通过Polymarket实现更优生活

Polymarket 是一个允许你下注的平台，人们在这里押注的金额高达数十亿美元。

Polymarket is a platform that lets you place bets, and people are betting billions.

只需少量加密货币和一个梦想，你就可以赌美国何时会入侵委内瑞拉、 jets 比赛的结果，或者谁会成为下一任美联储主席。

All it takes is a low cryptocurrency and a dream, and you can gamble on when The US will invade Venezuela or the jets game or who's gonna be the next Fed chair.

随着投注的进行，赔率会不断变化。

The odds change as bets are placed.

那么，俄罗斯和乌克兰会在 2025 年宣布停火吗？

So will Russia and Ukraine declare a ceasefire in 2025?

大概不会。

Probably not.

目前，只有 6% 的投注者表示会停火。

Right now, only 6% of bettors say yes.

但如果普京和泽连斯基这个月成熟起来，那些押“会停火”的人将赢得大量资金。

But if Putin and Zelenskyy grow up this month, those yes bets are gonna win a lot of money.

弗拉基米尔和弗拉基米尔有潜力做出最有趣的事情。

Vladimir and Volodymyr have the potential to do the funniest thing.

我的意思是，他们不会，但如果他们真的这么做了呢？

I mean, they won't, but what if they did?

你想打个赌吗？

You wanna bet on it?

我们可以。

We can.

在过去的几个月里，特朗普总统放松了对Polymarket的限制。

In the last few months, president Trump relaxed restrictions on Polymarket.

谷歌宣布了合作，纽约证券交易所表示正在投资。

Google announced a partnership, and the New York Stock Exchange said it is investing.

接下来在《今日解析》中，让我们看看Polymarket的世界。

Coming up on Today Explained, it's Poly markets world.

每年，成千上万来自世界各地的人们涌向拉斯维加斯参加消费电子展，他们花上一周时间试图向彼此推销你这辈子见过的最古怪的电子产品。

Every year, hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world flock to Las Vegas for the consumer electronics show, and they spend a week trying to sell each other on the weirdest gadgets you've ever seen in your entire life.

本周在《The Vergecast》节目中，我们将全面探讨CES上的所有动态，从电视到人工智能设备，再到人人都希望有朝一日能帮你洗衣洗碗的类人机器人。

This week on the Vergecast, we're talking all about everything happening at CES, from the TVs to the AI gadgets to the humanoid robots that everybody is hoping might someday do your laundry and wash your dishes.

所有这些内容以及更多，请在您收听播客的平台收听《The Vergecast》。

All that and much more on the Vergecast wherever you get podcasts.

我们应当为2026年关注哪些全球十大风险？

What are the top 10 global risks we should be thinking about for 2026?

从长远来看，你正在把市场让给那些更擅长丛林法则的国家。

Long term, you are giving away the store to countries that operate more effectively in the law of the jungle.

我是普里特·巴拉拉。

I'm Preet Bharara.

本周，欧亚集团的创始人兼总裁伊恩·布雷默将与我一起讨论他的年度风险报告，以及我们如何理解美国对委内瑞拉的干预和尼古拉斯·马杜罗的被捕。

And this week, Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, joins me to discuss his annual risk report and how we can make sense of The US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

本集现已上线。

The episode is out now.

请搜索并关注您收听播客平台上的《Stay Tuned with Preet》。

Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.

今日解读。

Today explained.

珍·V。

Jen V.

艾克纳是《纽约杂志》的特稿作家，负责报道金融、加密货币和商业领域，她最近撰写了关于Polymarket创始人谢恩·科普兰的文章。

Etchner is a features writer at NY Mag who covers finance, crypto, business, and she recently wrote about the founder of Polymarket, One Shane Copeland.

所以谢恩现在26岁，或者可能27岁。

So Shane is, 26 or might be 27 now.

他从纽约大学退学了。

He dropped out of NYU.

他只在那里读了一个学期。

He was only there for a semester.

他出生并成长于纽约市，后来进入纽约大学，但只读了大约一个学期，甚至更短，就退学了，因为他决心成为一名企业家。

He grew up in New York City and then, went to NYU and was only there for about a semester, maybe less, when he dropped out because he was, so determined to become an entrepreneur.

他最终决定创建一种被称为预测市场的平台。

And he eventually settles on this idea to build what's called a prediction market.

在疫情期间，当纽约市的每个人都处于某种程度的隔离状态时，他把自己关在下东区的浴室里，开始开发这个网站。

And during the pandemic, when everyone in New York City is kind of, you know, isolated in a way, he holes up in his own bathroom on the Lower East Side and starts building this website.

人们可以互相争论，说‘你错了，这个那个’。

People can, you know, debate each other and be like, oh, you're wrong, this, this, that.

但真正能化解这些争论的方式，是让人们把自己的钱押在自己的观点上。

But the way that those that really dissipates is when you let people put their money where their mouth is.

如果你见到谢恩，他可能是你见过的最自信、最有把握的人。

Shane is someone who if you meet him, he's probably gonna be the most self confident and self assured person you ever met.

你知道吗，在早期，当人们问‘你打算怎么跟这些人竞争？’

You know, in the early days when people were like, how are you gonna compete against these people?

