察我们交易方式和进出股票策略的人认为我们更像价值型投资者——精准选择时机，在无人问津时买入股票，或是当其因短期原因陷入低迷但我们认为不会影响长期前景时介入。反方向操作亦然。英伟达，我们在2014年2月以相当于5美元的价格买入。

Yeah. Well, and that's a very good question. We believe we're picking up on real inefficiencies in the market and, you know, many people who observe the way we trade and the way we move in and out of stocks think we are more like a value manager, picking our spots, buying stocks when no one likes them or when for very short term reasons they go through a sinking spell that we don't think is going to derail the longer term stories. And same on the other side. NVIDIA, we bought it at the equivalent of $5 in 02/2014.

如今股价已超800美元，而我们已将其从旗舰投资组合中清仓。这就是个绝佳案例：某只股票一飞冲天时，我们选择抽身，因为现在我们正通过其他公司来表达对人工智能领域的投资观点。

Today, it's over $800, and we've sold it out of our flagship portfolio. So this is a very good example of a a stock that has gone to the moon, and we have pulled away because we now are trying to express our investment call on artificial intelligence through other companies.

所以你的意思是，人们可能会盯着你们对英伟达的操作——早期买入后大幅升值，却在去年左右抛售，为此你们承受了不少质疑。比如'你们错过了后续暴涨行情'。

So so what you're saying is people might look at the trade that you made in NVIDIA and and so and that trade is basically early on, you bought it. You it went up in value by a lot. At some point in the last year or so, you sold your NVIDIA stock, and you have been getting a lot of flack for it. Hey. You missed the ride of the last whatever.

虽然股价疯狂上涨，但你们的回应是：如果英伟达成功，那么我们押注的其他公司也会成功，我们将从中获益。

Like, the stock's gone crazy. But your your answer to that is, well, if NVIDIA is working, then that must mean these other companies that we've bet on will also work, and so we will we'll take advantage of that.

我们正布局人工智能的下游受益者。

We're in the next beneficiaries of artificial intelligence.

但当我听你谈论AI时，我脑海中浮现的一个问题是，你在投资组合中对AI的押注有多大？比如我浏览了前十大持仓，它们看起来都截然不同。加密货币平台Coinbase、电动汽车制造商特斯拉、支付公司Block、流媒体公司Roku、博彩公司DraftKings。AI是你投资组合的主题吗？还是说这些公司入选各有原因？

But when I hear you talk about AI, one question that comes to my mind is, like, how big of a bet on AI do you have in your portfolio? Like, I look down the top 10 positions, and they all seem very different to me. Like Coinbase, the crypto platform, Tesla, the EV manufacturer, Block, the payments company, Roku, the streaming company, DraftKings, the gambling company. You know, is is AI, like, the theme of your portfolio, or are there a lot of different companies that you have in there for different reasons?

我们几乎从AI视角审视每家公司，因为AI是当今所有创新领域最大的催化剂。我们正在询问各公司的AI战略。

We're viewing almost every company through an AI lens because AI is the biggest catalyst to all kinds of innovation today. And we are asking companies about their AI strategies.

你如何判断自己是错了，还是只是时机未到？

How do you know when you're wrong and how do you know when you're just not right yet?

没错。你必须提出正确的问题。当下我认为投资者最该问的是：这家公司是否积极利用其专有数据？是否如预期般运用AI？有些公司未能做到，或遭遇激进投资者要求削减成本而非投资未来，这就是明确的卖出信号。

Yes. You have to be asking the right questions. And and today, I think the most important question that any investor can ask is, is this company using its proprietary data aggressively? Is it harnessing AI in the way we thought they would? And there are some companies that are not and or there's an activist investor that's come in and wants to slash costs and not invest in the future, that is a sure sell signal.

当我们给予管理层时间证明——这是我们的数据战略，这是我们为把握AI机遇新增的技术专长——之后就需要看他们的执行力。

So when we give a management time to prove, okay, this is our data strategy. Here's here's the technology expertise we've added to capitalize on this AI opportunity, then we need to see them execute.