而现在，这根本就不是个问题了。

And, you know, now it's, like, not even a question.

所以，老实说，我们只是执行得更好。

So, you know, I think we've just out executed candidly.

他百分之百相信自己有潜力成为亿万富翁，而这一点最近已被证实。

Believing a 100% in his own potential to become a billionaire, which, you know, has recently proven true.

他痴迷地写下对马克·扎克伯格和特拉维斯·卡兰尼克等亿万富翁企业家的各种批注。

And he was obsessively writing, you know, kind of all of these annotations of people like Mark Zuckerberg and Travis Kalanick, these billionaire entrepreneurs.

他只是研究了他们，模仿他们，并下定决心成为这一类人中的下一个。

And he had just done you know, studied them and emulated them and sort of, you know, was just determined to be the next one of that class.

他带着这个抱负出发，从此一直坚持追随它。

And he set out with that ambition, and he has just kind of stuck to following it ever since.

好的。

Alright.

所以他聪明、非常聪明，有抱负，有自我，他决定要打造一个让你能做什么的东西？

So he has smarts, real smarts, ambition, ego, and he decides that he wants to build something that lets you do what exactly?

Polymarket 最初的目的是什么？

What was the purpose of Polymarket from the jump?

他说，他一直对预测市场着迷。

He says that, you know, he was obsessed with prediction markets.

这是人类目前最准确的东西，直到有人创造出某种超级水晶球。

It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball.

这在理论上，某种程度上，利用了群体的智慧，成为一种现代的神谕，你可以让人们就各种结果下注，无论是政治、体育还是其他领域。

Which, you know, kind of sort of, in theory anyway, harness the wisdom of the crowd to become this sort of modern oracle where you can ask people to bet on various outcomes, whether it's in politics or sports or something else.

你可以利用这种知识，带来这些投注结果，如果押对了，他们就能赢钱。

You can kind of harness, you know, this knowledge and to bring, you know, forth these betting outcomes, and then where they can actually win money if they're right.

我用这个市场来预测我认为近期内会发生的事情，比如体育、流行文化、政治，我还用它来赚点咖啡钱。

Market, and I use it to vote on anything I think is gonna happen in the near future, like sports, pop culture, politics, and I use it to get some coffee money.

让我点进去一个给你看看。

So let me click into one to show you

在Polymarket上，有个用户押了超过37,000美元。

So there's this whale on Polymarket who bet over $37,000.

他押的是杰罗姆·鲍威尔会在会议开始时说‘下午好’。

That Jerome Powell will start the meeting by saying good afternoon.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

就在那儿。

There it is.

给我举个例子，说明智慧在这种机制中是如何体现的，我们如何从宏观层面看到这种类似智能的表现。

Give me an example of where smarts play into this, how we see this at a macro scale being like a kind of intelligence.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我会说，这几乎就像是激发了公众的常识，最有可能发生的结局可能会让一些最聪明的评论员都忽略，因为他们根本不敢大声说出来。

So I would say it's almost like, you know, kind of it it kind of brings out the common sense of of people in the public, and the most likely outcome to happen that might elude, you know, some of the kind of smartest pundits pundits because they're just not willing to actually say it out loud.

这其实就是人们真正相信会发生什么？

It's sort of like, what do people really believe will happen?

这里有个很好的例子：如果你还记得拜登的第一次总统辩论，每个人在辩论结束后都立刻对拜登的年龄、他的执政能力感到担忧。

And so here's a good example is if you remember the first presidential debate with Biden, and everyone immediately leaves that debate, you know, very concerned about Biden's age, you know, his ability to govern.

刚一开始，拜登总统的声音就出现了颤抖。

Out of the gate, president Biden's voice faltered.

我们把它拿出来，然后

We brought out and then

这位81岁的老人说话声音很轻，好几次似乎都失去了思路。

The 81 year old spoke quietly and several times seemed to lose his trade of thought.

处理我们所有要做的事情，你看，如果我们最终能战胜医疗保险。

Dealing with everything we have to do with look, if we finally beat Medicare.

你当时

You were

在看CNN或读《纽约时报》。

watching CNN or reading the New York Times.

没有人真正认为，现任总统会在总统大选前几个月就退出竞选。

No one was actually thinking that could the current sitting president was about to drop out of the race just a few months before the presidential election.

得了吧，老兄。

Come on, man.

但如果你看了Polymarket，就会发现市场强烈倾向于他立即退出，这让很多人感到惊讶。

But if you looked at Polymarket, it was heavily leaning towards him dropping out right away, which surprised a lot of people.

而这一点，你知道的，最终成真了。

And that, you know, eventually came true.

Polymarket实际上，你知道，比主流媒体更早地捕捉到了这一消息，如果你把这算作新闻的话。

And Polymarket essentially, you know, kind of had that news a bit earlier, if you take that as news.

而且

And

这就是为什么Polymarket兴起的原因。

that is why Polymarket takes off.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

因此，这种势头在2024年大选前不断累积。

And so that kind of momentum builds and builds heading into the twenty twenty four election.

我们干脆现在就宣布选举结果吧，因为通过Polymarket，你可以预测会发生什么，目前支持率是63%对36%。

We might as well just call the election now because using Polymarket, you can predict what's gonna happen, and it's 63 to 36%.

所以我下载了这个应用。

So I downloaded the app.

我兴奋极了。

I'm giddy.

欢迎来到红色王国。

Welcome to the Red Kingdom.

如果你在选举夜查看Polymarket，人们当时还以为这是一场势均力敌的竞选。

If you looked at Polymarket during election night, I mean, people went into election night thinking that it was a fairly close race.

在选举结果正式公布前数小时，即使你观看CNN或其他新闻媒体、《纽约时报》，也会觉得局势还远未明朗。

Hours before the election was called, even while if you were to watch CNN, you know, or watch other news, The New York Times, the race was far from called.

Polymarket上特朗普的支持率已接近100%。

Polymarket had Donald Trump at almost a 100% Mhmm.

甚至在官方结果出来之前，就已经是这样了。

Much before, you know, the results were even in.

你在制作这个报道时，有下注吗？

When you were working on this piece, did you bet at all?

嗯，我确实下了注。

You know, I did.

我得偷偷摸摸地操作。

And I had to kinda be a little sneaky about it.

我需要亲自试一试，因为我觉得这看起来真的很复杂，光是谈论它也很难理解。

I needed to try it out for myself because I think, you know, it seems really complicated and, you know, talking about it.

你去做，一步步来，其实很简单。

You do it, you walk through it, it's pretty easy.

对我来说，唯一的问题是我身在美国，当时——甚至直到我们今天谈话时，Polymarket 对大多数美国交易者来说仍是不可用的。

The only thing for me was because I'm in The US and at the time, you know, and even today as we talk, Polymarket, you know, is not open for most US traders.

而当时，作为美国人，我参与这种投注确实是违法的。

And at the time, it certainly was illegal for me as a US person to be betting on that.

所以我不得不下载一个VPN，假装自己在西班牙登录，然后在网站上下了大约20美元的注，赌的都是一些荒唐的事情，比如：阿德里安·布罗迪会拿奥斯卡奖吗？

And so I had to download a VPN, basically log in as if I were in Spain, and then I, you know, traded like $20 on the website, and I was betting on, you know, silly things like, you know, is Adrian Brody gonna Oscar?

奥斯卡奖颁给了阿德里安·布罗迪。

And the Oscar goes to Adrien Brody.

但那很有趣，你知道，当你下注成功时，屏幕上会有一小阵彩纸喷洒出来。

But it was fun, know, and when you make a bet, there's like a little eruption of confetti on the screen.

而作为对这些我下注的事情其实一无所知的人，感觉这一切都特别不正经，纯粹就是图个乐子。

And, you know, as someone who doesn't have, I think, particular knowledge in sort of any of those things I was betting on, it felt just kind of, you know, very unserious and and for fun.

到此结束。

Wrapping up.

我来总结一下。

I will wrap up.

请把音乐关掉。

Please turn the music off.

我以前做过这个。

I've done this before.

谢谢。

Thank you.

但是，

But,

你知道，我认为人们会喜欢这个，因为其中有一种有趣的元素。

you know, it it's I think something that people will just enjoy because there is kind of this fun element to it.

你没赢很多钱吧？

And you did not win a ton of money?

没有。

No.

我觉得最后我什么也没赢到。

I don't think in the end I won anything.

我想，你知道，有那么一会儿，我手头大概多了两毛或四毛钱左右。

I think, you know, whether at some point, I was up like a 20¢ or 40¢ or something.

但后来，你知道，他们最终关闭了我的账户，因为我没有合法交易，而我告诉他们我确实进行过交易。

And then by the, you know, by the time I, well, they ended up shutting my account down because I wasn't trading legally, and I told them that I traded.

我当时输了，大概五毛钱左右吧。

I was, you know, I'd lost, like, 50¢ or something like that.

好吧。

Okay.

所以也没发生什么太糟糕的事。

So nothing too tragic.

跟我聊聊合法性的问题。

Talk to me about legality.

你一直在法律的边缘跳舞。

You danced on the edge of the law.

Polymarket 是如何以及为何在这个国家陷入法律麻烦的？

How and why did Polymarket run into legal trouble in this country?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，你知道，在他们2020年上线后，没过多久，商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）就开始对他们展开调查，这是因为像CalSheet这样的公司，如果要在美国内提供这类预测市场，就必须向CFTC申请许可，并且仍受诸多限制。

So, you know, after they launched in 2020, it didn't take very long, you know, for the CFTC, which is the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, to begin investigating them, which is because, you know, companies like CalSheet that have been able to offer these types of prediction markets in The US had to go and get a license through the CFTC and are still subject to a lot of limitations.

Polymarket 没有这么做。

Polymarket didn't do that.

他们直接就说：看吧。

They just went ahead and said, look.

我们是一个去中心化的区块链平台。

We're a decentralized blockchain platform.

谢恩只是在下东区的浴室里上线了，就让人们来交易。

You know, Shane's in his bathroom in the Lower East Side just went live and just let people trade on it.

而CFTC则说：你们不能这么做。

And the CFTC, you know, said, you know, you can't do that.