再请教一个至关重要的投资问题：你此生买过最愚蠢的东西是什么？

Another crucial and vitally important investing question for you, What is the dumbest thing you've ever bought in your life?

我认为最严重的错误是曾过度信任墨西哥政府关联的管理团队。1994年我坚信政府不会让比索贬值，于是持续买入墨西哥股票。永远不要轻信政府，也不要相信政府周边人士——他们当然不愿贬值，但有时国际市场会迫使你别无选择。

I think one of the worst mistakes I made was I actually got very close to the management teams in Mexico who were very close to the government, And I believed in 1994 that the government would not devalue the peso, and so we kept buying into the Mexican stocks. Don't believe a government, you know, don't don't, and don't believe those surrounding the government because, sure, they don't wanna devalue, but sometimes international markets just force it. There is no choice.

我其实想的是，你有没有过那种经历，比如刚买了辆宾利，结果两周后就后悔得直拍大腿，心想我为啥要买这玩意儿？

I was thinking more like, did you ever like buy a Bentley and then like two like a week later, you're like, oh god, why did I buy a Bentley?

我真的很讨厌购物。我一年只购物两次，就这样。还是让采购员去办的，我根本不想多花时间在这上面。举个例子，当年我养三个孩子时，连买车都是让保姆去的，我几乎完全不在乎。

I'm I really hate shopping. I go shopping two times a year. That's it. With a shopper, and I don't wanna spend any more time than that. For example, when I was raising three children, I had my nanny go buy our cars, and I almost didn't care.

马修，凯西·伍德还能再待一两分钟。你有什么一直想问凯西的问题吗？

Matthew, you have Kathy Wood here for another minute or two. What is one thing you've always wanted to ask, Kathy?

周末市场休市会让你感到失落吗？

Are you sad that markets are closed on the weekends?

加密货币市场可不休市，所以我的瘾头总能得到满足。

Well, the crypto markets are not, so I can I can fill my addiction?

这期节目太精彩了。感谢各位的参与。特别感谢凯西·伍德的到来。凯拉，今天我们都学到了什么？

That was an excellent episode. Thank you to everyone. Thanks, Kathy Wood, for being here. Kyla, what did we learn today?

今天我们了解到加密货币已经彻底革新了——因为现在连狗狗都戴上了帽子。石油化工企业赞助F1赛事能赚个好名声。美体小铺被拆解得七零八落，但未来仍有看涨的理由。

So we learned that crypto has totally revolutionized because now the dog has a hat. Petrochemical companies can get some good press by sponsoring f one. Body Shop has been torn limb to limb, and there are reasons to be bullish on the future. That

今天的节目由Wealthsimple赞助。由我Devin Friedman、Kat Angus、Matt Caraz、Sarah Rieger、Kyla Scanlon与Matilde Urfalino、Annette Heist、Jared Sullivan、Tom Johnson以及Greg Tharp共同制作。事实核查由Brandon Dougherty负责，主题音乐由Andy Huckvale创作，工程由Veronica Rodriguez完成。

is it for today. The show is sponsored by Wealthsimple. It is made by me, Devin Friedman, Kat Angus, Matt Caraz, Sarah Rieger, Kyla Scanlon with Matilde Urfalino, Annette Heist, Jared Sullivan, Tom Johnson, and Greg Tharp. Fact checking by Brandon Dougherty, theme music by Andy Huckvale, and engineering by Veronica Rodriguez.

TLDR播客由Wealthsimple Media Incorporated提供，仅供信息参考。TLDR播客内容不构成投资建议、买卖资产或证券的推荐，也不代表Wealthsimple Financial Corporation或其任何子公司或关联公司的观点。Wealthsimple Media Incorporated不对本内容中引用的任何第三方观点表示认可。更多信息请访问wealthsimple.com/tldr。

The TLDR podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Incorporated and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corporation or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Incorporated does not endorse any third party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.