你不能就这样随便推出一个东西，这不合法。

You can't just, you know, go ahead and and and, you know, make something available without you know, that's not legal.

我和谢恩谈过这件事，基本上，他们就是直接干了。

And I've talked to Shane about it, basically, they just went for it.

他们说，求原谅比求许可更好。

They said, you know, better to ask forgiveness than permission.

人们说违法，就像法律？

People say breaking the law, it's like, law?

你知道的？

You know?

所以，如果非要说的话，这是不相容的。

So if anything, it's incompatible.

因此，他们最终支付了140万美元与CFTC达成和解。

And as a result, they ended up paying $1,400,000 to settle with the CFTC.

但根据这项协议，他们还承诺不再允许美国交易者参与。

But part of that agreement through that agreement, they also had to promise that they would not allow US traders.

所以他们可以在美国运营，但只被允许让非美国居民进行交易，这就是为什么我们看到了大量使用VPN的规避方式——如果你在美国交易，就得假装自己不住在美国。

So they could operate from The US, but they were only allowed to let people trade, who did not live in The US, which is why we got, you know, all these VPN workarounds where you kinda had to pretend that you didn't live in The US if you were trading from The US.

你知道吗？

You know?

在经历了好几年这种被不断侵蚀的情况后，特朗普政府上台后表示：‘这为什么是非法的？’

And so after several years of that where they had so many people, like, getting eroded in this way, the Trump administration came in after winning saying, you know, like, why is this even illegal?

人们显然想要这个。

People obviously want this.

对它的需求非常大。

There's huge demand for it.

他们放宽了限制，Polymarket 在今年早些时候达成了协议，为在美国重新运营铺平了道路。

They relaxed the restrictions, and Polymarket was able to reach an agreement later earlier this year that cleared the way for them to operate again in The US.

在明确 Polymarket 将获准在美国上线后，纽约证券交易所的母公司洲际交易所向 Polymarket 投资了 20 亿美元，哇。

After it became clear that Polymarket was going to be cleared for launching in The US, you saw the Intercontinental Exchange, which is the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, invest $2,000,000,000 into Polymarket Wow.

这被广泛视为。

Which was, you know, widely seen.

这使得该公司估值达到80亿美元，这一举动被广泛视为为美国上线后即将迎来的巨大需求做准备。

That values the company at $8,000,000,000, and that's widely seen, you know, as a move preparing for the huge increased demand that's going to come from this US launch.

我认为有很多人之前并不愿意绕过法律来使用这个平台。

And I think you just have a lot of people who, you know, weren't willing to kind of circumvent the law to use this.

但现在如果你说，哦，这是合法的。

But now if you're saying, oh, it's legal.

没问题。

It's fine.

我们可以做这件事。

We can do this.

这没有任何非法之处。

There's nothing illicit about it.

这将吸引大量美国用户前来交易，因为显然，美国是世界上最大的金融市场。

That's going to bring a huge market of people in The US who want to trade on it because, obviously, The US, you know, is the biggest financial market in the world.

纽约杂志的珍·维希纳。

Jen Viechner of New York Magazine.

接下来，博彩业席卷了体育界，这让很多人感到合理担忧。

Coming up, betting took over sports, and that made a lot of people justifiably nervous.

现在，它正在渗透政治领域。

Now it is taking over politics.

你能想象如果这事搞砸了会怎样吗？

Can you even imagine what happens if this goes wrong?

本期节目由GiveWell赞助。

Support for today's show comes from GiveWell.

GiveWell表示，要了解哪些非营利组织对人们的生活影响最大并不容易。

It can be hard to know which nonprofits have the most impact on people's lives, says GiveWell.

因此，GiveWell专注于衡量影响力。

That's why GiveWell focuses on measuring impact.

GiveWell自称是一个独立的资源，提供关于优质捐赠机会的透明研究。

GiveWell says it is an independent resource that offers transparent research about great giving opportunities.

GiveWell已存在十八年，致力于研究全球健康与扶贫问题，并表示只将其资金导向他们发现的最具影响力的机会。

GiveWell's been around for eighteen years researching global health and poverty alleviation and says it only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities that they found.

他们表示，为了帮助捐赠者资助高效的成本效益项目，拯救和改善生命，并让每一分钱发挥最大效用，他们已投入了七万多个小时的研究。

They say they've spent more than seventy thousand hours on research to help donors fund highly cost effective programs that save or improve lives and ring the most out of your every dollar.

因此，当你捐赠慈善机构时，可以查看GiveWell。

So when you're giving to charity, you can check out GiveWell.

这是一个独立的资源，提供严谨且透明的研究。

It's an independent resource for rigorous, transparent research.

要进行可抵税的捐赠，请访问 givewell.org，选择播客选项，并在结账时输入 Today Explained。

To make a tax deductible donation today, go to givewell.org and pick podcast and enter Today Explained at checkout.

请确保他们知道你是从《Today Explained》了解到GiveWell的。

Make sure that they know you heard about GiveWell from Today Explained.

再次提醒，访问 givewell.org 进行捐赠或了解更多信息。

Again, that's givewell.org to donate or to find out more.

本节目由Boxycat赞助。

Support for the show comes from Boxycat.

养猫在家有很多令人喜爱的地方，但有一件事即使是狂热的猫奴也想避免——臭烘烘的猫砂盆。

There's a lot to love about having a cat in your home, but there's one thing that even the most ardent cat lover could do without, stinky litter boxes.

Boxy表示他们可以提供帮助。

Boxy says that they can help.

Boxy希望成为你用过的最后一款猫砂。

Boxy wants to be the last kitty litter you ever try.

他们说，秘诀在于其配方，其中含有益生菌，可以抑制产生异味的细菌。

They say the difference is in their formula, which includes probiotics that can stop bacteria that cause odors.

此外，Boxy称其结块能力更出色，更容易清理，让你的猫砂盆在不使用任何人工香精的情况下也能减少异味。

Plus, Boxy says their clumping power is superior, making it easier to scoop so your litter box could be less stinky without any of the fake fragrances.

接下来让我们有请我们的同事安德鲁·马尔尼齐克来详细介绍。

Here's our colleague, Andrew Malnizik, to tell us more.

我姐姐就是那位猫妈妈。

So my sister is that cat mom.

她把猫称作她的孩子。

She calls them her children.

所以当她要为猫尝试任何新东西时，她都非常怀疑，总是有点犹豫。

So when it comes to trying anything new for them, she's incredibly skeptic and always a little hesitant.

这就是为什么听到她非常喜欢Boxy的猫砂时，我感到非常兴奋。

That's why I was so excited to hear that she was really enjoying Boxy's cat litter.

她最先注意到的是，猫咪们在转换猫砂时完全没有问题。

The first thing she noticed, there was just zero issues transitioning to cats.

它们没有闹脾气，你知道的，猫咪有时候会抗拒，有点小脾气。

There was no drama from them, which, you know, cats can kind of push back and be a little bit drama.

这简直是个奇迹。

It was really a miracle.

如果你厌倦了不断换猫砂，想找一款终极产品，就去boxiecat.com购买Boxy吧。

If you're tired of switching litters, looking for the one, get boxy at boxiecat.com.

这是你最后一次需要更换的猫砂。

It's the last litter you'll switch to.

使用代码explained在boxycat.com享受30%折扣。

Enjoy 30% off with code explained at boxycat.com/explained.

网址是boxiecat.com/explained。

That's boxiecat.com forward slash explained.

今天的节目由Udacity赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Udacity.

关于人工智能，尤其是在职场中的应用，已经有很多讨论，包括在《今日解析》中。

Much has been said, including on Today Explained, about AI, especially in the workplace.

无论你从事哪个行业，人工智能都可能让人感到令人畏惧。

AI can feel intimidating no matter what industry you're in.

Udacity表示，这就是Udacity发挥作用的地方。

That's where Udacity comes in, says Udacity.

Udacity是一个在线学习平台，提供人工智能和科技、生成式人工智能、代理式人工智能、Python、数据科学等众多课程。

Udacity is an online learning platform with courses in AI and tech, generative AI, agentic AI, Python, data science, so much more.

当你在Udacity学习时，你不仅仅是被动地观看视频或阅读文章。

When you learn with Udacity, you're not just passively watching videos or reading articles.

你是在进行实践练习和项目，为实现你理想的工作做准备。

You're doing practical exercises and projects that prepare you for the job you want.

因此，根据Udacity的调查，90%的Udacity毕业生表示他们实现了入学目标。

That's why ninety percent of Udacity graduates, according to Udacity surveyed, say they achieved their enrollment goal.

Udacity 还刚刚推出了人工智能硕士学位。

Udacity also just launched a master's degree in AI.

科技领域不断发展，你也应该如此，Udacity 如是说。

The tech field is always evolving, and you should be too, says Udacity.

你可以免费试用 Udacity 七天，无风险。

You can try Udacity risk free for seven days.

你可以访问 udacity.com/explained，并使用代码 explained 享受订单 40% 折扣。

You can head to udacity.com/ explained and use the code explained for 40% off your order.

再次提醒，访问 udacity.com/explained 享受 40% 折扣，并确保使用促销代码 explained，以便他们知道是我们推荐的。

Once again, that's udacity.com/explained for 40% off, and make sure you use the promo code explained so they know we sent you.

这是人类目前最准确的东西，直到有人创造出更好的。

It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates

Today Explained。

Today Explained.

我叫约翰·赫尔曼，是《纽约杂志》的科技专栏作家。

My name is John Herman, and I'm the tech columnist at New York Magazine.

如果我们能接受赌马、赌足球比赛，那为什么赌选举——这种在Polymarket上变得非常突出的行为——会让我们如此反感呢？

If we're okay with betting on horses, betting on football games, why does betting on elections, something that became really prominent on Polymarket, why does that skeeve us out so much?

我的意思是，这是个好问题。

I mean, it's a good question.

如果我们回溯一下体育博彩，尤其是在线博彩如何主导体育媒体，早期确实有很多不安情绪。

If we think back to the way that sports betting, online in particular sort of took over sports media, there was a lot of squeamishness early on.

因此，这些媒体机构会说：好吧。

And so you had these media outlets being like, alright.

我们需要对这种赌博行为保持谨慎。

We need to be careful with this gambling thing.

这真的会污染体育精神，让比赛不再关乎体育道德和球队胜利。

This is really gonna contaminate sports, where it's not about sportsmanship and your team winning.

而是会变得只关乎金钱。

It's it's gonna be about the money.

是的。

Yeah.

你能从他们的痛苦和不幸中获利。

You'll be able to profit off of, you know, their pain and misery.

大家担心的是比赛的公正性。

It's the integrity of the game that everyone's worried about.

嗯，

Well,

透明度

the transparency

这有点肮脏。

This is sort of, like, grimy.

它让你想到赛马场，那些可怜的老男人，花掉全家的钱。

It makes you think of the track, you know, and and sad old men, you know, spending all their family's money.

这可能花了五年才被打破，十年才变得毫无意义。

That took maybe five years to break and ten years to be completely meaningless.

而这种情况是我们对比赛下注时发生的。

And that's in a situation where we're betting on games.

我们在体育赛事上下注。

We're betting on sports.

我们在下注一些并非生死攸关的事情，这些事情不像现在在Polymarket或Kalshi上可以下注的类型，比如未来六个月会有多少人被驱逐出境。

We're betting on things that aren't life or death, that aren't, you know, the types of things you can bet on now on on Polymarket or Kalshi, like how many people will be deported in the next six months.

几十年来，政治一直被用作评判他人消费行为的一种方式，比如说：哦，你把这当成一场赛马，或者你表现得像在追星，甚至可能，你对政治的态度有点狂热之类。

With politics, for decades, it has been a way to sort of judge other people's consumption to say, oh, well, you're treating this like a horse race, or, you are behaving as though you're in a fandom, or maybe even, you know, you're you're being cultish about your politics or something like that.

在特朗普的崇拜中，一切都围绕着MAGA、风暴、假新闻、深层政府等等。

In the the cult of Trump, it's all about MAGA and the storm and fake news, the deep state, etcetera.

这一切背后的氛围就是，啊。

The vibe behind it all is just, ah.

政治粉丝文化是有毒的。

Politics fandom is toxic.

没错。

Right.

所以我认为，有很多人看待他们的政治立场，就像他们看待自己的足球队一样。

And so I think that you have a lot of these people who are actually looking at their politics like they look at their football team.

人们担心道德问题，因为这正是我们主要用来塑造周围世界并将其投入博彩的方式。

There's concern about virtue, because, you know, this is the way that we primarily are supposed to be making the world around us and giving that to betting.

这不是我认为人们会说他们想要的世界。

It's not the world that I think people would say they want.

更明显的是，这里存在令人难以置信的腐败机会。

More obviously, you have just unbelievable opportunities for corruption here.

比如，如果你今天浏览Calci，仅在政治领域，就有

Like, if you scroll through Calci today, in politics alone, have

特朗普会被弹劾吗？

Will Trump be impeached?

特朗普会公布任何爱泼斯坦的文件吗？

Will Trump release any of the Epstein files?

谁会第一个离开特朗普内阁？

Who will be the first to leave the Trump cabinet?

有些事情确实尚无定论。

Some of these things are genuinely up in the air.

其他一些事情是世界上的人们都知道的。

Others are things that people in the world know about.

这些对于一个对腐败感兴趣的人来说，简直就是目标丰富的环境，很难相信这样的情况不会发生。

These are all just such a target rich environment for someone who is, let's say, corruption curious, that it's it's hard to believe that it wouldn't go there.

好的。

Okay.

所以，我有个问题要问你。

So here's my question to you.

我很高兴回答这个问题的是你而不是我，因为我的脑海里已经想到了一些非常黑暗的场景。

And I'm glad you're the one answering it and not me because my head went to some very dark places.

如果我们考虑一下，比如对总统选举下注可能出问题的方式，最坏的情况会是什么？

If we think about the ways in which betting on, let's say, a presidential election could go sideways, What is a worst case scenario?

总统选举是平台的一个很好的例子，因为它充满了人。

The presidential election is is a good example for the platforms because it is full of people.

很难扭曲。

It's hard to distort.

这里有大量的资金。

There's a ton of money.

但除了下注可能不公平这一前景之外，最近的选举还呈现出一种完全不同的政治参与方式。

But beyond just the the prospect of, you know, the bets not being fair, you have a vision in recent elections of a completely different type of engagement in politics.

有些人已经脱离了民主进程，转而参与市场机制。

You have people who have basically removed themselves from the democratic process to engage instead a market process.

这把每个人变成了投机者，而不是选民。

It turns everyone into speculator rather than a voter.

我认为，在政治中，我们担心会影响选举的负面因素，比如人们获取错误信息、受不良冲动驱使、过于部落化——这些都是媒体中反复讨论的种种问题。

I think in politics the types of things that we worry about affecting elections in negative ways are people like getting bad information, people following bad impulses, people being too tribal, like all the types of things that you hear talked over forever and ever in media.

在一个人们只是试图预测谁会赢的世界里，每个人不仅成了投机者，还成了评论员。

A world in which people are just trying to figure out who's going to win makes everyone into not just a speculator, but a pundit.

这使他们脱离了这一将对世界运作方式产生巨大影响的决策过程。

It sort of takes them out of this decision that will have a massive effect on how the world works.

它可能用一种类似阅读财经新闻、了解期权交易之类的方式，取代了人们通过媒体和社会互动参与选举和政治的诸多同样有问题的方式。

And it potentially just like, you know, replaces a lot of the also problematic ways that they interact with elections and politics through media and through social engagement with something that is just like reading the financial news or like reading about options calls or something like that.

这是一种完全抽象的政治参与方式。

It's just a completely abstract way to engage with politics.

在我看来，如果足够多的人这么做，这就相当于一种退出政治的行为。

And to me, it represents, if enough people do it, kind of an exit from politics.

黑暗的场景。

The the dark scenario.

这就是我的想法。

Here's where my brain went.

你告诉我，我是不是疯了。

Tell me if I'm being nuts.

有人有机会赢得一千万美元，条件是一个候选人被暗杀。

Someone has the opportunity to win $10,000,000 if a candidate is assassinated.

这存在着去做一件极其恶劣之事的巨大动机。

There's an enormous incentive to do a very bad thing.

这实际上是预测市场早期的一个基础概念，当时人们设想并设计了各种方式，让预测市场明确地充当暗杀市场。

That's actually one of the early, like, foundational concepts of prediction markets, where people were were sort of imagining and and and contriving ways where a prediction market might be set up to function explicitly as an assassination market.

这确实是一个有趣的思维实验，它真的会奏效。

And it it was an interesting thought experiment, like it would work.

现在，现实中的这些平台都禁止这种行为。

Now these actual platforms in the world have prohibitions on that.

但没错，我认为在我们所处的世界里，有人为了让自己在Polymarket或Calshy的赌注中如愿以偿，而刻意制造事件，这是完全有可能的。

But yeah, I think it's completely plausible in the world we live in that, someone might manifest events in order to settle a polymarket or a Calshy bet in the way that they want.

我们或许应该为这样一个世界做好准备：就像体育赛事一样，人们几乎无法不通过讨论赔率、投注结果等方式来关注或谈论它。

We should probably prepare for a world where much in the way that sports has become nearly impossible to follow or talk about without talking in this sort of meta way about odds, betting outcomes, etcetera.

政治也会开始让人有这种感觉。

Politics will will start to feel like that.

我想问问你关于体育的事，因为我们刚做了一期关于让利投注的节目。

I'd like to ask you about sports because we just did an episode about prop betting.

我们谈到，当粉丝们一再得知这些投注丑闻时，他们对这项运动的信任开始瓦解。

And we talked about how fans are saying that when they learn about these betting scandals again and again and again, their trust in the sport starts to erode.

他们开始怀疑：现在还有人真的在打棒球吗？还是所有人都在假装打棒球？

They start to say, is anybody actually playing baseball these days, or is everyone faking baseball these days?

我认为，如果人们对体育失去信任，那么如果我们对选举下注，几年内就可能看到人们对选举结果失去信心。

I think if people are losing trust in sports, it seems possible that if we bet on elections, we could be looking within a couple of years at people losing faith in the outcome of elections.

这是一个合理的担忧吗？

Is that a viable worry?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你提到的有几件非常有趣的事情。

I mean, there are a couple really interesting things that you bring up there.

比如，如果你支持的候选人输掉了选举，你可能会感到沮丧。

One is that if your candidate, for example, loses an election, you might be crestfallen.

你可能会感到害怕。

You might be scared.

你可能会对将来感到担忧。

You might be worried for the future.

但这些感受都和在赌注上输掉一大笔钱的感觉完全不同。

But none of those sensations are quite the same as losing a bunch of money on a bet.

就像，它们并不是那种感觉。

Like, they're not they're not Yeah.

不会以同样的方式让人感到羞辱。

Humiliating in the same way.

它们也不会以同样的方式让你与你所下注的事物疏离。

They don't alienate you from the thing that you're betting on in the same way.

这是一种与政治互动的新形式。

That is a new flavor of interaction with politics.

我不会说政治整体，尤其是美国的选举政治，是一个信任度很高的环境，但进一步失去对这一过程的信任，我的意思是，我不知道还能低到哪里去，但似乎我们正在寻找一种方式，而有人可能从中赚了大钱。

I wouldn't say that politics in general, and certainly, like, American electoral politics is like a trust rich environment, but losing even more trust in the process, is like I mean, where I I don't know how much lower you can go, but it seems like we're trying to find a way and someone is is maybe making a lot of money on it.

想想你认识的那些最狂热的新闻爱好者。

Think about, like, the biggest news junkies you know.

现在想象有一群规模相似的人，但他们只关心投注。

Now imagine a similarly sized group of people, but it's all about bets.

他们是的。

They are Yeah.

疯狂地试图以一种刷信息流的人早已在做的事情的方式解决问题，但他们是在赌上身家的前提下进行的。

Frantically trying to settle something in the way that someone scrolling a feed endlessly might be doing already, but they're they're doing it with skin in the game.

他们这么做是基于一种信念，认为自己知道一些别人不知道的事情，或者了解别人不了解的他人情况。

They're doing it with, you know, the belief that they might know something other people don't or that they know something about other people that other people don't.

这是一种高度专注的政治参与形式，并被封装成了一种商业模式。

It is it is that, like, hyper focused, engagement with politics captured in in a business.

等等。

But wait.

但你真的让我在想，这会不会有什么好处。

But I do you are actually making me wonder if there is an upside to this.

我要说，约翰，是你做到了这一点。

And I will say, John, you did this.

你让我有了这种想法。

You did this to me.

所以，我一生中看到的政治问题之一就是人们缺乏参与感。

So the thing one of the problems that we've seen in politics my entire lifetime is that people are not engaged.

如果我们让人们押注选举，从而让他们更积极参与，这会不会有积极的一面？

Is there an upside here if we're letting people bet on elections that they become more engaged?

我有点能理解这种观点，但我认为赌博总体上并不是一种能引向其他事物的途径。

I could I could sort of see that, but I don't think that gambling in general is the type of thing that is like a gateway to other stuff.

我认为通常情况下，其他事物才是通往赌博的入口。

I think generally things are gateways to gambling.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我不想投入太多，但我确实想明确指出，预测市场作为世界上一种额外的信息来源，非常有趣且有用。

I don't want to invest too much But I do want to make sure that we mention, upfront here that prediction markets as just like an additional source of information in the world are really interesting and I think useful.

我会为预测市场作为信息的有效聚合工具辩护。

Like I will make a case for prediction markets as good aggregators of information.

我认为它还让人们可以对比自己在投票和下注时的不同立场。

And I think it also allows people to sort of check out where you are on one hand voting and on the other betting.

这两者是互补的吗？

Are these things complementary?

它们是相互协同的吗？还是怎样？

Do they synergize or whatever?

还是它们彼此之间存在矛盾？

Or are they kind of at odds with one another?

我认为完全有可能想象它们之间会存在矛盾。

And I I think it's very possible to imagine that they could be at odds.

特朗普阵营、围绕总统的那些人，他们非常喜欢这些东西。

Trump world, the people who surround the president, they absolutely love this stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

我看到有报道称，唐纳德·小特朗普正在为Kalshi和Polymarket提供建议。

Don Junior is advising both Kalshi and Polymarket, I've seen reported.

你认为预测市场在这届政府中将发挥什么作用？

What role do you think prediction markets are gonna play in this administration?

你认为预测市场在这届政府中发挥作用意味着什么？

And what do you think it means that they're playing a role in this administration?

我认为，特朗普政府与非公开信息、交易、市场以及普遍的腐败之间的关系，是许多人所担忧的问题。

I do think that the Trump administration's relationship to, you know, nonpublic information and and trading and markets and just, you know, corruption in general is something that I'll say a lot of people are concerned about.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，没错。

And so Yeah.

如果你是那个拥有 arguably 全世界最多非公开重要信息的家庭成员，并且你正竭尽全力以各种方式赚取尽可能多的钱，那么在这种情况下，利用你已知结果的信息进行投注基本上并不违法。

You know, if you are in the family that has arguably more nonpublic, you know, important information than any other family in the world and you are doing everything you can to make as much money as possible, in a variety of ways, here is a situation where it's basically not illegal to bet on something where you know the outcome.

这简直就是你的优势。

Like, that's just your advantage.

不久前，我相信彭博社的马特·莱文或他的某位同事曾指出一件事：在财报电话会议结束时，Coinbase 的首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗开玩笑说，他一直在关注预测市场。

And like there was a great thing that I believe Matt Levine at Bloomberg or maybe one of his colleagues at Bloomberg pointed out a little while ago, which is that at the end of an earnings call, Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, jokes that he had been following the prediction markets.

我有点分心了，因为我一直在追踪关于 Coinbase 下一次财报电话会议将说什么的预测市场。

I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.

当时，人们正在对他在财报电话会议上会说什么或不会说什么下注。

At the time, there were bets about what he would or wouldn't say on the earnings call.

他会提到Web3吗？

Would he say Web three?

他会提到比特币吗？

Would he say Bitcoin?

所以他说到通话的最后。

And so he gets to the end of the call.

他说：

He says

在这里加上比特币、以太坊、区块链、质押和Web3，确保我们在通话结束前提到这些词。

Add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web three to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.

这只是一个笑话。

Like, it's a joke.

对他来说，这就像个笑话。

It is like a joke to him.

是的。

Yeah.

他可不是普通人。

And he's not just some guy.

他经营着一家大公司。

He runs a huge company.

他身处其中。

He is in the mix.

他简直在和我们刚才提到的那些人握手寒暄。

He is, like, shaking hands with the people we were just talking about.

这感觉就像是整个体系的一部分，你知道的。

It just feels very much like part of the suite, you know

是的。

Yeah.

在很多方面，这都非常直观，带有文化和政治色彩，但说到底，这不就是唐纳德·特朗普本人所在的家族吗？

In ways that are that are, very intuitive, sort of cultural and political, but also just, like, wouldn't I mean, this is a family that has, Donald Trump himself.

你知道的？

You know?